Staff Picks History

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trends and lineup analysis.
• We will largely just copy and update the notes from our previous Clemson pick in the Sweet 16:
• Clemson is better than their raw rating with the current lineup fully healthy. Specifically, in games with Jack Clark healthy and in the starting lineup with the other four starters, Clemson averaged a Game Score of +18.9 (16 games) versus +11.1 (19 games) in all others. 
• Clemson is 11-5 ATS with Clark as a starter and 9-9-1 when he is not.
• Alabama plays at a fast pace and gets on the offensive boards at a high rate, but Clemson has performed well against the fastest-paced offenses they have faced, who also have high Offensive Rebound rates, beating TCU outright in December as a dog, already beating Alabama outright in November as a road dog, beating New Mexico by over 20 as a dog in the first round, and beating Arizona by 5 as a 7-point dog in the last game..

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Elite Eight" tab, and then "Marquette to Make 2024 Tournament Elite Eight" - YES.
• Our projected odds for Marquette is 36.3% to make the Elite Eight, while the break-even for the +205 line is 32.8%.
• We think there is some variance upside here with Marquette, where the market is reduced on Marquette because of recent injuries, but if they can get through the first weekend, this team has the potential to be one of the top teams in the tournament. Based on our lineup review, this team is +19.0 when all five starters play, +14.8 when one is out and +7.0 (1 game) when two starters are out.
• We also think Tyler Kolek is ready to play after taking 2.5 weeks off with the oblique injury, as reports today were that he was looking like himself in practice.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend and matchup analysis.
• Our review of lineups and adjustments has this line closer than the 3.5 spread (about 1.7 point difference) with a big factor being excluding some games where Creighton did not have all starters healthy.
• In addition, this looks like the type of matchup that has given Tennessee relative problems. Tennessee's results show a strong relationship to the quality of the opponent defense, and they have performed worse relative to expectations against better defenses.
• Against top 30 defenses in Ken Pom (Creighton is 23rd), Tennessee is only 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS. They are also 3-4 ATS against 31-75 ranked defenses, compared to 13-6-1 ATS against all others.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Houston to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for Houston is 69.5% to make and 30.5% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +320 line is 24.4%.
• We believe there is some edge in this based on the recent quality of both Nebraska and Texas A&M, one of whom will be the second round opponent. Both teams are better than their overall season power rating based on the current lineups.
• Houston also has an X-factor forward J'Wan Roberts being limited in the Big 12 tournament by a knee bone bruise, something that could impact his performance. The team is also thin at the forward position after injuries to the bench, so Roberts not being 100% increases the risk of an upset.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Alabama to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for Alabama is 42.9% to make and 57.1% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the -115 line is 53.5%.
• We have been fading Alabama recently because of their poor defensive performance over the last month. They have been injury-impacted with Latrell Wrightsell and Rylan Griffen missing games down the stretch, but it's not promising that they will turn it around to respectable defense.
• Since 2011, there have been 18 teams who were top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and were inside the top 20 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense rankings, and outside the top 70 in adjusted defense. Of those 18, 33% lost in Round 1, including several notable big upsets, and only 39% reached the Sweet 16.
• Alabama finished 3rd in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency but 113th in defensive efficiency, and finished that poorly despite opponents hitting only 32% from three on the year.

Staff notes:

• This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "North Carolina to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
• Our projected odds for North Carolina is 59.2% to make and 40.8% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +164 line is 37.9%.
• We like this prop based on the quality of the second round draw, where either Michigan State or Mississippi State rank as tougher than average teams out of the No. 8/9 area.
• North Carolina is also a below average No. 1 seed by overall strength. They rank 8th in our tournament rankings (and 9th at KenPom). No. 1 seeds who have been power rated outside the top 4 in our rankings entering the tournament have only averaged 2.2 wins going back to 2010, compared to 3.4 for all other No. 1 seeds.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model pick for Sunday.
• Some of the model factors include Colorado's low 3-point rate, and Marquette is 10-4-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in three-point rate (compared to 11-9 ATS all others).
• Colorado also rates poorly in turnovers on offense, while Marquette is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. We see a big advantage there as Colorado is 0-4 ATS this year against teams inside the top 50 in defensive turnover rate, and Marquette is 10-5 ATS against teams outside the top 150 in turnover rate.
• This Marquette team also got Tyler Kolek back healthy, and after a slow first half, they turned it on as a team in the second half against Western Kentucky, and look to be back at full strength.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on roster trends.
• Oregon put up a third straight dominant performance against a high-level tournament team, now beating Arizona, Colorado, and South Carolina, the first two who are still playing this weekend.
• Oregon has faced a lot of injuries this year, and this recent run started a few games earlier when they shifted their distribution on offense, concentrating usage on their three best players, N'Faly Dante, Jermaine Couisnard, and Jackson Shelstad. Those three combined for 74 of the 87 (with Couisnard going for 40) in the win over South Carolina.
• It presents a strength on strength here, as Creighton also plays a shorter bench, and we have a great big man matchup here between Dante and Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton. Since the start of March, Dante has made 58-of-69 shots and has averaged 19.8 points a game over this run.

Staff notes:

• This is our top model pick for Friday in the NCAA Tournament, and also a pick based on lineup trends.
• Wisconsin had a down stretch in Big Ten conference play, after a really strong start. And then they closed strong, including the OT win over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
• That conference stretch corresponded with backup PG Kamari McGee missing 11 straight games, and also some extreme opponent three point rate performance. 
• Wisconsin's depth at point guard after McGee is thin, as Chucky Hepburn had to play more minutes, and Max Klesmit would have to fill that role if Hepburn needed a break while McGee was out.
• Since McGee's return and the Badgers having a full rotation, they have averaged a Game Score of +21.2 (elite top seed level) while finishing 5-1 ATS.
• Wisconsin finished 14th in opponent 3-point FG% against in Big Ten play (out of 14) and as a result ranks near the bottom of Division 1 at 37% allowed. 
• James Madison is at the other extreme, 2nd in 3 point % against (29%), and that started in their OT win over Michigan State in the first game, where the Spartans went a dreadful 1-for-20 from deep. 

