NFL Adjusted Power Ratings: Week 15 (2025)
See our updated NFL power ratings adjusted to better predict future odds and matchup strength of each team by adding situational factors.
by Jason Lisk - Dec 9, 2025
(Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
At PoolGenius and BetIQ, we do a lot of behind-the-scenes work to make sure our numbers are as sharp as possible.
One example is our automated NFL power rating system, which you can find on both the BetIQ Season Predictions page and the TeamRankings Predictive Ratings page.
However, these ratings largely ignore injuries/absences and can overweigh luck (turnovers, missed kicks), so teams may look stronger or weaker than they really are.
In Week 5, for example, Detroit didn’t face the same Bengals team that Cleveland did in Week 1 (due to injuries), and Houston didn’t face the same Ravens team that Buffalo saw early (injuries, again)—yet models treat those opponents as identical. That’s why manual context and adjustments are essential.
That’s where our NFL Adjusted Power Ratings come into play.
By navigating these links, you can see the latest version below (and previous weeks), along with our methodology.
- Latest: Week 15 Power Ratings
- Previous: Week 6-14 Power Ratings
- Methodology: How the Ratings Work
Latest Ratings
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 15
Here are the Week 15 ratings. These are mostly listed as “power ratings for this week”, although they will also represent the season rating for most teams.
However, some teams may have different ratings in later weeks due to injuries and the expected return dates of key players. Refer to the notes below for any teams with a significantly different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Rams | 8.4 | 7.2 | 9.2 |
| 2 | Seattle | 7.8 | 5.7 | 8.0 |
| 3 | Green Bay | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 4.8 | 4.0 | 5.4 |
| 5 | Detroit | 4.6 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
| 6 | Houston | 4.2 | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| 7 | Kansas City | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| 8 | Philadelphia | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| 9 | New England | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| 10 | San Francisco | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| 11 | Baltimore | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Denver | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 13 | Jacksonville | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| 14 | Dallas | 1.6 | 1.7 | -0.8 |
| 15 | LA Chargers | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 16 | Chicago | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | -0.6 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | -0.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay | -1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 20 | Minnesota | -2.2 | -4.5 | -0.8 |
| 21 | Miami | -2.8 | -3.4 | -2.9 |
| 22 | Indianapolis | -3.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| 23 | Carolina | -3.0 | -4.1 | -3.8 |
| 24 | Arizona | -3.4 | -2.3 | -2.6 |
| 25 | Atlanta | -4.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
| 26 | NY Giants | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.9 |
| 27 | Washington | -5.0 | -2.5 | -4.0 |
| 28 | Cleveland | -6.4 | -5.9 | -6.7 |
| 29 | New Orleans | -6.6 | -6.9 | -7.6 |
| 30 | Las Vegas | -6.7 | -6.5 | -8.3 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -8.0 | -7.5 | -7.4 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.0 | -8.3 | -8.5 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
We have several big moves this week in the ratings, as injuries have affected some teams, and the market is also adjusting to some teams that have likely been undervalued.
- The Indianapolis Colts are a big faller as they lost QB Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury, Anthony Richardson is still on IR with an eye injury, and rookie Riley Leonard also got hurt on Sunday. The Colts have signed Brett Rypien and are now bringing 44-year-old Philip Rivers into the practice squad.
- Washington got some temporary optimism in the market with Jayden Daniels’ return, but he didn’t look good and got hurt again. Now we wait to see if they shut him down for the year.
- Tampa Bay continues to struggle. Baker Mayfield is trying to play through a shoulder injury, but he is clearly not healthy, and the Bucs’ rating has gone down.
- We have partial adjustments (to varying degrees of strength) for all the following teams in Week 18, based on the risk of locking in a playoff spot and resting starters: LA Rams, Seattle, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Denver, New England, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Houston.
Previous Ratings
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 14
Here are the Week 14 ratings. These are mostly listed as “power ratings for this week”, although they will also represent the season rating for most teams.
