Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 59 29-28-2 50.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 93 46-44-3 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 442 204-226-12 47.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 160 79-79-2 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 191 102-87-2 54.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 44-37-1 54.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 259 127-126-6 50.2%
Total 1286 631-627-28 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 213 109-102-2 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 221 108-108-5 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 770 372-386-12 49.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 517 225-276-16 44.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 938 459-468-11 49.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 271 131-134-6 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 221 111-104-6 51.6%
Total 3151 1515-1578-58 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 152 85-65-2 56.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 151 70-79-2 47.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 383 173-203-7 46.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 271 122-141-8 46.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 548 270-266-12 50.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 188 91-92-5 49.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 146 69-70-7 49.6%
Total 1839 880-916-43 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 196 97-96-3 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 170 65-103-2 38.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 455 233-219-3 51.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 215 110-103-2 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 403 199-197-7 50.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 185 89-95-1 48.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 214 102-108-4 48.6%
Total 1838 895-921-22 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 279 145-130-4 52.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 247 122-121-4 50.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 534 278-248-8 52.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 310 167-139-4 54.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 477 248-223-6 52.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 187 91-94-2 49.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 177 81-93-3 46.6%
Total 2211 1132-1048-31 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 200 96-101-3 48.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 157 77-79-1 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 330 171-155-4 52.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 221 111-107-3 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 240 123-115-2 51.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 97 56-39-2 58.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 95 41-51-3 44.6%
Total 1340 675-647-18 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 203 82-117-4 41.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 132 68-63-1 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 353 176-173-4 50.4%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 315 162-151-2 51.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 312 158-149-5 51.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 99 46-52-1 46.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 128 58-69-1 45.7%
Total 1542 750-774-18 49.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.