NFL Week 1 Mega Preview: Breaking Down All 16 Games (2022)

Our NFL Week 1 preview features over 9,000 words of analysis, news, injuries, and predictions to get you ready for start of the 2022 season.

Josh Allen leads the Bills into LA in the Week 1 opener.

Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season starts Thursday, Sept. 8, with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s a numbers-driven preview of all 16 games, including the latest news, spreads, picks, odds, stats, injuries, preseason outlooks, betting trends, and more.

We dare you to read it all!

Buffalo at LA Rams | New Orleans at Atlanta | San Francisco at Chicago | Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | Philadelphia at Detroit | New England at Miami | Baltimore at NY Jets | Jacksonville at Washington | Cleveland at Carolina | Indianapolis at Houston | Kansas City at Arizona| NY Giants at Tennessee | Green Bay at Minnesota | Las Vegas at LA Chargers | Tampa Bay at Dallas | Denver at Seattle

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1. Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Game Time: Thursday, Sept. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: Buffalo -2.5

News & Notes

The season opener features our top-ranked team (Buffalo) against the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. It could also be a surreal experience for future Hall of Famer Von Miller, who won a Super Bowl with LA last season but will now be on the opposite sideline with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants in the offseason, but that was one of their few major losses. They strengthened their offensive line by signing OG Rodger Saffold and attempted to solve their running back issues by drafting James Cook, the brother of Vikings star Dalvin Cook.

The defense made even bigger moves, with the addition of the aforementioned Miller along with first-round pick CB Kaiir Elam to replace Levi Wallace. The Bills also hope to have star CB Tre’Davious White back from knee surgery soon as they try to replicate a defense that finished first in points and yards allowed in 2021, but he will start the year on PUP and not be playing in the opener.

Los Angeles Rams

The talk of camp has been QB Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury, but the doom and gloom has been quieted for now. He still has go-to WR Cooper Kupp, and the Rams added former star WR Allen Robinson II to help. RB Cam Akers rushed back earlier than expected from an Achilles tear for last year’s playoffs but struggled, and the Rams are hoping he will be better with more time to recover from the injury.

Along with signing Robinson, the Rams added veterans LB Bobby Wagner and CB Troy Hill to a defense that showed some regression last season. Those veterans might help smooth out the defensive issues, but DT Aaron Donald remains the key, with LB Leonard Floyd and CB Jalen Ramsey closely behind in ability and importance.

Betting Blurbs

  • Super Bowl Champs: The defending Super Bowl champion is 9-3 SU and 6-4-2 ATS in its season opener over the last 12 years.
  • Dollar Bills: Since Sean McDermott’s hiring in 2017, the Bills have the best ATS record in the NFL at 48-35-5 (57.8%).

Season Outlook

Buffalo opens the year atop our predictive ratings and has a 14% chance to win the Super Bowl (best in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Rams are fourth in our predictive ratings and have a 9% chance to repeat, second-best in the NFC.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Buffalo (54.6% win odds)

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2. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: New Orleans -5.5

News & Notes

The Saints start a new era with former DC Dennis Allen replacing Sean Payton as head coach. The Falcons have big changes of their own, as former Heisman Trophy winner and Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota gets a second chance as an NFL starter in Atlanta, replacing former MVP Matt Ryan.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have built an elite defense in recent seasons, and they rewarded Allen by promoting him to head coach. He kept most of Payton’s staff around, including former OC Pete Carmichael. The team also brought back QB Jameis Winston following a major knee injury that sidelined him for much of last season.

Winston struggled at times last year, but he will have a vastly improved supporting cast with WR Michael Thomas back from injury and joined by Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave. Pro Bowl RB Alvin Kamara shouldn’t go without mention, either.

The defense has most of its key contributors back from recent seasons, led by DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis, and CB Marshon Lattimore. However, there are big changes from last year’s squad at safety, as veterans Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye replace Malcolm Jenkins and Marcus Williams. They have big shoes to fill on a defense that finished in the top five in points allowed over the last two seasons.

Atlanta Falcons

For the first time since 2007, the Falcons will have an unsettled quarterback situation. Mariota reunited with former Titans assistant turned Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, with third-round pick Desmond Ridder waiting in the wings should things turn south.

Atlanta isn’t without help for its signal callers, as RB Cordarelle Patterson is coming off a breakout season after moving to the backfield full-time, and TE Kyle Pitts had a great rookie campaign. Still, the team will be relying on an inexperienced receiving corps as a result of Calvin Ridley’s season-long suspension, with first-round pick Drake London and newcomer Bryan Edwards headlining the group.

Defensive coordinator Dean Pees has seen it all in his many years of coordinating NFL defenses, including a unit that limped to 29th in points allowed last season. The big-name holdovers on this defense are DT Grady Jarrett and CB A.J. Terrell, though the front office did work to add veterans like LB Rashaan Evans, LB Lorenzo Carter, and CB Casey Hayward to bring some stability.

The Falcons finished dead last in sack rate last season (3.03%), so the veteran linebacker acquisitions along with second-round pick Arnold Ebiketie show the much-needed effort in addressing that issue.

Betting Blurbs

  • Need a vacation: The Falcons were 0-7 against the spread at home last season.
  • Saints Go Marching: New Orleans is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine head-to-head meetings against the Falcons.

Season Outlook

The playoff prospects for both teams aren’t great in 2022. New Orleans is ranked No. 20 in our predictive ratings, with a 46% chance to make the playoffs. Atlanta is far worse, ranking dead last and with only a 5% chance to make the postseason.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: New Orleans (71.7% win odds)

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3. San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: San Francisco -7.0

News & Notes

Two of the top quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL draft face off, as San Francisco’s Trey Lance takes the reins as the 49ers starter against Justin Fields. The game also marks the head coaching debut of Matt Eberflus for Chicago.