However, some teams may have different ratings in later weeks due to injuries and the expected return dates of key players. Refer to the notes below for any teams with a significantly different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Rams | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Seattle | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| 3 | Kansas City | 5.0 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| 5 | Green Bay | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 6 | Buffalo | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| 8 | Houston | 3.4 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| 9 | Detroit | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 10 | Baltimore | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 11 | Denver | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| 12 | San Francisco | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| 13 | New England | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 14 | Dallas | 1.7 | 1.1 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay | 0.5 | -1.5 | 0.7 |
| 17 | LA Chargers | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 0.0 | -1.0 | -4.3 |
| 19 | Chicago | -0.5 | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| 21 | Arizona | -2.3 | -2.6 | -1.7 |
| 22 | Washington | -2.5 | -5.9 | -2.5 |
| 23 | Miami | -3.4 | -3.2 | -3.9 |
| 24 | Atlanta | -4.0 | -4.2 | -2.9 |
| 25 | Carolina | -4.1 | -4.4 | -3.7 |
| 26 | Minnesota | -4.5 | -2.1 | -2.3 |
| 27 | NY Giants | -4.7 | -4.3 | -4.8 |
| 28 | Cleveland | -5.9 | -5.4 | -6.4 |
| 29 | Las Vegas | -6.5 | -6.5 | -8.2 |
| 30 | New Orleans | -6.9 | -7.3 | -8.4 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -7.5 | -8.0 | -6.0 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.3 | -7.3 | -9.0 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes – Why Are the Top Teams Not at the Top?
The 2025 season has been a bit weird, to say the least. You might notice that many of the teams at the top of the power ratings are either in a wildcard spot or currently out of the playoffs. Meanwhile, several teams currently in position to be top seeds are outside our Top 10.
Currently, the top three seeds in the AFC are Denver (No. 11), New England (No. 13), and Jacksonville (No. 15). The top seed in the NFC right now is Chicago, all the way down at No. 19.
So what in the Sam Hill is going on?
It’s a combination of strength-of-schedule differences, close-game performance, and, in some cases, past injuries or matchups.
In the case of New England and Chicago, their strength of schedule so far ranks at the bottom of the NFL. For New England, it’s not only the easiest schedule this year, but also the easiest since we have tracked strength of schedule in our rankings since 2003. The average opponent rating so far is -3.5. The lowest average opponent rating in our data is Atlanta in 2023 at -2.7, followed by New Orleans the same year at -2.4.
Let’s illustrate just how extreme New England’s schedule has been. Of the bottom 10 teams in our power ratings, New England has played 9 of them (everyone but Minnesota), going 8-1 so far. So 75% of their games have been against the bottom 10 teams. Kansas City has played two games against that same group; Detroit has played three.
For Chicago, they have also played one of the easiest schedules to date … and have outscored their opponents by a total of 6 points all year. That’s why they are all the way down at No. 19 in our ratings despite being the top seed, for now.
Finally, here are the records of this group in one-score games so far:
- Denver 8-2
- Chicago 6-1
- New England 6-2
- Jacksonville 5-3
Predictively, performance in one-score games regresses, and you are better off looking at overall point differentials. Over the last decade, teams that played at least six one-score games in the regular season and won at least 75% of them went 14-14 in close games in the playoffs.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 13
Here are the Week 13 ratings. These are mostly listed as “power ratings for this week”, although they will also represent the season rating for most teams.
However, some teams may have different ratings in later weeks due to injuries and the expected return dates of key players. Refer to the notes below for any teams with a significantly different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Rams | 7.5 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| 2 | Kansas City | 5.8 | 6.3 | 7.1 |
| 3 | Seattle | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Detroit | 5.4 | 5.1 | 6.7 |
| 5 | Buffalo | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| 6 | Indianapolis | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| 8 | Green Bay | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| 9 | Baltimore | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Denver | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| 11 | Houston | 2.2 | -1.4 | 4.9 |
| 12 | San Francisco | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| 13 | New England | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 14 | LA Chargers | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 1.1 | 1.1 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Dallas | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | -0.1 | -2.1 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | -1.0 | -7.1 | -5.8 |
| 19 | Chicago | -1.4 | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay | -1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 21 | Minnesota | -2.1 | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Arizona | -2.6 | -2.8 | -2.1 |
| 23 | Miami | -3.2 | -2.2 | -3.7 |
| 24 | Atlanta | -4.2 | -5.6 | -2.8 |
| 25 | NY Giants | -4.3 | -4.2 | -4.2 |
| 26 | Carolina | -4.4 | -3.2 | -4.7 |
| 27 | Cleveland | -5.4 | -7.3 | -5.5 |
| 28 | Washington | -5.9 | -5.5 | -2.7 |
| 29 | Las Vegas | -6.5 | -5.3 | -7.9 |
| 30 | New Orleans | -7.3 | -6.6 | -8.8 |
| 31 | Tennessee | -7.3 | -9.0 | -8.2 |
| 32 | NY Jets | -8.0 | -7.6 | -6.3 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
There are some longer-term injuries, as well as some shorter-term and uncertain situations, affecting the ratings this week.
Baker Mayfield could miss time with shoulder injury. Although it appears Mayfield avoided a more serious injury, his status for this week and next is still up in the air. This rating includes an above-average likelihood that he misses this week, and the rating reverts closer to where it has been in a few weeks.
Joe Burrow appears to be ready to play on Thursday. This Bengals number factors in his return.
J.J. McCarthy is in concussion protocol. The Minnesota number has dipped further, and it appears as though Max Brosmer is starting this week’s game, and maybe beyond.
Will we get any news on QB Jayden Daniels? It looks like Daniels will not play this week (this rating and the spread reflect that), but if he actually returns at some point, we should start to get that news soon. Our future weeks for Washington do include a partial adjustment for the possibility of a return.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 12
Here are the Week 12 ratings. These are mostly listed as “power ratings for this week”, although they will also represent the season rating for most teams.
However, some teams may have different ratings in later weeks due to injuries and the expected return dates of key players. Refer to the notes below for any teams with a significantly different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Rams | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.8 |
| 2 | Kansas City | 6.3 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| 3 | Seattle | 5.9 | 5.6 | 6.3 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 6 | Detroit | 5.1 | 5.8 | 7.1 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| 8 | Baltimore | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| 9 | Green Bay | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| 10 | Denver | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| 11 | New England | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| 12 | San Francisco | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 14 | LA Chargers | 1.3 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 1.1 | -0.5 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Dallas | 0.1 | -1.0 | -2.0 |
| 17 | Minnesota | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.7 |
| 18 | Chicago | -0.8 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
| 19 | Houston | -1.4 | -0.8 | 4.8 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | -2.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| 21 | Miami | -2.2 | -2.3 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Arizona | -2.8 | -2.0 | -2.1 |
| 23 | Carolina | -3.2 | -5.0 | -4.7 |
| 24 | NY Giants | -4.2 | -4.5 | -4.6 |
| 25 | Las Vegas | -5.3 | -5.7 | -6.1 |
| 26 | Washington | -5.5 | -5.5 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Atlanta | -5.6 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| 28 | New Orleans | -6.6 | -7.1 | -8.2 |
| 29 | Cincinnati | -7.1 | -4.1 | -5.8 |
| 30 | Cleveland | -7.3 | -5.4 | -6.4 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -7.6 | -7.9 | -6.3 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -9.0 | -8.9 | -8.6 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
There are some longer-term injuries, as well as some shorter-term and uncertain situations, affecting the ratings this week.
Bengals Without Ja’Marr Chase, and Pre-Burrow. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is suspended for one game, and we might be one week away from the return of QB Joe Burrow. So this power rating is specific to Week 12, and the Bengals will be at least 1.5 points higher with Chase, and several points higher if Burrow is back.
Houston without Stroud for one more week. This current rating is a “Davis Mills starting” number, as Houston, on a short week, looks set to be without QB C.J. Stroud again.
Atlanta without Michael Penix for likely rest of year, and also no Drake London. The Atlanta rating has been adjusted for QB Kirk Cousins playing in place of Penix, and also for being without WR Drake London for at least this week. He is week-to-week, and when he returns, we will see a slight bump back.
Pittsburgh and an uncertain Aaron Rodgers situation. This Steelers number is with QB Mason Rudolph playing for Rodgers, who has not been officially ruled out despite a fracture in his non-throwing wrist.
