Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 48 24-23-1 51.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 87 44-40-3 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 392 185-198-9 48.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 151 77-72-2 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 181 94-85-2 52.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 75 39-35-1 52.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 233 117-111-5 51.3%
Total 1167 580-564-23 50.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 200 102-96-2 51.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 207 100-103-4 49.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 717 342-364-11 48.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 486 212-260-14 44.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 861 426-425-10 50.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 251 122-124-5 49.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 199 99-96-4 50.8%
Total 2921 1403-1468-50 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 139 80-57-2 58.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 140 64-74-2 46.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 355 160-188-7 46.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 260 119-134-7 47.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 500 248-241-11 50.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 164 81-78-5 50.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 128 60-64-4 48.4%
Total 1686 812-836-38 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 177 86-88-3 49.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 160 63-95-2 39.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 430 223-204-3 52.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 203 106-96-1 52.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 369 186-177-6 51.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 171 82-88-1 48.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 192 88-100-4 46.8%
Total 1702 834-848-20 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 257 134-119-4 53.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 231 115-112-4 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 493 256-229-8 52.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 300 159-137-4 53.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 439 227-206-6 52.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 171 84-85-2 49.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 160 69-88-3 43.9%
Total 2051 1044-976-31 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 180 82-95-3 46.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 149 75-73-1 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 302 161-137-4 54.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 205 101-101-3 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 219 112-105-2 51.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 89 51-37-1 58.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 86 37-46-3 44.6%
Total 1230 619-594-17 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 168 67-97-4 40.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 114 58-55-1 51.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 312 160-149-3 51.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 299 154-143-2 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 286 144-137-5 51.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 79 38-40-1 48.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 118 55-62-1 47.0%
Total 1376 676-683-17 49.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.