San Francisco 49ers

The writing was on the wall for San Francisco to move on from QB Jimmy Garoppolo after trading up in last year’s draft to select Lance. Still, the Niners did retain Garoppolo, who is waiting in th ewings if Lance struggles.

The 49ers were fourth in run-play percentage last season (48.39%). That rate could increase with the mobile Lance under center. The Niners also have third-round RB Tyrion Davis-Price joining RB Elijah Mitchell, RB Jeff Wilson, and multidimensional WR Deebo Samuel.

The other big change for San Francisco comes along the interior of the offensive line, with potentially three new starters.

Despite losing DC Robert Saleh last season, the 49ers defense was excellent thanks to star power like DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, and S Jimmie Ward. They finished third in sack rate last season (8.30%), and second-round pick DE Drake Jackson might make opposing quarterbacks even more fearful.

The Niners struggled at times against the pass last season, including a poor 67.42% opponent completion rate. To rectify that, they spent big money on CB Charvarius Ward and used multiple late-round picks on corners.

Chicago Bears

After cleaning house in the front office during the offseason, the Bears’ goals were initially unclear. They added RT Riley Reiff and OC Lucas Patrick to the offensive line, but it’s unclear if the unit that allowed a league-worst 9.67% sack rate last season is actually better.

The Bears also replaced former star WR Allen Robinson II with lesser-known vets like Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, and N’Keal Harry and drafted 25-year-old Velus Jones in the third round. The main holdovers in the offense that should be reliable options for Fields are RB David Montgomery, WR Darnell Mooney, and TE Cole Kmet.

The defensive changes are even less encouraging, as the Bears allowed former stars OLB Khalil Mack and DL Akiem Hicks to go elsewhere without finding proven replacements. Meanwhile, star LB Roquan Smith demanded a trade recently, and the Bears are likely to start two rookies (Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon) in the secondary. Eberflus has a defensive background, so hopefully he has some tricks up his sleeve.

Betting Blurbs

  • 49ers Fool’s Gold: Despite appearing in two NFC Championship Games during his five-year tenure in San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan has a losing record (43-44 in regular season and playoffs combined) as the team’s head coach.
  • Bear Market: Chicago opens the season favored in only two of its 17 regular-season games, and it’s an underdog by at least a touchdown in six games.

Season Outlook

In spite of the change at quarterback, San Francisco opens the season ranked No. 9 in our predictive ratings with a 63% chance of making the playoffs. Playing well into January is far less likely for the 30th-ranked Bears, who have only a 14% chance of making the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: San Francisco (76.5% win odds)

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4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Cincinnati -6.5

News & Notes

Fresh off their Super Bowl loss to the Rams, the Bengals take on the division-rival Steelers in the season opener. Pittsburgh moves on from retired QB Ben Roethlisberger, with QB Mitchell Trubisky likely to start in Week 1.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Heading into his 16th year in Pittsburgh, head coach Mike Tomlin still has yet to have a losing season. Of course, Roethlisberger was under center in each of the previous 15 seasons. The Steelers drafted QB Kenny Pickett in the first round, but Trubisky looks like the placeholder for now.

The quarterbacks have plenty of nice offensive weapons, including RB Najee Harris, WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens, as well as TE Pat Freiermuth. However, big questions remain on the offensive line. Pittsburgh made some much-needed changes up front, but the unit will likely still be a work in progress after the team averaged only 3.8 yards per carry last season.

The Steelers are synonymous with defense, but they were completely ineffective stopping the run last season with a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry and 143.8 rushing yards allowed per game. DT Larry Ogunjobi and LB Myles Jack have the ability to help in that area. The stars of the defense remain 2021 Defensive Player of the Year OLB T.J. Watt and S Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the team also added to the secondary with CB Levi Wallace.

Cincinnati Bengals

Coming off a knee injury, QB Joe Burrow took the NFL world by storm last season with the help of former LSU teammate WR Ja’Marr Chase. RB Joe Mixon and WR Tee Higgins were also highly productive, but there are some small injury concerns entering the year after Burrow had an appendectomy and Higgins had shoulder surgery. The pair is expected to be ready for Week 1, and Burrow has hope for more help after the Bengals bolstered their weak offensive line (second-highest sack rate in 2021) in free agency and the draft.

For all the talk about their offense, the Bengals wouldn’t have made the Super Bowl without their defensive improvements. The unit made huge strides last season under DC Lou Anarumo, allowing only 21.8 points per game between the regular season and the playoffs.

The secondary still faced its fair share of criticism, so the Bengals reacted by adding three draft picks to that area, including first-round pick Dax Hill. Powerful DEs Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson might be the most feared part of this matchup given the Steelers’ offensive line issues.

Betting Blurbs

  • Tomlin keeps it close: The Steelers are 4-13 under Tomlin when they are underdogs of six points or more, but they are 10-6-1 (61.8%) ATS in those games.
  • ATS Sweethearts: Cincinnati was the second-best ATS team in the league last season at 14-7 (66.7%), trailing only the Cowboys.

