Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 10

Our favorite Week 10 player props include both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady to exceed their projected passing yards.

Week 14 NFL Picks

Can Patrick Mahomes get back on track? (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Here are our player prop picks for Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

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Last Week/Overall Summary

We went 5-4 overall last week. For the season, our prop picks are 41-34.

Our top combo of Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert both went under and lost, as the Philadelphia Eagles again had low passing volume. Aside from that, the passing-yards and receiving props mostly hit, while we missed on A.J. Brown scoring on Sunday night as a longer-shot play.

Lamar Jackson went over and Kirk Cousins under in the same game for two wins, while the combo of Teddy Bridgewater and Courtland Sutton also went under their props as the Denver Broncos jumped out to a huge lead in their win over the Dallas Cowboys.

Week 10 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we’re targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings.

PLAYERTEAMCATEGORYO/ULINEODDSBETSPORTSBOOK
Patrick MahomesKCPassing YardsOver284.5-11022BetMGM
Travis KelceKCReceptionsOver6.5-10521DraftKings
Jared GoffLARPassing YardsUnder240.5-11523BetMGM
Tom BradyTBPassing YardsOver298.5-11523DraftKings
Mike EvansTBReceiving YardsOver76.5-11523DraftKings
Mike EvansTBTouchdownOver0.5-11022DraftKings
Russell GageATLReceiving YardsUnder51.5-11022BetMGM
Trevor LawrenceJACPassing YardsUnder236.5-11523BetMGM

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 275 yards or lower in three straight weeks. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce caught only nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks.

Mahomes has missed several opportunities to get the ball to Kelce, and Kelce has also botched some chances. We’ll play on the rebound and bet that Kelce will be a big part of the game plan early against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Some other quick notes:

  • Jared Goff: This is the lowest point-total game of the week, and Goff’s passing yards are above what you would expect for a team with a 17.25-point projection.
  • Tom Brady and Mike Evans: When we last saw Evans, he was being limited against the Saints. The Bucs now get a Washington team that has allowed a league-high 286.8 passing yards per game. With fellow WR Chris Godwin a game-time decision, expect Evans to be featured heavily.
  • Russell Gage: Atlanta’s projected passing numbers are a little higher than our models, and leading receivers have struggled against Dallas.
  • Trevor Lawrence: The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Buffalo Bills last week despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. However, our models have this passing number too high for a team expected to score only 18.5 points. The Jaguars have also been more run-heavy recently than an average team.
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