Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 318 158-154-6 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1038 506-518-14 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 5498 2698-2686-114 50.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2632 1336-1242-54 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2156 1095-1020-41 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 884 460-410-14 52.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 1074 548-514-12 51.6%
Total 13600 6801-6544-255 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 418 216-193-9 52.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1337 674-643-20 51.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 8245 4057-4019-169 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 4858 2448-2312-98 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 6758 3325-3288-145 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 771 374-374-23 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 389 188-191-10 49.6%
Total 22776 11282-11020-474 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 214 105-105-4 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 591 299-280-12 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3697 1825-1811-61 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2594 1258-1280-56 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4175 2053-2041-81 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 669 338-316-15 51.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 214 106-105-3 50.2%
Total 12154 5984-5938-232 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 195 90-103-2 46.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 466 247-211-8 53.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2856 1344-1464-48 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2061 996-1022-43 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3683 1785-1822-76 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 725 363-347-15 51.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 283 135-140-8 49.1%
Total 10269 4960-5109-200 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 420 218-197-5 52.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 635 307-314-14 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2664 1245-1369-50 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2446 1159-1237-50 48.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3408 1640-1711-57 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 876 424-438-14 49.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 417 203-208-6 49.4%
Total 10866 5196-5474-196 48.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.