Season Outlook

We project the Steelers with a record of 7.6-9.4 as the No. 22 team in the NFL, which would be Tomlin’s first losing season. No. 12 Cincinnati is also projected for some regression, with 9.0 wins and a 47% chance of returning to the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Cincinnati (66.5% win odds)

Matchup
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Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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5. Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Philadelphia -3.5

News & Notes

The Eagles were one of the winners of the offseason, with headline additions like WR A.J. Brown, LB Haason Reddick, and CB James Bradberry. Most of Detroit’s big splashes were in the draft, including first-round picks DE Aidan Hutchinson and WR Jameson Williams.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles were a surprise playoff team after going on a strong late-season run, winning seven of their final 10 games while going run-heavy on offense. That type of offense plays to mobile QB Jalen Hurts’ strengths, but he has an additional option in the passing game after the Eagles acquired Brown from Tennessee. The running back committee that helped Philly averaged 5.0 yards per carry remains mostly intact, led by RB Miles Sanders.

It was important for the Eagles to improve their pass rush after finishing with the fourth-worst sack rate last season (5.01%). DE Brandon Graham returns from injury to help, but first-round pick DT Jordan Davis and Reddick should also add some serious juice. Philly might also get more coverage sacks with Bradberry covering wideouts opposite star CB Darius Slay.

Detroit Lions

It’s easy to forget that QB Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl, in part due to his mediocre play. He QBR last season was only 39.5, the worst since his rookie season. Detroit tried to help by adding WR D.J. Chark and eventually Williams to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE T.J. Hockenson. RB D’Andre Swift could also be a keeper, having surpassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage last season despite playing only 13 games.

Detroit’s defense improved from the most points allowed in 2020 to… the second-most points allowed last year (27.5). As such, it’s easy to see why the Lions used the second overall pick on Hutchinson, but that’s only a start. The franchise continues to dig out from the Matt Patricia era, slowly cleaning house with a defense that allowed a league-worst 7.6 yards per pass attempt last season.

Betting Blurbs

  • Lions fight: Despite winning only three games last season, Detroit was 11-6 ATS, fourth-best in the league.
  • Eagles favored: Philly fared well in its seven games as favorites last season, going 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS.

Season Outlook

Philadelphia has a strong chance to return to the playoffs this season (65%) as the No. 15 team in our predictive ratings. Meanwhile, the Lions’ futility is expected to continue. They come in at No. 27 in our rankings with an 18% chance to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Philadelphia (64.6% win odds)

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6. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Miami -3.0

News & Notes

Few teams had a busier offseason than the Dolphins, as they look to contend in the AFC East. They face a Patriots squad that was a surprise playoff team in 2021 with rookie QB Mac Jones and hopes to build upon that.

New England Patriots

Mac Jones opens Year 2 after leading his team to the seventh-highest scoring offense last season. Most of his supporting cast returns, with the notable exception of OC Josh McDaniels. Instead, New England is allowing former head coaches Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense, a role that neither has held in the NFL.

It bears watching whether New England continues to lean on its two-headed running back monster of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson after finishing seventh in rushing play percentage last season (45.73%) or tries to loosen the reins on Jones following the addition of former Dolphins WR DeVante Parker.

New England has mostly been defined by its defense in Bill Belichick’s 22 seasons with the team. He’s been able to put together elite defenses no matter the personnel, including the third-best scoring defense last season. That will be difficult to replicate after losing star CB J.C. Jackson in free agency, but Belichick might be up for the challenge.

Miami Dolphins

Exciting offense is the name of the game in today’s NFL, and the Dolphins accumulated the parts this offseason to join the club. 49ers offensive assistant Mike McDaniel has taken over the team, and the Dolphins also added WRs Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, RB Chase Edmonds, and OT Terron Armstead. Sophomore WR Jaylen Waddle looked like a developing star last season, so QB Tua Tagovailoa should have all of the tools to revive an offense that averaged only 20.1 points per game last season.

The question is whether the coaching change was at the expense of the defense. Former head coach Brian Flores was acclaimed for his defensive prowess, and last year’s unit finished 15th in points allowed and eighth in sack rate.

The strength of the unit lies in the defensive line, headlined by DE Emmanuel Ogbah, along with an outstanding secondary with CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Jones will miss Week 1, so the Pats could have a matchup to exploit. The addition of OLB Melvin Ingram should further help the pass rush, and the team also retained DC Josh Boyer with the hope it wouldn’t skip a beat.

Betting Blurbs

  • Belichick Has You Covered: The Patriots are an incredible 223-164-8 (57.5%) ATS since hiring Belichick in 2000.
  • New England Kryptonite: Miami has won and covered in three consecutive matchups against the Patriots and six of its last nine.

Season Outlook

We see the Patriots and Dolphins as evenly matched. Neither team has a great shot to challenge the Bills in the AFC East. (Both have below 20% odds of winning the division.) However, the Dolphins have a 43% chance to make the playoffs, while the Pats have a 40% chance.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Miami (59.5% win odds)

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7. Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Baltimore -7.0

News & Notes

The Ravens couldn’t be happier that 2021 is over. They’re looking to rebound from their first losing season since 2015, which featured injuries to QB Lamar Jackson, RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, LT Ronnie Stanley, and CBs Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, just to name a few.

The same can be said for the Jets after last season, but injuries weren’t the main culprit for their poor play. There’s nowhere to go but up after they finished 4-13, marking their sixth straight losing season.

Baltimore Ravens

OC Greg Roman’s run-heavy offense is back, with Lamar Jackson leading the way. It’s unclear who the main running back will be to open the season as J.K. Dobbins gets up to speed following knee surgery, but veteran RB Mike Davis will certainly figure into the game plan.

The trade of WR Marquise Brown puts pressure on second-year WR Rashod Bateman and star TE Mark Andrews to produce even more. Jackson will also be ready to play Superman after an ankle injury ended his 2021 season early.

