NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD IOWA
Points 63.0 75.0
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 26.0
Points From Free Throws 14.2 15.9
Shooting MD IOWA
Field Goals Made 20.8 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 47.0 51.1
Field Goal % 44.4% 49.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 25.5 27.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 59.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 14.2 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.7
Free Throw % 70.0% 77.1%
Ball Control MD IOWA
Rebounds 30.1 28.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 20.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 7.2
Turnovers 12.5 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.1
Steals 3.8 6.2
Fouls 16.7 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD IOWA
Total Possessions 63.8
Effective Scoring Chances 60.1 63.4
% of Possessions with MD IOWA
2 Point Attempt 34.7% 38.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 32.2%
Player Fouled 23.7% 26.2%
Turnover 19.5% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD IOWA
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 25.3%