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Maryland at Virginia
Sat Dec 20, 2025
6:00pm ET
Charlottesville, VA
Maryland at Virginia: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Virginia by 16.5, Total Points: 153.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | MD | adv | UVA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 16-17-0 | 17-17-2 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 11-11-0 | 11-10-0 | |
| Streak | W3 | L2 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 7-3-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 7-8-0 | 8-8-1 | |
| Away | 9-9-0 | 9-9-1 |
Maryland Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | Neutral | Coppin St | -28.5 | W by 22 | -6.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | Georgetown | -5.0 | L by 10 | -15.0 |
| 11/11 | Home | Alcorn St | -29.5 | W by 20 | -9.5 |
| 11/15 | Away | Marquette | +8.5 | W by 7 | +15.5 |
| 11/19 | Home | Mt St Mary's | -17.5 | W by 5 | -12.5 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | UNLV | -2.5 | W by 7 | +4.5 |
| 11/25 | Neutral | Gonzaga | +14.5 | L by 39 | -24.5 |
| 11/26 | Neutral | Alabama | +14.5 | L by 33 | -18.5 |
| 12/02 | Home | Wagner | -22.5 | W by 26 | +3.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Iowa | +10.5 | L by 19 | -8.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Michigan | +19.5 | L by 18 | +1.5 |
| 12/20 | Away | Virginia | +16.5 | L by 8 | +8.5 |
| 12/28 | Home | Old Dominion | -14.5 | W by 15 | +0.5 |
| 01/02 | Home | Oregon | +1.5 | L by 10 | -8.5 |
| 01/07 | Home | Indiana | +8.0 | L by 18 | -10.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | UCLA | +13.0 | L by 12 | +1.0 |
| 01/13 | Away | USC | +9.5 | L by 17 | -7.5 |
| 01/18 | Home | Penn St | -1.5 | W by 23 | +21.5 |
| 01/21 | Away | Illinois | +18.5 | L by 19 | -0.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | Michigan St | +18.5 | L by 43 | -24.5 |
| 02/01 | Home | Purdue | +14.5 | L by 30 | -15.5 |
| 02/05 | Home | Ohio St | +6.5 | L by 20 | -13.5 |
| 02/08 | Away | Minnesota | +10.0 | W by 5 | +15.0 |
| 02/11 | Home | Iowa | +11.0 | W by 7 | +18.0 |
| 02/15 | Away | Rutgers | +1.5 | L by 11 | -9.5 |
| 02/18 | Away | Northwestern | +7.5 | L by 4 | +3.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Washington | +2.5 | W by 4 | +6.5 |
| 02/25 | Away | Nebraska | +16.5 | L by 13 | +3.5 |
| 03/01 | Home | Rutgers | -5.5 | L by 4 | -9.5 |
| 03/04 | Away | Wisconsin | +14.5 | L by 33 | -18.5 |
| 03/08 | Home | Illinois | +14.5 | L by 6 | +8.5 |
| 03/10 | Neutral | Oregon | +3.5 | W by 10 | +13.5 |
| 03/11 | Neutral | Iowa | +11.5 | L by 11 | +0.5 |
Virginia Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03 | Home | Rider | -26.5 | W by 34 | +7.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | NC Central | -34.0 | W by 19 | -15.0 |
| 11/11 | Home | Hampton | -24.0 | W by 38 | +14.0 |
| 11/15 | Home | Marshall | -20.5 | W by 26 | +5.5 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | Northwestern | -5.0 | W by 5 | 0.0 |
| 11/23 | Neutral | Butler | -7.0 | L by 7 | -14.0 |
| 11/28 | Home | Queens | -25.0 | W by 25 | 0.0 |
| 12/03 | Away | Texas | +3.0 | W by 19 | +22.0 |
| 12/06 | Neutral | Dayton | -4.5 | W by 13 | +8.5 |
| 12/09 | Home | Maryland ES | -36.5 | W by 24 | -12.5 |
| 12/20 | Home | Maryland | -16.5 | W by 8 | -8.5 |
| 12/22 | Home | American | -27.5 | W by 44 | +16.5 |
| 12/31 | Away | Virginia Tech | -6.0 | L by 10 | -16.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | NC State | +4.0 | W by 15 | +19.0 |
| 01/07 | Home | California | -14.0 | W by 24 | +10.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Stanford | -12.5 | W by 15 | +2.5 |
| 01/13 | Away | Louisville | +4.5 | W by 9 | +13.5 |
| 01/17 | Away | SMU | -2.0 | W by 4 | +2.0 |
| 01/24 | Home | North Carolina | -6.5 | L by 5 | -11.5 |
| 01/27 | Away | Notre Dame | -9.5 | W by 3 | -6.5 |
| 01/31 | Away | Boston College | -12.5 | W by 7 | -5.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Pittsburgh | -12.5 | W by 20 | +7.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Syracuse | -14.0 | W by 13 | -1.0 |
| 02/10 | Away | Florida St | -8.0 | W by 3 | -5.0 |
| 02/14 | Neutral | Ohio St | -5.0 | W by 4 | -1.0 |
| 02/18 | Away | Georgia Tech | -13.0 | W by 26 | +13.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Miami | -7.5 | W by 3 | -4.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | NC State | -6.5 | W by 29 | +22.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Duke | +9.5 | L by 26 | -16.5 |
| 03/03 | Home | Wake Forest | -14.5 | W by 5 | -9.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Virginia Tech | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 03/12 | Neutral | NC State | -6.5 | W by 7 | +0.5 |
| 03/13 | Neutral | Miami | -3.5 | W by 22 | +18.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Duke | +6.5 | L by 4 | +2.5 |
| 03/20 | Neutral | Wright St | -17.5 | W by 9 | -8.5 |
| 03/22 | Neutral | Tennessee | +1.5 | L by 7 | -5.5 |
| UVA -16.5 | Open | -14.5 | High | -16.5 |
| Last | -15.5 | Low | -14.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2020-2021 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1080 games where the closing line favored the home team by 15.5 to 17.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Virginia won the game 1001 times (92.7%).
- The team like Maryland won the game 79 times (7.3%).
- The team like Maryland did better against the spread, going 571-495-14 (53.6% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2022-2023 NCAA Basketball season there have been 984 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 2 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Maryland did better against the spread, going 497-465-22 (51.7% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.3 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -16.5 | -16.5 | -- |
| Open | -14.5 | -16.5 | -- |
| History | |||
| 12/20 05:55 PM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 12/20 05:36 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/20 01:15 PM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/20 12:52 PM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/20 10:25 AM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/20 10:06 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/20 09:15 AM | -- | -14.5 | -- |
| 12/20 09:08 AM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/20 08:25 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/20 08:16 AM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/20 07:25 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/20 06:15 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/20 02:25 AM | -- | -15.5 | -- |
| 12/20 02:22 AM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/19 10:32 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/19 07:25 PM | -- | -16.5 | -- |
| 12/19 04:44 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/19 03:42 PM | -15.5 | -- | -- |
| 12/19 03:40 PM | -14.5 | -- | -- |
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