Cleveland and Shedeur Sanders. Sanders will likely get his first career start at QB in Las Vegas. This number has been bumped lower with that news. Sanders went 4-for-16 for 47 yards, an interception, and two sacks when coming off the bench to replace Dillon Gabriel.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 11
Here are the Week 11 ratings. These are mostly listed as “this week’s” power rankings, although they will also represent the season rating for most teams.
However, some teams may have different ratings in later weeks due to injuries and the expected return dates of key players. Refer to the notes below for any teams with a significantly different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.6 |
| 2 | LA Rams | 6.6 | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| 3 | Detroit | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.7 |
| 4 | Seattle | 5.6 | 5.0 | 6.2 |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| 6 | Baltimore | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 8 | Buffalo | 4.6 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| 9 | Green Bay | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| 10 | LA Chargers | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 11 | Denver | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| 12 | New England | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 13 | San Francisco | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 14 | Tampa Bay | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 15 | Minnesota | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Jacksonville | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Houston | -0.8 | -3.4 | 5.0 |
| 19 | Dallas | -1.0 | -1.6 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Chicago | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.5 |
| 21 | Arizona | -2.0 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| 22 | Miami | -2.3 | -5.4 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Atlanta | -2.6 | -1.4 | -3.0 |
| 24 | Cincinnati | -4.1 | -5.1 | -5.0 |
| 25 | NY Giants | -4.5 | -3.9 | -4.5 |
| 26 | Carolina | -5.0 | -4.1 | -5.3 |
| 27 | Cleveland | -5.4 | -5.9 | -6.4 |
| 28 | Washington | -5.5 | -4.0 | -2.3 |
| 29 | Las Vegas | -5.7 | -5.0 | -6.1 |
| 30 | New Orleans | -7.1 | -8.0 | -8.2 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -7.9 | -7.3 | -6.2 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.9 | -8.7 | -9.0 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
Joe Burrow Timeline is More Aggressive than We Projected. We were mostly building in the risk of return around Week 15, but Joe Burrow has begun limited practices, and his 21-day window has been opened to return from IR. That puts him at starting either Week 13 on Thanksgiving against Baltimore, or the next week against Buffalo, as his first game back.
Our Giants Rating Mostly Assumes that Russell Wilson will start at QB this week. Jaxson Dart left the last game with a concussion, and head coach Brian Daboll was fired. We think it’s more likely than not that Dart will miss the next game.
This week’s Houston rating is a partial split between C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills at QB. As we expected, Davis Mills started the last game for Houston. Stroud could return, but is still in concussion protocol, so there is still a risk he misses a second game.
Washington QB Jayden Daniels did not go on IR … yet. Reports came out that Jayden Daniels would not need surgery and that he might not have to go on IR. We thought he would likely be shut down, but we have built in some chance that he returns in Week 13 or later. That said, we still think he is going to miss more time than that as a baseline expectation, and also think that if it pushes too late in the season, he may not return for a team that is currently at 3-7.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 10
Here are the Week 10 ratings. Treat them as this week’s power ratings; for most teams, they also represent the season rating.
However, some teams will vary in later weeks due to injuries and expected return dates for key players. Check the notes below for any teams with a meaningfully different future rating.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| 2 | Detroit | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| 3 | LA Rams | 5.8 | 5.3 | 6.6 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 5.5 | 4.6 | 6.2 |
| 5 | Baltimore | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| 6 | Seattle | 5.0 | 3.3 | 5.4 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| 8 | Green Bay | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.6 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 10 | Denver | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 11 | Tampa Bay | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| 12 | San Francisco | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| 13 | LA Chargers | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 14 | New England | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| 16 | Minnesota | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
| 17 | Jacksonville | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Arizona | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.2 |
| 19 | Atlanta | -1.4 | -2.6 | -2.9 |
| 20 | Dallas | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.7 |
| 21 | Chicago | -1.6 | -1.2 | -1.6 |
| 22 | Houston | -3.4 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| 23 | NY Giants | -3.9 | -3.3 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Washington | -4.0 | -2.2 | -1.4 |
| 25 | Carolina | -4.1 | -5.3 | -4.1 |
| 26 | Las Vegas | -5.0 | -5.4 | -6.8 |
| 27 | Cincinnati | -5.1 | -4.6 | -4.9 |
| 28 | Miami | -5.4 | -4.5 | -5.6 |
| 29 | Cleveland | -5.9 | -5.5 | -6.2 |
| 30 | NY Jets | -7.3 | -6.3 | -6.3 |
| 31 | New Orleans | -8.0 | -7.2 | -9.2 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.7 | -8.7 | -9.1 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
We are assuming Washington QB Jayden Daniels does not return. This Washington power rating is based on QB Marcus Mariota as the starting quarterback, after Daniels suffered a dislocated elbow. Even if the recovery timeline might allow him to return at the end of the year, we think it is very unlikely, given that the 3-6 Commanders are three games out of a playoff spot in both the conference and division.
