NFL Week 1 Mega Preview: Breaking Down All 16 Games (2024)
Our NFL Week 1 preview features over 10,000 words of predictions, odds, analysis, and news to get you ready for the start of the 2024 season.
August 29, 2024 - by Seth Trachtman
Lamar Jackson is hoping 2024 is the year the Ravens get back to the promised land.
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season starts Thursday, September 5, with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s a numbers-driven preview of all 16 games, including the latest news, spreads, picks, odds, stats, injuries, preseason outlooks, betting trends, and more.
We dare you to read it all!
Note: All picks and model predictions in this article reflect data as of Wednesday, August 28, 2024, and are subject to change up to kickoff time. Our models always use the latest available data to predict games, so check the site for the most recent numbers.
Links to NFL Week 1 Game Previews
Baltimore at Kansas City | Green Bay vs. Philadelphia | New England at Cincinnati | Arizona at Buffalo | Tennessee at Chicago | Jacksonville at Miami | Carolina at New Orleans | Pittsburgh at Atlanta | Minnesota at NY Giants | Houston at Indianapolis | Denver at Seattle | Las Vegas at LA Chargers | Washington at Tampa Bay | Dallas at Cleveland | LA Rams at Detroit | NY Jets at San Francisco
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NFL Picks, Predictions, and Tools for 2024
Before we begin, a quick reminder that we’ve got an assortment of NFL picks, predictions, rankings, and tools available across our three brands (TeamRankings, BetIQ, PoolGenius):
Betting Picks: Spread, Over/Under
Pool Picks: Survivor pools, Pick’em contests
Fantasy Rankings: Best Ball, Season-Long
Season Projections: Data, Preseason Article
1. Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Game Time: Thursday, September 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point Spread: Kansas City -2.5
News & Notes
The two-time defending champion Chiefs open the NFL Week 1 slate for the second consecutive year, facing the Ravens in a much-anticipated AFC Championship rematch. The matchup features the top two teams in our predictive ratings, with the Chiefs having a very slight edge over Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens
Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is coming off another impressive statistical season with over 3,600 passing yards and 800 rushing yards, yet he hasn’t been able to get the Ravens to a Super Bowl after falling short to Kansas City last year in the AFC Championship. He has more help this season as the Ravens added former Titans RB Derrick Henry to the backfield to replace Gus Edward and J.K. Dobbins. Henry continues to build his case for the Hall of Fame, likely surpassing 10,000 career rushing yards this season, though his yards per carry average has been well under five for three consecutive seasons. Jackson does lose Odell Beckham Jr. from last year’s squad, but WR Zay Flowers has one more year under his belt after a great rookie campaign, and TE Mark Andrews is healthy after playing only 10 games last year.
Baltimore’s defense was top three in points in each of the last two years under coordinator Mike Macdonald, so his loss could be impactful. The team also lost former first-round LB Patrick Queen, but they were able to retain key pieces like DT Justin Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy. Other key players on the defense include DB Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey, and LB Roquan Smith, who has been first-team All-Pro in back-to-back seasons. The team also added first-round CB Nate Wiggins.
Kansas City Chiefs
For all the hoopla of the Chiefs offense, last year was arguably QB Patrick Mahomes’ worst on the stats sheet. Much of the issue was a lack of reliable receivers, so Kansas City has addressed that issue by adding WR Hollywood Brown and first-round WR Xavier Worthy to WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce. The added speed should lead to the more explosive offense we’d grown accustomed to seeing in previous years and also allow RB Isiah Pacheco more room to run as he tries to pad his 4.7 yards per carry average from his first two NFL seasons.
The Chiefs wouldn’t have had the success they did in 2023 without a dominant defense that ranked second in points and yards during the regular season. The pass rush was particularly stout (3rd in sack rate), led by DT Chris Jones. The team faces the notable losses of DBs L’Jarius Sneed and Mike Edwards, providing an opportunity for several young players to take on bigger roles alongside CB Trent McDuffie and S Justin Reid.
Key Injuries/Absences
Baltimore: RB Keaton Mitchell was placed on the PUP list after tearing his ACL last season. He will miss at least the first four games. CB Trayvon Mullen suffered a dislocated shoulder in the preseason, and his status is in question.
Kansas City: DL Charles Omenihu was placed on the PUP list after tearing his ACL in last year’s AFC Championship. He’s expected to return at some point in 2024. WR Hollywood Brown could miss Week 1 with a shoulder injury suffered in Week 1 of the preseason.
Betting Blurbs
- Super Bowl Champs: The defending Super Bowl champion is 9-5 SU and 6-6-2 ATS in its season opener over the last 14 years.
- Masterful Reid: The Chiefs have finished with a winning record every year since Andy Reid took over in 2013. Under Reid, they’ve had the best record in the NFL at 144-58, and they’ve been the fifth-most profitable at 108-89-5 (54.8%) ATS.
- Harbaugh’s Week 1 Dominance: John Harbaugh’s Ravens are 12-4 SU and ATS in Week 1 since he was hired in 2008.
Season Outlook
Kansas City opens the season ranked No. 1 in our predictive ratings, with a 21% chance to win the top seed in the AFC and a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl. Baltimore barely trails, ranking No. 3 in our predictive ratings with a 15% chance to be the No. 1 seed and an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Kansas City (54.6% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
2. Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Game Time: Friday, September 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Point Spread: Philadelphia -2.5
News & Notes
The Packers and Eagles will make history with the first regular season game ever in South America (São Paulo, Brazil), which also happens to be a Friday night affair (pick’em pool players take note!).
As for the matchup, it features a pair of 2023 playoff teams whose vibes couldn’t have been more opposite by last season’s end. Philly lost six of their last seven games, including a Wild Card weekend loss, while Green Bay finished strong, giving the eventual NFC Champion 49ers all they could handle in the Divisional Round after beating Dallas.
Green Bay Packers
The arrow is pointing upward for the Packers offense, thanks to the rapid improvement of QB Jordan Love. He finished with an impressive 62.1 QBR in his first season as a starter and was on fire over his last eight regular season games, completing 70.3% of his passes with 18 TDs to 1 INT. Green Bay paid him accordingly with a four-year, $220 million contract. He also has a group of exciting young weapons, including WRs Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, along with TE Luke Musgrave and new RB Josh Jacobs.
