NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALCN MD
Points 62.2 81.2
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 24.0
Points From Free Throws 11.7 18.0
Shooting ALCN MD
Field Goals Made 22.3 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 55.6
Field Goal % 40.1% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 30.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 63.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 11.7 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 25.8
Free Throw % 72.4% 69.8%
Ball Control ALCN MD
Rebounds 24.8 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 18.4 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 14.1
Turnovers 10.7 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.5
Steals 6.1 4.8
Fouls 15.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Alcorn St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALCN MD
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 72.2
% of Possessions with ALCN MD
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 36.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 29.4%
Player Fouled 19.9% 23.0%
Turnover 15.5% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALCN MD
Shot Blocked 8.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 18.0% 43.3%