NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD ILL
Points 64.4 82.7
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 27.7 31.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.7 33.7
Points From Free Throws 9.0 17.4
Shooting MD ILL
Field Goals Made 23.1 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 58.3
Field Goal % 36.3% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 26.8
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 59.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 31.2 31.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 9.0 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 22.0
Free Throw % 70.0% 78.9%
Ball Control MD ILL
Rebounds 34.8 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 11.3
Turnovers 7.8 6.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.2
Steals 3.4 3.7
Fouls 16.7 11.0

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD ILL
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 71.6
% of Possessions with MD ILL
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 33.9%
3 Point Attempt 38.7% 39.9%
Player Fouled 16.4% 25.0%
Turnover 11.6% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD ILL
Shot Blocked 7.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 33.4%