The defense has seen some significant changes, led by the hiring of former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley as coordinator. While the team returns most of their front seven, they’ve made big changes at safety with veteran Xavier McKinney and three draft picks led by second-rounder Javon Bullard. The team also hopes for better health from star CB Jaire Alexander, who played only seven games last year.
Philadelphia Eagles
Even with a playoff appearance, the 2023 season was unsatisfactory for the Eagles after nearing winning the Super Bowl the previous year. They’ve tried to address the issues by signing former Giants star RB Saquon Barkley and WR Parris Campbell to help QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts still has top weapons, WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, as well as TE Dallas Goedert, at his disposal. The bigger question will be the effectiveness of the team’s short-yardage “tush push” play without now-retired 13-year starting center Jason Kelce.
There was no debate about changes that needed to be made on defense for a team that allowed the third most points last season. Philly hired acclaimed coordinator Vic Fangio after Miami cut him loose and has gotten younger on defense after losing Fletcher Cox, Haason Reddick, Zach Cunningham, Kevin Byard, Bradley Roby, and others. The offseason wasn’t without impact additions, including LBs Bryce Huff, Zack Baun, and Devin White, and DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but a heavy burden will be on the team’s recent draft picks like Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith Jr., and Quinyon Mitchell. All the changes might not be conducive to a fast start.
Key Injuries/Absences
Green Bay: RB AJ Dillon was treated with caution in the preseason due to his history of neck injuries and was placed on season-ending IR. Rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd will likely be out for Week 1, leaving the team a little thin behind Josh Jacobs in the opener.
Philadelphia: S Sydney Brown was placed on the PUP list at the start of training camp with a knee injury.
Betting Blurbs
- Welcome Matt: The Packers have the best ATS record in the NFL since HC Matt LaFleur was hired in 2019 at 53-37 (58.9%).
- Eagles Not Flying High: Despite overall team success since HC Nick Sirianni was hired in 2021, the team is only 25-28-3 (47.2%) ATS.
Season Outlook
Green Bay is our No. 7 team entering the season, with a 65% chance to return to the playoffs. Philly isn’t far behind at No. 8 with a 71% chance to make the playoffs.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Philadelphia (56.1% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
3. New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Cincinnati -9.0
News & Notes
The Patriots sideline will look different without head coach Bill Belichick for the first time this century. Jerod Mayo takes over for the clearly rebuilding Patriots.
Cincinnati is in a different state of play, hoping to rebound from a disappointing 9-8 season that saw QB Joe Burrow sidelined for much of the year due to calf and wrist injuries.
New England Patriots
The Patriots will have a new starting quarterback in Week 1, but it’s unclear as training camp opens whether it will be Jacoby Brissett or rookie first-round pick Drake Maye. The quarterbacks will have RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson in support, though the wide receiver room looks different with K.J. Osborn and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker competing with DeMario Douglas for snaps. The team could also employ plenty of two tight end sets with Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
The defense has long been New England’s calling card under the direction of Belichick, though it dropped to 14th in points allowed last season due in part to some key injuries. The defense is in rough shape after trading DE Matthew Judon and losing DT Christian Barmore to blood clots. The team saw promising play from CB Christian Gonzalez early last season before he suffered a season-ending injury. It’s hard to believe Belichick’s absence won’t be felt, but the full impact of his loss remains to be seen.
Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow played only 10 games last season, nagged by a calf injury before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. He will look to shake off the rust with trusty WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The backfield does get a new look now that Joe Mixon has departed, with RBs Zack Moss and Chase Brown likely to share the load.
The defense collapsed last season after major changes in the secondary, ranking second worst in yards allowed. That area was addressed with a new pair of safeties in Geno Stone and the return of Vonn Bell after one year in Carolina, while the pass rush also got a boost with DT Sheldon Rankins and second-round pick Kris Jenkins Jr. The key to the Bengals pass rush is still on the edges with DEs Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard.
Key Injuries/Absences
New England: WR Kendrick Bourne will start the year on the PUP list and miss at least the first four weeks with a knee injury. DT Christian Barmore had blood clots early in training camp, and his status for the 2024 season remains up in the air. LB Sione Takitaki will miss at least the first four games with a knee injury. C Jake Andrews is out for the season.
Cincinnati: EDGE Cam Sample is out for the year with a torn Achilles. RB Chris Evans won’t play this season due to a knee injury.
Betting Blurbs
- Road Warriors: HC Jerod Mayo has big shoes to fill in New England, and bettors have been particularly profitable with the team on the road. Since 2003, the Pats are 99-73-3 (57.6%) ATS in away games.
- Don’t Bet on the Skyline: The Bengals opened as Week 1’s biggest favorite. Since HC Zac Taylor was hired in 2019, Cincinnati is 6-3 SU as favorites of 7+ points but only 3-6 ATS.
Season Outlook
The rebuild season for the Patriots is reflected in their No. 31 predictive ranking, with a paltry 6% chance of making the playoffs. Our predictive ratings see a rebound season for the Bengals as the No. 6 team, with a 69% chance to make the playoffs.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Cincinnati (76.5% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
4. Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Buffalo -6.0
News & Notes
This Week 1 matchup features two organizations that couldn’t be in more opposite positions in terms of general climate or 2024 expectations.
Arizona is coming off their second straight 4-13 season and has new complementary pieces on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Buffalo won their fourth consecutive AFC East title last year, but they’ve fallen in the Divisional Round of the playoffs in each of those seasons as they try to get over the hump.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals deserve a mulligan for last season, in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s first season, with QB Kyler Murray returning from ACL surgery in Week 10. The team did what they could to build around him in the offseason with six draft picks on that side of the ball, led by WR Marvin Harrison Jr. The team also added significant offensive line depth and perhaps their running back of the future with third-round RB Trey Benson behind veteran RB James Conner.
The defense has also seen big changes, adding around homegrown stars LB Zaven Collins and S Budda Baker. DE Darius Robinson could provide a boost to a pass rush that ranked 25th in sack rate last season, and the team also added multiple veteran starters led by former Tampa Bay CB Sean Murphy-Bunting.
Buffalo Bills
QB Josh Allen garnered MVP consideration for the third time in his career last season, but he could find life more difficult this year with new faces around him. Most notably, the Bills traded star WR Stefon Diggs and moved on from WR Gabe Davis, replacing them with WRs Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. WR Khalil Shakir should have a bigger role after a breakout 2023 season, and TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be called upon regularly. RB James Cook does return after showing he could handle a big workload (281 touches) last season.
