NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD WIS
Points 70.1 83.5
Total Points   153.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 37.9
Points From Free Throws 13.9 17.4
Shooting MD WIS
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 58.3
Field Goal % 41.3% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 31.4 25.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.7 32.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 38.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 22.0
Free Throw % 70.8% 79.0%
Ball Control MD WIS
Rebounds 36.3 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 8.2
Turnovers 10.1 7.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.1
Steals 3.1 4.7
Fouls 16.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD WIS
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 71.1
% of Possessions with MD WIS
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 32.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 40.9%
Player Fouled 21.0% 23.7%
Turnover 14.4% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 4.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD WIS
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 24.1%