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on a roster trend analysis and matchup review.
• Alabama has been struggling on defense, all year, but particularly down the stretch, going 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS over their final 10, with the last 5 non-covers coming by double digits vs the spread.
• If you look at their defensive performances, their three worst have all come since the last week of February. The only two (out of the last 10 games) that were better than their season average, just barely, were in games their opponents shot 17% and 20% from three. So unless Charleston has really bad shooting luck from outside, they have a really good chance to light up this Alabama defense.
• Charleston is also playing better than their raw season numbers, after a slow start at 1-3. They've won 12 in row. Three of their best five offensive performances for the year have come since February 29th.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, and a play based on recent lineup and roster trends and other factors.
• This particular line is off some other movement, where Drake has moved to a slight favorite at other books this morning, you can also play it at -1, but we are listing this one in case you can still grab at FanDuel.
• Drake is better than their full season number. If we isolate the games by lineup similarity to their recent usage in the MVC Tournament, and exclude the eight most dissimilar games (due to player injuries and minute distribution) their average rises to +11.7, two points better than the season average.
• Washington State was playing well in most of Pac-12 play, up until their big upset of Arizona in Tucson. Since that result, though, they closed 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, and their average Game Score was +8.9, nearly four points below the season average.
• There's a lineup-related reason, as they suddenly started playing their two posts far less and playing a smaller lineup. The combo of Oscar Cluff and Rueben Chinyelu have averaged only 27 minutes in that run, compared to a combined 39 minutes in the previous 6. We cannot find an injury-related reason for the shift, but it has maintained through Pac-12 play. The biggest issue in the decline is also defense, particularly opponent shooting on two-point attempts.
• As an additional factor, we also like that this game is played in Omaha, a short two-hour drive across I-80, while Washington State is traveling from the Pacific Time Zone.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model pick for Thursday's First Round, and it's also a play based on trend analysis.
• Illinois is a top 10 offensive team but their defensive numbers are very poor for a top at-large, and they rank near the bottom of D1 in turnovers forced.
• Recent high seeds with that profile have underachieved. 2021 2 seed Ohio State losing to Oral Roberts is a prominent example, but it also includes 2021 2 seed Iowa not covering in first round, then getting blown out by Oregon, 2018 4 seeds Arizona and Wichita State losing outrgiht to Buffalo and Marshall respectively.

Staff notes:

• This is a model lean, and a pick based on roster trends.
• One word: Obaseki. Okay, more than one, but after a terrible stretch through SEC play where they really struggled on defense, Buzz Williams went to a true-3 guard offense, inserting Manny Obaseki to play as a starter with Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor. 
• The results have been huge, a Game Score over +22, scoring over 80 points a game, and the three combining for 75 in the win over Kentucky yesterday. Obaseki (40% from three) has brought an element this team was lacking, as they were really struggling on offense playing a bigger player at the 3 with Radford and Taylor all year, who was a worse shooter.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
• Virginia has really struggled on offense down the stretch, with four really poor performances on offense in the last 7 games. The average Game Score has only been +3.6 over that span, after being over +11 in all games prior.
• Boston College is coming off a 21-point win over Clemson in the previous round. Three of BC's best four Game Scores have come in the last four contests. While some of that has been driven by poor opponent 3-point rates, they have also dominated on the offensive glass for four straight games, and limited opponents to under 48% on two-point shots in all four, after doing that only three times in ACC play up until that point.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
• Stanford is better with the current lineup playing. In the 13 games with the current lineup (which starts with freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle taking over, and excludes the three games missed by Spencer Jones), the Cardinal have a +7.8 rating versus +4.6 in all other games.
• Washington State has had a great season, and has been better overall since Jaylen Wells became a starter. However, they closed poorly after the Arizona upset win at Tucson, and it has largely been because of defense. The last four opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% or better (and it is not driven by extreme outside shooting splits), after holding 8 of the 9 previous opponents under 50% effective FG%.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and matchups.
• Our raw power rating difference (7.8) is very similar to the game line but we have reason to believe that there is value on Kansas State when digging in.
• Iowa State's rating is a bit inflated by their performance against cupcakes. Against the weakest 8 opponents in the non-conference, they had an average Game Score of +27.0 vs. +16.8 in all other games.
• Iowa State was substantially better at home than road/neutral situations this year, Iowa State's average home Game Score was +23.8 and road/neutral was +13.8 (average venue expectation should be adjusted for in the Game Score, so these are extreme splits after already accounting for that).
• Since K-State went to starting lineup switch to go with more guards, starting Dai Dai Ames and bringing David N'Guessan off the bench, their average rating is +12.4 over 11 games, versus +8.8 for all previous games.

Staff notes:

• This is a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
• Arkansas has played much better recently after a year full of lineup turnover and inconsistency and injuries.
• In the most similar games to their recent rotation usage, they are +3 points better than the full season average.
• In the last 7 games with the current lineup, they are 6-1 ATS and a +15.6 Game Score average, similar to their preseason expectation.
• The only bad performance they have had during that stretch was against Vanderbilt, in what was Vandy's single best Game Score result of the season. Trevon Brazile for Arkansas fouled out after only 17 minutes of playing in that game, and Arkansas had to use different post rotations due to foul trouble.

Staff notes:

• Gonzaga has been playing much better since Ben Gregg was inserted in the lineup for Dusty Stromer, putting up a 20.0 Game Score (for perspective, a typical No. 1 seed will be around there or just above it for the season) in 8 of the last 14 games.
• Saint Mary's is injury-impacted, losing the Josh Jefferson for the season on February 10th. 
• For the same reasons we had Gonzaga as a Staff Pick to win at St. Mary's as an underdog in the season finale, we like Gonzaga here, and our estimates are 63% to win the WCC tournament.

