Results Based on Overall Line Movement

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 318 158-154-6 50.6%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 418 216-193-9 52.8%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 214 105-105-4 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 195 90-103-2 46.6%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 418 216-197-5 52.3%
Total 1563 785-752-26 51.1%

Overall Line Movement of 2 or 2.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1036 506-516-14 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 1333 671-642-20 51.1%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 591 299-280-12 51.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 465 246-211-8 53.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 634 306-314-14 49.4%
Total 4059 2028-1963-68 50.8%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Favorite
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 5490 2693-2683-114 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 8219 4044-4006-169 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 3691 1823-1807-61 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2851 1341-1462-48 47.8%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2661 1243-1368-50 47.6%
Total 22912 11144-11326-442 49.6%

Closing Line Same As Opening Line
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2629 1336-1239-54 51.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 4852 2444-2310-98 51.4%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 2590 1256-1278-56 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 2060 995-1022-43 49.3%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 2446 1159-1237-50 48.4%
Total 14577 7190-7086-301 50.4%

Overall Line Movement of 0.5 to 1.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 2151 1093-1017-41 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 6747 3319-3283-145 50.3%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 4166 2048-2037-81 50.1%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 3675 1780-1819-76 49.5%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 3406 1638-1711-57 48.9%
Total 20145 9878-9867-400 50.0%

Overall Line Movement of 2.0 to 2.5 Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 884 460-410-14 52.9%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 771 374-374-23 50.0%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 668 338-315-15 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 723 361-347-15 51.0%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 876 424-438-14 49.2%
Total 3922 1957-1884-81 51.0%

Overall Line Movement of 3+ Toward Underdog
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 1069 547-510-12 51.8%
Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 389 188-191-10 49.6%
Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 214 106-105-3 50.2%
Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 281 134-139-8 49.1%
Opening Favorite of 14+ 417 203-208-6 49.4%
Total 2370 1178-1153-39 50.5%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game against the closing spread, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the direction and size of the line movement associated with each game, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite. Within the tables, each line represents a different range of opening spreads, from games with only a small opening favorite to games with a large favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario, measured against the closing spread. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.