The Bengals’ slide reduces Burrow’s return potential. We are still building in some chance that Joe Burrow returns in the final month, though the Bengals’ inability to “finish the *$%# game” reduces the odds they are still in the AFC North mix in early December. As a result, we have downgraded the Bengals slightly in the final weeks from where we had them.
Jets trade defensive stars. This power rating is updated to reflect a projection on the Jets for the rest of the year now that they have traded away both CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams for future first-round picks.
Texans’ rating assumes QB C.J. Stroud could miss this week. We think it is more likely than not that Houston QB C.J. Stroud misses the game this week after suffering a concussion on Sunday. However, our power rating for future weeks is back to closer to teams like the Chargers and New England.
Chargers suffer a big loss on offense. Speaking of the Chargers, their power rating is down this week after LT John Alt was lost for the season. He’s one of the more valuable non-quarterbacks, especially after the team already had lost the other tackle, Rashawn Slater, in the preseason.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 9
Here are the adjusted ratings for Week 9. These can be thought of as “right now” power ratings, though they should also be the season rating for most teams.
However, we do have different ratings on some teams in later weeks based on projected injury impacts and returns. See the notes below for where a team’s rating may be notably different in future weeks:
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 7.3 | 7.1 | 8.3 |
| 2 | Detroit | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.8 |
| 3 | Green Bay | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| 4 | LA Rams | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| 5 | Indianapolis | 5.1 | 4.2 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Buffalo | 4.6 | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| 7 | Baltimore | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Philadelphia | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| 9 | Seattle | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| 10 | Denver | 3.2 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| 11 | LA Chargers | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| 12 | Houston | 2.2 | 1.4 | 5.2 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 14 | New England | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 15 | San Francisco | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Jacksonville | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Minnesota | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| 19 | Dallas | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
| 20 | Chicago | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.8 |
| 21 | Arizona | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.1 |
| 22 | Washington | -2.2 | -1.9 | 0.2 |
| 23 | Atlanta | -2.6 | -0.4 | -3.4 |
| 24 | NY Giants | -3.3 | -1.5 | -3.9 |
| 25 | Miami | -4.5 | -4.6 | -4.5 |
| 26 | Cincinnati | -4.6 | -2.3 | -4.6 |
| 27 | Carolina | -5.3 | -5.1 | -5.1 |
| 28 | Las Vegas | -5.4 | -6.2 | -6.9 |
| 29 | Cleveland | -5.5 | -4.7 | -6.1 |
| 30 | NY Jets | -6.3 | -7.0 | -6.4 |
| 31 | New Orleans | -7.2 | -5.6 | -9.0 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.7 | -8.4 | -9.2 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
The Top and Bottom of the NFL continue to separate. It was a week with lots of blowouts, and the only two upsets involved favorites who rated below average in our power ratings entering the week.
Washington without QB Jayden Daniels. The Washington number right now mostly assumes Daniels is a risk to miss Week 9 as well.
Still Building In Joe Burrow uncertainty. Later weeks in the season include a potential adjustment for a Burrow return.