Leading sacker Leonard Floyd has departed from last year’s squad, though the Bills have added DE Dawuane Smoot to a defense that ranked fifth in sack rate. They also hope a healthier DE Von Miller can fill the void. Like Miller, LB Matt Milano missed time last season and could miss most of 2024 with more injury issues. The secondary is reworked, particularly at safety. Buffalo is going younger with Taylor Rapp and rookie Cole Bishop and will also count on 2023 midseason acquisition CB Rasul Douglas.
Key Injuries/Absences
Arizona: WR Zay Jones is facing a suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. LB BJ Ojulari will miss the season due to a torn ACL. DL Darius Robinson could miss Week 1 due to a calf injury.
Buffalo: LB Matt Milano is set to miss significant time due to a biceps injury. QB Mitchell Trubisky is battling a knee injury, and his status is undetermined. WR Curtis Samuel has turf toe and could miss Week 1. WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a neck injury, and his status for Week 1 is unclear.
Betting Blurbs
- Paying the Bills: The Bills have been profitable since HC Sean McDermott’s hiring in 2017 at 63-55-7 ATS (53.4%).
- Early Offense: Arizona’s over record was 10-7 in HC Jonathan Gannon‘s first season as the head coach.
Season Outlook
Arizona opens the year 24th in our predictive ratings with a 21% chance to make the playoffs. Buffalo is favored to win the AFC East again with a 37% chance and No. 5 ranking in our predictive ratings.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Buffalo (67.0% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
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5. Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Chicago -4.0
News & Notes
The Titans made offseason headlines with the firing of head coach Mike Vrabel and the subsequent hiring of Brian Callahan, along with several high-profile personnel changes that they hope put them on the right track after two losing seasons.
Chicago made huge headlines of its own in its rebuild, moving on from QB Justin Fields in favor of No. 1 overall draft choice Caleb Williams and several notable weapons.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans moved on from the face of the franchise, RB Derrick Henry, in the offseason, though they added several players to fill the void. They include RB Tony Pollard and WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, plus multiple new starting offensive linemen. Second-year QB Will Levis appears to have an improved supporting cast to help, and the hiring of acclaimed OL coach Bill Callahan should also benefit him as the offense tries to improve from its 27th ranking in points last year.
The defense also made waves, especially on the backend. They feature three new veteran starters led by CBs L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, hoping to improve a unit that struggled to stop the pass or create turnovers last season. The pass rush still has key players DT Jeffery Simmons and OLB Harold Landry, but they have added reinforcements DE Sebastian Joseph-Day and rookie NT T’Vondre Sweat.
Chicago Bears
The excitement in the Windy City is apparent with former USC star Caleb Williams under center. In addition to holdovers WR DJ Moore and TE Cole Kmet, the Bears have added veteran WR Keenan Allen and first-round pick Rome Odunze. Chicago also spent big to acquire RB D’Andre Swift, coming off a career year in Philadelphia. The offense also has a new scheme with Seahawks OC Shane Waldron taking the reins.
Chicago’s defense showed improvement late last season after acquiring DE Montez Sweat, and hope to build on that momentum. They spent big last offseason, but the Bear’s defensive moves were less noisy this year, with the exception of veteran S Kevin Byard. The sack rate was dead last in the league despite Sweat’s addition so that the onus will be on him and DE DeMarcus Walker to generate more pass rush.
Key Injuries/Absences
Tennessee: WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable for the start of the season due to a knee injury.
Chicago: S Jaquan Brisker missed preseason games due to injury but is expected to play in Week 1.
Betting Blurbs
- Status Quo: The favorite has won the last six matchups between the Titans and Bears, dating back to 1998.
- “Ebs” and Flows: Despite a winning ATS record last season, the Bears are only 13-18-3 (41.9%) ATS under HC Matt Eberflus.
Season Outlook
Tennessee is projected to finish last in the AFC South with only a 16% chance to make the playoffs, ranking No. 26 in predictive ratings. Chicago was one of last season’s most improved teams, +4 wins from 2022, and has a 48% chance to make the playoffs, ranking No. 16 in our predictive ratings.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Chicago (64.1% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
6. Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Miami -3.5
News & Notes
The Jaguars finished 9-8 for the second consecutive season but failed to make the playoffs in 2023, while Miami advanced as a Wild Card for the second straight year. We can only hope the players are well-hydrated in this early-season battle of the Sunshine State.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After paying QB Trevor Lawrence, the Jags have needed to pull back on some of their spending in the last two offseasons. That means some significant changes, particularly at wideout, where Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. will replace Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones. WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, and RB Travis Etienne still stand as formidable weapons for Lawrence as he tries to increase last year’s 22.2 points per game, and the offensive line is also improved with former Pro Bowler C Mitch Morse.
The defense is now under the direction of former Falcons DC Ryan Nielsen after sputtering last year, ranking 16th in points and 19th in yards allowed. The team added DTs Arik Armstead and rookie Maason Smith, helping edge rushers Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen. Jacksonville has also added CBs Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage at cornerback.
Miami Dolphins
With a healthy QB, Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins offense joined elite status in 2023. Through the playoffs, they ranked third in points and yards and have a seemingly endless number of weapons after adding WR Odell Beckham Jr. and TE Jonnu Smith to the likes of WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert, and RB De’Von Achane. Keeping Tagovailoa healthy and upright will be key, as last year was the first time he played a full season since entering the league in 2020.
Head coach Mike McDaniel has made a change as a defensive coordinator for the second time in as many years, replacing Vic Fangio with Anthony Weaver. The team has also had some big defensive personnel changes, losing DL Christian Wilkins, LB Kyle Van Ginkel, and CB Xavien Howard, among others. The Dolphins have added proven veterans DL Calais Campbell, LB Jordyn Brooks, CB Kendall Fuller, and S Jordan Poyer, and that experience could make the transition to new coaching easier. Miami also still has defensive stars DE Zach Sieler, OLB Jaelan Phillips, OLB Bradley Chubb, CB Jalen Ramsey, and S Jevon Holland.
Key Injuries/Absences
Jacksonville: WR Christian Kirk missed some practice time with a calf injury, but it doesn’t sound serious.
Miami: LB Bradley Chubb will start the year on the PUP list as he recovers from a knee injury. WR Odell Beckham Jr. also starts the year on the PUP and will miss at least the first month. CB Cam Smith was considered week to week-in the preseason due to a hamstring injury.
Betting Blurbs
- A Winner: The Jaguars have back-to-back winning ATS seasons under HC Doug Pederson and are 19-17 ATS overall.
