NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA MD
Points 75.0 63.0
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 27.5
Points From 3-Pointers 26.0 21.2
Points From Free Throws 15.9 14.2
Shooting IOWA MD
Field Goals Made 25.2 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.1 47.0
Field Goal % 49.3% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 27.9 25.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.3% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 15.9 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 20.3
Free Throw % 77.1% 70.0%
Ball Control IOWA MD
Rebounds 28.1 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 21.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 8.8
Turnovers 7.6 12.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.5
Steals 6.2 3.8
Fouls 15.1 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA MD
Total Possessions 63.8
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 60.1
% of Possessions with IOWA MD
2 Point Attempt 38.8% 34.7%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 29.3%
Player Fouled 26.2% 23.7%
Turnover 12.0% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA MD
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 29.6%