NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ILL MD
Points 82.0 63.0
Total Points   145.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 26.1
Points From 3-Pointers 32.5 27.9
Points From Free Throws 16.9 9.0
Shooting ILL MD
Field Goals Made 27.2 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 62.9
Field Goal % 46.5% 35.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 13.0
2 Pointers Attempted 27.7 30.6
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 42.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.7 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 16.9 9.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 12.9
Free Throw % 76.9% 70.0%
Ball Control ILL MD
Rebounds 41.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.2 22.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 11.9
Turnovers 6.2 7.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.2
Steals 3.7 3.4
Fouls 11.4 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ILL MD
Total Possessions 66.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 70.5
% of Possessions with ILL MD
2 Point Attempt 35.2% 38.3%
3 Point Attempt 38.9% 40.3%
Player Fouled 25.3% 17.2%
Turnover 9.4% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ILL MD
Shot Blocked 3.6% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 28.2%