Staff notes:

• This is a play based on our lineup trend analysis.
• Milwaukee is better than their full season power rating (and the spread is in line with our full season rating for both teams), because of numerous injuries and lineup changes and the current lineup being an improvement over their previous performance.
• The team's best player and point guard BJ Freeman missed 8 games and didn't start in 5 others while working back from injury, and the team is better when he is fully healthy.
• Milwaukee also replaced several inefficient shooters with better offensive players, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and the current lineup is much better at surrounding Freeman with guys that can hit shots. 
• As a result, we would put this at closer to Milwaukee +1.5 and see it as a playable opportunity on current form due to current lineup improvement.

Staff notes:

• Our projections in the American are 49% for Florida Atlantic versus 30% for Memphis to win the conference. 
• We have Florida Atlantic power-rated as the better team, while Memphis is ranked higher in the human polls, and is the betting market favorite slightly over FAU, so we like getting plus odds here on FAU.
• You can also read Ken Pomeroy's blog post on Memphis' ranking here, as further support on why we think we are getting a little value here based on public overrating Memphis.

Staff notes:

• Our projections give NC Central a 42% chance of winning the MEAC regular season title.
• Our review of the "With or Without You" scores for NC Central also shows some potential value on them being better than their overall rating. They had multiple games without key players, including starting point guard Fred Cleveland. But in games where the guard trio of Cleveland, Po'Boigh King, and Ja'Darius Harris all start and play significant minutes (including the most recent 6 games), their rating is +0.2, versus -7.1 in the other games, and -3.3 rating across all games.
• They also have a win in hand against conference co-favorite Norfolk State, who they just beat on January 8th.

Staff notes:

• The current projection for Alabama is a 40% to win the SEC regular season title, after starting conference play 4-0.
• Alabama is one of three SEC teams ranked inside our top 7 in the predictive power ratings, and is also rated No. 7 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
• This FanDuel line is off-market from some other books, where Alabama is +180 to win at Caesars and +210 at DraftKings.
• The SEC is a tough conference, and there's plenty of competition with Auburn and Tennessee at the top, but we would play this down to +235 (30% break-even odds)

Staff notes:

• Our automated projections have USC at 23.6% to win the Pac-12, making them the second-favorite behind Arizona.
• USC won their season opener last night in impressive fashion over Kansas State, 82-69, in a game where they went on an early 14-2 run and led by double digits throughout, holding Kansas State to 37% effective field goal percentage. 
• Freshman point guard Isaiah Collier, one of the top recruits in the nation, had an impressive debut, scoring 15 points in the first half, and backed up some of the hype about this incoming freshman class for USC. 
• USC now is inside our top 10 in power rating, and we see the Pac-12 as a two-horse race between USC and Arizona, with UCLA expected to take a step back with so many key losses, and see relative value on USC here, if the depth, size, and Collier at point guard all come together.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model pick for Friday, and also a play based on lineup analysis.
• Ball State's average Game Score has been much better once we account for the earlier games Davion Bailey missed, and Ball State just put up a strong performance to get a win in the last game despite being without leading scorer Bashir Jihad, who missed with back tightness after a fall in the previous game. Ball State is now playing to earn a spot into the MAC Tournament in this game and it's a de facto playoff game for them.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a play based on our lineup analysis.
• Belmont has been playing at a substantially higher level over the last 9 games (they were also a successful staff pick last Sunday, and are 8-1 ATS after yesterday's game, covering over half by double digits).
• That change corresponds with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie returning from a month-long injury to start conference play, and joining a new starting lineup rotation, that has only been in use for these four games.
• Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been stellar during this run, and we are willing to bet on the chemistry and improvement of this current lineup not being reflected fully in the line. Belmont is averaging a Game Score of +11.5 (at-large tournament quality) in the last 9 games versus -1.1 for the previous 23 with different lineups and with Gillespie's injury.
• We list this as a moneyline play here, but it is playable at the more common -1 (-110) spread available at other books.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday. You can also play this at the more common 132.5 Over -110 available at other books.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, and this number is getting a 0.5 point of value versus our consensus line.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on our With Or Without You analysis and lineup trends.
• Florida Gulf Coast hosts Queens in the 7 vs. 8 game in the first round of the Atlantic Sun tonight.
• FGCU's current lineup has been used for the last 12 games (other than senior night, when two quickly came off the bench), and over that span they are 9-3 ATS and -0.2 Game Score, compared to -8.0 Game Score average for the first 19 games.
• Isaiah Thompson and Cyrus Largie had both missed games in the middle of the season, when the team struggled, and they are better with the current lineup, while the current spread is in line with the full season rating.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
• In addition, we like this play based on recent form and news.
• Xavier coach Sean Miller has been rumored as a candidate to move to Ohio State after the Buckeyes fired Chris Holtmann on Feb. 14th. Xavier has played poorly in the last three games, and over the last 10 games, Xavier has an average power rating of only +5.7, compared to +13.4 in the first 17 games.
• DePaul has been slightly better (by about 3 points on average) in games that point guard Chico Carter has played, though he has gone 0-10 from three-point range in the last three games since returning from a rib injury that caused him to miss 7 straight Big East games.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
• Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-5 ATS (54.1%). Road favorites rated above 55.0%, like Utah State, have gone 19-10 ATS this year.
• Fresno State is very thin, having lost two starters for the season in the last three weeks, and center Enoch Boakye has also missed the last two games and his status is unknown. If Boakye misses the game, Fresno State will have be playing walk-ons off the bench, and have no one taller than 6'7" playing.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• So far this year, playable picks on home underdogs are 20-12-1 ATS.
• Houston is 1-5 ATS in Big 12 conference games in their first year in the conference, and have shown a strong performance split on opponent quality, playing 7.2 points worse after adjusting for expectations, when playing the top 16 toughest games on the schedule versus the 10 easiest opponents.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Tuesday.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our highest-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Miami is not a deep team and has dealt with a lot of missed games among the starters with injury.
• The current starting lineup of Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Matthew Cleveland, KyShawn George and Norchad Omier have had only three games all year where all were in the starting lineup.
• Freshman KyShawn George just missed all of one game and most of the other with injury, but returned to the lineup in the last game.
• In the 10 games where George starts and plays at least 20 minutes, Miami's power rating is +14.1, compared to +7.4 in all other games, so there could be some value in Miami's lineup being better than their full season numbers.
• Miami opponents have made 40% of threes (49-of-123) over the last five games, much higher than the full season rate of 31%, and provides another area of positive regression potential for Miami.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Wednesday.
• Penn State's leading scorer, Kanye Clary, missed a couple of games with a facial injury, and Penn State actually surged to two of their best performances. Veteran point guard Ace Baldwin (transfer from VCU) took over the full point guard duties and has had 29 assists in the last two games, and Clary came off the bench in the last two.
• Penn State is 4-0 ATS the spread with the current lineup and has put up their two best Game Scores all year.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Tuesday)

