Past Picks

NCAAB picks are 233-214-5, for +19.8 units of profit (assuming 1 unit risked on every pick).

NBA picks are 14-29, for -9.1 units of profit (assuming 1 unit risked on every pick).

NCAAB Spread

San Diego St. -5.5 -110

Won: 85-57

Yale vs. San Diego St.

Sun Mar 24 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game by more than 5 points against Yale.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on lineup and game trends.
  • Yale is coming off the outright win against Auburn, where a lot of extreme things happened for them. Auburn had a starter ejected early in the game, and Yale had the highest FT rate of any game all year, at 59.6% FTA/FGA ratio (Their season average was 27.8%, 311th in D1). 
  • Yale also hit 45% from three, their fourth best shooting performance of the year (35% average), while winning despite Auburn shooting over 60% on two-point attempts.
  • Going back to 2011, teams seeded No. 13 or lower who won in the First Round are 9-16 ATS in the Second Round. However, those that did it despite the three-point shooting being 31% or lower went 4-4 ATS (including Princeton last year) while everyone else went 5-12 ATS.
  • So we will play against Yale's short term shooting performance and extreme outlier FTA rate from the First Round. 

Pick published: Mar 24 3:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 838

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M +8.5 -105

Won: 95-100

Texas A&M vs. Houston

Sun Mar 24 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points against Houston.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
  • We will continue to ride the "Texas A&M with Manny Obaseki" train here. Since Obaseki was inserted as a starter and the Aggies went to a three-guard lineup, the transformation has been remarkable. Texas A&M's average Game Score over that span is +21.9 (for reference, that's in the range of the top No. 1 seeds and their average over the full season). A team who was among the worst shooting teams in the country has been 39% from three over the last seven, while adding in their best outside shooter as a starter, and also a player who can dribble drive and open up opportunities for the other guards.
  • Obaseki has averaged 16.8 points per game as a starter, while the team has averaged 85.1 points per game in his starts.
  • A&M has had so many different lineups and lineup shifts that we see value, as the market is still tied to the Texas A&M overall numbers and season averages, and this team is noticeably different.  As one clear example, A&M will likely have three different starters than the first matchup in December (a 4-point Houston win). 
  • Houston's rating is also slightly inflated by their ability to blow out much weaker opponents. In games with a spread of less than 10 points, they are 4-11 ATS this year (all as favorites), and are 7-11 ATS in road/neutral situations. 

Pick published: Mar 24 3:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 835

NCAAB Team Future

Houston to Miss Sweet 16 +320

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Houston Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Houston to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for Houston is 69.5% to make and 30.5% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +320 line is 24.4%.
  • We believe there is some edge in this based on the recent quality of both Nebraska and Texas A&M, one of whom will be the second round opponent. Both teams are better than their overall season power rating based on the current lineups.
  • Houston also has an X-factor forward J'Wan Roberts being limited in the Big 12 tournament by a knee bone bruise, something that could impact his performance. The team is also thin at the forward position after injuries to the bench, so Roberts not being 100% increases the risk of an upset.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

Alabama To Miss Sweet 16 -115

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Alabama Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "Alabama to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for Alabama is 42.9% to make and 57.1% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the -115 line is 53.5%.
  • We have been fading Alabama recently because of their poor defensive performance over the last month. They have been injury-impacted with Latrell Wrightsell and Rylan Griffen missing games down the stretch, but it's not promising that they will turn it around to respectable defense.
  • Since 2011, there have been 18 teams who were top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and were inside the top 20 in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted offense rankings, and outside the top 70 in adjusted defense. Of those 18, 33% lost in Round 1, including several notable big upsets, and only 39% reached the Sweet 16.
  • Alabama finished 3rd in Ken Pomeroy's offensive efficiency but 113th in defensive efficiency, and finished that poorly despite opponents hitting only 32% from three on the year.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

North Carolina To Miss Sweet 16 +164

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: North Carolina Does Not Reach the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under the "Sweet 16" tab, and then "North Carolina to Make 2024 Tournament Sweet 16" - NO.
  • Our projected odds for North Carolina is 59.2% to make and 40.8% to miss the Sweet 16, while the break-even for the +164 line is 37.9%.
  • We like this prop based on the quality of the second round draw, where either Michigan State or Mississippi State rank as tougher than average teams out of the No. 8/9 area.
  • North Carolina is also a below average No. 1 seed by overall strength. They rank 8th in our tournament rankings (and 9th at KenPom). No. 1 seeds who have been power rated outside the top 4 in our rankings entering the tournament have only averaged 2.2 wins going back to 2010, compared to 3.4 for all other No. 1 seeds.

Pick published: Mar 20 11:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Spread

Marquette -4.5 -108

Lost: 81-77

Colorado vs. Marquette

Sun Mar 24 • 12:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marquette wins the game by more than 4 points against Colorado.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for Sunday.
  • Some of the model factors include Colorado's low 3-point rate, and Marquette is 10-4-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in three-point rate (compared to 11-9 ATS all others).
  • Colorado also rates poorly in turnovers on offense, while Marquette is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers. We see a big advantage there as Colorado is 0-4 ATS this year against teams inside the top 50 in defensive turnover rate, and Marquette is 10-5 ATS against teams outside the top 150 in turnover rate.
  • This Marquette team also got Tyler Kolek back healthy, and after a slow first half, they turned it on as a team in the second half against Western Kentucky, and look to be back at full strength.

Pick published: Mar 24 11:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 830

NCAAB Spread

Oregon +4.5 -105

Lost: 73-86

Oregon vs. Creighton

Sat Mar 23 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Creighton.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on roster trends.
  • Oregon put up a third straight dominant performance against a high-level tournament team, now beating Arizona, Colorado, and South Carolina, the first two who are still playing this weekend.
  • Oregon has faced a lot of injuries this year, and this recent run started a few games earlier when they shifted their distribution on offense, concentrating usage on their three best players, N'Faly Dante, Jermaine Couisnard, and Jackson Shelstad. Those three combined for 74 of the 87 (with Couisnard going for 40) in the win over South Carolina.
  • It presents a strength on strength here, as Creighton also plays a shorter bench, and we have a great big man matchup here between Dante and Ryan Kalkbrenner of Creighton. Since the start of March, Dante has made 58-of-69 shots and has averaged 19.8 points a game over this run.

Pick published: Mar 23 12:34pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 793

NCAAB Spread

NC State -5.5 -120

Won: 79-73

Oakland vs. NC State

Sat Mar 23 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: NC State wins the game by more than 5 points against Oakland.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trends as well as performance trends from past NCAA Tournaments.
  • Oakland beat Kentucky 80-76 in a game they hit 48% from three and only 34% of their two-point attempts.
  • Going back to 2011, there have been 24 different upsets by a No. 13 seed or lower, and there is a decent negative correlation between three-point shooting in the First Round, and performance compared to the spread in the next games.
  • Overall, these lower seeds are only 9-15 ATS in the Second Round, but those who won while making 31% or fewer of their three-pointers went 4-4 ATS in the next game, while everyone else is 5-11 ATS.
  • The NC State win over Texas Tech (by 13) provided another data point that this team is playing much better down the stretch, putting up five straight great performances. Further, in all games with Mohamed Diarra starting and DJ Horne playing, the team has an average rating of +13.5, versus +7.5 in all other games.

Pick published: Mar 23 12:33pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 796

NCAAB Spread

Wisconsin -5.5 -105

Lost: 61-72

James Madison vs. Wisconsin

Fri Mar 22 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wisconsin wins the game by more than 5 points against James Madison.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for Friday in the NCAA Tournament, and also a pick based on lineup trends.
  • Wisconsin had a down stretch in Big Ten conference play, after a really strong start. And then they closed strong, including the OT win over Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
  • That conference stretch corresponded with backup PG Kamari McGee missing 11 straight games, and also some extreme opponent three point rate performance. 
  • Wisconsin's depth at point guard after McGee is thin, as Chucky Hepburn had to play more minutes, and Max Klesmit would have to fill that role if Hepburn needed a break while McGee was out.
  • Since McGee's return and the Badgers having a full rotation, they have averaged a Game Score of +21.2 (elite top seed level) while finishing 5-1 ATS.
  • Wisconsin finished 14th in opponent 3-point FG% against in Big Ten play (out of 14) and as a result ranks near the bottom of Division 1 at 37% allowed. 
  • James Madison is at the other extreme, 2nd in 3 point % against (29%), and that started in their OT win over Michigan State in the first game, where the Spartans went a dreadful 1-for-20 from deep. 

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 762

NCAAB Spread

Charleston +9.5 -104

Lost: 96-109

Charleston vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 22 • 7:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on a roster trend analysis and matchup review.
  • Alabama has been struggling on defense, all year, but particularly down the stretch, going 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS over their final 10, with the last 5 non-covers coming by double digits vs the spread.
  • If you look at their defensive performances, their three worst have all come since the last week of February. The only two (out of the last 10 games) that were better than their season average, just barely, were in games their opponents shot 17% and 20% from three. So unless Charleston has really bad shooting luck from outside, they have a really good chance to light up this Alabama defense.
  • Charleston is also playing better than their raw season numbers, after a slow start at 1-3. They've won 12 in row. Three of their best five offensive performances for the year have come since February 29th.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 783

NCAAB Spread

Colorado +1.5 -110

Won: 102-100

Colorado vs. Florida

Fri Mar 22 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points against Florida.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend and lineup analysis.
  • Our adjusted tournament ratings, our raw predictive ratings, and other sites like Ken Pomeroy all have Colorado rated higher.
  • Colorado's performance recently has improved, and they are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games, all in road/neutral situations, and the Pac-12 teams looked good on the first day of tournament action, opening the possibility that the conference teams are a bit undervalued looking at full season numbers.
  • Florida just lost center Micah Handgloten to a broken leg on Sunday in the SEC title game. While they do have depth inside, the 7-footer is their best offensive rebounder, for a team that ranks 7th nationally in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, Colorado is 29th in def rebound rate, and with Handgloten out may be able to neutralize one of Florida's big strengths.

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 769

NCAAB Spread

UAB +6.5 -110

Won: 65-69

UAB vs. San Diego St.

Fri Mar 22 • 1:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points against San Diego State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our roster and lineup trends.
  • UAB is playing substantially better with their current lineup and minute distribution.
  • Since mid-January, when the team demoted guard Tony Toney, the least efficient player on offense in the rotation, they have been substantially better. Average game rating 0.0 in 16 games before, +8.9 since in 18 games.
  • Christian Coleman, who has a great story, growing 8 inches after high school while working at WalMart, and taking a long route to D1 through NAIA and JUCO, has emerged at the end of his first year at UAB. Over the last five games, Walker has averaged 15.6 points a game, UAB's average Game Score is +16.4, and Walker was inserted in the lineup for all three wins in the American tourney.

Pick published: Mar 22 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 785

NCAAB Spread

Drake +1.5 -120

Lost: 61-66

Drake vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 21 • 10:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drake wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points against Washington State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a play based on recent lineup and roster trends and other factors.
  • This particular line is off some other movement, where Drake has moved to a slight favorite at other books this morning, you can also play it at -1, but we are listing this one in case you can still grab at FanDuel.
  • Drake is better than their full season number. If we isolate the games by lineup similarity to their recent usage in the MVC Tournament, and exclude the eight most dissimilar games (due to player injuries and minute distribution) their average rises to +11.7, two points better than the season average.
  • Washington State was playing well in most of Pac-12 play, up until their big upset of Arizona in Tucson. Since that result, though, they closed 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, and their average Game Score was +8.9, nearly four points below the season average.
  • There's a lineup-related reason, as they suddenly started playing their two posts far less and playing a smaller lineup. The combo of Oscar Cluff and Rueben Chinyelu have averaged only 27 minutes in that run, compared to a combined 39 minutes in the previous 6. We cannot find an injury-related reason for the shift, but it has maintained through Pac-12 play. The biggest issue in the decline is also defense, particularly opponent shooting on two-point attempts.
  • As an additional factor, we also like that this game is played in Omaha, a short two-hour drive across I-80, while Washington State is traveling from the Pacific Time Zone.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 745

NCAAB Moneyline

Dayton To Win +110

Won: 63-60

Nevada vs. Dayton

Thu Mar 21 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dayton wins the game against Nevada in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis and matchup analysis.
  • Our adjustments after lineup reviews have Dayton as the slight favorite here by a point, while the betting line is the other way, with Nevada typically favored by -1 to -1.5 on the spread, and Dayton a small +number on the moneyline. We've posted the best number at US books, the second-best being +102 at DK, so shop around.
  • We also like some of the matchup factors, including this one: Nevada is 3rd in the nation at FTA to FGA rate, at 46%, so they rely on getting to the foul line for a bigger portion of their offense. Dayton is 3rd in the nation on defense, only allowing 22% FTA to FGA rate.
  • Add in that in these NCAA Tournament games, they might be officiated a little looser than some conferences are used to, and we like the team that doesn't foul, and forces long possessions defensively, against a team reliant on getting to the line. The most similar game last year was the 7/10 game between Texas A&M (45% FTA/FGA) against Penn State (26% FTA/FGA allowed), a game that Penn State won comfortably by 17 as a dog.

Pick published: Mar 21 3:51pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 754

NCAAB Spread

Morehead St. +11.5 +100

Lost: 69-85

Morehead St. vs. Illinois

Thu Mar 21 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points against Illinois.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick for Thursday's First Round, and it's also a play based on trend analysis.
  • Illinois is a top 10 offensive team but their defensive numbers are very poor for a top at-large, and they rank near the bottom of D1 in turnovers forced.
  • Recent high seeds with that profile have underachieved. 2021 2 seed Ohio State losing to Oral Roberts is a prominent example, but it also includes 2021 2 seed Iowa not covering in first round, then getting blown out by Oregon, 2018 4 seeds Arizona and Wichita State losing outrgiht to Buffalo and Marshall respectively.

Pick published: Mar 18 9:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 743

NCAAB Spread

Kent St. +4.5 -110

Won: 61-62

Kent St. vs. Akron

Sat Mar 16 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Akron.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis.
  • Kent State has played better with their current lineup, and has put together two of their best performances in the MAC tournament.
  • Akron has been struggling on offense. Their overall rating over the last six games has been lower, even though opponents have shot under 30% from three in the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. The issue is turnovers and overall offensive efficiency.
  • Kent State ranks inside the top 100 in turnover rate, and we'll play the underdog who is peaking against a team that could be vulnerable and struggling on offense.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 627

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M +2.5 -110

Lost: 90-95

Texas A&M vs. Florida

Sat Mar 16 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points against Florida.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a pick based on roster trends.
  • One word: Obaseki. Okay, more than one, but after a terrible stretch through SEC play where they really struggled on defense, Buzz Williams went to a true-3 guard offense, inserting Manny Obaseki to play as a starter with Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor. 
  • The results have been huge, a Game Score over +22, scoring over 80 points a game, and the three combining for 75 in the win over Kentucky yesterday. Obaseki (40% from three) has brought an element this team was lacking, as they were really struggling on offense playing a bigger player at the 3 with Radford and Taylor all year, who was a worse shooter.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 615

NCAAB Spread

Florida +4.5 -108

Won: 102-88

Florida vs. Alabama

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points against Alabama.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Alabama's rating is a little inflated by being able to beat up on really bad teams, and their average rating against top competition is lower.
  • Florida plays at pace like Alabama, and has had success in both games against the Tide in the regular season, winning by 18 in Gainesville and losing in OT at Alabama (and covering) in a game where they had a 9-point lead with six minutes left.
  • So we will continue to fade this Alabama defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in efficiency, when getting points against them.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 825

NCAAB Spread

San Diego St. -4.5 -115

Won: 86-70

San Diego St. vs. Utah St.

Fri Mar 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game by more than 4 points against Utah State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on roster trend analysis.
  • Both teams are coming off OT wins in the quarterfinals, Utah State's margin ended up being 12 points in OT, against a depleted Fresno State team, but it was a much worse performance than San Diego State against host UNLV.
  • Utah State was without starting freshman guard Mason Falslev, who missed the quarterfinal against Fresno State, and based on the coach's comments yesterday, is not likely to be ready a day later.

Pick published: Mar 15 6:07pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 867

NCAAB Spread

Boston College +5.5 -110

Lost: 60-66

Boston College vs. Virginia

Thu Mar 14 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston College wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 against Virginia.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Virginia has really struggled on offense down the stretch, with four really poor performances on offense in the last 7 games. The average Game Score has only been +3.6 over that span, after being over +11 in all games prior.
  • Boston College is coming off a 21-point win over Clemson in the previous round. Three of BC's best four Game Scores have come in the last four contests. While some of that has been driven by poor opponent 3-point rates, they have also dominated on the offensive glass for four straight games, and limited opponents to under 48% on two-point shots in all four, after doing that only three times in ACC play up until that point.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 733

NCAAB Spread

Stanford +8.0 -108

Lost: 62-79

Stanford vs. Washington St.

Thu Mar 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Washington St.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and lineup trends.
  • Stanford is better with the current lineup playing. In the 13 games with the current lineup (which starts with freshman point guard Kanaan Carlyle taking over, and excludes the three games missed by Spencer Jones), the Cardinal have a +7.8 rating versus +4.6 in all other games.
  • Washington State has had a great season, and has been better overall since Jaylen Wells became a starter. However, they closed poorly after the Arizona upset win at Tucson, and it has largely been because of defense. The last four opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 52.8% or better (and it is not driven by extreme outside shooting splits), after holding 8 of the 9 previous opponents under 50% effective FG%.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 779

NCAAB Spread

Kansas State +8.0 -110

Lost: 57-76

Kansas State vs. Iowa State

Thu Mar 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas State wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points against Iowa State.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis and matchups.
  • Our raw power rating difference (7.8) is very similar to the game line but we have reason to believe that there is value on Kansas State when digging in.
  • Iowa State's rating is a bit inflated by their performance against cupcakes. Against the weakest 8 opponents in the non-conference, they had an average Game Score of +27.0 vs. +16.8 in all other games.
  • Iowa State was substantially better at home than road/neutral situations this year, Iowa State's average home Game Score was +23.8 and road/neutral was +13.8 (average venue expectation should be adjusted for in the Game Score, so these are extreme splits after already accounting for that).
  • Since K-State went to starting lineup switch to go with more guards, starting Dai Dai Ames and bringing David N'Guessan off the bench, their average rating is +12.4 over 11 games, versus +8.8 for all previous games.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

NCAAB Spread

Ohio -9.5 -110

Won: 82-55

Western Michigan vs. Ohio

Thu Mar 14 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio wins the game against Western Michigan by more than 9 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Some of the model factors being picked up are related to Western Michigan's low rate of turnovers forced versus turnovers committed, and Ohio's advantage there.
  • Ohio is 11-2 ATS against teams ranked outside the top 200 in offensive turnover rate, and only 5-12 against all others.
  • Western Michigan is ranked 321st nationally in offensive turnover rate.
  • Western Michigan did upset Ohio by 2 at home in their only meeting this year, one of the two non-covers for Ohio against poor turnover teams, but early foul trouble and an outside shooting percentage advantage actually negated the turnover advantage Ohio had (+8), and Ohio did almost come back from a 10-point deficit late with their ability to create pressure.

Pick published: Mar 14 5:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 718

NCAAB Spread

Texas Tech +3.5 -110

Won: 81-67

Brigham Young vs. Texas Tech

Thu Mar 14 • 12:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against BYU.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and trends.
  • Both teams are playing really well right now, but we show value on Texas Tech being better than perception based on recent lineup performance. Tech has overcome injuries, and the loss of Warren Washington (who has missed 4 straight and 6 of last 7) has resulted in a big minutes increase for sophomore Robert Jennings, who has responded with strong offensive rebound numbers.
  • Over the last 10 games, Tech has an average Game Score of +15.4 (three points better than all other games) and three of their best performances of the year have come in the last three games.

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 752

NCAAB Spread

Michigan St. -6.5 -110

Won: 77-67

Minnesota vs. Michigan St.

Thu Mar 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State wins the game by more than 6 points against Minnesota.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • We also show slight value on this line in our adjust lineup spreads.
  • Michigan State is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS against teams in the top 50 at avoiding turnovers, and 16-7-1 ATS against all others. Minnesota ranks outside the top 200 in that category.
     

Pick published: Mar 14 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 736

NCAAB Spread

Penn St. -6.5 -110

Won: 66-57

Michigan vs. Penn St.

Wed Mar 13 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game by more than 6 points against Michigan.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on roster trend analysis, as these two teams have gone in the complete opposite direction over the last month.
  • In my review notes, I wrote "has this Michigan team given up?" and it's a fair question in looking at their season. After a 5-5 ATS start, they are a woeful 3-18 ATS. 12 of the last 13 losses are by double digits, and the last 3 losses are by 30, 23, and then by 15 at home to Nebraska on Senior Night, in a game where they allowed Nebraska to shoot 72% on two-point attempts.
  • Since January 20th, the average Michigan Game Score is -2.1, compared to +8.2 for all previous games, a steep drop of more than 10 points that is mostly not due to injury.
  • Olivier Nkamhoua was lost for the season four games ago, and provides the best defender, and with him out, the two-point defense has been pretty bad.
  • Penn State, meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 under first year coach Mike Rhoades, and that run corresponds with point guard Kanye Clary being hurt, and then being dismissed from the team after returning as a backup. Ace Baldwin slid over to the point guard role full-time without Clary and the team has thrived.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars.

Rot# 688

NCAAB Spread

Arkansas -6.0 -110

Lost: 90-85

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas

Wed Mar 13 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game by more than 6 points against Vanderbilt.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
  • Arkansas has played much better recently after a year full of lineup turnover and inconsistency and injuries.
  • In the most similar games to their recent rotation usage, they are +3 points better than the full season average.
  • In the last 7 games with the current lineup, they are 6-1 ATS and a +15.6 Game Score average, similar to their preseason expectation.
  • The only bad performance they have had during that stretch was against Vanderbilt, in what was Vandy's single best Game Score result of the season. Trevon Brazile for Arkansas fouled out after only 17 minutes of playing in that game, and Arkansas had to use different post rotations due to foul trouble.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 698

NCAAB Spread

Southern California -3.5 -102

Won: 80-74

Southern California vs. Washington

Wed Mar 13 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game over Washington in the Pac-12 Quarterfinals.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on our roster trend analysis.
  • These are two teams going in the opposite directions, and USC just won at Washington two weeks ago as part of their improved stretch. Washington just fired head coach Mike Hopkins at the conclusion of the regular season.
  • With the current optimal starting lineup, USC is 10-4 ATS with an average game rating of +15.6 and is coming off an outright win over Arizona. They are 5-12 ATS with different lineups this year.

Pick published: Mar 13 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 671

NCAAB Team Future

Gonzaga to win WCC Tournament -140

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Gonzaga has been playing much better since Ben Gregg was inserted in the lineup for Dusty Stromer, putting up a 20.0 Game Score (for perspective, a typical No. 1 seed will be around there or just above it for the season) in 8 of the last 14 games.
  • Saint Mary's is injury-impacted, losing the Josh Jefferson for the season on February 10th. 
  • For the same reasons we had Gonzaga as a Staff Pick to win at St. Mary's as an underdog in the season finale, we like Gonzaga here, and our estimates are 63% to win the WCC tournament.

Pick published: Mar 11 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

NCAAB Team Future

Charleston to win Coastal Athletic Conference Tournament +225

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the 2024 Coastal Athletic Conference Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Charleston is the No. 1 seed and has the shortest odds to win the Coastal Athletic, and we still see value taking into account their current form.
  • If you exclude the first four games of the year, when Charleston got off to a poor start, Charleston's average Game Score is +5.9, a +1.7 point improvement over the full season rating.
  • Looking at the most similar games by lineup/minute usage, Charleston's average is +6.9, nearly 3 points better than the full season average.
  • Charleston enters the CAA Tournament on a nine-game win streak and playing their best basketball of the year, and over the final four games they have won by an average of 17 points and covered the spread in all, by an average of 11 points.
  • After running the CAA Conference simulations with Charleston's rating being about two points better than the season average, they win the tournament 36% of the time, providing value at the current line. (We would play this down to about +200).

Pick published: Mar 4 5:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Spread

Milwaukee +3.5 +100

Lost: 76-83

Milwaukee vs. Oakland

Tue Mar 12 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the Horizon League final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our lineup trend analysis.
  • Milwaukee is better than their full season power rating (and the spread is in line with our full season rating for both teams), because of numerous injuries and lineup changes and the current lineup being an improvement over their previous performance.
  • The team's best player and point guard BJ Freeman missed 8 games and didn't start in 5 others while working back from injury, and the team is better when he is fully healthy.
  • Milwaukee also replaced several inefficient shooters with better offensive players, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and the current lineup is much better at surrounding Freeman with guys that can hit shots. 
  • As a result, we would put this at closer to Milwaukee +1.5 and see it as a playable opportunity on current form due to current lineup improvement.

Pick published: Mar 12 6:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 623

NCAAB Spread

East Tennessee St. +9.5 -105

Won: 69-76

East Tennessee St. vs. Samford

Mon Mar 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: East Tennessee State wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points in Southern Conf Final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
  • East Tennessee State is a little better than their raw power rating with the current lineup. They performed worse when starter Karon Boyd was out, as they have limited depth and the players that played more minutes in his place were inefficient underclassmen.
  • Since Boyd's return in late January, ETSU's average Game Score has been +0.9, versus -3.5 for all previous games. Three of their best Game Scores have come in the last two weeks, with two coming in the conference tournament.
  • Samford's A.J. Staton-McCray, the team's leading defensive rebounder from the wing position, missed several games and has not started and played only 21 minutes off the bench in the last two tournament games. Samford rates poorly in defensive rebounding, and that's ETSU's strength (24th nationally, with Boyd being a big factor). So if Staton-McCray is limited again, the underdog ETSU Bucs could have a rebounding edge to stay in the game.

Pick published: Mar 11 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 865

NCAAB Team Future

Florida Atlantic to win American Conference regular season title +140

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic gets the No. 1 seed in the American Conference after winning the regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections in the American are 49% for Florida Atlantic versus 30% for Memphis to win the conference. 
  • We have Florida Atlantic power-rated as the better team, while Memphis is ranked higher in the human polls, and is the betting market favorite slightly over FAU, so we like getting plus odds here on FAU.
  • You can also read Ken Pomeroy's blog post on Memphis' ranking here, as further support on why we think we are getting a little value here based on public overrating Memphis.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NCAAB Team Future

Houston to win Big 12 regular season title +340

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Houston gets the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament after winning regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Houston is a 34% chance to win the Big 12 regular season.
  • Houston has started 1-2 in conference with two consecutive road losses at top quality opponents, after starting the year 14-0, so we are getting a little dip here.
  • The Big 12 is the toughest conference this year, and our projection is that even the best teams will finish with around 5-6 conference losses.
  • We are getting line value specifically at FanDuel that we want to grab at the +340 price (FanDuel has Kansas as the favorite at +220). We show little value at other books, where the price is +175 at Caesars and +200 at BetMGM.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

North Carolina Central to win MEAC regular season title +250

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: NC Central gets the No. 1 seed in the MEAC tournament after winning regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give NC Central a 42% chance of winning the MEAC regular season title.
  • Our review of the "With or Without You" scores for NC Central also shows some potential value on them being better than their overall rating. They had multiple games without key players, including starting point guard Fred Cleveland. But in games where the guard trio of Cleveland, Po'Boigh King, and Ja'Darius Harris all start and play significant minutes (including the most recent 6 games), their rating is +0.2, versus -7.1 in the other games, and -3.3 rating across all games.
  • They also have a win in hand against conference co-favorite Norfolk State, who they just beat on January 8th.

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Team Future

Alabama to Win SEC regular season title +370

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Alabama earns the No. 1 seed in the 2024 SEC Tournament by winning the regular season title.

Staff notes:

  • The current projection for Alabama is a 40% to win the SEC regular season title, after starting conference play 4-0.
  • Alabama is one of three SEC teams ranked inside our top 7 in the predictive power ratings, and is also rated No. 7 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
  • This FanDuel line is off-market from some other books, where Alabama is +180 to win at Caesars and +210 at DraftKings.
  • The SEC is a tough conference, and there's plenty of competition with Auburn and Tennessee at the top, but we would play this down to +235 (30% break-even odds)

Pick published: Jan 17 4:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

Purdue to win Big Ten regular season title +175

Won

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Purdue finishes 1st in the Big Ten Conference and earns the No. 1 seed entering the Big Ten tourney.

Staff notes:

  • This is value we see based on the first night of results in college basketball, and this futures market not shifting noticeably.
  • Purdue won their first game by 53 points over Samford, more than doubling them up, and while people may have a tendency to lump all these mid-majors together, Samford is not a bottom of D1 team, ranking inside our top 200, and finishing in a tie for first place last year in the Southern Conference.
  • Meanwhile, Michigan State, who had our second-highest odds to win the Big Ten in the preseason, lost at home to James Madision in the season opener, dropping down from No. 5 to No. 20 in our power ratings. Michigan State was being hyped up in markets and polls, but hasn't finished above a No. 7 seed in three straight years entering this one, and there's a possibility that they were just overvalued.
  • After these shifts, we project Purdue, who is the No. 1 team in our power ratings, to have over a 50% chance of winning the Big Ten regular season title, at odds where the break-even is 36.4%.

Pick published: Nov 7 2:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Team Future

Southern California to win Pac-12 regular season title +350

Lost

2023-2024 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: USC wins the Pac-12 regular season title and earns the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have USC at 23.6% to win the Pac-12, making them the second-favorite behind Arizona.
  • USC won their season opener last night in impressive fashion over Kansas State, 82-69, in a game where they went on an early 14-2 run and led by double digits throughout, holding Kansas State to 37% effective field goal percentage. 
  • Freshman point guard Isaiah Collier, one of the top recruits in the nation, had an impressive debut, scoring 15 points in the first half, and backed up some of the hype about this incoming freshman class for USC. 
  • USC now is inside our top 10 in power rating, and we see the Pac-12 as a two-horse race between USC and Arizona, with UCLA expected to take a step back with so many key losses, and see relative value on USC here, if the depth, size, and Collier at point guard all come together.

Pick published: Nov 7 2:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Spread

Southern California +8.5 -110

Won: 78-65

Arizona at Southern California

Sat Mar 9 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our lineup analysis and roster trends.
  • USC has been substantially better with their preferred starting five. They have now gone 9-4 ATS with their best starting lineup, with a power rating of +14.4 in those games, versus 5-12 with a +2.0 power rating in all others.
  • Over their last six, after star freshman point guard Isaiah Collier has returnd to the lineup, they have gone 4-2 with the only two losses coming in double OT (at Colorado) and by 3 at Washington State in a game they led throughout.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 728

NCAAB Spread

Connecticut -9.5 -110

Won: 74-60

Connecticut at Providence

Sat Mar 9 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our lineup and roster trend analysis.
  • Connecticut is better than their full season rating if you exclude earlier games missed by Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan, and they should be at full strength today.
  • Providence meanwhile has been a little worse than the full season rating without Bryce Hopkins.
  • In the earlier meeting, Connecticut won by 9 even though they shot 4-of-23 from beyond the arc (Providence was 4-of-18), and Providence's two best players, Carter and Oduro, both scored 20 points.
  • Connecticut's depth should be too much for Providence, and we would put this one at about 2.5 points higher based on the current lineups.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 705

NCAAB Spread

Southern Utah -5.0 -110

Won: 68-59

Southern Utah at Texas Rio Grande Valley

Sat Mar 9 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Utah wins the game by more than 5 on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for both spread and Moneyline (at -218) for Saturday, and you could play either.
  • So far this year, our top-rated model spread picks are 53% and our top-rated model plays are 30-24 for +24.0 units.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 701

NCAAB Spread

Arkansas +14.5 -110

Won: 88-92

Arkansas at Alabama

Sat Mar 9 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game or loses by fewer than 15 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a pick based on our roster and lineup trend analysis.
  • No team has been as impacted by injuries as much as Arkansas, as 13 different players have started at least one game and they have used countless lineup combinations, and that explains in part their disappointing season (and low overall power rating).
  • But they have been noticeably better in the last 6 games, with the lineup of Battle/Mark/Ellis/Lawson + either Davis or Brazile (returning from injury and 7 missed games in a row).
  • In games where 5 of those 6 start, they are at +9.0 Game Score for season, and only +2.1 in all other games.
  • Meanwhile, Alabama is going the opposite direction, their defensive numbers have collapsed, and their rating is also inflated by some early season blowouts of their weakest opponents.
  • Alabama should have Latrell Wrightsell, who played 8 minutes last game, back, but even with him Alabama doesn't rate as highly in looking at similar games with their projected lineup.

Pick published: Mar 9 9:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 603

NCAAB Spread

Ball St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 70-80

Ball St. at Bowling Green

Fri Mar 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for Friday, and also a play based on lineup analysis.
  • Ball State's average Game Score has been much better once we account for the earlier games Davion Bailey missed, and Ball State just put up a strong performance to get a win in the last game despite being without leading scorer Bashir Jihad, who missed with back tightness after a fall in the previous game. Ball State is now playing to earn a spot into the MAC Tournament in this game and it's a de facto playoff game for them.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 859

NCAAB Spread

Hampton +3.5 -105

Won: 56-55

Hampton vs. Elon University

Fri Mar 8 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hampton wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB, and also a play we like based on our review of the lineup trends.
  • The current spread matches our full season numbers for these teams, but Elon lost starting point guard Rob Higgins and he has been out 7 straight games. Their worst Game rating was in the final regular season game, and also the 2nd and 3rd worst are over the last month and a half.
  • Hampton's game results have been a little better with the current lineup from the last few games, so we think there's some value in these two teams being a lot closer in current rating.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 879

NCAAB Moneyline

Belmont To Win -110

Lost: 62-67

Belmont vs. Northern Iowa

Fri Mar 8 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont wins the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a play based on our lineup analysis.
  • Belmont has been playing at a substantially higher level over the last 9 games (they were also a successful staff pick last Sunday, and are 8-1 ATS after yesterday's game, covering over half by double digits).
  • That change corresponds with point guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie returning from a month-long injury to start conference play, and joining a new starting lineup rotation, that has only been in use for these four games.
  • Belmont's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have been stellar during this run, and we are willing to bet on the chemistry and improvement of this current lineup not being reflected fully in the line. Belmont is averaging a Game Score of +11.5 (at-large tournament quality) in the last 9 games versus -1.1 for the previous 23 with different lineups and with Gillespie's injury.
  • We list this as a moneyline play here, but it is playable at the more common -1 (-110) spread available at other books.

Pick published: Mar 8 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 871

NCAAB Moneyline

Texas State To Win +148

Won: 75-59

Texas State vs. Southern Miss

Thu Mar 7 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas State wins the game against Southern Miss on Thursday, March 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to +139.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:06pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 779

NCAAB Over/Under

Saint Joseph's at Richmond Under 144.5 -110

Won: 139 points

Wed Mar 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Joseph's and Richmond combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Wednesday, March 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Pick published: Mar 6 12:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 676

NCAAB Over/Under

Loyola (MD) at Navy Over 131.5 -115

Lost: 112 points

Tue Mar 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Loyola-Maryland and Navy combine for more than 131 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday. You can also play this at the more common 132.5 Over -110 available at other books.

Pick published: Mar 5 5:04pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306519

NCAAB Over/Under

Bowling Green at Western Michigan Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 138 points

Tue Mar 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bowling Green and Western Michigan combine for more than 143 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is tied for our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, and this number is getting a 0.5 point of value versus our consensus line.

Pick published: Mar 5 5:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 607

NCAAB Spread

Florida Gulf Coast -3.5 -110

Lost: 63-69

Queens University of Charlotte at Florida Gulf Coast

Mon Mar 4 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Gulf Coast wins the game by more than 3 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on our With Or Without You analysis and lineup trends.
  • Florida Gulf Coast hosts Queens in the 7 vs. 8 game in the first round of the Atlantic Sun tonight.
  • FGCU's current lineup has been used for the last 12 games (other than senior night, when two quickly came off the bench), and over that span they are 9-3 ATS and -0.2 Game Score, compared to -8.0 Game Score average for the first 19 games.
  • Isaiah Thompson and Cyrus Largie had both missed games in the middle of the season, when the team struggled, and they are better with the current lineup, while the current spread is in line with the full season rating.

Pick published: Mar 4 5:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306662

NCAAB Spread

Belmont -10.5 -110

Won: 83-66

Evansville at Belmont

Sun Mar 3 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont wins the game by more than 10 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Sunday, and also a play based on our With or Without You analysis of player lineups and trends.
  • Looking only at the top half of games where Belmont's lineup/minutes distribution was most similar to the most recent games, Belmont's average Game Score is +7.4, versus +1.7 across all games.
  • Those similar games exclude games where Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Cade Tyson missed games, and where Isaiah Walker was starting and playing more minutes.
  • With the currrent lineup over the last 7 games (the only time all year that lineup has been used), Belmont is 6-1 ATS and the last 5 wins have all come by 14 or more points outright.

Pick published: Mar 3 8:53am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 846

NCAAB Spread

Gonzaga +2.5 -105

Won: 70-57

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's

Sat Mar 2 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our "With Or Without You" lineup analysis and review of teams.
  • St. Mary's is going for an undefeated WCC regular season, after beating Gonzaga by 2 on the road earlier this year, in a game where the Zags went only 3 of 14 beyond the arc, and still led all game until inside the final 4 minutes.
  • Gonzaga has been about 4 points better since they made a lineup switch to Ben Gregg over inefficient Dusty Stromer in the starting lineup in mid-January.
  • St. Mary's lost starter Joshua Jefferson, the best defensive rebounder, for the season three games ago. While they have been able to handle weaker opponents without him, this is not a deep team and this type of matchup is more likely to be impacted by his absence.

Pick published: Mar 2 8:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 801

NCAAB Spread

Southern California +4.5 -110

Won: 82-75

Southern California at Washington

Sat Mar 2 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and studying the teams.
  • USC has been a disappointment this year after having high preseason expectations. They have also battled a lot of injuries and lineup changes. When the preferred starting lineup of Collier/Ellis/Johnson/Rodman/Morgan have all started, USC is 8-3 ATS with an average rating of +14.3, and when they have started any other lineup, they are 5-12 ATS with an average rating of only +2.0.
  • USC has had this lineup for the last four games, tied for the longest such stretch with the same starters, and have beat Utah, lost to Colorado and failed to cover by only a point, then beat UCLA as a road dog and just lost by 3 at Washington State as +8 dog, after leading all game, having a 9-point lead with 10 minutes left, and never trailing by more than 4 all game.
  • So we think we are getting value on a USC team that is better with the current lineup healthy finally, with the power rating in line with their full season average across all lineups.

Pick published: Mar 2 8:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 695

NCAAB Over/Under

Air Force at Utah St. Under 137.5 -110

Won: 132 points

Fri Mar 1 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Utah State combine for fewer than 137.5 points on Friday, March 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Friday.

Pick published: Mar 1 12:09pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 892

NCAAB Spread

DePaul +19.5 -110

Lost: 58-91

DePaul at Xavier

Wed Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: DePaul wins the game or loses by fewer than 20 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • In addition, we like this play based on recent form and news.
  • Xavier coach Sean Miller has been rumored as a candidate to move to Ohio State after the Buckeyes fired Chris Holtmann on Feb. 14th. Xavier has played poorly in the last three games, and over the last 10 games, Xavier has an average power rating of only +5.7, compared to +13.4 in the first 17 games.
  • DePaul has been slightly better (by about 3 points on average) in games that point guard Chico Carter has played, though he has gone 0-10 from three-point range in the last three games since returning from a rib injury that caused him to miss 7 straight Big East games.

Pick published: Feb 27 5:04pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 701

NCAAB Over/Under

Bucknell at Loyola (MD) Over 131.5 -110

Lost: 114 points

Wed Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bucknell and Loyola (MD) combine for more than 131.5 points on Wednesday, February 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 27 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306519

NCAAB Spread

Utah St. -10.5 -110

Lost: 77-73

Utah St. at Fresno St.

