Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 18 6-12-0 33.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 61 28-28-5 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 233 99-122-12 44.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 144 62-80-2 43.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 90 44-45-1 49.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 67 34-31-2 52.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 106 55-50-1 52.4%
Total 719 328-368-23 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 44 17-26-1 39.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 112 56-54-2 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 485 250-228-7 52.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 439 203-220-16 48.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 530 251-266-13 48.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 145 70-72-3 49.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 54 22-29-3 43.1%
Total 1809 869-895-45 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 23 11-12-0 47.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 65 28-35-2 44.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 146 67-77-2 46.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 134 69-63-2 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 223 107-111-5 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 76 38-36-2 51.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Total 684 329-342-13 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 20 11-7-2 61.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 28 12-16-0 42.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 94 51-42-1 54.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 62 32-30-0 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 117 50-63-4 44.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 31 18-13-0 58.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Total 376 182-185-9 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-3-1 66.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 12-7-1 63.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 19 6-13-0 31.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 89 39-48-2 44.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.