Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 237 116-118-3 49.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 788 375-407-6 48.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4500 2211-2193-96 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2039 1046-949-44 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1834 935-862-37 52.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 722 395-317-10 55.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 825 422-392-11 51.8%
Total 10945 5500-5238-207 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 324 169-147-8 53.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1042 516-507-19 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6854 3390-3330-134 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 3942 1979-1863-100 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 5695 2811-2749-135 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 629 302-308-19 49.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 314 147-160-7 47.9%
Total 18800 9314-9064-422 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 151 73-74-4 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 456 227-220-9 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3076 1524-1504-48 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2101 1022-1034-45 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3537 1702-1760-75 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 534 277-249-8 52.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 158 78-79-1 49.7%
Total 10013 4903-4920-190 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 132 64-67-1 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 359 186-167-6 52.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2400 1126-1229-45 47.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1651 800-806-45 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3197 1531-1600-66 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 604 298-294-12 50.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 224 111-107-6 50.9%
Total 8567 4116-4270-181 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 242 117-123-2 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 445 222-215-8 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2160 1014-1104-42 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1850 907-908-35 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2944 1415-1473-56 49.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 736 356-364-16 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 319 148-167-4 47.0%
Total 8696 4179-4354-163 49.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.