NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).
Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD USC
Points 71.9 82.8
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 28.3 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.2 19.9
Points From Free Throws 17.4 20.8
Shooting MD USC
Field Goals Made 22.9 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 54.3
Field Goal % 35.8% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.1 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.5 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 42.3% 57.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 30.5 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 17.4 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 28.1
Free Throw % 73.3% 74.1%
Ball Control MD USC
Rebounds 36.7 38.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 14.4 8.7
Turnovers 12.2 13.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.7
Steals 5.7 5.5
Fouls 20.8 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: USC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD USC
Total Possessions 76.3
Effective Scoring Chances 78.5 71.7
% of Possessions with MD USC
2 Point Attempt 36.0% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 20.9%
Player Fouled 22.4% 27.3%
Turnover 16.0% 17.5%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD USC
Shot Blocked 10.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.7% 28.1%