Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 23 10-13-0 43.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 60 23-36-1 39.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 28 13-15-0 46.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 13-16-3 44.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1 0-1-0 0.0%
Total 144 59-81-4 42.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 68 33-29-6 53.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 127 61-64-2 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 74 33-39-2 45.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 31 13-18-0 41.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 11 7-3-1 70.0%
Total 311 147-153-11 49.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 295 132-142-21 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 545 277-260-8 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 169 76-91-2 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 105 57-47-1 54.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Total 1135 554-548-33 50.3%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 169 76-91-2 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 491 231-242-18 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 147 75-70-2 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 66 33-32-1 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 21 7-14-0 33.3%
Total 894 422-449-23 48.5%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 106 50-55-1 47.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 613 291-308-14 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 241 117-118-6 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 127 56-67-4 45.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 35 14-21-0 40.0%
Total 1122 528-569-25 48.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 83 41-40-2 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 170 77-90-3 46.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 84 40-42-2 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 19-13-0 59.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 371 177-187-7 48.6%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 142 71-69-2 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 71 29-38-4 43.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 22 11-11-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 27 10-15-2 40.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 264 122-134-8 47.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.