Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 289 145-140-4 50.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 931 449-469-13 48.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 5113 2503-2502-108 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2456 1248-1155-53 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2032 1032-964-36 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 836 436-386-14 53.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 998 513-476-9 51.9%
Total 12655 6326-6092-237 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 386 205-173-8 54.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 1238 616-603-19 50.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 7651 3764-3727-160 50.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 4566 2306-2166-94 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 6326 3108-3081-137 50.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 724 354-348-22 50.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 374 179-185-10 49.2%
Total 21265 10532-10283-450 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 198 97-98-3 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 545 276-259-10 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 3441 1705-1679-57 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2456 1190-1212-54 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3918 1908-1932-78 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 630 321-294-15 52.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 201 97-101-3 49.0%
Total 11389 5594-5575-220 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 183 87-94-2 48.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 431 230-193-8 54.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2697 1269-1383-45 47.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 1944 939-964-41 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3493 1678-1741-74 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 681 335-331-15 50.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 262 124-130-8 48.8%
Total 9691 4662-4836-193 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 384 197-183-4 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 592 286-293-13 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 2493 1167-1278-48 47.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 2384 1129-1205-50 48.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 3260 1569-1635-56 49.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 845 407-425-13 48.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 396 191-200-5 48.8%
Total 10354 4946-5219-189 48.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.