Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 11 3-8-0 27.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 58 27-26-5 50.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 215 92-111-12 45.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 135 60-73-2 45.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 84 44-39-1 53.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 66 34-30-2 53.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 93 50-42-1 54.3%
Total 662 310-329-23 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 30 11-19-0 36.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 103 52-49-2 51.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 461 242-212-7 53.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 420 192-212-16 47.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 507 237-257-13 48.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 137 67-67-3 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 44 15-26-3 36.6%
Total 1702 816-842-44 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 18 8-10-0 44.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 60 25-33-2 43.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 132 58-72-2 44.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 126 65-59-2 52.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 217 103-109-5 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 70 34-34-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Total 640 302-325-13 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 15 10-4-1 71.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 24 10-14-0 41.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 87 47-40-0 54.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 59 31-28-0 52.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 114 47-63-4 42.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 31 18-13-0 58.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 8-12-2 40.0%
Total 352 171-174-7 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 9 6-2-1 75.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 18 10-7-1 58.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 18 6-12-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 33 12-21-0 36.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 83 35-46-2 43.2%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.