Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 9

Our favorite Week 9 player props include a couple of Eagles, both quarterbacks in the Ravens vs. Vikings game, and taking a chance on A.J. Brown.

November 7, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are our player prop picks for Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season.

Throughout the season, we will identify our favorite player props. Each week, we will use roughly $200 on various prop bets. We’ll track those picks and hopefully learn a few things along the way.

The general plan is to use the knowledge that went into the season-long projections for fantasy football as well as player injuries, depth charts, and usage. We might incorporate research into various stat categories and distribution of outcomes as well. But this is for fun, so we’ll sprinkle in some entertainment plays, too.

Each week, we’ll summarize the previous week and season-to-date, good or bad, and see how we do.

Last Week/Overall Summary

We went 4-5 overall last week. For the season, our prop picks are 36-30.

Our quarterback passing props had a rare off week, but other players propped up the record. That included some correlated plays in the same game that split.

For example, we recommended both Dallas Goedert over on receiving yards and Jalen Hurts over on passing yards. The game script went strongly against passing, as the Eagles jumped out to a big early lead and won by 38 points, and Hurts threw only 14 passes. (Gardner Minshew II even came in and played in the fourth quarter.) But Goedert still easily went over, as he accounted for a whopping 63 percent of the Eagles’ passing yards.

We also split the Colts’ passing combo, with Michael Pittman Jr. going over with 10 catches, but Carson Wentz going just under. (If we count his interception-return yards, the prop hits.)

Unfortunately, our wins were big, while the losses were either injury-related or close, bad beats. Tyler Lockett smashed his 46.5 receiving-yards total with 12 catches for 142 yards. Matt Ryan easily went under his passing-yards total, throwing for only 146 yards, 135.5 less than his number.

Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger had just over 200 yards with less than two minutes remaining and playing with the lead. The under looked like the correct play. Then he threw one short pass that turned into a 50-yard gain, one of his longest pass plays all season. Yes, we ‘re still bitter about that one.

Week 9 Player Props

Here are the picks we like. We checked a variety of books, and the props we’re targeting came from a combination of BetMGM and DraftKings.

PLAYER	TEAM	CATEGORY	O/U	LINE	ODDS	BET	SPORTSBOOK
Jalen Hurts	PHI	Passing Yards	Over	231.5	-105	21	BetMGM
Dallas Goedert	PHI	Receiving Yards	Over	57.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	Passing Yards	Under	261.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Courtland Sutton	DEN	Receiving Yards	Under	64.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Lamar Jackson	BAL	Passing Yards	Over	242.5	-115	23	DraftKings
Kirk Cousins	MIN	Passing Yards	Under	275.5	-115	23	BetMGM
Marvin Jones	JAC	Receiving Yards	Under	55.5	-120	24	DraftKings
Matt Ryan	ATL	Passing Yards	Under	253.5	-110	22	BetMGM
A.J. Brown	TEN	Touchdowns	Over	0.5	175	14	DraftKings

We’ll jump right back on the Hurts and Goedert train, undeterred by last week’s flukishly large scoring margin that impacted the passing rate.

Philadelphia should be in a competitive game with the Chargers. The Chargers have struggled covering tight ends, and that happens to be the strength of the Eagles offense.

We still see value on Goedert as an elite receiving tight end drawing lower numbers in the aftermath of the Zach Ertz trade.

Some other quick notes:

• Teddy Bridgewater and Courtland Sutton: Dallas’ defense has been tough on top receivers, and the spread and expected points in this one show value on fewer passing yards than Bridgewater’s total.
• Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins: We’ll play each side of this matchup. We’ll take Jackson to go over his passing prop and bet on the Ravens D to bounce back after a week off to lick its wounds from the Bengals loss. The Ravens have otherwise been good at limiting top receivers this season.
• Marvin Jones Jr.: Our models put an under lean on Jacksonville’s passing production against Buffalo’s top-ranked pass defense. That defense, which ranks first in net yards per attempt allowed, will focus on stopping Jones.
• Matt Ryan: We’ll stay on Ryan’s passing totals as being too high given the quality of pass defense, the loss of Calvin Ridley, and the expected points in this one. This game has the third-lowest point total of the week (over/under of 42).
• A.J. Brown: Finally, we’ll sprinkle in an underdog play on A.J. Brown to score against the Rams with Derrick Henry out. The Rams have limited opponents to only nine receiving touchdowns, but that’s in part because of the quality of quarterbacks they have faced. Brown’s former college teammate DK Metcalf accounted for two of those receiving touchdowns a few weeks ago, and we’ll take a shot on Brown to score here in the primetime game.