Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 25 12-13-0 48.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 71 34-31-6 52.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 330 150-159-21 48.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 182 82-98-2 45.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 118 55-62-1 47.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 88 45-41-2 52.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 160 81-77-2 51.3%
Total 974 459-481-34 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 69 27-41-1 39.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 136 65-68-3 48.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 590 302-278-10 52.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 516 244-254-18 49.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 650 315-319-16 49.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 182 85-94-3 47.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 73 30-38-5 44.1%
Total 2216 1068-1092-56 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 30 15-15-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 78 36-40-2 47.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 178 79-97-2 44.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 157 80-75-2 51.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 252 122-124-6 49.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 85 40-43-2 48.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 11-11-0 50.0%
Total 802 383-405-14 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 32 13-16-3 44.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 32 14-18-0 43.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 111 59-51-1 53.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 69 35-33-1 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 130 57-69-4 45.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 19-13-0 59.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 29 11-16-2 40.7%
Total 435 208-216-11 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 8-3-1 72.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 21 7-14-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 95 43-50-2 46.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.