Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 7 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 7 upset picks as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on various data angles.

October 20, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

Here are three NFL Week 7 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

Cincinnati Bengals (at Baltimore Ravens)

Point Spread: +6.5

Moneyline: +235

The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens meet as the top two teams in the AFC North, and both are coming off their most impressive defensive performances of the season. The Ravens shut down the Chargers last week, while the Bengals had a 27-0 lead against the Lions late before allowing 11 garbage-time points.

The Bengals could be a live underdog this week for several reasons. The first is that they rank in the top five in both offensive passing yards per attempt and defensive passing yards per attempt allowed. The Ravens are also near the top in pass yards per attempt, but rank 21st in defensive yards per attempt. So it’s actually the Bengals that come into this one with the net passing advantage.

This is an emerging offense for Cincinnati in Joe Burrow’s second year. Rookie Ja’Marr Chase has already proven to be a star, and fellow WR Tee Higgins is working back from an early injury but is now healthy.

Further, this is the type of series where home field advantage appears to often get overvalued between outdoor division rivals.

In this specific series, Cincinnati has done well in Baltimore. Over the last 12 years, Cincinnati is 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog of 6 or more points in Baltimore, including two outright wins at greater than +300 money line odds.

Philadelphia Eagles (at Las Vegas Raiders)

Point Spread: +3.0

Moneyline: +135

The Las Vegas Raiders have been an up-and-down team, and are coming off an “up” performance at Denver, where they intercepted Teddy Bridgewater three times in their first game without Jon Gruden at head coach this year.

Last year, we wrote about teams coming off big interception performances. Teams that intercepted three or more passes were 46.4% ATS (sample size = 221 games) the next week from 2013-2019. Teams favored by five or fewer points that met that criteria were only 29-28-1 SU and 23-34-1 ATS.

Las Vegas had one interception coming into the game, so that turnover performance was an outlier and could provide value. Further, the Raiders are 8-for-8 so far this season on recovering their own fumbles, so their offensive turnover numbers could see regression as well.

The Raiders have been one of the surprises this year as their pass defense numbers have been good, with DE Maxx Crosby being a big reason why. But they rate as below average in stopping the run. The Chargers took advantage of this in the primetime game a few weeks ago, while the Eagles have a good running game augmented by QB Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability.

Washington Football Team (at Green Bay Packers)

Point Spread: +9.0

Moneyline: +323

Finally, we will take a larger underdog play for our final value upset pick. Washington rates as the highest value spread pick right now according to our ensemble forecast, and the Similar Games Model has 59.6% cover rate for the most similar matchups.

The Packers have rebounded from the opening loss, but that result still counts. Green Bay’s defense has been very good against the pass, but they are only 23rd in total yards on offense after six games. That’s just ahead of No. 24 Washington. So the Green Bay offense hasn’t been nearly efficient as last season.

The Washington defense has struggled, which is why the line is where it is. They’ve also been particularly vulnerable to the top offenses, giving up 499 to Kansas City and 481 to Buffalo. But those two offenses are near the top of the league in yards while Green Bay is not so far.

With a larger underdog like this, you are going to need them not to turn over the ball as much, and avoid the costly big plays. The recipe, though, is there with an offense laying a lot of points that has not been firing at the same level of efficiency as the top ones in the league this year.

Year-To-Date Results

Through four weeks, our highlighted upset picks are 5-7 both against the spread and on the moneyline. So far, all the teams that have covered have won. New England last week was an unfortunate non-cover (+3.5) in overtime, after the Patriots had the lead late in regulation.

Against the moneyline at time of publication, we are +1.8 units so far. Just as importantly, in assessing luck versus value, we have shown closing line value with the Wednesday picks against the final pre-game moneyline.

Here’s a summary of the picks so far:

Week	Pick	Wed ML	Closing ML	Line Value	RESULT
6	JAC	+157	+115	Yes	Won 23-20
6	NE	+165	+165	No	Lost 35-29 (OT)
6	DET	+155	+170	No	Lost 34-11
5	PHI	+157	+121	Yes	Won 21-18
5	NYJ	+145	+122	Yes	Lost 27-20
5	SF	+203	+200	Yes	Lost 17-10
4	SEA	+130	+123	Yes	Won 28-21
4	PIT	+251	+210	Yes	Lost 27-17
4	NYJ	+273	+211	Yes	Won 27-24 (OT)
3	CIN	+165	+125	Yes	Won 24-10
3	PHI	+165	+165	No	Lost 41-21
3	JAC	+290	+308	No	Lost 31-19

Based on the Wednesday lines, you would have needed a 35.7% win rate in these games to break even. Based on closing lines, you would have needed a higher 38.4% win rate. That’s a movement in the right direction.

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather potentially long losing streaks along the way, and you need to be especially careful about judging your handicapping process based on short-term results.

Week 7 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 7 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 6 Betting Recap