- Defending the Aquarium: Miami has been one of the NFL’s best home teams ATS since hiring HC Mike McDaniel at 11-6.
Season Outlook
Both teams have realistic playoff hopes in 2024, with Miami sporting a 57% chance and Jacksonville having a 42% chance. Our predictive ratings put the Dolphins at No. 11 and the Jags at No. 15, respectively.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Miami (63.9% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
7. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: New Orleans -4.0
News & Notes
The NFC South will see an early-season battle between two teams desperate to reach the playoffs after recent droughts.
New Orleans hasn’t reached the playoffs in the last three years despite two winning seasons over that time. Much of their personnel is the same as last season, but the team did make offensive coaching changes as HC Dennis Allen enters his third year at the helm.
Carolina made more drastic changes in a plan to support second-year QB Bryce Young. Frank Reich failed to last even one full season as head coach, and the team hired former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales to right the ship.
New Orleans Saints
Saints fans miss the high-powered offenses that became routine in the Sean Payton/Drew Brees years, but the team did make progress last season under QB Derek Carr. The long-time Raiders quarterback led an offense that finished 10th in points while playing through injury. Much of the offensive personnel is status quo, but the team hired Klint Kubiak to call plays and will have at least two new starting linemen, including first-round LT Taliese Fuaga. Third-year WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are developing nicely, and RB Alvin Kamara remains reliable even if he’s lost some burst, with a streak of seven straight seasons with at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage.
The defense has been the team’s strength with Allen aboard, and that continued last season with a unit that was sixth in points and 13th in yards. The faces of the defense are proven veterans, including DE Cameron Jordan, MLB DeMario Davis, CB Marshon Lattimore, and S Tyrann Mathieu. We’ve started to see a decline from some players in that group, so the pressure is on DEs Carl Granderson and Payton Turner, as well as LB Peter Werner and CB Paulson Adebo, to continue their progression.
Carolina Panthers
There’s real anxiety in Carolina that the team botched the first overall draft choice last year, selecting Bryce Young instead of C.J. Stroud. Young had a lackluster rookie season with a 33.4 QBR, though he wasn’t exactly put in a position to succeed with a poor supporting cast and coaching change at midseason. Dave Canales was credited with reviving Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay last season and has weapons to help Young this year with WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette added to veteran Adam Thielen. The team also added two new starting guards and rookie RB Jonathon Brooks.
We also saw a decline in Carolina’s defense last season, which allowed the fourth most points in the league despite ranking third-best in yards. Coordinator Ejiro Evero was retained, but the team moved on from leading sacker Brian Burns, leading tackler Frankie Luvu, and safety Vonn Bell. The Panthers opted to fill those voids with veterans, including Jadeveon Clowney, A’Shawn Robinson, and Josey Jewell. The continued development of former first-round picks DE Derrick Brown and CB Jaycee Horn will also be key to the defensive success.
Key Injuries/Absences
Carolina: RB Jonathon Brooks will miss at least the first four games on the non-football injury list after tearing his ACL. LB D.J. Wonnum will miss at least the first four games with a quad injury.
New Orleans: RB Kendre Miller will miss at least four games due to a hamstring injury. WR Rashid Shaheed was nursing a foot injury in training camp. DT Khalen Saunders could miss Week 1 with a calf injury. DE Tanoh Kpassagnon was placed on the active/PUP list with a torn Achilles.
Betting Blurbs
- Panthers Not Roaring: Carolina not only led the NFL in losses last season, but were also the worst team ATS at 4-11-2 (26.7%).
- Allen Wretched: Dennis Allen is 25-39-2 ATS in four seasons as a head coach for both the Raiders and Saints.
Season Outlook
Our projections see these two teams finishing at the bottom of the division, with the Saints having a 32% chance to make the playoffs and the Panthers a 14% chance. New Orleans opens the year ranked No. 25 in our predictive ratings, while Carolina is dead last.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: New Orleans (61.0% win odds)
Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits
8. Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Atlanta -3.0
News & Notes
We don’t have to wait long for a revenge game storyline in 2024. New Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith faces the team that recently fired him as head coach and is tasked with fixing a Pittsburgh offense that has sputtered in recent seasons.
Perhaps no team has seen bigger offseason changes than the Falcons, which hired a new coaching staff led by Raheem Morris and signed veteran QB Kirk Cousins for big money after his Achilles injury in Minnesota.
Pittsburgh Steelers
In addition to the change at offensive coordinator, the Steelers have a new quarterback room. After the flameout of 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett, the team added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Wilson was just announced as the Week 1 starter, though he has a limited set of proven receiving options beyond WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth. The team is comfortable at running back with the tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and ranked fifth in rush play rate (46.7%) last season.
The defense continues to be Pittsburgh’s identity, ranking eighth in points allowed last season. Unlike the offense, there weren’t many changes to the defense in the offseason, with a strong pass rush led by OLBs T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and DT Cameron Heyward, as well as a solid secondary with S Minkah Fitzpatrick. The team is looking to strengthen their run defense with former Ravens ILB Patrick Queen, and they have new veteran starters in the secondary, with CB Donte Jackson and S DeShon Elliott.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons frustrated fans and fantasy managers alike by failing to fully utilize former first-round picks RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts when Arthur Smith was calling plays in recent years. They hope a proven quarterback in Kirk Cousins and former Rams assistant-turned-offensive-coordinator Zac Robinson will be the answer for an offense that ranked 26th in points and 29th in pass rate last season.
Atlanta’s defense was in the middle of the pack last season but still made major changes with the firing of coordinator Ryan Nielsen and the loss of leading sackers Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree. The team was relatively quiet on the open market after spending on Cousins but did use five draft choices on defense and have key players like DT Grady Jarrett, LB Kaden Elliss, CB A.J. Terrell, and S Jessie Bates returning.
Key Injuries/Absences
Pittsburgh: RB Jaylen Warren could miss Week 1 with a hamstring injury.
Atlanta: WR Rondale Moore won’t play this season due to a knee injury. LB Bralen Trice is out for the year with a torn ACL. LB Kaden Elliss missed some practice time due to a groin injury.
Betting Blurbs
- Don’t Count Tomlin Out: Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 57-35-2 (62.0%) as underdogs since he became head coach in 2007.
- Tomlin Travels: Pittsburgh also has the third-best road record straight up in the league since Tomlin’s hire, at 181-110-2 (63.1%).
