Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 264 131-129-4 50.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 861 415-436-10 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4840 2369-2366-105 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2337 1191-1096-50 52.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1959 995-930-34 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 781 415-352-14 54.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 912 469-434-9 51.9%
Total 11954 5985-5743-226 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 354 186-160-8 53.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1153 573-562-18 50.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 7279 3596-3533-150 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 4392 2209-2091-92 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 6040 2968-2941-131 50.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 687 334-333-20 50.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 362 171-181-10 48.6%
Total 20267 10037-9801-429 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 175 86-86-3 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 514 262-244-8 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3284 1623-1605-56 50.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2385 1154-1178-53 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3776 1828-1874-74 49.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 596 307-274-15 52.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 177 85-89-3 48.9%
Total 10907 5345-5350-212 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 163 77-84-2 47.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 394 206-180-8 53.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2558 1197-1316-45 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1891 908-943-40 49.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3389 1628-1689-72 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 651 316-321-14 49.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 248 118-122-8 49.2%
Total 9294 4450-4655-189 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 312 159-151-2 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 539 261-265-13 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2369 1106-1218-45 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2332 1104-1181-47 48.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3157 1518-1583-56 49.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 822 395-414-13 48.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 378 185-188-5 49.6%
Total 9909 4728-5000-181 48.6%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.