NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD UVA
Points 62.2 79.3
Total Points   141.5
Points From 2-Pointers 24.1 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 32.9
Points From Free Throws 14.0 14.9
Shooting MD UVA
Field Goals Made 20.1 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 58.1
Field Goal % 34.7% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 29.1
2 Point Shooting % 38.0% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 29.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 14.0 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 20.1
Free Throw % 70.0% 74.0%
Ball Control MD UVA
Rebounds 35.1 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.5
Turnovers 10.0 8.3
Blocked Shots 3.3 6.0
Steals 4.2 5.6
Fouls 15.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD UVA
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 70.2
% of Possessions with MD UVA
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 36.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 36.3%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.3%
Turnover 14.7% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD UVA
Shot Blocked 10.5% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 30.8%