Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 3

We are on some receiving yards over prop bets in Week 3 and also look for some running back value in Jacksonville.

September 26, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

We are back with our player prop picks for Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We had a slightly above-average Week 2, going 6-5. But our win rate was relatively higher on our larger plays, so we won $18.60 on the $200 wagered. Add in the +$82 from Week 1, and our picks are +$100.60 with an overall record of 13-8 (61.9%) so far.

As for the picks, we went 3-2 on quarterback passing-yards props, improving to 5-2 in that category on the year. We hit the under on Trevor Lawrence in a big way, hit the over on Justin Herbert, and barely survived with the under on Goff.

We lost on the Matt Ryan under. Moving forward, we should probably account more for teams passing heavily against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because they have such a great run defense.

The Mac Jones over also missed thanks to the game script. Jones barely threw in the second half despite being well over halfway to the over by halftime.

Meanwhile, we were on target with our assessment of New York Jets WR Corey Davis. We recommended taking his unders for both yards and receptions, as we assumed New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick would focus his defensive attention on Davis.

Jets QB Zach Wilson threw two interceptions on his first two passes, both of which were targeted for Davis. The fifth-year wideout finished with only two catches for eight yards.

Week 3 Player Props

This week, it’s all about yardage, and we are on several overs.

Picks for Week 3 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we are targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings this week.

Player	Team	Sportsbook	Category	O/U	Line	Odds	Bet
Derek Carr	LV	BetMGM	Passing Yards	UNDER	278.5	-120	24
Aaron Rodgers	GB	BetMGM	Passing Yards	UNDER	280.5	-115	23
Josh Allen	BUF	BetMGM	Passing Yards	OVER	267.5	-110	22
Cole Beasley	BUF	BetMGM	Receiving Yards	OVER	46.5	-115	23
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	OVER	61.5	-120	24
Ty'Son Williams	BAL	BetMGM	Receiving Yards	OVER	12.5	-110	24
Robert Woods	LAR	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	OVER	65.5	-115	22
James Robinson	JAC	DraftKings	Rush Attempts	OVER	11.5	-130	26
James Robinson	JAC	DraftKings	Rush+Rec Yards	OVER	74.5	-115	12

Let’s quickly cover the rationale behind some of these picks.

Derek Carr Under Passing Yards

Carr has thrown for a league-high 817 passing yards so far this year, so we’re going a bit contrarian here.

Carr took advantage of the Steelers in the second half last week with LB T.J. Watt out, along with CB Joe Haden. But this Miami team has been playing well on defense and limited Bills QB Josh Allen a week ago.

With backup QB Jacoby Brissett under center, Miami will likely have a conservative game plan aimed at controlling the ball. The Raiders may struggle to air it out as much as they have in the first two weeks.

The over/under for this game is only 44.0. That’s the lowest total in a Raiders game since 2019.

In the 11 most similar games by over/under with Carr at QB and Gruden as head coach, Carr averaged 242 passing yards. He would have gone under this passing-yard total seven of 11 times.

Josh Allen Over Passing Yards and Cole Beasley Over Receiving Yards

At the other extreme, Josh Allen has gone under in both games this year on passing yards. We’ll take the over in Week 3 now that the total is under 270.

In last week’s blowout win over Miami, the Bills were up big in the second half and didn’t need to pass. Allen figures to throw it more in this matchup, and he should take plenty of shots at Cole Beasley.

Route-runners like Keenan Allen and Sterling Shepard have thrived so far against Washington. We expect Beasley to be a bigger part of a higher-volume passing day.

Aaron Rodgers Under Passing Yards

Rodgers has thrown only 28 and 27 passes in his first two games, respectively. The San Francisco defense is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth-worst in the NFL) while limiting opponents to 5.7 net yards per pass (ninth-best).

Green Bay will likely aim to run the ball and stay balanced to beat San Francisco. Rodgers’ volume could again be limited as a result.

JuJu Smith-Schuster Over Receiving Yards

This one’s pretty simple. The Steelers ruled out Diontae Johnson on Friday because of a knee injury..

James Washington will now see more time in three-receiver sets as a result, but Smith-Schuster should soak up some of Johnson’s targets as well.

Ty’Son Williams Over Receiving Yards

According to Football Outsiders, Detroit ranks last in defensive pass efficiency against running backs. The Lions haven’t faced a high volume of running back passes yet, though.

Detroit has largely played teams that were ahead in the second half and didn’t throw it to the backs late. Williams has such a low receiving-yard total that he just needs one or two big catches to hit on this prop.

Robert Woods Over Receiving Yards

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run defense has been one of the NFL’s best over the last two years. Expect the LA Rams to focus on passing the ball against them, especially with RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (ribs) looking like a game-time decision.

WR Cooper Kupp has been QB Matthew Stafford’s preferred target so far this year. He has 16 catches for 271 yards, while Woods is at eight catches and 91 receiving yards.

But it’s easy to overreact to small sample sizes or narratives. We expect Woods to bounce back here, and you’re getting him at a big discount (Kupp’s total is over 20 yards higher).

James Robinson Over Rush Attempts and Yards from Scrimmage

Finally, we’ll close with some James Robinson props.  Our betting models like the Jaguars +7.5 this week against Arizona.

The Jaguars have underperformed in both games and lost by double digits, trailing throughout the second half in both. As a result, they ran the ball only 16 times in each game.

Not much has gone right for the Jaguars so far. They have the worst turnover differential in the league and a very suspect pass defense.

We’re going with a market-correction game here, seeing some value at this low rushing-attempt number if the Jaguars can keep it competitive. Robinson should be a central part in making that happen.