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Staff notes:

• This is similar to a prop we posted in our picks article, but without the H2H component with Patrick Mahomes. 
• Purdy's rushing splits are heavily dependent on game script. When the 49ers are blowing teams out, he does not run. When it is a closer game, he does.
• In the nine games the 49ers won by 14 or more points, Purdy ran only 15 total times for 33 yards.
• In the nine games the 49ers lost, or won by less than 14 points, Purdy ran 35 times for 173 yards.
• In this game with a 2-point spread, against a Chiefs team that rarely loses big with Mahomes at QB, we'll play on Purdy continuing his recent form on the ground (11 carries for 62 yards in the playoffs).

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "TD props" tab and the "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" link.
• Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. When it turns to the postseason, the Chiefs turn to their best weapon in the red zone.
• Our projections show slight value here at the +100 line available at FanDuel, with a 52.3% chance of scoring in this game.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Super Bowl MVP" tab and then scroll down past the individual player bets. 
• A couple of years ago, we took a look at Super Bowl MVPs. One of the interesting things was the correlation between the Over/Under for the game and whether a QB won MVP. 
• While 83% of SB MVPs have been quarterbacks when the pre-game Over/Under is 52.0 or higher, 60% of MVPs have been QBs when it is between 48.0 and 51.5 points, and 50% have been QBs when it has been 44.0 to 47.5 points.
• Right now, the most common Over/Under is 47.5 points, and it has been hovering in that range all week.
• So we think we are getting a little value at the +200 line on a non-QB winning, given the expected total and the amount of defensive and skill player talent that could garner the award in this game.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Receiving Props" tab and "Total Number of Kansas City Chiefs to Have a Reception."
• For the full season, Kansas City has had at least 8 players record a reception in 15 of 19 games started by Patrick Mahomes. Why then, do we like the Under here?
• It's taken most of the season, but Kansas City has started to consolidate the passing targets on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Isiah Pacheco has carried the backfield. Over the last four games with Mahomes starting, including the playoff matchups, the Under on this number would have hit three times. The one time it did not, six different players had exactly one catch, with three of those catching their only target of the game.
• The offense has been better with more of the offense going through the Kelce and Rice combo, and we expect that trend to continue.
• It also looks more likely that RB Jerick McKinnon (who was designated to return from IR) will not play, and WR Kadarius Toney will not be activate for the game. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
• This particular prop is located under the "Player Props" tab and the George Kittle Props section.
• Our projection for Kittle is 59.2 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
• Kittle typically becomes a bigger part of the game plan in games where the matchup is expected to be closer, and he shows up more prominently in big games.
• Over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 65.0 receiving yards in games where the pre-game spread was 7 points or lower, and only 43.2 yards in the games with larger spreads.
• The strength of the Chiefs' secondary is also the two starting cornerbacks, and Kansas City's relative weakness at rush defense could also open up big play opportunities down the middle of the field, and matched up on linebackers and safeties, an area that Kittle excels.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
• Houston Christian opponents have shot 62% from two-point range over the last three games, 

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• A few years ago, we published a look at MVP winners and performance in various team and stat categories. That was part of our analysis in identifying Patrick Mahomes as a value last year when he was not the betting market favorite.
• The key categories, in order, are: team wins rank, total TDs (passing/rushing), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank, Passer Rating Rank, Team Points Scored Rank, and Pass TD Rate Rank. The MVP winners at QB ranked on average at 3rd or better across those categories.
• Dak Prescott actually ranks the highest, right now, across all these categories, well ahead of market favorite Jalen Hurts. Hurts ranks well below past winners in pass efficiency stats, and Prescott is the only QB who currently ranks top five in all of the most predictive MVP categories.
• BetMGM (+800) is the best relative price, compared to FanDuel (+700) and DraftKings (+600) though we think the market is a little mispriced here.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Staff notes:

• Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
• The -130 line is slightly better than our consensus from global books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -138.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is a top-rated college basketball O/U model play for today.
• The FanDuel line of 142.5 is providing a point of value compared to the consensus line across books, but our play is rated at 141.5, so if that is all you have available, you can play that number.

Staff notes:

• This is a top-rated spread and moneyline pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Our top-rated moneyline picks are +16.1 units (45 games) so far this season.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, at the consensus line of 141.0. The 141.5 with -115 payout odds it roughly the same as 141.0 with -110 odds, which is also available at several books.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday, at the consensus line of 136.0. Caesars is offering the best line available, but can play to 136.5.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the AFC Championship, rated at 54.5% at 44.5 points. 
• You can play this elsewhere at 44.5, but you can currently get at DraftKings at 44.0 -115, and we think that's the slightly better play, considering that 44 points is one of the most common scores hit and can get you a push, as 3.8% of games from 2017-2021 ended on that total. 
• Some of the Over model factors include Kansas City's low sack rate on offense, Kansas City's low turnover rate forced on defense in recent games plus Baltimore's low interception rate, and Baltimore's high rush rate and rush yards per game.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (54%) at -4, and you can currently get -3.5 at some books.
• Some model factors include Baltimore's defensive numbers, high rushing yards per game and Kansas City's low rate of rushing first downs. 

Staff notes:

• This is a highly-rated moneyline play for Saturday.
• Over the last three seasons, our highest-rated moneyline plays have gone 73-58 SU for +27.8 units. 