Lamar Jackson expected back, part deux. Jackson did not play in Week 8, but is supposed to play in Week 9 when Baltimore opens the week at Miami on Thursday Night Football. This rating assumes he is playing.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 8
Here are the adjusted ratings for Week 8.
| RANK | TEAM | ADJUSTED RATING | LAST WEEK | TR RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 7.1 | 5.9 | 7.1 |
| 2 | Detroit | 6.6 | 5.2 | 7.7 |
| 3 | LA Rams | 5.5 | 3.9 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 5.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Indianapolis | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| 6 | Buffalo | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| 7 | Philadelphia | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Baltimore | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| 9 | Seattle | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| 10 | San Francisco | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 11 | Denver | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| 13 | Houston | 1.4 | 1.9 | 4.6 |
| 14 | LA Chargers | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.6 |
| 15 | New England | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 17 | Dallas | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| 18 | Minnesota | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 19 | Atlanta | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| 20 | Jacksonville | -0.7 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
| 21 | Chicago | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| 22 | Arizona | -1.4 | -1.7 | -1.0 |
| 23 | NY Giants | -1.5 | -2.7 | -3.5 |
| 24 | Washington | -1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 25 | Cincinnati | -2.3 | -5.9 | -4.0 |
| 26 | Miami | -4.6 | -4.6 | -5.1 |
| 27 | Cleveland | -4.7 | -4.7 | -5.4 |
| 28 | Carolina | -5.1 | -3.9 | -3.3 |
| 29 | New Orleans | -5.6 | -5.8 | -8.2 |
| 30 | Las Vegas | -6.2 | -4.9 | -7.1 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -7.0 | -6.2 | -7.0 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -8.4 | -7.7 | -9.0 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
Baltimore comes with a caveat. We think Lamar Jackson will return at quarterback, but not practicing on Monday casts some uncertainty. This number is an “if Jackson plays” rating. Take off 7 points if he is out.
Chiefs continue to the top. The Chiefs justified our placement atop the power ratings with a 31-0 dismantling of Las Vegas, which wasn’t even that close.
Washington without QB Jayden Daniels. This Washington number in the coming weeks reflects that he will likely miss multiple games.
Bengals make a big move. Cincinnati’s offense got back on track with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco in his first full week in Cincinnati, feeding WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As a result, we are moving Cincinnati up between where they were with Joe Burrow at quarterback and how they played with Jake Browning. The win over Pittsburgh also has the added benefit of increasing the likelihood that the team is still alive in the playoff picture entering December, when Burrow could return.
Carolina wins, but Bryce Young out. Our Carolina rating drops slightly, despite the win, with Bryce Young likely missing this week with a high ankle sprain. Andy Dalton will take over at QB.
Giants trend upward. The Giants continue to rise in our ratings, ahead of where the raw numbers would have them for the season, thanks to QB Jaxson Dart’s impact.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 7
Here are the adjusted ratings for Week 7.
| Rank | Team | Adjusted Rating | Last Week | TR Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 5.9 | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| 2 | Green Bay | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| 3 | Detroit | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.7 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| 5 | LA Rams | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 3.6 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| 7 | Baltimore | 3.6 | -5.4 | 0.1 |
| 8 | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| 9 | Seattle | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Washington | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 11 | Denver | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 12 | Houston | 1.9 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| 14 | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 15 | San Francisco | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Minnesota | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 0.9 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Jacksonville | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 19 | New England | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| 20 | Atlanta | 0.1 | -0.8 | 0.1 |
| 21 | Dallas | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.4 |
| 22 | Chicago | -0.6 | -1.3 | -0.6 |
| 23 | Arizona | -1.7 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| 24 | NY Giants | -2.7 | -4.7 | -4.2 |
| 25 | Carolina | -3.9 | -5.8 | -3.6 |
| 26 | Miami | -4.6 | -4.3 | -5.1 |
| 27 | Cleveland | -4.7 | -4.0 | -7.3 |
| 28 | Las Vegas | -4.9 | -4.3 | -5.6 |
| 29 | New Orleans | -5.8 | -5.4 | -8.2 |
| 30 | Cincinnati | -5.9 | -6.8 | -4.5 |
| 31 | NY Jets | -6.2 | -4.8 | -6.3 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -7.7 | -7.0 | -8.1 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
Baltimore moves up. The Ravens are currently on a bye week, but we moved them up nine points in our ratings with the expectation that Lamar Jackson and several defensive starters will potentially return in Week 8.
Chiefs rising. Kansas City also received a positive adjustment with WR1 Rashee Rice returning from suspension. They enter Week 7 as our top power-rated team.
