Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 382 192-181-9 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 479 243-227-9 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 256 122-130-4 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 248 114-132-2 46.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 630 326-298-6 52.2%
Total 1995 997-968-30 50.7%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1214 588-610-16 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1543 779-743-21 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 698 349-337-12 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 562 295-257-10 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 830 403-410-17 49.6%
Total 4847 2414-2357-76 50.6%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 6155 3035-2990-130 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 9243 4544-4511-188 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4149 2041-2042-66 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3217 1513-1650-54 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3141 1471-1613-57 47.7%
Total 25905 12604-12806-495 49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2965 1495-1411-59 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 5368 2690-2576-102 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2832 1366-1407-59 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2240 1089-1104-47 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2659 1264-1343-52 48.5%
Total 16064 7904-7841-319 50.2%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2442 1230-1164-48 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 7523 3695-3672-156 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4616 2283-2245-88 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 4004 1925-2001-78 49.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3829 1833-1933-63 48.7%
Total 22414 10966-11015-433 49.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1014 519-476-19 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 896 421-449-26 48.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 735 371-347-17 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 793 401-375-17 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1010 492-503-15 49.4%
Total 4448 2204-2150-94 50.6%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1221 619-587-15 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 432 210-212-10 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 244 121-119-4 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 311 152-151-8 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 474 239-229-6 51.1%
Total 2682 1341-1298-43 50.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.