Tue Feb 27 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game by more than 10 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-5 ATS (54.1%). Road favorites rated above 55.0%, like Utah State, have gone 19-10 ATS this year.
  • Fresno State is very thin, having lost two starters for the season in the last three weeks, and center Enoch Boakye has also missed the last two games and his status is unknown. If Boakye misses the game, Fresno State will have be playing walk-ons off the bench, and have no one taller than 6'7" playing.

Pick published: Feb 27 5:04pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 657

NCAAB Over/Under

Ball St. at Central Michigan Over 133.5 -115

Won: 150 points

Tue Feb 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State and Central Michigan combine for more than 133 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, rated at over 59%, making it the highest-rated model play of the last seven days. 

Pick published: Feb 26 4:56pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 605

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M-CC -12.0 -105

Push: 91-79

Texas A&M-CC at Houston Christian

Mon Feb 26 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M Corpus Christi wins the game by more than 12 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Monday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 170-144-4 ATS (54.1%). 
  • In the 14 games (including 10 of last 11) that Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played with their current starting lineup, they have a +4.4 average Game Score, versus -6.0 in the other 13 games.

Pick published: Feb 26 4:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306645

NCAAB Spread

Youngstown St. -5.5 -112

Won: 71-59

Youngstown St. at Green Bay

Sun Feb 25 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Youngstown State wins the game by more than 5 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • Green Bay's best player, Noah Reynolds, missed Friday's game against IPFW, where they had their worst performance of the year and lost by 26 as a 2-point favorite. (He also missed the first match against Youngstown, when Green Bay pulled a big upset as an 11.5-point dog).
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 169-141-4 ATS (54.5%). 

Pick published: Feb 25 11:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 845

NCAAB Over/Under

Army at Bucknell Over 123.5 -110

Lost: 95 points

Sun Feb 25 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Bucknell combine for more than 123 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Pick published: Feb 25 11:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306623

NCAAB Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Texas-El Paso Over 140.5 -105

Lost: 119 points

Sat Feb 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston and UTEP combine for more than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 787

NCAAB Over/Under

Central Michigan at Miami (OH) Over 132.5 -110

Won: 148 points

Sat Feb 24 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Michigan and Miami (Ohio) combine for more than 132 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 665

NCAAB Spread

High Point -11.5 -105

Won: 74-59

High Point at Charleston Southern

Sat Feb 24 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: High Point wins the game by more than 11 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Playable picks on road favorites so far this year are 166-137-4 ATS (54.7%). 

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 306571

NCAAB Spread

Baylor +2.5 -106

Lost: 76-82

Houston at Baylor

Sat Feb 24 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, playable picks on home underdogs are 20-12-1 ATS.
  • Houston is 1-5 ATS in Big 12 conference games in their first year in the conference, and have shown a strong performance split on opponent quality, playing 7.2 points worse after adjusting for expectations, when playing the top 16 toughest games on the schedule versus the 10 easiest opponents.

Pick published: Feb 24 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 608

NCAAB Spread

Saint Peter's +1.5 -108

Won: 70-65

Saint Peter's at Mount St. Mary's

Fri Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Peter's wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Saint Peter's is 12-4 ATS in games where Corey Washington, the team's most efficient offensive player, plays, and only 2-5 ATS without him. They have covered the last two games by 13 points each since his return from a 5-game absence.
  • Saint Peter's has an average power rating of -0.5 in games with Washington and -10.6 without him.

Pick published: Feb 23 2:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 873

NCAAB Over/Under

Central Conn. St. at Wagner Over 125.0 -108

Won: 145 points

Thu Feb 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Connecticut State and Wagner combine for more than 125 points on Thursday, Fedbruary 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Thursday.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306533

NCAAB Over/Under

Bucknell at Holy Cross Over 135.5 -110

Lost: 132 points

Wed Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bucknell and Holy Cross combine for more than 135.5 points on Wednesday, February 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 21 12:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 306505

NCAAB Over/Under

Wofford at Chattanooga Under 145.0 -102

Lost: 146 points

Wed Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford and Chattanooga combine for fewer than 145 points on Wednesday, February 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Wednesday.

Pick published: Feb 20 6:42pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 676

NCAAB Over/Under

Texas Christian at Texas Tech Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 163 points

Tue Feb 20 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 147 points on Tuesday, February 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Tuesday.

Pick published: Feb 20 12:31pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 640

NCAAB Spread

Miami (Pick) -110

Lost: 77-85

Miami at Boston College

Sat Feb 17 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game against Boston College on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Miami is not a deep team and has dealt with a lot of missed games among the starters with injury.
  • The current starting lineup of Nijel Pack, Wooga Poplar, Matthew Cleveland, KyShawn George and Norchad Omier have had only three games all year where all were in the starting lineup.
  • Freshman KyShawn George just missed all of one game and most of the other with injury, but returned to the lineup in the last game.
  • In the 10 games where George starts and plays at least 20 minutes, Miami's power rating is +14.1, compared to +7.4 in all other games, so there could be some value in Miami's lineup being better than their full season numbers.
  • Miami opponents have made 40% of threes (49-of-123) over the last five games, much higher than the full season rate of 31%, and provides another area of positive regression potential for Miami.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 695

NCAAB Over/Under

Louisiana State at South Carolina Under 144.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Sat Feb 17 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU and South Carolina combine for fewer than 145 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday, and the current FanDuel line of 144.5 is offering a full point of value relative to our consensus line.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 682

NCAAB Over/Under

Marquette at Connecticut Under 148.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Sat Feb 17 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marquette and Connecticut combine for fewer than 149 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is currently our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday. The FanDuel line of 148.5 is also a full point of value over our consensus line of 147.5.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 668

NCAAB Spread

Iowa State -7.5 -105

Won: 82-74

Texas Tech at Iowa State

Sat Feb 17 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Iowa State is a strong home team, 12-2 ATS at home this year, including last Saturday's Staff Pick over TCU.
  • Some model factors include Texas Tech's higher 3-point and free throw percentage make rate in the last seven games (versus full season) and Iowa State's defensive efficiency numbers, low opponent field goal attempts, and percentage of opponent attempts beyond the arc.

Pick published: Feb 16 4:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 602

NCAAB Moneyline

San Diego St. To Win -220

Won: 81-70

New Mexico at San Diego St.

Fri Feb 16 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State wins the game against New Mexico on Friday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • At the time of posting, our models currently have this as a strong play up to -235.

Pick published: Feb 15 6:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 896

NCAAB Over/Under

Minnesota at Purdue Under 146.5 -110

Lost: 160 points

Thu Feb 15 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Purdue combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Thursday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Pick published: Feb 15 12:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 778

NCAAB Spread

UCLA +1.5 -120

Won: 64-60

Colorado at UCLA

Thu Feb 15 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCLA wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB, at lines where UCLA is a one-point favorite at other books in early releases.
  • The DraftKings' line is providing extra line value at early release, with them as the underdog.
  • Since an embarrassing 90-44 loss at Utah in early January, UCLA is 7-1 SU, and 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming against Arizona.
  • UCLA's average Game Score over the last 8 games is +15.4 (closer to their preseason rating expectation) compared to only +2.1 over the first 16 games.
  • Freshman Brandon Williams has moved into the starting lineup over the last five games, and the team has continued its improved play, after starting 4 different players in that spot over the first 16 games of the season.

Pick published: Feb 14 5:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 802

NCAAB Over/Under

Merrimack at Stonehill Over 130.5 -110

Lost: 129 points

Thu Feb 15 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack and Stonehill combine for more than 130.5 points on Thursday, February 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Thursday).

Pick published: Feb 15 12:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 306541

NCAAB Over/Under

South Carolina at Auburn Under 137.5 -110

Lost: 162 points

Wed Feb 14 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina and Auburn combine for fewer than 137.5 points on Wednesday, February 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Pick published: Feb 14 12:48pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 700

NCAAB Over/Under

Jacksonville at Kennesaw St. Under 153.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Wed Feb 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Wednesday, February 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Wednesday).

Pick published: Feb 14 12:46pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 306518

NCAAB Spread

Penn St. +3.5 -110

Lost: 72-80

Michigan St. at Penn St.

Wed Feb 14 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Wednesday.
  • Penn State's leading scorer, Kanye Clary, missed a couple of games with a facial injury, and Penn State actually surged to two of their best performances. Veteran point guard Ace Baldwin (transfer from VCU) took over the full point guard duties and has had 29 assists in the last two games, and Clary came off the bench in the last two.
  • Penn State is 4-0 ATS the spread with the current lineup and has put up their two best Game Scores all year.

Pick published: Feb 14 5:18pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 656

NBA Moneyline

Kings To Win +160

Lost: 125-130

Kings at Suns

Tue Feb 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Kings beat the Suns on Tuesday, February 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Feb 13 8:40pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 507

NCAAB Over/Under

Florida State at Virginia Tech Under 151.5 -110

Lost: 158 points

Tue Feb 13 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida State and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 151.5 points on Tuesday, February 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today (Tuesday)

Pick published: Feb 13 12:09pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 644

NCAAB Over/Under

Georgetown at Creighton Under 150.5 -108

Lost: 166 points

Tue Feb 13 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown and Creighton combine for fewer than 150.5 points on Tuesday, February 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 12 6:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 630

NFL Player Prop

Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 12 rush yards

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brock Purdy rushes for more than 12 yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is similar to a prop we posted in our picks article, but without the H2H component with Patrick Mahomes. 
  • Purdy's rushing splits are heavily dependent on game script. When the 49ers are blowing teams out, he does not run. When it is a closer game, he does.
  • In the nine games the 49ers won by 14 or more points, Purdy ran only 15 total times for 33 yards.
  • In the nine games the 49ers lost, or won by less than 14 points, Purdy ran 35 times for 173 yards.
  • In this game with a 2-point spread, against a Chiefs team that rarely loses big with Mahomes at QB, we'll play on Purdy continuing his recent form on the ground (11 carries for 62 yards in the playoffs).

Pick published: Feb 11 1:36pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop

Travis Kelce to Score a TD +100

Lost: 0 TD

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Travis Kelce scores at least one TD in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "TD props" tab and the "Anytime Touchdown Scorer" link.
  • Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 playoff games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. When it turns to the postseason, the Chiefs turn to their best weapon in the red zone.
  • Our projections show slight value here at the +100 line available at FanDuel, with a 52.3% chance of scoring in this game.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Game Prop

Position Besides QB to Win Super Bowl MVP +200

Lost: Mahomes MVP

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Someone besides a QB will be selected as Super Bowl MVP.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Super Bowl MVP" tab and then scroll down past the individual player bets. 
  • A couple of years ago, we took a look at Super Bowl MVPs. One of the interesting things was the correlation between the Over/Under for the game and whether a QB won MVP. 
  • While 83% of SB MVPs have been quarterbacks when the pre-game Over/Under is 52.0 or higher, 60% of MVPs have been QBs when it is between 48.0 and 51.5 points, and 50% have been QBs when it has been 44.0 to 47.5 points.
  • Right now, the most common Over/Under is 47.5 points, and it has been hovering in that range all week.
  • So we think we are getting a little value at the +200 line on a non-QB winning, given the expected total and the amount of defensive and skill player talent that could garner the award in this game.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Prop

Chiefs Under 7.5 Players to Have a Reception -104

Lost: 8 players

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seven or fewer Kansas City Chiefs players will have a reception in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Receiving Props" tab and "Total Number of Kansas City Chiefs to Have a Reception."
  • For the full season, Kansas City has had at least 8 players record a reception in 15 of 19 games started by Patrick Mahomes. Why then, do we like the Under here?
  • It's taken most of the season, but Kansas City has started to consolidate the passing targets on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Isiah Pacheco has carried the backfield. Over the last four games with Mahomes starting, including the playoff matchups, the Under on this number would have hit three times. The one time it did not, six different players had exactly one catch, with three of those catching their only target of the game.
  • The offense has been better with more of the offense going through the Kelce and Rice combo, and we expect that trend to continue.
  • It also looks more likely that RB Jerick McKinnon (who was designated to return from IR) will not play, and WR Kadarius Toney will not be activate for the game. 

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop

George Kittle Over 49.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 4 yards

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: George Kittle has more than 49 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our featured favorite props in the Super Bowl betting article.
  • This particular prop is located under the "Player Props" tab and the George Kittle Props section.
  • Our projection for Kittle is 59.2 receiving yards in the Super Bowl.
  • Kittle typically becomes a bigger part of the game plan in games where the matchup is expected to be closer, and he shows up more prominently in big games.
  • Over the last two seasons, Kittle has averaged 65.0 receiving yards in games where the pre-game spread was 7 points or lower, and only 43.2 yards in the games with larger spreads.
  • The strength of the Chiefs' secondary is also the two starting cornerbacks, and Kansas City's relative weakness at rush defense could also open up big play opportunities down the middle of the field, and matched up on linebackers and safeties, an area that Kittle excels.

Pick published: Feb 8 11:12am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Moneyline

Chiefs To Win +110

Won: 25-22

49ers vs. Chiefs

Sun Feb 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • We highlighted some of our rationale for value on Kansas City as the game winner in our Super Bowl betting article. 
  • Our models are showing value at +119 on Kansas City, though that line is not typically available at US-based sportsbooks (it is at some offshores). We were waiting to see if we could find any better value until today in US markets, but this is the best available at BetMGM.
  • Some of our arguments/rationale for Kansas City is that while San Francisco has been the better team over the course of the full season, our ratings have Kansas City as the better side since after Thanksgiving, after the point at which SF all-pro safety Talanoa Hufanga was lost for the year, and the 49ers defense has been worse.
  • KC also concentrated the offense, increasing the share of snaps and targets to rookie WR Rashee Rice, and the team has played its best in the postseason.
  • Super Bowl teams that have played out of the Wild Card Round, often winning on the road, have a recent history of that improved form continuing in the Super Bowl, going 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1995.

Pick published: Feb 11 1:36pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 102

NCAAB Over/Under

Minnesota at Iowa Under 154.5 -110

Lost: 175 points

Sun Feb 11 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Iowa combine for fewer than 154.5 points on Sunday, February 12.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday.

Pick published: Feb 11 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 862

NCAAB Spread

Incarnate Word -3.5 -110

Lost: 83-86

Incarnate Word at Houston Christian

Sat Feb 10 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Incarnate Word wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • Houston Christian opponents have shot 62% from two-point range over the last three games, 

Pick published: Feb 10 11:06am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 306595

NCAAB Over/Under

Buffalo at Georgia Southern Under 149.5 -108

Lost: 163 points

Sat Feb 10 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Buffalo and Georgia Southern combine for fewer than 150 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 676

NCAAB Over/Under

New Orleans at Texas A&M Commerce Over 147.5 -106

Won: 172 points

Sat Feb 10 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans and Texas A&M Commerce combine for more than 147 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306571

NCAAB Spread

Iowa State -7.0 -110

Won: 71-59

Texas Christian at Iowa State

Sat Feb 10 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Top model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Iowa State is a high-pressure defense that defends the paint well, and creates turnovers. 46% of all FGA attempts against them are from beyond the arc.
  • Iowa State shows a pretty strong split based on whether the opponent tends to shoot a high rate of threes or not for the full season. Against teams that rank in the top 100 in three-point rate, they are only 3-4 ATS, but against teams ranked in the bottom 100 in three-point rate, like TCU, they are 9-1 ATS, and the only non-cover was the last home game against Kansas, when a last second bucket for Kansas got the backdoor cover by 0.5 point.
  • TCU has shot 43% from three in their last three games, a regression factor that is one of the model factors showing up.
  • Iowa State is a strong home team, 11-2 ATS at home this year.

Pick published: Feb 10 10:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 670

NFL Player Future

Dak Prescott to Win NFL MVP +800

Lost: 2nd place behind Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dak Prescott is selected as the NFL MVP at the end of the 2023 season.

Staff notes:

  • A few years ago, we published a look at MVP winners and performance in various team and stat categories. That was part of our analysis in identifying Patrick Mahomes as a value last year when he was not the betting market favorite.
  • The key categories, in order, are: team wins rank, total TDs (passing/rushing), Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank, Passer Rating Rank, Team Points Scored Rank, and Pass TD Rate Rank. The MVP winners at QB ranked on average at 3rd or better across those categories.
  • Dak Prescott actually ranks the highest, right now, across all these categories, well ahead of market favorite Jalen Hurts. Hurts ranks well below past winners in pass efficiency stats, and Prescott is the only QB who currently ranks top five in all of the most predictive MVP categories.
  • BetMGM (+800) is the best relative price, compared to FanDuel (+700) and DraftKings (+600) though we think the market is a little mispriced here.

Pick published: Nov 29 1:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Over/Under

San Jose St. at Colorado St. Under 144.5 -114

Won: 113 points

Fri Feb 9 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State and Colorado State combine for fewer than 143.5 points on Friday, February 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
  • Our models have had high confidence Under plays on 3 of the past 5 Colorado State games, going 3-0 on those plays.
  • We're posting Under 144.5 at -114 odds, but this is available at 143.5 with -110 odds at other books. That's also a good play, according to our models. With about 2% of college basketbal totals pushing at whole numbers in this range, getting a full extra point for the -114 is worth it.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 890

NCAAB Over/Under

San Diego St. at Air Force Under 134.5 -110

Lost: 141 points

Tue Feb 6 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego State and Air Force combine for fewer than 134.5 points on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 5 6:03pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 662

NCAAB Over/Under

Boise St. at Colorado St. Under 141.0 -115

Won: 137 points

Tue Feb 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and Colorado State combine for fewer than 141 points on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Feb 5 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 650

NCAAB Moneyline

Texas To Win -130

Lost: 65-70

Iowa State at Texas

Tue Feb 6 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Iowa State on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The -130 line is slightly better than our consensus from global books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -138.

Pick published: Feb 5 6:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 642

NBA Moneyline

Magic To Win +134

Lost: 95-121

Magic at Heat

Tue Feb 6 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Magic beat the Heat on Tuesday, February 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Feb 6 6:35pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 577

NCAAB Over/Under

Colorado St. at Fresno St. Under 139.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Sat Feb 3 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State and Fresno State combine for fewer than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.
  • The FanDuel line is providing a 0.5 point of value compared to the consensus line across sportsbooks.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 820

NCAAB Over/Under

Cincinnati at Texas Tech Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 147 points

Sat Feb 3 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is a top-rated college basketball O/U model play for today.
  • The FanDuel line of 142.5 is providing a point of value compared to the consensus line across books, but our play is rated at 141.5, so if that is all you have available, you can play that number.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 746

NCAAB Moneyline

Southern Miss To Win +115

Lost: 55-60

Southern Miss at Texas State

Sat Feb 3 • 5:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Miss wins the game against Texas State on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated spread and moneyline pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Our top-rated moneyline picks are +16.1 units (45 games) so far this season.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 723

NCAAB Spread

Troy -2.5 -110

Won: 78-74

Troy at Georgia St.

Sat Feb 3 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Troy wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Saturday in CBB, rated above 55%, and the BetMGM line is 0.5 of value compared to the consensus we are seeing.
  • Spread picks rated at over 55% are 37-29-1 so far this year (56%)

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 675

NCAAB Spread

Southern Illinois -2.5 -106

Won: 74-71

Southern Illinois at Illinois-Chicago

Sat Feb 3 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Illinois wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated spread pick, rated above 55% in both our Decision Tree and Similar Games model, and is also a top-rated moneyline pick if you would rather play the ML.
  • Illinois-Chicago is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after an 8-2 ATS start in their first 10.

Pick published: Feb 3 10:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 631

NCAAB Over/Under

San Jose St. at Nevada Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 150 points

Fri Feb 2 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State and Nevada combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Friday, February 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Feb 2 12:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 890

NCAAB Over/Under

San Diego at San Francisco Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 174 points

Thu Feb 1 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego and San Francisco combine for fewer than 150.5 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Feb 1 12:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

NCAAB Over/Under

Idaho State at Northern Colorado Under 148.5 -115

Lost: 177 points

Thu Feb 1 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Idaho State and Northern Colorado combine for fewer than 148.5 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 31 7:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 774

NCAAB Moneyline

Morehead St. To Win -190

Won: 68-49

Morehead St. at Tennessee St.

Thu Feb 1 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State beats Tennessee State on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The -190 line is also a good value compared to some other U.S. books. Our models have it as a strong play up to -193.

Pick published: Feb 1 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 781

NCAAB Over/Under

Bellarmine at Kennesaw St. Under 150.0 -115

Lost: 191 points

Thu Feb 1 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bellarmine and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 150 points on Thursday, February 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 31 7:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306546

NBA Moneyline

Nets To Win +140

Lost: 120-136

Suns at Nets

Wed Jan 31 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Nets beat the Suns on Wednesday, January 31.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Jan 31 7:34pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 582

NCAAB Over/Under

Northern Iowa at Bradley Under 138.5 -112

Lost: 154 points

Wed Jan 31 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northern Iowa and Bradley combine for fewer than 138.5 points on Wednesday, January 31.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Pick published: Jan 30 7:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 702

NCAAB Over/Under

Fresno St. at UNLV Under 141.5 -115

Lost: 147 points

Tue Jan 30 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State and UNLV combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Tuesday, January 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Tuesday, at the consensus line of 141.0. The 141.5 with -115 payout odds it roughly the same as 141.0 with -110 odds, which is also available at several books.

Pick published: Jan 30 12:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 660

NCAAB Over/Under

Oklahoma State at Kansas Under 144.5 -112

Won: 137 points

Tue Jan 30 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State and Kansas combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Tuesday, January 30.

Staff notes:

  • Be careful: there is also an Oklahoma at Kansas State game today, with a total in the 140s. Make sure you are betting on the correct game.
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today, at the consensus line of 144.0. FanDuel is offering 144.5 at a -112 payout, which is a slightly better value than 144.0 at a -110 payout, which is available at some other books.

Pick published: Jan 30 12:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 652

NCAAB Over/Under

Temple at East Carolina Over 135.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sun Jan 28 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Temple and East Carolina combine for more than 135 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Sunday, at the consensus line of 136.0. Caesars is offering the best line available, but can play to 136.5.

Pick published: Jan 28 11:37am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 861

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Ravens Over 44.0 -115

Lost: 27 points

Sun Jan 28 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Baltimore combine for more than 44 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the AFC Championship, rated at 54.5% at 44.5 points. 
  • You can play this elsewhere at 44.5, but you can currently get at DraftKings at 44.0 -115, and we think that's the slightly better play, considering that 44 points is one of the most common scores hit and can get you a push, as 3.8% of games from 2017-2021 ended on that total
  • Some of the Over model factors include Kansas City's low sack rate on offense, Kansas City's low turnover rate forced on defense in recent games plus Baltimore's low interception rate, and Baltimore's high rush rate and rush yards per game.

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 319

NFL Spread

Ravens -3.5 -115

Lost: 10-17

Chiefs at Ravens

Sun Jan 28 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game by more than three points against Kansas City.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (54%) at -4, and you can currently get -3.5 at some books.
  • Some model factors include Baltimore's defensive numbers, high rushing yards per game and Kansas City's low rate of rushing first downs. 

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 320

NCAAB Over/Under

Cal Poly SLO at Hawaii Over 125.5 -110

Won: 156 points

Sat Jan 27 • 11:59pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Poly and Hawaii combine for more than 125 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 831

NCAAB Moneyline

Liberty To Win -225

Lost: 62-73

Liberty at Jacksonville St.

Sat Jan 27 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Liberty wins the game against Jacksonville State on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a highly-rated moneyline play for Saturday.
  • Over the last three seasons, our highest-rated moneyline plays have gone 73-58 SU for +27.8 units. 

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 739

NCAAB Over/Under

South Carolina Upstate at Gardner-Webb Under 142.5 -112

Lost: 145 points

Sat Jan 27 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SC Upstate and Gardner-Webb combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306582

NCAAB Over/Under

Detroit Mercy at Green Bay Over 138.5 -105

Won: 142 points

Sat Jan 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Detroit and Green Bay combine for more than 138 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 27 11:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 625

NCAAB Spread

Manhattan +8.0 -110

Lost: 70-82

Manhattan at Canisius

Fri Jan 26 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Manhattan wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Our roster analysis also shows that Manhattan finally ended a five-game non-cover streak (and not covering 7 of 8), but that the starting lineup they used in last game finally played together for first time, after a stretch where multiple starters missed games and the team has dealt with lots of inconsistency.
  • Meanwhile, Canisius has failed to cover seven straight now, and has lost each of the last three, performing far worse than their season averages. Starter Siem Uijtendaal missed the last two games and his status is uncertain for tonight.

Pick published: Jan 26 3:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 883

NCAAB Over/Under

William & Mary at Hofstra Under 144.5 -110

Won: 119 points

Thu Jan 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: William & Mary and Hofstra combine for fewer than 144.5 points on Thursday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 24 5:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 764

NCAAB Moneyline

Gardner-Webb To Win +180

Won: 76-64

Gardner-Webb at Longwood

Wed Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gardner Webb beats Longwood on Wednesday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The +180 line at BetMGM is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +170.

Pick published: Jan 24 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306515

NCAAB Over/Under

Murray St. at Bradley Under 141.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Wed Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Murray State and Bradley combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Wednesday, January 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).

Pick published: Jan 23 6:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 680

NCAAB Over/Under

Boston College at Virginia Tech Under 148.5 -110

Won: 147 points

Tue Jan 23 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston College and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 148.5 points on Tuesday, January 23.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 23 12:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 656

NCAAB Over/Under

Texas A&M Commerce at Lamar Under 147.5 -110

Won: 141 points

Mon Jan 22 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M-Commerce and Lamar combine for fewer than 147.5 points on Monday, January 22..

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 22 6:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306644

NFL Moneyline

Chiefs To Win +130

Won: 27-24

Chiefs at Bills

Sun Jan 21 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against Buffalo in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for the Divisional Round.
  • Kansas City has rarely been an underdog with Patrick Mahomes at QB in his career, but are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS when getting points, including the SB win last year over Philadelphia.
  • Since 2002, underdogs of less than a field goal (KC is +2.5 currently) have a winning record in the playoffs at 23-22 (26-18-1 ATS). We have moneyline records back to 2010 in the playoffs, and since then, underdogs of 2.5 or fewer points are 16-12 SU for +6.4 units.

Pick published: Jan 19 10:00am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 317

NFL Spread

Buccaneers +6.5 -108

Lost: 23-31

Buccaneers at Lions

Sun Jan 21 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and matchup analysis.
  • Last week, we had a similar Staff Pick on the Rams against the Lions, The primary rationale was the poor performance of teams with poor passing defense numbers and similer teams to Detroit in the playoffs. Those concerns played out, but the Lions still won as the Rams failed to convert yards to points, settled for field goals, and made suboptimal coaching decisions, while outgaining the Lions by nearly 100 yards.
  • Detroit just allowed 357 passing yards and a 119.8 passer rating to Matthew Stafford in the Wild Card Round win, and that's the highest passer rating ever allowed by a team that advanced in the playoffs.
  • The five other teams who allowed the highest passer rating, and won, in the Wild Card Round went 0-5 both SU and ATS in the next game, losing by an average of 26 points in the Divisional Round.
  • Those pass defense numbers in the Wild Card Round were bad, but Detroit was near the bottom of the NFL in the regular season, ranking 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in TD passes allowed, and 27th in passing yards allowed in the regular season. So we will grab the points against a team with a very susceptible pass defense, when teams fitting that profile have generally failed to cover in the postseason.

Pick published: Jan 19 10:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 315

NCAAB Moneyline

Texas Tech To Win -130

Won: 85-78

Brigham Young at Texas Tech

Sat Jan 20 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game against BYU on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model and spread pick for Saturday.
  • Texas Tech has had an average rating of +15.5 in the last 9 games, since they lost Devan Cambridge for the season and switched to the current lineup, compared to+9.9 rating for the first 8 games.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 750

NCAAB Spread

Presbyterian +11.5 -110

Won: 70-80

Presbyterian at Longwood

Sat Jan 20 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Presbyterian wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread pick for Saturday in CBB, and the highest-rated Decision Tree model play.
  • It is also rated at 59% in our Similar Games Model.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars.

Rot# 306571

NCAAB Over/Under

Wofford at UNC Greensboro Under 141.5 -115

Won: 141 points

Sat Jan 20 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford and UNC Greensboro combine for fewer than 141.5 points on Saturday, January 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Jan 19 8:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 718

NCAAB Over/Under

Maine at NJIT Over 136.0 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sat Jan 20 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maine and NJIT combine for more than 136 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306561

NCAAB Over/Under

Baylor at Texas Under 146.5 -105

Lost: 148 points

Sat Jan 20 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor and Texas combine for fewer than 147 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for Saturday.

Pick published: Jan 20 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 616

NCAAB Over/Under

Louisville at Wake Forest Under 152.5 -110

Lost: 155 points

Sat Jan 20 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Louisville and Wake Forest combine for fewer than 152.5 points on Saturday, January 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Jan 19 8:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 620

NCAAB Over/Under

Eastern Washington at Weber St. Under 146.5 -110

Lost: 158 points

Thu Jan 18 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington and Weber State combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Thursday, January 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 18 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 812

NCAAB Over/Under

Texas Rio Grande Valley at Texas-Arlington Under 157.0 -110

Lost: 164 points

Thu Jan 18 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UT Rio Grande Valley and UT Arlington combine for fewer than 157 points on Thursday, January 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 17 7:42pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 786

NCAAB Over/Under

Wichita St. at Florida Atlantic Under 153.5 -110

Lost: 163 points

Thu Jan 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wichita State and Florida Atlantic combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Thursday, January 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Thursday).

Pick published: Jan 17 7:39pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 756

NCAAB Over/Under

Texas-San Antonio at Tulsa Over 153.5 -110

Won: 185 points

Wed Jan 17 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTSA and Tulsa combine for more than 153.5 points on Wednesday, January 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 17 12:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 711

NCAAB Over/Under

St. John's at Seton Hall Under 146.5 -110

Won: 145 points

Tue Jan 16 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. John's and Seton Hall combine for fewer than 146.5 points on Tuesday, January 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 16 1:53pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 642

NFL Spread

Rams +3.0 -104

Won: 23-24

Rams at Lions

Sun Jan 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a Staff Pick based on review of the matchup.
  • In our "similar team" analysis for playoff teams, Detroit's most comparable teams performed poorly, with a weighted ATS% in the first playoff game of 34%.
  • The biggest factor is Detroit's defensive rank, particularly their pass defense, where they rank 27th in passing yards allowed, and 29th in net passing yards allowed per attempt (6.7), worst among playoff teams.
  • Since 2010, teams with a net pass yards per attempt allowed per attempt of 6.5 or worse are 3-9 SU and 3-9 ATS at home in the Wild Card Round, with the most recent being last year's Minnesota loss at home to the Giants.
  • The Rams also are better than their raw rating, if we account for the games Stafford was injured and missed. Further, the Rams were also worse without RB Kyren Williams (some which corresponded to Stafford being out.) With Williams and Stafford both in the lineup, the Rams are +5.4 (compared to -5.3 overall, and +2.3 for full season average).

Pick published: Jan 12 12:18pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 149

NCAAB Over/Under

Rider at Marist Over 132.5 -110

Won: 143 points

Sun Jan 14 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rider and Marist combine for more than 132 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 14 10:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 829

NCAAB Over/Under

UAB at Florida Atlantic Under 152.0 -110

Lost: 159 points

Sun Jan 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB and FAU combine for fewer than 152 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Jan 14 10:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 816

NCAAB Spread

Pepperdine -1.5 -110

Won: 83-77

Pepperdine at San Diego

Sat Jan 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pepperdine wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Some of the key model factors include Pepperdine opponent's high three-point % for the season (37%) and opponents shooting a percentage on free throws in recent games.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 793

NCAAB Over/Under *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

Southern California at Colorado Over 151.5 -110

Lost: 126 points

Sat Jan 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC and Colorado combine for more than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • ****NOTE: this was mistakenly posted as an Over instead of Under, per our models****
  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 799

NCAAB Spread

Mississippi State -1.5 -108

Lost: 74-82

Alabama at Mississippi State

Sat Jan 13 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Mississippi State recently got center Tolu Smith back from an offseason foot injury, and beat Tennessee mid-week in his first start of the season, which is why our power ratings would show Alabama as the favorite in this game (since most of the game results were without Smith).

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 780

NFL Spread

Browns -2.0 -110

Lost: 14-45

Browns at Texans

Sat Jan 13 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game by more than 2 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a Staff Pick based on team analysis and trends.
  • The Cleveland Browns have started five (!!) different QBs this year, but have been playing better on offense with veteran Joe Flacco in his five starts. He's averaged 7.9 yards per pass (the other 4 averaged 6.4) and thrown 13 TD passes (11 combined for the others).
  • Teams with a QB who didn't start all year have provided playoff value in recent years. Since 2010, when the starting QB in a playoff matchup did not start in at least 4 of that team's games in the regular season, that team is 25-14-3 ATS.
  • The Texans' pass defense is a weak link, as they rank poorly in net yards per pass allowed (6.5 yards per pass), second-worst only to Detroit among playoff teams. Home teams in the Wild Card Round who have given up 6.5 net yards per pass or worse in the regular season are 3-9 SU and ATS since 2010.
  • C.J. Stroud has been a part of a wonderful revival in Houston as the second overall pick, but rookie QBs have a poor track record in their first start, and he's going against the team that ranks #1 in passing yards allowed. 
  • Going all the way back to 1978, teams with a 1st and 2nd round rookies making their playoff debut (so we are excluding the backups forced into starts) have gone 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS in the first game, underperforming the spread by an average of 6.3 points. All five top rookies to make the playoffs since 2011 have lost and failed to cover in their first playoff start.

Pick published: Jan 12 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 141

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -3.0 -110

Won: 97-92

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Sat Jan 13 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Texas A&M got off to a strong start to the season, but has struggled to 9-6, dealing with lineup inconsistency, extreme poor shooting, and guard Tyrece Radford missing several games.
  • A&M ranks 354th in three-point shooting percentage while Kentucky is 8th-best, providing a regression opportunity with both teams at extreme ends.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 658

NCAAB Over/Under

Syracuse at North Carolina Over 157.0 -110

Won: 170 points

Sat Jan 13 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Syracuse and North Carolina combined for more than 157 points.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
  • This line of of 157.0 is higher than what we are currently showing as playable on our picks page (156.0) but this is the best line at the large US-based books. Given the positive line movement in our favor on this game since opening we still think it's a playable option, up to 157.5.

Pick published: Jan 13 10:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 613

NCAAB Over/Under

Portland at Saint Mary's Under 135.5 -110

Lost: 147 points

Thu Jan 11 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland and St. Mary's combine for fewer than 135.5 points on Thursday, January 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.
  • This line of 135.5 is a half point higher at Caesars than at most other books. We think it's playable at 135 as well.

Pick published: Jan 11 12:07pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 838

NCAAB Over/Under

Winthrop at Presbyterian Under 141.0 -108

Lost: 152 points

Wed Jan 10 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Winthrop and Presbyterian combine for fewer than 141 points on Wednesday, January 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our highest rated college basketball O/U model play for today.

Pick published: Jan 10 2:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306512

NCAAB Over/Under

Yale at Brown Over 136.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Tue Jan 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale and Brown combine for more than 136.5 points on Tuesday, January 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 9 12:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 631

NFL Player Future

Brandin Cooks Under 775.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 16 games, 657 yards

Dallas Cowboys

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Brandin Cooks will finish with fewer than 776 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for Brandin Cooks is 626 receiving yards, nearly 150 yards of value.
  • Our projection is built based on team overall projection and projected role, player similarity comparisons, and market data from fantasy football drafts.
  • Brandin Cooks is currently WR42 in Underdog Best Ball Rankings, but has the same yardage prop total as Christian Kirk (WR27) and only 25 yards under Michael Pittman (WR28) showing a potential mis-price on Cooks value relative to the fantasy market data.
  • Optimism on Cook's role as the WR2 in Dallas is driving some of this optimism, but our "similar players" analysis, which also incorporates players with similar recent production, age, and market draft value, is much lower on Cooks. 
  • Of the top 20 most similar players, only four went over this total, and none of the 12 most similar reached 775 yards (29-31 year old receivers who saw a similar dropoff to Cooks last year, and were drafted in a similar range).

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Davante Adams Under 1300.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 17 games, 1144 yards

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Davante Adams finishes with fewer than 1301 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Davante Adams is 1166 receiving yards in 2023.
  • Adams has put up more than 1,300 yards receiving in the last three seasons, which is why this total is higher.
  • Adams' total is equal to Tyreek Hill's at DraftKings, and only behind Justin Jefferson (and ahead of Ja'Marr Chase). Those other three guys are the top three wide receivers being drafted, while Adams' fantasy market ADP is at WR9.
  • Our similar player analysis also shows a risk of injury/drop-off as other elite wide receivers have slowed at about this age (most recently, Julio Jones at age 31). 
  • This is also an off-market line, as FanDuel has it at 1200.5. We don't see value at that FanDuel line but do at this higher number.

Pick published: Jun 23 4:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Broncos Under 8.5 Season Wins -110

Won: 8-9

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Denver Broncos win fewer than 9 games in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Denver is 7.8 wins, and we give Denver a 60.3% chance of finishing with 8 or fewer wins.
  • Denver finished at 5-12 a year ago, and was dead last in points scored in the NFL. This large projected win total is due to an expected bounceback with Sean Payton taking over as head coach.
  • We still like the value on the Under here because of the number of outs. Those include the tough schedule, the possibility that Russell Wilson is in real decline at age 35, and that Payton's impact could be overvalued.
  • Wilson showed signs of decline his last year in Seattle, and then followed it up with the worst statistical year of his career.
  • Since 2000, Super Bowl coaches who took at least a year off before returning to coaching are 4-6 on win total overs, averaging 6.3 wins (versus 7.7 average win total).

Pick published: Jul 10 1:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Courtland Sutton Under 725.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 16 games, 772 yards

Denver Broncos

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Courtland Sutton has fewer than 726 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for Courtland Sutton is 637 yards, nearly 90 yards of under value.
  • Sutton is currently WR47 in the Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, but his yardage total at Caesars is 125 more yards than Rashod Bateman and 200 more than Elijah Moore, the two receivers closest to him in the rankings.
  • Nine of Sutton's 12 most similar player comps by age, recent production and market ranking went under 725 receiving yards, several going well under, and 6 of the 7 most similar went under.
  • Sutton may not feel that old, but he turns 28 this season, and has not been as explosive or productive since an ACL tear in 2020, playing in 32 of a possible 34 games over the last two years but only averaging about 50 receiving yards a game as a clear starter.
  • Sutton faces increased target competition, as Jerry Jeudy has emerged as the far more likely top receiver in Denver, the team drafted Marvin Mims and Tim Patrick returns from missing all of last year, Denver added a high-volume receiving back in Samaje Perine, and tight end Greg Dulcich is a potential second-year breakout candidate.

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Russell Wilson Under 24.5 Passing Touchdowns +100

Lost: 15 GS, 26 TDs

Denver Broncos

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Russell Wilson throws fewer than 25 touchdown passes in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Russell Wilson is 20.8 touchdown passes in 2023, over three touchdown passes worth of value.
  • Last year, Wilson threw only 16 TD passes (a career-low) in 15 starts. While there is some optimism about Wilson with the Broncos hiring head coach Sean Payton, we still see under value here.
  • Our projections are based on team projections tied to win totals and recent stats, as well as for QBs, some player similarity performances based on age.
  • Since 2010, there have been 14 QBs who were in their 30's and dropped to fewer than 1.3 TD passes per game in a season. Only three of the 14 managed at least 22 TD passes the next year (giving some leeway because of the extra 17th game compared to a lot of those players). 
  • While we think Wilson could bounce back under Payton, this number is still high for a veteran who showed signs of decline the last two years and will be 35 this season.