San Francisco takes another injury hit. With star linebacker Fred Warner out for the season, San Francisco’s short-term rating dips, though we still project a slight rebound in future weeks as offensive players (Purdy, Kittle, Pearsall) return.
Will Joe Burrow return? Cincinnati’s slide lowers our confidence in a late-season Joe Burrow return. We’ll still bump the Bengals’ late-season rating slightly to reflect a nonzero chance he plays, and we’ll update as new information comes in.
Lighter downgrades in Week 18. The Week 6 results increased playoff uncertainty for several teams, and multiple divisions now look tight late.
Adjusted NFL Power Ratings: Week 6
Here are the adjusted ratings for Week 6.
| Rank | Team | Adjusted Rating | TR Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| 2 | Detroit | 5.4 | 8.0 |
| 3 | Buffalo | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| 4 | Kansas City | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| 5 | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| 6 | LA Rams | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| 8 | Denver | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| 9 | Houston | 2.5 | 5.4 |
| 10 | Washington | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| 11 | Seattle | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 12 | LA Chargers | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 14 | San Francisco | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 15 | Jacksonville | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| 16 | Minnesota | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| 17 | New England | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| 18 | Atlanta | -0.8 | -1.3 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh | -0.8 | 0.2 |
| 20 | Dallas | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Arizona | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Chicago | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| 23 | Cleveland | -4.0 | -6.7 |
| 24 | Miami | -4.3 | -5.3 |
| 25 | Las Vegas | -4.3 | -6.1 |
| 26 | NY Giants | -4.7 | -6.4 |
| 27 | NY Jets | -4.8 | -7.1 |
| 28 | New Orleans | -5.4 | -8.4 |
| 29 | Baltimore | -5.4 | 1.5 |
| 30 | Carolina | -5.8 | -4.0 |
| 31 | Cincinnati | -6.8 | -4.3 |
| 32 | Tennessee | -7.0 | -7.5 |
Adjusted Ratings Notes
- Baltimore’s current rating has plummeted due to defense injuries and Lamar Jackson’s absence last week and probably Week 6. However, we have a notably higher rating after their Week 7 bye (+3.6, nine points higher).
- We are a little less certain about Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow’s status, but we do have an adjustment that builds in some potential for him to return and gradually increases the rating starting at Week 14.
- Kansas City’s rating is a bit higher after Week 8, when WR Rashee Rice is expected to have returned from suspension and had a game to join the team.
- San Francisco’s rating starts to go up next week and rises to +2.5 by Week 11, when TE George Kittle will have returned and WR Brandon Aiyuk will be working back from his knee injury (and hopefully, other starters will also be healthier).
- Tampa Bay and Dallas’ ratings are a bit higher after the projected returns of WR Mike Evans and WR CeeDee Lamb, respectively.
- Several teams have been downgraded in Week 18 for potential rest risk, particularly those with over 50% odds of winning their division.
Methodology
How Our NFL Power Ratings Work
Our automated NFL Power Ratings are based primarily on point differential from each game. While this is a solid foundation, it comes with two key limitations:
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They do not account for injury situations or player absences.
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They may overvalue teams that benefited from turnovers, missed kicks, or other luck-driven outcomes.
As a result, a team can appear stronger or weaker than it truly is, depending on how those game factors played out.
Why Context Matters
A good example of this came in Week 5.
Detroit did not face the same Cincinnati team that Cleveland faced in Week 1 (Joe Burrow injury, etc), and Houston did not see the same Baltimore team that Buffalo did early in the season (Lamar Jackson and others injured).
However, in automated predictive models, those are all treated as games against the same version of an opponent. That’s where manual adjustment becomes essential.
How We Refine Survivor Projections
For our NFL Survivor Picks and Circa Survivor products, we take the automated power ratings and make weekly adjustments to bring them in line with market odds and injury news.
This process helps us form a more realistic view of how each team should be valued and which matchups carry the most survivor appeal.
Looking Ahead
These adjusted ratings not only influence our current survivor recommendations but also drive our future week projections. This allows us to identify when certain teams will likely be stronger favorites down the road and plan accordingly.
We’ll now be publishing these updated numbers each week going forward, so you can see the same adjusted data that powers our internal models.