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
• Our roster analysis also shows that Manhattan finally ended a five-game non-cover streak (and not covering 7 of 8), but that the starting lineup they used in last game finally played together for first time, after a stretch where multiple starters missed games and the team has dealt with lots of inconsistency.
• Meanwhile, Canisius has failed to cover seven straight now, and has lost each of the last three, performing far worse than their season averages. Starter Siem Uijtendaal missed the last two games and his status is uncertain for tonight.

Staff notes:

• This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and matchup analysis.
• Last week, we had a similar Staff Pick on the Rams against the Lions, The primary rationale was the poor performance of teams with poor passing defense numbers and similer teams to Detroit in the playoffs. Those concerns played out, but the Lions still won as the Rams failed to convert yards to points, settled for field goals, and made suboptimal coaching decisions, while outgaining the Lions by nearly 100 yards.
• Detroit just allowed 357 passing yards and a 119.8 passer rating to Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card Round win, and that's the highest passer rating ever allowed by a team that advanced in the playoffs.
• The five other teams who allowed the highest passer rating, and won, in the Wild Card Round went 0-5 both SU and ATS in the next game, losing by an average of 26 points in the Divisional Round.
• Those pass defense numbers in the Wild Card Round were bad, but Detroit was near the bottom of the NFL in the regular season, ranking 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in TD passes allowed, and 27th in passing yards allowed in the regular season. So we will grab the points against a team with a very susceptible pass defense, when teams fitting that profile have generally failed to cover in the postseason.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Staff notes:

• ****NOTE: this was mistakenly posted as an Over instead of Under, per our models****
• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
• Mississippi State recently got center Tolu Smith back from an offseason foot injury, and beat Tennessee mid-week in his first start of the season, which is why our power ratings would show Alabama as the favorite in this game (since most of the game results were without Smith).

Staff notes:

• This is not a model spread pick, but is a Staff Pick based on team analysis and trends.
• The Cleveland Browns have started five (!!) different QBs this year, but have been playing better on offense with veteran Joe Flacco in his five starts. He's averaged 7.9 yards per pass (the other 4 averaged 6.4) and thrown 13 TD passes (11 combined for the others).
• Teams with a QB who didn't start all year have provided playoff value in recent years. Since 2010, when the starting QB in a playoff matchup did not start in at least 4 of that team's games in the regular season, that team is 25-14-3 ATS.
• The Texans' pass defense is a weak link, as they rank poorly in net yards per pass allowed (6.5 yards per pass), second-worst only to Detroit among playoff teams. Home teams in the Wild Card Round who have given up 6.5 net yards per pass or worse in the regular season are 3-9 SU and ATS since 2010.
• C.J. Stroud has been a part of a wonderful revival in Houston as the second overall pick, but rookie QBs have a poor track record in their first start, and he's going against the team that ranks #1 in passing yards allowed. 
• Going all the way back to 1978, teams with a 1st and 2nd round rookies making their playoff debut (so we are excluding the backups forced into starts) have gone 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in the first game, underperforming the spread by an average of 6.3 points. All five top rookies to make the playoffs since 2011 have lost and failed to cover in their first playoff start.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
• This line of 135.5 is a half point higher at Caesars than at most other books. We think it's playable at 135 as well.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Staff notes:

• Our fantasy projection for Courtland Sutton is 637 yards, nearly 90 yards of under value.
• Sutton is currently WR47 in the Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, but his yardage total at Caesars is 125 more yards than Rashod Bateman and 200 more than Elijah Moore, the two receivers closest to him in the rankings.
• Nine of Sutton's 12 most similar player comps by age, recent production and market ranking went under 725 receiving yards, several going well under, and 6 of the 7 most similar went under.
• Sutton may not feel that old, but he turns 28 this season, and has not been as explosive or productive since an ACL tear in 2020, playing in 32 of a possible 34 games over the last two years but only averaging about 50 receiving yards a game as a clear starter.
• Sutton faces increased target competition, as Jerry Jeudy has emerged as the far more likely top receiver in Denver, the team drafted Marvin Mims and Tim Patrick returns from missing all of last year, Denver added a high-volume receiving back in Samaje Perine, and tight end Greg Dulcich is a potential second-year breakout candidate.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Russell Wilson is 20.8 touchdown passes in 2023, over three touchdown passes worth of value.
• Last year, Wilson threw only 16 TD passes (a career-low) in 15 starts. While there is some optimism about Wilson with the Broncos hiring head coach Sean Payton, we still see under value here.
• Our projections are based on team projections tied to win totals and recent stats, as well as for QBs, some player similarity performances based on age.
• Since 2010, there have been 14 QBs who were in their 30's and dropped to fewer than 1.3 TD passes per game in a season. Only three of the 14 managed at least 22 TD passes the next year (giving some leeway because of the extra 17th game compared to a lot of those players). 
• While we think Wilson could bounce back under Payton, this number is still high for a veteran who showed signs of decline the last two years and will be 35 this season.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Allen is 76 receptions, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
• Allen is 31 years old this season, and is coming off a year when he managed only 10 games played with hamstring injuries.
• The team drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round, introducing more target competition to the offense.
• Allen's comparables, which consist of similarly-aged players who were being drafted around WR18, had only one that finished with at least 86 catches (out of the top 12) and three others that were at 80 receptions (in a 16-game season) and the median catch total was 72 for the group.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Daniel Jones is 3,603 passing yards in 2023.
• Daniel Jones passed for a career-low 200 yards per game in 2022 (while throwing for just over 3,200 yards) as the New York Giants' receiving group was decimated. That forced him to become even more of a runner, as he ran for over 700 yards last season.
• We see several positive regression signs for the passing game volume, as the team acquired TE Darren Waller, drafted Jalin Hyatt, and acquired Parris Campbell, to go with the return of second-year player Wan'Dale Robinson (only 6 games played as a rookie). 
• While no one will confuse that with an elite receiving corps, it's a massive potential upgrade and one that should allow Jones to return to a more normal passing distribution.

