Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 5 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 5 upset picks that stand out as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on data angles.

October 6, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 5 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals)

Point Spread: +5.0

Moneyline: +203

The Arizona Cardinals are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL, but they also lead our season miscues rankings by being +9. That means they’ve had nine fewer turnovers, missed field goals, or missed fourth downs than their opponents.

Here are some luck elements that might have gone Arizona’s way so far:

• Opposing kickers are only 7-of-11 on extra points, and 4-of-7 on field goals against Arizona.
• Arizona is 3-for-3 on fourth down while their opponents are 2-for-5, meaning fourth-down plays have gone Arizona’s way 6 of 8 times.
• Arizona has recovered 5-of-9 opponent fumbles, and recovered all three of their own.

Those factors can all contribute to Arizona being a little overvalued now, especially coming off a big win against the Rams where they were +4 in miscue differential.

Meanwhile, San Francisco was -4 in the miscue category last week, and lost a game to Seattle despite having 223 more total yards. If these luck factors start to even out this week, San Francisco would benefit.

Add in rookie QB Trey Lance potentially starting, and some potential variance associated with offensive adjustments could also help the 49ers’ chances.

Finally, our Decision Tree and Ensemble Forecast models also see value on the 49ers this week, with those “luck” factors playing a role.

New York Jets (vs. Atlanta Falcons in London)

Point Spread: +3.0

Moneyline: +145

The Jets’ offense finally got going last week against the Titans, after facing a very tough defensive slate in the first three weeks. Atlanta (24th) is a lot closer to Tennessee (29th) in passing yard per attempt allowed than the Jets’ other opponents have been this year.

Jets QB Zach Wilson should again feel more comfortable in this matchup.

Two rookie coaches are making the trip to London for this one, a scenario that tests schedules, preparation and planning for even veteran coaches. With both teams struggling at 1-3, taking the points may prove to be wise.

Our Similar Games and Predictive Ratings Models also see value on the Jets in this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Carolina Panthers)

Point Spread: +3.5

Moneyline: +157

Philadelphia has given up over 40 points each of the last two weeks against Dallas and Kansas City. But the offense has quietly been much better than even the points scored reflect.

The Eagles only have two official turnovers on the season (one of those being a pick-six against Dallas), but they have squandered lots of opportunities.

For example, Philadelphia is one-of-seven on fourth down opportunities this year, with most of them coming near the scoring zone. Several of those have come up just short. Six fourth down misses is the second-most for any team so far this year, behind only Detroit.

Carolina, meanwhile, still has injury issues, particularly the costly loss of cornerback Jaycee Horn. In the first game without him, and with a step up on offensive class, the Panthers gave up over eight yards per pass and failed to record a sack. They have traded for Stephon Gilmore, but he won’t be available until later in the year.

The Eagles are a respectable 12th in yards per pass attempt while ranking first in yards per rush attempt so far. If the defense can improve at all, the offense is capable of winning this one on the road against an opponent that may not be as good as its early numbers due to injury.

Year-To-Date Results

Through two weeks, our highlighted upset picks are 3-3 both against the spread and on the moneyline, hitting on Seattle over San Francisco and the New York Jets over Tennessee in Week 4. Against the moneyline at time of publication, we are +2.7 units.

Importantly, comparing the moneylines of our highlighted picks on the date of publication to closing moneylines, four games showed closing line value, one stayed the same, and only one had a worse moneyline by kickoff.

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 5 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 5 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 4 Betting Recap