Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 237 116-118-3 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 324 169-147-8 53.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 151 73-74-4 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 132 64-67-1 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 242 117-123-2 48.8%
Total 1086 539-529-18 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 788 375-407-6 48.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1042 516-507-19 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 456 227-220-9 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 359 186-167-6 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 445 222-215-8 50.8%
Total 3090 1526-1516-48 50.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 4500 2211-2193-96 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6854 3390-3330-134 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3076 1524-1504-48 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2400 1126-1229-45 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2160 1014-1104-42 47.9%
Total 18990 9265-9360-365 49.7%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2039 1046-949-44 52.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 3942 1979-1863-100 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2101 1022-1034-45 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 1651 800-806-45 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1850 907-908-35 50.0%
Total 11583 5754-5560-269 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1834 935-862-37 52.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 5695 2811-2749-135 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3537 1702-1760-75 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3197 1531-1600-66 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2944 1415-1473-56 49.0%
Total 17207 8394-8444-369 49.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 722 395-317-10 55.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 629 302-308-19 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 534 277-249-8 52.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 604 298-294-12 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 736 356-364-16 49.4%
Total 3225 1628-1532-65 51.5%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 825 422-392-11 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 314 147-160-7 47.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 158 78-79-1 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 224 111-107-6 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 319 148-167-4 47.0%
Total 1840 906-905-29 50.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.