Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 18 6-12-0 33.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 44 17-26-1 39.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 23 11-12-0 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 20 11-7-2 61.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1 0-1-0 0.0%
Total 106 45-58-3 43.7%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 61 28-28-5 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 112 56-54-2 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 65 28-35-2 44.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 28 12-16-0 42.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 10 6-3-1 66.7%
Total 276 130-136-10 48.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 233 99-122-12 44.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 485 250-228-7 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 146 67-77-2 46.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 94 51-42-1 54.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 20 12-7-1 63.2%
Total 978 479-476-23 50.2%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 144 62-80-2 43.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 439 203-220-16 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 134 69-63-2 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 62 32-30-0 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 19 6-13-0 31.6%
Total 798 372-406-20 47.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 90 44-45-1 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 530 251-266-13 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 223 107-111-5 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 117 50-63-4 44.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 35 14-21-0 40.0%
Total 995 466-506-23 47.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 67 34-31-2 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 145 70-72-3 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 76 38-36-2 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 31 18-13-0 58.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 321 160-154-7 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 106 55-50-1 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 54 22-29-3 43.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 203 95-102-6 48.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.