Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 318 158-154-6 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1036 506-516-14 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 5490 2693-2683-114 50.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2629 1336-1239-54 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2151 1093-1017-41 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 884 460-410-14 52.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 1069 547-510-12 51.8%
Total 13577 6793-6529-255 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 418 216-193-9 52.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1333 671-642-20 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 8219 4044-4006-169 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 4852 2444-2310-98 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 6747 3319-3283-145 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 771 374-374-23 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 389 188-191-10 49.6%
Total 22729 11256-10999-474 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 214 105-105-4 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 591 299-280-12 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3691 1823-1807-61 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2590 1256-1278-56 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 4166 2048-2037-81 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 668 338-315-15 51.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 214 106-105-3 50.2%
Total 12134 5975-5927-232 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 195 90-103-2 46.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 465 246-211-8 53.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2851 1341-1462-48 47.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2060 995-1022-43 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3675 1780-1819-76 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 723 361-347-15 51.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 281 134-139-8 49.1%
Total 10250 4947-5103-200 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 418 216-197-5 52.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 634 306-314-14 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2661 1243-1368-50 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2446 1159-1237-50 48.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3406 1638-1711-57 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 876 424-438-14 49.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 417 203-208-6 49.4%
Total 10858 5189-5473-196 48.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.