NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD PSU
Points 75.6 73.3
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 31.1 21.6
Points From Free Throws 11.6 15.9
Shooting MD PSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 52.0
Field Goal % 48.1% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 27.2 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 60.7% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 28.6 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 11.6 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 21.0
Free Throw % 70.0% 75.9%
Ball Control MD PSU
Rebounds 34.7 26.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 20.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 6.0
Turnovers 11.4 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 1.7
Steals 4.4 6.2
Fouls 16.8 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD PSU
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.9 64.1
% of Possessions with MD PSU
2 Point Attempt 34.4% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 36.1% 28.0%
Player Fouled 19.8% 24.9%
Turnover 17.0% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD PSU
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 35.1% 20.3%