Staff notes:

• This prop can be found in the NFL section under "Team Futures" and then the "Winning Record" tab.
• The break-even percentage for this prop is 34.5% chance, and our projections give the Giants a 40.4% chance of 9 or more wins in 2023.
• The market is expecting some regression from the Giants after they made the playoffs last year at 9-7-1 in head coach Brian Daboll's first year.
• We like the value on this prop because the Giants should be better in the passing offense this season. Last year, they did it with smoke and mirrors on offense at receiver and tight end.
• This year, the team has added TE Darren Waller, WR Parris Campbell, drafted WR Jalin Hyatt, and had WR Wan'Dale Robinson only play 6 games because of injury. The team's leading receiver last season, Darius Slayton, is still on the roster but is 4th on the depth chart.
• Brian Daboll has shown himself to be a good offensive coach, manufacturing offense a year ago without any WR depth, and this is a play on him expanding the offense with all the additions.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Etienne is 868 rushing yards in 2023.
• Last year, the Jaguars got rid of James Robinson after Week 6, and over the final 12 weeks, other than a week where he left the game early with an injury against Baltimore, Etienne got a really high workload. He accounted for over 80% of the team's running back rushes in games he played more than one quarter. 
• The Jaguars had a lack of depth at running back a year ago, but drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round. Early reports are that Bigsby has looked really good at mini-camp.
• So we project that while Etienne will still be the top option, the team will be more willing to give Bigsby carries to keep him fresh. 
• Etienne also played every game a year ago, and averaged 5.1 yards per rush, so this Under can also hit with either worse health luck, and regression in yards per carry, in addition to reduced workload.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Raheem Mostert is 404 rushing yards.
• We also think there is value here based on the potential for the Dolphins signing Dalvin Cook, who was released by the Vikings.
• Mostert missed nearly all of the 2021 season, before bouncing back with nearly 900 yards last season as the lead back for Miami.
• However, he is now 31 years old, and the team spent an early pick on Devone Achane, is rumored to be in the mix for Cook, and Jeff Wilson also joined the team mid-season last year and averaged over 50 yards a game, making for a very crowded situation compared to early last year.
• Of the 12 most comparable players to Mostert by age, production, and market ranking (ADP), only three of them went over 525 rushing yards the next season.

Staff notes:

• Our projection on White is 607 rushing yards, nearly 150 of rushing Under value.
• Rachaad White had fairly mediocre rushing efficiency and per-play stats last year, but is being boosted up because of a perceived lack of competiton for touches in Tampa Bay.
• In our similarity analysis, his comps (2nd year backs going in the same ADP range and rookie rate stats) performed poorly, with 10 of the 12 finishing with under 550 rushing yards.
• Reports yesterday out of Tampa Bay were that undrated free agent rookie Sean Tucker, who fell in the draft cycle because of health concerns, was impressing coaches and was splitting first team reps with White.
• Given White's poor comparable player performances that suggest he is vulnerable to being overvalued, along with these reports of an emerging rookie backup who is likely a better pure rusher, we see Under value on White here in a role closer to a platoon on a poor offensive team with Baker Mayfield now at QB.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Alvin Kamara is 475 rushing yards, 125 yards of Under value.
• This prop was finally posted after Kamara's suspension of three games was announced, and that suspension is accounted for in the line.
• We still see Under value here because of Kamara's likely 2023 role upon his return for suspension.
• In the last two years, Kamara has finished with over 200 rush attempts and over 800 rush yards, and had far fewer receptions than earlier in his career. But his primary backup was 32/33-year old Mark Ingram both seasons, and the Saints' second-leading rusher both years was "tight end" Taysom Hill.
• The Saints have addressed that lack of depth by signing Jamaal Williams from Detroit, and drafting rookie Kendre Miller from TCU in the third round. Both project as more rushers than receivers, allowing Kamara to return to more of his pre-2021 role.
• Those other two will have a chance to impress in the first three weeks with Kamara out, and we think the plan here is more of a committee approach when it comes to rush attempts, with Kamara freed up to be a higher volume receiver.
• This same line is available at DraftKings, but the juice on Under is -130, so shop for your best line.

Staff notes:

• Our projections give Atlanta a 29% chance of winning the NFC South, while the break-even percentage at these odds is 26.6%.
• We also like Atlanta here because there are some higher variance factors and value on a potential Falcons breakout.
• Atlanta is changing QBs to second-year Desmond Ridder, who got four starts at the end of last season after replacing Marcus Mariota.
• Our research has shown that there can be value on teams that have a new primary starter at QB, when that QB was already on the roster the year before.
• Atlanta also has a young, talented offensive core that could be primed for a breakout, with 22-year old WR Drake London and 23-year old TE Kyle Pitts, both drafted in the first round. The team added the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, in Bijan Robinson of Texas, with the 8th overall pick.
• Of the last 20 teams to spend a top 10 pick on a RB, 11 went over the win total, but more importantly for our purposes, they were higher variance and several had big breakouts, with eight of the 20 winning their division (with a preseason win total average of 7.0).

Staff notes:

• Our projections give Minnesota a 29% chance of winning the NFC North, while these odds have an implied 22.2% break-even rate.
• Our projection on Minnesota is on market, as we project them for 8.5 wins in a NFC North without a top contender.
• The division odds offered at FanDuel and DraftKings do not seem to be tied to the win total projections, as Minnesota has a higher win total at all books than both Green Bay and Chicago, but is behind Green Bay at FanDuel in division odds, and even with Chicago at both books. So we think this is just a mis-price in the division winner market here relative to other betting markets.

Staff notes:

• Our projection for Mixon is 749 rushing yards, about 75 yards of under value.
• The one thing propping Mixon up is the perceived lack of competition now that Samaje Perine is gone to Denver (though no one expected Perine to have as many yards as he did in the preseason a year ago).
• There's a decent chance that Joe Mixon just isn't very good any more. He finished with 814 rush yards a year ago despite a high volume of opportunities, because of poor efficiency.
• He averaged only 1.5 rush yards after contact last year, which put him near the bottom of the league with other veterans like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, two guys still looking for an opportunity to play this season. Mixon took a pay cut to not get cut himself.
• Mixon also has a bunch of off-the-field issues that could swing things against him if he starts poorly. You never know when the NFL would issue punishment, but since January, Mixon has been charged with a misdemeanor of aggravated meancing for alleging flashing a gun at a woman in a road rage incident right before the playoff game against Buffalo, and also has had a civil suit filed against him arising out of an incident where his sister's boyfriend fired at a teenage neighbor this March. 
• Given the combination of risk factors in both on-field and off-field performance and that the Bengals could always decide to bring in another veteran, we see value on the Under here.

