Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 23 10-13-0 43.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 68 33-29-6 53.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 295 132-142-21 48.2%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 169 76-91-2 45.5%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 106 50-55-1 47.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 83 41-40-2 50.6%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 142 71-69-2 50.7%
Total 886 413-439-34 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 60 23-36-1 39.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 127 61-64-2 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 545 277-260-8 51.6%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 491 231-242-18 48.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 613 291-308-14 48.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 170 77-90-3 46.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 71 29-38-4 43.3%
Total 2077 989-1038-50 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 28 13-15-0 46.4%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 74 33-39-2 45.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 169 76-91-2 45.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 147 75-70-2 51.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 241 117-118-6 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 84 40-42-2 48.8%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 22 11-11-0 50.0%
Total 765 365-386-14 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 32 13-16-3 44.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 31 13-18-0 41.9%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 105 57-47-1 54.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 66 33-32-1 50.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 127 56-67-4 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 32 19-13-0 59.4%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 27 10-15-2 40.0%
Total 420 201-208-11 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 1 0-1-0 0.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 11 7-3-1 70.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 21 12-8-1 60.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 21 7-14-0 33.3%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 35 14-21-0 40.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 93 41-50-2 45.1%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.