NFL Week 6 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2021)
Week 6 gave us some big favorite blowouts, lots of road wins, and betting underdogs coming up short in overtime.
October 19, 2021 - by Jason Lisk
The Arizona Cardinals went to 6-0 (Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)
Week 6 2021 Highlights
- The Cardinals played without head coach Kliff Kingsbury but still won at Cleveland, as the Browns made numerous mistakes.
- Home teams continued to falter in 2021, going 4-9 SU and 4-9 ATS in Week 6. They have yet to have a winning week straight up.
- Three of the four teams favored by more than six points covered the spread by double digits in Week 6, with only Tampa Bay failing to cover.
- Three games went to overtime in Week 6, and the betting underdog lost all three games. In two of them, the underdog ended up not covering because of the final regulation score to tie it, followed by a touchdown in overtime.
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Week 6 Betting Results
- Biggest upset: Tennessee over Buffalo (+6, +215 moneyline)
- Biggest ATS cover margin: Arizona over Cleveland (+26, won by 23 points as 3-point underdog)
- Most points above over/under line: Minnesota-Carolina (+16.5, 62 total points vs. O/U line of 45.5)
- Most points below over/under line: Houston-Indianapolis (-11, 34 total points vs. O/U line of 45) and Baltimore-Chargers (-11, 40 total points vs. O/U line of 51)
- Over/Unders: 5-7-2 Overs
- Home Teams: 4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS (Jacksonville-Miami neutral site)
- Favorites: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS
(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Season Betting Numbers
Here are the against-the-spread numbers so far this year in some key categories.
2021 Home/Road and Favorite/Under ATS Results
| CATEGORY | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 37 | 54 | 0 | 40.7% |
| Away | 54 | 37 | 0 | 59.3% |
| Favorite | 42 | 51 | 0 | 45.2% |
| Underdog | 51 | 42 | 0 | 54.8% |
| Overs | 42 | 50 | 2 | 45.7% |
| Unders | 50 | 42 | 2 | 54.3% |
Notables
- Road teams are 50-41 SU and 54-37 ATS through six weeks.
- Games with an over/under of 50 or higher have gone over 17 of 31 times, while all other games have gone over only 25 of 63 times (two pushes).
Here are links to the most up-to-date info for ATS and over/under records so far in 2021:
2021 Results by Closing Point Spread
2021 Results by Closing Over/Under Total
Week 6 Miscues
Events like interceptions, lost fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions often lead to a loss of expected points and/or great field position for an opponent.
These drive-ending miscues often represent nothing more than bad luck. Adjusting for their effects can improve your NFL handicapping, since luck tends to even out over the long term.
Highlights
- Teams with four or more drive-ending miscues went 3-5 ATS.
- Teams with no drive-ending miscues went 3-0 ATS.
- The Arizona Cardinals continued their run of fourth-down stops, as the Browns went 1-for-4 on fourth down and also had three turnovers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win, and they had their first game where their opponent made the mistakes. The Miami Dolphins had a turnover, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs.
- The New York Giants and Houston Texans were the two biggest underdogs of the week, and they had seven turnovers combined.
The full data below is sorted by total drive-ending miscues. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field-goal attempts.
Week 6 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts
| Team | TOs | FG X | TOD | Total | Opp | Margin | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -6 | L |
| NYG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 | L |
| HOU | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -4 | L |
| DEN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | L |
| LAC | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | L |
| DAL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | W |
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | W |
| KC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | W |
| MIA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | L |
| NE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| WAS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | L |
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | L |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| LAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| TEN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| LV | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| IND | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | W |
2021 Season Total Miscues
Jacksonville is tied for the NFL lead in turnovers, has the most missed field goals, and the most total drive-ending miscues. The Jaguars also have the fewest opponent drives ending in either a turnover, missed field goal, or turnover on downs (three). That’s actually impressive.
Kansas City is tied with the Jaguars for the most turnovers with 11. The Chiefs had only 16 turnovers all of last season.
2021 Season Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts Summary
| TEAM | TOS | FG X | TOD | TOTAL | OPP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 18 |
| BUF | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 10 |
| DAL | 7 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 7 |
| DEN | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
| LAC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| LAR | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 11 |
| CHI | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 3 |
| NO | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| TB | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| GB | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 5 |
| MIN | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| NE | 13 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 17 | 3 |
| SEA | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| BAL | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 2 |
| CAR | 10 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| CIN | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| HOU | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | -4 |
| NYG | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 11 | -5 |
| IND | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 2 |
| LV | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 1 |
| CLE | 7 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 7 | -9 |
| PIT | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 10 | -3 |
| ATL | 6 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 7 | -4 |
| PHI | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 10 | -4 |
| SF | 7 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 10 | -4 |
| TEN | 8 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | -4 |
| KC | 14 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | -7 |
| MIA | 9 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 9 | -8 |
| DET | 8 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 10 | -8 |
| WAS | 9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 9 | -6 |
| NYJ | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 6 | -9 |
| JAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 6 | -13 |