Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 21 9-12-0 42.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 65 31-29-5 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 259 112-131-16 46.1%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 156 70-84-2 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 98 47-50-1 48.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 75 39-34-2 53.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 121 62-58-1 51.7%
Total 795 370-398-27 48.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 55 21-33-1 38.9%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 122 58-62-2 48.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 512 261-244-7 51.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 465 216-232-17 48.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 571 271-286-14 48.7%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 158 72-83-3 46.5%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 64 26-35-3 42.6%
Total 1947 925-975-47 48.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 26 11-15-0 42.3%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 68 30-36-2 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 157 72-83-2 46.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 142 73-67-2 52.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 230 112-113-5 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 82 40-40-2 50.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 21 10-11-0 47.6%
Total 726 348-365-13 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 26 12-11-3 52.2%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 28 12-16-0 42.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 98 54-43-1 55.7%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 64 32-32-0 50.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 125 54-67-4 44.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 19-13-0 59.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 24 8-14-2 36.4%
Total 397 191-196-10 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-3-1 66.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 20 6-14-0 30.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 91 39-50-2 43.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.