Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 4 (2021)

These NFL Week 4 upset picks stand out as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on models and/or data angles.

September 29, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 4 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

Seattle Seahawks (at San Francisco 49ers)

Point Spread: +2.5

Moneyline: +130

This is pretty rare air for Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson.

The Seahawks have lost two games in a row only eight other times in his career. They are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 against the spread in this spot.

Yes, that means that Seattle has yet to lose three games in a row with Wilson at QB.

That isn’t to say that the Seahawks can’t lose three in a row. They’ve already dropped two straight, and they’re an underdog this week. With that said, they’re 8-9 SU and 11-5-1 ATS since the start of the 2018 season as an underdog.

Seattle also has a surprisingly strong offense for an underdog. The Seahawks lead the league with an average of 7.4 yards per play this season. Wilson is also playing at an MVP level again, even though the team’s record doesn’t reflect that.

Seattle’s problem so far has been its defense, which hasn’t been able to get off the field. The Seahawks have allowed their opponents to go 15-of-28 on third down over the last two weeks. Some regression to the mean there in Week 4 would help their chances against San Francisco.

Our Similar Games model, which is off to a strong start with its against-the-spread predictions in 2021, gives Seattle 60% ATS cover odds at this line. That’s about as good as you can hope for in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Green Bay Packers)

Point Spread: +6.5

Moneyline: +251

We successfully picked against the Steelers last week, but now we’re going to side with them as a value in the underdog role. This happens to be the top moneyline value play of Week 4, according to our models.

“Big Ben is washed” will likely be a major talking point throughout the week. QB Ben Roethlisberger went 38-of-58 for 318 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Pittsburgh’s 24-10 loss to Cincinnati on Sunday.

However, it’s not like the Steelers have relied on great offense to carry them recently. They won 12 games last year even though Roethlisberger averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt.

The key for Pittsburgh in this matchup is the other side of the ball. Star LB T.J. Watt missed Sunday’s loss and more than half of the Week 2 loss against the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite that, he still has more sacks than the rest of the roster combined.

Watt practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll suit up this weekend. But if he is cleared to go, Pittsburgh’s defense is better than its overall numbers would suggest.

Meanwhile, after Aaron Rodgers’ heroics in a primetime game against San Francisco, the public is now back on the Packers despite their Week 1 debacle against the Saints. However, Green Bay has been outscored on the year by 15 points and is 26th in the NFL in total yards.

Consider taking the points against a favorite with that profile.

New York Jets (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Point Spread: +7.0

Moneyline: +273

Finally, we have the New York Jets, who are coming off a shutout loss to the Denver Broncos last week. The public is heavily on the Titans, with 87% of all spread picks coming in on Tennessee in pick’em pools this week.

That level of consensus is a yellow flag, as teams with 75%+ public support are 1-4 ATS so far this year.

Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson has struggled so far, throwing two touchdowns versus seven interceptions. However, he’s faced the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos, all of whom rank in the top three leaguewide in passing yards allowed and net passing yards per attempt allowed.

Wilson has contributed to that, but other quarterbacks are averaging only a 56.5 percent completion rate and 5.9 yards per attempt against those three defenses.

There’s a saying in baseball that “momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.” In this case, it’s the next defense up, and the Titans are much worse in that regard than what the Jets have faced so far.

Since 2010, there have been 54 regular-season shutouts (excluding Week 17). The team that was shut out went 23-31 SU and 31-20-3 (60.2%) ATS the next week. There’s probably no better definition of “buying low” when it comes to public opinion.

The Titans’ strength is their offense, and they could also benefit from a reversal of some bad luck so far. However, they might be without starting WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, both of whom are nursing hamstring injuries.

The Titans are still better than the Jets, but not having Brown and/or Jones might increase the possibility of an upset here.

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 4 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 4 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap