Three NFL Week 6 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 6 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

Week 13 NFL upset picks

Austin Ekeler and the Chargers will face a Denver team looking for a breakout (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when it turns into a winning bet.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 6 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 2-1 for +3.5 units
2022 Season: 10-5 for +14.1 units

We hit two of three upset picks again last week, and came within one play of a 3-0 sweep:

  • Houston got its first win by beating Jacksonville, 13-6.
  • Dallas held the Rams to 10 points in a 22-10 win on the road.
  • Washington had the ball on the goal line at the end of the game with a chance to win, but QB Carson Wentz threw an interception, resulting in a 21-17 loss.

A full history of upset picks we’ve made so far in 2022 appears at the end of this article.

Week 6 NFL Upset Picks

Denver Broncos (at Los Angeles Chargers)

Moneyline: +203
Point Spread: +5.0

This is the top playable moneyline pick according to our models for Week 5.

The Chargers are also the most popular spread pick in football pools so far this week and the most over-picked team (relative to their win odds), according to our Football Pick’em Picks data. A whopping 94% of the public is picking them to win outright. (So far this year, when there is at least a 30% difference between win odds and pick popularity in our data, the favorite is 1-3 straight up.)

Denver has significantly underperformed this year and is coming off an ugly Thursday Night Football performance against Indianapolis where it managed only nine points. The Broncos are 31st in points scored after five weeks, but they are a better (18th) in terms of yards gained. That makes for some positive regression potential for Denver.

Over the long term, NFL teams don’t score a touchdown on only 21% of their red-zone trips, as the Broncos have done so far this year. (For perspective, the NY Giants ranked last in that same stat during the 2021 season, and they scored a TD on 45% of red-zone trips.)

The Chargers eked out a win last week, but they are also dealing with some key injuries. So we’ll take the underdog Broncos coming off an embarrassing game, in a spot where they may be due for some good luck in the scoring department.

Carolina Panthers (at Los Angeles Rams)

Moneyline: +380
Point Spread: +10.5

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models. That doesn’t mean we think it has a good chance to win—just that the reward of a +380 payoff is worth the risk of making bets like these over the long term.

It’s still a long shot, but there are some factors that suggest this game has a higher variation in potential outcomes. That scenario can benefit bigger underdogs.

Primary among them is that the Panthers just fired head coach Matt Rhule five games into his third season after he amassed an 11-27 overall record. We took a look at how teams have performed in their first game with an interim coach, and here are the key takeaways:

  • The average final margin of victory differed from the closing point spread by 15.7 points, suggesting these games are more “unpredictable” than a typical NFL game.
  • Overall, since 2010, teams in their first game with an interim coach went 14-9 both against the spread and straight up.
  • If you had risked one unit per game betting on all 23 of those games, you would be up +14.0 units in profit.
  • Earlier firings and interim coaches have done even better, as five of the six interim coaches taking over by Week 6 covered the spread in their first game.

The betting market reacted to the coaching change, with the point spread moving from Rams -9 to Rams -11 in the aftermath of the firing and the news that Baker Mayfield was out with an injury. But Carolina’s passing offense has been bad with Mayfield under center, ranking 31st in net passing yards per attempt. Carolina’s offense could actually play a little better with Mayfield out.

Finally, the Rams aren’t a dominant favorite. We successfully picked against them in last week’s column, and some of that rationale still applies. Their offensive line is struggling, they’re having trouble running the ball, and QB Matt Stafford is getting hit and sacked at a high rate. So far on offense, their strategy has effectively been passing to WR Cooper Kupp or bust.

If the Panthers’ defensive front can exploit those struggles, an upset is at least plausible.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Cincinnati)

Moneyline: +113
Point Spread: +2.0

The Saints are a little undervalued right now on defense, just looking at their points allowed. They are about average in yards allowed per game, but they rank worse (25th) in points allowed at 25.6 per game.

Interestingly, the Saints’ third-down defense and red-zone defense have been strong. The culprit has been a handful of big plays, as half of the 12 touchdowns scored against New Orleans have been on plays of 40 yards or longer. That includes a couple of defensive scores, but also a big 69-yard run last week by Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III.

The Bengals are certainly capable of big plays with WR Ja’Marr Chase, but their offense has not been clicking so far. RB Joe Mixon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, yet Cincinnati continues to be run-heavy on early downs despite that inefficiency. WR Tee Higgins has battled injuries, and even though he was active last week on a limited snap count, he saw zero targets.

Saints QB Jameis Winston returned to practice on Wednesday after two weeks off, but the big variable here is the New Orleans wide receiver situation. Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol after hitting the back of his head on a touchdown catch Sunday. Veterans Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry missed the last game, but they could return this week.

If the Saints get good news regarding any of those receivers, they could be a live home dog in this matchup.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 11 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, four picks had negative CLV.

WeekPickOpponentWed MLClosing MLResult
1MinnesotaGreen Bay+105-130W, 23-7
1NY GiantsTennessee+210+200W, 21-20
1PittsburghCincinnati+232+266W, 23-20
2New OrleansTampa Bay+125+124L, 20-10
2NY JetsCleveland+215+220W, 31-30
2AtlantaLA Rams+400+372L, 31-27
3HoustonChicago+125+145L, 23-20
3CarolinaNew Orleans+135+115W, 22-14
3IndianapolisKansas City+228+190W, 20-17
4New York JetsPittsburgh+150+140W, 24-20
4WashingtonDallas+155+135L, 25-10
4SeattleDetroit+180+151W, 48-45
5WashingtonTennessee+115-110L, 21-17
5DallasLA Rams+180+198W, 22-10
5HoustonJacksonville+270+260W, 13-6

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 6 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 6 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a more curated list of betting picks that caught our attention, with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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