NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MD
Points 76.8 75.8
Total Points   152.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 20.0
Points From Free Throws 13.5 14.0
Shooting ILL MD
Field Goals Made 27.6 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 65.9 66.5
Field Goal % 42.0% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 48.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 43.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.8 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.9% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 13.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 18.4
Free Throw % 76.6% 75.9%
Ball Control ILL MD
Rebounds 45.4 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.2 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 9.8
Turnovers 11.4 7.2
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.7
Steals 3.1 6.9
Fouls 14.6 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MD
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 77.1
% of Possessions with ILL MD
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 56.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 21.5%
Player Fouled 18.1% 19.6%
Turnover 15.3% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 4.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MD
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.3% 24.0%