Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 18 6-12-0 33.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 61 28-28-5 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 235 100-122-13 45.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 144 62-80-2 43.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 93 45-47-1 48.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 68 35-31-2 53.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 108 56-51-1 52.3%
Total 727 332-371-24 47.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 44 17-26-1 39.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 114 56-56-2 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 490 252-231-7 52.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 445 207-222-16 48.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 535 252-270-13 48.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 145 70-72-3 49.3%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 54 22-29-3 43.1%
Total 1827 876-906-45 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 23 11-12-0 47.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 66 29-35-2 45.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 147 68-77-2 46.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 135 70-63-2 52.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 225 108-112-5 49.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 76 38-36-2 51.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 17 9-8-0 52.9%
Total 689 333-343-13 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 20 11-7-2 61.1%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 28 12-16-0 42.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 94 51-42-1 54.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 63 32-31-0 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 118 50-64-4 43.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 31 18-13-0 58.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Total 378 182-187-9 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-3-1 66.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 20 12-7-1 63.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 19 6-13-0 31.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 89 39-48-2 44.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.