Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 318 158-154-6 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 418 216-193-9 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 214 105-105-4 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 195 90-103-2 46.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 420 218-197-5 52.5%
Total 1565 787-752-26 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1038 506-518-14 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1337 674-643-20 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 591 299-280-12 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 466 247-211-8 53.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 635 307-314-14 49.4%
Total 4067 2033-1966-68 50.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 5498 2698-2686-114 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 8245 4057-4019-169 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3697 1825-1811-61 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2856 1344-1464-48 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2664 1245-1369-50 47.6%
Total 22960 11169-11349-442 49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2632 1336-1242-54 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 4858 2448-2312-98 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2594 1258-1280-56 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2061 996-1022-43 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2446 1159-1237-50 48.4%
Total 14591 7197-7093-301 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2156 1095-1020-41 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6758 3325-3288-145 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4175 2053-2041-81 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3683 1785-1822-76 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3408 1640-1711-57 48.9%
Total 20180 9898-9882-400 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 884 460-410-14 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 771 374-374-23 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 669 338-316-15 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 725 363-347-15 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 876 424-438-14 49.2%
Total 3925 1959-1885-81 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1074 548-514-12 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 389 188-191-10 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 214 106-105-3 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 283 135-140-8 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 417 203-208-6 49.4%
Total 2377 1180-1158-39 50.5%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.