NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU MD
Points 76.2 75.8
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 30.5
Points From Free Throws 15.9 11.7
Shooting PSU MD
Field Goals Made 26.3 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 55.9
Field Goal % 49.2% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 27.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 61.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 15.9 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 16.6
Free Throw % 76.3% 70.8%
Ball Control PSU MD
Rebounds 27.4 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 11.0
Turnovers 9.0 11.8
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.6
Steals 6.0 4.4
Fouls 13.7 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU MD
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 67.1
% of Possessions with PSU MD
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 34.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 35.7%
Player Fouled 24.6% 20.2%
Turnover 13.3% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU MD
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 34.5%