NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD ALA
Points 73.3 88.5
Total Points   161.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 39.0
Points From Free Throws 14.5 18.9
Shooting MD ALA
Field Goals Made 25.0 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 60.5
Field Goal % 39.1% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 25.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 35.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.5 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 24.5
Free Throw % 70.0% 76.9%
Ball Control MD ALA
Rebounds 38.9 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 9.4
Turnovers 9.6 7.5
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.2
Steals 4.1 5.8
Fouls 17.5 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD ALA
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.6 74.9
% of Possessions with MD ALA
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 30.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 41.9%
Player Fouled 20.5% 23.9%
Turnover 13.1% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD ALA
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.9% 26.6%