Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 66 33-31-2 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 105 52-50-3 51.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 464 215-237-12 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 175 89-84-2 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 206 110-94-2 53.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 90 50-39-1 56.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 298 151-140-7 51.9%
Total 1404 700-675-29 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 230 118-110-2 51.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 236 118-112-6 51.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 810 394-401-15 49.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 536 234-286-16 45.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 993 485-495-13 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 292 141-144-7 49.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 238 119-113-6 51.3%
Total 3335 1609-1661-65 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 173 98-73-2 57.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 165 77-85-3 47.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 406 183-216-7 45.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 286 130-147-9 46.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 575 287-276-12 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 201 97-97-7 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 165 80-77-8 51.0%
Total 1971 952-971-48 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 212 102-107-3 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 182 71-109-2 39.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 476 243-229-4 51.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 223 112-109-2 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 420 207-206-7 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 197 95-101-1 48.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 231 109-116-6 48.4%
Total 1941 939-977-25 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 295 151-137-7 52.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 256 125-127-4 49.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 553 291-254-8 53.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 316 171-141-4 54.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 499 258-235-6 52.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 201 97-101-3 49.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 189 88-98-3 47.3%
Total 2309 1181-1093-35 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 206 99-104-3 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 167 82-84-1 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 345 176-164-5 51.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 223 113-107-3 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 254 130-122-2 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 107 59-46-2 56.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 102 43-56-3 43.4%
Total 1404 702-683-19 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 205 83-118-4 41.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 136 72-63-1 53.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 364 181-178-5 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 319 166-151-2 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 319 160-154-5 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 101 47-53-1 47.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 133 61-71-1 46.2%
Total 1577 770-788-19 49.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.