Three NFL Week 18 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 18 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

January 4, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 18 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 18 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 2-1 for +1.5 units
2023 Season: 17-34 for -7.3 units

We’ve noted our close-game bad luck this season, but for one week, at least, we avoided that by not picking any games that were close, and winning two of them.

• Carolina (+230) laid an egg at a Jacksonville team playing without their starting QB, as we got great line value compared to close, but still lost 26-0.
• New Orleans (+139) jumped to a 20-0 lead at Tampa Bay en route to a 23-13 win to stay alive in the NFC South.
• Green Bay (+113) dominated Minnesota in a game that put the Packers a win away from getting a playoff spot, winning 33-10 and outgaining the Vikings by 259 yards.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 18, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Week 18 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints)

Moneyline: +152
Point Spread: +3

This is a playable moneyline model pick and spread pick for Week 18.

We’ve hit on several picks in the NFC South between the Falcons/Saints/Bucs and will continue to take the points and play for maximum chaos in these matchups. And maximum chaos could involve Atlanta sweeping New Orleans to potentially get into the playoffs at 8-9.

Atlanta is coming off a four-turnover game at Chicago, and looking to bounce back. Some of the model factors in this one include New Orleans’ relatively poor recent rush defense, combined with Atlanta’s rushing attack (Atlanta ran for 228 yards against the Saints in the first meeting).

The Saints also have poor rushing numbers, and now RB Alvin Kamara’s status is up in the air after an ankle injury.

New York Giants (vs Philadelphia Eagles)

Moneyline: +190
Point Spread: +5

This is not a playable moneyline model pick for Week 18, but it is a play based on the likely scenarios that could impact motivation.

The Eagles have been struggling, and their loss to Arizona at home last week meant that Dallas moved into the driver’s seat when it comes to winning the NFC East. While the Eagles should begin this game with their starters, their motivation to keep their best personnel on the field could depend on how realistic it is that they can win the division.

If the Cowboys are leading by multiple scores in the second half, it would not be surprising for Philadelphia to pull key veterans out of the game and get ready for next week.

Add in that the Eagles are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over the last five games, failing to cover by an average of 13 points, and we are willing to take a chance on the Giants beating a discouraged Eagles team on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Moneyline: +190
Point Spread: +4.5

This is our top playable model pick for Week 18.

Carolina, we just cannot quit you. The Panthers let us down a week ago, but get the Bucs in a must-win spot for Tampa Bay. But all the pressure here is on Tampa Bay as the team in the “win-and-in” situation against an inferior foe.

Some of the model factors showing up in this one include Tampa Bay’s rushing offense and relative low rate of rushing first downs, combined with Carolina’s good rush defense efficiency numbers over the last seven games.

Carolina’s offense cratered last week, but their defense has been pretty solid over the last month, and teams are only averaging 173 pass yards a game against them over the last seven games.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

Our upset picks are 9-23 in games decided by one score this season, while going 8-11 in games that had larger margins of victory/defeat. Because of the close losses, this happens to be a year where the against-the-spread results for our upset picks have been better than moneyline results. The picks this year are 26-22-3 ATS against closing point spreads, but only 17-34 SU.

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes
13	PHI	SF	125	134	L 42-19	No
13	CAR	TB	200	167	L 21-18	Yes
13	ARI	PIT	220	235	W 24-10	No
14	CHI	DET	150	140	W 28-13	Yes
14	LAR	BAL	270	280	L 37-31	No
14	DEN	LAC	125	143	W 24-7	No
15	WAS	LAR	246	255	L 28-20	No
15	CHI	CLE	154	129	L 20-17	Yes
15	NYG	NO	219	222	L 24-6	No
16	CAR	GB	194	165	L 33-30	Yes
16	TEN	SEA	127	135	L 20-17	No
16	WAS	NYJ	146	141	L 30-28	Yes
17	NO	TB	139	127	W 23-13	Yes
17	CAR	JAC	230	167	L 26-0	Yes
17	GB	MIN	113	-110	W 33-10	Yes

NFL Week 18 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 18 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 18 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.