Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 279 139-136-4 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 374 200-166-8 54.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 185 91-91-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 169 80-87-2 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 318 163-153-2 51.6%
Total 1325 673-633-19 51.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 905 439-454-12 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1203 599-585-19 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 526 266-251-9 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 416 219-189-8 53.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 545 263-269-13 49.4%
Total 3595 1786-1748-61 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 5023 2465-2452-106 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 7527 3704-3665-158 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3383 1676-1650-57 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2633 1242-1346-45 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2406 1127-1234-45 47.7%
Total 20972 10214-10347-411 49.7%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2418 1228-1138-52 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 4522 2278-2151-93 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2438 1181-1203-54 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 1920 926-954-40 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2352 1115-1189-48 48.4%
Total 13650 6728-6635-287 50.3%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2011 1023-953-35 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6242 3065-3041-136 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3864 1876-1910-78 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3456 1659-1723-74 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3195 1534-1605-56 48.9%
Total 18768 9157-9232-379 49.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 818 427-377-14 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 709 346-342-21 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 613 312-286-15 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 664 325-324-15 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 833 402-418-13 49.0%
Total 3637 1812-1747-78 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 971 498-464-9 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 372 177-185-10 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 191 94-94-3 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 254 121-125-8 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 384 188-191-5 49.6%
Total 2172 1078-1059-35 50.4%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.