Staff notes:

• Last year, we hit with an early May pick of Patrick Mahomes to lead the league in passing, and a lot of the same rationale applies to our pick on Burrow as the value play in that category this season. Burrow has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes, followed by Justin Herbert.
• An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last 11 years shows that over 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
• Burrow was 2nd (to Mahomes) in passing yards per game last season, while his total number was a little lower because the Bengals only played 16 games.
• The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.1 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Cincinnati is at 11.5 wins entering the season.
• Some subtle roster factors, include the age for RB Joe Mixon and expected decline, and having two elite wide receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins who are entering their prime, leads us to project Burrow as a value play here, when Patrick Mahomes at +400 is at much lower odds.

Staff notes:

• This is not a model pick, but is a recommendation based on motivation factors.
• As we noted in our pick'em article for this week, when a team with a losing record is favored over a playoff-bound team in the final regular season week, going back to 2002, and the starting QB for the playoff team doesn't play the full game, the favorites (like the Chargers) have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS. That includes Atlanta over Tampa Bay and Denver over the Chargers last year.
• It's already been announced that Patrick Mahomes is sitting and Blaine Gabbert will start for KC. 
• Other key veterans like Travis Kelce are only going to play until they hit milestones (16 yards to 1,000 for season) and this is going to be treated like a preseason game for KC, who has clinched the No. 3 seed.
• This line has already moved to -3.5 at sharper books but is still currently available at 3 at some of them.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 18.
• Some of the model factors in this one include New Orleans’ relatively poor recent rush defense, combined with Atlanta’s rushing attack (Atlanta ran for 228 yards against the Saints in the first meeting).
• The Saints also have poor rushing offense numbers, and now RB Alvin Kamara’s status is up in the air after an ankle injury.
• Saints are 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite this year.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick (and our top moneyline pick if you would rather play for the outright win) for Week 18.
• Since the start of 2013, teams that were shut out the week before, like Carolina, are 25-11-1 ATS the next week when they are underdogs. 
• So far this year, teams that were shut out went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the following week.

Staff notes:

• Our projection is for 65 receptions for Pittman, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
• This is a case where the projection on Pittman seems influenced by last year's stats, when it's very likely that how the Colts play on offense will be substantially different with a new coach and a rookie QB who will be a high-volume rusher.
• Pittman finished with 99 receptions but only 9.3 yards per catch last year with Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles playing at QB. That was a notable drop in yards per catch from his 12.6 and 12.3 marks in his first two years.
• We are actually slightly above the DraftKings receiving yards number for Pittman, projecting him for more than the 800.5 yards. Our overall stat projection for Pittman has him as WR30 in our rankings, directly on market.
• With Anthony Richardson at QB, the Colts project as a lower volume passing game, but one that should produce higher yards per catch numbers on big plays downfield. So we like the Under value here based on that style change for the offense.

Staff notes:

• We project Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson with over 800 rushing yards, one of three QBs we are projecting over that threshold (Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are the others).
• However, the prices for those other two are significantly lower, with Fields at +200 and Jackson at +240, and we see value as the market is likely undervaluing Richardson here as a rookie with no NFL track record.
• Richardson is an elite runner, and had 1,055 rushing yards in 19 games the last two seasons (and remember, in college they include negative sack yards in the rushing total, unlike the NFL.)
• In looking at the last 12 QB rushing leaders, three of them were rookies (Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton) and the last five have been a QB at age 23 or younger. 
• There are also subtle factors that impact Richardson versus the other elite runners. Justin Fields and the Bears rarely passed last year, as they had no receivers, but they traded for D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney returns from injury, so that could shift his rushing balance as Fields passes more. Jackson's Ravens have added Odell Beckham, rookie first rounder Zay Flowers, and get Rashod Bateman back from injury, and could pass more. 
• Richardson, meanwhile, is going to be coached by Shane Steichen, who was the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia when Jalen Hurts led the NFL in QB rushing in his first year as a starter, and Richardson is not polished as a passer and should get a lot of designed runs and scrambles.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• NC A&T is a vastly better team since Jason Murphy joined the team. He missed the first nine games waiting on an eligibility ruling after transferring from D2. In the 9 games without him, they were 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS. In 5 games with him, they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning three times outright as underdogs.
• By our WOWY analysis, they are 12.6 points better in the games with him than without him.
• Murphy has impacted the team's rebounding, as he posted 10 boards in each of the last two games, and NC A&T had only one game with an offensive rebound rate of 25% or higher without him, but has done that four times in four games with him.
• Elon rates 271st in defensive rebounding, similarly in rebounding efficiency to Campbell, who NC A&T just beat by 14 as a 2.5-point dog.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
• Wagner has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5, including last 3 as favorite, as it is dealing with some injuries.
• Guard Zaire Williams has been out, and Guard Rahmir Moore has been out since the third game, and based on this tweet it sounds like both are out a while. They are 2 of the 3 returning starters from last season.

