NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).
Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA MD
Points 83.6 57.5
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.9 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 38.5 6.0
Points From Free Throws 13.2 15.6
Shooting UVA MD
Field Goals Made 28.8 20.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.0 61.6
Field Goal % 56.4% 32.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 22.6 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 70.4% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 2.0
3 Pointers Attempted 28.4 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 45.2% 9.1%
Free Throws Made 13.2 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 21.1
Free Throw % 73.2% 73.9%
Ball Control UVA MD
Rebounds 32.9 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 15.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 20.6
Turnovers 19.0 16.6
Blocked Shots 6.6 2.8
Steals 11.4 8.6
Fouls 14.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Virginia

Expected Effect: +2.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA MD
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 76.8
% of Possessions with UVA MD
2 Point Attempt 27.1% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 34.0% 23.0%
Player Fouled 22.0% 19.8%
Turnover 26.1% 22.8%
Opponent Steal 11.8% 15.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA MD
Shot Blocked 4.6% 13.2%
Offensive Rebound 38.4% 47.0%