NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PSU MD
Points 73.3 75.7
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 31.1
Points From Free Throws 15.9 11.6
Shooting PSU MD
Field Goals Made 25.1 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 55.7
Field Goal % 48.3% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.1 27.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 60.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 28.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.9 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 16.6
Free Throw % 75.9% 70.0%
Ball Control PSU MD
Rebounds 26.6 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 11.2
Turnovers 9.1 11.4
Blocked Shots 1.7 3.5
Steals 6.2 4.4
Fouls 13.3 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PSU MD
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 64.1 66.9
% of Possessions with PSU MD
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 34.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 36.1%
Player Fouled 24.9% 19.8%
Turnover 13.5% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PSU MD
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 35.1%