Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 209 104-102-3 50.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 693 336-352-5 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4060 2009-1967-84 50.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1831 934-857-40 52.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1685 863-789-33 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 649 359-282-8 56.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 701 362-330-9 52.3%
Total 9828 4967-4679-182 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 294 158-129-7 55.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 937 460-458-19 50.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6261 3098-3040-123 50.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 3593 1805-1698-90 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 5164 2557-2480-127 50.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 562 268-276-18 49.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 274 125-142-7 46.8%
Total 17085 8471-8223-391 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 132 63-65-4 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 416 211-196-9 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2827 1391-1391-45 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1920 934-944-42 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3219 1551-1601-67 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 489 256-226-7 53.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 133 64-68-1 48.5%
Total 9136 4470-4491-175 49.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 116 60-55-1 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 320 163-151-6 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2166 1007-1120-39 47.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1496 726-727-43 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2929 1399-1467-63 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 538 273-256-9 51.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 193 91-98-4 48.1%
Total 7758 3719-3874-165 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 205 104-99-2 51.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 370 185-179-6 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1928 920-972-36 48.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1706 845-828-33 50.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2688 1313-1325-50 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 645 310-320-15 49.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 277 130-144-3 47.4%
Total 7819 3807-3867-145 49.6%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.