Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 44 21-22-1 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 76 36-38-2 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 353 161-184-8 46.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 138 73-63-2 53.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 163 88-74-1 54.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 73 38-34-1 52.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 216 107-104-5 50.7%
Total 1063 524-519-20 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 183 95-86-2 52.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 187 91-93-3 49.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 651 317-323-11 49.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 460 202-244-14 45.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 799 400-389-10 50.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 229 112-112-5 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 192 96-92-4 51.1%
Total 2701 1313-1339-49 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 127 74-51-2 59.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 133 62-69-2 47.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 314 141-166-7 45.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 245 110-128-7 46.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 471 228-233-10 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 152 76-72-4 51.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 124 59-61-4 49.2%
Total 1566 750-780-36 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 164 79-82-3 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 150 58-90-2 39.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 395 212-180-3 54.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 192 100-91-1 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 345 177-164-4 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 160 77-82-1 48.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 184 86-94-4 47.8%
Total 1590 789-783-18 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 244 128-112-4 53.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 212 103-106-3 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 448 240-202-6 54.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 283 152-128-3 54.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 404 212-186-6 53.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 164 81-81-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 147 63-82-2 43.4%
Total 1902 979-897-26 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 164 74-87-3 46.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 140 70-69-1 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 279 152-123-4 55.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 194 97-94-3 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 205 106-97-2 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 86 49-37-0 57.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 82 35-44-3 44.3%
Total 1150 583-551-16 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 142 56-83-3 40.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 103 50-53-0 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 288 142-143-3 49.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 287 147-138-2 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 266 132-129-5 50.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 73 37-36-0 50.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 113 51-61-1 45.5%
Total 1272 615-643-14 48.9%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.