Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 25 12-13-0 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 69 27-41-1 39.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 30 15-15-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 13-16-3 44.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 158 68-86-4 44.2%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 71 34-31-6 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 136 65-68-3 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 78 36-40-2 47.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 14-18-0 43.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 12 8-3-1 72.7%
Total 329 157-160-12 49.5%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 330 150-159-21 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 590 302-278-10 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 178 79-97-2 44.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 111 59-51-1 53.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Total 1230 602-593-35 50.4%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 182 82-98-2 45.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 516 244-254-18 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 157 80-75-2 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 69 35-33-1 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 21 7-14-0 33.3%
Total 945 448-474-23 48.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 118 55-62-1 47.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 650 315-319-16 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 252 122-124-6 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 130 57-69-4 45.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 35 14-21-0 40.0%
Total 1185 563-595-27 48.6%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 88 45-41-2 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 182 85-94-3 47.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 85 40-43-2 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 32 19-13-0 59.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 0-2-0 0.0%
Total 389 189-193-7 49.5%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Opening Line # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 160 81-77-2 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 73 30-38-5 44.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 22 11-11-0 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 29 11-16-2 40.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 286 134-143-9 48.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.