Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 385 193-183-9 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1244 601-627-16 48.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6338 3121-3086-131 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 3185 1592-1532-61 51.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2581 1296-1235-50 51.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1043 534-490-19 52.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 1304 656-632-16 50.9%
Total 16080 7993-7785-302 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 484 245-230-9 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1595 808-766-21 51.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 9468 4653-4625-190 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 5605 2803-2699-103 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 7807 3850-3800-157 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 951 452-473-26 48.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 444 218-216-10 50.2%
Total 26354 13029-12809-516 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 259 124-131-4 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 727 363-352-12 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4280 2095-2119-66 49.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2966 1427-1477-62 49.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4767 2354-2322-91 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 763 385-361-17 51.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 252 126-121-5 51.0%
Total 14014 6874-6883-257 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 252 114-136-2 45.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 579 303-266-10 53.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3300 1547-1699-54 47.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2315 1120-1148-47 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4115 1973-2063-79 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 820 414-389-17 51.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 313 153-152-8 50.2%
Total 11694 5624-5853-217 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 631 326-299-6 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 843 407-419-17 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3194 1503-1634-57 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2696 1286-1358-52 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3902 1869-1969-64 48.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1018 498-505-15 49.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 481 240-235-6 50.5%
Total 12765 6129-6419-217 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.