Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 58 28-28-2 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 93 46-44-3 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 437 203-222-12 47.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 159 79-78-2 50.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 191 102-87-2 54.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 44-37-1 54.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 257 126-126-5 50.0%
Total 1277 628-622-27 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 210 107-101-2 51.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 221 108-108-5 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 769 372-385-12 49.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 510 221-273-16 44.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 932 457-464-11 49.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 269 130-133-6 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 218 110-103-5 51.6%
Total 3129 1505-1567-57 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 148 84-62-2 57.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 149 70-77-2 47.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 379 173-199-7 46.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 270 122-140-8 46.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 543 267-264-12 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 188 91-92-5 49.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 145 68-70-7 49.3%
Total 1822 875-904-43 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 195 96-96-3 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 169 65-102-2 38.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 452 233-216-3 51.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 214 110-102-2 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 397 198-192-7 50.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 185 89-95-1 48.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 213 102-107-4 48.8%
Total 1825 893-910-22 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 274 144-126-4 53.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 245 120-121-4 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 533 277-248-8 52.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 310 167-139-4 54.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 470 244-220-6 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 182 90-90-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 175 79-93-3 45.9%
Total 2189 1121-1037-31 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 193 90-100-3 47.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 157 77-79-1 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 324 169-151-4 52.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 215 108-104-3 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 233 120-111-2 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 97 56-39-2 58.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 93 40-50-3 44.4%
Total 1312 660-634-18 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 188 75-109-4 40.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 124 64-59-1 52.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 338 170-164-4 50.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 311 158-151-2 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 306 155-146-5 51.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 88 41-46-1 47.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 122 56-65-1 46.3%
Total 1477 719-740-18 49.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.