Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 5

We go back to the basics by loading up on quarterback yardage props in Week 5, with picks on Josh Allen, Justin Fields, and more.

Justin Fields has yet to get it going through the air (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

The player prop picks for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season are here.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

NCAA Bracket Picks

March Madness Picks

Brackets - Survivor - Betting

Learn MoreGet Picks Now

Last Week/Overall Summary

Last week was our first week under .500, as we got burned by trying to go contrarian on some extreme performances. For example, Cordarrelle Patterson followed perhaps the best game of his career with an even better game. He may be in line for even more with Atlanta this week.

Derrick Henry continued to get all the carries, and the Titans went to overtime. We also took some shots on some less notable players and failed.

So with a 3-6 finish, we are now 21-18 for the year and +$24.60 overall.

We’ve gotten cute with some different types of props, but we’re going back to basics this week. Quarterback passing yards feature heavily since that’s been our strongest area so far.

Week 5 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we are targeting came from a combination of DraftKings and BetMGM.

PLAYERTEAMCATEGORYO/ULINEODDSBETSPORTSBOOK
Ryan TannehillTENPassing YardsOver238.5-11523DraftKings
Dak PrescottDALPassing YardsOver281.5-11523BetMGM
Justin FieldsCHIPassing YardsUnder205.5-11022DraftKings
Josh AllenBUFPassing YardsUnder306.5-12024BetMGM
Carson WentzINDPassing YardsUnder224.5-11523DraftKings
Derek CarrLVPassing YardsOver279.5-11022BetMGM
Matt RyanATLPassing YardsUnder259.5-11022BetMGM
Darren WallerLVReceiving YardsOver69.5-11523DraftKings
Trevor LawrenceJACRushing YardsOver23.5-11022BetMGM

Let’s quickly cover the rationale behind some of these picks.

Ryan Tannehill OVER Passing Yards

Tannehill’s relatively low total is tempting against a porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Bengals QB Joe Burrow was able to pass at will against them while trailing last week.

Although WR Julio Jones remains out with a hamstring injury, WR A.J. Brown is returning. As such, we expect a good game from Tannehill.

Dak Prescott OVER Passing Yards

We got burned last week by Prescott’s game script. He was efficient and scored four touchdowns, but he attempted only 22 passes with the Cowboys nursing a big second-half lead.

We’ll jump right back on Prescott, who is due for a big yardage game.

The Cowboys is tied for the NFL lead in turnover margin (plus-seven), so Prescott hasn’t had to pass as much recently. We expect some regression toward his preseason expectation against the New York Giants’ 20th-ranked pass defense.

Justin Fields UNDER Passing Yards

Fields has been a low-volume passer so far. He went 6-of-20 for only 68 yards in his first start against the Cleveland Browns, and he was 11-of-17 for 209 yards last week against the Detroit Lions.

With the Las Vegas Raiders more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, expect the underdog Bears to take a ball-control approach here.

Josh Allen UNDER Passing Yards

The Chiefs defense has been a liability so far, but they are getting back several players in the secondary who missed last week’s game against the Eagles. DE Frank Clark is also returning after missing the past two weeks.

The Bills could also try to test the Chiefs run defense to control the ball and clock and keep it out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. We expect a more balanced play-calling philosophy in this one, with a high passing total providing some leeway.

Carson Wentz UNDER Passing Yards

Wentz isn’t particularly good, and he’s still nursing a pair of sprained ankles. He’s also facing a Ravens team that is fresh off a great defensive performance and likes to bring pressure.

Wentz tends to hold the ball too long, which will lead to sacks against the Ravens. That will result in reduced passing volume.

Derek Carr OVER Passing Yards and Darren Waller OVER Receiving Yards

Derek Carr threw for only 196 yards last week last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, ending his hot start to the season.

But we expect the Raiders to try to hit big plays early against the Bears, so we like the value on Carr and Waller getting back on track.

Matt Ryan UNDER Passing Yards

We’ll lean into the news that WRs Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage will not play against the New York Jets.

Matt Ryan is averaging 247.5 only passing yards with Ridley in the lineup. The Falcons may also take a conservative approach here since the Jets have turned the ball over a ton this year.

Trevor Lawrence OVER Rushing Yards

We’ll close with a quarterback rushing prop.

After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, Trevor Lawrence showed more willingness to pull the ball down and run against Cincinnati in Week 4. We expect that to be a general pattern now.

Lawrence should begin scrambling more rather than forcing passes that could get him in trouble while he learns on the job.

NCAA Bracket Picks

March Madness Picks

Brackets - Survivor - Betting

Learn MoreGet Picks Now