Three NFL Week 14 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 14 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

December 8, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 14 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 0-2-1 for -2.0 units
2022 Season: 14-24-1 for +1.2 units

Week 13 of the NFL season saw betting market favorites go 13-1-1 straight up. We hit the tie, at least, but did not have the Bengals over Chiefs (the only upset that happened last week).

• New York Giants (+114) played to a 20-20 tie with Washington as neither team could score in overtime.
• New York Jets (+132) finished with over 200 more yards than the Vikings but came up short, 27-22. Minnesota moved to a very lucky 9-0 in close games.
• Houston (+265) couldn’t get the upset even though Deshaun Watson did struggle in his return to the NFL, losing 27-14.

Week 14 NFL Upset Picks

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Moneyline: +145
Point Spread: +3.0

This is a playable moneyline spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model. All three of our underlying models (Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Rating) also show value on a Chargers upset at home here.

It’s been a disappointing season so far for Los Angeles, as they have battled injuries that have hampered the offense. Wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have yet to play a full game together this year, but it could potentially happen this week. Williams returned to practice on a limited basis on Wednesday for the first time in nearly a month.

Among their other issues, the Chargers’ run defense has also been a major negative, as they rank dead last in opponent yards per carry. However, attacking that flaw is not Miami’s strength, as the Dolphins use a high-volume passing attack that ranks 30th in rush attempts and 28th in rushing yards this season.

Baltimore Ravens (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Moneyline: +121
Point Spread: +2.5

This is another playable moneyline model pick. Because of an injury to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, we get an opportunity to play on Baltimore as an underdog and against Pittsburgh here.

While Jackson is no doubt important to the Ravens, QB Tyler Huntley is at least a competent backup who was able to engineer a game-winning drive against Denver last week. By our predictive power ratings, Baltimore is 6.9 points better than Pittsburgh this year to this point. This line would suggest that the combo of playing in Pittsburgh and going from Jackson to Huntley is worth somewhere around 9.5 points, which feels like at least a slight potential overreaction.

Since 2002, the home team in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is 18-22-3 ATS, and these northern outdoor division rivalry games tend to show little home field advantage.

Carolina Panthers (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +178
Point Spread: +4.0

This final upset pick is not a playable model pick this week, but based on team trends and against public popularity.

Since head coach Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over, the Panthers are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS. The team just granted Baker Mayfield his release; Mayfield was statistically the worst of the three Carolina QBs that have played this year, and had already been benched by Wilks. QB Sam Darnold had a solid game in his season debut last week, averaging over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in a low-volume game against a tough Denver pass defense.

But the biggest shift has come on the other side of the ball, where Carolina’s defense (and particularly the pass defense) has been very good over the last seven games. Opposing starting QBs are averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt since Wilks took over coaching duties. Carolina has held five of the last six opponents under 350 yards in regulation, with the only exception being the Bengals.

Seattle, meanwhile, has underperformed point spread expectations in its last three games. On offense, running back Kenneth Walker sustained an injury in the last game and is uncertain for this week. The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed, and nearly allowed a limited Rams team with backups at key positions on offense to score 27 points last week.

Seattle is also an extremely popular pick in our pick’em pool public data, with 81% of the public picking the Seahawks in spread pools, and 96% in game winner pools. We will fade that popularity, and play on the team performing better lately.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 25 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 14 picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20
8	NY Giants	Seattle	135	145	No	L, 27-13
8	Arizona	Minnesota	167	170	No	L, 34-26
8	Carolina	Atlanta	182	177	Yes	L, 34-31 (OT)
9	New Orleans	Baltimore	125	112	Yes	L, 27-13
9	Washington	Minnesota	155	145	Yes	L, 20-17
9	Carolina	Cincinnati	275	270	Yes	L, 42-21
10	Arizona	LA Rams	154	163	No	W, 27-17
10	Minnesota	Buffalo	165	215	No	W, 33-30
10	Houston	NY Giants	190	199	No	L, 24-16
11	Chicago	Atlanta	150	125	Yes	L, 27-24
11	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	177	160	Yes	L, 37-30
11	Cleveland	Buffalo	293	300	No	L, 31-23
12	Tennessee	Cincinnati	110	-106	Yes	L, 20-16
12	Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	120	115	Yes	W, 24-17
12	Jacksonville	Baltimore	165	152	Yes	W, 28-27
13	New York Giants	Washington	114	114	No	T, 20-20
13	New York Jets	Minnesota	132	130	Yes	L, 27-22
13	Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	265	280	No	L, 27-14

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 14 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.