Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 313 157-150-6 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 410 213-188-9 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 211 103-104-4 49.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 193 90-101-2 47.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 416 216-195-5 52.6%
Total 1543 779-738-26 51.4%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1015 495-506-14 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1315 658-637-20 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 578 292-275-11 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 459 243-208-8 53.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 626 303-309-14 49.5%
Total 3993 1991-1935-67 50.7%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 5410 2651-2646-113 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 8074 3973-3936-165 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3624 1792-1772-60 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2815 1320-1447-48 47.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2640 1235-1355-50 47.7%
Total 22563 10971-11156-436 49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2600 1318-1228-54 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 4804 2423-2283-98 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2551 1238-1258-55 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2043 984-1016-43 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2440 1157-1233-50 48.4%
Total 14438 7120-7018-300 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2136 1085-1010-41 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6663 3271-3247-145 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4130 2030-2019-81 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3644 1766-1802-76 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3383 1629-1697-57 49.0%
Total 19956 9781-9775-400 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 875 456-405-14 53.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 766 372-371-23 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 666 338-313-15 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 719 358-346-15 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 876 424-438-14 49.2%
Total 3902 1948-1873-81 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1061 543-507-11 51.7%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 389 188-191-10 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 214 106-105-3 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 280 134-138-8 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 416 202-208-6 49.3%
Total 2360 1173-1149-38 50.5%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.