Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 25 12-13-0 48.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 77 37-34-6 52.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 358 162-174-22 48.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 192 87-103-2 45.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 124 60-63-1 48.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 95 49-44-2 52.7%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 177 89-86-2 50.9%
Total 1048 496-517-35 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 78 31-46-1 40.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 141 66-72-3 47.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 634 323-301-10 51.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 536 256-262-18 49.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 689 332-340-17 49.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 190 90-97-3 48.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 81 35-41-5 46.1%
Total 2349 1133-1159-57 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 34 18-16-0 52.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 83 38-43-2 46.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 191 83-106-2 43.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 167 87-78-2 52.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 265 127-131-7 49.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 87 41-44-2 48.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 24 12-12-0 50.0%
Total 851 406-430-15 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 37 16-17-4 48.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 36 15-21-0 41.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 115 61-53-1 53.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 71 36-34-1 51.4%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 135 59-71-5 45.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 19-13-0 59.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 31 11-18-2 37.9%
Total 457 217-227-13 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 12 8-3-1 72.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 22 7-15-0 31.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 37 15-22-0 40.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 98 44-52-2 45.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.