Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 22 10-12-0 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 65 31-29-5 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 267 115-134-18 46.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 160 73-85-2 46.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 102 48-53-1 47.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 77 40-35-2 53.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 125 64-60-1 51.6%
Total 818 381-408-29 48.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 55 21-33-1 38.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 123 59-62-2 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 517 263-247-7 51.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 473 221-235-17 48.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 582 276-292-14 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 161 73-85-3 46.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 65 26-35-4 42.6%
Total 1976 939-989-48 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 26 11-15-0 42.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 68 30-36-2 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 160 73-85-2 46.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 145 74-69-2 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 234 114-114-6 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 40-40-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 21 10-11-0 47.6%
Total 736 352-370-14 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 26 12-11-3 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 28 12-16-0 42.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 100 55-44-1 55.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 64 32-32-0 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 125 54-67-4 44.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 19-13-0 59.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Total 399 192-197-10 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-3-1 66.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 21 7-14-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 92 40-50-2 44.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.