Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 8

Our favorite Week 8 player props include a Colts passing combo against the Titans, a tight end going against the Lions, and some veteran unders.

October 29, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are our player prop picks for Week 8 of the 2021 NFL season.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We went 6-3 overall last week. For the season, our prop picks are 32-25.

All of our picks last week were QB passing yard props, using a model that incorporates expected scoring by both teams. Several of the wins hit comfortably, including Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes coming in well below their yardage props, which were over 300. Ryan Tannehill against the Chiefs, Jameis Winston going over his low total, Aaron Rodgers going over against Washington, and Jared Goff going Under hit.

Two of our three losses were in west coast primetime games where the weather conditions turned sour. We broke even, meanwhile, on close results so you could say we were 1-1 in the “Bad Beat” department.

Jared Goff looked poise to go Over his total with late garbage time yards until an interception, while Kyler Murray stayed Under by just a few yards when he never threw another pass in the final 11 minutes of the game, needing one more completion to give us an Over win.

Our QB passing yards plays continue to be a winning strategy, so we’ll continue to stick with them going forward.

Week 8 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we’re targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings.

PLAYER	TEAM	CATEGORY	O/U	LINE	ODDS	BET	SPORTSBOOK
Carson Wentz	IND	Passing Yards	Over	245.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Michael Pittman	IND	Receiving Yards	Over	61.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Jalen Hurts	PHI	Passing Yards	Over	253.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Dallas Goedert	PHI	Receiving Yards	Over	50.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Sam Darnold	CAR	Passing Yards	Over	239.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Matt Ryan	ATL	Passing Yards	Under	281.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	Passing Yards	Under	252.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Tyler Lockett	SEA	Receiving Yards	Over	46.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Daniel Jones	NYG	Passing Yards	Over	241.5	-115	23	BetMGM

As we noted, we’ve worked on a passing yards model based on regression analysis of team scoring and spreads and accompanying team passing-yard numbers.

One game where we like the passers to go Over is in the Indianapolis-Tennessee game. It features a fairly high total and a close spread, two factors that can drive passing yards above expectation. While we have a slight lean on Tannehill, the better value is on Wentz going Over. (The Titans are the most run-heavy team this year once you account for game script, reducing some value on Tannehill relative to a typical QB in this type of game.)

We’ll pair Wentz’ leading receiver, Michael Pittman, on the Over value as well, as #1 receivers have had success against the Titans relative to other receiving options this year.

Some other quick notes:

• Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert: Hurts is going against a bad Detroit pass defense as a moderate favorite, and we’ll pair him with TE Goedert, who will get his chance to shine after the Zach Ertz trade. Top tight ends have had big games against Detroit this year.
• Sam Darnold and Matt Ryan: We’ll play opposite in this matchup, going Over on Darnold and Under on Ryan. Pass defensive differences are driving the totals here, and Carolina’s defense particularly ranks well in defending tight ends and backs, where the Falcons have had success lately.
• Ben Roethlisberger: This one’s all about the Steelers having an expected point total under 20 points, and a relatively high passing number given that expectation.
• Tyler Lockett: our passing yards model has Geno Smith as playable at a low total of 220.5, but we’ll opt instead to just play on a receiver here. Jacksonville has particularly struggled against #2 wide receivers AND there could be an emphasis on getting Lockett involved after being underutilized last game, a good combo at a low number.
• Daniel Jones: some value here on the Giants to pass more heavily against KC as a team expected to score over 20 points in a game with a total above 50.