NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA MD
Points 74.5 63.0
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 27.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 21.3
Points From Free Throws 15.3 14.2
Shooting IOWA MD
Field Goals Made 25.4 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 46.6
Field Goal % 49.0% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 25.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 15.3 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 20.3
Free Throw % 77.2% 70.0%
Ball Control IOWA MD
Rebounds 28.1 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 8.4
Turnovers 7.8 13.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.4
Steals 6.4 3.8
Fouls 15.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA MD
Total Possessions 64.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 59.7
% of Possessions with IOWA MD
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 34.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 28.7%
Player Fouled 25.7% 24.1%
Turnover 12.2% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA MD
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 28.6%