Baltimore did make the controversial decision to fire DC Don Martindale and recruit former assistant Mike Macdonald from Michigan after one year of regression. Many of the key players on the Ravens defense are getting long in the tooth, including DE Calais Campbell, OLB Justin Houston, and CB Marcus Peters, but they did ad NT Michael Pierce, CB Kyle Fuller, and S Marcus Williams in free agency. They hope the next generation of defense will be led by CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Patrick Queen, EDGE Odafe Oweh, and first-round pick S Kyle Hamilton.

New York Jets

QB Joe Flacco looks like he’ll be under center for Week 1 after Zach Wilson suffered a knee injury in the preseason, though Wilson isn’t expected to miss much time. Either way, the Jets desperately need better quarterback play than what they had last season, when they averaged only 18.2 points per game.

The Jets made a significant effort to fix the offensive line with OG Laken Tomlinson and LT Duane Brown, but most of the other offensive additions occurred in the draft. RB Breece Hall is expected to eventually take the majority of the workload from Michael Carter, while first-round WR Garrett Wilson could potentially be the No. 1 wideout. Former Bengals TE C.J. Uzomah should be a viable outlet receiver, and WR Elijah Moore has a chance to build on a rookie season in which he averaged nearly 50 receiving yards per game in 11 games.

The Jets finished dead last in points and yards allowed last year in spite of head coach Robert Saleh’s background as defensive coordinator of the 49ers. The front four does look vastly improved, with DE Carl Lawson returning from an injury and first-round DE Jermaine Johnson joining star DT Quinnen Williams.

The changes are also apparent in the remade secondary after the Jets selected CB Sauce Gardner in the first round of the draft and signed free agents CB D.J. Reed and S Jordan Whitehead. They also get S LaMarcus Joyner back from injury.

Betting Blurbs

  • Ravens’ Week 1 Dominance: Last year ended a streak of four consecutive Week 1 games in which Baltimore won by at least 20 points. During that streak, the Ravens averaged a 36-point margin of victory.
  • Jets Fail to Takeoff: In addition to their straight-up futility, the Jets have four consecutive losing ATS seasons. During that time, they have the worst ATS record in the NFL at 24-40-1 (37.5%).

Season Outlook

Our preseason projections like the Ravens to return atop the AFC North, giving them a 43% chance to win the division and a 63% chance to make the playoffs. The 28th-ranked Jets remain near the bottom of the NFL, but their 5.8 projected wins are a significant improvement over their 4-13 record from last season.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Baltimore (77.5% win odds)

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8. Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Washington -3.0

News & Notes

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but the Jaguars found a new head coach (Doug Pederson) after a disappointing 3-14 season that earned them the first overall pick in the draft.

Washington addressed its quarterback situation again this offseason by acquiring QB Carson Wentz from Indianapolis, hoping to stabilize a situation that has been in flux since the team lost Kirk Cousins. Of course, Wentz’s failure to develop in Philadelphia was one reason why Pederson was fired from his last stop.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2021 No. 1 overall draft choice Trevor Lawrence looked lost at times last year, but perhaps new coaching and some major personnel additions will do him some good. The Jags spent big on LG Brandon Scherff, WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and TE Evan Engram, while RB Travis Etienne Jr. returns from a foot injury that wiped out his entire rookie season. The results could hardly be worse after Jacksonville averaged only 14.9 points last season, dead last in the league.

The defense wasn’t much better, allowing the fifth-most points (26.9 per game). The Jaguars came out firing in the draft by selecting OLB Travon Walker first overall and ILB Devin Lloyd at No. 27. They also added veterans DT Folorunso Fatukasi, LB Foyesade Oluokun and CB Darious Williams to what’s become an almost annual rebuild.

Washington Commanders

Washington starts the Commanders era with QB Carson Wentz, who was run out of both Philadelphia and Indianapolis due to his inconsistent play. The Commanders are gambling that he will be an improvement over QB Taylor Heinicke, and they’ve added some help with WR Jahan Dotson and two new guards.

Third-round RB Brian Robinson was set to be part of that equation, but his status is now in doubt after he was shot in a robbery attempt. Holdover RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic will likely carry the load early in the season, while capable WRs Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel provide viable targets for Wentz.

Washington might have had the league’s most disappointing defense last season. The Commanders allowed more than 25 points per game despite heavy draft and financial commitments on that side of the ball. DE Chase Young is set to miss the start of the season while recovering from knee surgery, but the team has three other former first-round picks remaining on the defensive line and 2021 first-round LB Jamin Davis at the second level.

Washington’s secondary was plagued by poor play last season, allowing 7.3 yards per passing attempt. The Commanders haven’t done much to address that personnel-wise.

Betting Blurbs

  • Pederson Doesn’t Travel: Doug Pederson has a .500 record ATS as a head coach, but his Eagles were only 16-25 SU and 17-24 (41.5%) ATS on the road.
  • Jags Like Week 1: For all the futility of the Jaguars organization, they are 14-13 SU and 16-11 (59.3%) ATS in their history in Week 1 games.
  • Washington Dominance: This will be the eighth all-time meeting between the two franchises. Washington has won six of the previous seven games, including the last four contests.

Season Outlook

We project Jacksonville to remain one of the worst teams in the league, ranked No. 29 with only a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The Commanders’ odds of returning to the playoffs aren’t much better at only 31%, as they’re ranked well below average at No. 23.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Washington (57.8% win odds)

Matchup
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9. Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Carolina -2.5

News & Notes

It’s QB Baker Mayfield’s revenge game, as the former Brown makes his debut with Carolina against his former team. He won’t be facing the quarterback (Deshaun Watson) whom the Browns acquired to replace him, though. Instead, the Browns will start backup QB Jacoby Brissett while Watson serves his 11-game suspension.

