Three NFL Week 15 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 15 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

Can the Giants end their slide? (Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 15 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 3-0 for +4.4 units
2022 Season: 17-24-1 for +5.6 units

Week 14 brought the revenge of the underdogs, as several smaller dogs barked loudly. That included all three of our upset picks for the week, giving us the first 3-0 week since the early season.

  • Baltimore (+121) won an ugly defensive game 16-14 vs. the Steelers, even with backup QB Tyler Huntley getting hurt.
  • LA Chargers (+145) shut down the Miami offense and won 23-17.
  • Carolina (+178) continued their recent good form, beating Seattle 30-24.

Week 15 NFL Upset Picks

New York Giants (at Washington Commanders)

Moneyline: +184
Point Spread: +4.5

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Before last season, we wrote about the lack of home field advantage in NFC East division games. Going back to 2002, home teams had only won around 51% of the time, and covered the spread less than 46% of the time. Specific to the Giants-Commanders rivalry, the home team since 2002 is only 21-19-1 straight up and 18-23 against the spread.

These teams just played to a tie two weeks ago, which means Washington, coming off a bye, is playing consecutive games against the Giants. New York was crushed at home last week by Philadelphia, and hasn’t won a game since November 13th. But we’ll make a contrarian play on the Giants to end that skid in a matchup that is a lot closer to even, particularly if there is no pronounced home field advantage.

These teams may look like they are going in opposite directions, but that opinion is exaggerated somewhat by schedule (the Giants have faced the Cowboys and Eagles in the last four games) and luck factors. Washington has had very positive fumble luck during their recent 6-1-1 run, during which they’ve also gone a fortunate 4-1-1 in close games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Moneyline: +168
Point Spread: +3.5

This is our-highest rated moneyline value model pick this week. The Buccaneers are coming off an embarrassing performance, losing 35-7 at San Francisco. Their offense has consistently underperformed in terms of expected points compared to total yards gained.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati appears to be surging, beating Kansas City and Cleveland in recent games. So is this a crazy move, or crazy like a fox?

The Bengals do have some offensive injuries, as tight end Hayden Hurst is out, and both WR Tee Higgins and WR Tyler Boyd were hurt last week; their status as of midweek is up in the air. On defense, DE Trey Hendrickson and CB Mike Hilton are both expected to miss this game, and the Bengals’ secondary could be thin.

Tampa Bay’s defense was embarrassed last week, but that side of the ball has been pretty good most of the year, and has only allowed more than 21 points in four of 13 games. Also, in three games as a home dog since Tom Brady arrived, the Bucs are 2-1 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.

Tennessee Titans (at Los Angeles Chargers)

Moneyline: +138
Point Spread: +3.0

This final upset pick is not a playable model pick this week, but one based on team trends. We played on the Chargers last week, but are playing against them this week for a similar reason: the matchup.

The Chargers’ biggest flaw has been their porous rush defense, but they were going against a Miami team that rarely ran the ball and does not run it efficiently. That is not the case this week, where the Titans will try to pull the upset with an explosive rushing attack that could be able to extend drives against the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the Titans have been giving up passing yards—which may seem bad going against Justin Herbert and the Chargers—but their rush defense has been stellar. They rank 2nd in yards per carry allowed for the year, but have played even better over the last seven games, allowing only 3.0 yards per rush in that span. They have also surrendered a league-low six rushing touchdowns. If the Titans can bend but not break, it can be tough to grind out scores against them in the red zone.

Tennessee just got beat at home by the Jaguars, but a -4 turnover margin made that loss look worse than it was. The Titans have also gone a month without a takeaway, a positive regression factor that could improve their chances.

Last but not least, and the Titans have been a great underdog team under head coach Mike Vrabel, likely because they can control the line of scrimmage against pass-heavy teams. Tennessee is 12-8 straight up and 13-7 against the spread as an underdog since the start of the 2020 season.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 27 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 15 picks had negative CLV.

WEEKPICKOPPONENTWED MLCLOSING MLCLOSE VALUERESULT
1MinnesotaGreen Bay105-130YesW, 23-7
1NY GiantsTennessee210200YesW, 21-20
1PittsburghCincinnati232266NoW, 23-20
2New OrleansTampa Bay125124YesL, 20-10
2NY JetsCleveland215220NoW, 31-30
2AtlantaLA Rams400372YesL, 31-27
3HoustonChicago125145NoL, 23-20
3CarolinaNew Orleans135115YesW, 22-14
3IndianapolisKansas City228190YesW, 20-17
4New York JetsPittsburgh150140YesW, 24-20
4WashingtonDallas155135YesL, 25-10
4SeattleDetroit180151YesW, 48-45
5WashingtonTennessee115-110YesL, 21-17
5DallasLA Rams180198NoW, 22-10
5HoustonJacksonville270260YesW, 13-6
6New OrleansCincinnati113148NoL, 30-26
6DenverLA Chargers203165YesL, 19-16
6CarolinaLA Rams380345YesL, 24-10
7IndianapolisTennessee125120YesL, 19-10
7San FranciscoKansas City131-103YesL, 44-23
7ClevelandBaltimore230240NoL, 23-20
8NY GiantsSeattle135145NoL, 27-13
8ArizonaMinnesota167170NoL, 34-26
8CarolinaAtlanta182177YesL, 34-31 (OT)
9New OrleansBaltimore125112YesL, 27-13
9WashingtonMinnesota155145YesL, 20-17
9CarolinaCincinnati275270YesL, 42-21
10ArizonaLA Rams154163NoW, 27-17
10MinnesotaBuffalo165215NoW, 33-30
10HoustonNY Giants190199NoL, 24-16
11ChicagoAtlanta150125YesL, 27-24
11PittsburghCincinnati177160YesL, 37-30
11ClevelandBuffalo293300NoL, 31-23
12TennesseeCincinnati110-106YesL, 20-16
12PittsburghIndianapolis120115YesW, 24-17
12JacksonvilleBaltimore165152YesW, 28-27
13New York GiantsWashington114114NoT, 20-20
13New York JetsMinnesota132130YesL, 27-22
13Houston Cleveland 265280NoL, 27-14
14Baltimore Pittsburgh 121110YesW, 16-14
14LA ChargersMiami145146NoW, 23-17
14Carolina Seattle178167YesW, 30-24

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 15 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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