Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 232 114-115-3 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 320 169-143-8 54.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 150 73-73-4 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 125 61-63-1 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 242 117-123-2 48.8%
Total 1069 534-517-18 50.8%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 753 362-385-6 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1008 498-491-19 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 445 223-213-9 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 349 183-160-6 53.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 441 219-214-8 50.6%
Total 2996 1485-1463-48 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 4256 2099-2068-89 50.4%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6525 3238-3160-127 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2946 1455-1444-47 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2295 1078-1175-42 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2098 996-1060-42 48.4%
Total 18120 8866-8907-347 49.9%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1911 978-892-41 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 3715 1865-1757-93 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1982 964-974-44 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 1564 757-763-44 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1804 892-879-33 50.4%
Total 10976 5456-5265-255 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1753 896-822-35 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 5402 2670-2602-130 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3390 1636-1683-71 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3067 1469-1535-63 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2877 1389-1434-54 49.2%
Total 16489 8060-8076-353 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 683 379-296-8 56.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 603 289-295-19 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 522 269-245-8 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 581 292-278-11 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 715 349-351-15 49.9%
Total 3104 1578-1465-61 51.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 782 401-371-10 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 307 143-157-7 47.7%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 155 76-78-1 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 216 104-106-6 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 316 146-166-4 46.8%
Total 1776 870-878-28 49.8%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.