NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD MSU
Points 62.3 77.9
Total Points   140.2
Points From 2-Pointers 22.0 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 28.0 23.3
Points From Free Throws 12.4 17.9
Shooting MD MSU
Field Goals Made 20.3 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 53.9
Field Goal % 37.1% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 11.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 25.5 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 29.2 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 12.4 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 23.2
Free Throw % 70.0% 77.2%
Ball Control MD MSU
Rebounds 29.2 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 9.5
Turnovers 10.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 4.4 4.8
Fouls 17.7 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD MSU
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 68.0
% of Possessions with MD MSU
2 Point Attempt 33.2% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 38.0% 26.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 26.2%
Turnover 15.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD MSU
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 30.8%