 

Pick published: Jun 29 5:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 625.5 Receiving Yards +105

Won: 16 games, 315 yards

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Marquez Valdes-Scantling finishes with fewer than 626 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Valdes-Scantling is 439 yards, nearly 200 yards of under value.
  • Valdes-Scantling finished last year with 687 receiving yards while playing all 17 games, on an offense that led the NFL in passing yards (8th most all-time). 
  • He is the 4th KC wide receiver by best ball average draft position, and faces a lot of potential competition including Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross, and Justin Watson as an outside receiver. 
  • As a result, there are a lot of outs to this under, including injury, the offense being slightly less explosive overall, and Valdes-Scantling losing snaps and targets to younger competition.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Keenan Allen Under 85.5 Receptions -110

Lost: 13 games, 108 rec.

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Keenan Allen has fewer than 86 receptions in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Allen is 76 receptions, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
  • Allen is 31 years old this season, and is coming off a year when he managed only 10 games played with hamstring injuries.
  • The team drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round, introducing more target competition to the offense.
  • Allen's comparables, which consist of similarly-aged players who were being drafted around WR18, had only one that finished with at least 86 catches (out of the top 12) and three others that were at 80 receptions (in a 16-game season) and the median catch total was 72 for the group.

Pick published: Jul 28 3:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

DJ Chark Jr. Under 725.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 15 games, 525 yards

Carolina Panthers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: D.J. Chark has fewer than 726 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our fantasy projection for D.J. Chark is 575 yards, about 150 yards of under value. 
  • Chark signed a one-year deal with the Panthers this offseason, joining a crowded group looking to emerge with Carolina, after the team traded WR D.J. Moore to Chicago as part of the deal to acquire the first overall pick.
  • This is an Under play based on what looks like a mis-price of Chark relative to the market, and playing against the uncertainty in Carolina with the receiving situation, and how good the passing game will be with Bryce Young at QB as a rookie.
  • In Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Rankings, D.J. Chark is WR66, very similar to his WR62 rank in our PPR projections where we project him for 575 yards.
  • The Carolina wide receiver situation has veteran signings Chark and Adam Thielen, a second-round pick of Jonathan Mingo, and third-year receiver Terrace Marshall.
  • The fantasy market has Mingo and Thielen ahead of Chark, while our similar player analysis prefers both Mingo and Marshall based on age and performance of similar comps.
  • Regardless, it's a wide open situation, and it's far from certain that Chark emerges as the top receiver, or one of the top two, and he also has a lengthy injury history and is now age 27.
  • In a review of all teams in the last decade that had a top 10 pick at QB start as a rookie for majority of games, those 16 teams only produced 14 total WRs that got over 725 yards receiving. Only two (those with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert at QB, and with Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd and Keenan Allen/Mike Williams) had two different receivers from the same team hit that mark.
  • So we see some serious under value and outs where the Panthers passing game may not produce any WRs that hit that mark, and further, Chark is far from certain to be the one that emerges.

Pick published: Jun 1 5:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Team Future

Eagles Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins -110

Won: 11-6

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Philadelphia Eagles win fewer than 12 games in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We project the Philadelphia for 10.7 wins in 2023, and give them a 60.9% chance of finishing with 11 or fewer wins.
  • This is a slightly off-market line, as most books have the Eagles at 10.5 with higher juice on the over. BetMGM for example is at 10.5 -150/+125. So we like this play specifically if catching the 11.5 number, and see slight value on the 10.5 line at most books.
  • Philadelphia was one of the healthier teams in 2022 as measured by adjusted games lost, helping fuel their run to the Super Bowl.
  • The Eagles also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs.
  • Teams like Philadelphia, who have a much higher volume of rushing TDs and rushing attempts compared to passing, tend to regress at a higher rate than teams built on higher volume passing (like Kansas City and Cincinnati) and while the market is somewhat accounting for this, there is still some potential value on playing against the Eagles, who benefited from some extreme game scripts a year ago.
  • Philadelphia played the 24th-most difficult schedule in 2022, and caught a schedule with a lot of bad quarterbacks and offenses a year ago, something else that should regress in 2023, as we currently project them with the 7th-most difficult schedule with matchups against the balanced AFC East and Kansas City in the non-conference games.

Pick published: May 17 3:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Jalen Hurts Over 21.5 Touchdown Passes -116

Won: 17 GS, 23 TD

Philadelphia Eagles

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts throws more than 21 TD passes in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on Jalen Hurts is 24.0 TD passes in 2022, about 2.5 TD passes of value.
  • We project some positive regression for Philadelphia in the passing game in terms of second half attempts and TD passes. Last year, the Eagles played with big leads in the second half of lots of games, and Hurts rarely passed late. He ended up throwing 22 TD passes last year (in 15 games) but 14 of those came in the first half of games, for 64% of his pass TDs coming before halftime.
  • For perspective, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert have averaged throwing 54% of their TD passes in the first half, and Hurts himself threw 55% of his career TD passes in the first half before last year.
  • The Eagles (25 TD passes, 32 rush TDs) were very rush TD heavy a year ago playing with those big leads, and while they will still score a lot of rush TDs, we see that balancing out a bit more with a tougher schedule in 2023.

Pick published: Aug 10 4:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Future

Daniel Jones Over 3200.5 Passing Yards -112

Lost: injured, 6 GS, 909 yards

New York Giants

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Daniel Jones passes for more than 3200 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Daniel Jones is 3,603 passing yards in 2023.
  • Daniel Jones passed for a career-low 200 yards per game in 2022 (while throwing for just over 3,200 yards) as the New York Giants' receiving group was decimated. That forced him to become even more of a runner, as he ran for over 700 yards last season.
  • We see several positive regression signs for the passing game volume, as the team acquired TE Darren Waller, drafted Jalin Hyatt, and acquired Parris Campbell, to go with the return of second-year player Wan'Dale Robinson (only 6 games played as a rookie). 
  • While no one will confuse that with an elite receiving corps, it's a massive potential upgrade and one that should allow Jones to return to a more normal passing distribution.

Pick published: May 23 7:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Team Future

Giants to have a winning record +190

Lost: 6-11

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants finish the 2023 regular season with more wins than losses.

Staff notes:

  • This prop can be found in the NFL section under "Team Futures" and then the "Winning Record" tab.
  • The break-even percentage for this prop is 34.5% chance, and our projections give the Giants a 40.4% chance of 9 or more wins in 2023.
  • The market is expecting some regression from the Giants after they made the playoffs last year at 9-7-1 in head coach Brian Daboll's first year.
  • We like the value on this prop because the Giants should be better in the passing offense this season. Last year, they did it with smoke and mirrors on offense at receiver and tight end.
  • This year, the team has added TE Darren Waller, WR Parris Campbell, drafted WR Jalin Hyatt, and had WR Wan'Dale Robinson only play 6 games because of injury. The team's leading receiver last season, Darius Slayton, is still on the roster but is 4th on the depth chart.
  • Brian Daboll has shown himself to be a good offensive coach, manufacturing offense a year ago without any WR depth, and this is a play on him expanding the offense with all the additions.

Pick published: Jul 10 1:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Trevor Lawrence Over 3875.5 Passing Yards -112

Won: 16 GS, 4016 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Trevor Lawrence passes for more than 3875 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Trevor Lawrence passing yards is 4,245, more than 350 yards of value.
  • Lawrence passed for 4,113 yards in 2022 while playing every game.
  • We project a slight uptick in his per-game passing production in 2023, based on our similar teams projections and based on his age and production last year. 
  • We also see other reasons to project a passing volume increase, including that Jacksonville's increase in passing volume over the second half of last season was masked by playing with the lead more (they averaged 2.0 more pass attempts over the last 10 games compared to the first 9, while going 7-3 in the last 10 and 3-6 in the first nine). 
  • The team also gets WR Calvin Ridley from his year-long suspension, giving the Jaguars a better receiving group overall with Ridley joining Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones.

Pick published: May 23 7:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Future

Travis Etienne Jr. Under 950.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 17 games, 1008 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Travis Etienne rushes for fewer than 951 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Etienne is 868 rushing yards in 2023.
  • Last year, the Jaguars got rid of James Robinson after Week 6, and over the final 12 weeks, other than a week where he left the game early with an injury against Baltimore, Etienne got a really high workload. He accounted for over 80% of the team's running back rushes in games he played more than one quarter. 
  • The Jaguars had a lack of depth at running back a year ago, but drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round. Early reports are that Bigsby has looked really good at mini-camp.
  • So we project that while Etienne will still be the top option, the team will be more willing to give Bigsby carries to keep him fresh. 
  • Etienne also played every game a year ago, and averaged 5.1 yards per rush, so this Under can also hit with either worse health luck, and regression in yards per carry, in addition to reduced workload.

Pick published: Jun 23 4:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Raheem Mostert Under 525.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 15 games, 1012 yards

Miami Dolphins

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Raheem Mostert rushes for fewer than 526 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Raheem Mostert is 404 rushing yards.
  • We also think there is value here based on the potential for the Dolphins signing Dalvin Cook, who was released by the Vikings.
  • Mostert missed nearly all of the 2021 season, before bouncing back with nearly 900 yards last season as the lead back for Miami.
  • However, he is now 31 years old, and the team spent an early pick on Devone Achane, is rumored to be in the mix for Cook, and Jeff Wilson also joined the team mid-season last year and averaged over 50 yards a game, making for a very crowded situation compared to early last year.
  • Of the 12 most comparable players to Mostert by age, production, and market ranking (ADP), only three of them went over 525 rushing yards the next season.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Rachaad White Under 750.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 17 games, 990 yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Rachaad White finishes with fewer than 751 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on White is 607 rushing yards, nearly 150 of rushing Under value.
  • Rachaad White had fairly mediocre rushing efficiency and per-play stats last year, but is being boosted up because of a perceived lack of competiton for touches in Tampa Bay.
  • In our similarity analysis, his comps (2nd year backs going in the same ADP range and rookie rate stats) performed poorly, with 10 of the 12 finishing with under 550 rushing yards.
  • Reports yesterday out of Tampa Bay were that undrated free agent rookie Sean Tucker, who fell in the draft cycle because of health concerns, was impressing coaches and was splitting first team reps with White.
  • Given White's poor comparable player performances that suggest he is vulnerable to being overvalued, along with these reports of an emerging rookie backup who is likely a better pure rusher, we see Under value on White here in a role closer to a platoon on a poor offensive team with Baker Mayfield now at QB.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Alvin Kamara Under 600.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 13 games, 694 yards

New Orleans Saints

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Alvin Kamara finishes with fewer than 601 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Alvin Kamara is 475 rushing yards, 125 yards of Under value.
  • This prop was finally posted after Kamara's suspension of three games was announced, and that suspension is accounted for in the line.
  • We still see Under value here because of Kamara's likely 2023 role upon his return for suspension.
  • In the last two years, Kamara has finished with over 200 rush attempts and over 800 rush yards, and had far fewer receptions than earlier in his career. But his primary backup was 32/33-year old Mark Ingram both seasons, and the Saints' second-leading rusher both years was "tight end" Taysom Hill.
  • The Saints have addressed that lack of depth by signing Jamaal Williams from Detroit, and drafting rookie Kendre Miller from TCU in the third round. Both project as more rushers than receivers, allowing Kamara to return to more of his pre-2021 role.
  • Those other two will have a chance to impress in the first three weeks with Kamara out, and we think the plan here is more of a committee approach when it comes to rush attempts, with Kamara freed up to be a higher volume receiver.
  • This same line is available at DraftKings, but the juice on Under is -130, so shop for your best line.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Team Future

Saints to Miss the Playoffs +165

Won: 9-8, missed playoffs

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The New Orleans Saints miss the playoffs after the 2023 NFL Regular Season.

Staff notes:

  • Our NFL projections give New Orleans a 53% chance of making the playoffs and a 47% chance of missing.
  • This line at DraftKings is even further off from what is available at some other sites, giving an implied break-even of 37.7% chance that the Saints miss the playoffs. 
  • New Orleans is the projected favorite in a weak NFC South, but there are reasons for fading them at this line.
  • Derek Carr signed with the Saints to be their starting QB after spending his career with the Raiders. Since 2003, there have been 26 cases where a veteran QB changed teams, and his new team was projected with a win total of 8 or more (the Saints are at 9.5).
  • Of those 26 teams, only 10 of them went over the win total, and only 9 of them made the playoffs, despite having an average win total of 9.1 (they finished with 8.2 wins on average, just over 50%).
  • If you throw out the Hall of Fame caliber veterans like Manning to the Broncos, Favre to the Vikings, and Brady to the Bucs, the success rate goes down even further. Those examples are more in line with Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, but are not similar to Derek Carr.
  • In general, our research has shown that teams with a new veteran QB are poor value in win totals, and the impact of a new veteran QB can be overvalued.

Pick published: May 17 3:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Desmond Ridder Over 2500.5 Passing Yards -112

Won: 13 GS, 2836 yards

Atlanta Falcons

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Desmond Ridder passes for more than 2500 yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Desmond Ridder is 3066 passing yards in 2023, a significant edge of over 500 yards compared to this opening line on FanDuel.
  • The Atlanta Falcons were 31st in the NFL in passing yards in 2022, with 2,927 combined passing yards between Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder.
  • Ridder started the final four games a year ago as a rookie, averaging 177 passing yards. He did so without star tight end Kyle Pitts playing in any of those four games and with a limited set of receiving options. 
  • Our projections for Ridder and the Atlanta passing game are based on the team win total, and similar teams and player comps, including teams with a new young QB taking over. 
  • Since 1990, there have been only nine cases that meet the following criteria: (1) a second-year QB who started fewer than 8 games the year before is taking over, (2) and that QB was drafted in rounds 2 through 4. 
  • Those QBs averaged 2849 passing yards and 14.1 games started, and those numbers were mostly from the 16-game era. Six of the nine passed for more than 2,500 yards. 
  • We see significant value in this passing yard total because of positive regression in the Atlanta game going from Mariota to a second-year Ridder, plus the young talent in the Atlanta offense. Ridder would only have to play 13 games and average just under 200 yards a start to get to this number.

Pick published: May 23 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Team Future

Falcons to Win NFC South +275

Lost: 7-10, 3rd place in South

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Atlanta finishes 1st in the NFC South in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Atlanta a 29% chance of winning the NFC South, while the break-even percentage at these odds is 26.6%.
  • We also like Atlanta here because there are some higher variance factors and value on a potential Falcons breakout.
  • Atlanta is changing QBs to second-year Desmond Ridder, who got four starts at the end of last season after replacing Marcus Mariota.
  • Our research has shown that there can be value on teams that have a new primary starter at QB, when that QB was already on the roster the year before.
  • Atlanta also has a young, talented offensive core that could be primed for a breakout, with 22-year old WR Drake London and 23-year old TE Kyle Pitts, both drafted in the first round. The team added the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley, in Bijan Robinson of Texas, with the 8th overall pick.
  • Of the last 20 teams to spend a top 10 pick on a RB, 11 went over the win total, but more importantly for our purposes, they were higher variance and several had big breakouts, with eight of the 20 winning their division (with a preseason win total average of 7.0).

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 950.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 16 games, 1515 yards

Detroit Lions

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Amon-Ra St. Brown finishes with over 950 receiving yards in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Amon-Ra St. Brown is for 1,165 yards, over 200 yards of value with this line. (the line at Caesar's is a bit higher, at 1000.5).
  • St. Brown is currently the WR9 in ADP at FantasyPros. The five receivers closest to him in ADP who have a posted receiving total at DraftKings are at an average of 1,145 yards, also nearly 200 yards higher than the number posted for St. Brown.
  • St. Brown has averaged 78 yards per game over his last 22 games, starting with the final six games of his rookie year, and is the clear top receiver for Detroit.
  • Jameson Williams, the Lions' first round pick a year ago, is also suspended for the first six games due to a gambling policy violation, so St. Brown should garner large target shares to start the year.
  • Of the 20 most comparable players by age, draft position, production, and ADP in our similar players database, 70% went over 1,000 yards receiving the next season.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Vikings to Win NFC North +350

Lost: 7-10, 3rd place in North

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Minnesota Vikings finish in 1st place the NFC North in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Minnesota a 29% chance of winning the NFC North, while these odds have an implied 22.2% break-even rate.
  • Our projection on Minnesota is on market, as we project them for 8.5 wins in a NFC North without a top contender.
  • The division odds offered at FanDuel and DraftKings do not seem to be tied to the win total projections, as Minnesota has a higher win total at all books than both Green Bay and Chicago, but is behind Green Bay at FanDuel in division odds, and even with Chicago at both books. So we think this is just a mis-price in the division winner market here relative to other betting markets.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Joe Mixon Under 825.5 Rushing Yards -110

Lost: 17 games, 1034 yards

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Mixon rushes for fewer than 826 rushing yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Mixon is 749 rushing yards, about 75 yards of under value.
  • The one thing propping Mixon up is the perceived lack of competition now that Samaje Perine is gone to Denver (though no one expected Perine to have as many yards as he did in the preseason a year ago).
  • There's a decent chance that Joe Mixon just isn't very good any more. He finished with 814 rush yards a year ago despite a high volume of opportunities, because of poor efficiency.
  • He averaged only 1.5 rush yards after contact last year, which put him near the bottom of the league with other veterans like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette, two guys still looking for an opportunity to play this season. Mixon took a pay cut to not get cut himself.
  • Mixon also has a bunch of off-the-field issues that could swing things against him if he starts poorly. You never know when the NFL would issue punishment, but since January, Mixon has been charged with a misdemeanor of aggravated meancing for alleging flashing a gun at a woman in a road rage incident right before the playoff game against Buffalo, and also has had a civil suit filed against him arising out of an incident where his sister's boyfriend fired at a teenage neighbor this March. 
  • Given the combination of risk factors in both on-field and off-field performance and that the Bengals could always decide to bring in another veteran, we see value on the Under here.

Pick published: Aug 10 4:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Joe Burrow to lead NFL in passing yards in 2023 +700

Lost: injured, 10 games, 2309 yards

Cincinnati Bengals

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow leads the NFL in gross passing yards for the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Last year, we hit with an early May pick of Patrick Mahomes to lead the league in passing, and a lot of the same rationale applies to our pick on Burrow as the value play in that category this season. Burrow has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes, followed by Justin Herbert.
  • An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last 11 years shows that over 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
  • Burrow was 2nd (to Mahomes) in passing yards per game last season, while his total number was a little lower because the Bengals only played 16 games.
  • The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.1 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Cincinnati is at 11.5 wins entering the season.
  • Some subtle roster factors, include the age for RB Joe Mixon and expected decline, and having two elite wide receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins who are entering their prime, leads us to project Burrow as a value play here, when Patrick Mahomes at +400 is at much lower odds.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Spread

Chargers -3.0 -110

Lost: 12-13

Chiefs at Chargers

Sun Jan 7 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chargers win the game by more than 3 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a recommendation based on motivation factors.
  • As we noted in our pick'em article for this week, when a team with a losing record is favored over a playoff-bound team in the final regular season week, going back to 2002, and the starting QB for the playoff team doesn't play the full game, the favorites (like the Chargers) have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS. That includes Atlanta over Tampa Bay and Denver over the Chargers last year.
  • It's already been announced that Patrick Mahomes is sitting and Blaine Gabbert will start for KC. 
  • Other key veterans like Travis Kelce are only going to play until they hit milestones (16 yards to 1,000 for season) and this is going to be treated like a preseason game for KC, who has clinched the No. 3 seed.
  • This line has already moved to -3.5 at sharper books but is still currently available at 3 at some of them.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:19am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 482

NFL Spread

Falcons +3.0 -110

Lost: 17-48

Falcons at Saints

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 18.
  • Some of the model factors in this one include New Orleans’ relatively poor recent rush defense, combined with Atlanta’s rushing attack (Atlanta ran for 228 yards against the Saints in the first meeting).
  • The Saints also have poor rushing offense numbers, and now RB Alvin Kamara’s status is up in the air after an ankle injury.
  • Saints are 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite this year.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:18am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 457

NFL Spread

Titans +4.5 -114

Won: 28-20

Jaguars at Titans

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 18.
  • Model factors include Jacksonville's poor rushing efficiency numbers in both the last seven games and for full season, Tennessee's recent red zone defense numbers, and the Titans high rate of rushing touchdowns.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 474

NFL Spread

Panthers +4.0 -110

Lost: 0-9

Buccaneers at Panthers

Sun Jan 7 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and our top moneyline pick if you would rather play for the outright win) for Week 18.
  • Since the start of 2013, teams that were shut out the week before, like Carolina, are 25-11-1 ATS the next week when they are underdogs. 
  • So far this year, teams that were shut out went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the following week.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:19am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 480

NFL Player Future

Lamar Jackson Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns -120

Won: 5 rushing TDs

Baltimore Ravens

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson rushes for fewer than 7 touchdowns in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Lamar Jackson is 4.6 rushing touchdowns, nearly two touchdowns of under value here.
  • Lamar Jackson is coming off two years where he missed games, played in 24 total games, and had only five rushing touchdowns.
  • His career-high, seven touchdowns, would have narrowly cleared this number and both came in seasons when he had over 1,000 rushing yards.
  • The Ravens are changing offensive coordinators, and Lamar Jackson has already said he would run less under OC Todd Monken. The market adjusted to that with a downgrade in his rushing total, but not his rushing TD total.
  • Given his recent health history, aging into his mid-30's, and the likely emphasis on keeping him healthy and running less, we see value on Jackson not hitting this high rush TD total.

Pick published: Jun 29 5:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Diontae Johnson Under 875.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 717 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Diontae Johnson finishes with fewer than 876 receiving yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Diontae Johnson is for 707 receiving yards for the 2023 season.
  • Johnson finished with 882 receiving yards last season, while playing in all 17 games, and having almost 150 targets. 
  • Our projection for Johnson is based not only on his own comps, but also the positive comparable players for the next two players on last year's Steelers team, 21-year old rookie George Pickens and 24-year old TE Pat Freiermuth.
  • Diontae Johnson will turn 27 before this season, and has averaged a paltry 6.4 yards per target over the last three seasons, and 6.0 last year, while commanding a high target share.
  • He needs to stay healthy and maintain that high target share (or dramatically increase his efficiency at age 27), and we see a higher likelihood of the more efficient younger players carving out a bigger role in their second and third years respectively.

Pick published: Jun 15 1:15pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Dameon Pierce Under 900.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 416 yards

Houston Texans

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dameon Pierce finishes with fewer than 901 rushing yards for the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Dameon Pierce is 830 rushing yards this year, about 70 yards of Under value.
  • Of the 12 most similar players in our similar player analysis, 9 of them rushed for fewer than 900 yards in the next season.
  • Those similar players are based on average fantasy draft position for the upcoming season, age, previous year stats, and NFL draft position and experience. 
  • Pierce had an extremely high rush share of the Texans' offense, accounting for 74% of all rush attempts in the first 13 games, and then missed the final 4 games last year with an ankle injury.
  • He had basically zero competition at RB a year ago, but the team added Devin Singletary from the Bills, and also has a new coaching staff and QB, creating more variance around Pierce continuing with the workload he had as a rookie.

Pick published: May 26 1:38pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Player Future

Michael Pittman Jr. Under 74.5 Receptions -120

Lost: 109 receptions

Indianapolis Colts

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Michael Pittman finishes with fewer than 75 receptions during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection is for 65 receptions for Pittman, 9.5 receptions of Under value.
  • This is a case where the projection on Pittman seems influenced by last year's stats, when it's very likely that how the Colts play on offense will be substantially different with a new coach and a rookie QB who will be a high-volume rusher.
  • Pittman finished with 99 receptions but only 9.3 yards per catch last year with Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles playing at QB. That was a notable drop in yards per catch from his 12.6 and 12.3 marks in his first two years.
  • We are actually slightly above the DraftKings receiving yards number for Pittman, projecting him for more than the 800.5 yards. Our overall stat projection for Pittman has him as WR30 in our rankings, directly on market.
  • With Anthony Richardson at QB, the Colts project as a lower volume passing game, but one that should produce higher yards per catch numbers on big plays downfield. So we like the Under value here based on that style change for the offense.

Pick published: Jul 28 3:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Anthony Richardson to lead NFL in QB Rushing Yards +470

Lost: injured, 4 games, 136 yards

Indianapolis Colts

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Anthony Richardson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards in the 2023 NFL regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We project Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson with over 800 rushing yards, one of three QBs we are projecting over that threshold (Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson are the others).
  • However, the prices for those other two are significantly lower, with Fields at +200 and Jackson at +240, and we see value as the market is likely undervaluing Richardson here as a rookie with no NFL track record.
  • Richardson is an elite runner, and had 1,055 rushing yards in 19 games the last two seasons (and remember, in college they include negative sack yards in the rushing total, unlike the NFL.)
  • In looking at the last 12 QB rushing leaders, three of them were rookies (Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton) and the last five have been a QB at age 23 or younger. 
  • There are also subtle factors that impact Richardson versus the other elite runners. Justin Fields and the Bears rarely passed last year, as they had no receivers, but they traded for D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney returns from injury, so that could shift his rushing balance as Fields passes more. Jackson's Ravens have added Odell Beckham, rookie first rounder Zay Flowers, and get Rashod Bateman back from injury, and could pass more. 
  • Richardson, meanwhile, is going to be coached by Shane Steichen, who was the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia when Jalen Hurts led the NFL in QB rushing in his first year as a starter, and Richardson is not polished as a passer and should get a lot of designed runs and scrambles.

Pick published: May 12 2:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Spread

North Carolina A&T +5.5 -104

Lost: 59-77

North Carolina A&T at Elon University

Sat Jan 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina A&T wins or loses by fewer than 6 points against Elon.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • NC A&T is a vastly better team since Jason Murphy joined the team. He missed the first nine games waiting on an eligibility ruling after transferring from D2. In the 9 games without him, they were 0-9 SU and 4-5 ATS. In 5 games with him, they are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning three times outright as underdogs.
  • By our WOWY analysis, they are 12.6 points better in the games with him than without him.
  • Murphy has impacted the team's rebounding, as he posted 10 boards in each of the last two games, and NC A&T had only one game with an offensive rebound rate of 25% or higher without him, but has done that four times in four games with him.
  • Elon rates 271st in defensive rebounding, similarly in rebounding efficiency to Campbell, who NC A&T just beat by 14 as a 2.5-point dog.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 751

NCAAB Over/Under

St. Francis (PA) at Wagner Over 129.5 -108

Lost: 127 points

Sat Jan 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Francis and Wagner combine for more than 129 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306507

NCAAB Spread

St. Francis (PA) +3.5 -108

Lost: 56-71

St. Francis (PA) at Wagner

Sat Jan 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Francis wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points against Wagner.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Wagner has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5, including last 3 as favorite, as it is dealing with some injuries.
  • Guard Zaire Williams has been out, and Guard Rahmir Moore has been out since the third game, and based on this tweet it sounds like both are out a while. They are 2 of the 3 returning starters from last season.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306507

NCAAB Over/Under

Rutgers at Iowa Over 152.5 -110

Won: 163 points

Sat Jan 6 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers and Iowa combined for more than 152 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Jan 6 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 609

NCAAF Over/Under

Liberty vs. Oregon Under 65.5 -105

Won: 51 points

Mon Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Liberty and Oregon combine for fewer than 66 points in the Fiesta Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 278

NFL Moneyline

Packers To Win +100

Won: 33-10

Packers at Vikings

Sun Dec 31 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline and spread pick in Week 17.
  • A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. 
  • Minnesota won at Green Bay earlier in the year, but the situations have shifted. Minnesota is now starting their fourth QB, rookie Jaren Hall, who briefly started one game earlier but lasted only one quarter before getting hurt. 

Pick published: Dec 31 10:10am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 131

NFL Spread

Eagles -12.5 -110

Lost: 31-35

Cardinals at Eagles

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game by more than 12 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick in Week 17.
  • Since 2010, double-digit home faves in Week 16 or later are 66-4 SU and 37-30-3 ATS.
  • Philadelphia has failed to cover in four straight, but have had a poor turnover differential in that stretch and there is rebound potential against an inferior opponent.
  • Arizona placed their top WR Marquise Brown on IR this week, and QB Kyler Murray has missed practice most of the week with illness.

Pick published: Dec 31 10:10am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 120

NFL Moneyline

Saints To Win +120

Won: 23-13

Saints at Buccaneers

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins the game at Tampa Bay in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable moneyline model pick in Week 17.
  • The Bucs can clinch the division with a win at home against the Saints, but this has been a division where the underdogs have prevailed. A few years ago, we wrote about teams going for the division sweep at home. At that time, teams that won the first division matchup on the road were only 44% ATS in the return home matchup. (The Bucs won in New Orleans back in Week 4, 26-9.
  • The home team is only 17-27 ATS since 2002 in the Bucs-Saints series, and the Saints are 14-7 SU and ATS in Tampa over the last 21 trips.

Pick published: Dec 27 5:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 121

NFL Spread

Panthers +6.5 -108

Lost: 0-26

Panthers at Jaguars

Sun Dec 31 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick in Week 17.
  • Carolina put up their season-high in points and yards last week, but came up just short in a 33-30 loss to Green Bay. The Panthers have now out-gained their opponents in three straight games, and are 3-1 ATS over the last 4 games since firing coach Frank Reich, after a 1-8-2 ATS start.
  • Jacksonville, meanwhile, is on a downward trend and QB Trevor Lawrence is battling through injuries. The team has lost four straight after looking like a lock to make the playoffs, including losing the last two by more than two touchdowns to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS over that span, with three of them failing to cover by more than 10 points.
  • They cannot effectively run the ball (no games of 100+ rushing yards in the last five, and averaging 3.6 yards per rush for the year). The Jaguars pass defense is also a bottom 10 unit, and they rank 29th in passing yards allowed.

Pick published: Dec 27 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 115

NCAAF Spread

Wyoming -2.5 -110

Lost: 16-15

Toledo vs. Wyoming

Sat Dec 30 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wyoming wins the game by more than 2 points in the Arizona Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our highest-rated model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • This line has already moved, shifting the favorite from Toledo to Wyoming.
  • Toledo's starting QB and one of the top players in the MAC, Dequan Finn, has entered the transfer portal.
  • We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
  • We also like that Wyoming has a geographic advantage in a Western venue game, going against a team that will be playing with a different QB.

Pick published: Dec 6 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 272

NCAAF Over/Under

Auburn vs. Maryland Over 48.0 -110

Lost: 44 points

Sat Dec 30 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn and Maryland combine for more than 48 points in the Music City Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for the Music City Bowl.
  • It's also a play based on bowl game trends in colder weather venue games. 
  • In the bowl games played at venues with average late December/early January temperatures of 50 degrees or below, over 60% of games have gone Over since 2008.
  • So far this year, these games have gone Over 4 of 6 times, and the Music City Bowl in Nashville (average temperature 49 degrees, projected weather today in the 40s) is the final one for this bowl season.

Pick published: Dec 30 11:42am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 267

NCAAF Spread

Missouri -1.5 -112

Won: 14-3

Missouri vs. Ohio St.

Fri Dec 29 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the Cotton Bowl by more than 1 point.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
  • We get these big line moves often now because of news on who is transferring before the bowl game, or is opting out.
  • In this case, Ohio State's starting QB Kyle McCord has entered the transfer portal, and several star players for Ohio State are expected to opt out and prepare for the NFL Draft, including WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
  • The line opened at Ohio State by 7, closer to the full season power rating numbers you would expect, but has quickly already jumped to Missouri being favored, as they have a motivation edge in this one and are playing an Ohio State team that could be very different from the regular season.
  • We can still get this line before it crosses a key number at 3, and we expect this line could continue to move as official confirmation of opt outs comes in for Ohio State.

Pick published: Dec 6 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 263

NCAAF Moneyline

Oklahoma To Win +110

Lost: 24-38

Arizona vs. Oklahoma

Thu Dec 28 • 9:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma wins the Alamo Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable moneyline pick for bowls currently.
  • Oklahoma starting QB Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, but the program will start true freshman Jackson Arnold, a 5-star recruit who was National Gatorade Player of the Year. Arnold has played a limited number of snaps but has completed 75% of his passes and been as efficient as Gabriel.
  • Our predictive rating model would have Oklahoma as a large favorite (12.5 points) in this one, so the line is discounted quite a bit for transfer news, but we see value on taking Oklahoma with their quarterback of the future making his first start.

Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 256

NCAAF Moneyline

NC State To Win +130

Lost: 19-28

NC State vs. Kansas St.

Thu Dec 28 • 5:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: NC State wins the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline model play at +110, and the line available at some US books is better for value right now, including DraftKings at +130.
  • This moneyline opened at +150 when bowls were announced but has been steadily moving downward at key books.
  • Kansas State QB Will Howard entered the transfer portal, and offensive coordinator Colin Klein took a job at Texas A&M, potentially impacting the Kansas State offense. 

Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 253

NCAAF Spread

Rutgers -2.5 -110

Won: 31-24

Rutgers vs. Miami

Thu Dec 28 • 2:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers wins the Pinstripe Bowl by more than 2 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model spread pick for the Pinstripe Bowl.
  • This game has changed from Miami being favored at opening to now Rutgers being favored, and we want to grab it before it cross the key number of 3.
  • Rutgers has the major climate advantage being from the New York City area, going against a Miami football team playing in wet, rainy conditions in the low 50's today at Yankees Stadium.

Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 251

NCAAF Over/Under

Rutgers vs. Miami Over 41.5 -108

Won: 55 points

Thu Dec 28 • 2:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers and Miami combine for more than 41 points in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under in the Pinstripe Bowl.
  • The Pinstripe Bowl is one of the coldest weather venue bowls, and as we noted back in 2021, bowl games played at the coldest weather venues have gone Over 64% of the time. So far this year in such games, Overs are 2-1 (Over in Military Bowl and Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Under in New Mexico Bowl).

Pick published: Dec 28 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 251

NCAAF Spread

Kansas -11.5 -110

Won: 49-36

Kansas vs. UNLV

Tue Dec 26 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas wins the Guaranteed Rate Bowl by more than 11 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowls.
  • This line has also started to move up, and this particular line at FanDuel is lower than the -12.5 commonly being found elsewhere.
  • From our 2021 Bowl Trends article, teams that covered 75%+ of their games in the regular season covered only 42% of bowl games from 2011 to 2020, so this is also a fade against a team that overachieved expectations all year. UNLV went 9-3 ATS but did fail to cover in the last two games, both losses.

Pick published: Dec 6 5:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 239

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas St. vs. Rice Under 60.5 -110

Lost: 66 points

Tue Dec 26 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas State and Rice combine for fewer than 61 points in the First Responder Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 238

NFL Spread

Commanders +3.0 -110

Won: 28-30

Commanders at Jets

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick) for Week 16.
  • In this matchup of completely movable object (Washington's defense) versus utterly resistible force (the Jets offense), we’ll take the plus-money and go against the worst offense in the league.
  • The laundry list of Jets ineptness on offense is endless. They are last in total yards, yards per drive, points per drive, and plays per drive. They are dead last in passing touchdowns (9) but make up for that by also being last in rushing touchdowns (4).

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 465

NFL Spread

Panthers +4.0 -108

Won: 30-33

Packers at Panthers

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Week 16.
  • The line has been moving against the Packers, as they still have significant skill injuries, as Christian Watson is doubtful to play, and WR Jayden Reed and WR Dontayvion Wicks are questionable, and the team's roster moves suggest they are concerned about WR depth.
  • Packers also have S Darnell Savage as doubtful and CB Jaire Alexander as questionable.
  • Green Bay's defense is struggling on defense, getting gashed on the ground against the Giants and then lit up by Tampa Bay. The rush defense is faltering at 4.6 yards per carry allowed, and prior to the Tampa Bay game where they were motly beaten through the air, had given up at least 140 rushing yards in five straight.

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 460

NFL Spread

Falcons -3.0 -105

Won: 29-10

Colts at Falcons

Sun Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a borderline playable model pick, but is playable by the model odds (52%) if you can get the -3 line at below -110 payout odds, like the -105 currently availablle.
  • Indianapolis is a very popular side in this one in our pool data, and so far this year, when a team has had a +28% difference between win odds and popularity, and the line has moved more than a point, the team (like Atlanta) with line movement and low popularity is 7-4 SU and ATS this year.
  • So far this year, when one team is favored but the other team is drawing more than 60% of public picks, the unpopular favorite is 6-3.

Pick published: Dec 24 10:28am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 458

NCAAF Spread

San Jose St. -9.5 -110

Lost: 14-24

Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose St.

Sat Dec 23 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins by more than 9 points in the Hawaii Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • This is another game that has seen early line movement in San Jose State's favor, and we want to jump on this number while it is below the -10 key number.
  • We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
  • These are two teams going in opposite directions. Coastal Carolina closed the last 5 games without QB Grayson McCall, who is now back in the transfer portal and visiting major programs. They lost the finale by over 40 to James Madison. San Jose State is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch after a slow start.

Pick published: Dec 6 5:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 234

NCAAF Spread

Northwestern +6.5 -110

Won: 14-7

Utah vs. Northwestern

Sat Dec 23 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern wins the Las Vegas Bowl or loses by fewer than 7 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • Northwestern overcame a lot of adversity early in the year after firing head coach Pat Fitzgerald before the season began, but closed by covering 6 straight and winning the last 3 outright to make a bowl game. 
  • Utah closed a somewhat disappointing year after a 6-1 start, by losing 3 of 5, including failing to cover the last two games by double digits.
  • Model factors include Utah's poor passing numbers as the favorite, and Northwestern's low percentage of points in the fourth quarter in their recent run.

Pick published: Dec 21 3:45pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 232

NCAAF Over/Under

Utah vs. Northwestern Over 41.5 -110

Lost: 21 points

Sat Dec 23 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah and Northwestern combine for more than 41 points in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top playable Over/Under model picks for the bowl games. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 35-18.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 231

NCAAF Spread

Utah St. -2.5 -115

Lost: 22-45

Georgia St. vs. Utah St.

Sat Dec 23 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by more than 2 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • Georgia State has opened as the favorite but this line has moved in Utah State's favor and we like getting it below the 3 key number.
  • Georgia State has lost five straight, going 1-4 ATS, with all the non-covers by double digits.
  • Utah State has a significant climate/geographic advantage in this game, as it is played in an extreme cold weather venue in the mountains, and Georgia State will be the first Sun Belt team to play in the bowl (recently, it has been a MAC vs. MWC matchup).

Pick published: Dec 21 3:45pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 228

NCAAF Spread

South Florida +3.5 -112

Won: 45-0

South Florida vs. Syracuse

Thu Dec 21 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Florida wins the Boca Raton Bowl or loses by fewer than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • Syracuse has 11 players, including several defensive starters that have entered the transfer portal since the end of the season.
  • Some of the model factors include Syracuse's poor INT rate despite throwing at a low rate, and South Florida's relative defensive weakness being against the pass, where the were 2nd-to-last in yards allowed through the air, something that favorite Syracuse is not good at (124th in nation in passing yards on offense).

Pick published: Dec 21 3:45pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 218

NCAAB Over/Under

Eastern Washington at Washington Under 159.0 -110

Won: 139 points

Thu Dec 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington and Washington combine for fewer than 159 points on Thursday, December 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Dec 21 9:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 768

NCAAB Over/Under

North Carolina A&T at Coastal Carolina Under 155.5 -110

Lost: 167 points

Thu Dec 21 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina A&T and Coastal Carolina combine for fewer than 155.5 points on Thursday, December 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for today.

Pick published: Dec 21 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 746

NBA Moneyline

Raptors To Win +154

Lost: 104-113

Nuggets at Raptors

Wed Dec 20 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Raptors beat the Nuggets on Wednesday, December 20.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Dec 20 6:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 542

NCAAB Over/Under

Stetson at Florida International Under 148.0 -110

Push: 148 points

Tue Dec 19 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stetson and FIU combine for fewer than 148 points on Tuesday, December 19.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Dec 18 7:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 306512

NCAAB Moneyline

Portland St. To Win +160

Won: 75-72

Portland St. at Fresno St.

Mon Dec 18 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland State beats Fresno State on Monday, December 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball models don't have many strong money line plays per year, but the strongest subset of plays has been profitable in each of the past seven seasons. This is in that strong subset.
  • The +160 line at DraftKings is also a good value compared to the market. Our models have it as a strong play down to +144.

Pick published: Dec 18 7:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 885

NCAAF Spread

Old Dominion -2.5 -108

Lost: 35-38

Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion

Mon Dec 18 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Old Dominion wins the Famous Toastery Bowl game by more than 2 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Famous Toastery Bowl.
  • This line has moved from Western Kentucky being favored at opening to Old Dominion being favored, but you can still get it below a field goal.
  • The reason for the line move is transfer portal news. Both teams have several players who have entered the portal, but Western Kentucky's losses appear more costly, as over half of their starting offensive line is out, and several secondary defenders, including star defensive back Upton Stout, who has several offers and has visited Michigan already
  • We will play on the line move and against the quantity and quality of transfer losses for Western Kentucky.

Pick published: Dec 14 3:09pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 202

NFL Spread

Jaguars +3.5 -108

Lost: 7-23

Ravens at Jaguars

Sun Dec 17 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread (and moneyline) pick for Week 15.
  • For the second week in a row, playing against Baltimore as favorite, due to some extreme pass yards per completion and recent poor rush defense numbers, is showing up as a top model spread pick.
  • If you can get the line above a field goal, we prefer the spread to the moneyline play.
  • Jacksonville is coming off two straight poor defensive performances, losing close shootouts with Cleveland and Cincinnati.
  • The weather for this game could provide an impact, though the game is later in the day. A severe storm has moved through Florida and the SE United States, and there are heavy rains and strong winds in the aftermath.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:48am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 330

NFL Spread

Commanders +6.5 -108

Lost: 20-28

Commanders at Rams

Sun Dec 17 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model spread pick for Week 15.
  • Washington has been poor in the favorite’s role (1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS) while being a solid underdog play (5-3-1 ATS) for most of the year.
  • One reason that Washington has generally been better in the underdog role than as a favorite is likely because their defense ranks poorly (thus keeping even subpar offenses in the game against them), but their passing offense can be high variance with first-year starter Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in pass attempts.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 323

NFL Moneyline

Bears To Win +146

Lost: 17-20

Bears at Browns

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game against Cleveland in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline model pick for Week 15.
  • We have successfully picked the Bears as an upset play in each of their last two games in our Upset Picks articles (wins over Minnesota and Detroit) and will continue to ride them. The Bears’ defense has been playing much better and has held three of the last four opponents under 300 total yards and under 200 net passing yards.
  • After an 0-3 SU and ATS start where they lost each game by double digits, Chicago is 6-2-2 against the number, and have covered 4 straight as a dog, and three straight since Justin Fields returned from injury.

Pick published: Dec 14 3:05pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 309

NFL Moneyline

Panthers To Win +134

Won: 9-7

Falcons at Panthers

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game against Atlanta in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 15 (and spread pick).
  • This line has been moving downward and is at +2.5 at some places and +3 in others, so we are listing the moneyline as the recommended play, but you could also play the +3 if you can get it.
  • The weather in Charlotte is going to be very rough today, the total is at an extremely low 32.5, and there are high expected wind gusts and rain throughout the game.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:48am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 308

NFL Spread

Giants +6.0 -110

Lost: 6-24

Giants at Saints

Sun Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 6 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread (and moneyline at +215) pick for Week 15.
  • The Giants have won three straight as underdogs with rookie Tommy DeVito taking over and becoming a national story.
  • The Saints scored 28 points last week, but did so while only gaining just over 200 yards of offense against Carolina, as QB Derek Carr continues to play in the aftermath of several injuries and having two concussions in a month.

Pick published: Dec 14 3:05pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 317

NCAAB Over/Under

Western Carolina at South Carolina Upstate Under 147.5 -110

Won: 123 points

Sat Dec 16 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Western Carolina and USC Upstate combine for fewer than 147.5 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 306542

NCAAB Over/Under

Belmont at Samford Under 170.5 -110

Lost: 192 points

Sat Dec 16 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Belmont and Samford combine for fewer than 170.5 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 638

NCAAB Over/Under

Eastern Michigan at Michigan Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 149 points

Sat Dec 16 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Michigan and Michigan combine for fewer than 147 points on Saturday, December 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our highest rated college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 15 6:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 630

NCAAF Spread

Georgia Southern -3.5 -110

Lost: 21-41

Georgia Southern vs. Ohio

Sat Dec 16 • 11:00am ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Southern wins the Myrtle Beach Bowl by more than 3 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the bowl games.
  • This line has already shifted from Ohio opening as a slight favorite to Georgia Southern being favored.
  • We also wrote about big line moves in 2021 in bowl games, and how even jumping on line moves as they happened was profitable. In games where the lines moved 2+ points from opening to close, the performance of betting the move by a week out covered 56% of the time, and against the closing number 54% of the time. (and in that year, and last year, the big line moves covered as well). 
  • We get these big line moves often now because of news on who is transferring before the bowl game, or is opting out.
  • In this case, we will quote directly from the Action Network Transfer tracker: "Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones to an injury earlier this season. As a result, the Bobcats could be down their starting quarterback, top two backs and starting quarterback. With backup CJ Harris, who led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, also out for the year, the Bobs would turn to Parker Navarro, who would be the team's leading rusher (107) and passer (65) left on the roster."
  • We also like Georgia Southern having a major travel advantage, only 250 miles from the game site, against a team that looks like it will be without every key offensive player from the season due to transfer portal.

Pick published: Dec 6 5:59pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 213

NCAAB Over/Under

Connecticut vs. Gonzaga Under 149.5 -110

Won: 139 points

Fri Dec 15 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UConn and Gonzaga combine for fewer than 149.5 points on Friday, December 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).

Pick published: Dec 14 5:34pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings.

Rot# 894

NCAAB Over/Under

Furman at Tulane Under 173.5 -110

Lost: 227 points

Thu Dec 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Tulane combine for fewer than 173.5 points on Thursday, December 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our top college basketball O/U model play for today.
  • Over the previous 5 seasons plus the beginning of this one, Unders on totals in the 170s have gone 33-25-1 (56.8%).

Pick published: Dec 14 12:29pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 876

NBA Moneyline

Spurs To Win +140

Lost: 119-122

Lakers at Spurs

Wed Dec 13 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Spurs beat the Lakers on Wednesday, December 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Dec 13 7:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 512

NFL Moneyline

Broncos To Win +134

Won: 24-7

Broncos at Chargers

Sun Dec 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game at the LA Chargers in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
  • The Chargers, quite frankly, are not very good on offense right now. Since WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the team is averaging 17 first downs a game, something that has only gotten worse without WR Josh Palmer as well. First round pick Quentin Johnston has been a huge disappointment. Yes, the Chargers won last week, but did so with 6 total points  and a season-low 13 first downs on offense.
  • For the year, the Chargers are 29th in yards allowed and 15th in yards gained, but the two best offensive games by yards came in the first three weeks of the season.
  • Denver, meanwhile, is going the opposite way, having poor defensive numbers early, but being competitive since that start to climb back to 6-6. They are coming off a loss where they went -3 in turnovers at Houston, but should have value as a dog in this AFC West tilt.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 123

NFL Over/Under

Vikings at Raiders Over 40.0 -112

Lost: 3 points

Sun Dec 10 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Las Vegas combine for more than 40 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 14.
  • Both of these teams are coming off a Week 13 bye, and the Vikings have announced that QB Josh Dobbs will get the start, and the team will also get back WR Justin Jefferson, who has missed seven straight games.
  • Both of these teams rate above average in yards per point on defense, and below average in yards per point on offense, meaning they have scored fewer and given up fewer than you would expect based on the yards profile.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 121

NFL Spread

Rams +7.5 -115

Won: 31-37

Rams at Ravens

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: LA Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 8 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 14.
  • The Rams won three straight after a mid-season slump, and have won the last two games by a combined 40 points, covering both comfortably. 
  • The Rams offense has been better since the return of RB Kyren Williams, rushing the ball well each of the last two games, and have also played better since Matthew Stafford returned from injury. 

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 107

NFL Moneyline

Buccaneers To Win +110

Won: 29-25

Buccaneers at Falcons

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins at Atlanta in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 14.
  • Atlanta won a close game at Tampa Bay back in Week 7 as a slight underdog.
  • A few years ago, we wrote a research article on home division teams going for the sweep after winning on the road, and how they underperformed against the spread in the second game. 
  • The road team in a division game, seeking to avoid the sweep, was 55.3% ATS from 2008 to 2020.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 113

NFL Over/Under

Panthers at Saints Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 34 points

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina and New Orleans combine for more than 39 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 14.
  • The Panthers' extremely low points per play and yards per pass in recent games are a model factor in this one.
  • The Saints have been averaging 390 yards per game over their last seven, but have underperformed in points scored relative to yards in recent games.

Pick published: Dec 10 11:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 111

NFL Spread

Bears +3.5 -120

Won: 28-13

Lions at Bears

Sun Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for NFL Week 14.
  • This line is available at different places at either +3 or +3.5 with varying juice, but we prefer the +3.5 even at -120 in this case. Since 2010, 8.5% of games lined at +3 or +3.5 have finished at a 3-point loss margin. 
  • Among the model factors in this one are the later season home game for the underdog, Chicago's rush defense numbers, Chicago's high rate of rushing TDs to passing TDs, and Detroit's low rate of converting first downs by rush recently.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 110

NCAAB Over/Under

Cal Poly SLO at Weber St. Over 126.5 -110

Won: 128 points

Sat Dec 9 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Poly and Weber State combine for more than 126.5 points on Saturday, December 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our second highest rated college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday), and our top Over play.

Pick published: Dec 8 4:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 733

NCAAB Over/Under

Saint Mary's at Colorado St. Under 138.0 -110

Won: 125 points

Sat Dec 9 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Mary's and Colorado State combine for fewer than 138 points on Saturday, December 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Saturday).

Pick published: Dec 8 4:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 698

NCAAF Over/Under

Navy vs. Army Under 30.5 -110

Won: 28 points

Sat Dec 9 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Navy combine for fewer than 31 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for CFB.
  • In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 35 of 41 games.
  • In this specific series between Army and Navy, the last year was the only game to go Over since 2010, and that was only because it went to 2 OTs (it was 10-10 at end of regulation).
  • These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Pick published: Nov 27 4:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 103

NCAAB Over/Under

Army at Harvard Over 131.5 -110

Won: 134 points

Fri Dec 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Harvard combine for more than 131.5 points on Friday, December 8.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Friday).
  • The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Pick published: Dec 7 5:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 306581

NCAAB Over/Under

Southern Methodist at Arizona State Over 139.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Wed Dec 6 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SMU and Arizona State combine for more than 139.5 points on Wednesday, December 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our our top college basketball O/U model plays for tomorrow (Wednesday).
  • The line has moved slightly up from the opening line, indicating market agreement. But it hasn't moved so much that we think the value is gone.

Pick published: Dec 5 8:32pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 749

NCAAB Over/Under

Weber St. at Utah Valley Over 125.5 -110

Lost: 124 points

Tue Dec 5 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Weber State and Utah Valley combine for more than 125.5 points on Tuesday, December 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday).

Pick published: Dec 4 5:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 633

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Packers Over 42.5 -115

Won: 46 points

Sun Dec 3 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Green Bay combine for more than 42 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 13.
  • For the second week in a row, we get Kansas City at a low total, after their offense struggled to score points, particularly in the second half, in games in October and November, before breaking out last week. 
  • In eight games with Patrick Mahomes at QB, with a point total under 45, the Over is now 6-2 after last week.
  • Kansas City also finally concentrated their receiving targets/snaps on the relatively more efficient players last week, and rookie Rashee Rice saw career-highs with 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 107 yards.

Pick published: Dec 3 10:16am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 471

NFL Spread

Eagles +3.0 -118

Lost: 19-42

49ers at Eagles

Sun Dec 3 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated playable spread pick for Week 13.
  • Some books have this game now at +3 at increased juice, but see if you can get the +3 key number at -120 or better on juice. At below the +3, the moneyline is a higher-rated play.
  • We have a rare opportunity to grab a 10-1 team as a home underdog in this game.

Pick published: Nov 29 1:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 468

NFL Spread

Panthers +3.0 +100

Push: 18-21

Panthers at Buccaneers

Sun Dec 3 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick for Week 13 in the NFL.
  • Carolina is playing the first game after firing head coach Frank Reich following a 1-10 start. Since 2010, interim coaches in game 1 are 16-10 ATS, as we detailed in this article from last year (they went 2-1 last year after that article was published).

Pick published: Dec 3 10:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 459

NCAAB Over/Under

Coppin St. at Navy Over 123.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Sun Dec 3 • 1:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Coppin State and Navy combine for more than 123.5 points on Sunday, December 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Sunday).
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 53% over the past week.

Pick published: Dec 2 7:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306581

NCAAF Team Future

Clemson to Make CFB Playoff +360

Lost

2023-2024 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Clemson is selected into the CFB Playoff for the 2023 season.

Staff notes:

  • Last year, we had a Staff Pick on Clemson to not make the playoff, but we will reverse that this year.
  • Clemson rebounded late last year after switching to freshman Cade Klubnik at QB, and power rates as our No. 7 team entering the season (but narrowly behind No. 5 LSU). 
  • In our win projections and simulations, we have Clemson with a 28.5% chance of going either 13-0 or 12-1 and finishing as ACC Champion, scenarios that should put them in strong CFB playoff consideration if they accomplish it.
  • This is also a line where there is some disagreement in the markets, as Clemson is at +300 at both DraftKings and BetMGM, lines that take away most of this value. However, you could also play this at FanDuel, where the odds are +350 on Clemson.

Pick published: Aug 18 4:25pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NCAAF Custom Bet

"The Field" (besides Texas and Oklahoma) to win Big 12 Championship +180

Lost: Texas beats Oklahoma State in Big 12 title

2023-2024 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: A team besides Texas or Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Championship in 2023.

Staff notes:

  • This is a fun future available at BetMGM down under the college football futures in the Big 12 section of win totals and props.
  • Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the conference after the year to join the SEC, and emotions will be high throughout the other schools who, let's just say, aren't fans of the two big programs.
  • Oklahoma is a bit over valued, coming off a lengthy stretch of dominance under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, as they had their worst season in over 20 years last year with Brent Venables at head coach, and the market is baking in quite a bit of bounce-back based on the program history.
  • Texas is the conference favorite, but has frequently been an overvalued team in conference predictions, and last won the Big 12 title in 2009.
  • Based on our projections, we give "the field" a 43.5% chance of winning the conference title, compared to a break-even of 35.7% on this future.

Pick published: Aug 18 4:25pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NBA Moneyline

Pacers To Win +166

Won: 144-129

Pacers at Heat

Sat Dec 2 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Pacers beat the Heat on Saturday, December 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Dec 2 7:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 543

NCAAF Over/Under

Boise St. at UNLV Under 60.5 -108

Lost: 64 points

Sat Dec 2 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and UNLV combine for fewer than 61 points in the Mountain West Title Game.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under for Championship Weekend.
  • So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher have gone 35-17 (67%). 
  • The model factors in this one include regression from a higher total for both teams, based on both having high points per game and points per play in recent games.

Pick published: Dec 1 1:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 314

NCAAB Over/Under

Wagner at Stony Brook Over 126.5 -110

Lost: 119 points

Sat Dec 2 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wagner and Stony Brook combine for more than 126.5 points on Saturday, December 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 53% over the past week.

Pick published: Dec 2 2:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 306541

NCAAF Spread

Oregon -9.0 -110

Lost: 31-34

Oregon vs. Washington

Fri Dec 1 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon wins the Pac-12 Championship Game by more than 9 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in the Pac-12 title game.
  • Washington is undefeated, and gave Oregon their only loss of the year in a 3-point game in Seattle.
  • Washington got off to a great start, but over the last eight games, is only 2-6 ATS and has won six of those games by a single score, and none by more than 10 points.
  • Oregon, since the loss at Washington, has gone 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, winning by an average of 26 points, and not having a single game decided by one score.

Pick published: Dec 1 1:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 305

NBA Moneyline

Pacers To Win +143

Lost: 132-142

Pacers at Heat

Thu Nov 30 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Pacers beat the Heat on Thursday, November 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 30 6:30pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 503

NCAAB Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Arizona State Over 138.0 -110

Won: 139 points

Wed Nov 29 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston State and Arizona State combine for more than 138 points on Friday, November 29.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our second strongest college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday), and still one of the strongest of the past week.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 28 4:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 705

NCAAB Over/Under

California Baptist at Southern Utah Over 140.5 -110

Won: 157 points

Wed Nov 29 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal Baptist and Southern Utah combine for more than 140.5 points on Friday, November 29.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Wednesday).
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 55% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 28 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 703

NBA Moneyline

Rockets To Win +150

Lost: 115-121

Rockets at Mavericks

Tue Nov 28 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Rockets beat the Mavericks on Tuesday, November 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 28 7:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 553

NBA Moneyline

Thunder To Win +135

Lost: 103-106

Thunder at Timberwolves

Tue Nov 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Thunder beat the Timberwolves on Tuesday, November 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 28 7:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 551

NCAAB Over/Under

Utah St. at Saint Louis Over 147.0 -110

Won: 157 points

Tue Nov 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State and Saint Louis combine for more than 147 points on Tuesday, November 28.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play for tomorrow (Tuesday)
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate for the season, and 54% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 27 5:54pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 621

NFL Spread

Bears +3.5 -115

Won: 12-10

Bears at Vikings

Mon Nov 27 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Bears win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 12.
  • Chicago should have beaten Detroit in QB Justin Fields' first game back from injury, losing a two-score lead in the final four minutes.
  • The Bears rush defense numbers are a big model factor here, as they have been shutting down opponent rushing games, something that is of elevated importance for a Vikings' team now operating with Josh Dobbs at QB instead of Kirk Cousins. The Bears are allowing just over 3 yards per rush and under 60 rush yards a game over their last seven games.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 273

NCAAB Over/Under

Manhattan at Fordham Over 134.0 -110

Won: 154 points

Mon Nov 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Manhattan and Fordham combine for more than 134 points on Monday, November 27.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% rate heading into Monday, and 54% over the past week.

Pick published: Nov 27 12:47pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 857

NFL Spread

Chargers +3.5 -110

Lost: 10-20

Ravens at Chargers

Sun Nov 26 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The LA Chargers win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick in the Ensemble Forecast model for Week 12.
  • The Chargers fell to 4-6, with another close loss, and five of the losses have been by a field goal or less, so we like getting the hook at +3.5 at home in this game.
  • Baltimore's defense has been dominant, but less so in recent weeks, from their early season numbers.
  • Baltimore will be playing the first game without star TE Mark Andrews, and in the only other game without him this year, the team put up 265 total yards against Houston in Week 1, lowest of the season.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 272

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Raiders Over 42.5 -110

Won: 48 points

Sun Nov 26 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Las Vegas combine for more than 42 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Ensemble Forecast model Over/Under for Week 12.
  • Las Vegas has only allowed 16.0 points per game in the last four games with Antonio Pierce as interim head coach, but they are significantly outperforming what you would expect based on yards allowed, as they have still allowed 388 yards per game, and opponents are averaging a ridiculous 24.2 yards per point against them over that span. (For perspective, San Francisco is #1 for the year, at 19.1 yards allowed per point.)
  • Kansas City has not scored for three straight games in the second half, done in by a series of errors and turnovers near the opponent end, and our model is also picking up on their 1st quarter versus late game scoring splits.
  • In seven other games with Patrick Mahomes at QB, with a point total under 45, the Over is 5-2.

Pick published: Nov 26 10:35am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 269

NFL Moneyline

Texans To Win +102

Lost: 21-24

Jaguars at Texans

Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 12.
  • Houston is a slight home underdog in a game where they have a chance to complete the sweep of the Jags and move into first place in the AFC South.
  • The Texans overcame three interceptions and won last week, as the passing offense continues to excel in year 1 for QB C.J. Stroud.
  • The Texans have the pass efficiency advantage in this one, and their rushing offense has shown signs of life in the last two games with RB Devin Singletary carrying the load.

Pick published: Nov 22 10:54am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 252

NFL Moneyline

Falcons To Win +110

Won: 24-15

Saints at Falcons

Sun Nov 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against New Orleans in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick (and spread pick at +2) for Week 12.
  • Some of the model factors here include Atlanta's poor turnover margin and yardage profile relative to their points scored and allowed, due to turnover margin, New Orleans' poor rushing offense per play numbers, and Atlanta's high rate of rushing the football.

Pick published: Nov 26 10:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 262

NCAAB Over/Under

Northern Illinois at DePaul Over 151.5 -114

Won: 168 points

Sat Nov 25 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northern Illinois and DePaul combine for more than 151.5 points on Saturday, November 25.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is one of our strongest college basketball O/U model picks of the day.
  • This game is also available at a line of 152 with payout odds of -110 at several major U.S. books. Our models project it as s trong play at that line as well.

Pick published: Nov 25 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 639

NCAAF Over/Under

North Carolina at NC State Under 55.0 -110

Lost: 59 points

Sat Nov 25 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina and NC State combine for fewer than 55 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Pick published: Nov 24 11:01am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 162

NCAAF Spread

Florida St. -6.5 -112

Won: 24-15

Florida St. at Florida

Sat Nov 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida State wins the game against Florida by more than 6 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also rated at over 60% in our similar games model.
  • The spread in this game is about eight points lower than it would have been based on the full season power ratings, but undefeated Florida State is without QB Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending injury.
  • However, Florida also lost their starting quarterback, Graham Mertz, in the last game as well.

Pick published: Nov 24 11:01am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 153

NCAAF Spread

Tennessee -27.0 -110

Lost: 48-24

Vanderbilt at Tennessee

Sat Nov 25 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game against Vanderbilt by more than 27 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 13 in CFB.
  • Tennessee is coming off two straight losses to Missouri and Georgia, but is 4-1 ATS when favored by double digits this year, and 9-2 ATS over the last two years as a double-digit favorite.

Pick published: Nov 24 11:01am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 188

NCAAF Over/Under

Pittsburgh at Duke Over 41.5 -110

Won: 49 points

Sat Nov 25 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh and Duke combine for more than 41 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Pick published: Nov 24 11:01am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 155

NCAAF Over/Under

Oregon St. at Oregon Under 62.0 -110

Won: 38 points

Fri Nov 24 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon and Oregon State combine for fewer than 62 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable Over/Under model picks for Week 13 in CFB. 
  • So far this year, Over/Under picks rated at 55% or higher in our Ensemble Forecast Model are 33-16.

Pick published: Nov 24 11:01am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 136

NCAAB Over/Under

Winthrop at Georgia Over 145.5 -115

Won: 147 points

Fri Nov 24 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Winthrop and Georgia combine for more than 145.5 points on Friday, November 24.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 24 1:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306617

NCAAB Over/Under

Boise St. vs. Virginia Tech Under 143.0 -115

Lost: 157 points

Thu Nov 23 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Thursday, November 23.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick for Thursday.

Pick published: Nov 22 6:54pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 776

NBA Moneyline

Grizzlies To Win +168

Lost: 91-111

Grizzlies at Rockets

Wed Nov 22 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Grizzlies beat the Rockets on Wednesday, November 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 22 11:03am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 545

NBA Moneyline

Bulls To Win +225

Lost: 102-116

Bulls at Thunder

Wed Nov 22 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bulls beat the Thunder on Wednesday, November 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 22 11:03am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 541

NCAAB Over/Under

High Point vs. Hofstra Under 153.5 -110

Lost: 189 points

Wed Nov 22 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: High Point and Hofstra combine for fewer than 153.5 points on Wednesday, November 22.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 22 1:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 712

NCAAB Over/Under

Akron vs. Drake Under 142.5 -110

Won: 138 points

Tue Nov 21 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Akron and Drake combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Tuesday, November 21.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • College basketball totals began the season going Over at a high rate, due to markets underestimating the impact of the change to the block/charge rule. However over the past week the markets have seemed to overcorrect, with large upward line movements from the openers, but Unders winning at a higher rate 
  • This is our strongest college basketball model Under pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 21 12:45pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 640

NBA Moneyline

Cavaliers To Win +140

Won: 121-109

Nuggets at Cavaliers

Sun Nov 19 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cavaliers beat the Nuggets on Sunday, November 19.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 19 4:48pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 562

NBA Moneyline

Magic To Win +158

Won: 128-116

Magic at Pacers

Sun Nov 19 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Magic beat the Pacers on Sunday, November 19.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 19 4:47pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 559

NFL Over/Under

Seahawks at Rams Over 46.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 19 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle and the LA Rams combine for over 46 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 11.
  • The Rams get Matthew Stafford back at QB after missing the GB game (and having a bye), and will face a Seattle defense that Stafford threw for over 330 yards against in Week 1, without WR Cooper Kupp.
  • Seattle had offensive line injuries in that first matchup that limited their offense, but should be healthier in this one, and are coming off a season-high 489 yards last week against Washington.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 469

NFL Over/Under

Raiders at Dolphins Over 45.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas and Miami combine for over 45 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 11.
  • The Raiders have been the most significant overperformer in yards per point allowed on defense in the last three games, as opponents have gained over 25 yards for every point scored (the average across the league for the year is 15 yards per point). 
  • The Raiders have also drawn two poor offenses in the first two games of interim coach Antonio Pierce's tenure, playing low-scoring affairs with the Jets (down bad with Zach Wilson) and Giants (down worse with a 3rd stringer below Zach Wilson) but that changes today, and that should push the approach on both sides of the ball.
  • The Dolphins are coming off a bye, able to get healthy, and also get explosive RB De'Von Achane back from IR today, increasing the overall big play ability of this Dolphins offense.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 463

NFL Spread

Packers +3.0 -110

Won: 23-20

Chargers at Packers

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 11.
  • Green Bay, losers of 5 of the last 6, have underperformed in points scored relative to yards, racking up over 390 yards of total offense in each of the last two games, but only scoring 39 combined points. Green Bay's rushing offense, in particular, is playing better now that Aaron Jones has returned.
  • The Chargers have overperformed in some regression areas like turnovers in recent games.
  • The Chargers poor offensive rush per play numbers are also a model factor in this one.

Pick published: Nov 19 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 456

NFL Moneyline

Steelers To Win +100

Lost: 10-13

Steelers at Browns

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline Ensemble Forecast model pick, and also a play based on "fading the predictive ratings model extremes."
  • Over the last six weeks, underdogs who are rated under -20% cover odds with our predictive ratings model are 6-3 SU for +10.8 units, these are often games where injury info has shifted the line.
  • In this case, Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson is now out for the season, and the Browns plan to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who previously started the 28-3 loss to Baltimore where the Browns had a season-low 166 yards of offense.

Pick published: Nov 16 4:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 451

NFL Spread

Cardinals +5.0 -112

Push: 16-21

Cardinals at Texans

Sun Nov 19 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick in Week 11.
  • Houston is 0-3 ATS (and 1-2 SU) as a favorite while they are 4-2 SU as an underdog, including their last two wins.
  • Arizona is coming off a win in Kyler Murray's first start, and the overall season predictive rating is underrating Arizona because of the QB switch. Murray looked good in his return from knee injury, as he ran 6 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, and the team also got RB James Conner back from injury, and second-year TE Trey McBride is emerging as a potential top tight end.

Pick published: Nov 16 4:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 453

NCAAF Spread

Iowa St. +7.5 -115

Lost: 16-26

Texas at Iowa St.

Sat Nov 18 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game against Texas or loses by fewer than 8 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick and also rated as one of the highest Similar Games model plays.
  • Iowa State started the season 2-3 in the aftermath of the betting scandal that resulted in numerous player suspensions, but they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS over the last five weeks and have outperformed the spread by an average of +13.4 points.

Pick published: Nov 18 11:09am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 402

NCAAB Over/Under

Jacksonville St. at North Alabama Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 120 points

Sat Nov 18 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville State and North Alabama combine for more than 143.5 points on Saturday, November 18.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 52% heading into Friday.

Pick published: Nov 18 1:56pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 306545

NCAAF Over/Under

Boise St. at Utah St. Under 64.5 -110

Won: 55 points

Sat Nov 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boise State and Utah State combine for fewer than 65 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model Over/Under pick for CFB Week 12.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
  • Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
  • Both of these teams have been Over teams for most of the year (a combined 14-5-1 on Overs) but have gone Under 3 of the last 6 combined games (with a push) and this is the highest total for Boise all year (first time over 60) and tied for the largest total for Utah State.

Pick published: Nov 18 11:09am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 426

NCAAF Over/Under

Massachusetts at Liberty Over 63.5 -110

Won: 74 points

Sat Nov 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UMass and Liberty combine for more than 63 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest rated Over/Under model picks for CFB Week 12.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
  • Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
  • Some model factors are related to the UMass defense versus Liberty offense, as UMass is last in FBS in rush yards per attempt allowed while Liberty is among the leaders in rush yards per carry, and UMass also ranks poorly in yards per pass allowed.
  • Liberty's defense ranks highly in points per play recently, but there is also room for regression on that side of the ball.

Pick published: Nov 18 11:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 365

NCAAF Over/Under

Oklahoma at Brigham Young Under 58.0 -112

Won: 55 points

Sat Nov 18 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma and BYU combine for fewer than 58 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest rated Over/Unders for Week 12 in CFB.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher are 29-15.
  • Staff Picks on CFB Over/Unders are 17-9 this season.
  • BYU's offense has struggled in recent games, scoring 26 points in the last three Big 12 games, and Oklahoma could look to limit mistakes as a big favorite going against an opponent who has been struggling to sustain drives. 

Pick published: Nov 18 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 372

NCAAB Over/Under

Sam Houston St. at Mississippi Over 132.5 -110

Won: 137 points

Fri Nov 17 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sam Houston State and Mississippi combine for more than 132.5 points on Friday, November 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball Over model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Friday.

Pick published: Nov 17 8:38am ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 827

NCAAB Over/Under

Long Beach St. at Michigan Under 160.5 -110

Lost: 180 points

Fri Nov 17 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Long Beach State and Michigan combine for fewer than 160.5 points on Friday, November 17.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.

Pick published: Nov 17 8:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 796

NCAAB Over/Under

Bryant at Boston U Over 137.5 -114

Won: 174 points

Thu Nov 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bryant and Boston combine for more than 137.5 points on Thursday, November 16.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our strongest college basketball O/U model pick of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 53% heading into Thursday.

Pick published: Nov 16 9:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306583

NCAAB Over/Under

Pacific at Nevada Over 149.5 -110

Lost: 127 points

Wed Nov 15 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pacific and Nevada combine for more than 149.5 points on Wednesday, November 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 55% heading into Wednesday.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:01am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 707

NCAAB Over/Under

Evansville at SE Missouri St. Over 150.0 -110

Lost: 133 points

Wed Nov 15 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Evansville and Southeast Missouri State combine for more than 150 points on Wednesday, November 15.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 55% heading into Wednesday.

Pick published: Nov 15 9:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 693

NCAAB Over/Under

Appalachian St. at Oregon St. Over 135.0 -110

Won: 152 points

Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Appalachian State and Oregon State combine for more than 135 points on Tuesday, November 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Tuesday.

Pick published: Nov 14 11:07am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 669

NBA Moneyline

Warriors To Win +130

Lost: 101-104

Timberwolves at Warriors

Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Warriors beat the Timberwolves on Tuesday, November 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 14 7:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 578

NBA Moneyline

Clippers To Win +162

Lost: 108-111

Clippers at Nuggets

Tue Nov 14 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Clippers beat the Nuggets on Tuesday, November 14.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 14 7:29pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 575

NFL Spread

Broncos +7.5 -108

Won: 24-22

Broncos at Bills

Mon Nov 13 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 10.
  • These are two teams going in opposite directions, and the Bills' defense has taken a lot of hits over the last month.
  • Buffalo hasn't had their bye yet, and have been in close games against inferior opponents since returning from the long London trip. They've lost starters Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones, and have several other defensive players on the injury report as questionable this week.
  • Their three best defensive games, by yards allowed, were the first three of the year, and since then, they've given up 374 yards per game and nearly 22 first downs a game.
  • Denver's defense got off to a horrific start, but has put up their best defensive perfomances in recent weeks, beating Kansas City and Green Bay before their bye, and holding the Chiefs down in the other matchup before that.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 265

NFL Over/Under

Jets at Raiders Under 36.5 -110

Won: 28 points

Sun Nov 12 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York and Las Vegas combine for fewer than 37 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated playable model Over/Under pick for Week 10.
  • The New York Jets rank 30th in scoring, and have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at scoring early in games. They've scored 8 total points in the first quarter so far this year.
  • Over the last two years, the Jets have gone Under in 12 of the 17 games that Zach Wilson has been the primary QB.
  • In this matchup between the Jets' struggling offense and the Raiders with Aidan O'Connell making his third career start, we expect a conservative game plan from both.
  • So far this year, in games with a total under 40, the Under has covered 15 of 23 times.

Pick published: Nov 12 9:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 264

NFL Spread

Commanders +6.0 -105

Won: 26-29

Commanders at Seahawks

Sun Nov 12 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick at the +6 (-105) line currently commonly available.
  • Sam Howell of Washington has made great strides in the last two weeks of getting the ball out quicker (after being on pace to shatter the sack record) and that has helped the Washington offense as they nearly beat Philadelphia (and scored 31 points) and then won at New England.
  • That growth is also reflected in this stat, as Howell struggled early in the season with pressure, but excelled against the blitz in his last game.
  • Seattle has been inconsistent on offense (three games with 13 or fewer first downs and are coming off a poor offensive game at Baltimore.
  • With Seattle also ranking near the bottom of the league in first downs allowed, we like some value on Washington's pass game efficiency improvement and high volume passing attack.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 261

NCAAB Over/Under

Merrimack at Maine Over 127.5 -110

Won: 136 points

Sun Nov 12 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack and Maine combine for more than 127.5 points on Sunday, November 12.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 56% heading into Sunday.

Pick published: Nov 12 11:59am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 306549

NFL Over/Under

Texans at Bengals Under 47.0 -110

Lost: 57 points

Sun Nov 12 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Houston combine for fewer than 47 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 10.
  • In addition to the model factors, the teams both have injury issues at WR. Cincinnati's Tee Higgins and Houston's Nico Collins are both out, and Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a back injury that has limited his practice, and he is questionable.

Pick published: Nov 12 9:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 246

NFL Spread

Packers +3.0 +100

Lost: 19-23

Packers at Steelers

Sun Nov 12 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 10.
  • The Steelers have been out-gained in all eight games so far this year, and by 790 yards for the season. They are 5-3 despite being outscored for the year, as they are 5-0 in one-score games.
  • The turnover margin is at an extreme end for a team that isn't good on offense or making teams play from far behind, as Pittsburgh ranks 1st in our adjusted turnover margin (+8 in turnovers, +2 in turnovers on downs, and +2 in missed field goals).
  • The Packers have had offensive skill injuries that have kept their full unit from playing together most of year, but just put up their highest total yardage game in last week's win, coinciding with RB Aaron Jones being healthy enough to have more than 10 carries in a game (he finished with 20) for the first time all year.

Pick published: Nov 8 5:21pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 251

NCAAF Over/Under

Southern California at Oregon Under 77.5 -110

Won: 63 points

Sat Nov 11 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC and Oregon score fewer than 78 combined points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
  • So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).
  • USC has gone Over 9 of 10 games this year, pushing this high total.
  • USC and Oregon both rate highly in yards per point on offense, and USC ranks near the bottom in yards allowed per point on defense, meaning they score more points than expected based on yards, and give up more as well.
  • Despite USC's over run, we'll play this high total Under. Over the last five years, totals of 75 or higher have gone Under 17 of 29 times (58.6%).

Pick published: Nov 11 11:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 186

NCAAF Spread

New Mexico +27.5 -105

Lost: 14-42

New Mexico at Boise St.

Sat Nov 11 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Mexico wins the game or loses by fewer than 28 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable spread picks for Week 11 in CFB.
  • New Mexico rates near the bottom of FBS in yards per point allowed, but that was at an extreme last week in a 56-14 loss to UNLV, where yards for the two teams were close to even, and New Mexico dominated time of possession, but they gave up so many points (on 416 yards) because of special teams miscues (fumble by punter, big punt return) and turnover yards (long fumble return when in UNLV territory). 
  • Our model is picking up a lot of regression factors with this big line and New Mexico's points allowed relative to yards allowed.

Pick published: Nov 11 11:43am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 167

NCAAF Spread

North Carolina -12.5 -105

Lost: 47-45

Duke at North Carolina

Sat Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina wins the game by more than 12 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but is a pick based on "fading the predictive ratings model" and injury news.
  • Our predictive rating model would give UNC only a 25% chance of covering based on the full season power ratings of the two teams, but that's because the line is reflecting Duke QB Riley Leonard being out.
  • The projected starting QB for Duke, freshman Grayson Loftis, has completed only 42% of his passes this year for 4.8 yards per attempt. Duke managed to win on a last-second FG, but not cover, against Wake Forest with Loftis starting last week, despite being outgained 400 to 267.
  • Over the last two weeks, predictive ratings model games rated 33% or lower are 11-4 ATS, and these are often again games where the line is notably off, usually due to injury info.
  • Last year, from Week 11 in CFB and later, fading the biggest predictive rating differences went 15-6 ATS, again usually because of injury or player participation news (in bowl games).
  • So we will take UNC here because of the significant QB advantage in this rivalry game, with Duke's starter out and a freshman who has struggled getting the start.

Pick published: Nov 11 11:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 132

NCAAF Over/Under

Mississippi at Georgia Under 58.5 -110

Lost: 69 points

Sat Nov 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ole Miss and Georgia combine for fewer than 59 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
  • So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).
  • Some of the model factors include Georgia's low number of opponent plays allowed, and both teams having higher points per game.

Pick published: Nov 11 11:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 144

NCAAB Spread

Utah St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 66-72

Utah St. at Bradley

Sat Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State loses by fewer than 5.5 points, or wins the game, against Bradley on Saturday, November 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is both a spread analytical model play, and a predictive ratings play.
  • Bradley upset UAB in their first game, but UAB shot only 62% from the free throw line, and 16% from the three point line, so the Braves may be slightly overvalued.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:28pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 653

NCAAB Over/Under

Drexel at Winthrop Over 137.5 -110

Won: 146 points

Sat Nov 11 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drexel and Winthrop combine for more than 137.5 points on Saturday, November 11.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top college basketball O/U model play of the day.
  • The new block/charge rule has increased scoring this year, and Overs have hit at about a 57% heading into Saturday.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:20pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 306523

NCAAF Over/Under

Oklahoma St. at Central Florida Under 64.0 -110

Won: 48 points

Sat Nov 11 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State and Central Florida combine for fewer than 64 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Over/Under picks for CFB in Week 11.
  • So far this year, playable Over/Unders rated 55% or higher are 26-12 (68.4%).

Pick published: Nov 11 11:43am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 142

NBA Moneyline

Kings To Win +110

Won: 105-98

Thunder at Kings

Fri Nov 10 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Kings beat the Thunder on Friday, November 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 10 8:01pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 520

NBA Moneyline

Magic To Win +136

Lost: 119-120

Hawks vs. Magic

Thu Nov 9 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Magic beat the Hawks on Thursday, November 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 9 8:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 504

NCAAB Over/Under

Alabama A&M at North Alabama Over 140.5 -110

Won: 150 points

Thu Nov 9 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Alabama A&M and North Alabama combine for more than 140.5 points on Thursday, November 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • Our models project this as a striong play still at 141.5, which is available at FanDuel, and 141.0, which is available at Caesars.

