Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 44 21-22-1 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 76 36-38-2 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 360 165-187-8 46.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 141 75-64-2 54.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 166 89-76-1 53.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 73 38-34-1 52.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 223 110-108-5 50.5%
Total 1083 534-529-20 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 191 98-91-2 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 188 92-93-3 49.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 666 322-333-11 49.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 465 205-246-14 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 810 407-393-10 50.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 235 115-115-5 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 194 97-93-4 51.1%
Total 2749 1336-1364-49 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 132 77-53-2 59.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 133 62-69-2 47.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 321 145-169-7 46.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 248 112-129-7 46.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 477 231-235-11 49.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 156 78-74-4 51.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 126 60-62-4 49.2%
Total 1593 765-791-37 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 171 85-83-3 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 153 61-90-2 40.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 404 214-187-3 53.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 193 101-91-1 52.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 354 183-167-4 52.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 162 77-84-1 47.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 186 87-95-4 47.8%
Total 1623 808-797-18 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 252 132-116-4 53.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 216 105-107-4 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 465 245-214-6 53.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 288 152-132-4 53.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 410 216-188-6 53.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 166 82-82-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 155 67-85-3 44.1%
Total 1952 999-924-29 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 177 81-93-3 46.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 147 74-72-1 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 287 156-127-4 55.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 198 99-96-3 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 213 109-102-2 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 86 49-37-0 57.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 83 35-45-3 43.8%
Total 1191 603-572-16 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 165 66-95-4 41.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 111 56-54-1 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 299 150-146-3 50.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 295 151-142-2 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 280 141-134-5 51.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 77 38-39-0 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 117 54-62-1 46.6%
Total 1344 656-672-16 49.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.