Season Outlook
In spite of poor offensive performance, the Steelers have made the playoffs in three of the last four seasons and have a 34% chance of returning, according to our projections. They are ranked No. 17 to open the year. Atlanta is favored to take the NFC South (47%) and have a 61% chance to make the playoffs despite ranking 19th in our predictive ratings.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Atlanta (60.6% win odds)
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Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
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9. Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Minnesota -1.0
News & Notes
It’s rare that a team allows a proven starting quarterback to hit the free-agent market, yet the Vikings did just that with Kirk Cousins. They’ve replaced him with QBs Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy, plus some significant defensive personnel changes.
The Giants are in a much different situation, facing a pivotal season for QB Daniel Jones and potentially the entire coaching staff under Brian Daboll. They made noise in the offseason to address many needs after a nightmarish 6-11 season.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings drafted QB J.J. McCarthy in the first round, but he underwent knee surgery in August and is out for the year. That means veteran QB Sam Darnold will try to revitalize his career in a situation that has been pretty good offensively under head coach Kevin O’Connell. That starts with superstar WR Justin Jefferson, who has easily surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first four seasons. WR Jordan Addison had a strong rookie season, and the Vikings signed former Packers star RB Aaron Jones to balance the offense. Reliable TE T.J. Hockenson will likely miss the start of the season after tearing his ACL but will look to return to his previous form later in the year.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores helped fix a futile defense last year, ascending to 12th in points and 16th in yards last season after clearing out many veterans. The changes continued in the offseason, most notably replacing Danielle Hunter with DE Jonathan Greenard and also adding LBs Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman along with CB Shaq Griffin. The team also added another interesting pass rush option in first-round pick Dallas Turner.
New York Giants
Can the Giants win consistently with Daniel Jones? He’s had a staggering 40 interceptions and 11 lost fumbles in 60 career regular season games and has only 62 career touchdown passes. The team paid him last offseason, so the pressure is on for a rebound season after tearing his ACL last year. New York moved on from superstar RB Saquon Barkley (who signed with rival Philadelphia), and the Giants signed former Bill and Texan RB Devin Singletary in his stead. The team also used their first-round pick on WR Malik Nabers and will have multiple new starting offensive linemen.
New York wasn’t shy about fixing a pass rush with the third-worst sack rate last season, signing DE Brian Burns and DT Jordan Phillips to join NT Dexter Lawrence, OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux, and OLB Azeez Ojuari. The team hopes new coordinator Shane Bowen and an extremely young secondary can hit the ground running after a disappointing season.
Key Injuries/Absences
Minnesota: QB J.J. McCarthy will miss his rookie season with a torn meniscus. TE T.J. Hockenson was placed on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL.
NY Giants: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. is questionable for the start of the year due to an ankle injury.
Betting Blurbs
- Kevin Travels: Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell is 8-4-4 ATS on the road since he was hired by the Vikings in 2022.
- Giants Under: Taking New York Unders has been profitable in consecutive seasons under HC Brian Daboll, and their over record is 14-21-1 (40%) during that time.
Season Outlook
The expectations aren’t very high for either team entering the season, as both rank in the bottom 10 of the predictive ratings. The Vikings (No. 23) have a 20% chance to make the playoffs, while the Giants (No. 29) have only a 14% chance.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Minnesota (55.3% win odds)
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10. Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Houston -2.5
News & Notes
No franchise comes into 2024 with more steam than the Texans, coming off a surprising 10-7 season and AFC South title after the arrivals of QB C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Colts entered last season in a similar position, with rookie QB Anthony Richardson and new head coach Shane Steichen, but their hopes were sidelined when Richardson was lost to injury early in the year.
Houston Texans
Stroud made the Pro Bowl and won Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, and there’s reason to believe he can build on that success. After building a rapport with young WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell last year, the team has added proven veterans Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik garnered head coaching consideration for his work last year but will also be around for at least one more season.
The defense was nearly as improved as the offense last year, and they have continued to make waves by replacing Jonathan Greenard with DE Danielle Hunter, installing a new interior up front with DTs Mario Edwards and Folorunso Fatukasi, and adding two defensive backs in the first three rounds of the draft. The team has certainly taken advantage of their extra cap space due to Stroud’s rookie contract.
Indianapolis Colts
We only saw Richardson under center for four games last season, and he was able to finish just two of those games. Limiting the hits on the mobile young quarterback will be important for the Colts, though the team added QB Joe Flacco as insurance. The weapons remain strong with RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., and a solid offensive line.
The defense needs to play better than it did last season, ranking 28th in points allowed and already faces a challenge after losing DE Samson Ebukam to an Achilles injury. The pressure will be on first-round pick DE Laiatu Latu to make an immediate impact, helping stars DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye. The starters are mostly the same on the backend, and the expectations are high for second-year CB JuJu Brents after missing much of last season to injury.
Key Injuries/Absences
Houston: CB C.J. Henderson will miss the start of the season due to a foot injury. LB Christian Harris could miss Week 1 due to a calf injury.
Indianapolis: TE Jelani Woods will miss significant time to turf toe. WR Josh Downs is questionable for the start of the season due to a high ankle sprain. DE Samson Ebukam will likely miss 2024 after tearing his Achilles. RB Trey Sermon has been fighting a hamstring injury.
Betting Blurbs
- Breaking the Streak: Houston’s 10-9 ATS record last season was their first winning ATS record since 2015.
- Colts Week 1 Futility: Indianapolis has struggled in Week 1 since 1985, 13-25-1 SU and 13-24-2 ATS.
Season Outlook
Houston is favored to repeat as AFC South champs, and we give them a 43% chance to claim the division. The Colts have the third-best shot at 22%. The Texans are No. 9 in our predictive ratings, and the Colts trail them at No. 20.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Houston (55.0% win odds)
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11. Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: Seattle -5.5
News & Notes
Both the Broncos and Seahawks have new beginnings in 2024, as the Broncos turn to rookie QB Bo Nix after moving on from Russell Wilson. The Seahawks moved on from long-time head coach Pete Carroll and hired former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald. The two teams also have similar goals of bounceback seasons after missing the playoffs last year.
Denver Broncos
Head coach Sean Payton was unable to fix Russell Wilson last year, so he found a new pupil in the draft. Nix was well-regarded for his accuracy and quick release after revitalizing his college career at Oregon. If he can hold off Jarrett Stidham for the starting job, Nix has a lot of interesting weapons to work with, including WRs Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims, and Josh Reynolds, plus a likely running back committee that includes Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Payton made his reputation as an offensive guru in New Orleans, though it remains to be seen how much progress the team can make from their 20th rank in scoring now with a rookie quarterback at the helm.