Pick published: Nov 8 8:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306563

NCAAB Spread

Florida A&M +36.5 -110

Lost: 54-105

Florida A&M at Creighton

Tue Nov 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida A&M loses by fewer than 36.5 points against Creighton on Tuesday, November 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our preseason ratings show Florida a7M as a good value in this game, and have historically done well when showing value in both teams' first game of the season when the market may be a touch softer.
  • The line opened at -29, and is back to -35.5 at some books, so we're getting this at close to the best price that has been available.

Pick published: Nov 7 8:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306521

NCAAB Over/Under

Sacramento State at Nevada Under 138.0 -110

Lost: 140 points

Tue Nov 7 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Sacramento State and Nevada combine for fewer than 138 points on Tuesday, November 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 7 6:14pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 622

NCAAB Over/Under

CSU Northridge at Stanford Under 146.0 -110

Lost: 167 points

Mon Nov 6 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cal State Northridge and Stanford combine to score fewer than 146 points on Monday, November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • This is our top model play of the night.
  • It's available at multiple other major American books at a line of 145.5, and we'd play it at that line also.

Pick published: Nov 6 6:16pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 892

NCAAB Over/Under

Portland St. at Air Force Under 133.0 -110

Won: 117 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland State and Air Force combine for fewer than 133 points on Monday, November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.
  • NOTE: We originally listed the wrong game when posting this -- we listed Air Force's next game on November 10. We corrected it within a few minutes of posting. Hopefully nobody bet that (probably nobody was able to). In general, we will not be posting college basketball spread or total picks several days in advance.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:09pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 874

NCAAB Over/Under

SE Missouri St. at Grand Canyon Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 155 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Missouri State and Grand Canyon combine for fewer than 142.5 points on Monday November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 864

NCAAB Over/Under

Dartmouth at Duke Under 143.5 -112

Lost: 146 points

Mon Nov 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dartmouth and Duke combine for fewer than 144 points on Monday, November, 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our top college basketball O/U model plays have hit at a 54.5% rate over the past seven seasons, on a sample over 3,000 picks.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 860

NBA Moneyline

Jazz To Win +158

Lost: 113-130

Jazz at Bulls

Mon Nov 6 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jazz beat the Bulls on Monday, November 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 6 6:16pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 547

NFL Spread

Bengals -2.5 -110

Won: 24-18

Bills at Bengals

Sun Nov 5 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast pick, but is playable as a "fade the power ratings" pick, as games where our predictive ratings model gives a team 40% or lower chance of covering are actually 14-7-1 ATS this year, often in cases where injuries or other circumstances are impacting spread.
  • In this case, Cincinnati's power rating is influenced by early terrible offensive performances while Joe Burrow was struggling while playing through a calf injury. Burrow was averaging a woeful 5.3 yards per attempt and threw only two touchdowns in his first four starts. In the last three, he is back to normal, with 7.5 yards per attempt and eight TD passes. So we see value when lines are incorporating those early injury results.
  • Buffalo's defense is going the other way, with several key injuries, and they have gone from allowing 253 yards per game in the first three games this season, to 370 yards per game over the last five. 

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 474

NFL Spread

Colts -2.0 -110

Won: 27-13

Colts at Panthers

Sun Nov 5 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Indianapolis Colts win by more than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast Model spread pick for Week 9.
  • Carolina is coming off their first win of the year, but still ranks 31st in net yards per pass.
  • Carolina's rush defense also ranks near the bottom of the NFL, and unlike the last matchup against a poor rushing Houston team, Indianapolis has a good rushing offense that has been getting better as the year goes on, and Jonathan Taylor is getting worked in as the season goes on.
  • Indianapolis has 9 turnovers in the last three games, masking some of their offensive improvement, but they should have some turnover regression value.

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 467

NFL Spread

Falcons -3.5 -115

Lost: 28-31

Vikings at Falcons

Sun Nov 5 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick by our Ensemble Forecast Model, but is a play in a "fade predictive ratings" angle, and injury news.
  • So far this year, when our predictive ratings rate a team as having under 40% cover odds, they are 14-7-1 ATS. This is driven by lines that are off expectations, often because of injuries.
  • Minnesota is playing in their first game without Kirk Cousins at QB since he missed a December start against Green Bay in 2021 (that they lost 37-10), and Cousins has started nearly every game recently, starting 88 of the last 90 games for the franchise.
  • The Vikings are starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB, and traded for Josh Dobbs mid-week.

Pick published: Nov 5 9:21am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 454

NFL Spread

Packers -3.0 -120

Won: 20-3

Rams at Packers

Sun Nov 5 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay wins the game by more than three points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 9.
  • The signs are pointing to Matthew Stafford missing the game, as the Rams signed another quarterback this week, and they also have their bye week next week, allowing more time off.
  • This spread likely doesn't reflect the full value of what the line will be if Stafford is officially ruled out, as the look-ahead line was -1.5 Rams before last Sunday, and Stafford should be worth more than 4.5 points compared to an unsettled and uncertain backup QB situation with Los Angeles.

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 460

NCAAF Spread

Oklahoma St. +6.0 -110

Won: 27-24

Oklahoma at Oklahoma St.

Sat Nov 4 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 10 in college football.
  • Oklahoma State is a completely different team than early in the year on offense, and has rolled in recent games, averaging 514 yards per game during their four-game win streak.
  • That shift has come with more stability at QB with Alan Bowman (three different QBs played in the first three games) and with the emergence of sophomore RB Ollie Gordon II, who had only 19 rush attempts in the first three games, but is now the second-leading rusher in the nation after having over 550 yards and scoring 6 TDs in the last two weeks.
  • Oklahoma State has covered all of their last four games by double-digits since Gordon's emergence, winning three as a betting underdog. Oklahoma is going the other way, failing to cover each of the last two by double digits, and losing outright at Kansas, after starting the year 6-0 ATS.

Pick published: Nov 3 2:55pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 392

NCAAF Over/Under

Louisiana at Arkansas St. Under 59.5 -110

Won: 54 points

Sat Nov 4 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Louisiana and Arkansas State combine for fewer than 60 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
  • Arkansas State's has high points allowed, but that is heavily influenced by given up 110 points in the first two games to Oklahoma and Memphis, and they have averaged 26.7 points allowed over last six while going 4-2.
  • Louisiana has gone Under in each of the last three games, after starting the year 4-1 on Overs.

Pick published: Nov 3 2:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 382

NCAAF Over/Under

Army vs. Air Force Under 33.0 -112

Won: 26 points

Sat Nov 4 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Air Force combine for fewer than 33 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 10 in CFB.
  • In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 34 of 40 games.
  • In this specific series between Army and Air Force, the last game to go Over the total was in 2013, and the average points in the last nine matchups is 27.7.
  • These three service academy schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time, reducing the uniqueness edge of the triple option attack.

Pick published: Oct 30 4:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 366

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas A&M at Mississippi Over 52.0 -110

Won: 73 points

Sat Nov 4 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M and Mississippi combine for more than 52 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated model Over/Under for Week 10 in college football.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders rated at 55% or higher have covered 65% of the time (22-12)
  • Mississippi's low opponent points per play (but high number of plays against) and A&M's low opponent total plays per game (and lack of early scoring against A&M) are regression factors.

Pick published: Nov 3 2:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 403

NFL Over/Under

Titans at Steelers Over 36.5 -110

Lost: 36 points

Thu Nov 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee and Pittsburgh score more than 36 combined points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 9.
  • Pittsburgh actually ranks 30th in total yards allowed, but is 19th in points allowed, thanks to forcing 15 turnovers. So there's regression toward their defensive yardage performance.
  • Tennessee now has Will Levis starting at quarterback, and he threw more TD passes in his first career start than the Titans had in their first six games combined. 

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 309

NFL Moneyline

Titans To Win +124

Lost: 16-20

Titans at Steelers

Thu Nov 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model moneyline picks for Week 9.
  • Tennessee looked substantially different on offense, with Will Levis throwing four touchdown passes in his first start (Ryan Tannehill had two all season). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been a poor passing offense with our without Kenny Pickett, who said he would play on the short week with a rib injury. He has had more than one TD pass in one start in his career.
  • Pittsburgh leads the league in fumbles recovered (8) while being near the top of the NFL in fewest fumbles recovered by opponents (2). They rank at the top of our adjusted turnover margin metric, benefiting from 24 total turnovers/turnovers on downs/missed field goals so far, an area of regression.
  • That explains how a team that is getting outgained and has been outscored can still be 4-3. But the Steelers look overvalued, and there’s a chance the Titans have found a better QB, and will have the much better passing offense in this matchup.

Pick published: Nov 1 3:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 309

NBA Moneyline

Pistons To Win +184

Lost: 116-125

Pistons at Pelicans

Thu Nov 2 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Pistons beat the Pelicans on Thursday, November 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Nov 2 5:38pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 557

NBA Moneyline

Magic To Win +143

Lost: 103-106

Magic at Lakers

Mon Oct 30 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Magic beat the Lakers on Monday, October 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 521

NFL Spread

Raiders +7.0 -108

Lost: 14-26

Raiders at Lions

Mon Oct 30 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Monday Night Football.
  • The Raiders are -10 in turnovers, worst in the NFL, and regression related to turnovers are part of the model factors.
  • The Raiders have really struggled in two losses started by backup QBs, and Jimmy Garoppolo is back this week (3-2 ATS in games he starts). 
  • The Lions will still be without RB David Montgomery, who gives the offense a different power run element that they lack otherwise, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was downgraded to questionable yesterday due to illness, and even if he plays, may not be at 100%.

Pick published: Oct 30 4:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 279

NBA Moneyline

Warriors To Win +165

Won: 130-102

Warriors at Pelicans

Mon Oct 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Warriors beat the Pelicans on Monday, October 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 515

NBA Moneyline

Bulls To Win +140

Won: 112-105

Bulls at Pacers

Mon Oct 30 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bulls beat the Pacers on Monday, October 30.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 30 6:20pm ET, available at that time at Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 501

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Broncos Over 45.5 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Oct 29 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and Denver combine for more than 45 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Week 8.
  • These teams just played to a low-total game with 27 total points a couple of weeks ago.
  • Over the last eight years, when the first division matchup goes Under the total by at least 10 points, the rematch goes Over 60% of the time (66-44).
  • Snow is coming down in Denver early on Sunday AM, but the snowfall is expected to have stopped by game time, and wind is not expected to be high, so conditions are not such that scoring should be heavily impacted.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 271

NFL Spread

Bengals +3.5 -115

Won: 31-17

Bengals at 49ers

Sun Oct 29 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bengals win the game or lose by fewer than 4 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick after the news and line move related to Brock Purdy.
  • Brock Purdy is entering concussion protocol after the Week 7 Monday Night game with Minnesota, and Sam Darnold is likely to start at QB for San Francisco, especially given the short week and that this is just emerging more than 24 hours after the last game ended.
  • So far this year, when our predictive rating has a game at 40% or lower (because the line has usually moved due to injuries), underdogs are 9-2 ATS if our Ensemble Forecast model is playable or a lean toward the underdog. 
  • San Francisco is also dealing with several other offensive injuries that have impacted the team in the last two losses, including Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey (playing through injury).

Pick published: Oct 25 5:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 273

NFL Spread

Falcons -2.5 -115

Lost: 23-28

Falcons at Titans

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 8.
  • The Tennessee Titans will be without QB Ryan Tannehill and reportedly playing both rookie QB Will Levis and second-year QB Malik Willis (with Levis expected to start).
  • Atlanta has been a really good defensive team this year, ranking third in total yards allowed, and now getting a team with an unsettled QB situation.
  • Tennessee just traded away team leader and safety Kevin Byard, and are rumored to be in "sell" mode, and we could also be getting a motivation advantage for a team where some other veterans know they could be traded before next week's deadline.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 265

NFL Spread

Patriots +8.5 -110

Lost: 17-31

Patriots at Dolphins

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread pick for Week 8.
  • One of the major model factors is relative fumble recovery luck this year, as Patriots opponents have recovered 71% of fumbles in their games, while the Dolphins have recovered 68% of the fumbles in theirs.
  • Miami is dealing with several injury issues and changes in recent weeks, and isn't quite as explosive without RB De'Von Achane, while the Patriots are coming off their best offensive game of the year in the upset of Buffalo.

Pick published: Oct 29 9:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 261

NFL Spread

Panthers +3.0 -110

Won: 15-13

Texans at Panthers

Sun Oct 29 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Week 8 as of today.
  • Winless Carolina will look to become the last team to get a win this season, coming off their bye week.
  • The Panthers' rush defense weakness is counteracted by the Texans' poor rushing efficiency (3.2 yards per carry).
  • Another area of regression in this matchup is related to turnovers, as Houston is +6, while Carolina is -3. In our adjusted turnover differential (which also looks at turnovers on downs and missed field goals), Houston is near the top (+8) and Carolina near the bottom (-11). Over the last two weeks, teams with the worst adjusted turnover differential in the matchup are 19-8 ATS.

Pick published: Oct 25 5:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 256

NCAAF Team Future

Baylor Over 7.5 Regular Season Wins +152

Lost: 3 wins

2023-2024 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins more than 7 games in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • This is an off-market line and this pick is specific to FanDuel, as several other books have alternate lines at 7 or 8 wins that show no value with the odds.
  • We project Baylor with a 47% chance of going over this number and winning 8 or more games, while the break-even is 39.7%.
  • Baylor entered last year as a preseason Top 10 team coming off a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss, but floundered to a 6-7 finish last year.
  • We project a bounce back in head coach Dave Aranda's fourth season, as Baylor ranks 29th in our preseason rankings.

Pick published: Aug 18 4:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Over/Under

Oregon St. at Arizona Under 56.5 -105

Won: 51 points

Sat Oct 28 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon State and Arizona combine for fewer than 57 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
  • Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
  • Oregon State has gone Over in 5 of 7, but Arizona has gone Under in 6 of 7 this year, and a lot of the model factors in this one are related to Arizona at this total.
  • Arizona has high points per play, first downs per play, and a really high third down conversion rate, so there's room for regression downward in Arizona's scoring, despite their games going Under (because of their defense). 
  • Arizona's rush defense is allowing 99 yards a game, and Arizona ranks 14th nationally in fewest opponent plays per game (63.3).

Pick published: Oct 27 12:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 176

NCAAF Spread

San Jose St. -10.5 -110

Won: 35-0

San Jose St. at Hawaii

Sat Oct 28 • 11:59pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins the game by more than 10 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast Model pick and also rated above 60% in our Similar Games Model.
  • So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
  • Some of the model factors here involve some of San Jose State's weaknesses (high YPC allowed, high third down conversion rate allowed) combined with Hawaii's poor performance on offense in those categories, where the Rainbow Warriors are 132nd (out of 133) in FBS in rush yards per carry.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:18pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 213

NCAAF Over/Under

Vanderbilt at Mississippi Under 63.0 -110

Won: 40 points

Sat Oct 28 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vanderbilt and Ole Miss combine for fewer than 63 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
  • In games with a total above 62, the Under is 24-15 (61.5%) so far this year.
  • Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
  • Some of the model factors in this one are related to expected regression with the high total, and include Vanderbilt's high completion percentage allowed, third down conversions allowed, and high opponent plays per game; Ole Miss' high yards per pass, and Ole Miss having a high percentage of their scoring after halftime, but Vanderbilt being a poor team at scoring after halftime.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 200

NCAAF Spread

Kentucky +3.5 -110

Lost: 27-33

Tennessee at Kentucky

Sat Oct 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model and is rated at above 60% in our Similar Games Model.
  • So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
  • Kentucky has lost two straight to Georgia and Missouri, and dealt with a lot of injuries over that stretch, but is coming off a bye week to rebound and get some of those players back this week.
  • Kentucky has been a good home underdog team in recent years in SEC play, going 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS at home as a dog in the last five years under Mark Stoops.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 126

NCAAF Spread

Michigan St. +7.5 -110

Lost: 12-27

Michigan St. at Minnesota

Sat Oct 28 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, and is also our highest-rated Decision Tree model pick, and rated at over 60% in our Similar Games model.
  • So far this year, Similar Games model picks above that cutoff have gone 47-30-2 ATS, and are 106-79-3 over the last two seasons. 
  • Michigan State is 127th in yards per point margin, meaning they have scored far fewer points than expected + allowed more than expected based on yards allowed.
  • Some of the model factors in this game are Michigan State's poor turnover margin, Minnesota's low yards per pass on offense, and Minnesota's high fourth down conversion rate, and time of possession, and pace of play.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 121

NCAAF Over/Under

Oklahoma at Kansas Under 66.0 -108

Lost: 71 points

Sat Oct 28 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma and Kansas combine for fewer than 66 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated Over/Under model plays for Week 9 in CFB.
  • In games with a total above 62, the Under is 24-15 (61.5%) so far this year.
  • Playable Over/Unders rated above 55% are 20-11 so far this year.
  • A lot of the model factors in this one are related to the high total and regression from extreme numbers, including Oklahoma's and Kansas' high points per game, Kansas' high points allowed, Kansas' high points per play and first downs per play in recent games, and Oklahoma's high defensive interception rate.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:18pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 154

NBA Moneyline

Trail Blazers To Win +130

Lost: 97-102

Magic at Trail Blazers

Fri Oct 27 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Trail Blazers beat the Magic on Friday, October 27.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 552

NBA Moneyline

Raptors To Win +122

Lost: 103-104

Raptors at Bulls

Fri Oct 27 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Raptors beat the Bulls on Friday, October 27.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 543

NBA Moneyline

Warriors To Win +128

Won: 122-114

Warriors at Kings

Fri Oct 27 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Warriors beat the Kings on Friday, October 27.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 27 4:22pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 553

NBA Moneyline

Thunder To Win +122

Won: 124-104

Thunder at Bulls

Wed Oct 25 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Thunder win the game against the Bulls on October 25th.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 25 4:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 519

NBA Moneyline

Hornets To Win +148

Won: 116-110

Hawks at Hornets

Wed Oct 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Hornets beat the Hawks on October 25th.

Staff notes:

  • Our model money line plays on underdogs are up more than 50 units over the past two seasons, and have been positive six of the past eight seasons.

Pick published: Oct 25 4:52pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 506

NFL Spread

Vikings +6.5 -110

Won: 22-17

49ers at Vikings

Mon Oct 23 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick (and moneyline pick at +240) for Week 7.
  • San Francisco is dealing with several key injuries on offense coming off last week, as WR Deebo Samuel has been ruled out for multiple weeks, OL Trent Williams is doubtful, and RB Christian McCaffrey is questionable for the game, and could be limited even if he plays.
  • San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per point, scoring a point for every 12.1 yards gained this year, but any impact to their key offensive players could alter that efficiency.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 474

NFL Over/Under

Packers at Broncos Under 45.0 -110

Won: 36 points

Sun Oct 22 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Green Bay combine for fewer than 45 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 7 according to our models.
  • These teams have gone Over in 7 of their 11 combined games so far this year.
  • However, these teams are last and 30th in offensive plays per game, with the totals going over because of opponent early scoring, and high points per yards gained and allowed.
  • Green Bay ranks 2nd overall in our points per yard metric, which is a stat subject to regression.
  • Denver had a historically bad start to the season defensively, but did show better in their last game against Kansas City.
  • Green Bay's low completion percentage (last in the NFL at 55.6%) is also a factor in our models for this Under.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 470

NFL Spread

Cardinals +7.5 -105

Lost: 10-20

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sun Oct 22 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 7, and our highest-rated at the moment.
  • Seattle has over-performed relative to its yardage gained so far this season, as the Seahawks rank in the middle of the NFL in yards, but rank 5th in yards per point (while Arizona is 27th).
  • Arizona has played competitively this season, but has been plagued by second-half collapses. They’ve had a halftime lead in four of their six games so far, but have been outscored 98-30 after halftime. That includes getting outscored 20-0 after the break last week against the Rams, in a game where the yardage totals were pretty even for both teams.
  • Add in that Seattle has struggled as a bigger favorite in recent years (since 2017, the Seahawks are 5-13 ATS and only 10-8 SU when favored by 5 points or more at home), and we’ll take the points in this divisional matchup.

Pick published: Oct 18 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 463

NFL Over/Under

Raiders at Bears Under 38.5 -110

Lost: 42 points

Sun Oct 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas and Chicago combine for fewer than 39 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick for Week 7 according to our models.
  • This game will feature backup rookie QB Tyson Bagent for Chicago, and aging veteran backup Brian Hoyer for Las Vegas, who last won a game as a starter in the NFL in 2016.
  • Las Vegas scored their season-high, 21 points, last week and has gone Under in 5 of 6.
  • Chicago had gone Over in their first 5 games, but those were with Justin Fields playing the full game in each.
  • We anticipate both teams will be conservative, settle for field goals, and try to avoid mistakes in this matchup given the starting QB situation for both teams.

Pick published: Oct 22 10:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 454

NFL Moneyline

Falcons To Win +124

Won: 16-13

Falcons at Buccaneers

Sun Oct 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against Tampa Bay in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated moneyline plays for Week 7 (and also a playable spread pick at +2.5).
  • Atlanta held Washington to just 13 first downs and under 200 total yards last week, but lost partly thanks to three interceptions.
  • In fact, several angles for this pick relate to possible regression around luck-related factors. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin on the season, while Atlanta is -6. Atlanta has also underperformed in terms of points scored compared to yards gained.
  • Both of these teams’ rush defenses have been stout, but the Bucs have put up poor offensive performances in their two recent losses, with a rushing offense that ranks 32nd in the NFL.
  • That could put more pressure on QB Baker Mayfield, as the Atlanta defense is quietly playing well, ranking 4th overall in total yards allowed this season.

  •  

Pick published: Oct 18 5:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 451

NCAAF Team Future

UNLV Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins +138

Lost: 9 wins

2023-2024 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: UNLV wins fewer than 6 games in the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • UNLV is coming off a 5-7 where they were 109th in our final predicitve ratings, and the team fired head coach Marcus Arroyo.
  • Former Missouri head coach Barry Odom (most recently Arkansas defensive coordinator) is taking over, and we have UNLV ranked similarly this year at 106th in our preseason rankings.
  • This staff pick is specific to the line value on this line, getting +138 on the Under at FanDuel. This pick is playable down to +130 if you find it at another book at the 5.5 win total.

Pick published: Aug 18 4:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Kent St. +7.0 -110

Lost: 6-24

Buffalo at Kent St.

Sat Oct 21 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also playable at over 60% in our Similar Games model. Similar Games picks rated at 60% or higher are 41-24-2 ATS so far this year, and such games on underdogs are 93-76 (55%) ATS over the last three seasons.
  • Both these teams are among the worst in the MAC, but we'll take Kent State and the points given the poor numbers for Buffalo's offense, and the discrepancy in these two in points per yard gained so far.
  • Buffalo's only win by more than a single score this year came in a game where they had a +4 turnover margin.

Pick published: Oct 19 4:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 360

NCAAF Over/Under

Air Force at Navy Under 34.5 -110

Won: 23 points

Sat Oct 21 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Navy combine for fewer than 35 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 8 in CFB.
  • In games involving the service academies (Army/Air Force/Navy), since 2010 the game has gone Under the total in 33 of 39 games.
  • These three schools all run the triple-option offense, and are among the few that do it, so when they play other teams it is an offense that is rarely seen or practiced against, but it is something that their own defenses practice against all the time.

Pick published: Oct 19 4:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 350

NCAAF Spread

Marshall +4.5 -106

Lost: 9-20

James Madison at Marshall

Thu Oct 19 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marshall wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Thursday Night.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also playable at over 60% in our Similar Games model. Similar Games picks rated at 60% or higher are 41-24-2 ATS so far this year, and such games on underdogs are 93-76 (55%) ATS over the last three seasons.
  • Marshall has lost two straight games after four wins to start the year, while James Madison is off to a 6-0 start and receiving national attention and outcry because they aren't bowl-eligible after recently moving to FBS, and we'll play against the team getting national attention, on the road, on a short week.

Pick published: Oct 19 4:43pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 314

NFL Spread

Cardinals +7.0 -112

Lost: 9-26

Cardinals at Rams

Sun Oct 15 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Arizona Cardinals win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated spread pick for Week 6 in the NFL.
  • Some model factors include the Rams' low yards per carry and the Cardinals' high rushing yards and yards per carry so far, as well as the Rams' mediocre rush defense numbers.

Pick published: Oct 15 10:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 271

NFL Spread

Patriots +3.0 -105

Lost: 17-21

Patriots at Raiders

Sun Oct 15 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable spread pick for Week 6.
  • New England was shut out last week at home in embarrassing fashion, 34-0 to New Orleans. QB Mac Jones’ job is potentially in jeopardy. New England has put up two of its worst-ever performances with Bill Belichick as head coach.
  • Since the start of the 2013 season (last decade), teams that were shut out the week before and were an underdog the following week have gone 23-10-1 ATS over that span.
  • The Patriots are dead last in our adjusted turnover look at not only turnovers but turnovers on downs and missed field goals. They are near the bottom in turnovers, and have also converted only two-of-10 fourth downs and made only four of their eight field goal attempts.
  • This pick is getting points against Belichick's former assistant Josh McDaniels, who has arguably been the worst in-game strategic endgame coach this year, making several sub-optimal late decisions.

Pick published: Oct 11 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 269

NFL Moneyline

Texans To Win +110

Won: 20-13

Saints at Texans

Sun Oct 15 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game against New Orleans in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 6.
  • Houston has covered in three straight, but with the point spread at only +1.5 our models see a little more value on the outright win moneyline than the spread at -110.
  • New Orleans is coming off a 34-0 shutout at New England where they forced three turnovers, had two turnovers on downs, and the Patriots missed a field goal, making it one of the most extreme turnover and miscue games of the season.
  • Model factors include New Orleans' low season yards per carry (3.4) and Houston allowing few passing touchdowns (a league-leading three allowed so far in five games).

Pick published: Oct 15 10:56am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 262

NFL Moneyline

Commanders To Win +124

Won: 24-16

Commanders at Falcons

Sun Oct 15 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Washington has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team this year, and are coming off an embarrassing performance, especially for the defense, where they allowed Chicago to roll, and WR D.J. Moore to have over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Washington now ranks 31st in points allowed.
  • But they now get to play an Atlanta team that has not been very explosive and is not an agressive passing team. Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder only has four passing TDs this year, none longer than 15 yards (two were basically short passes behind the line to Bijan Robinson).
  • So we’ll play on the better offense getting positive value, against a team that has yet to show consistency on that side of the ball, and for Washington’s defense to show a little better than their recent effort.

 

Pick published: Oct 11 4:36pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 253

NCAAF Spread

Michigan St. +5.0 -110

Won: 24-27

Michigan St. at Rutgers

Sat Oct 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for Week 7 according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Further, it is rated over 60% by our Similar Games Model.
  • So far this year, picks rated over 60% by our Similar Games Model are 35-19-2 ATS. Since 2021, underdogs rated over 60% by Similar Games are 89-71 ATS.
  • Michigan State has lost three straight after firing head coach Mel Tucker and replacing him with interim coach Harlon Barnett. The team is also likely to make a QB switch after getting a bye week to get healthy, as starter Noah Kim had thrown 6 interceptions in the last three games. While Barnett won't name a starter, it's believed that the team will start Katin Houser.
  • Michigan State is 130th (out of 133 teams) in our yards per point metric, and the turnovers with Kim at QB have been a big reason why they have underperformed in scoring.

Pick published: Oct 12 4:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 143

NCAAF Spread

Alabama -19.5 -110

Lost: 24-21

Arkansas at Alabama

Sat Oct 14 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Alabama wins the game by more than 19 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread pick for Week 7 in CFB.
  • Since 2021, picks rated above 55.0% cover odds have gone 58-44 (56.9%). This game is rated at 57.5% to cover the 19.5-point line.
  • Alabama has covered three straight in SEC play after a slow start with the loss to Texas and poor performance against South Florida.
  • Arkansas has lost four straight, and is last in the SEC in total yards per game on offense, and near the bottom of all FBS in offensive sack rate.

Pick published: Oct 12 4:15pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 204

NCAAF Over/Under

Fresno St. at Utah St. Under 57.0 -110

Lost: 69 points

Fri Oct 13 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State and Utah State combine for fewer than 57 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated Over/Under pick for Week 7 in CFB.
  • Totals picks rated at 55.0% or more to cover are 16-8 so far this year.
  • Utah State games have gone over five straight games, while Fresno State games are 4-2 on the Over.
  • Fresno State's defense, though, has only allowed just over 10 points per game in their last four games. This is easily the best defense that Utah State has faced since a 14-24 loss to Iowa in the season opener.
  • Fresno State ranks among the national leaders in yards allowed, and is 7th in opponent interception rate.

Pick published: Oct 12 4:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 180

NCAAF Over/Under

Stanford at Colorado Under 60.0 -110

Lost: 89 points

Fri Oct 13 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford and Colorado combine for fewer than 60 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under pick in CFB for Week 7.
  • Totals picks rated at 55.0% or more to cover are 16-8 so far this year.
  • Stanford has gone Under four straight games while averaging fewer than 15 points a game.
  • This kickoff will come on Friday night in Boulder, as a cold front moves through and temperatures drop into the low 30's.

Pick published: Oct 12 4:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 124

NFL Spread

Raiders -2.5 -108

Won: 17-13

Packers at Raiders

Mon Oct 9 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game by more than 2 points on Monday Night Football.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 5.
  • This line has been moving in Las Vegas' favor, as we identified it as an Upset Pick last Wednesday when the Raiders were the slight dog. 
  • This is a game where the model and stat factors point to regression for both teams, in opposite directions. The Raiders have been among the worst in the league at turnovers, ranking dead last with a -9 turnover differential through four games.
  • Green Bay, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in yards, plays per drive, and yards per drive; the Packers also rank 26th in both first downs gained and first downs allowed. But they rank closer to average in actual scoring, thanks to being near the top of the league in red zone touchdown rate and by converting 100% of field goals so far.
  • Basically, Green Bay has had a lot of really poor drives, but has tended to score a touchdown on drives where they move the ball at all. Streaks like that probably can’t last too much longer.
  • Packers RB Aaron Jones has also now been ruled out from playing in tonight's game.

Pick published: Oct 9 3:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 476

NFL Spread

49ers -3.5 -110

Won: 42-10

Cowboys at 49ers

Sun Oct 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for NFL Week 5.
  • In this heavy weight NFC matchup, the San Francisco 49ers have been the more consistently efficient offense, while Dallas' margins have been inflated by a league-high four defensive and special teams scores.
  • San Francisco scored a TD on five of six actual possessions against Arizona (excluding end-of-half kneel downs). The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in scoring on 56% of drives, but that even understates it, as they have had six possessions kneeling/running out the clock at the end of halves. They've scored on two-thirds of the drives they are trying to score.

Pick published: Oct 4 5:40pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 474

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Vikings Over 52.5 -110

Lost: 47 points

Sun Oct 8 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Kansas City combine for more than 52 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest rated Over/Under picks for Week 5.
  • Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
  • Both of these teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in turnovers so far, something that has hurt their points scored. 
  • Model factors also include Kansas City's low percentage of points coming in the fourth quarter so far, Minnesota's high completion percentage allowed, Kansas City's low offensive sack rate, and Kansas City's low points allowed so far (15.0 per game).

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 471

NFL Spread

Panthers +10.0 -112

Lost: 24-42

Panthers at Lions

Sun Oct 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated spread pick for Week 5.
  • Also playable at the common +9.5 -110 avaiable at most books.
  • Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown missed practice on Wednesday with an abdominal injury and would be a notable omission if he is out, as the Lions' best receiving threat.

Pick published: Oct 4 5:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 455

NFL Over/Under

Saints at Patriots Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 34 points

Sun Oct 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans and New England combine for more than 39 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under pick for Week 5. Over the last three years, playable Overs rated above 55% have covered 14 of 20 times.
  • These teams have gone Under a combined 7 of their 8 games, but several regression factors point to value on the Over at this low total.
  • New Orleans is dead last in red zone TD efficiency, scoring a TD only 33% of the time so far. 
  • New England ranks 32nd and New Orleans 29th in yards per point scored so far, a measure that shows that both teams have scored fewer points than expected based on the yards gained.
  • New England just lost two key players that were a big part of why they rank 10th in yards allowed so far: CB Christian Gonzalez and LB Matthew Judon.

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 461

NFL Moneyline

Jaguars To Win +210

Won: 25-20

Jaguars vs. Bills

Sun Oct 8 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Jaguars win the game in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for Week 5.
  • The “London” Jaguars got to stay in England for two straight weeks and welcome the Buffalo Bills this week. Buffalo has been rolling over the last three weeks, though the fickle shift of the turnover gods has been a part in just how dominant they have appeared.
  • After four turnovers in the opening loss to the Jets, things have swung wildly the other way, with Buffalo at +9 in turnovers over the most recent three games. Some of that extreme turnover performance is what our models are picking up.
  • We also like the potential value of the unknown situation of one team getting a travel advantage in London, something that has never happened before.

 

Pick published: Oct 8 7:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 451

NCAAF Spread

Miami -19.5 -110

Lost: 20-23

Georgia Tech at Miami

Sat Oct 7 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game by more than 19 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 6 in CFB.
  • Georgia Tech's defense struggled in their last game, where they allowed 38 straight points to Bowling Green (after getting off to a 14-point lead early) in an upset home loss.
  • Miami rates near the top of CFB, 12th nationally in completion percentage so far (72.5%). 
  • The Hurricanes also rate 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (216) while Georgia Tech is 129th in rushing yards allowed per game (231) and allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

Pick published: Oct 6 11:37am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 338

NCAAF Over/Under

Colorado St. at Utah St. Under 64.5 -110

Lost: 68 points

Sat Oct 7 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State and Utah State combine for fewer than 65 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Under pick for CFB Week 6.
  • BetMGM's line is also a point above market, but this is playable at 63.5 as well.
  • So far this year, Unders rated as playable at 55% or higher are 10-3, and Staff Pick Unders for CFB are 8-2, with the two losses coming in overtime and by 0.5 point.

Pick published: Oct 5 5:59pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 372

NCAAF Over/Under

Colorado at Arizona St. Under 60.5 -110

Won: 51 points

Sat Oct 7 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado and Arizona State combine for fewer than 61 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated playable Under for Week 6 in CFB.
  • Shop for your best line, but playable at 59.5
  • So far this year, Unders rated as playable at 55% or higher are 10-3, and Staff Pick Unders for CFB are 8-2, with the two losses coming in overtime and by 0.5 point.

Pick published: Oct 5 5:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 378

NCAAF Over/Under

South Florida at UAB Under 68.5 -110

Lost: 91 points

Sat Oct 7 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Florida and UAB combine for fewer than 69 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Under pick for Week 6 in CFB.
  • So far this year, Unders rated as playable at 55% or higher are 10-3, and Staff Pick Unders for CFB are 8-2, with the two losses coming in overtime and by 0.5 point.
  • Unders for totals higher than 65 points are 12-4 so far this year.

Pick published: Oct 5 5:59pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 400

NCAAF Spread

Missouri +4.5 -110

Lost: 39-49

Louisiana St. at Missouri

Sat Oct 7 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also has a 59.7% cover rate based on our Similar Games Model. (So far this year, Similar Games rated 60% are 29-17-2 ATS, and over the last three seasons, underdogs rated 60%+ are 85-69 ATS.)
  • LSU's offense has been explosive, but their defense has been far from vintage, ranking among the worst in FBS in several categories. LSU is 114th in points allowed per game, 116th in yards allowed, and 117th in yards per pass allowed.
  • 5-0 Missouri is 4th nationally in yards per pass attempt (10.7) and Luther Burden leads the nation in receiving yards.
  • Based only on this year's results, Missouri would be the higher-rated team, and the spread reflects the preseason priors, where LSU was No. 5 entering the year, but has dropped to No. 17 based on those defensive struggles. 
  • This is also a playable Moneyline pick if you would rather play the outright win at +odds.

Pick published: Oct 6 11:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 358

NFL Spread

Giants -1.5 -110

Lost: 3-24

Seahawks at Giants

Mon Oct 2 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York wins the game by more than 1 point in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
  • These two teams actually have a very similar yardage differential profile, moreso than their point differential results and records would suggest, as Seattle has the third best adjusted turnover differential thanks to opponent 4th down fails, missed field goals, and turnovers, while the Giants haven't forced a turnover yet (and had things like a blocked FG returned for TD). 
  • Seattle also ranks highly in our yards per point measure while the Giants are near the bottom of the league, another stat that tends to regress. 
  • Seattle is also likely to be a very popular pick, as our early pool data shows over 70% of the public picking the Seahawks outright to win even though they are the underdog.
  • New York has struggled on offense against the 49ers and Cowboys, while racking up 26 first downs against the Cardinals. The Seahawks are 29th in yards and points allowed, and 30th in first downs allowed after three games.

Pick published: Sep 26 9:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 280

NFL Spread

Raiders +6.5 -110

Lost: 17-24

Raiders at Chargers

Sun Oct 1 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model NFL pick for Week 4.
  • Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been ruled out (concussion) and rookie Aidan O'Connell is expected to start.
  • Garoppolo had six interceptions in his first three games, and the Raiders are a league-worst -7 in turnover margin, a regression category that is a factor in our models. 
  • Las Vegas is also dead-last in rushing yards, coming after Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards last year, had an extended hold out that resolved right before the season, but they draw a Chargers team that is 31st in total yards allowed, and was dead last in rush yards per carry last year.
  • While Garoppolo's absence may get the most attention, the Chargers have several key players out, as starting center Corey Linsley has an unspecified illness and was just placed on IR with a "non-emergent heart condition", defensive end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James are both unlikely to play, and WR MIke Williams suffered a torn ACL last week. RB Austin Ekeler is also not expected to return this week.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 271

NFL Spread

Patriots +7.0 -115

Lost: 3-38

Patriots at Cowboys

Sun Oct 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Week 4.
  • New England has allowed 811 total yards, very similar to Dallas' 786, even though the Patriots have played the Eagles and Dolphins' offenses, while the Cowboys have played the Giants and Cardinals (both played the Jets). 
  • The difference is in turnovers and other high leverage plays that are less predictive, as Dallas is 1st in our adjusted net turnovers, while New England is near the bottom. 
  • Dallas also lost CB Trevon Diggs for the season and struggled in allowing some big plays to the Cardinals in the Week 3 loss.
  • Other model factors include the Patriots defensive efficiency at stopping both the run and pass in recent games, as well as fumble recovery rates.

Pick published: Sep 26 9:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 273

NFL Spread

Vikings -4.5 -106

Won: 21-13

Vikings at Panthers

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game by more than 4 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 4.
  • The Vikings have had terrible fumble luck, recovering only 1 of 12 total fumbles (by them or the opponent) in the first three games, as all have been close losses.
  • The Panthers' high fumble recovery rate in recent games, as well as the Vikings strong passing numbers and high rate of pass TDs, are other factors.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 255

NFL Over/Under

Ravens at Browns Over 38.5 -110

Lost: 31 points

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore and Cleveland combine for more than 38 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 4.
  • The Browns' defense has been dominant so far, but we'll play a little contrarian with this low total, for some positive scoring regression for both of these teams.
  • Some model factors include the Browns' low first downs per play and opponents' first downs per play, and the low percentage of scoring coming in the first quarter, where none of the previous three opponents have scored in the first quarter this year.
  • Over the last five years, games with a similar Over/Under (between 37.5 and 39.5) have gone 34-26 on the Over.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 259

NFL Moneyline

Titans To Win +130

Won: 27-3

Bengals at Titans

Sun Oct 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Tennessee Titans win the game in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline (and spread pick at +2.5) in Week 4.
  • The Bengals won 19-16 last week, taking advantage of a LT injury for the Rams to shut down their offense and create lots of pressure last week, but the offense is still not clicking.
  • Some of the key model factors here including the Titans' strong rush defense (2.6 yards per carry allowed) and the Bengals' low rate of picking up first downs on the ground, Cincinnati's low passing yards totals in recent games, and the Titans' rush to pass splits.

