Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 11 3-8-0 27.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 30 11-19-0 36.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 18 8-10-0 44.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 15 10-4-1 71.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1 0-1-0 0.0%
Total 75 32-42-1 43.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 58 27-26-5 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 103 52-49-2 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 60 25-33-2 43.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 24 10-14-0 41.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 9 6-2-1 75.0%
Total 254 120-124-10 49.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 215 92-111-12 45.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 461 242-212-7 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 132 58-72-2 44.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 87 47-40-0 54.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 18 10-7-1 58.8%
Total 913 449-442-22 50.4%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 135 60-73-2 45.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 420 192-212-16 47.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 126 65-59-2 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 59 31-28-0 52.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 18 6-12-0 33.3%
Total 758 354-384-20 48.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 84 44-39-1 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 509 238-258-13 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 217 103-109-5 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 114 47-63-4 42.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 33 12-21-0 36.4%
Total 957 444-490-23 47.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 66 34-30-2 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 137 67-67-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 70 34-34-2 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 31 18-13-0 58.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 306 153-146-7 51.2%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 93 50-42-1 54.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 44 15-26-3 36.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 22 8-12-2 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 178 83-89-6 48.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.