The Bronco’s defense was in quite a rut to start last season under DC Vance Joseph, including a 70-point shellacking in Week 3 at Miami. The defense improved later in the year but made big personnel changes, including the additions of DE John Franklin-Myers, LB Cody Barton, CB Levi Wallace, and S Brandon Jones. Pass rush is key in a division that includes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, so the pressure will be on DE Zach Allen and Franklin-Myers again to make their presences felt. Denver’s defense ranked 27th in points and 30th in yards per play last season, so it won’t take much to show improvement.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s offensive personnel didn’t see many changes in the offseason for a unit that finished 17th in points last year. The team certainly isn’t absent of talent with one of the most impressive wide receiver rooms in the league (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jake Bobo) and a two-headed monster at running back in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. QB Geno Smith has brought stability over the last two years after the Seahawks moved on from Russell Wilson. More significant is the hiring of coordinator Ryan Grubb, a long-time college coach who was most recently at Washington.
The Seahawk’s defensive rebuild didn’t progress as quickly as hoped in recent seasons, which was one factor that cost Carroll his job. Macdonald oversaw the elite Ravens defense and will look to supercharge the Seahawks after the team allowed the third most yards last season. There’s a wealth of depth up front, as the Seahawks added free agent Johnathan Hankins and first-round DE Byron Murphy II to a unit that includes proven players in Jarran Reed, Leonard Williams, and Dre’Mont Jones. The biggest changes are at linebacker, where the team moved on from Bobby Wagner for the second time and added Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson. The secondary is loaded with young talent, led by “Riq” Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, while the Seahawks hope new safety Rayshawn Jenkins gives the team more reliability and consistency than Jamal Adams did in recent years.
Key Injuries/Absences
Denver: LB Drew Sanders will miss the season due to a torn Achilles.
Seattle: LB Uchenna Nwosu will miss the first month due to a sprained knee.
Betting Blurbs
- Broncos Not Traveling Well: Denver has a losing ATS record on the road in three consecutive seasons, including 2-5-1 last season.
- Not Their Favorite Thing: Seattle hasn’t fared well as the favorite in recent seasons, with a losing ATS record in five consecutive years.
Season Outlook
Denver opens the season ranked No. 30 in our predictive ratings, in the cellar of the AFC West, with only a 9% chance to make the playoffs. Seattle is No. 21 and also faces an uphill climb in their division, projected to finish third with a 34% chance to make the playoffs.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Seattle (68.9% win odds)
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12. Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point Spread: LA Chargers -3.5
News & Notes
The AFC West gets an early rivalry game between two teams looking to take a step forward in 2024 when the Raiders take on the Chargers. Raiders head honcho Antonio Pierce shed the interim title after going 5-4 last season, while Jim Harbaugh is beginning his second NFL head coaching tenure with LA after leading Michigan to a National Championship last year.
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders training camp has featured a quarterback battle between former Jaguar/Eagle/Colt Gardner Minshew and incumbent Aidan O’Connell, with Minshew being named the starter late in the preseason. It might not sound like the most exciting situation, but the team has a wealth of weapons after adding first-round TE Brock Bowers to WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. The running back pairing of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison look to fill the shoes of the departed Josh Jacobs in a Las Vegas offense that ranked 23rd in points last season.
The Vegas defense stood on its head last season, ranking seventh in points allowed. They get another boost with former Dolphin DT Christian Wilkins joining DEs Maxx Crosby and Tyree Wilson up front. The remainder of the defense added depth in the draft but otherwise returned most of its key players.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have consistently underachieved in recent years, so it was time for a change on most fronts. Harbaugh brings a new philosophy and a change in personnel further fueled by the team’s cap difficulties. QB Justin Herbert is still under the center, but the weapons around him are very different. Gone are Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler. They’re replaced by a collection of names, including RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, WRs Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark, and TEs Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst. Harbaugh has also reunited with his 49ers OC Greg Roman, adding substance to the proclamation that his team will lean on the run.
LA’s poor defense in recent seasons was frustrating, considering the elite talent and defensive background of former head coach Brandon Staley. Harbaugh brought with him Michigan DC Jesse Minter, and the team still has most of its talented defensive core, including EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, CB Asante Samuel Jr., and S Derwin James. The Chargers have added OLB Bud Dupree to beef up the pass rush, CB Kristian Fulton on the backend, and multiple late-round draft picks to create more depth.
Key Injuries/Absences
Las Vegas: TE Brock Bowers missed time in training camp due to a foot injury but should be ready for Week 1.
LA Chargers: QB Justin Herbert battled a foot injury in training camp but should be fully recovered to start the year.
Betting Blurbs
- It’s Good to be Home: The home team has won six consecutive matchups between the Raiders and Chargers.
- Harbaugh Dominates: Jim Harbaugh had tremendous success in his earlier NFL stint with the 49ers, going 49-22-1 SU and 41-29-2 ATS.
Season Outlook
We project the Chargers and Raiders to finish second and third in the AFC West. The Chargers open the season ranked No. 18 with a 47% chance to make the playoffs, while the Raiders are No. 27 with only a 16% shot to make the playoffs.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: LA Chargers (64.4% win odds)
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13. Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -3.5
News & Notes
The torture that is Washington Commanders fandom continued last season despite the change in ownership, as the team went 4-13 and earned the second overall pick in the draft. That futility did allow the team to take Heisman Trophy winner QB Jayden Daniels and steal DC Dan Quinn away from the rival Cowboys to right the ship.
Tampa Bay is more status quo after their third consecutive NFC South title, as QB Baker Mayfield established himself as a viable replacement for Tom Brady. He will be out to prove he can keep up the momentum now that OC Dave Canales is gone to Carolina.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has a tall task ahead of him but lots of help in Washington. The team will lean heavily on Terry McLaurin, who has a largely unproven receiving corps, including WR Luke McCaffrey, especially after trading away Jahan Dotson to the Eagles this August. The strength may be at running back, where veteran Austin Ekeler joins Brian Robinson. Concerns remain on the offensive line with multiple new starters and a new offense entirely under OC Kliff Kingsbury, but Daniels has the talent to make things exciting.