Pick published: Oct 1 9:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 270

NCAAF Over/Under

South Carolina at Tennessee Under 60.5 -110

Lost: 61 points

Sat Sep 30 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina and Tennessee combine for fewer than 61 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable Under for this week in CFB.
  • Model Under picks rated at over 55% are 10-2 so far this year, and Staff Pick Unders in CFB are 7-1 so far this year. 
  • Model factors for this game include South Carolina's high offensive sack rate, Tennessee's low yards per carry allowed, and Tennessee's high points per play number, something that is subject to regression.

Pick published: Sep 29 5:31pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 138

NCAAF Spread

Oklahoma -19.5 -105

Won: 50-20

Iowa St. at Oklahoma

Sat Sep 30 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma wins the game by more than 19 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread pick for CFB in Week 5.
  • Oklahoma has jumped to No. 1 in our power ratings, and is top 5 in yards per game and leads the nation with a 79% completion percentage.
  • Model factors include Oklahoma's high completion percentage and yards per play, and Iowa State's low percentage of first downs by rushing, low rushing yards per game (66) and low overall yards per game for the season.

Pick published: Sep 30 10:13am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 188

NCAAF Spread

Ball St. +1.5 -110

Lost: 24-42

Ball St. at Western Michigan

Sat Sep 30 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick based on our Similar Games model and Decision Tree model.
  • So far this year, Similar Games model picks rated 60% or higher are 28-15-2 ATS. Games rated 60% or higher in Similar Games and playable in the Decision Tree model are 9-3 ATS so far.
  • Over the last three years, Similar Games rated 60% or higher with picks on underdogs are 84-68 ATS.

Pick published: Sep 30 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 157

NCAAF Spread

Colorado +21.5 -105

Won: 41-48

Southern California at Colorado

Sat Sep 30 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game or loses by fewer than 22 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick and also rated as playable by our Similar Games Model at 59%.
  • Some of the model factors in this game are USC's low rate of picking up first downs by rush, their relatively poor rush defense by yards per carry (5.0), and Colorado's low rate of throwing interceptions.
  • This is also a 10 a.m. local kickoff time in Boulder (9 a.m. PT) and though this is not a model factor could be a subtle uncertainty factor for the underdog. Every USC game the last two years, besides last year's Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane, kicked off at 3 p.m. PT or later, and the last time the program played a game this early was the November season opener against Arizona State (won by 1 point as 11.5-point favorite).

Pick published: Sep 30 10:13am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 168

NCAAF Over/Under

UAB at Tulane Under 58.5 -105

Won: 58 points

Sat Sep 30 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB and Tulane combine for fewer than 59 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated Under in CFB this week.
  • Staff Pick Unders in CFB are 7-1 so far this year. 
  • Model factors for this game include both teams' high takeaways per game in recent games, Tulane's low opponent yards per game allowed so far this year (277), and UAB's high opponent completion rate allowed.

Pick published: Sep 29 5:31pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 208

NFL Moneyline

Rams To Win +124

Lost: 16-19

Rams at Bengals

Mon Sep 25 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Rams win the game at Cincinnati in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • This is also a line that is far off the expected moneyline based on full season power ratings (because of the uncertainty over Joe Burrow and his injury). Over the first two weeks, underdogs on the moneyline that are more than -10% off what we would expect based on power ratings are 5-2 for +5 units. (These also tend to be situations where injuries are impacting the line, beyond the base rating.)
  • Joe Burrow's status for this game is up in the air, but we like the pick whether he plays while still hurt (where the Bengals have been really bad on offense and he is averaging under 5 yards per attempt while limited) or Jake Browning, who has never completed a pass in the NFL and is 27 years old, starts instead.
  • The Rams are also a live dog, as they are 2nd in the NFL in total yards after two weeks and the offense has returned to form with a healthy Matthew Stafford, even without WR Cooper Kupp.

Pick published: Sep 20 5:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 479

MLB Team Future

Astros Under 95.5 Wins -112

Won: 85-71 with 6 games left

2023 MLB Season

More info

How it wins: The Houston Astros win fewer than 96 games in the 2023 Regular Season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Houston a 56.2% chance of finishing with fewer than 96 wins, with an average projected win total of 94.3.
  • Houston opens the season with several notable injuries, with Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley expected to miss significant time.
  • Houston's starting rotation depth has taken a hit this year with the loss of defending Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, and has very limited depth in the minor leagues. The team is now counting on 24-year-old rookie Hunter Brown to offset the 175 innings contributed by Verlander last season.
  • Divisional opponents Seattle, Texas, and Los Angeles have also added considerable talent in the offseason.

Pick published: Mar 29 6:40pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

MLB Team Future

White Sox Under 83.5 Wins -130

Won: 60-96 with 6 games left

2023 MLB Season

More info

How it wins: The Chicago White Sox finish with fewer than 84 wins in the 2023 Regular Season.

Staff notes:

  • This line is available at both 83.5 and 82.5 at various books, but we see the best value on the 83.5 at a little higher juice.
  • Our projections give the White Sox a 59.8% chance of finishing with 83 or fewer wins, and 55.1% of finishing with 82 or fewer wins this season, with an average projected wins of 81.4.
  • The White Sox lost reliable first baseman Jose Abreu (133 OPS+) and starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (118 ERA +) in the offseason. In addition, star closer Liam Hendriks is recovering from treatment for non-Hodgkin's lympoma with an uncertain return date.
  • New starting pitcher addition Mike Clevinger has struggled in Spring Training after a poor 2022 season with San Diego in which he returned from elbow surgery and showed diminished velocity.
  • Starting pitcher Michael Kopech is returning from knee surgery and has continued to show diminished velocity during Spring Training. He's also attempting to rebound from a season in which his ERA (3.54) greatly exceeded his ERA metrics (4.50 FIP, 4.73 SIERA).
  • The White Sox lack minor league depth, with the 28th ranked farm system, according to Baseball America

Pick published: Mar 29 6:40pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

MLB Team Future

Angels Over 81.5 Wins -130

Lost: 70-86 with 6 games left

2023 MLB Season

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Angels finish with more than 81 wins in the 2023 Regular Season.

Staff notes:

  • This line is available at 81.5 or 82.5 at various books, but we see the most value at this 81.5 number because our projections include a 4.8% chance the Angels finish with exactly 82 wins, and the juice difference is only -115 to -130 to get the extra win. 
  • We project the Angels for 82.8 wins on average.
  • Lacking depth in recent seasons, the Angels have addressed those issues with the notable additions of Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson, Carlos Estevez, and Matt Moore during the offseason, plus the arrival of top prospect catcher Logan O'Hoppe.
  • The team has depth beyond their initial six-man rotation, with former top prospect Griffin Canning now beyond multiple seasons of arm issues and Chase Silseth available at Triple-A. Additionally, top relief pitching prospect Ben Joyce is expected to contribute in the bullpen this season.
  • Injuries have played a major role in the team's recent struggles, but they enter the year with nearly all of their key players healthy, including Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani, and Taylor Ward.
  • Team brass has noted significant offseason improvements in stuff from starting pitchers Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez.

Pick published: Mar 29 6:40pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

NFL Spread

Raiders -2.5 -110

Lost: 18-23

Steelers at Raiders

Sun Sep 24 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Early line movement has already pushed this line over the last two days, but we think there is still value if you can jump in while it is below the key "field goal" number.
  • Pittsburgh won on Monday Night, but it wasn't pretty and they benefited from two defensive scores. The offense ran zero plays inside the Cleveland 30-yard line.
  • Pittsburgh is still without their top possession receiver Diontae Johnson (who went on IR before Week 2) and the other starting WR George Pickens was limited in practice due to a hamstring injury. Given that this offense is already 31st in total yards after two weeks, any impacts to the starters provides value against them.

Pick published: Sep 20 5:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 476

NFL Spread

Panthers +5.0 -110

Lost: 27-37

Panthers at Seahawks

Sun Sep 24 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second highest--rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Seattle is also very popular in our spread pool data at over 70% of the picks on Seattle in ATS pools and over 96% picking Seattle to win the game outright.
  • The line however is moving against Seattle, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.
  • Carolina is starting veteran Andy Dalton over first overall pick Bryce Young, but Dalton may be better able to exploit a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in yards and yards allowed per pass so far this year.

Pick published: Sep 24 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 469

NFL Spread

Cardinals +12.5 -110

Won: 28-16

Cowboys at Cardinals

Sun Sep 24 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points against Dallas in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 3, before any news.
  • We are adding it as a Staff Pick to grab the line, now that it has been reported that Dallas' star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL in practice today.
  • Our assessment is that Diggs is a valuable player, and if you think he is worth about 1-2 points, you are getting a little extra line value on an already large line, before the market has fully reacted.
  • Our models already favor Arizona with the large point spread because of some strong regression factors, including Dallas significantly outperforming their points so far relative to yards gained, and  having a +7 turnover margin through two games.

Pick published: Sep 21 4:39pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 472

NFL Spread

Broncos +6.0 -110

Lost: 20-70

Broncos at Dolphins

Sun Sep 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Week 3 based on our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Miami is also very popular in our spread pool data, and is the most popular spread pick on BetMGM.
  • The line however is moving against Miami, and against that public popularity. That is a situation that has been profitable to play against in the past, and so far this year, when our data shows over 70% popularity on one side, and the line has moved the other direction, the unpopular side is 3-1 ATS.

Pick published: Sep 24 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 461

NCAAF Spread

Fresno St. -27.5 -110

Won: 53-10

Kent St. at Fresno St.

Sat Sep 23 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State wins the game by more than 27 points against Kent State.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for this week in CFB.
  • Kent State has really struggled on offense in two games against FBS teams Central Florida and Arkansas, managing only 6 points in both games. The quarterback was sacked on nearly 20% of dropbacks in those two games.
  • Fresno State is coming off a dominant defensive performance, shutting out Arizona State on the road and recording five interceptions, and rank among the national leaders in rush defense.
  • Our models also like the combo of Fresno State's passing efficiency and high completion rate going against the Kent State defense, which allowed over 700 yards of offense and around 9 yards per play against Central Florida.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 430

NCAAF Spread

Nebraska -20.5 -110

Lost: 28-14

Louisiana Tech at Nebraska

Sat Sep 23 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Nebraska wins the game by more than 20 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our higher-rated model spread picks for Saturday in CFB.
  • We are adding it as a staff pick because of the injury situation with Louisiana Tech, where starting QB Hank Bachmeier, who transferred in from Boise State, sufferred a shoulder injury and is expected to miss. La Tech's leading rusher, freshman Keith Willis, Jr., also left the last game with an injury.
  • Nebraska also has a decision at QB, as coach Matt Rhule will decide between Heinrich Haarberg, who played in last week's game as Nebraska had over 500 yards of offense, or the struggling Jeff Sims, who missed the last game with injury but has returned to practice. Haarberg is expected to start.
  • Model factors for this game include Louisiana Tech's extremely bad opponent rushing yards per carry against in the last 7 games, La Tech's low rate of picking up first downs by rushing, and Nebraska's poor fumble recovery luck, which should regress.

Pick published: Sep 23 9:30am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 386

NCAAF Over/Under

UCLA at Utah Under 51.5 -110

Won: 21 points

Sat Sep 23 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCLA and Utah combine for fewer than 52 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model and currently our second-highest rated Under for this weekend in CFB.
  • The top-rated playable model Unders are 8-2 and all playable Unders are 26-16-1 so far this year
  • Model factors include Utah's extremely good rushing defense (2.68 yards per rush this year, 2.75 over last 7 games extending to last year), Utah's low opponent plays per game, Utah's high points per play, and UCLA's high rate of getting interceptions.

Pick published: Sep 23 9:30am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 366

NCAAF Over/Under

Southern Methodist at Texas Christian Under 63.5 -110

Won: 51 points

Sat Sep 23 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SMU and TCU combine for fewer than 64 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable Under for CFB this week.
  • The college football timing rules on first downs changed, and so far our models have performed really well on Unders, particularly those over 60 points.
  • Our highest-rated playable Unders are 8-2 so far this year (and the one loss last week, Colorado-Colorado State, required overtime to reach the number).
  • Some of the model factors include SMU's high number of plays per game, TCU's overperformance in recent games in points per play, and TCU's strong rush defense which ranks highly in low yards and low percentage of first downs surrendered rushing.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 384

NCAAF Spread

Georgia St. +6.5 -105

Won: 30-17

Georgia St. at Coastal Carolina

Thu Sep 21 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia State wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 at Coastal Carolina.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Thursday night matchup in college football.
  • Georgia State is off to a 3-0 start, and redshirt senior QB Darren Grainger is off to a hot start, completing over 70% of his passes, passing for over 800 yards, and throwing six touchdown passes. He is currently 8th in total yards per game in FBS and 11th in passer rating in the nation. Grainger is also from Conway, SC, and grew up 5 minutes from where the game will be played tonight.
  • This has been a series dominated by the road team, as the visitor has outright won all six prior meetings, and is 6-0 ATS. 

Pick published: Sep 21 12:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 303

NFL Over/Under

Giants at 49ers Under 44.0 -110

Won: 42 points

Thu Sep 21 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Giants and 49ers combine for fewer than 44 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Under for Week 3 of the NFL season.
  • The Giants will be without both RB Saquon Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas in this matchup.
  • San Francisco's Brandon Aiyuk has an injury and as of pick time is still uncertain for tonight (but given the short week is more likely to miss).
  • Given New York's struggles against a similarly-strong defensive unit in Dallas in the opener and the offensive injuries, this projects as a game where the offense will struggle, and the 49ers will likely be served by a more run-heavy approach to limit mistakes that would allow the Giants to win.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 302

NFL Spread

Panthers +3.0 -102

Push: 17-20

Saints at Panthers

Mon Sep 18 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread and moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Saints are one of the most popular picks showing up in our public pool data, so this is a chance to play against public sentiment. In game winner pools, 87% of the public is picking the Saints, and in spread pools, it?s 72%, making the Saints the current most popular spread pick in ATS pools. (In Week 1, the five most popular spread picks went 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU, all as favorites.)
  • The Panthers lost because of the -3 turnover margin, as they outgained Atlanta, and the defense held the Falcons to 221 total yards and 13 first downs.
  • The Saints hit some big plays (including a 41-yard bomb on third down to seal the win over the Titans) but only had 15 first downs in the 16-15 win, and struggled to run the ball (2.6 yards per carry) with Jamaal Williams, while Alvin Kamara is still suspended.

Pick published: Sep 13 5:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 290

NFL Spread

Jets +8.5 -105

Lost: 10-30

Jets at Cowboys

Sun Sep 17 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Jets win the game or lose by fewer than 9 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model plays for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • The line in this one immediately jumped 5-6 points from the look-ahead line on Monday, after the Aaron Rodgers injury.
  • This Jets team, though, is a strong defensive unit and one with playmaking skill players on offense (Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall) and this number jump may be too big a reaction (remember, just a year ago, it was Dallas in Week 2 who became a big underdog against Cincinnati because Dak Prescott was hurt and Cooper Rush was going to start).
  • Dallas also won 40-0 last week, but had only 265 yards of offense, and easily rank 1st in our yards per point measure, something that can be an indicator of regression.
  • There have been only five times in the last 15 years that a Week 1 team won and scored 30+ while having fewer than 300 yards, and they went 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS the next week. 

Pick published: Sep 17 10:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 283

NFL Over/Under

Packers at Falcons Under 40.5 -115

Lost: 49 points

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay and Atlanta combine for fewer than 41 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model Over/Under for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • Both of these teams were near the bottom of the league in pace of play in Week 1.
  • They both rank in the top 3 in yards per point in the first week, meaning they scored more points than you would expect on the yards they gained. Green Bay scored 38 points while gaining 329 yards and 15 first downs. Atlanta scored 24 points on 221 yards and 13 first downs. 
  • Atlanta has played a ball-control rush-heavy offense for last year and to start Week 1, and that style will likely dictate how Green Bay plays as well, especially with their injury situations.
  • Green Bay will still likely be without WR Christian Watson, who missed Week 1, and also looks unlikely to have RB Aaron Jones (127 yards and 2 TDs last week).

Pick published: Sep 17 10:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 266

NFL Spread

Bengals -3.5 -105

Lost: 24-27

Ravens at Bengals

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick, but we are recommending this because we think you can grab some line value based on Ravens' injuries.
  • Cincinnati is coming off a dreadful offensive performance, which can at least be partially excused because Joe Burrow got no practice time in the preseason with the calf injury, and the Browns have traditionally played him tough before last week. So you can get some Bengals' bounceback potential while they are relatively unpopular (the Bengals are the least popular of the 16 betting favorites in our pool data).
  • Baltimore has so many key injuries coming out of Week 1. They lost RB J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury. LT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum both sustained injuries and their status is in doubt (Linderbaum got rolled up late on this play.) S Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury. And today, CB Marlon Humphrey didn't practice because of a foot injury. So we think it's more likely that this line moves against Baltimore as injury absences become official.

Pick published: Sep 13 5:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 278

NFL Spread

Bears +3.0 -110

Lost: 17-27

Bears at Buccaneers

Sun Sep 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of top playable spread picks for Week 2 in the NFL.
  • Our models are picking up several regression factors that could provide value on the underdog in this matchup.
  • Tampa Bay won in an upset at Minnesota in Week 1, but were outgained by 127 yards, and benefited from a +3 turnover margin.
  • Chicago was the opposite, losing as a slight favorite to Green Bay, as the yards in the 38-20 loss were pretty even. Green Bay only had 15 first downs but had some big plays and a pick-six, and the Bears were -2 in turnovers.
  • While Baker Mayfield is getting some praise for the road upset, he still only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt in his Bucs debut. The Bucs also had only 73 rush yards on 33 attempts, so the offense wasn't very efficient but just bunched its key plays together.

Pick published: Sep 12 3:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 271

NFL Player Prop

Dallas Goedert Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 6 rec, 22 yards

Vikings at Eagles

Thu Sep 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas Goedert has more than 48 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Dallas Goedert had 0 catches in the Week 1 opener versus New England, and was only targeted once. It marked the first time since 2019 that the tight end had no catches.
  • This number is directly on where we would put Goedert's per-game average based on our preseason projections, but with the matchup against Minnesota and the likelihood that the Eagles' game plan seeks to establish Goedert early following last week's lack of usage, there is Over value.
  • After last week, head coach Nick Sirianni said: "This reminds me a lot of last year against the Lions," Sirianni said. "Smitty [WR DeVonta Smith] had no catches against the Lions last year. This year, it was Dallas. We can't go a game without getting him the football. He's too good of a playmaker but there are some things that the Patriots did that made it difficult for us to be able to get him some quick, easy touches."
  • After his previous lowest catch outing under Sirianni (Week 12 of 2021, 1 catch for 0 yards against the Giants), Goedert came back the next week and had one of the best games of his career, with 6 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs against the Jets. 
  • Since Jalen Hurts became starting QB in 2021, Goedert has had 49 or more receiving yards in 18 of 32 games (56%).

Pick published: Sep 14 4:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Over/Under

Colorado St. at Colorado Under 61.0 -110

Lost: 78 points

Sat Sep 16 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado and Colorado State combine for fewer than 61 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model Under picks for Week 3 in CFB.
  • So far in 2023, our highest-rated playable Unders are 7-1, and playable Unders are 19-8-1.
  • So far in 2023, in all games with a total of 60.0 or higher, the Under is 13-4.
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • After two games, Colorado ranks fifth nationally in plays per game, while Colorado State ranks 2nd to last in most plays against, both areas of regression providing Under value.

Pick published: Sep 14 4:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 208

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas Christian at Houston Under 64.5 -110

Won: 49 points

Sat Sep 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU and Houston combine for fewer than 65 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Under pick for Week 3 in CFB.
  • So far in 2023, our highest-rated playable Unders are 7-1, and playable Unders are 19-8-1.
  • So far in 2023, in all games with a total of 60.0 or higher, the Under is 13-4.
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • Early in the year, bot these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this large total.

Pick published: Sep 14 4:27pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 206

NFL Player Prop

Deonte Harty Over 17.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 3 catches, 9 yards

Bills at Jets

Mon Sep 11 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Deonte Harty finishes with more than 17 receiving yards in Week 1 Monday Night Football.

Staff notes:

  • Deonte Harty is very likely the Bills' starting slot WR based on preseason usage, as he was on the field for 75% of the snaps with the first team offense in the August 19th game, ahead of guys like Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield.
  • You might remember Harty as Deonte Harris, as he changed his last name to honor his stepfather. He missed most of last year with a turf toe injury with the Saints, but had over 500 yards receiving in 2021, and went over 20 yards in 10 of 12 games played that year.
  • So we think we are getting some value here on this number for a guy who could play a significant amount of snaps in the slot for Buffalo, because of uncertainty, not playing much last year, and playing with a new team. This is a Bills team that struggled to replace the Cole Beasley role last year (with Isaiah McKenzie/Shakir/Jamison Crowder) and Harty could be serving in that vital role.
  • There's also matchup-related reasons to like Harty here. The Jets' Sauce Gardner is one of the best cover corners in the NFL, and should be matched up on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the better opportunities might come for the Bills' slot and tight end spots.
  • Harty is a big YAC and quickness/speed guy and just needs a few opportunities to hit this number, maybe even one. 
  • We aren't listing it as an official play, but for a lot of the same reasons, we like Harty as a "any time TD scorer" for Buffalo at his longshot price (+650 at FD, +700 at DK). 

Pick published: Sep 11 2:38pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Future

J.K. Dobbins Over 750.5 Rushing Yards +100

Lost: 22 rush yards, torn Achilles out for year

Baltimore Ravens

2023 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: J.K. Dobbins rushes for more than 750 yards during the 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Dobbins is 933 rush yards for the 2023 season, more than 180 yards of Over value.
  • Our projections put Dobbins at RB21 in half-PPR scoring, very similar to his RB20 ranking on Underdog Fantasy.
  • The yards total market has gone down here, but we see that as an overreaction based on vague reports of Dobbins sitting out most of training camp. Reading between the lines, Dobbins was having a "sit-in" in protest of his contract but is ready to play. Nothing about the Ravens actions (no rumored interest in free agent veterans for example) suggests they are worried about Dobbins.
  • Baltimore doesn't have any significant depth behind Dobbins, so he should get a good amount of carries.
  • Dobbins had 500 yards in only 8 games last year coming back from missing the entire 2021 season due to a knee injury, and the market may be a little low here on the past injury info and raw rushing totals. 

Pick published: Aug 25 3:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Justin Fields Any Time TD Scorer +155

Lost: 0 TD

Packers at Bears

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields scores a rushing or receiving TD in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Last year, after the Bears switched up the offense for the New England game on Monday Night Football, he went on a streak of five straight games scoring a TD, until he suffered an injury that caused him to miss the Jets game (he only scored once after that while playing through injury.)
  • He comes into this game healthy, and with better weapons on the outside. Add in that the Bears are in a rivalry game and a slight favorite (a role they will likely not be in much over the year), so we project Fields to have a better than 40% chance of scoring.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop

Raheem Mostert Under 69.5 Rushing Yards -125

Won: 37 rush yards

Dolphins at Chargers

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Raheem Mostert rushes for fewer than 70 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This rushing prop is the sixth-highest of Week 1 at DraftKings, behind only Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Bijan Robinson.
  • This prop is as high as it is, likely, because (a) Jeff Wilson's injury likely makes Mostert the top running back in Miami to start the year, and (b) the Chargers rush defense was bad last year, allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry.
  • The 31-year-old Mostert would have only gone over this total in only four of 16 games last year while operating as the lead back in Miami.
  • We'll play into the uncertainty with this big number that is close to where the top six backs in the NFL (by average fantasy draft position) are going. The Chargers rush defense could improve with better Week 1 health and offseason changes, such as signing Eric Kendricks and getting Joey Bosa, and the Dolphins could still operate a committee in Week 1 with rookie DeVon Achane and Salvon Ahmed also playing, so that Mostert doesn't get the expected volume needed.
  • We also have Miami as a playable Under, and they are missing left tackle Terron Armstead for this game.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Dolphins at Chargers Under 51.0 -110

Lost: 70 points

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and the LA Chargers combine for fewer than 51 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under pick for Week 1 in the NFL.
  • Miami LT Terron Armstead has been officially ruled out for Sunday.
  • Miami averaged 16.3 points per game in the four games Armstead missed last season, and scored 17 in the game he left after 8 snaps. They averaged 26.3 points in all other games.

Pick published: Sep 8 8:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 474

NFL Spread

Patriots +4.0 -105

Lost: 20-25

Eagles at Patriots

Sun Sep 10 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model underdog spread pick for Week 1.
  • Over the last two NFL seasons, playable model underdog picks are 70-47-3 ATS (59.6%)
  • Philadelphia is coming off a Super Bowl season, and our models are a little lower than the market on the Eagles to start the year, based on some regression factors (extremely easy opponent schedule last year, injuries, rush-heavy team).
  • New England is coming off a year where they literally had a defensive coach (Matt Patricia) serving as offensive coordinator, and they have replaced him with an actual competent offensive coordinator in former Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, and that should provide value on the Patriots' offense relative to last year. 
  • New England is in a home underdog role, where they are 11-11 SU and 14-8 ATS under Bill Belichick.

Pick published: Sep 6 6:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 476

NFL Moneyline

Browns To Win +110

Won: 24-3

Bengals at Browns

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland wins the game in Week 1 against Cincinnati.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model plays on the moneyline for Week 1 and one of the picks featured in Wednesday's Upset Picks.
  • Cleveland has played well against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense in the past, including holding the Bengals to their lowest offensive output of the 2022 season.
  • Burrow is coming off a preseason where he suffered an early calf injury and had limited practice time.
  • There's some uncertainty upside on this Browns team as a home dog in the opener, as Deshaun Watson struggled in his late-season return last year after multiple years not playing, but the team could be a better passing team early in 2023.

Pick published: Sep 10 11:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 458

NFL Spread

Cardinals +7.0 -110

Won: 16-20

Cardinals at Commanders

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model underdog spread pick (and our top-rated moneyline play for Week 1, if you would rather play the moneyline).
  • Arizona is expected to be the worst team in the NFL this year, and QB Kyler Murray is starting the year on PUP, and the team is likely to start Josh Dobbs, who they acquired via trade two weeks ago, though they have not named a starter between he and rookie Clayton Tune.
  • Washington is the most popular spread pick in our pool spread data (with 77% of all pool players taking Washington) and is also being reported as an extremely popular spread pick by sportsbooks, yet the line has not budged.
  • Several trends point toward playing the uncertainty of opening day and the points here, while public sentiment is very down on Arizona.
  • Over the last 20 years, favorites of 4.5 or more points facing a Week 1 opponent with a new head coach are only 15-24 ATS.
  • Over that same span, only 13 Week 1 favorites of 4.5 or more had starting a QB who had started fewer than four games for the franchise. This could include cases like Trey Lance starting last year in San Francisco’s opener, and also cases where a team had a veteran (acquired in the offseason via free agency or trade) who was the starter. That group went 7-5-1 SU. All other bigger Week 1 favorites (with QBs who had played more games for the franchise) were 94-30.
  • It rarely comes up, but in that same data set, only five favorites drew an underdog starting a backup QB because the starter was out with injury or suspension, and those favorites only went 2-3 SU.
  • Washington's Sam Howell is making his second career start in the NFL, Arizona has a new coach (Jonathan Gannon) and QB, and this game has a lot of uncertainty factors that favor taking the points.

Pick published: Sep 6 6:50pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 467

NFL Spread

Texans +10.0 -110

Lost: 9-25

Texans at Ravens

Sun Sep 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game or lose by fewer than 10 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 1.
  • There are also several trends that favor Houston in this matchup.
  • Since 2003, there have been only 31 games where the Week 1 spread was 9 points or higher. Favorites are 26-5 SU but only 9-22 ATS in those games.
  • We have a database of coach and QB factors, and since 2003, there have been only 39 Week 1 games where a team was an underdog of 4.5 points while playing its first game with a new head coach. The underdog with the new head coach is 24-15 ATS over that span. 
  • There have been only 15 games where the underdog of 4.5 points or more was starting a rookie QB in Week 1 in the last 20 years. The team starting the rookie QB is 5-10 SU but 10-5 ATS.
  • Houston is now coached by former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, and just named rookie QB C.J. Stroud as the Week 1 starter.
  • We have admittedly small sample sizes in these real-life cases of rookie QBs and coaches, but there is reason to believe that the market probably does overvalue certainty and teams/coaches/QBs it has seen before, and there is value on the new coaches and young QBs in their debut, when getting a lot of points. 
  • This line is at +9.5 to +10 at various books, so we would recommend grabbing the +10 if you can. It's fine to play at +9.5 but you should shop and wait to see if you can get the key 10 number if possible.

Pick published: Aug 29 5:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 455

NCAAF Spread

Southern Miss +31.0 -110

Lost: 13-66

Southern Miss at Florida St.

Sat Sep 9 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Miss wins the game or loss by fewer than 31 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread pick for Week 2 in CFB.
  • Florida State is coming off a 45-24 win as a dog against LSU on Sunday.
  • The yardage in that game was fairly even, with the difference being FSU going 4-for-4 in the red zone, coverting 64% of third downs, while LSU missed two red zone opps, was 0-3 on 4th down, and converted 30% of third downs.

Pick published: Sep 8 8:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 389

NCAAF Over/Under

Southern Methodist at Oklahoma Under 69.0 -110

Won: 39 points

Sat Sep 9 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SMU and Oklahoma combine for fewer than 69 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
  • In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
  • Over the previous five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • After one week, these teams both rank top 15 nationally in plays ran, an area of regression potential, so we'll play under this really large total.

Pick published: Sep 7 5:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 338

NCAAF Spread

Texas El Paso -1.5 -110

Lost: 7-38

Texas El Paso at Northwestern

Sat Sep 9 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTEP beats Northwestern by more than 1 point in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 2, up to -2.5 if the line moves (it's already at -2 in some places).
  • This line opened with UTEP as the underdog, but has quickly shifted this week.
  • Northwestern is still dealing with the fallout of firing head coach Pat Fitzgerald, and lost their opener to Rutgers by 17 points.
  • We'll play on value on Northwestern being a bad football team dealing with a lot of turnover and changes.

Pick published: Sep 7 5:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 353

NCAAF Over/Under

Mississippi at Tulane Under 67.0 -110

Won: 57 points

Sat Sep 9 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ole Miss and Tulane combine for fewer than 67 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model Under pick for Week 2.
  • In Week 1, playable Unders went 9-4, and playable Unders on games with a total of 65 or higher went 3-0.
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • Ole Miss was 5th nationally in plays run last year.
  • Tulane benefited from big plays and turnovers in getting to 37 points against South Alabama, running only 53 total plays, and averaging nearly 20 yards per pass attempt. 

Pick published: Sep 7 5:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 350

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas-San Antonio at Houston Under 60.0 -110

Won: 31 points

Sat Sep 2 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTSA and Houston combine for fewer than 60 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Under play for Week 1 in College Football.
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • Houston and UTSA were both above average in plays per game last year, with UTSA ranking 12th in the category nationally.
  • Both teams were in the top 16 last year in completed passes.

Pick published: Sep 1 5:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 212

NCAAF Over/Under

South Florida at Western Kentucky Under 70.5 -110

Won: 65 points

Sat Sep 2 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Florida and Western Kentucky combine for fewer than 71 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest rated Under for Week 1 of CFB.
  • The college football timing rules changed this offseason to eliminate clock stoppages after first downs, and it will have an impact on number of plays in a game. 
  • It should impact teams that run a higher number of plays and pass for first downs more (since these teams would have been more likely to have time saved on the previous clock stoppage rules).
  • Western Kentucky was 2nd in completed passes per game (behind only Mississippi State) last season.
  • Over the last five seasons, games with totals of 68.0 or higher have gone Under 57% of the time (153-115-2).

Pick published: Sep 1 5:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 208

NCAAF Spread

Arkansas St. +36.5 -110

Lost: 0-73

Arkansas St. at Oklahoma

Sat Sep 2 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas State wins the game or loses by fewer than 37 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Week 1.
  • Oklahoma was one of our larger market adjustments, as the market seems more optimistic about big improvement from the Sooners in year 2 under Brent Venables, after the program had its worst season in over 20 years last year in his debut replacing Lincoln Riley.
  • Even with that big market adjustment, we show value on this line, which we would have at closer to 30 based on the power ratings of the two teams. It's not that we think Arkansas State is very good (No. 115 of 133 teams in our preseason ratings), but that Oklahoma is just laying too many points.
  • The Sooners should be able to run the ball and also play backups, as they have a matchup with SMU next week, and we'll take the points here in a game that could be shortened in total plays by Oklahoma leading comfortably while still covering, with the new timing rules. 

Pick published: Sep 1 5:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 163

NCAAF Spread

Georgia Tech +7.5 -115

Won: 34-39

Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

Fri Sep 1 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • Georgia Tech had an in-season turnaround last year after the school fired Geoff Collins and replaced him with Brent Key after four games.
  • Under Key, the team surprised by going 4-4 in ACC play, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog, including two wins as a dog of 20+ points. He was rewarded by getting the full-time job this offseason. 
  • Louisville will be in its first game with new head coach Jeff Brohm, who left Purdue to go to his alma mater, and will have 26 transfers on the roster.
  • Both teams will have new quarterbacks, with Georgia Tech starting Texas A&M transfer Haynes King over two incumbents who played down the stretch last season.
  • We'll play on the improvement of Georgia Tech under Key being real, and potentially better on offense with a QB upgrade, and the uncertainty with all the changes at Louisville in this opener.
  • Try to get this game above the key 7 number.

Pick published: Aug 30 4:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 154

NCAAF Spread

Central Florida -35.5 -110

Won: 56-6

Kent St. at Central Florida

Thu Aug 31 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Florida wins the game by more than 35 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread pick in CFB on Thursday, and one of the highest-rated ones for Week 1.
  • Kent State is rated as our No. 133 team (out of 133) in FBS this year.
  • Kent State has a massive amount of turnover, as head coach Sean Lewis left after the season to become offensive coordinator at Colorado following Deion Sanders' hire there, and lots of players transferred out of the program. In fact, of the nine players who where selected to an all-MAC team from last year's 5-7 squad, all of them are now gone, including QB Colin Schlee (UCLA).
  • So we will play against the large amount of turnover in the Kent State program and on a blowout in a talent mismatch here.
  • NOTE: this game is in Orlando on Thursday night, and much of the state of Florida has been in a state of emergency following Hurricane Idalia. But the path went north of Orlando and all indications are that the game is on as scheduled.

Pick published: Aug 30 4:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 142

NCAAF Over/Under

Navy vs. Notre Dame Over 50.5 -110

Lost: 45 points

Sat Aug 26 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Navy and Notre Dame combine for more than 50 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated over/under play for "Week 0" of the college football season.
  • Navy has struggled defensively in recent openers, allowing an average of 50 points in the first game against an FBS opponent in four losses (all went over). 
  • Over the last two seasons, playable college football over/unders are 347-298-7 (53.8%).

Pick published: Aug 22 5:41pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 299

NCAAF Spread

Notre Dame -20.5 -108

Won: 42-3

Navy vs. Notre Dame

Sat Aug 26 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Notre Dame wins the game against Navy by more than 20 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for "Week 0" of College Football, at over 55% estimated cover odds.
  • Navy is entering this game with a new head coach (Brian Newberry) for the first time in 15 seasons.
  • Navy has struggled in season openers of late, going 1-4 ATS in their first game against an FBS opponent the last five years, allowing an average of 50.0 points in those losses, and failing to cover the spread by an average of 34 points.
  • Over the last two seasons, playable college football spread picks rated as 55% or higher coer odds have gone 51-40 (56%). 

Pick published: Aug 22 5:41pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 300

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win +125

Won: 5-2

Marlins at Reds

Mon Aug 7 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against Miami on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model and Ensemble Forecast Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Brandon Williamson of Cincinnati and Eury Perez of Miami. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Aug 7 4:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Phillies To Win -110

Won: 6-4

Orioles at Phillies

Wed Jul 26 • 6:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game against Baltimore on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Ranger Suarez of Philadelphia and Kyle Bradish of Baltimore. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 26 4:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 972

MLB Moneyline

Dodgers To Win -120

Lost: 3-6

Blue Jays at Dodgers

Mon Jul 24 • 10:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: The LA Dodgers win the game against Toronto on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Michael Grove of Los Angeles and Jose Berrios of Toronto. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 24 5:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Brewers To Win +120

Won: 4-3

Braves at Brewers

Sat Jul 22 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game against Atlanta on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser of Milwaukee and Allan Winans of Atlanta. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 22 2:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 960

MLB Moneyline

Giants To Win -108

Lost: 2-3

Giants at Reds

Wed Jul 19 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game against Cincinnati on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Ross Stripling of San Francisco and Graham Ashcraft of Cincinnati. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 19 4:47pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 905

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -130

Won: 6-5

Guardians at Rangers

Sun Jul 16 • 2:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Martin Perez of Texas and Tanner Bibee of Cleveland.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 16 9:51am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 964

MLB Moneyline

White Sox To Win -104

Won: 8-7

Cardinals at White Sox

Fri Jul 7 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease of Chicago and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 928

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -108

Lost: 1-2

Braves at Rays

Fri Jul 7 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Atlanta on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Tyler Glasnow of Tampa Bay and Charlie Morton of Atlanta.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 922

MLB Moneyline

Marlins To Win +115

Lost: 3-4

Phillies at Marlins

Fri Jul 7 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Sandy Alcantara of Miami and Zack Wheeler of New York. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 7 3:23pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 902

MLB Moneyline

Brewers To Win -112

Lost: 6-7

Cubs at Brewers

Tue Jul 4 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game against Chicago on the 4th of July.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Wade Miley of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks of Chicago.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 4 2:08pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 958

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win +130

Lost: 5-8

Mets at Diamondbacks

Tue Jul 4 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against the New York Mets on the 4th of July.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Zach Davies of Arizona and Kodai Senga of the Mets.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jul 4 2:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Orioles To Win -130

Won: 10-3

Reds at Orioles

Mon Jun 26 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game against Cincinnati on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin of Baltimore and Brandon Williamson of Cincinnati. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 26 2:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 958

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +130

Lost: 3-9

Cardinals at Nationals

Tue Jun 20 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against St. Louis on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is MacKenzie Gore of Washington and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 20 5:23pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Brewers To Win -115

Lost: 1-9

Diamondbacks at Brewers

Mon Jun 19 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game against Arizona on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Corbin Burnes of Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly of Arizona. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 19 6:45pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 908

MLB Moneyline

Athletics To Win +205

Lost: 2-3

Phillies at Athletics

Sun Jun 18 • 4:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oakland wins the game against Philadelphia on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Hogan Harris of Oakland and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 976

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -135

Won: 11-7

Blue Jays at Rangers

Sun Jun 18 • 2:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Toronto on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Chris Bassitt of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 966

MLB Moneyline

Mets To Win -130

Lost: 7-8

Cardinals at Mets

Sun Jun 18 • 1:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Mets win the game against St. Louis on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and Matthew Liberatore of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 18 12:24pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Astros To Win -190

Lost: 1-4

Nationals at Astros

Thu Jun 15 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game against Washington on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Cristian Javier of Houston and MacKenzie Gore of Washington.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 15 5:06pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 916

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +205

Lost: 3-6

Rockies at Red Sox

Wed Jun 14 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against Boston on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Austin Gomber of Colorado and Garrett Whitlock of Boston. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 14 1:59pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 967

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win -110

Won: 7-4

Reds at Royals

Wed Jun 14 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against Kansas City on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Ben Lively of Cincinnati and Daniel Lynch of Kansas City.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 14 1:59pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 971

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -155

Lost: 6-9

Angels at Rangers

Mon Jun 12 • 8:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Dane Dunning of Texas and Tyler Anderson of Los Angeles.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 12 2:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +205

Won: 4-3

Rockies at Red Sox

Mon Jun 12 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against Boston on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Connor Seabold of Colorado and James Paxton of Boston. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 12 2:43pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 961

MLB Moneyline

Angels To Win -130

Lost: 2-6

Mariners at Angels

Sat Jun 10 • 10:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: Los Angeles wins the game against Seattle on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Patrick Sandoval of Los Angeles and Bryan Woo of Seattle. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 10 3:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 974

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win -115

Won: 14-7

Mets at Pirates

Fri Jun 9 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against the New York Mets on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Rich Hill of Pittsburgh and Tylor Megill of New York. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 9 6:26pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 904

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -115

Won: 4-2

Twins at Rays

Thu Jun 8 • 1:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Minnesota on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Yonny Chirinos of Tampa Bay and Bailey Ober of Minnesota. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 8 12:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 960

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -145

Lost: 0-1

Cardinals at Rangers

Wed Jun 7 • 8:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against St. Louis on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Jack Flaherty of St. Louis. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 7 1:12pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 928

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -130

Won: 2-1

Twins at Rays

Wed Jun 7 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Minnesota on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Shawn Armstrong of Tampa Bay (an opener) and Pablo Lopez of Minnesota. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 7 1:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 910

MLB Moneyline

Blue Jays To Win -125

Lost: 4-11

Astros at Blue Jays

Mon Jun 5 • 7:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: Toronto wins the game against Houston on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Alek Manoah of Toronto and Brandon Bielak of Houston. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Jun 5 8:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 906

MLB Moneyline

Astros To Win -122

Lost: 5-7

Twins at Astros

Mon May 29 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game against Minnesota on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is J.P. France of Houston and Sonny Gray of Minnesota.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 29 10:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 962

MLB Moneyline

Twins To Win +140

Lost: 1-3

Blue Jays at Twins

Fri May 26 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game against Toronto on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Louie Varland of Minnesota against Kevin Gausman of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 26 11:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 914

MLB Moneyline

Yankees To Win -132

Lost: 1-3

Orioles at Yankees

Thu May 25 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Yankees win the game against Baltimore on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Clarke Schmidt of New York against Kyle Gibson of Baltimore. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 25 10:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 968

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +148

Lost: 2-10

Marlins at Rockies

Wed May 24 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against Miami on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Karl Kauffmann of Colorado and Sandy Alcantara of Miami. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 24 3:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 912

MLB Moneyline

Royals To Win +132

Won: 4-1

Tigers at Royals

Tue May 23 • 7:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against Detroit on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Mike Mayers of Kansas City against Eduardo Rodriguez of Detroit.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 23 2:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Angels To Win -115

Won: 2-1

Red Sox at Angels

Mon May 22 • 9:38pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Angels win the game against the Boston Red Sox on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jaime Barria of Los Angeles against Tanner Houck of Boston.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 22 12:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 916

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -110

Won: 6-4

Blue Jays at Rays

Mon May 22 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Toronto on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley as the opener for Tampa Bay, with Josh Fleming as the primary pitcher, against Chris Bassitt for Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. When backing teams using an opener over that span, the model has performed even better.

