Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 4

We are down on Derrick Henry in Week 4 player props and up on some low passing totals, including Jameis Winston.

October 2, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The player prop picks for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season are here.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We finished at 5-4 with the prop picks last week but were down $4 for the week after the juice. With that result, our picks are +$96.60 on the year with an overall record of 18-12 (60.0 percent).

We continued the winning ways with quarterback passing-yardage props, going 2-1 to improve to 7-3 on the year. The over call on Josh Allen (and WR Cole Beasley) almost hit by halftime and was already covered early in the third quarter. The under on Aaron Rodgers survived his late field-goal drive, while we missed on the Derek Carr under.

We also nailed both James Robinson props, buying low on the Jacksonville running back, who tallied 134 total yards and 15 rushing attempts.

The Juju Smith-Schuster prop was an unlucky injury loss, as he left the game before Ben Roethlisberger started airing it out.

Robert Woods also continued to disappoint. He managed only 33 yards on a day when Matthew Stafford threw for 343 yards.

Week 4 Player Props

This week, it’s all about yardage, and we are on several overs.

Picks for Week 4 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we are targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings this week.

Player	Team	Sportsbook	Category	O/U	Line	Odds	Bet
Dak Prescott	DAL	BetMGM	Passing Yards	Over	290.5	-110	22
Jameis Winston	NO	BetMGM	Passing Yards	Over	202.5	-110	22
Jameis Winston	NO	BetMGM	Passing TDs	Over	1.5	+105	20
Jared Goff	DET	BetMGM	Passing Yards	Under	245.5	-115	23
Derrick Henry	TEN	DraftKings	Rush Attempts	Under	25.5	-105	21
Cole Kmet	CHI	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	Over	24.5	-115	23
Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	BetMGM	Total Yards	Under	57.5	-115	23
Javonte Williams	DEN	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	Over	9.5	-120	24
Corey Davis	NYJ	DraftKings	Receiving Yards	Over	51.5	-115	23

Let’s quickly cover the rationale behind some of these picks.

Dak Prescott OVER Passing Yards

The Carolina Panthers have been stout on defense all year. But they’re facing their toughest test yet, and they just lost first-round cornerback Jaycee Horn to a foot injury.

Prescott has thrown only 53 total passes over the last two weeks, but we’ll play the bounce back in terms of passing volume here.

Jameis Winston OVER Passing Yards and OVER 1.5 Pass TDs

Winston has averaged only 21 passing attempts through three games, and he has yet to throw for even 150 passing yards. But we’ll go with the over here at this low total.

All three of the New Orleans Saints’ games have featured big leads and weirdness that have played into how their offense fared. While they aren’t likely to air it out without WR Michael Thomas, we expect some positive regression here.

With an expected increase in passing volume, there’s also some value here on the over on TDs. The Saints are favored by a touchdown against the New York Giants.

Jared Goff UNDER Passing Yards

The Chicago Bears have quarterback issues, but we’re taking Jared Goff’s under? Well, yes. This game has a low total, so the value here is on Goff to go under.

The Lions figure to take a more conservative approach against the Bears. They won’t want to give the Bears’ defense many opportunities given how much their offense is struggling.

Derrick Henry UNDER Rushing Attempts

The betting market is expecting the Big Dog to eat this week, with a high total of 25.5 rushing attempts. We have to pump the brakes on that.

Henry had 63 carries over the last two weeks, and he’s now facing the lowly New York Jets. With star WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both out, he figures to be in a featured role.

However, Henry gets more rushing attempts when the Titans are playing with a lead. He’s had 26 or more rushes in 13 games since the start of 2018. The Titans are 13-0 in those games, have averaged 30 points, and have averaged 7.2 net yards per pass attempt.

The Titans’ WR injuries reduce the likelihood of a highly efficient passing game to get Henry more touches.

Cole Kmet OVER Receiving Yards

Although Chciago has major quarterback questions, TE Cole Kmet should have a good matchup against Detroit. The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in production allowed to tight ends, and they just gave up 109 receiving yards to Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews.

Kmet needs only 25 yards to hit the over here.

Cordarrelle Patterson UNDER Total Yards

Patterson has been an early surprise, totaling 102 yards last week during the win at the Giants. However, we like the under for this matchup against Washington.

Washington has been vulnerable to wide receivers, but has limited opposing backs. We’ll take the chance that the Falcons will be attacking more heavily with Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.

Javonte Williams OVER Receiving Yards

This one is a combination of a good matchup and Williams’ continued emerging role in Denver’s offense.

The rookie had three catches for 33 yards last week. Baltimore is vulnerable to backs, and QB Teddy Bridgewater will be looking to get the ball out quickly against the Ravens’ pressure.

We expect Williams to carve out a role in the passing game, and he needs only one big hit to go over this number.

Corey Davis OVER Receiving Yards

Two weeks ago, we were all over Corey Davis going under on receptions and yards against the Patriots. Now, we’re ready to jump on the over train here, as the Jets have played a tough early passing schedule.

This matchup against Davis’ former team is much better for him, and we like him to hit this total.