Past Picks

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NCAAB Spread

Utah St. -4.5 -110

Won: 84-73

New Mexico at Utah St.

Wed Feb 1 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game by more than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • The model is picking up some of the differences in defensive performance and opponent splits on two-point versus three-point shots as a factor.
  • Utah State and New Mexico rank similarly in overall defensive efficiency in Mountain West play, but New Mexico is dead last in conference play in two-point defense percentage and block rate, and 1st in three-point percentage against. Utah State is 1st in two-point percentage defense but 10th in three-point percentage.
  • New Mexico is also a low volume outside shooting team, playing into Utah State's strengths, as the Lobos have the 10th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the country.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 728

NCAAB Spread

Furman -10.5 -110

Won: 79-58

Chattanooga at Furman

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins by more than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player news.
  • Chattanooga lost star center Jake Stephens to an injury three games ago, and are 1-2 ATS and SU, and are 10.5 points worse than their performance in games with Stephens so far, in that limited sample size. 
  • They did cover and win their last game, but that was entirely due to three-point shooting, as they hit 12-of-23 from deep, and were +18 in three-point scoring in a 9-point win. Chattanooga shot only 34% from inside the arc without Stephens in that game.
  • Furman is 7-1 ATS since the start of January, and is third nationally in two-point shooting (58%), and should have an advantage inside against a team playing without its best rebounder, shot blocker, and interior scorer.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 674

NCAAB Spread

New Hampshire -2.5 -105

Won: 74-67

New Hampshire at NJIT

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Hampshire wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It is also a pick based on player news and participation trends.
  • New Hampshire has been about 10 points better with Nick Johnson in the starting lineup, compared to the first seven games of the year.
  • NJIT has been without leading scorer Miles Coleman after he left early in the game three games ago. They did upset UMBC in the last game, but that is entirely due to outside shooting differences (5-of-21 for UMBC vs. 9-of-19 for NJIT from three) offsetting disadvantages at inside scoring and turnovers.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306533

NCAAB Spread

Kentucky -7.5 -110

Won: 75-66

Kentucky at Mississippi

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the game by more than 7 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • These teams are also going in opposite directions in recent trends.
  • Kentucky's current starting lineup for the past five games, with Cason Wallace starting at PG and Sahvir Wheeler coming off bench, has been nine points better than their first 16 games, when they had several injuries and shifting lineups.
  • Ole Miss has been 7.5 points worse over the last 10 games compared to the first 11 games of the year, and were https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Kermit-Davis-reveals-why-Daeshun-Ruffin-was-left-at-home-when-Ole-Miss-Rebels-faced-Oklahoma-State-203837970/without starters Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin in the last game at Oklahoma State.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 645

NCAAB Spread

West Virginia +2.5 -105

Lost: 72-76

West Virginia at Texas Christian

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on player news.
  • TCU's Mike Miles, the leading scorer for the Horned Frogs, suffered a hyperextended knee in the first few minutes of Saturday's loss at Mississippi State, and is out indefinitely. 
  • In 4 games that Miles has missed or left early (Saturday's game) so far this year, TCU is 7 points worse than in games that he plays regular minutes.
  • West Virginia also has a matchup advantage in offensive rebounding, where TCU ranks 298th nationally in defensive rebounding while the Mountaineers are 28th in offensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 647

About Our Staff Picks

We created the Staff Betting Picks feature to address several opportunities to provide more value to our subscribers:

  • BetIQ and TeamRankings offer a LOT of predictions and data, but it’s not fast or easy to parse through it all. Some subscribers just want to see a short list of our top/favorite picks.
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  • As we do research on teams and players, sometimes we see a situational or one-time angle on a bet that we are confident provides expected value, and that angle may not be something that our models are well trained to pick up. Models typically need a lot of historical data to work well, and deep historical data simply doesn’t exist for situations that are less common (e.g. quirky injuries or weather or another more creative angle).

Some (and potentially the majority) of our Staff Picks will be drawn from top-rated model picks, but we’ll explain the data angle(s) that our models are likely seeing. Other Staff Picks may not be even be favored by our models, but we’re making a judgment call to overrule them.

Finally, some Staff Picks will be bets like player props and futures that our game models don’t currently cover, or more market-based value opportunities that we see (e.g. an off-market line offered by a particular sportsbook).

For each pick we make, we will note the sportsbook that offered it, and the associated line/payout odds at the time when we published it.