Cleveland Browns

The Watson situation has been the main topic of Cleveland’s entire offseason. The Browns will hope to tread water with Brissett under center until Watson returns, which likely means they will lean on the run. That’s nothing new for a team that had the sixth-highest run percentage last season (46.02%) behind the capable trio of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D’Ernest Johnson.

Lost in the quarterback situation is that the Browns have remade their wideout corps, adding WRs Amari Cooper and rookie David Bell.

For the most part, Cleveland’s defense is the same as last season, with the notable exception of DT Taven Bryan making his way from Jacksonville. The Browns defense did well in preventing yards last season (third), but they were only 14th in points allowed. They struggled to stop teams in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 65.38% of those trips (28th in the NFL).

Defensive stars DE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward will need to step up early given the expected offensive limitations.

Carolina Panthers

Head coach Matt Rhule is entering his third season in Carolina in what could also be his final opportunity. He has yet to make progress after coming over from the college ranks, but he also had especially poor luck with quarterback issues and RB Christian McCaffrey‘s injuries over the last two seasons.

The addition of Mayfield could be a last-ditch attempt to get it right, and he certainly has help with McCaffrey, WRs DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, and an improved offensive line. There’s almost nowhere to go but up after the offense averaged only 17.9 points per game last season.

The defense underwent almost a complete rebuild when Rhule took the reins, so it was unsurprisingly still a work in progress last season. The Panthers got off to a hot start, allowing only 30 points in the first three games, before first-round pick CB Jaycee Horn suffered a season-ending injury. The team has clearly hit on draft picks like DE Brian Burns and S Jeremy Chinn, and Horn looked like a star before his injury, so there is young talent in Carolina.

The Panthers did add veterans at all three levels of their defense this offseason, including DT Matt Ioannidis and S Xavier Woods to hopefully help bring the youngsters along.

Betting Blurbs

  • Browns Disappointment: While Cleveland has a winning record since hiring head coach Kevin Stefanski, it is only 15-20 ATS under him.
  • Matt Rhule Drools: Hired in the same year as Stefanski, Panthers head coach Matt Rhule has a similar ATS record of 14-19 in two seasons, though the team’s 10-23 SU record is tied for the fifth-worst in the league.

Season Outlook

Watson’s temporary absence could be enough to prevent Cleveland from making the postseason. The Browns are the third-ranked team in the AFC North (No. 21 overall), with only a 35% chance to make the playoffs. The Panthers aren’t far behind at No. 24, with 24% odds to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Carolina (54.8% win odds)

Matchup
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Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
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Efficiency Stats
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10. Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Indianapolis -8.0

News & Notes

The Colts enter Week 1 with their fourth different starting quarterback in four years, as the Matt Ryan era begins.

They will face a Texans squad now on their third head coach in three years, as former Bears, Bucs, and Illinois head coach Lovie Smith takes the helm.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are coming off a disappointing 9-8 season. They missed the playoffs for the second time in four years because of a bad loss to Jacksonville in the final week.

Despite four consecutive losing seasons in Atlanta, the Colts hope Ryan is the answer to all of their problems. He certainly has a better supporting cast in his new digs, as RB Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing last season and WR Michael Pittman Jr. is quickly becoming a No. 1 wideout after tallying 88 catches for 1,082 yards last year.

The Colts also drafted WR Alec Pierce in the second round, and they still have a beefy offensive line led by All-Pro OG Quenton Nelson. They finished eighth in points per game last year (26.5), and it bears watching whether they are more aggressive now that they have a more trustworthy quarterback.

The defense will have to contend without former coordinator Matt Eberflus, but Indy hired longtime defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to replace him. The Colts will also be without star LB Shaquille Leonard for the start of the season, which could take a toll on their run defense.

Fortunately, their offeseason additions have the potential to offset the losses, including DE Yannick Ngakoue and CB Stephon Gilmore. The defensive line looks downright scary with Ngakoue joining DT DeForest Buckner and second-year DE Kwity Paye, which should help them improve upon last year’s poor sack rate of 5.24% (26th).

Houston Texans

Houston has a number of problems, as consecutive four-win seasons indicate. The Texans are giving QB Davis Mills a chance to prove he’s the long-term answer after he showed flashes in his rookie season.

He will hand off to impressive rookie RB Dameon Pierce, and he still has star WR Brandin Cooks available down the field. Even with the changes on the offensive line, there remains some concern about the blocking for a unit that ranked 24th in sack rate and dead last in average yards per carry last season.

Smith led the defense last season, so there won’t be much of an adjustment period. Still, the unit finished 27th in points and 31st in yards allowed last season, so there’s some ground to cover.

DE Jonathan Greenard appears to be a keeper after recording eight sacks in 12 games last season. The secondary should get a jolt with early draft picks CB Derek Stingley Jr. and S Jalen Pitre. Otherwise, the defense is an intermingling of youth and veterans past their primes like DEs Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes, LB Christian Kirksey, CB Steven Nelson, and S Eric Murray.

Betting Blurbs

  • The Reich Stuff: Indy has performed well as road favorites during Frank Reich’s tenure (albeit in a small sample size) at 8-5 ATS.
  • Messin’ With Texans: The Colts have dominated the Texans in their recent head-to-head matchups. They’re 7-1 SU and ATS over the last eight games.

Season Outlook

Our projections see the Colts as the favorites in the AFC South, with a 53% chance to win the division and a 9.9 win projection. Not surprisingly, the Texans are in the cellar again with only a 2% chance to win the division as the 31st-ranked team in the league.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Indianapolis (80.7% win odds)

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11. Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Kansas City -4.5

News & Notes

Who’s ready for some offense? The Chiefs have finished among the top 10 in points per game in five straight seasons, including fourth last year (29.4), while Arizona continues to ascend with QB Kyler Murray, ranking 10th in 2021 (25.6).