Washington’s defense was last in points and yards last season, deteriorating throughout the season and allowing 28 or more points in each of the last eight games. While much of the focus was on the offensive changes during the offseason, the team’s defensive changes have arguably been more drastic. The new starters include DEs Clelin Ferrell and Dorance Armstrong, LBs Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, CBs Michael Davis and Mike Sainristil, and S Jeremy Chinn. Quinn has been able to orchestrate quick defensive turnarounds at other stops, but even this could take a miracle, with DTs Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen being the only holdovers with major name recognition.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield revived his career in Tampa Bay after going 2-8 as a starter with two teams in 2022. He led the Bucs to a surprise winning record, made the Pro Bowl, and posted a strong 54.3 QBR. Fortunately, the team was able to retain their primary weapons, including WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and RB Richard White. However, there are concerns about the departure of offensive coordinator Dave Canales and changes to the offensive line’s interior.
The Bucs defense had a very tough time against the pass last year, which might have accelerated their decision to move on from CB Carlton Davis and sign S Jordan Whitehead. The team still has talented holdovers CB Jamel Dean and S Antoine Winfield Jr., and brought in rookie third-round pick CB Tykee Smith. Tampa Bay will also be leaning on more youth up front with Shaq Barrett and Devin White out of the picture and could use more production from edge rushers Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Logan Hall. The run defense remained elite last season, with NT Vita Vea plugging the interior.
Key Injuries/Absences
Washington: DT Jer’Zhan Newton battled foot and soft-tissue injuries in training camp.
Tampa Bay: RB Chase Edmonds will miss the season due to a knee injury. LB Yaya Diaby didn’t appear in the preseason due to an ankle but could be ready for Week 1.
Betting Blurbs
- Tampa Bay Turnaround: After a league-worst 4-13-1 ATS in 2022, the Bucs were 12-7 ATS in 2023.
- Bucs Not Scoring: Tampa Bay has the second-worst over record since the start of 2022 at 13-24 (35.1%).
Season Outlook
Washington remains near the cellar in our rankings at No. 28, with only a 20% chance of making the playoffs. The Buccaneers are in the thick of another wide-open NFC South race, projected to finish in second with a 25% chance of winning the division and a 38% chance to make the playoffs as our No. 22 ranked team.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Tampa Bay (60.9% win odds)
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14. Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point Spread: Cleveland -2.5
News & Notes
The Cowboys are almost always at the center of NFL media attention, which continued this offseason. After another disappointing playoff showing, the team was forced to make some tough cap decisions and remain in a contract dance with franchise players QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb.
Cleveland has their own reason for anxiety. QB Deshaun Watson has shown no semblance of his early-career form after signing a guaranteed five-year deal two seasons ago, while RB Nick Chubb is returning from a major knee injury and will not be available early in the year. Still, the high expectations are present for both teams.
Dallas Cowboys
An early playoff exit soiled what was otherwise an outstanding season from Prescott in 2023. He made his third Pro Bowl and was second in MVP voting, leading the league with 36 touchdown passes. His production helped Dallas lead the league with 30.1 points per game, and the assumption is that he will have Lamb and WR Brandin Cooks in the fold again this year. There will be changes along the offensive line and at running back, however. The Cowboys will have at least two new starting linemen, and veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott was brought back in as part of a committee replacing Tony Pollard, along with Rico Dowdle.
The defense also had its share of losses, led by DC Dan Quinn. He will be replaced by the very experienced Mike Zimmer, who most recently spent eight seasons as the Vikings head coach. The major playmakers of the defense are intact with DEs Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, plus CBs DaRon Bland (albeit injured to start the year) and Trevon Diggs. The team has some changes at linebacker, but it could be a net positive with former Viking LB Eric Kendricks rejoining Zimmer.
Cleveland Browns
How far can the Browns fly with Deshaun Watson? He went 5-1 as the starter last season, but the numbers weren’t as good as the record would indicate, with four picks, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, and a 42.9 QBR. The expectations that he’d jumpstart the offense since being acquired in 2022 haven’t come to fruition. The team’s weapons don’t look like an issue, with WR Jerry Jeudy being added to WR Amari Cooper and TE David Njoku. The Browns should also get Chubb back from injury at some point, though RB Jerome Ford held down the fort for most of last season with over 200 carries.
The Browns defense impressed last season under DC Jim Schwartz, leading the NFL in total yards allowed per game, though they struggled in the Red Zone. The pass defense was suffocating with DEs Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, and the backend remains strong with Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Grant Delpit, and Juan Thornhill. Veteran LB Jordan Hicks is likely the only major change from last season.
Key Injuries/Absences
Dallas: CB DaRon Bland will miss significant time due to a foot injury.
Cleveland: RB Nick Chubb will miss at least the first four games after knee surgery last year. RB Nyheim Hines will miss at least the first four weeks as he recovers from ACL surgery. CB Greg Newsome could miss time due to a hamstring. CB Denzel Ward suffered a concussion in the preseason.
Betting Blurbs
- McCarthy Redeems Himself: After a league-worst 5-11 ATS record in 2020 during HC Mike McCarthy’s first season with Dallas, he’s had three straight positive ATS seasons and is 34-21 (61.8%).
- Stefanski Scores: Cleveland hasn’t grown a reputation for a high-powered offense, but the OVER is 37-32-1 (53.6%) in Brown’s games since HC Kevin Stefanski was hired in 2020.
Season Outlook
Our projections have the Cowboys favored to defend their NFC East title with a 41% chance of claiming the division and a 66% chance of making the playoffs, second best in the NFC. Cleveland has a 41% chance to make the playoffs in the crowded AFC and rank No. 13 in our predictive ratings, compared to the Cowboys at No. 10.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Cleveland (53.3% win odds)
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15. Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Game Time: Sunday, September 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point Spread: Detroit -3.5
News & Notes
HC Sean McVay proved the doubters wrong last season, rebounding from a 5-12 season to earn a Wild Card berth with a very young group of key contributors. The challenge gets even tougher this year following DT Aaron Donald’s retirement and the departure of DC Raheem Morris.
The Lions also made believers out of cynics with their first playoff win since 1991 and their first division title since 1993. The expectations will now be much higher as Detroit tries to make more noise in their quest for their first-ever Super Bowl appearance.
