Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 6

We go back to the basics by loading up on quarterback yardage props in Week 6, with picks on Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and more.

October 16, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

The player prop picks for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season are here.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We are on a cold streak the last two weeks, going 3-6 in Week 5. That dropped our record to 24-24 overall, but with the vigorish, we are now down $52 overall.

The Raiders’ poor performance in what ended up being Jon Gruden’s last game was costly, as we went 0-2 in that contest.

Week 6 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we’re targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings.

PLAYER	TEAM	CATEGORY	O/U	LINE	ODDS	BET	SPORTSBOOK
Trevor Lawrence	JAC	Passing Yards	Over	234.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	Passing Yards	Over	229.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Baker Mayfield	CLE	Passing Yards	Over	237.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Odell Beckham Jr.	CLE	Receiving Yards	Over	47.5	-115	12	DraftKings
Derek Carr	LV	Passing Yards	Under	264.5	-105	21	BetMGM
Joe Burrow	CIN	Passing Yards	Under	282.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Lamar Jackson	BAL	Passing Yards	Over	229.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Justin Herbert	LAC	Passing Yards	Under	288.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Tyreek Hill	KC	Receiving Yards	Over	83.5	-115	24	DraftKings

Let’s quickly cover the rationale behind some of these picks.

Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa OVER Passing Yards

We are projecting more yards in this fairly even matchup featuring two struggling pass defenses. This game has an over/under of 47.5, which is near the average this week, but both of these quarterbacks are getting totals below 240 yards.

Jacksonville is 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, while Miami is 23rd. Expect both offenses to try to exploit those weak pass defenses early.

Baker Mayfield OVER Passing Yards and Odell Beckham Jr. OVER Receiving Yards

Mayfield is getting a low total here in a game where (a) RB Nick Chubb was just ruled out, (b) WR Jarvis Landry could return, and (c) Arizona’s best pass-rusher, Chandler Jones, is on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

We’ll also roll with Odell Beckham Jr. getting fed the ball more in this matchup. After catching only two passes for 20 yards on three targets last week, he couldn’t hide his frustration while speaking with reporters Thursday.

Derek Carr UNDER Passing Yards

The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to score fewer than 20 points this week against the Denver Broncos. Every other QB in that situation this week has a passing-yards total under 220.

The Raiders also unexpectedly lost their offensive play-caller this week when head coach Jon Gruden resigned. There’s no way to know how this offense will run in his absence, but expecting them to throw for far more yards than their expected points would indicate seems like something to fade.

Joe Burrow UNDER Passing Yards

Burrow has been hot the last two weeks, and he should be able to exploit this matchup against the Lions. But we’ll take the under, as the total has crept up to a high number.

Lamar Jackson OVER Passing Yards and Justin Herbert UNDER Passing Yards

Jackson has gone well over his passing-yards prop in every game this year. The Baltimore Ravens’ Week 6 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers should be no different.

Jackson has a reputation as a low-volume passer and finished with fewer than 3,000 passing yards last year, which is likely playing a role in his low totals. With that said, he already has more than 1,500 passing yards and is averaging over 300 passing yards per game this year.

Injuries have decimated the Ravens’ backfield, so they are leaning more and more on Jackson as a passer. Given the over/under of 51 in this game, we’ll take the over on his passing-yards prop in what projects to be a shootout.

Meanwhile, Herbert’s number is higher, so we’ll fade it just a bit.

Baltimore got torched by Carson Wentz on Monday Night Football, but that was out of character for this defense. If the Chargers utilize some ball control with their running game here and the Ravens don’t give up as many big plays, Herbert is likely to fall short of his projected passing-yards total.

Tyreek Hill OVER Receiving Yards

Some teams have frustrated Kansas City by focusing on Hill, rolling coverages to him and taking him away deep. Buffalo and Baltimore have had some success slowing him down this way.

However, Washington is 29th in Defensive Pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Coming off a game in which he didn’t have many big plays (even though he had seven catches), expect Hill to be a focal point Sunday.

This Washington defense is not playing like Buffalo, to say the least.