NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD MSU
Points 59.6 78.4
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 20.8 35.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.2 25.1
Points From Free Throws 12.5 17.6
Shooting MD MSU
Field Goals Made 19.1 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 54.4
Field Goal % 34.9% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 10.4 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 25.2 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 29.7 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 12.5 17.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 23.0
Free Throw % 70.8% 76.6%
Ball Control MD MSU
Rebounds 29.2 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.1
Turnovers 10.3 9.0
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.0
Steals 4.3 4.7
Fouls 17.5 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD MSU
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.3 68.5
% of Possessions with MD MSU
2 Point Attempt 32.7% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 38.4% 27.8%
Player Fouled 21.2% 25.9%
Turnover 15.3% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD MSU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 32.2%