Three NFL Week 3 Upset Picks To Consider (2021)

These NFL Week 3 upset picks stand out as potential value plays on the point spread or moneyline, based on our models and/or data angles.

Week 3 Upset Picks

The Jaguars are gonna be popular in Circa (David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an underdog—especially when you bet on them and they win.

With that in mind, here are three NFL Week 3 upset picks that have piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

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Jacksonville (vs. Arizona)

Point Spread: +7.5

Moneyline: +290

It feels like everyone is mocking Jacksonville after their 0-2 start. However, the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-five turnover differential, and turnover luck can change quickly.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are off to a 2-0 start and becoming a public favorite. As of Wednesday, a sky-high 79% of the public was taking them to cover the spread in this game. In a rational world, that number should be a lot closer to 50%.

There have been four games this season where pick’em pool players picked one side at least 75% of the time. Those teams are 0-4 ATS so far (all were favorites). There were two outright upsets, and the other two games came down to the wire before the favorite won but failed to cover.

Going back to 2011, there have been 25 games where an 0-2 team was an underdog of six points or more. Those 0-2 big underdogs have gone 7-18 straight up (28%) and 15-10 ATS (60.0%) in Week 3, offering value on both the spread and moneyline as a group.

Philadelphia (at Dallas)

Point Spread: +4

Moneyline: +165

The NFC East tends not to have much home-field advantage in division-rivalry games. That includes the Eagles-Cowboys series.

The home team in this series is 19-20 straight up going back to 2002, when the current four-team division format began.

The Cowboys are in the public’s good graces after a promising primetime showing at Tampa Bay and a close win at the Chargers. They’re drawing about 70% of the public’s ATS picks in pick’em pools this week. However, Philadelphia has quietly had a solid start to the season.

The Eagles rank third in net yards per pass attempt allowed, and they have allowed only one touchdown pass and 23 total points in two games against Atlanta and San Francisco.

As of Wednesday, all three of our core ATS prediction models (Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Power Ratings) also gave Philadelphia the edge to cover a four-point spread.

Cincinnati (at Pittsburgh)

Point Spread: +3.5

Moneyline: +165

The Pittsburgh Steelers have mostly dominated the Bengals over the last two decades. But in this division series, the Bengals have won more games in Pittsburgh (six) than in Cincinnati (three) since 2002.

Some notable defensive absences cost the Steelers against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. However, star LB T.J. Watt and CB Joe Haden practiced on a limited basis Wednesday.

If the defense isn’t at 100 percent, the Steelers are a vulnerable favorite because their offense is still struggling. They’re 28th in total yards, 24th in points scored and 29th in first downs.

The Steelers have managed to avoid turnovers, with only one interception and zero fumbles lost. However, QB Ben Roethlisberger now has a pectoral injury, which may hamper his effectiveness.

Turnovers hurt Cincinnati last week, as QB Joe Burrow threw three interceptions and WR Tee Higgins lost a fumble in a three-point loss at Chicago. If turnover luck swings, it would be another factor in the Bengals’ favor.

Finally, our two most sophisticated models like the Bengals to cover +3.5.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand what that means. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of the three teams above a 50-50 chance or better to win its game.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 underdog moneyline bets. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 3 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

If you’d like to see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 3 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Carolina vs. Houston 

Related: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap