Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 383 192-182-9 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1225 593-616-16 49.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6232 3075-3026-131 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 3023 1521-1443-59 51.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2509 1261-1198-50 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1029 526-484-19 52.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 1240 626-598-16 51.1%
Total 15641 7794-7547-300 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 480 244-227-9 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1553 786-746-21 51.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 9341 4592-4560-189 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 5438 2725-2610-103 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 7646 3761-3728-157 50.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 906 426-454-26 48.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 438 214-214-10 50.0%
Total 25802 12748-12539-515 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 258 124-130-4 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 712 354-346-12 50.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 4230 2070-2094-66 49.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2875 1382-1432-61 49.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4679 2314-2274-91 50.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 743 376-350-17 51.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 246 121-120-5 50.2%
Total 13743 6741-6746-256 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 249 114-133-2 46.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 567 298-259-10 53.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3255 1526-1675-54 47.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2257 1096-1114-47 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4058 1947-2032-79 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 806 408-381-17 51.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 312 152-152-8 50.0%
Total 11504 5541-5746-217 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 630 326-298-6 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 838 405-416-17 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3168 1486-1625-57 47.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2671 1274-1345-52 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3858 1846-1949-63 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1011 493-503-15 49.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 477 239-232-6 50.7%
Total 12653 6069-6368-216 48.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.