Kansas City Chiefs

QB Patrick Mahomes leads an offense that had a serious makeover at wideout this offseason. After trading star WR Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs brought in WRs JuJu Smith Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore. One option who probably won’t miss a beat is TE Travis Kelce, who’s coming off six consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

The defense needed more work in the offseason after finishing 17th in points and 26th in yards allowed last year. The Chiefs used their two first-round picks on CB Trent McDuffie and DE George Karlaftis and added veterans DE Carlos Dunlap and S Justin Reid.

The Chiefs lost some talent in the secondary with CB Charvarius Ward and S Tyrann Mathieu both departing, but they’re hoping some youth can spur the unit after two down years. Without Mathieu, the leader of the defense is likely to be DT Chris Jones, who has earned three consecutive Pro Bowl nods.

Arizona Cardinals

Murray’s offseason was like a soap opera. It featured passive-aggressive social media posts, a make-nice acquisition of former college teammate WR Marquise Brown, an eventual contract extension, and then further controversy with a “homework” clause in the contract that was later removed. We just hope Murray can muster enough energy after all of that to play football.

He still has lead RB James Conner in the backfield, though more dynamic RB Chase Edmonds left for Miami. Brown will need to make up for the loss of WR Christian Kirk, along with WR DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game suspension. The team isn’t without alternatives, as WRs Rondale Moore and A.J. Green remain on the roster, along with TE Zach Ertz.

DC Vance Joseph has gotten the most out of what he has with a unit that was 16th in points and 12th in yards last season. Star pass-rusher Chandler Jones left in free agency for the Las Vegas Raiders, although oft-injured DE J.J. Watt does enter the season healthy. The team didn’t get much from 2021 first-round LB Zaven Collins last year, and the secondary looks thin outside of star S Budda Baker. Kansas City’s receiving depth could test Arizona, who acquired former Raiders CB Trayvon Mullen at the 11th hour.

Betting Blurbs

  • Masterful Reid: The Chiefs have finished with a winning record every year since Andy Reid took over in 2013. Under Reid, they’ve had the second-best record in the NFL at 112-49, and they’ve been the fifth-most profitable at 88-70-3 (55.7%) ATS.
  • Striking Early: Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals are a perfect 3-0 ATS in Week 1 since he took over in 2019, and they are 18-8 ATS (69.2%) in Weeks 1-9.

Season Outlook

The Chiefs open 2022 ranked No. 2 in our predictive ratings, but they have only a 37% chance to win the brutal AFC West. Their Super Bowl odds stand at 9%, third-best in the NFL. Arizona, our 19th-ranked team, has a 42% chance to return to the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Kansas City (63.0% win odds)

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12. New York Giants at Tennessee Titans

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Tennessee -5.5

News & Notes

The Giants cleaned house yet again in the offseason, firing head coach Joe Judge and hiring former Bills OC Brian Daboll. The Titans have far more stability, with HC Mike Vrabel entering his fifth season and the franchise currently on a run of six consecutive winning seasons.

New York Giants

Former first-round pick QB Daniel Jones could be getting his final chance with the Giants this season. While the Giants have done a disservice to him with continuous coaching changes, that doesn’t excuse his propensity for turning the ball over. He has 29 interceptions and 36 fumbles in 38 career games. An overhauled offensive line with four new starters, including first-round RT Evan Neal, can’t hurt.

Jones will have RB Saquon Barkley healthy, at least for now. Since winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2018, Barkley has played only 28 games in three seasons. We also saw evidence of those injuries with his poor 3.7 yards per carry last season.

The old Giants front office seemed to strike out on WR Kenny Golladay, giving him big money in free agency last offseason only for him to flounder. The offense needs more production out of him, as well as second-year WR Kadarius Toney, veteran WR Sterling Shepard, and two rookies that figure to be on the field, WR Wan’Dale Robinson and TE Daniel Bellinger.

Daboll was able to recruit acclaimed former Ravens DC Don Martindale to run the Giants’ defense. He has plenty of talent in the front seven with DE Leonard Williams, DT Dexter Lawrence, OLB Azeez Ojulari, and first-round EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux to execute the scheme he ran in Baltimore. The secondary does remain raw, however, with nearly every starter having three years or less of NFL experience under their belt.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee’s offense has leaned on the run in recent seasons, especially since the emergence of star RB Derrick Henry. After trading top receiver WR A.J. Brown and moving on from WR Julio Jones this offseason, we might even see the Titans run even more this season.

QB Ryan Tannehill has built a reputation over the last three seasons in Tennessee as a bit of a game manager. He hasn’t topped 4,000 passing yards in any of those seasons. That formula has allowed him to go 30-13 as a starter during the regular season, though.

The Titans did add WRs Robert Woods and Treylon Burks during the offseason, with the former having a track record of big production in LA. Woods is coming off of knee surgery, but he’s likely to emerge as the team’s No. 1 receiver right away. The team also might get more production from tight end after losing Jonnu Smith last offseason, as veteran TE Austin Hooper has shown promise as both a receiver and run blocker.

The Titans still have the potential to play punishing defense coming off a season in which they finished seventh in sack rate and held opposing offenses to under four yards per carry. Some of the supporting cast has changed, and the Titans lost star pass-rusher Harold Landry for the season last week. But the remainder of the core, including DT Jeffery Simmons, OLB Bud Dupreeand S Kevin Byard, remains the same.

