Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 56 27-27-2 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 92 46-43-3 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 432 200-220-12 47.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 159 79-78-2 50.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 191 102-87-2 54.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 44-37-1 54.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 254 126-123-5 50.6%
Total 1266 624-615-27 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 210 107-101-2 51.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 220 108-107-5 50.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 762 370-380-12 49.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 509 221-272-16 44.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 926 454-461-11 49.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 267 129-132-6 49.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 218 110-103-5 51.6%
Total 3112 1499-1556-57 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 148 84-62-2 57.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 149 70-77-2 47.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 378 173-198-7 46.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 270 122-140-8 46.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 542 267-263-12 50.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 186 90-91-5 49.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 143 67-69-7 49.3%
Total 1816 873-900-43 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 194 95-96-3 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 168 65-101-2 39.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 452 233-216-3 51.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 214 110-102-2 51.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 396 198-191-7 50.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 184 89-94-1 48.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 211 100-107-4 48.3%
Total 1819 890-907-22 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14-20.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 273 143-126-4 53.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 245 120-121-4 49.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 531 275-248-8 52.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 310 167-139-4 54.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 470 244-220-6 52.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 182 90-90-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 175 79-93-3 45.9%
Total 2186 1118-1037-31 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 21-27.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 193 90-100-3 47.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 157 77-79-1 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 324 169-151-4 52.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 215 108-104-3 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 233 120-111-2 51.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 97 56-39-2 58.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 93 40-50-3 44.4%
Total 1312 660-634-18 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 28+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 188 75-109-4 40.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 124 64-59-1 52.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 338 170-164-4 50.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 311 158-151-2 51.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 306 155-146-5 51.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 88 41-46-1 47.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 122 56-65-1 46.3%
Total 1477 719-740-18 49.3%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.