Three NFL Week 11 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)
These NFL Week 11 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.
November 16, 2022 - by Jason Lisk
T.J. Watt is a difference maker for the Steelers (Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)
Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when it turns into a winning bet.
In this article, we pick three NFL Week 11 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.
Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.
(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)
Upset Picks Results to Date
Last Week: 2-1 for +2.2 units
2022 Season: 12-18 for +4.3 units
Last week we finally got back on track as close-game luck rebounded in our favor, notably in the wild finish to Vikings-Bills.
- Arizona (+154) beat the Rams in the battle of the backup QBs, 27-17.
- Minnesota (+165) had a wild comeback that included an end-zone fumble by Josh Allen, and won in overtime 33-30.
- Houston (+190) had a red-zone fumble and interception against the Giants, losing 24-16.
Week 11 NFL Upset Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Point Spread: +4.0
This is currently our top-rated moneyline play for Week 11, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
We already posted this game in as a Staff Pick this week when the line was available at +5.0.
Pittsburgh just got DE T.J. Watt back last week for the first time since their upset win over the Bengals in Week 1, held the Saints to 10 points, and generated two turnovers after having none in the previous three games.
The Steelers are also 11-5-1 in games Watt plays over the last two years, and 1-8 in games he has missed.
Chicago Bears (at Atlanta Falcons)
Point Spread: +3.0
This one is currently right at the edge of being a playable pick according to our models, but some team trends make it more interesting.
Chicago has lost three straight games, including two close losses in the last two weeks. However, the Bears have scored 31 points per game over the last four weeks after embracing more designed runs for QB Justin Fields.
Atlanta’s offense is going the other way, as it has finished with 315 yards or fewer in five of its last six games. Opponents have outgained the Falcons by more than 800 yards this year, and Atlanta has finished with fewer total yards than their opponent in nine straight games.
Atlanta’s defense is not good, ranking 31st in total yards allowed. While the Falcons have been relatively better against the run than the pass, they also haven’t played any running quarterbacks yet this season. While Chicago’s defense has also struggled recently, the offense is rolling.
Cleveland Browns (at Buffalo Bills)
Point Spread: +8.0
This is our second-highest playable moneyline value pick this week, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
The forecast in Buffalo calls for “lake-effect” snowstorms potentially up until kickoff, which could impact the favored Bills more than the Browns. The Bills are the higher-volume passing team, while Cleveland runs at a higher rate.
Given the potential weather impact along with Bills QB Josh Allen’s recent elbow injury, we will grab the higher-variance potential here of a Cleveland upset in less-than-ideal conditions.
2022 Upset Pick History
Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.
So far this season, 19 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 11 picks had negative CLV.
|WEEK||PICK||OPPONENT||WED ML||CLOSING ML||CLOSE VALUE||RESULT|
|1||Minnesota||Green Bay||105||-130||Yes||W, 23-7|
|1||NY Giants||Tennessee||210||200||Yes||W, 21-20|
|2||New Orleans||Tampa Bay||125||124||Yes||L, 20-10|
|2||NY Jets||Cleveland||215||220||No||W, 31-30|
|2||Atlanta||LA Rams||400||372||Yes||L, 31-27|
|3||Carolina||New Orleans||135||115||Yes||W, 22-14|
|3||Indianapolis||Kansas City||228||190||Yes||W, 20-17|
|4||New York Jets||Pittsburgh||150||140||Yes||W, 24-20|
|5||Dallas||LA Rams||180||198||No||W, 22-10|
|6||New Orleans||Cincinnati||113||148||No||L, 30-26|
|6||Denver||LA Chargers||203||165||Yes||L, 19-16|
|6||Carolina||LA Rams||380||345||Yes||L, 24-10|
|7||San Francisco||Kansas City||131||-103||Yes||L, 44-23|
|8||NY Giants||Seattle||135||145||No||L, 27-13|
|8||Carolina||Atlanta||182||177||Yes||L, 34-31 (OT)|
|9||New Orleans||Baltimore||125||112||Yes||L, 27-13|
|10||Arizona||LA Rams||154||163||No||W, 27-17|
|10||Houston||NY Giants||190||199||No||L, 24-16|
Upset Pick Expectations
Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.
If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.
If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.
Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.
Week 11 Betting Picks & Models
If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.
If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.
And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.