Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 66 33-31-2 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 108 55-50-3 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 514 238-261-15 47.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 201 98-101-2 49.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 226 126-98-2 56.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 97 55-41-1 57.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 319 161-151-7 51.6%
Total 1531 766-733-32 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 243 124-116-3 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 255 128-121-6 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 871 423-431-17 49.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 582 257-308-17 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 1070 523-533-14 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 316 154-155-7 49.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 250 123-121-6 50.4%
Total 3587 1732-1785-70 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 183 103-78-2 56.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 172 80-89-3 47.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 422 189-226-7 45.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 306 143-152-11 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 610 304-292-14 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 211 101-103-7 49.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 172 85-79-8 51.8%
Total 2076 1005-1019-52 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 226 108-115-3 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 192 77-113-2 40.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 506 260-242-4 51.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 234 117-115-2 50.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 454 228-219-7 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 207 102-104-1 49.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 247 113-127-7 47.1%
Total 2066 1005-1035-26 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 302 156-139-7 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 268 127-137-4 48.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 589 308-273-8 53.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 346 185-157-4 54.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 530 277-246-7 53.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 208 101-104-3 49.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 193 90-100-3 47.4%
Total 2436 1244-1156-36 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 215 104-108-3 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 173 85-87-1 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 369 188-175-6 51.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 246 127-115-4 52.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 266 136-127-3 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 113 63-48-2 56.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 103 44-56-3 44.0%
Total 1485 747-716-22 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 211 86-121-4 41.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 140 74-65-1 53.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 388 196-187-5 51.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 369 190-177-2 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 337 167-165-5 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 107 49-57-1 46.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 139 64-73-2 46.7%
Total 1691 826-845-20 49.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.