Past Picks

NCAAB picks are 227-205-5, for +23.2 units of profit (assuming 1 unit risked on every pick).

NBA picks are 14-29, for -9.1 units of profit (assuming 1 unit risked on every pick).

Current Picks

NCAAB Spread

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Drake vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 21 • 10:05pm ET

NCAAB Spread

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Charleston vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 22 • 7:35pm ET

NCAAB Spread

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Morehead St. vs. Illinois

Thu Mar 21 • 3:10pm ET

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NCAAB Spread

Kent St. +4.5 -110

Won: 61-62

Kent St. vs. Akron

Sat Mar 16 • 7:30pm ET

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How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Akron.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis.
  • Kent State has played better with their current lineup, and has put together two of their best performances in the MAC tournament.
  • Akron has been struggling on offense. Their overall rating over the last six games has been lower, even though opponents have shot under 30% from three in the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. The issue is turnovers and overall offensive efficiency.
  • Kent State ranks inside the top 100 in turnover rate, and we'll play the underdog who is peaking against a team that could be vulnerable and struggling on offense.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 627

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M +2.5 -110

Lost: 90-95

Texas A&M vs. Florida

Sat Mar 16 • 3:30pm ET

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How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points against Florida.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a pick based on roster trends.
  • One word: Obaseki. Okay, more than one, but after a terrible stretch through SEC play where they really struggled on defense, Buzz Williams went to a true-3 guard offense, inserting Manny Obaseki to play as a starter with Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor. 
  • The results have been huge, a Game Score over +22, scoring over 80 points a game, and the three combining for 75 in the win over Kentucky yesterday. Obaseki (40% from three) has brought an element this team was lacking, as they were really struggling on offense playing a bigger player at the 3 with Radford and Taylor all year, who was a worse shooter.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 615

NCAAB Spread

Florida +4.5 -108

Won: 102-88

Florida vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

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How it wins: Florida wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Alabama's rating is a little inflated by being able to beat up on really bad teams, and their average rating against top competition is lower.
  • Florida plays at pace like Alabama, and has had success in both games against the Tide in the regular season, winning by 18 in Gainesville and losing in OT at Alabama (and covering) in a game where they had a 9-point lead with six minutes left.
  • So we will continue to fade this Alabama defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency, when getting points against them.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 825

NCAAB Spread

San Diego St. -4.5 -115

Won: 86-70

San Diego St. vs. Utah St.

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game by more than 4 points against Utah State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Both teams are coming off OT wins in the quarterfinals, Utah State's margin ended up being 12 points in OT, against a depleted Fresno State team, but it was a much worse performance than San Diego State against host UNLV.
  • Utah State was without starting freshman guard Mason Falslev, who missed the quarterfinal against Fresno State, and based on the coach's comments yesterday, is not likely to be ready a day later.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 867

NCAAB Spread

Boston College +5.5 -110

Lost: 60-66

Boston College vs. Virginia

Thu Mar 14 • 9:30pm ET

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How it wins: Boston College wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 against Virginia.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Virginia has really struggled on offense down the stretch, with four really poor performances on offense in the last 7 games. The average Game Score has only been +3.6 over that span, after being over +11 in all games prior.
  • Boston College is coming off a 21-point win over Clemson in the previous round. Three of BC's best four Game Scores have come in the last four contests. While some of that has been driven by poor opponent 3-point rates, they have also dominated on the offensive glass for four straight games, and limited opponents to under 48% on two-point shots in all four, after doing that only three times in ACC play up until that point.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 733

NCAAB Spread

Stanford +8.0 -108

Lost: 62-79

Stanford vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 14 • 9:00pm ET

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How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Washington St.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Stanford is better with the current lineup playing. In the 13 games with the current lineup (which starts with freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle taking over, and excludes the three games missed by Spencer Jones), the Cardinal have a +7.8 rating versus +4.6 in all other games.
  • Washington State has had a great season, and has been better overall since Jaylen Wells became a starter. However, they closed poorly after the Arizona upset win at Tucson, and it has largely been because of defense. The last four opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% or better (and it is not driven by extreme outside shooting splits), after holding 8 of the 9 previous opponents under 50% effective FG%.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 779

NCAAB Spread

Kansas State +8.0 -110

Lost: 57-76

Kansas State vs. Iowa State

Thu Mar 14 • 7:00pm ET

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How it wins: Kansas State wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Iowa State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and matchups.
  • Our raw power rating difference (7.8) is very similar to the game line but we have reason to believe that there is value on Kansas State when digging in.
  • Iowa State's rating is a bit inflated by their performance against cupcakes. Against the weakest 8 opponents in the non-conference, they had an average Game Score of +27.0 vs. +16.8 in all other games.
  • Iowa State was substantially better at home than road/neutral situations this year, Iowa State's average home Game Score was +23.8 and road/neutral was +13.8 (average venue expectation should be adjusted for in the Game Score, so these are extreme splits after already accounting for that).
  • Since K-State went to starting lineup switch to go with more guards, starting Dai Dai Ames and bringing David N'Guessan off the bench, their average rating is +12.4 over 11 games, versus +8.8 for all previous games.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

NCAAB Spread

Ohio -9.5 -110

Won: 82-55

Western Michigan vs. Ohio

Thu Mar 14 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio wins the game against Western Michigan by more than 9 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Some of the model factors being picked up are related to Western Michigan's low rate of turnovers forced versus turnovers committed, and Ohio's advantage there.
  • Ohio is 11-2 ATS against teams ranked outside the top 200 in offensive turnover rate, and only 5-12 against all others.
  • Western Michigan is ranked 321st nationally in offensive turnover rate.
  • Western Michigan did upset Ohio by 2 at home in their only meeting this year, one of the two non-covers for Ohio against poor turnover teams, but early foul trouble and an outside shooting percentage advantage actually negated the turnover advantage Ohio had (+8), and Ohio did almost come back from a 10-point deficit late with their ability to create pressure.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 718

NCAAB Spread

Texas Tech +3.5 -110

Won: 81-67

Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech

Thu Mar 14 • 12:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against BYU.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and trends.
  • Both teams are playing really well right now, but we show value on Texas Tech being better than perception based on recent lineup performance. Tech has overcome injuries, and the loss of Warren Washington (who has missed 4 straight and 6 of last 7) has resulted in a big minutes increase for sophomore Robert Jennings, who has responded with strong offensive rebound numbers.
  • Over the last 10 games, Tech has an average Game Score of +15.4 (three points better than all other games) and three of their best performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 752

NCAAB Spread

Michigan St. -6.5 -110

Won: 77-67

Minnesota vs. Michigan St.

Thu Mar 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State wins the game by more than 6 points against Minnesota.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • We also show slight value on this line in our adjust lineup spreads.
  • Michigan State is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against teams in the top 50 at avoiding turnovers, and 16-7-1 ATS against all others. Minnesota ranks outside the top 200 in that category.
     

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 736

About Our Staff Picks

We created the Staff Betting Picks feature to address several opportunities to provide more value to our subscribers:

  • BetIQ and TeamRankings offer a LOT of predictions and data, but it’s not fast or easy to parse through it all. Some subscribers just want to see a short list of our top/favorite picks.
  • Many bettors enjoy reading the rationale behind a recommended pick, as opposed to blindly trusting “because the model said so” as the reason.
  • Our algorithmic models for NFL and college football make predictions for full-game point spread, over/under, and moneyline bets. However, there’s a lot more to bet on than that.
  • Although bet size limits tend to be lower for markets like props and futures, those types of markets sometimes offer some of the biggest edges.
  • Our model predictions often change as they digest new data such as betting line movement and new game results. That approach has a lot of benefits, because the predictions shown always reflect the most up-to-date data we have. However, some subscribers just want to see a pick that doesn’t change.
  • As we do research on teams and players, sometimes we see a situational or one-time angle on a bet that we are confident provides expected value, and that angle may not be something that our models are well trained to pick up. Models typically need a lot of historical data to work well, and deep historical data simply doesn’t exist for situations that are less common (e.g. quirky injuries or weather or another more creative angle).

Some (and potentially the majority) of our Staff Picks will be drawn from top-rated model picks, but we’ll explain the data angle(s) that our models are likely seeing. Other Staff Picks may not be even be favored by our models, but we’re making a judgment call to overrule them.

Finally, some Staff Picks will be bets like player props and futures that our game models don’t currently cover, or more market-based value opportunities that we see (e.g. an off-market line offered by a particular sportsbook).

For each pick we make, we will note the sportsbook that offered it, and the associated line/payout odds at the time when we published it.