Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 231 114-114-3 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 751 361-384-6 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4237 2092-2056-89 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1898 972-885-41 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1739 891-813-35 52.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 680 377-295-8 56.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 777 399-368-10 52.0%
Total 10313 5206-4915-192 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 320 169-143-8 54.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1004 496-489-19 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6496 3222-3148-126 50.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 3690 1855-1743-92 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 5373 2654-2589-130 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 600 287-294-19 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 306 143-156-7 47.8%
Total 17789 8826-8562-401 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 150 73-73-4 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 441 220-212-9 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2933 1448-1439-46 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1972 960-969-43 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3369 1628-1671-70 49.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 520 268-244-8 52.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 153 75-77-1 49.3%
Total 9538 4672-4685-181 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 125 61-63-1 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 347 182-159-6 53.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2285 1073-1170-42 47.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1556 754-758-44 49.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3052 1466-1523-63 49.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 580 292-277-11 51.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 215 104-105-6 49.8%
Total 8160 3932-4055-173 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 242 117-123-2 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 441 219-214-8 50.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2089 994-1054-41 48.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1801 891-877-33 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2865 1384-1427-54 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 712 348-349-15 49.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 316 146-166-4 46.8%
Total 8466 4099-4210-157 49.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.