NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD ILL
Points 63.3 82.4
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 26.9 32.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.6 32.7
Points From Free Throws 8.8 16.9
Shooting MD ILL
Field Goals Made 22.6 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 58.5
Field Goal % 35.9% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.9 27.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 8.8 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 22.0
Free Throw % 70.0% 76.9%
Ball Control MD ILL
Rebounds 34.5 41.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 11.4
Turnovers 8.0 6.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.1
Steals 3.4 3.8
Fouls 16.8 11.3

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD ILL
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 71.7
% of Possessions with MD ILL
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 35.2%
3 Point Attempt 40.1% 38.8%
Player Fouled 17.0% 25.3%
Turnover 12.0% 9.4%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD ILL
Shot Blocked 7.1% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 33.6%