Los Angeles Rams
McVay and QB Matthew Stafford have been a perfect pairing since the quarterback was acquired from the Lions in 2021. Stafford was a Comeback Player of the Year candidate after returning from an injury-plagued 2022 season, showing great efficiency with nearly 4,000 yards passing in 15 regular season games. He helped fuel the breakouts of WR Puka Nacua and RB Kyren Williams while WR Cooper Kupp battled injury. It’s now Nacua who’s battling injury this preseason, and TE Tyler Higbee is also returning from a torn ACL.
The defense is a much bigger concern, with the aforementioned losses of Hall of Fame Donald and Morris’ departure to be head coach in Atlanta. Rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske could play big roles in the pass rush, trying to equal the impact that DT Kobie Turner made last season as a rookie. The team has also completely reworked their secondary with veterans Tre’Davious White, Darious Williams, and Kamren Curl likely to see significant snaps. The defense will have no time to get comfortable with the changes against the high-powered Lions offense in Week 1.
Detroit Lions
Detroit’s offense got big rookie contributions from RB Jahmyr Gibbs and TE Sam LaPorta as they continued their elite play, ranking fifth in points and second in yards. QB Jared Goff has proven his worth since he was traded from the Rams three years ago, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has developed into a star over that same timeframe. The team lost WR Josh Reynolds and hopes that former first-round pick Jameson Williams can reach his potential.
The defense continues to lag behind the offense, so seeing them make big personnel additions wasn’t a surprise. They were aggressive, adding veterans DE Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader on the front end, while the secondary now has CBs Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, plus early draftees CB Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. That adds to young building blocks DE Aidan Hutchinson, LB Jack Campbell, and S Brian Branch.
Key Injuries/Absences
LA Rams: TE Tyler Higbee will miss at least the first four games after ACL surgery last year. WR Puka Nacua missed some training camp due to a knee injury but appears ready to play in week 1.
Detroit: RB Jahmyr Gibbs battled a hamstring injury in training camp but should be ready for Week 1. K Michael Badgley will miss the season after tearing his hamstring. CB Emmanuel Mosley will start the year on the IR.
Betting Blurbs
- Bet on Detroit: The Lions have been terrific for bettors since HC Dan Campbell took the job in 2021, at a league-best 37-17 (68.5%) ATS.
- McVay Wins: The Ram’s success under HC Sean McVay has been impressive at 77-49 SU and 65-55-6 (54.2%) ATS since he was hired in 2017.
Season Outlook
The Rams open the season ranked No. 14 with a 45% chance of making the playoffs. Detroit is No. 4 with a 71% chance of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, second best in the NFC.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: Detroit (64.2% win odds)
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16. New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Game Time: Monday, September 9 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
Point Spread: San Francisco -4.0
News & Notes
QB Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on Monday Night Football in Week 1 last year, but he gets another chance to make good in the opening MNF game at age 40. Like last season, the expectations are sky high for the Jets with Rodgers under center, with the team missing the playoffs in 13 consecutive years.
The 49ers open the year as the favorites in the NFC, even with the Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams training camp sagas hanging over their heads in August. San Francisco fell short in the Super Bowl vs. the Chiefs for the second time in five years but has the talent to be back in the conversation again this year, led by QB Brock Purdy.
New York Jets
The Jets rolled out the red carpet for Rodgers last year, only for the quarterback to get injured in Week 1. They still have ample weapons to help the future Hall of Famer, with WR Mike Williams and a revamped offensive line added to RB Breece Hall, WR Garrett Wilson, and TE Tyler Conklin. Incredibly, the team’s offense has ranked in the bottom five in points in five consecutive seasons, so any progress would be welcomed by Jets faithful this year.
New York’s defense doesn’t share those issues, ascending to become one of the best in the league under HC Robert Saleh. They were second in yards last season and have beefed up an already potent pass rush this season with DE Haason Reddick and DT Javon Kinlaw joining DT Quinnen Williams. The starters in the secondary remain the same, led by CB Sauce Gardner, and the linebacking corps is formidable with C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams.
San Francisco 49ers
An offense that ranked second in points and first in yards last season could lose some of its juice with the departure of Aiyuk, though the 49ers made preparations by drafting WR Ricky Pearsall in the first round. He joins a talented group of WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey, with Purdy sporting an incredible 17-4 regular season record since becoming the starter late in 2022. Star LT Trent Williams has held out early in training camp, which is worth watching given the clear difference he’s made in the offense when on the field. HC Kyle Shanahan has been able to move the ball no matter his personnel, but he’s never had a more efficient quarterback in San Francisco than Purdy.
The 49ers moved on from DC Steve Wilks in spite of ranking fourth in points and ninth in yards last season, as the defense struggled in key moments. The team added veteran DE Leonard Floyd, DT Maliek Collins, and LB De’Vonte Campbell to a unit already loaded with talent. DE Nick Bosa and DT Javon Hargrave continue to wreak havoc in the pass rush, while LB Fred Warner is well-established as one of the top linebackers in the league. The statuses of key performers LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga are murky early in the year as they recover from injuries, but the team should see them back on the field soon.
Key Injuries/Absences
NY Jets: WR Mike Williams was recovering from a knee injury in training camp. DT Leki Fotu missed much of training camp due to a hamstring injury. DE Haason Reddick requested a trade, and his status with the team is unclear.
San Francisco: RB Christian McCaffrey nursed a calf issue in training camp but should be fine for Week 1. S Talanoa Hufanga could miss the start of the season due to a knee injury. LT Trent Williams’ status is unclear as he is holding out for a new contract. WR Brandon Aiyuk is also hoping for a new deal and hasn’t been practicing this August. Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall has been dealing with a shoulder injury similar to his injuries from college. OG Joe Feliciano is out indefinitely due to a knee injury. DL Drake Jackson will miss the season due to a knee injury. CB Ambry Thomas will miss time due to a broken arm. LB Dre Greenlaw is on the PUP list after tearing his Achilles in the Super Bowl.
Betting Blurbs
- Minimal Coverage: While Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are 52-26 SU as favorites (since 2017), they are only 37-40-1 (48.1%) ATS in that role.
- Jets Fail to Takeoff: The Jets have six consecutive losing ATS seasons. During that time, they have the worst ATS record in the NFL at 38-59-2 (39.2%).
Season Outlook
The odds are better than not that the Jets return to the playoffs (54%), and they open the year ranked No. 12. San Francisco is our top-ranked NFC team and No. 2 overall. Their 12% shot to win the Super Bowl leads all teams, thanks in part to a relatively weaker NFC field compared to the projected competitive AFC.
Computer Picks & More Analysis
Model Pick: San Francisco (65.0% win odds)
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