Betting Blurbs

  • Vrabel Doesn’t Beat Expectations: Mike Vrabel’s Titans are 11-4 when they’re favorites of five points or more, but they are only 6-9 ATS in those games.
  • Remember the Titans Wins: The Giants and Titans don’t square off very often, but Tennessee has dominated the series recently. They are 6-1 SU and ATS over the last seven games, dating back to 1997.

Season Outlook

We don’t expect much improvement this season from Daboll’s squad, as they open the season ranked No. 25 with only a 25% chance to make the playoffs. Tennessee slightly trails Indianapolis in division win odds at 36%, but the Titans have a 50% chance to return to the playoffs as our No. 14-ranked team.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Tennessee (64.4% win odds)

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13. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Green Bay -1.5

News & Notes

The Packers were able to bring back QB Aaron Rodgers, but the big story in the offseason was their numerous losses at wide receiver.

Minnesota finally moved on from HC Mike Zimmer after eight seasons and turned to Kevin O’Connell of the vaunted Sean McVay coaching tree.

Green Bay Packers

Like Rodgers, you might watch the players catching passes in Green Bay and ask, “Who are these guys?” Gone are WRs Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown. Instead, Rodgers will be throwing to the likes of WRs Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson. A period of adjustment seems likely despite Rodgers’ status as the two-time defending MVP.

The Packers have a great running game to fall back on. They still have the one-two punch of RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, giving Rodgers some security if things aren’t going his way through the air.

The defense also has more promise after finishing 10th in points and eighth in yards allowed last season. Green Bay spent two first-round picks on that side of the ball and will get star CB Jaire Alexander back from a shoulder injury that limited him to only four games last season. The team was also able to bring LBs Preston Smith and De’Vondre Campbell back in free agency and saw promising development from former first-round OLB Rashan Gary last season.

Minnesota Vikings

Few would argue that QB Kirk Cousins is elite, but he’s done well in support of the great weapons around him. WR Justin Jefferson is on a historic early-career pace after gaining more than 3,000 yards over his first two seasons, and veteran WR Adam Thielen continues to produce.

The backfield remains in good hands with RB Dalvin Cook, who has averaged over 80 rushing yards per game in four of his five NFL seasons, albeit with multiple injuries. The team also addressed a right guard position that was like a turnstile for opposing defenders last year, adding second-round pick Ed Ingram.

The Vikings’ identity was defense for most of Zimmer’s tenure, and their sudden decline on that side of the ball was probably the biggest reason for his firing. Minnesota ranked 24th in points and 30th in yards allowed last year, so DC Ed Donatell could have his work cut out for him. The pass rush hasn’t been a big issue, however, and it should get further help if DE Danielle Hunter can stay healthy and help former Packers OLB Za’Darius Smith.

Longtime Vikings LB Eric Kendricks and S Harrison Smith also remain productive, but the team needs more out of the rest of the secondary. Spending three early-round picks on that area, including a first-rounder on S Lewis Cine, showed the new Vikings front office was well aware of those deficiencies.

Betting Blurbs

  • Flourishing LaFleur: Green Bay has the best ATS record in the league since HC Matt LaFleur took over in 2019 at 34-20 (63.0%).
  • Over Streak: The NFC North rivals have hit the over in four consecutive matchups, with the winning team scoring at least 28 points in each of those games.

Season Outlook

We like the Packers to win the NFC North again, with a 83% chance to claim their fourth consecutive division title. They are also the favorite in the NFC, with a 20% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 10% chance to win it all. Minnesota is only No. 18 in our rankings, but it has a favorable 54% chance to return to the playoffs after a two-year hiatus.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Minnesota  (50.9% win odds)

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14. Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: LA Chargers -3.0

News & Notes

The Raiders made the playoffs last season despite firing HC Jon Gruden midseason after an off-field controversy. They’re looking to run it back with former Broncos head coach and Patriots OC Josh McDaniels leading the show.

The division rival Chargers have big hopes of their own after making multiple high-profile additions on defense this offseason to help them get over the hump.

Las Vegas Raiders

QB Derek Carr is coming off a busy and highly productive season in which he set career highs in completions and yards. He has more help after the Raiders acquired former Packers star and Fresno State teammate WR Davante Adams, joining WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller. The Raiders now have receiving options to rival any in the division and an aggressive play-caller in McDaniels to keep them busy.

It remains to be seen how the Raiders distribute snaps among their running backs. Former first-round RB Josh Jacobs was active during the early Hall of Fame game, which suggests he already might have fallen out of favor with the new coaching staff. Rookie RB Zamir White and former Patriots RB Brandon Bolden are looming behind him. It might not be of major consequence if the makeshift offensive line doesn’t perform, as things are looking dire for a unit that has multiple new starters and moving parts.

Former Giants DC Patrick Graham inherits some pass-rushing talent with foundational OLB Maxx Crosby and star acquisition OLB Chandler Jones, though there are also concerns. The secondary has some issues after multiple failed draft picks, but former Colts CB Rock Ya-Sin might help solidify a unit that allowed over 25 points per game last season.

Los Angeles Chargers

QB Justin Herbert‘s stock continues to rise after he threw for more than 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns last season. The Chargers have gone a long way in fixing their offensive line in recent seasons, investing significant draft capital and cap space, and RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, and WR Mike Williams have proven to be in the upper echelon.

HC Brandon Staley made his name as a defensive coordinator. The Chargers can only hope the second year is the charm after they allowed a putrid 27.0 points per game last season. They’ve certainly added big-name help with OLB Khalil Mack and CB J.C. Jackson, while DE Morgan Fox, NT Sebastian Joseph-Day, and CB Bryce Callahan are nice complementary pieces. They join stars OLB Joey Bosa and S Derwin James, who are healthy after some injuries in recent years.

