Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 18 6-12-0 33.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 49 20-28-1 41.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 25 11-14-0 44.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 24 12-9-3 57.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1 0-1-0 0.0%
Total 117 49-64-4 43.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 65 31-29-5 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 117 57-58-2 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 67 29-36-2 44.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 28 12-16-0 42.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 10 6-3-1 66.7%
Total 287 135-142-10 48.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 249 107-127-15 45.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 500 255-238-7 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 153 70-81-2 46.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 97 53-43-1 55.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 20 12-7-1 63.2%
Total 1019 497-496-26 50.1%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 152 67-83-2 44.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 455 211-227-17 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 141 73-66-2 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 63 32-31-0 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 19 6-13-0 31.6%
Total 830 389-420-21 48.1%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 96 47-48-1 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 561 266-281-14 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 228 110-113-5 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 123 52-67-4 43.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 35 14-21-0 40.0%
Total 1043 489-530-24 48.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 73 38-33-2 53.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 155 72-80-3 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 81 39-40-2 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 31 18-13-0 58.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 342 167-168-7 49.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 113 59-53-1 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 60 23-34-3 40.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 19 9-10-0 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 218 100-112-6 47.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.