Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 40 19-20-1 48.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 67 34-31-2 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 321 146-169-6 46.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 127 68-57-2 54.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 150 80-70-0 53.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 68 37-30-1 55.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 204 101-99-4 50.5%
Total 977 485-476-16 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 174 91-81-2 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 171 81-87-3 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 599 289-301-9 49.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 439 190-235-14 44.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 748 375-363-10 50.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 218 107-106-5 50.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 185 94-87-4 51.9%
Total 2534 1227-1260-47 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 118 69-47-2 59.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 126 58-66-2 46.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 295 130-159-6 45.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 238 108-123-7 46.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 454 220-225-9 49.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 147 75-68-4 52.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 121 58-59-4 49.6%
Total 1499 718-747-34 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 160 76-81-3 48.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 140 55-84-1 39.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 378 203-172-3 54.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 176 90-85-1 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 326 167-155-4 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 157 75-81-1 48.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 177 84-89-4 48.6%
Total 1514 750-747-17 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 234 121-109-4 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 205 101-101-3 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 421 221-194-6 53.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 273 144-126-3 53.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 376 200-170-6 54.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 157 76-79-2 49.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 142 58-82-2 41.4%
Total 1808 921-861-26 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 163 74-86-3 46.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 135 68-66-1 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 269 147-118-4 55.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 186 93-90-3 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 198 102-94-2 52.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 47-35-0 57.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 80 34-43-3 44.2%
Total 1113 565-532-16 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 141 56-82-3 40.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 100 48-52-0 48.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 279 138-138-3 50.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 283 145-136-2 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 258 127-126-5 50.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 72 37-35-0 51.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 108 49-58-1 45.8%
Total 1241 600-627-14 48.9%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.