Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 209 104-102-3 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 294 158-129-7 55.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 132 63-65-4 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 116 60-55-1 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 205 104-99-2 51.2%
Total 956 489-450-17 52.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 693 336-352-5 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 937 460-458-19 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 416 211-196-9 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 320 163-151-6 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 370 185-179-6 50.8%
Total 2736 1355-1336-45 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 4060 2009-1967-84 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6261 3098-3040-123 50.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2827 1391-1391-45 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2166 1007-1120-39 47.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1928 920-972-36 48.6%
Total 17242 8425-8490-327 49.8%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1831 934-857-40 52.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 3593 1805-1698-90 51.5%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 1920 934-944-42 49.7%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 1496 726-727-43 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 1706 845-828-33 50.5%
Total 10546 5244-5054-248 50.9%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1685 863-789-33 52.2%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 5164 2557-2480-127 50.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3219 1551-1601-67 49.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2929 1399-1467-63 48.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2688 1313-1325-50 49.8%
Total 15685 7683-7662-340 50.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 649 359-282-8 56.0%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 562 268-276-18 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 489 256-226-7 53.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 538 273-256-9 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 645 310-320-15 49.2%
Total 2883 1466-1360-57 51.9%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 701 362-330-9 52.3%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 274 125-142-7 46.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 133 64-68-1 48.5%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 193 91-98-4 48.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 277 130-144-3 47.4%
Total 1578 772-782-24 49.7%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.