Pick published: May 22 12:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 912

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win -134

Won: 6-4

Tigers at Nationals

Sun May 21 • 1:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against Detroit on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Josiah Gray of Washington and Joey Wentz of Detroit. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 21 12:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 972

MLB Moneyline

Braves To Win -115

Won: 3-2

Mariners at Braves

Sun May 21 • 1:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against Seattle on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jared Schuster of Atlanta and George Kirby of Seattle.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 21 12:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Angels To Win +110

Won: 5-4

Twins at Angels

Fri May 19 • 9:38pm ET

More info

How it wins: The LA Angels win the game against Minnesota on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Reid Detmers of LA and Joe Ryan of Minnesota.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 19 11:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 966

MLB Moneyline

White Sox To Win -126

Won: 2-0

Royals at White Sox

Fri May 19 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago White Sox win the game against Kansas City on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Michael Kopech of Chicago and Zack Greinke of Kansas City.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 19 11:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 964

MLB Moneyline

Guardians To Win +120

Lost: 2-7

Guardians at White Sox

Wed May 17 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Peyton Battenfield of Cleveland against Mike Clevinger of Chicago. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 17 1:56pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 965

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win -150

Lost: 8-9

Diamondbacks at Athletics

Tue May 16 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against Oakland on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona against Tyler Muller of Oakland. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 925

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win +138

Won: 8-5

Rays at Mets

Tue May 16 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against the New York Mets on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jalen Beeks of Tampa Bay against Justin Verlander of the Mets. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. The ROI has been higher in games involving an opener like Tampa Bay is using for this game.

Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 919

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win +108

Lost: 0-4

Pirates at Tigers

Tue May 16 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against Detroit on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Luis Ortiz of Pittsburgh and Michael Lorenzen of Detroit. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 16 11:06am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 917

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +102

Lost: 1-9

Cardinals at Red Sox

Sun May 14 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against St. Louis on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 14 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 930

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win +120

Won: 2-1

Giants at Diamondbacks

Sun May 14 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against San Francisco on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Brandon Pfaadt of Arizona against Logan Webb of San Francisco.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 14 12:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 910

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +126

Won: 3-2

Mets at Nationals

Sat May 13 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against New York on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Trevor Williams of Washington against Joey Lucchesi of New York.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 954

MLB Moneyline

Royals To Win +140

Lost: 3-4

Royals at Brewers

Sat May 13 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against Milwaukee on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke of Kansas City against Adrian Houser of Milwaukee.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 979

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -140

Won: 5-0

Rangers at Athletics

Sat May 13 • 4:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Oakland on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and J.P. Sears of Oakland.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 965

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win -130

Lost: 3-4

Cardinals at Red Sox

Sat May 13 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against St. Louis on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston against Miles Mikolas of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 13 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 976

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win -115

Lost: 6-8

Cardinals at Red Sox

Fri May 12 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against San Francisco on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is James Paxton of Boston against Adam Wainwright of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 12 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 926

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win +155

Lost: 5-6

Rays at Yankees

Fri May 12 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against the New York Yankees on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Trevor Kelley of Tampa Bay against Gerrit Cole of New York. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 
  • We are getting the division-leading Rays as an underdog here because of the pitching matchup, but when playing on teams using openers (like Tampa Bay tonight) the models have performed at over 10% ROI.

Pick published: May 12 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 913

MLB Moneyline

Royals To Win +130

Lost: 2-4

White Sox at Royals

Tue May 9 • 7:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against the White Sox on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles of Kansas City against Lucas Giolito of Chicago. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 9 3:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win +100

Lost: 4-5

Marlins at Cubs

Sun May 7 • 2:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs win the game against Miami on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Hayden Wesneski of Chicago and Sandy Alcantara of Miami.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 7 10:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 954

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win +112

Lost: 1-10

Blue Jays at Pirates

Sun May 7 • 1:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against Toronto on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Roansy Contreras of Pittsburgh and Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 7 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 976

MLB Moneyline

Twins To Win -135

Lost: 0-2

Twins at Guardians

Sun May 7 • 1:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Joe Ryan of Minnesota and Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 7 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 963

MLB Moneyline

Orioles To Win +205

Lost: 4-5

Orioles at Braves

Sat May 6 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game against Atlanta on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Kyle Bradish of Baltimore and Spencer Strider of Atlanta.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 6 4:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 927

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win +130

Lost: 2-8

Blue Jays at Pirates

Sat May 6 • 6:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against Toronto on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Johan Oviedo of Pittsburgh and Jose Berrios of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 6 4:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Tigers To Win +190

Won: 5-4

Tigers at Cardinals

Fri May 5 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Detroit wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Matthew Boyd of Detroit and Jordan Montgomery of St. Louis.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 979

MLB Moneyline

Orioles To Win +184

Won: 9-4

Orioles at Braves

Fri May 5 • 7:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game against Atlanta on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Dean Kremer of Baltimore and Max Fried of Atlanta.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 977

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +140

Won: 5-3

Red Sox at Phillies

Fri May 5 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Chris Sale of Boston and Zack Wheeler of Philadelphia.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 975

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win -110

Lost: 4-5

White Sox at Reds

Fri May 5 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Hunter Greene of Cincinnati and Lance Lynn of Chicago.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 5 4:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 974

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +120

Won: 8-3

Blue Jays at Red Sox

Wed May 3 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against Toronto on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta of Boston and Alek Manoah of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 3 2:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 964

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win +185

Lost: 1-8

Pirates at Rays

Wed May 3 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Mitch Keller of Pittsburgh and Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 3 2:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 975

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win +130

Won: 6-4

Diamondbacks at Rangers

Tue May 2 • 8:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Arizona on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Jon Gray of Texas and Zac Gallen of Arizona.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 928

MLB Moneyline

Tigers To Win +135

Won: 6-5

Mets at Tigers

Wed May 3 • 1:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Detroit wins the game against the New York Mets on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Michael Lorenzen vs. Joey Lucchesi of New York.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 
  • This game was marked "no action" since it was rained out on Tuesday, re-scheduled for Wednesday for the early game in a split doubleheader with a different total, and different listed starting pitcher for Detroit.
     

Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 982

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +112

Won: 7-6

Blue Jays at Red Sox

Tue May 2 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against Toronto on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck of Boston vs. Yusei Kikuchi of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 2 3:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 914

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +130

Won: 6-5

Blue Jays at Red Sox

Mon May 1 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against Toronto on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Corey Kluber of Boston vs. Jose Berrios of Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 1 1:20pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 962

MLB Moneyline

Yankees To Win -130

Lost: 2-3

Guardians at Yankees

Mon May 1 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Yankees win the game against Cleveland on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Domingo German for New York vs. Cal Quantrill of Cleveland.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: May 1 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 960

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win -130

Lost: 4-12

Diamondbacks at Rockies

Sun Apr 30 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against Colorado on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Ryne Nelson of Arizona vs. Austin Gomber for Colorado.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Apr 30 1:15pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 909

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win +105

Won: 15-2

Yankees at Rangers

Sun Apr 30 • 2:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against the New York Yankees on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Martin Perez of Texas vs. Nestor Cortes of New York. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. 

Pick published: Apr 30 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win -118

Won: 11-4

Diamondbacks at Rockies

Sat Apr 29 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against Colorado on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Tommy Henry of Arizona vs. Noah Davis of Colorado.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 29 12:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 959

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -130

Won: 12-3

Rays at White Sox

Sat Apr 29 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Calvin Faucher opening for Tampa Bay followed by Yonny Chirinos vs. Lance Lynn of Chicago. 
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks. Our similar games model has also shown a ROI of close to 10% when picking teams using an opener.

Pick published: Apr 29 12:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 973

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win +148

Lost: 2-4

Yankees at Rangers

Thu Apr 27 • 8:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against the New York Yankees on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Thursday by our Similar Games Model.
  • The pitching matchup is Andrew Heaney of Texas vs. Gerrit Cole of New York.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 27 12:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win -108

Lost: 3-5

Padres at Cubs

Wed Apr 26 • 7:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs win the game against San Diego on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
  • The starting pitcher matchup is Drew Smyly for the Cubs and Michael Wacha for San Diego.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 26 3:58pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 908

MLB Moneyline

White Sox To Win +175

Lost: 0-7

White Sox at Blue Jays

Tue Apr 25 • 7:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago White Sox wins the game against Toronto on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • This is also a playable pick by our Decision Tree and Power Ratings models.
  • The starting pitcher matchup is Mike Clevinger for the White Sox and Jose Berrios for Toronto.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 25 3:49pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 965

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win -140

Won: 5-4

Royals at Diamondbacks

Mon Apr 24 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against Kansas City on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 24 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 922

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win +100

Won: 7-6

Rangers at Reds

Mon Apr 24 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against Texas on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 24 1:21pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 918

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win +130

Lost: 5-7

Padres at Diamondbacks

Sun Apr 23 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 23 12:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 958

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win +125

Lost: 3-7

Dodgers at Cubs

Sun Apr 23 • 2:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs win the game against the LA Dodgers on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 23 12:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win +135

Lost: 3-5

Padres at Diamondbacks

Sat Apr 22 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 22 11:23am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 910

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win +115

Lost: 4-9

Dodgers at Cubs

Sat Apr 22 • 2:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs win the game against the LA Dodgers on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 22 11:23am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 902

MLB Moneyline

Royals To Win +245

Lost: 0-2

Royals at Angels

Fri Apr 21 • 9:38pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game against the LA Angels on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 969

MLB Moneyline

Mariners To Win -130

Won: 5-2

Cardinals at Mariners

Fri Apr 21 • 10:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins the game against St. Louis on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 980

MLB Moneyline

Braves To Win -115

Lost: 4-6

Astros at Braves

Fri Apr 21 • 7:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game against Houston on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 974

MLB Moneyline

Yankees To Win -130

Lost: 1-6

Blue Jays at Yankees

Fri Apr 21 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York Yankees win the game against Toronto on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 964

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +270

Lost: 3-4

Rockies at Phillies

Fri Apr 21 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against Philadelphia on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top-rated play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 21 11:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 955

MLB Moneyline

Astros To Win +100

Won: 8-1

Blue Jays at Astros

Wed Apr 19 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game against Toronto on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +125

Lost: 0-4

Orioles at Nationals

Wed Apr 19 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against Baltimore on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 980

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win -124

Won: 14-3

Pirates at Rockies

Wed Apr 19 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against Colorado on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 19 1:13pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 955

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +126

Lost: 0-1

Orioles at Nationals

Tue Apr 18 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against Baltimore on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 18 12:16pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -130

Won: 10-0

Rays at Reds

Tue Apr 18 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Cincinnati on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 18 12:16pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 921

MLB Moneyline

Padres To Win +128

Lost: 0-2

Braves at Padres

Mon Apr 17 • 9:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Diego wins the game against Atlanta on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 17 10:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 958

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win +165

Lost: 3-14

Phillies at Reds

Sun Apr 16 • 1:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against Philadelphia on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 16 9:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 904

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +205

Won: 7-6

Guardians at Nationals

Sun Apr 16 • 1:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against Cleveland on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as our top plays for Sunday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 16 9:16am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win +100

Won: 9-7

Angels at Red Sox

Sat Apr 15 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against the LA Angels on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as our top plays for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 15 8:10am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 968

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win +144

Won: 6-2

Rangers at Astros

Fri Apr 14 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Houston on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 919

MLB Moneyline

Giants To Win -145

Lost: 5-7

Giants at Tigers

Fri Apr 14 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game against Detroit on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 921

MLB Run Line

Rays -1.5 +134

Lost: 3-6

Rays at Blue Jays

Fri Apr 14 • 7:07pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game by more than one run against Toronto on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Friday in MLB.
  • Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 913

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +135

Lost: 3-4

Guardians at Nationals

Fri Apr 14 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against Cleveland on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Friday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 14 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -165

Lost: 1-10

Royals at Rangers

Wed Apr 12 • 8:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas wins the game against Kansas City on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 924

MLB Moneyline

Orioles To Win -180

Lost: 4-8

Athletics at Orioles

Wed Apr 12 • 6:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game against Oakland on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 12 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 918

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -125

Won: 9-7

Red Sox at Rays

Wed Apr 12 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Boston on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 920

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +150

Lost: 4-7

Cardinals at Rockies

Wed Apr 12 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado beats St. Louis on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as our top play for Wednesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 12 1:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 904

NBA Team Future

Pelicans To Win Southwest Division +350

Lost: Memphis wins division

2022-2023 NBA Season

More info

How it wins: The New Orleans Pelicans win the Southwest Division in 2022-23.

Staff notes:

  • The Pelicans started the season strong, winning 130-108 on the road against the Nets.
  • As of November 20, we project New Orleans with a 38% to win the Southwest Division. At that percentage, the break-even moneyline for the Pelicans to win the Southwest is +160.
  • We originally projected the Pelicans with very slight value on division win futures before the season started, but that value has increased after the first game. You might think that one game can't tell us that much about a team. But historically when our projected division odds have made similar jumps (from similar starting points) after one game, the updated odds have been well calibrated, with those teams winning the division slightly more often than we predicted.
  • The Pelicans also did well in the preseason, which has been shown to have some predictive value.
  • Besides the +350 line available at FanDuel and BetMGM, this bet is also available at +340 at PointsBet.

Pick published: Oct 20 12:39pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

MLB Moneyline

Nationals To Win +260

Lost: 0-2

Nationals at Angels

Tue Apr 11 • 9:38pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game against the LA Angels on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 979

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win -118

Won: 14-9

Mariners at Cubs

Tue Apr 11 • 7:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs beat Seattle on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 978

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +155

Lost: 6-9

Cardinals at Rockies

Tue Apr 11 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against St. Louis on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top rated play for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 958

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win +200

Lost: 6-7

Reds at Braves

Tue Apr 11 • 7:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati wins the game against Atlanta on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Tuesday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 11 12:55pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 955

MLB Run Line

Cardinals -1.5 +105

Lost: 4-7

Cardinals at Rockies

Mon Apr 10 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Louis beats Colorado by more than one run on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Monday in MLB.
  • Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 10 12:31pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 907

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win +130

Won: 3-2

Mariners at Cubs

Mon Apr 10 • 7:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs beat Seattle on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as one of our top plays for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 10 12:31pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 926

MLB Moneyline

Twins To Win -102

Lost: 3-4

White Sox at Twins

Mon Apr 10 • 2:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota beats Chicago on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Monday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 10 12:30pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 914

MLB Moneyline

Pirates To Win +110

Lost: 5-11

White Sox at Pirates

Sat Apr 8 • 6:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play for Saturday by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 8 8:37am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 930

MLB Moneyline

Athletics To Win +235

Lost: 0-11

Athletics at Rays

Sat Apr 8 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oakland wins the game against Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as the second-highest play by our Similar Games Model.
  • It is also a top-rated play by our Decision Tree model for both the moneyline and run line.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 8 8:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 917

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win -120

Lost: 5-10

Nationals at Rockies

Fri Apr 7 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against Washington on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 7 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 956

MLB Moneyline

Athletics To Win +225

Lost: 5-9

Athletics at Rays

Fri Apr 7 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oakland wins the game against Tampa Bay on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our second-highest-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 7 12:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 961

MLB Moneyline

Red Sox To Win -145

Lost: 1-4

Pirates at Red Sox

Wed Apr 5 • 1:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Boston wins the game against Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and our top-rated Similar Games Model play for today in MLB.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 5 10:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 974

MLB Run Line

Nationals +1.5 +140

Lost: 2-7

Rays at Nationals

Wed Apr 5 • 1:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by one run on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Decision Tree model run line play for Wednesday in MLB.
  • Our top-rated Decision Tree run line plays have shown solid ROI over the last three seasons in MLB, and will be highlighted in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 5 10:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 970

MLB Moneyline

Rockies To Win +220

Lost: 2-5

Rockies at Dodgers

Tue Apr 4 • 10:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game against the LA Dodgers on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 4 11:32am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 909

MLB Moneyline

Rays To Win -170

Won: 10-6

Rays at Nationals

Tue Apr 4 • 7:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay wins the game against Washington on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 4 11:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 925

MLB Moneyline

Diamondbacks To Win +128

Won: 8-6

Diamondbacks at Padres

Tue Apr 4 • 4:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game against San Diego on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 4 11:33am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 901

MLB Moneyline

Tigers To Win +195

Won: 7-6

Tigers at Astros

Mon Apr 3 • 8:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Detroit wins the game against Houston on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 3 4:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 965

NCAAB Spread

Connecticut -7.5 -102

Won: 76-59

San Diego St. vs. Connecticut

Mon Apr 3 • 9:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins by more than 7 points in the national title game.

Staff notes:

  • We will close out the college basketball season by continuing to ride the Connecticut Huskies, who have been outperforming the market expectations significantly all tournament. 
  • Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +25.1. 
  • Connecticut is tied for 2nd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
  • San Diego State has also played well in the NCAA Tournament, but their most similar performances with the lineup usage they have employed in the tournament is at +15.3, nearly 10 points lower.
  • Both teams play a deep lineup and have versatility to adjust in game, the difference is Connecticut's offensive efficiency. Both are top 10 in defensive efficiency, but Connecticut is 3rd and San Diego State 68th in offensive efficiency.
  • San Diego State is elite at three-point defense (28.1%) but Connecticut is 8-2 ATS against top 100 teams in three-point defense, and is 7-0 SU and ATS against top 20 defensive efficiency teams.

Pick published: Apr 3 12:49pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 712

MLB Moneyline

Reds To Win +105

Won: 7-6

Cubs at Reds

Mon Apr 3 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Reds win the game against the Cubs on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 3 4:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 954

MLB Moneyline

Brewers To Win -112

Won: 10-0

Mets at Brewers

Mon Apr 3 • 2:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee wins the game over the Mets on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and rated as a top play by our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Apr 3 12:56pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 952

NCAAB Over/Under

Miami vs. Connecticut Under 149.5 -110

Won: 131 points

Sat Apr 1 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Connecticut combine for fewer than 150 points in the Final Four matchup.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under according to our models.
  • Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 140-106-7 (56.9%) this season.
  • Most of the model factors are related to shooting regression (Connecticut is at 41% from three in last three tournament games for example) and also rebounding impact, as Miami has had a lot of offensive rebounds in recent games, but Connecticut is good on the glass.

Pick published: Mar 27 2:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 704

NCAAB Spread

Connecticut -5.5 -110

Won: 72-59

Miami vs. Connecticut

Sat Apr 1 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 5 points in the Final Four.

Staff notes:

  • This is a plck based on our lineup analysis and team trends.
  • Connecticut is even better than their already impressive average power rating in games with lineup usage most similar to how they have distributed minutes in the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the most similar games, which feature a heavy dosage of Andre Jackson compared to times earlier in the season when he was hurt, Connecticut's rating is a dominating +26.1. 
  • Connecticut is already 3rd in our overall power ratings, before even accounting for lineup shifts and improvements, and are up to 1st overall in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. So this is a dominant title contender who happened to be a No. 4 seed, and is playing at an elite level.
  • Miami has also played better with their current lineup, but is well below UConn, and the biggest difference is on the defensive end. Connecticut ranks near the top in both offense and defense, while Miami has an elite offense, but is outside the top 100 in a lot of defensive metrics.

Pick published: Mar 27 2:36pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 704

MLB Moneyline

Mariners To Win -164

Lost: 4-9

Guardians at Mariners

Fri Mar 31 • 10:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Seattle Mariners win against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Mar 31 5:32pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 910

MLB Run Line

Mets -1.5 +150

Lost: 1-2

Mets at Marlins

Fri Mar 31 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Mets win beat the Miami Marlins by at least 2 runs on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Decision Tree Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Decision Tree Model run line picks have been among our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Mar 31 5:32pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 901

MLB Moneyline

Rangers To Win -130

Won: 11-7

Phillies at Rangers

Thu Mar 30 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Texas Rangers win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Mar 29 6:53pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 988

MLB Moneyline

Cubs To Win +126

Won: 4-0

Brewers at Cubs

Thu Mar 30 • 2:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Chicago Cubs beat the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Similar Games Model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Mar 29 6:44pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 964

MLB Moneyline

Giants To Win +160

Lost: 0-5

Giants at Yankees

Thu Mar 30 • 1:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The San Francisco Giants beat the New York Yankees on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick according to our Similar Games model.
  • Over the last three years, our top Similar Games Model picks have been our most profitable model plays, returning solid ROIs in each season, and we will be highlighting those in Staff Picks.

Pick published: Mar 29 6:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 985

NCAAB Spread

UAB -1.5 -110

Won: 88-86

Utah Valley vs. UAB

Tue Mar 28 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the NIT semifinal on Tuesday by more than a point.

Staff notes:

  • This a play based on our WOWY analysis and team trends.
  • We'll largely copy our comment on UAB here from before our pick on them to win at Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal.
  • UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +13.5 in 20 games both before the first injury and after he fully returned, nearly three points better than full season ratings.
  • UAB has also averaged a rating of over +14.0 points over the last nine games with mostly the same rotation, with the only poor performance coming against Florida Atlantic.

Pick published: Mar 24 12:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 664

NCAAB Custom Bet

Over 11.5 Combined Seeds of Final Four Teams -145

Won: 23, combined seed number

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: The combined seeds of the four teams to reach the Final Four adds up to more than 11.5.

Staff notes:

  • Using our Round Advancement Odds projections in our Bracket Picks we show a 73% chance this prop hits Over in 2023.
  • This is a relatively wide open year where the top seeds have a lower chance to reach the Final Four than in recent past seasons.
  • Numerous teams in the No. 4 to No. 9 range have a realistic chance to make a Final Four run.
  • This prop will hit if any team reaches the Final Four seeded No. 9 or worse, or if a No. 8 reaches, as long as the other three are not all No. 1 seeds, and then numerous other combinations from there.
  • Since the NCAA Tournament went to the play-in games in 2011, this prop would have hit 8 of 11 times, including last year when North Carolina reached the Final Four.
  • It's also a fun multi-level prop that has you rooting for top seeds to lose and for Cinderella runs in the tournament.

Pick published: Mar 16 1:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Spread

Miami +4.0 -110

Won: 88-81

Miami vs. Texas

Sun Mar 26 • 5:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the Elite Eight on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and lineup analysis.
  • Miami has been signficantly better with the rotation they have used in the NCAA Tournament, with much heavier minutes for the guards and starters all healthy, and in the most similar 25% of games they are nearly five points better than their season power rating average.
  • Texas could be without Dylan Disu, who was in a walking boot on the bench in the Sweet 16 matchup after a foot injury.

Pick published: Mar 26 10:28am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 655

NCAAB Team Future

Connecticut To Make Final Four +300

Won: 82-54 over Gonzaga

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Connecticut Reaches the Final Four in the 2023 Men's Basketball Tournament.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Dec 27 4:29pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Spread

Connecticut -2.0 -110

Won: 82-54

Connecticut vs. Gonzaga

Sat Mar 25 • 8:49pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday in the West Region Final.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and team trend analysis.
  • Connecticut's performance has been dominant in the tournament, but with the current rotation, they have been playing at an elite level. We will just duplicate our comments from the pick in the Sweet 16 game.
  • Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher (now closer to 4 points higher after the Arkansas blowout) when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
  • We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current game moneyline is about -135, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Pick published: Mar 24 12:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 653

NCAAB Spread

Princeton +10.0 -110

Lost: 75-86

Princeton vs. Creighton

Fri Mar 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Princeton wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Friday in the Sweet 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, and a pick based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
  • Princeton is coming off two straight impressive performances against Arizona and Missouri, where they beat Arizona despite going only 4-of-25 from three, by playing Arizona even on the glass, then dominated Missouri in rebounding while avoiding turnovers.
  • Princeton has shortened their rotation substantially in recent games against tougher competition, and is better when their best players play more.
  • In the 10 most similar games this year to the minutes distribution from the Missouri 2nd Round game, Princeton has an average rating of +8.4 (compared to +4.6 across all games), and we think there's value on this Princeton team and a starting group that is better than the overall season numbers.

Pick published: Mar 22 10:03am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 649

NCAAB Moneyline

Florida Atlantic To Win +200

Won: 62-55

Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee

Thu Mar 23 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic wins the Sweet 16 game with Tennessee on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY analysis, tournament power ratings and projections, and matchup factors.
  • We have Florida Atlantic projected with a 40.2% chance of winning the matchup with Tennessee.
  • Tennessee has performed worse against top offensive efficiency teams, going 10-8 SU and 5-13 ATS against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom's efficiency ratings, but 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS against all other opponents. Florida Atlantic is 30th in offensive efficiency.
  • Tennessee has also performed relatively worse against top defensive rebounding teams, going 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (the one cover being against Duke). Florida Atlantic is 43rd in that category, the best defensive rebound ranking of any team Tennessee has faced (just ahead of Colorado and Kentucky, teams they went 0-3 SU against as favorites.)
  • The most similar offensive team to FAU is Missouri, in terms of overall offensive efficiency, pace, turnover rate, and volume of three point attempts, and Missouri scored 79 and 86 points in two wins against Tennessee as an outright dog.

Pick published: Mar 20 6:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 635

NCAAB Team Future

Tennessee To Reach Final Four +900

Lost: to Florida Atlantic

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Tennessee reaches the Final Four in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our predictive power ratings have Tennessee as the No. 4 team in the nation entering the season.
  • Our NCAA Tournament projections show an 18% chance for Tennessee to reach the Final Four, while the break-even rate at these odds is only 10%.
  • Tennessee finished as a No. 3 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament, and was No. 8 in our final predictive ratings last year.
  • The Volunteers return a lot of production complemented by a solid freshman class and should have a deep and talented squad.
  • They were also one of the best defensive teams in the nation a year ago, and guard Zakai Zeigler, now a sophomore, is one of the best at getting steals in the nation.
  • These current Final Four odds have them behind 12 other teams.
  • We project Tennessee with a 23% chance of getting a No. 1 seed, and a 62% cumulative chance of entering the NCAA Tournament as between a No. 1 and No. 4 seed.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Moneyline

Connecticut To Win -192

Won: 88-65

Arkansas vs. Connecticut

Thu Mar 23 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut wins the Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread (-4.5) and moneyline pick for Thursday in the Sweet 16.
  • Some model factors include Arkansas' high percentage of points from two-point shots and low three-point rate, against a team that rates highly in field goal percentage defense and blocks, Connecticut's opponents hitting a higher rate (37%) of threes in recent games, and Connecticut's high offensive efficiency in the last seven games.
  • We also like this play based on lineup analysis, as Connecticut's average game rating is about 3 points higher when using a rotation more similar to what they have used in the two tournament games so far, with heavy minutes for Andre Jackson, and more minutes for Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and fewer for Hassan Diarra.
  • We do have a futures pick on Connecticut from December to make Final Four (+300) and current price is about +185, but we also like this play independent from having that future in play based on matchup.

Pick published: Mar 23 10:30am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 640

NCAAB Spread

UAB (Pick) -110

Won: 67-59

UAB at Vanderbilt

Wed Mar 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the NIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
  • UAB has played much better if we exclude a mid-season stretch when Jordan "Jelly" Walker was playing through an ankle injury and also missed games, and has an average rating of +12.7 in 25 games both before and after that stretch.
  • Vanderbilt has been without center Liam Robbins for the last six games, and Myles Stute announced he was entering the transfer portal at the end of the SEC Tournament, and is not playing in the NIT.
  • Vanderbilt has won two home games in the NIT, including a one-point win over Michigan, but they were outrebounded 39-23, and trailed by 8 in the final minute, against a Michigan team also down two starters in the game.
  • UAB is the 8th-best team in the country at offensive rebound rate, and should have an advantage on the glass against an undersized Vanderbilt team.
     

Pick published: Mar 22 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 625

NCAAB Moneyline

Charlotte To Win -210

Won: 71-68

Charlotte vs. Eastern Kentucky

Wed Mar 22 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charlotte wins the game in the CBI Final on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick (as well as spread pick) for Wednesday in the CBI Final.
  • Eastern Kentucky has reached the final by winning three straight overtime games, including a 2OT game last night over Southern Utah.
  • Model factors that favor Charlotte include their high offensive efficiency for the season, their advantage on the defensive boards, and Charlotte's low opponent assist-to-turnover ratio.
  • Eastern Kentucky has also hit 40% of threes over the three OT wins, a regression candidate (32% for full season).

Pick published: Mar 22 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 630

NCAAB Over/Under

Radford vs. Charlotte Under 123.5 -108

Won: 119 points

Tue Mar 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Radford and Charlotte score fewer than 124 points on Tuesday in the CBI semifinal.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under pick in the CBI semifinal between Radford and Charlotte.
  • So far this year, playable Unders rated over 56% by the Decision Tree model are 139-106-7 (56.7%) and non-conference top playable Unders are 67-46-5 (59.3%). 
  • These are two of the slowest paced teams in basketball, with Charlotte the second-slowest, and will need high efficiency on offense to go over at the projected pace.
  • Radford has hit 48% of threes in the last three games, and opponents have hit 40%, a clear regression candidate.
  • Other model impacts include Radford's low opponent rebounds, and Charlotte's low rebound totals in recent games; both teams' low FTA rate for the season; and Charlotte opponents' low assists totals and assists-to-turnover rates in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 21 2:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 620

NCAAB Spread

North Texas +3.5 -105

Won: 65-59

North Texas at Oklahoma St.

Tue Mar 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Texas wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Tuesday in the NIT.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick in the NIT quarterfinal between North Texas and Oklahoma State.
  • It's also a playable lean based on our WOWY analysis has Oklahoma State with an average power rating of +9.3 in the 13 games without guard Avery Anderson, while North Texas is at +10.5, excluding the first four games of the year, when Tylor Perry missed two games and they played two non-D1 schools. The game is at OSU but even with HCA added in there is value on the dog.

Pick published: Mar 21 2:16pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 613

NCAAB Over/Under

Miami vs. Indiana Under 145.5 -110

Lost: 154 points

Sun Mar 19 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Indiana combine for fewer than 146 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
  • Model factors include Indiana's high percentage of scoring coming from twos, and low rate of shooting three-pointers in recent games, Indiana's high block rate on defense, and the high free throw percentages that both team's recent opponents have hit.

Pick published: Mar 19 6:58am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 840

NCAAB Team Future

Xavier To Make Sweet 16 -105

Won: over Pittsburgh

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Xavier reaches the Sweet 16 in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available under Sweet 16 and then under Xavier.
  • Our projected Round Odds from our adjusted ratings for our Bracket Picks have Xavier with a 55.9% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.
  • The break-even on this is 51.2%, so we are getting solid value on this prop.

Pick published: Mar 16 3:46am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Over/Under

Saint Mary's vs. Connecticut Under 128.0 -110

Won: 125 points

Sun Mar 19 • 6:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saint Mary's and Connecticut combine for fewer than 128 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • For the year, Unders rated above 56% are 139-105-6 (57%).
  • Model factors include Connecticut's high offensive rebound percentage (1st in nation) vs. St. Mary's high defensive rebound percentage (2nd in nation), Connecticut's very high offensive efficiency in the last three games, and St. Mary's low opponent three-point attempt rate in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 19 7:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

NCAAB Spread

Eastern Washington +11.5 -110

Won: 60-71

Eastern Washington at Oklahoma St.

Sun Mar 19 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for the NIT matchup on Sunday.
  • It is also a play based on our WOWY lineup analysis.
  • Oklahoma State's rating is lower on average since Avery Anderson's season-ending injury, +9.2 on average.
  • Eastern Washington has four games without starting point guard Tyreese Davis (or where he left in the first five minutes) earlier this year that are pulling down their season average, but their average rating is +3.2 with him playing the full game.

Pick published: Mar 19 7:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 855

NCAAB Team Future

Duke To Reach Sweet 16 +170

Lost: Lost to Tennessee

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Duke reaches the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our adjustments for Duke's recent form as well as No. 4 seed Tennessee being impacted by injury to point guard Zakai Ziegler, we are projecting Duke with a 49% chance of making the Sweet 16, showing value on this prop.

Pick published: Mar 13 10:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Spread

Northwestern +7.5 -105

Won: 63-68

Northwestern vs. UCLA

Sat Mar 18 • 8:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • Northwestern has been a solid underdog play all season, as they are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS when getting points. 
  • Some model factors include UCLA's low number of 3 point attempts and points from 3 this season, Northwestern opponent's low number of points from 3 in recent games, and Northwestern's high steals per play. 

Pick published: Mar 18 10:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 815

NCAAB Spread

Auburn +5.5 -110

Lost: 64-81

Auburn vs. Houston

Sat Mar 18 • 7:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • Houston coach Kelvin Sampson also disclosed that not only was Marcus Sasser battling the injury (and re-injured it) but that point guard Jamal Shead was playing through a sore knee.
  • Matchup factors also favor Auburn, as Houston has struggled relatively against teams with Auburn's strengths.
  • Houston is 4-11 ATS against top 100 Offensive Rebouding Teams (14-6 against others) and Auburn is 51st in that category.
  • Houston is 0-8 ATS against top 50 eFG% Defense Teams, and Auburn is 12th in that category.

Pick published: Mar 17 1:58pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 807

NCAAB Over/Under

Furman vs. San Diego St. Over 137.5 -105

Lost: 127 points

Sat Mar 18 • 12:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and San Diego State combined for more than 137 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Totals plays involving non-conference teams are 122-85-5 (58.9%) for the season. 
  • Some model factors in this game include San Diego State's low opponent efficiency and low three-point make rate for the season, combined with Furman's low rate of turnovers. 
  • Furman is one of the nation's leaders in two-point shooting percentage and rates well in turnovers, while San Diego State's defense doesn't rate nearly as highly in opponent two-point rate (161st) compared to three-point rate (6th). 

Pick published: Mar 18 11:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 801

NCAAB Spread

Kent St. +4.5 -110

Lost: 60-71

Kent St. vs. Indiana

Fri Mar 17 • 9:55pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kent State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a spread pick based on our WOWY and matchup analysis.
  • As we noted in our team notes in our bracket picks product, Indiana's power rating has been worse on average since they lost Xavier Johnson in December, and they do not rate highly in our power ratings (and are over-seeded) even before accounting for that adjustment.
  • Indiana was 1-5 ATS against teams who are in the top 100 in defensive turnover rate. So while their overall turnover rate numbers aren't bad, they haven't played too many high-turnover defenses, and have struggled when they do. Kent State is 20th in turnover rate on defense, the best in that category that Indiana has faced all year.
  • Kent State has played better against top teams, losing narrowly to Houston and Gonzaga. They have done well (9-3-1 ATS against top 100 teams in offensive turnover rate) against teams not accustomed to committing turnovers.

Pick published: Mar 17 1:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 771

NCAAB Spread

Drake +2.5 -110

Lost: 56-63

Drake vs. Miami

Fri Mar 17 • 7:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Drake wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in the First Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean on Drake according to our Ensemble Forecast.
  • We also like this play based on our WOWY analysis, in regard to Drake's performance with the current lineup and recent dominant form, as well as potential injury impact concern for Miami.
  • Miami's Norchad Omier injured his ankle early in the loss to Duke, and his status for the opening game is unknown. Miami is a heavily guard-oriented team with defensive deficiencies, and Omier, at 6'7", is their biggest starter and him being limited or out would impact them.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:58pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 769

NCAAB Spread

Pittsburgh +4.0 -110

Won: 59-41

Pittsburgh vs. Iowa St.

Fri Mar 17 • 3:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pitt wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on our WOWY adjusted team ratings and team trends.
  • We show about one point of edge on this line based on adjusted ratings entering Thursday, with Iowa State being an overvalued No. 6 seed, and only valued at our No. 38 team in the tournament in our adjusted ratings entering the game.
  • Pitt also gets an extra day's rest from playing in the First Four game in Dayton (because the committee scheduled all the No. 6 seeds at Friday sites), and that could be big as starting center Fed Federiko missed Tuesday's game and was a game-time decision, but now gets extra recovery time and is more likely to play with the game on Friday.

Pick published: Mar 16 9:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 785

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -2.5 -110

Lost: 59-76

Penn St. vs. Texas A&M

Thu Mar 16 • 9:55pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins by more than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Both teams have played well lately, but one model factor impacting this is Penn State's opponents scoring very few points from beyond the arc recently, as their opponents have made only 25% from three-point range in the last six games.
  • Other model factors including Penn State scoring a low percentage of their points from two both all season and recently, Texas A&M's ability to draw fouls for the season and in recent games, and Texas A&M's low number of defensive rebounds recently compared to Penn State's low offensive rebound stats.

Pick published: Mar 16 2:34am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 754

NCAAB Spread

Northwestern -1.5 -110

Won: 75-67

Boise St. vs. Northwestern

Thu Mar 16 • 7:35pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern wins the game by more than a point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis.
  • Based on the full season ratings, Boise State would be a one-point favorite, and that's where it opened before moving to Northwestern as the slight favorite.
  • Boise State has played relatively worse down the stretch, and their best guard Marcus Shaver has been playing through an ankle injury over the last two months. They have been below their full season power rating in 8 of the last 10.
  • Northwestern is very good at avoiding turnovers and creating turnovers on defense, and teams with that profile have fared well in their first tournament game. Since 2011, teams in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate on both sides of the ball are 13-6 SU and ATS in the First Round.