Staff notes:

• This is our top-rated playable spread pick in Week 17.
• Since 2010, double-digit home faves in Week 16 or later are 66-4 SU and 37-30-3 ATS.
• Philadelphia has failed to cover in four straight, but have had a poor turnover differential in that stretch and there is rebound potential against an inferior opponent.
• Arizona placed their top WR Marquise Brown on IR this week, and QB Kyler Murray has missed practice most of the week with illness.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable model spread pick in Week 17.
• Carolina put up their season-high in points and yards last week, but came up just short in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay. The Panthers have now out-gained their opponents in three straight games, and are 3-1 ATS over the last 4 games since firing coach Frank Reich, after a 1-8-2 ATS start.
• Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a downward trend and QB Trevor Lawrence is battling through injuries. The team has lost four straight after looking like a lock to make the playoffs, including losing the last two by more than two touchdowns to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS over that span, with three of them failing to cover by more than 10 points.
• They cannot effectively run the ball (no games of 100+ rushing yards in the last five, and averaging 3.6 yards per rush for the year). The Jaguars pass defense is also a bottom 10 unit, and they rank 29th in passing yards allowed.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our highest-rated model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This line has already moved, shifting the favorite from Toledo to Wyoming.
• Toledo's starting QB and one of the top players in the MAC, Dequan Finn, has entered the transfer portal.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• We also like that Wyoming has a geographic advantage in a Western venue game, going against a team that will be playing with a different QB.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the Music City Bowl.
• It's also a play based on bowl game trends in colder weather venue games. 
• In the bowl games played at venues with average late December/early January temperatures of 50 degrees or below, over 60% of games have gone Over since 2008.
• So far this year, these games have gone Over 4 of 6 times, and the Music City Bowl in Nashville (average temperature 49 degrees, projected weather today in the 40s) is the final one for this bowl season.

Staff notes:

• This is our top playable moneyline pick for bowls currently.
• Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but the program will start true freshman Jackson Arnold, a 5-star recruit who was National Gatorade Player of the Year. Arnold has played a limited number of snaps but has completed 75% of his passes and been as efficient as Gabriel.
• Our predictive rating model would have Oklahoma as a large favorite (12.5 points) in this one, so the line is discounted quite a bit for transfer news, but we see value on taking Oklahoma with their quarterback of the future making his first start.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model play at +110, and the line available at some US books is better for value right now, including DraftKings at +130.
• This moneyline opened at +150 when bowls were announced but has been steadily moving downward at key books.
• Kansas State QB Will Howard entered the transfer portal, and offensive coordinator Colin Klein took a job at Texas A&M, potentially impacting the Kansas State offense. 

Staff notes:

• This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This is another game that has seen early line movement in San Jose State's favor, and we want to jump on this number while it is below the -10 key number.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• These are two teams going in opposite directions. Coastal Carolina closed the last 5 games without QB Grayson McCall, who is now back in the transfer portal and visiting major programs. They lost the finale by over 40 to James Madison. San Jose State is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch after a slow start.

Staff notes:

• This is currently our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
• So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• Georgia State has opened as the favorite but this line has moved in Utah State's favor and we like getting it below the 3 key number.
• Georgia State has lost five straight, going 1-4 ATS, with all the non-covers by double digits.
• Utah State has a significant climate/geographic advantage in this game, as it is played in an extreme cold weather venue in the mountains, and Georgia State will be the first Sun Belt team to play in the bowl (recently, it has been a MAC vs. MWC matchup).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the Famous Toastery Bowl.
• This line has moved from Western Kentucky being favored at opening to Old Dominion being favored, but you can still get it below a field goal.
• The reason for the line move is transfer portal news. Both teams have several players who have entered the portal, but Western Kentucky's losses appear more costly, as over half of their starting offensive line is out, and several secondary defenders, including star defensive back Upton Stout, who has several offers and has visited Michigan already
• We will play on the line move and against the quantity and quality of transfer losses for Western Kentucky.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable spread (and moneyline) pick for Week 15.
• For the second week in a row, playing against Baltimore as favorite, due to some extreme pass yards per completion and recent poor rush defense numbers, is showing up as a top model spread pick.
• If you can get the line above a field goal, we prefer the spread to the moneyline play.
• Jacksonville is coming off two straight poor defensive performances, losing close shootouts with Cleveland and Cincinnati.
• The weather for this game could provide an impact, though the game is later in the day. A severe storm has moved through Florida and the SE United States, and there are heavy rains and strong winds in the aftermath.

Staff notes:

• This is our highest rated model spread pick for Week 15.
• Washington has been poor in the favorite’s role (1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS) while being a solid underdog play (5-3-1 ATS) for most of the year.
• One reason that Washington has generally been better in the underdog role than as a favorite is likely because their defense ranks poorly (thus keeping even subpar offenses in the game against them), but their passing offense can be high variance with first-year starter Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in pass attempts.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.
• We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games in our Upset Picks articles (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears’ defense has been playing much better and has held three of the last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.
• After an 0-3 SU and ATS start where they lost each game by double digits, Chicago is 6-2-2 against the number, and have covered 4 straight as a dog, and three straight since Justin Fields returned from injury.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread (and moneyline at +215) pick for Week 15.
• The Giants have won three straight as underdogs with rookie Tommy DeVito taking over and becoming a national story.
• The Saints scored 28 points last week, but did so while only gaining just over 200 yards of offense against Carolina, as QB Derek Carr continues to play in the aftermath of several injuries and having two concussions in a month.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
• This line has already shifted from Ohio opening as a slight favorite to Georgia Southern being favored.
• We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
• We get these big line moves often now because of news on who is transferring before the bowl game, or is opting out.
• In this case, we will quote directly from the Action Network Transfer tracker: "Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones to an injury earlier this season. As a result, the Bobcats could be down their starting quarterback, top two backs and starting quarterback. With backup CJ Harris, who led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, also out for the year, the Bobs would turn to Parker Navarro, who would be the team's leading rusher (107) and passer (65) left on the roster."
• We also like Georgia Southern having a major travel advantage, only 250 miles from the game site, against a team that looks like it will be without every key offensive player from the season due to transfer portal.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is one of our top college basketball O/U model play for today.
• Over the previous 5 seasons plus the beginning of this one, Unders on totals in the 170s have gone 33-25-1 (56.8%).

Staff notes:

• Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 14.
• Both of these teams are coming off a Week 13 bye, and the Vikings have announced that QB Josh Dobbs will get the start, and the team will also get back WR Justin Jefferson, who has missed seven straight games.
• Both of these teams rate above average in yards per point on defense, and below average in yards per point on offense, meaning they have scored fewer and given up fewer than you would expect based on the yards profile.

Staff notes:

• This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 14.
• The Panthers' extremely low points per play and yards per pass in recent games are a model factor in this one.
• The Saints have been averaging 390 yards per game over their last seven, but have underperformed in points scored relative to yards in recent games.

Staff notes:

• Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
• This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday).