Staff Picks 2022

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick (53.8%) according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
• The Jaguars are coming off a 24-0 win over Indianapolis in Week 2, and looking far more competent this year under HC Doug Pederson compared to the Urban Meyer disaster a year ago.
• Last year's first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (after averaging 6.0 as a rookie) and has found a connection with new WR Christian Kirk.
• Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in the Thursday Week 2 game at Kansas City. While he could still play through the painful injury by Sunday, we'll grab this line at a touchdown for value against either a limited Herbert or backup QB Chase Daniel.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable total pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model, with 53.1% cover odds.
• This pick is a correlated bet with the Carson Wentz pass attempts Under staff pick.
• The matchup looks like one where the Commanders might adopt more of a run-pass balance approach given how explosive the Eagles offense is, combined with their strong pass defense but rush D that has given up big plays.
• Both teams rank in the top 3 in third down conversion rate early in the year, an area of regression potential and value, where the scoring will go down if both teams see their third down rates regress toward league average.
• Both are also in the top 10 in red zone TD rate, and Washington is tied for best in the league so far, scoring a TD on 6 of 6 drives that reached the opponent 20. That is unsustainable and an area of value potential on the total.
  
   

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model pick against the spread on Sunday morning, at 55.3% cover odds.
• This line has been moving up from 4.5 points earlier in the week.
• We like the matchup of the Bengals WR against the Jets secondary, as the Jets haven't faced a high volume of passes so far because they have trailed most of the both games, but they rank in the bottom 5 in net yards allowed.
• The Bengals WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a matchup problem, and the Bengals should have an opportunity for big plays.
• Cincinnati's 0-2 start, and their loss last year in an upset at the Jets, should have them focused and ready to play aggressively in this game.

Staff notes:

• Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Colts a 52.6% chance of covering this line.
• The Chiefs are an extremely popular pick so far. In spread pool data from PoolGenius, 84% of the public is taking the Chiefs -6.5, easily the largest discrepancy so far this year, and an indication of public sentiment on this game.
• So far this year, teams with >70% ATS pool pick popularity are 2-5 ATS.
• Indianapolis is coming off getting shutout by the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a game where they were missing their top two wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce).
• Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off getting shutout the week before are 19-9-3 ATS.
• The Indianapolis passing game was horrific without Michael Pittman, but we are grabbing this on the likelihood that he is back for Week 3. Rookie Alec Pierce, who also missed the last game with a concussion, profiles as the deep threat for this offense.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread pick according to our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models. 
• We want to jump on this line before it gets too pricey at the 3-point spread, or moves below a FG. Right now, most books have the juice heavier on taking the underdog, so shop around.
• Carolina has lost two close games to start 0-2, but rank 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense.
• Saints QB Jameis Winston was revealed to play on Sunday with four fractured vertebrae, and he took 6 sacks while also throwing 3 interceptions and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
• Winston was 1-for-7 with two interceptions on passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play for Sunday's game. 
• So we are playing on the Panthers' D and against Winston's health status and ability to make throws while playing through the back injury.
   

Staff notes:

• *This is one of our top-rated playable spread picks this week in college football (56.4% cover odds)
• Colorado has been easily the worst major conference team in FBS, losing by 25 to TCU, 31 to Air Force, and 42 to Minnesota.
• They cannot pass the ball (barely over 4 yards per attempt) but make up for it by not being able to stop the run at all. Colorado is allowing 363 rushing yards a game, dead last in FBS.
• UCLA is averaging over 200 yards rushing per game, and has a big advantage on the lines in this game, where they rank top 30 in both rushing yards gained and allowed so far.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick (50.2% cover odds by our models) but is a staff pick based on how Kansas has looked so far this year.
• This Kansas team is the story of the year so far, and has had a major breakout from how bad the program has been for a decade, in head coach Lance Leipold's second year with the program.
• From 2012 to 2021, Kansas went 11-97 SU and 42-63-3 ATS and was the worst major program in FBS.
• However, they beat Texas toward the end of last year, and then played well in the last two games (two close losses and covers).
• Kansas has started this year with impressive road wins at West Virginia and Houston. They've now covered five straight games, spanning this year and last, by an average of 22.3 points.
• The Jayhawks have scored 48 or more points in all three wins so far this year, and currently rank 3rd in the nation in scoring.
• So we are jumping on the momentum of this program, as being much better than the preseason power ratings and expectations (priors) and providing value still because of that, against the market.