Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 385 193-183-9 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 484 245-230-9 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 259 124-131-4 48.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 252 114-136-2 45.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 631 326-299-6 52.2%
Total 2011 1002-979-30 50.6%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1244 601-627-16 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1595 808-766-21 51.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 727 363-352-12 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 579 303-266-10 53.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 843 407-419-17 49.3%
Total 4988 2482-2430-76 50.5%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 6338 3121-3086-131 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 9468 4653-4625-190 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4280 2095-2119-66 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3300 1547-1699-54 47.7%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3194 1503-1634-57 47.9%
Total 26580 12919-13163-498 49.5%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 3185 1592-1532-61 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 5605 2803-2699-103 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2966 1427-1477-62 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2315 1120-1148-47 49.4%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2696 1286-1358-52 48.6%
Total 16767 8228-8214-325 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2581 1296-1235-50 51.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 7807 3850-3800-157 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4767 2354-2322-91 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 4115 1973-2063-79 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3902 1869-1969-64 48.7%
Total 23172 11342-11389-441 49.9%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1043 534-490-19 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 951 452-473-26 48.9%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 763 385-361-17 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 820 414-389-17 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1018 498-505-15 49.7%
Total 4595 2283-2218-94 50.7%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1304 656-632-16 50.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 444 218-216-10 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 252 126-121-5 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 313 153-152-8 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 481 240-235-6 50.5%
Total 2794 1393-1356-45 50.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.