Betting Blurbs

  • Aggressive Chargers: Known for their aggressive play-calling and propensity to go for broke on fourth downs under Staley, the Chargers had a 10-7 over record last season.
  • Closely Matched Divisional Games: The spread has been 3.5 points or less in five of the last six matchups between the Chargers and Raiders, and the underdog is 4-2 in those games.

Season Outlook

Las Vegas enters the season ranked No. 13, but with only a 39% chance to make the playoffs in the tough AFC West. The Chargers are ranked No. 6, and they have solid odds to end their three-year postseason drought with 63% odds to make the playoffs. However, they still trail the Chiefs’ odds to win the division at 29%, compared to 37% for KC.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: LA Chargers (59.6% win odds)

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15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: Tampa Bay -1.5

News & Notes

It’s deja vu for the Bucs and Cowboys, as they open the 2022 season with the same opening matchup as 2021. Both teams also have high expectations after they won their respective divisions last season but lost early in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a brief retirement, QB Tom Brady is back. He went on a planned hiatus for much of training camp, but the 45-year-old is hoping to win his eighth Super Bowl this season. Gone is familiar face TE Rob Gronkowski, but the team has added WRs Russell Gage and Julio Jones, plus TE Kyle Rudolph. That isn’t to mention holdover star WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with RB Leonard Fournette.

The defense did see some changes, most notably in the front seven. DT Akiem Hicks replaced Ndamukong Suh and the team also moved on from EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul.

Former DC Todd Bowles was awarded for his work with a promotion to head coach following Bruce Arians’ retirement, as the Bucs finished seventh in points allowed last season.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys led the NFL in points last season (30.4), but it might take a magic act from QB Dak Prescott to maintain that production after their offseason losses. The Cowboys traded WR Amari Cooper and lost WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. in free agency, but even more noticeable could be the preseason knee injury for LT Tyron Smith. The loss of Smith compounds with other line changes to make life tougher for RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. (The team did just sign 40-year-old veteran Jason Peters to help with depth on the line.)

Much of Dallas’ improvement last season was the emergence of the defense under DC Dan Quinn. The Cowboys improved to eighth-best in points allowed and first in takeaways, with breakout seasons from LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys didn’t have the resources to make many defensive additions during the offseason, so they’ll have to hope the unit can take another step forward in Quinn’s second season.

Betting Blurbs

  • Polar Cowboys: Dallas had the best ATS record in the league last season at 13-5, but that followed a season in which it was the worst in the league at 5-11.
  • Not Road Warriors: The Bucs haven’t fared particularly well as road favorites during the Tom Brady era, at only 7-10 ATS since 2020.

Season Outlook

The Bucs are our No. 5-ranked team entering the season, with a 64% chance to repeat as NFC South champs and 8% odds to win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are the No. 11-ranked team in our predictive ratings, but they are virtually tied with the Eagles in NFC East division-winner odds at 39%.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Tampa Bay (52.5% win odds)

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16. Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Game Time: Monday, Sept. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

Point Spread: Denver -6.5

News & Notes

Welcome to the Russell Wilson Bowl. The former Seahawks quarterback was traded to Denver in the offseason, but he didn’t need to wait long to revisit his former home in Seattle.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos hired former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach and then really went off with a bang this offseason. Denver’s long search for a quarterback now seems to be over with Wilson in the fold. He has a history of success with nine winning seasons in 10 years in Seattle, though a finger injury and a 6-8 record as a starter last season was his last before going to Denver.

He inherits a nice set of weapons with RB Javonte Williams and WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Unfortunately, the team lost productive No. 3 WR Tim Patrick to an ACL injury during training camp.

The Broncos defense has been consistently strong in recent years, but it underwent some big changes over the last year, trading away OLB Von Miller and DE Shelby Harris. Free-agent signing Randy Gregory might be able to pick up some of the slack, and Denver has to like where it stands in the secondary with S Justin Simmons and CB Pat Surtain II around for the long term.

Seattle Seahawks

Just as Bill Belichick had to prove he could win without Tom Brady, Pete Carroll is now out to prove he can win without Wilson. The first replacement will be journeyman QB Geno Smith, who is an ugly 13-21 as a starter during his nine-year career.

Seattle still has great receiving options with WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, along with new TE Noah Fant, but it will likely lean more on the run given the quarterback situation. RB Rashaad Penny was spectacular when he got healthy late last season, averaging a league-high 6.3 yards per carry, and the team also drafted RB Kenneth Walker III in the second round.

Wilson wasn’t the only franchise staple that the Seahawks lost this offseason. They also moved on from LB Bobby Wagner. Former first-round LB Jordyn Brooks has big shoes to fill, and team also added OLB Uchenna Nwosu and second-round OLB Boye Mafe to the linebacking corps.

Seattle has done well at developing defensive backs during Carroll’s tenure. Two-late round rookies (Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen) could see significant playing time next to veterans Sidney Jones, Jamal Adams, and Quandre Diggs.

Betting Blurbs

  • For Pete’s Sake: The Seahawks have been the NFL’s fifth-best team ATS at 111-93-7 (54.4%) since hiring Pete Carroll in 2010.
  • Denver’s Early Advantage Doesn’t Carry Over: The Broncos have an impressive 21-14-2 ATS record in Week 1 since 1985, but most of that success has come at home. They are only 6-7 ATS on the road.

Season Outlook

We see big improvement ahead for Denver this season, ranked No. 8 overall. Still, the Broncos have only a 51% chance to make the playoffs due in part to a tough schedule in the AFC West. The rebuilding Seahawks are now No. 26, with a 13% chance to make the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Denver (75.2% win odds)

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