Pick published: Mar 16 2:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 766

NCAAB Spread

Howard +21.5 -102

Lost: 68-96

Howard vs. Kansas

Thu Mar 16 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game or loses by fewer than 22 points in First Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean for our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • It's also a recommended play based on our WOWY analysis, for a lot of the same reasons we successfully played Howard as a conference title future last week.
  • Howard used a lot of different player combos early, but they have played substantially better with the current lineup, since guard Marcus Dockery (46% from three) and freshman Shy Odom (best rim attacker on the team) became starters.
  • This line is directly on where we would predict it to be based on full season ratings, but we have strong reason to believe Howard's play and ratings changes over last half of season are real and based on different player combos and a more efficient offensive rotation being used.

Pick published: Mar 13 12:10am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 757

NCAAB Spread

Maryland +3.0 -110

Won: 67-65

West Virginia vs. Maryland

Thu Mar 16 • 12:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maryland wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean against the spread, and a playable model moneyline play on Maryland according to our models, if you would rather play the moneyline on this one.
  • We are listing the spread pick as our official play since the extra half-point is available at DraftKings to get the full three points, and cover getting at least a push in all one-score game scenarios.
  • Our WOWY analysis has these two teams dead even, so we also see some value on getting points in this fairly even matchup.
  • One model factor here is actually Maryland's relatively high home power rating this year, as the market can sometimes overvalue the home/road splits in college basketball in a small sample size. Maryland is 13-4 ATS and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral, though they have done fine in neutral games.
  • Other model factors include Maryland's low number of FGA allowed this year, their recent low 3 Point Attempts allowed, and Maryland's low number of turnovers in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 16 10:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 748

NCAAB Over/Under

Villanova at Liberty Under 137.0 -110

Won: 119 points

Tue Mar 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova and Liberty combine for fewer than 137 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick in this NIT game at Liberty.
  • So far this year, playable Unders rated at 56% or higher by the Decision Tree Model are 134-105-6 (56.1%) and non-conference playable Unders rated there are 62-44-3 (58.5%).
  • Some model factors include Liberty's low opponent made FGs per game this season, and both teams' high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 13 10:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 678

NCAAB Spread

Mississippi St. -1.5 -110

Lost: 59-60

Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi St.

Tue Mar 14 • 9:10pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins by more than a point in the First Four game.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • We also see some value based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and tourney team similarities.
  • From our team notes with our bracket picks product: "Mississippi State is dead last in all of D1 at three-point shooting, at 26.6%, and is in the tournament because of their defense. Counterintuitively, teams with Mississippi State's profile have tended to overperform slightly in the tournament. That's probably because their defense remains consistent, while positive shooting variance benefits more than negative shooting variance harms them, since they weren't really expecting to shoot well anyway."
  • Add in that Mississippi State has tended to struggle more against top defenses, and Pitt being ranked way down at 142nd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and we see value here.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:43pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 701

NCAAB Spread

SE Missouri St. +4.0 -110

Push: 71-75

SE Missouri St. vs. Texas A&M-CC

Tue Mar 14 • 6:40pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Missouri State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in the First Four game.

Staff notes:

  • This is based on our WOWY analysis of team trends.
  • This spread is directly on the full season power ratings of the two teams, but we have a positive adjustment on SE Missouri, and a negative adjustment for a potential injury factor for Texas A&M-CC.
  • Texas A&M-CC point guard Terrion Murdix went down with a leg injury early in the title game for the Southland Conference. They were able to rally and win, but if he is out, that impacts them for this game. Since we see value already, we are grabbing this early line on the potential he is also out or limited.

Pick published: Mar 12 11:40pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 670

NCAAB Team Future

Clemson To Miss NCAA Tournament +128

Won: missed tournament

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Clemson does not make the 2023 NCAA Tournament Field.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's Tournament."
  • Clemson is currently tied atop the ACC at 10-3 in conference play, but we project them as having a greater than 50% chance of missing the tournament by Selection Sunday.
  • Clemson is currently slotted as an 11-seed and one of the last at-large teams in on the Bracket Matrix. 
  • They are currently projected out of the field in both our automated Bracketology, with a 26% chance of making it, and are also projected out in Jason Lisk's bracket (which will be released publicly next week) as the 5th team out.
  • Clemson is only 64th in our predictive ratings, and 65th in the NET, and have played the worst strength of schedule of any team under realistic at-large consideration.
  • They have also had three bad losses to South Carolina, Loyola-Chicago, and Boston College.
  • Clemson is 2-2 against teams we currently project in the field, with "best" wins of home against Duke and at Pittsburgh. They play all three remaining games against projected tournament teams on the road.
  • With their lower power rating, lack of top end wins, and poor strength of schedule, along with some bad losses, they project as the type of team that gets left out on Selection Sunday. 

Pick published: Feb 8 6:12pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

Wisconsin to Make NCAA Tournament +134

Lost: missed tournament

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Wisconsin is selected into the field for the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This prop is available at FanDuel under "March Madness" and "To Make Men's NCAA Tournament."
  • Our automated projections have Wisconsin currently as one of the final teams in the field as an at-large after Tuesday's win over Michigan, with a 53% chance of getting into the field.
  • Wisconsin was the 2nd team out at the start of the week in our most recent bracket predictions article, but would be also projected in the field there as well after winning, and losses by three of the teams right in front of them in the same tier (North Carolina, Mississippi State, New Mexico).
  • The Badgers also went through a seven-game stretch in January where starters Tyler Wahl and Max Klesmit were hurt and missed time, and were about six points worse on average in those games, so the current lineup is a little better than the average power rating. 
  • Wisconsin is currently 15-10 and projected to finish 17-13 in the regular season, and their resume if they hit that mark puts them right on the bubble. 
  • Given that they are coming at + odds right now, we see value on Wisconsin as just being in the field if they hit their average projection, as they have faced a top 20 schedule and we project them to have five Quadrant 1 wins and 10 Quad 1+2 wins, which will compare favorably to other teams right on the bubble. 

Pick published: Feb 16 6:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

Duke To Win ACC Tournament +500

Won: final over Virginia

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Duke wins the ACC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • This futures pick is made prior to the Duke-UNC game and official seeding for the ACC Tournament, so odds could shift.
  • Our current automated projections have Duke at 19.7% to win the ACC Tournament across all scenarios.
  • Duke is going to be either the No.4 or No. 5 seed depending on Saturday's results.
  • Duke is also a bit undervalued based on earlier injuries and the team playing better down the stretch with the current healthy lineup.
  • The projection if Duke is a No. 5 seed (with Miami as the No. 1 seed) is a 22.7% chance to win the tournament, and it goes up from there in scenarios where Duke finishes as the No. 4 seed, or Pittsburgh upsets Miami to get the No. 1 seed. So we see value regardless of how the scenarios play out, in some cases, even more value.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

UAB To Win Conference USA Tournament +210

Lost: final to Fla Atlantic

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UAB wins the Conference USA Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projection for UAB is 29.7% to win Conference USA.
  • However, after making some WOWY (With or Without You) adjustments for the stretch when UAB's star point guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker was nursing an ankle injury and then missed games earlier this year, they moved up. 
  • With those adjustments, UAB is up to 35.3% and showing value at the current +210, as they rate similarly to conference favorite Florida Atlantic once you account for the injury impact from earlier in the year.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Team Future

Howard To Win MEAC Tournament +300

Won: final over Norfolk State

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the MEAC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Based on overall season power ratings, Howard is below both Norfolk State and NC Central, and behind both in both market and our automated projection odds.
  • However, there's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
  • Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6).
  • Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 12-3, and are 4 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
  • Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.
  • Howard also has the much better draw, as Norfolk State and NC-Central are on the opposite side of the bracket, and if they are closer in quality to the team that has played since early January, are closer to 30% to win the tournament.

Pick published: Mar 7 5:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Team Future

Texas Christian To Win Big 12 Tournament +700

Lost: to Texas in semis

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the Big 12 Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections give TCU only a 10% chance of winning the conference tourney, but they have had numerous past injury impacts that make them a better candidate and undervalued by just looking at overall power ratings. 
  • TCU's Mike Miles missed eight games with multiple injuries, including a knee injury in late January, and Damion Baugh started the year on suspension.
  • In 19 games with Miles, Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller all starting and playing regular minutes, TCU's average rating is +19.8, compared to only +7.0 in other games where at least one of them was out.
  • TCU beat their first opponent, Kansas State, by 23 at full strength, then lost to them by 21 in a game that Miles missed, and center Eddie Lampkin tried to come back and play through injury, and scored zero points and then sat out again the next game.
  • After adjustments, we make TCU's chances 16.2% to win the Big 12 tourney.
  • This is also an off-market line at BetMGM, as TCU is +550 at DK and +600 at FanDuel, so we are grabbing the extra value here on a longer shot play, but a team that can go on a run at its peak.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Team Future

Kentucky To Win SEC Tournament +430

Lost: to Vandy in Qtrs

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the SEC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections give Kentucky a 12.9% chance of winning the SEC Tournament, however, there are several factors that increase Kentucky's chances. 
  • Kentucky had frequent lineup switches in the first half of the season, and largely had undersized Sahvir Wheeler at point guard. Since moving to a bigger lineup (and more consistent lineup) the Wildcats have been much better since early January. Their power rating over the last 15 games is more than 2.5 points better than the season average rating.
  • Two other top contenders in the SEC have major question marks entering this tournament that increase the variance. Alabama has played four straight subpar games since the news broke about Brandon Miller, and will likely have a No. 1 seed locked up entering the tournament, which could impact motivation. Tennessee just lost their starting point guard.
  • And finally, Kentucky has by far the best "quadrant" draw, having to get through either Vanderbilt, who just lost starting center Liam Robbins for the year, or the winner of LSU/Georgia, two of the lowest rated teams in the conference. Texas A&M, meanwhile, gets the winner of an Auburn/Arkansas showdown.

Pick published: Mar 7 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Over/Under

Massachusetts Lowell at Vermont Under 141.5 -110

Won: 131 points

Sat Mar 11 • 11:00am ET

More info

How it wins: UMass-Lowell and Vermont combine for fewer than 142 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (129-104-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include UMass-Lowell's good rebounding numbers and low fouls in recent games, and Vermont's extremely high offensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 11 9:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306512

NCAAB Spread

Southern Utah +3.5 -102

Won: 89-88

Southern Utah vs. Utah Valley

Fri Mar 10 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Utah wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • Southern Utah is both a top-rated playable spread and moneyline pick for Friday night, and we endorse either of them as an option, depending on your preference.
  • Some of the model factors include Southern Utah's rate of drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line recently, their shooting efficiency in recent games, and the low number of threes this year.
  • Utah Valley also has had extreme opponent three-point percentage (31%) compared to Southern Utah opponent's three-percentage (35%).

Pick published: Mar 10 4:25pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 867

NCAAB Spread

Jackson St. +5.5 -110

Lost: 69-78

Jackson St. vs. Grambling St.

Fri Mar 10 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jackson State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Friday in CBB.
  • Jackson State has also been playing better with the current lineup, particularly since Trace Young was lost for the season, and Chase Adams moved back in to the starting lineup.
  • Jackson State's defensive numbers have been really good over the last five, and they've held three of the last four to under 44% from two-point range.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306503

NCAAB Spread

Oregon +5.5 -110

Lost: 56-75

Oregon vs. UCLA

Fri Mar 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model spread pick for Friday.
  • In addition, UCLA is playing without Jaylen Clark, their best defender, who is now out for the season, and missed the quarterfinal in a game that was closer than the final score, as it was tight until the final minutes.
  • Oregon is better than their full-season rating, as Jermaine Cousinard missed the first half of the season, and since he moved into the starting lineup they have a +14.0 power rating, compared to +11.4 overall.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 857

NCAAB Spread

Howard -3.5 -105

Won: 74-55

Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. Howard

Fri Mar 10 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game by more than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and analysis. We also had a futures pick on Howard to win MEAC pre-tournament, and we will re-iterate a lot of the same points that we said before they went out and won their first game by 36 as an 8-point fave.
  • There's a decent reason to think that Howard, who surged to finish 1st in the MEAC regular season by winning 10 of 12, is undervalued based on their current lineup.
  • Howard destroyed Norfolk State by 20 in the season finale to claim the top seed, but the starting lineup used in that game has only been used 10 times, due to injuries and lineup shifts. But in an admittedly smaller sample size, have averaged a power rating of +3.0 (their season rating is -4.6). [It's now up to +4.5 with the current lineup after the quarterfinal.]
  • Since Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery was put in the starting lineup on January 7th, Howard has gone 13-3, and are 5 points better than the season average. Dockery has shot 46% from three and is one of the national leaders, and he has made over half of his deep shots since becoming the starting shooting guard.
  • Two of the three losses since Dockery became starter were when starting center Steve Settle was out injured, but he returned for the Norfolk State win.

Pick published: Mar 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306506

NCAAB Over/Under

Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. Under 137.5 -110

Won: 126 points

Fri Mar 10 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio State and Michigan State combine for fewer than 138 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (124-102-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Michigan State's extremely high effective field goal percentage in the last three games, Ohio State's rebounding, and Michigan State's two-point percentage defense in recent games.
  • Ohio State has also played better defense in the last three weeks, turning around a run of poor performances. The one high-scoring game was against the Spartans, in a game where both teams combined to hit 23 three-pointers on over 50% shooting from deep.

Pick published: Mar 10 9:58am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 812

NCAAB Over/Under

Rutgers vs. Purdue Under 127.5 -105

Lost: 135 points

Fri Mar 10 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rutgers and Purdue combine for fewer than 128 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and matchup.
  • Purdue's over/under splits are strongly correlated with how aggressive the opponent defense is at forcing turnovers, when going against their young backcourt. When Purdue plays a top 200 opponent in defensive turnover rate, they are 4 Overs and 11 Unders, versus 9-7 Overs on all other games. 
  • Purdue has gone Under in all three games against a team in the top 50 in turnovers, including the loss to Rutgers in the regular season, and the loss to Northwestern.
  • Rutgers has gone under in seven of the last nine games as their offense has struggled without Mawat Mag.

Pick published: Mar 10 9:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 810

NCAAB Spread

San Jose St. +5.5 -115

Won: 81-77

San Jose St. vs. Nevada

Thu Mar 9 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
  • Nevada has had two straight "bad" losses that have them on the edge of the bubble entering this game, and they have had 4 poor offensive games in the last 5, where they have struggled at two-point shooting and not getting offensive boards, while opponents have had more success on the boards. 
  • San Jose State has been playing better down the stretch, and has been particularly good at getting offensive boards, which is a strong matchup factor in their favor here in the underdog role.

Pick published: Mar 9 11:10am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 775

NCAAB Spread

Duke -6.0 -110

Won: 96-69

Pittsburgh vs. Duke

Thu Mar 9 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duke wins the game by more than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick on both lineup WOWY (With or Without You) factors and trends.
  • We also had Duke as a future to win the ACC tourney from last week (prior to the UNC win) but they have moved from that +500 original price down to the favorite at +300 at DraftKings, and a lot of the same rationale applies.
  • Duke is a better team now, than the full season rating represents. They had a rough stretch of nine games from early December to late January when guard Jeremy Roach was injured and freshman center Dereck Lively was injured and playing limited minutes. They've been more than 2 points better than their season average if you exclude those games.
  • Duke's 8-point home win over Pitt in the regular season came during that stretch, in a game Roach missed and Lively played 12 minutes.
  • Over the last 5 seasons, favorites coming off a bye in a conference tourney at a neutral site, and playing a team that had to play the day before like No. 5 seed Pitt did, are 164-144-9 (53.2%).

Pick published: Mar 9 10:49am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 722

NCAAB Spread

Michigan -3.0 -105

Lost: 50-62

Rutgers vs. Michigan

Thu Mar 9 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan wins the game by more than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on WOWY analysis and team trends.
  • Rutgers has struggled over its last eight games, since Mawot Mag suffered a season ending injury. They have gone 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS, and their average power rating over that span is +4.5, compared to +16.9 in their first 23 games.
  • Michigan has been better over its last 10 games, by about 6.5 points compared to its season average.

Pick published: Mar 9 10:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 736

NCAAB Spread

West Virginia -3.5 -110

Won: 78-62

Texas Tech vs. West Virginia

Wed Mar 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Wednesday in CBB, and one where we also see value based on recent news and team trends.
  • Texas Tech just suspended head coach Mark Adams on Sunday for statements he made to a player, and will likely be terminated after the season. Tech is not going to the NCAA Tournament at 16-15, unless they go on a 4-game run in the Big 12 tourney.
  • West Virginia has surged in the last two weeks, winning three games and losing only to Kansas on the road by two points, to lock in their place in the tourney.

Pick published: Mar 7 9:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 698

NCAAB Spread

Georgia Tech +7.0 -110

Lost: 81-89

Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

Wed Mar 8 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on our lineup WOWY (With or Without You) analysis.
  • This spread is close to the full season spread between the two using average power ratings, but after adjustments we see about two points of value on Georgia Tech.
  • Georgia Tech had a rough January stretch, and it included nine straight conference losses. But shooting guard Lance Terry was hurt and then missed five games, including the Louisville loss.
  • Since Terry has returned and since the team has gotten healthier, the Yellow Jackets have gone 7-3 SU, and are 8-1 ATS, with the only non-cover coming in the ACC tourney opener against FSU by a point.

Pick published: Mar 7 9:39pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 653

NCAAB Over/Under

Weber St. vs. Montana St. Under 129.5 -110

Won: 118 points

Tue Mar 7 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Weber State and Montana State combine for fewer than 130 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under for Tuesday in the Big Sky Tournament.
  • We also like this Under based on matchup factors and team trends, particularly involving Weber State.
  • Both of these teams rate highly in defensive rebounding, and poorly in offensive rebounding, which should limit second chance opportunities.
  • Weber State rates poorly in three-point percentage allowed, but their Over/Under performance has been tight to how well opponents shoot from outside. Montana State is 309th nationally and 9th (out of 10) in conference play at three-point shooting, and their offense is built around scoring inside.
  • Against teams who have averaged 33% or under from three-point range for the year, like Montana State, Weber State has gone Under 7 of 10 times, by an average of -10.6 points. All other Weber State games have gone Over 13 of 20 times.

Pick published: Mar 7 5:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 634

NCAAB Spread

Chattanooga +4.5 -110

Lost: 79-88

Chattanooga vs. Furman

Mon Mar 6 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chattanooga wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick, but is a pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and player news.
  • Chattanooga's star 7-foot center (and likely Conference Player of the Year before injury) Jake Stephens missed the last 11 games of the regular season with a hand injury, but has returned for the Southern Conference tournament.
  • Chattanooga has a +3.5 average power rating with Stephens and -4.9 without him, for a 8.5-point swing in average performance.
  • Since returning, Stephens has scored 67 points in three tournament wins.
  • Furman has won 5 of the last 6, but covered only 2 of them with some close wins in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 6 10:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 867

NCAAB Over/Under

Houston at Memphis Under 145.5 -110

Won: 132 points

Sun Mar 5 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston and Memphis combine for fewer than 146 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Houston's low field goals allowed for the season, high offensive rebound rate, Memphis' recent high opponent two-point rate allowed, and Memphis' low rate of taking three-point shots in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 770

NCAAB Over/Under

Liberty at Kennesaw St. Under 136.0 -110

Won: 133 points

Sun Mar 5 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Liberty and Kennesaw State combine for fewer than 136 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Liberty's low possessions per game, Liberty's high assist-to-turnover ratio and low turnovers in recent games, and Kennesaw State's low opponent three-point percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306534

NCAAB Over/Under

Temple at Tulane Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 165 points

Sun Mar 5 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Temple and Tulane combine for fewer than 151 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (117-94-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Tulane's high steals per game combined with Temple's high opponent steals per game, Tulane's low opponent two-point percentage in recent games, and Temple's high defensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 5 8:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 780

NCAAB Over/Under

Pittsburgh at Miami Under 154.5 -110

Won: 154 points

Sat Mar 4 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh and Miami combine for fewer than 155 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • his is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include PIttsburgh's high block rate on defense in recent games, and Miami's high number of points from inside the arc in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:34am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 674

NCAAB Team Future

UNC Asheville To Win Big South Tournament +270

Won: against Campbell in final

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UNC Asheville wins the Big South Conference Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have UNC-Asheville with a 26.9% chance of winning the tournament, putting these odds right at break-even.
  • However, there's also reason to think that UNCA is a value based on both their own performance and some potential injury factors for opponents.
  • UNCA's power rating would be about a point higher if you excluded a stretch in December when shooting guard Fletcher Abee (42% from three) missed games.
  • UNCA also struggled against the two best teams they faced (Arkansas, Dayton) with better athletes that can defend their shooters, but they excelled in conference play, shooting 41% from three in Big South play, and winning the conference by four games. They were 2 points better on average in games against Big South teams compared to their season power rating overall.
  • Further, Gardner-Webb point guard Julien Soumaoro missed the last game (and most of the game before that) with an undisclosed injury, and his status is up in the air. Gardner-Webb is the strongest opponent (and 5 seed) on UNCA's side of the bracket and if they are injury-impacted that improves Asheville's chances of reaching the final.

Pick published: Feb 27 4:42pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

Bradley To Win Missouri Valley Conference Tournament +200

Lost: to Drake in final

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins the MVC Tournament.

Staff notes:

  • Our automated projections have Bradley at 30.7% to win the tournament, behind Drake, but our adjustments push this to a value and Bradley to the most likely winner.
  • It's the same adjustment that led us to play Bradley as a futures value to win the regular season back in December, as star center Rienk Mast missed the first 6 games of the year. With him playing the Bradley power rating is +10.8 and without him it was 0.0. 
  • Based on our adjustments for games with Mast playing, Bradley is at 35.2% to win the MVC tournament, an edge over the 33.3% break-even.

Pick published: Feb 28 11:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

Virginia to Win ACC Regular Season Title +300

Lost: Miami won tiebreaker over UVA

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Virginia finishes as the No. 1 seed in the ACC at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections give Virginia a 47% chance of winning the ACC regular season title as of November 28, 2022.
  • Our predictive power ratings are even lower than several other power ratings systems, so this isn't a case of us being well above market on rating a team.
  • Just looking at the results so far to date, Virginia's power rating would put them as one of the top teams in Division 1, while Duke and North Carolina have both underperformed expectations. 
  • Virginia currently ranks in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on Ken Pomeroy, and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation.
  • In terms of conference tiebreakers, Virginia plays North Carolina twice and hosts Duke in the only regular season meeting between the schools.

Pick published: Nov 28 5:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Team Future

Utah St. To Win the Mountain West Regular Season Title +1900

Lost: San Diego St won

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Utah State finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Mountain West after 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections see value on Utah State in the Mountain West Conference, as we project them as the second-favorite in the conference, behind San Diego State, with a 21% chance of winning regular season title.
  • Utah State slumped to an 8-10 conference record last year, as they battled lots of injuries and also had a poor close game record, but the program has finished 2nd, 2nd, and tied for 1st the previous three seasons in conference play.
  • The FanDuel price is the best right now, but there are playable lines at DraftKings (+1100) and PointsBet (+1000) as well.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Over/Under

Wake Forest at Syracuse Under 157.5 -110

Won: 135 points

Sat Mar 4 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wake Forest and Syracuse combine for fewer than 158 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.1% of the time (114-93-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Syracuse's recent high opponent shooting percentages in the last three games, Wake Forest's interior shooting, and both team having low rebound totals in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 670

NCAAB Spread

East Tennessee St. -2.5 -102

Lost: 57-69

East Tennessee St. vs. Western Carolina

Sat Mar 4 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: East Tennessee State wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday in CBB.
  • Model factors include East Tennessee State's high percentage of points coming from two and Western Carolina's high percentage of points for opponents from two in recent games.
  • East Tennessee State has also been better since the start of December, after some early missed games for starters. 

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 731

NCAAB Spread

Auburn -2.0 -110

Won: 79-70

Tennessee at Auburn

Sat Mar 4 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on player news and team trends.
  • Tennessee point guard Zakai Zeigler tore his ACL in Tuesday's game and is lost for the season. He is one of the national leaders in both assists and steals and is a key driver of Tennessee's pressure defense.
  • Even with Ziegler, Tennessee was significantly better against poor offenses and struggled against better teams against the spread. Tennessee is only 4-10 ATS against top 100 offenses (Auburn is 76th) but 12-4 against all others ATS.
  •  

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 620

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -1.5 -110

Won: 67-61

Alabama at Texas A&M

Sat Mar 4 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable spread model picks for Saturday, and also a play based on team trends.
  • Texas A&M got off to a slow start with a lot of lineup shuffling, but over 21 games with the current lineup, has been more than 3 points better than the season average power rating.
  • Alabama has struggled compared to their previous performances levels over the last three games, since the news broke that star Brandon Miller had driven a gun to the scene of a murder, and the program has been under intense media scrutiny.

Pick published: Mar 4 9:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 604

NCAAB Spread

Nebraska Omaha -1.5 -105

Won: 73-61

Nebraska Omaha vs. Kansas City

Fri Mar 3 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Nebraska-Omaha wins the game by more than 1 point on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a model play, but is a play based on team trends and injury news.
  • UMKC's Shemarri Allen suffered a season-ending injury three games ago, and UMKC has failed to cover those games by a combined 52 points. 
  • UMKC has also struggled with Allen David Mukaba, the leading rebounder, missing time over the last month.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 885

NCAAB Spread

Morehead St. -3.5 -120

Lost: 58-65

SE Missouri St. vs. Morehead St.

Fri Mar 3 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game by more than 3 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends.
  • Morehead State has played better after a slow start when they utilized several different lineups. With the current lineup they are about 2 points better than the season average, and Morehead has won 11 of their last 12 games after a 10-9 start, with that current lineup.
  • SE Missouri's average performance has been about two points worse since mid-January, when wing Kobe Clark suffered an injury, and has missed the rest of the season.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 888

NCAAB Team Future

Toledo To Win MAC Regular Season Title +240

Won: Toledo Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Toledo gets the No. 1 seed in the MAC after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our college basketball season predictions have Toledo as a strong favorite in the MAC, at 49% to win the regular season title, providing a huge edge if you can get these odds or anything better than +150.
  • Toledo has won the MAC regular season title each of the last two seasons, before coming up short in the conference tournament both years. 

Pick published: Nov 6 7:40pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NCAAB Team Future

VCU To Win Atlantic-10 Regular Season Title +250

Won: VCU Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: VCU finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We are showing value on VCU to win the Atlantic-10, as they currently have a 38% chance according to our projections, while the break-even at the FanDuel line is 28.6% chance of winning the conference.
  • There's also reason to think that VCU is a bit undervalued by average power rating, as they had seven different games where they were missing a starter before Christmas, and performed worse. With the current healthy lineup they are 7-1 ATS and SU over the last eight games, and off to a 7-1 conference record.
  • That includes a win on the road at Dayton, the betting market favorite, and they have a game in hand on Dayton.
  • We had a preseason Staff Pick future on Dayton to win the conference at +200, and this is playable whether or not you also played that previous future. As a stand-alone it has solid value and it's also a good hedge at a positive payout if Dayton or VCU win, as we give one of those two a close to 70% chance of being the No. 1 seed.
  • VCU is in action tonight as a favorite against George Mason, so the odds will shift after tonight's game.

Pick published: Jan 25 2:50pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

UCLA To Win Pac-12 Regular Season Title +140

Won: UCLA Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: UCLA finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 at end of 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • We currently project the Pac-12 as a two-team race between UCLA and Arizona, with UCLA having a 62% chance to win the conference.
  • Our predictive power ratings have UCLA (No. 4 overall) slightly ahead of Arizona (No. 5) and UCLA has a game in hand based on Arizona's December loss to Utah.
  • You can get this anywhere from +100 to +140 at sportsbooks, and it has value as long as you are getting + odds on UCLA, based on their current lead in standings over Arizona.

Pick published: Dec 27 4:06pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAB Team Future

Dayton To Win the Atlantic-10 Conference Regular Season Title +200

Lost: VCU Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Dayton finishes as the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections show value on this bet, as we project Dayton as the clear favorite in the Atlantic 10, with a 47% chance of finishing as the conference's top seed.
  • Dayton finished one game back of Davidson for last year's conference title, and just missed out on a NCAA Tournament bid.
  • Dayton was the youngest team in Division 1 a year ago, as the top 7 players in minutes consisted of 6 freshmen and a sophomore, and all return this season.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

NCAAB Team Future

North Texas To Win Conference USA Regular Season Title +350

Lost: Florida Atlantic Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: North Texas gets the No. 1 seed in Conference USA at the end of 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • This number is off-market what is offered at some other books, and shows high value on North Texas, who we have as the most likely regular season champion, at 38%.
  • North Texas won the Conference USA regular season title last year, and the tournament title the year before, and projects as one of the best mid-majors this season.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:34pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NCAAB Team Future

Xavier To Win the Big East Regular Season Title +550

Lost: Marquette Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Xavier gets the No. 1 seed in the Big East at the end of the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • While Creighton is the betting market favorite in the Big East, we project Xavier as the highest value pick, with odds greater than Creighton to win the conference, at a 22.5% chance.
  • Xavier fired Travis Steele after four seasons with no winning records in conference play, and former Xavier and Arizona coach Sean Miller took over before the NIT.
  • The team surged to the NIT title, under Miller, after faltering down the stretch to just miss the NCAA Tournament.
  • Miller has already had success at the school and led frequent top seeds at both Xavier and Arizona, and with Jay Wright retiring at Villanova, becomes one of the most accomplished coaches in the conference.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Team Future

Seton Hall To Win Big East Regular Season Title +3000

Lost: Marquette Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Seton Hall gets the No. 1 seed in the Big East after the 2022-23 regular season.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 16 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Team Future

Tennessee To Win SEC Regular Season Title +220

Lost: Alabama Wins Conference

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Tennessee finishes as the No. 1 seed in the SEC at end of 2023 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection is that Tennessee has a 59% chance to win the SEC title.
  • Tennessee is No. 2 in our predictive power ratings, more than 4 points better than Arkansas, Alabama, and Kentucky as we enter conference play.
  • One of Tennessee's best players, Josiah-Jordan James, has been battling knee soreness and missed 7 games so far (and been limited in others), so the team has been able to put up their dominant numbers largely without him.
  • Tennessee is the No. 1 rated defensive team in the nation on KenPom, and are holding opponents to a 37 percent effective field goal rate, while also ranking 3rd nationally in turnover rate on defense.

Pick published: Dec 27 4:19pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

NCAAB Over/Under

Dayton at Saint Louis Under 137.5 -110

Won: 126 points

Fri Mar 3 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dayton and Saint Louis combine for fewer than 138 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Friday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 54.9% of the time (112-92-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Dayton's low number of possessions per game in recent games, their high assist-to-turnover ratio in recent games, and Saint Louis' higher three-point percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Mar 3 11:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 852

NCAAB Spread

Texas-El Paso -2.5 -110

Lost: 68-73

Western Kentucky at Texas-El Paso

Thu Mar 2 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTEP wins by more than 2 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Some model factors include UTEP's high steal rate and low opponent effective possession rate in recent games, and UTEP's low three-point rate in recent games.
  • Western Kentucky's Luke Frampton suffered a season-ending knee injury nine games ago, and the team has been a little worse since then. He still leads the team in made three-pointers despite being out, and is the most accurate outside shooter.
  • UTEP is also a little better than their overall rating due to an earlier stretch with injuries and lineup shuffling where they played worse.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 750

NCAAB Over/Under

Eastern Kentucky at Liberty Under 140.5 -110

Lost: 152 points

Thu Mar 2 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Kentucky and Liberty score fewer than 141 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.2% of the time (112-91-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Liberty's slow pace and low number of possessions per game, Liberty's extremely high (62%) two-point shooting rate in recent games, and Eastern Kentucky's high block rate and offensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306594

NCAAB Spread

American +6.5 -110

Won: 52-51

American at Navy

Thu Mar 2 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: American wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Navy is hosting American in the Patriot quarterfinal, and could be without shooting guard Sean Yoder, who suffered a shoulder injury a week ago and did not play in the season finale loss to Colgate.
  • American has had a lot of lineups and shifting due to injuries, and closed the regular season losing 7 of 8, but rebounded in the Patriot opener against Bucknell.
  • Some other regression model factors include Navy's opponents low shooting percentage in recent games, but high effective possession ratio, and American opponents in the last 7 games shooting the same from three (46%) as from two-point range.

Pick published: Mar 2 11:55am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306597

NCAAB Spread

Providence -3.5 -110

Lost: 89-94

Xavier at Providence

Wed Mar 1 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Providence wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
  • Providence got off to a slow start with three new transfer starters, but has been better since November, and their overall season power rating undervalues their current form. They are 16-5 ATS since the start of December.
  • Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle. They've largely been fine without him so far, but he is their best defensive rebounder, and Providence is the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the Big East, and top 20 nationally in that category, so his absence could be more impactful in this matchup.

Pick published: Mar 1 1:19pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 666

NCAAB Spread

Texas Christian -2.5 -110

Lost: 75-73

Texas at Texas Christian

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis and team trends.
  • TCU's power rating is significantly higher in games where Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Emmanuel Miller are all in the lineup.
  • Texas had a higher power rating, by about 6.5 points, in the 8 games with Chris Beard as head coach before he was suspended and then terminated, than since.
  • As a result, we have TCU power rated ahead of Texas, before HCA adjustments, after accounting for current lineup and coaching.

Pick published: Mar 1 1:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 704

NCAAB Moneyline

Stephen F. Austin To Win -118

Lost: 59-64

Sam Houston St. at Stephen F. Austin

Wed Mar 1 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stephen F. Austin wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick (SFA -1) for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
  • Sam Houston State's power rating is inflated by early November results and games against non-Division 1 schools.
  • Their "best" performance since November also came against a Utah Tech team playing without its starting point guard.
  • Stephen F. Austin, meanwhile, has been better since November. Guard Latrell Joss missed games with injury in November, and A.J. Cajuste wasn't in the starting lineup yet. In games with Cajuste at point guard and Joss starting at shooting guard, has a +4.8 power rating, compared to +2.2 in all other games.

Pick published: Mar 1 10:57am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 688

NCAAB Over/Under

Missouri at Louisiana St. Under 148.5 -110

Lost: 157 points

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri and LSU combine for fewer than 149 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.4% of the time (112-90-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Missouri's high steals per play in recent games vs. LSU's low opponent steals per game, Missouri opponents having a higher percentage of FTA to FGA in recent games, and Missouri's low rebounding numbers for the year.

Pick published: Mar 1 8:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 702

NCAAB Spread

Utah Tech -2.0 -110

Won: 93-56

Seattle at Utah Tech

Wed Mar 1 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Tech wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, but not quite playable (52.0%) but is a play based on team trends and roster analysis.
  • Utah Tech is a little better than their raw power rating, as point guard Cameron Gooden missed five games, and they included Utah Tech's worst, 3rd worst, and 4th worst opponent-adjusted performances of the year.
  • Seattle forward Riley Grigsby missed their last game with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown for tonight's game.

Pick published: Mar 1 8:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 708

NCAAB Spread

Georgia Tech +9.0 -110

Won: 96-76

Georgia Tech at Syracuse

Tue Feb 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Georgia Tech has had a lot of lineup inconsistency and had 11 different starting lineups this year, but is 6-0 ATS with the current lineup.
  • The Yellowjackets particularly struggled with Lance Terry missing games in the latter half of January, but the recent run of success has corresponded with his return.
  • Syracuse's famous zone has had their three worst defensive games in the last three, allowing the opponents to all rebound at least 36% of their misses, and make at least 59% of their two-point attempts in each, in blowout losses to Duke, Clemson, and PItt.

Pick published: Feb 28 10:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 617

NCAAB Spread

Fresno St. +8.5 -102

Lost: 80-94

Fresno St. at New Mexico

Tue Feb 28 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fresno State wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • After a 13-0 non-conference start, New Mexico has faltered in Mountain West play, dropping 6 of 8.
  • Fresno State has underperformed this year, but have had a lot of injuries and lineup shifts, and have been about 6.5 points better when the current starting lineup are all healthy.

Pick published: Feb 28 10:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 647

NCAAB Over/Under

Montana at Idaho Under 138.0 -110

Won: 121 points

Mon Feb 27 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana and Idaho combine for fewer than 138 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.5% of the time (111-89-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Montana's high three-point percentage (43%) in the last seven games, Montana opponents having a high FTA rate in recent games, and Idaho opponent's low total rebounds in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 27 12:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 860

NCAAB Spread

Penn St. -2.5 -115

Lost: 56-59

Rutgers at Penn St.

Sun Feb 26 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State wins the game by more than 2 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
  • Rutgers has lost 4 of the last 5 games, since starting forward Mawot Mag suffered a season-ending knee injury.
  • They have had three of their worst offensive performances in that span, and also had easily their worst defensive game of the year, allowing Nebraska to shoot 74% from two-point range in a loss to the Huskers where they allowed 82 points.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 844

NCAAB Over/Under

Siena at Iona Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 153 points

Sun Feb 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Siena and Iona combine for fewer than 140 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.6% of the time (110-89-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Iona's low three-point rate and low opponent points from threes in recent games, and Siena's high free throw attempt to field goal attempt rate in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:26am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 814

NCAAB Over/Under

Missouri St. at Indiana St. Under 138.5 -110

Won: 128 points

Sun Feb 26 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri State and Indiana State combine for fewer than 139 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 55.6% of the time (110-88-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Indiana State's high shooting percentage in the most recent 7 games, and Missouri State's low free throw percentage.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 818

NCAAB Spread

Illinois -4.5 -105

Lost: 60-72

Illinois at Ohio St.

Sun Feb 26 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Illinois wins the game by more than 4 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick, but is a pick based on team trends and injury news.
  • Ohio State has performed worse than their season-long power rating for nine straight games, and have lost nine straight games in the Big Ten, and 13 of 14.
  • Ohio State is bad defensively across the board, and just lost center Zed Key to injury. That leaves them really undersized on the front line, going against an Illinois team that will have a significant front court advantage.
  • Six straight Ohio State opponents have had an effective field goal percentage over 50%, with five of those over 56.0%.
  • Illinois has performed relatively better playing against teams that shoot a lower volume of threes (like Ohio State) going 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS against those outside the top 200 in three-point attempt rate, and 3-6 SU and 3-5-1 ATS against higher volume outside shooting teams.

Pick published: Feb 26 10:08am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 799

NCAAB Spread

Delaware St. +6.5 -110

Won: 78-83

Delaware St. at Morgan St.

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware State wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick and also a play based on team trends.
  • Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury nine games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -14.0, compared to -1.6 before.
  • Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Delaware State's relative strength is on the offensive glass. 

Pick published: Feb 25 2:01pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306641

NCAAB Spread

Southern California -2.5 -110

Won: 62-49

Southern California at Utah

Sat Feb 25 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is right on the edge of playable according to our models (52.4%) and also a play based on player news and trends.
  • Utah's leading three-point shooter Gabe Madsen suffered an injury early in the game seven games ago, and Utah has been about 8 points worse, and gone 1-6 ATS with him out.
  • Starting point guard Rollie Worster also missed the last game for Utah.

Pick published: Feb 25 1:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 761

NCAAB Spread

Vanderbilt -3.5 -115

Won: 88-72

Florida at Vanderbilt

Sat Feb 25 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vanderbilt wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and injuries.
  • Florida's best player and center Colin Castleton broke his hand and is out. The Gators have been about 10 points worse so far than their "rest of year" performance after two games without him.
  • That is despite opponents not hitting three-pointers, as they have allowed Kentucky and Arkansas to shoot over 60% on two point attempts.

Pick published: Feb 25 1:14pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 726

NCAAB Spread

Merrimack -12.5 -104

Won: 80-59

Merrimack at LIU

Sat Feb 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack wins the game by more than 12 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a pick based on matchup and team trends.
  • Merrimack leads the entire nation in turnovers forced per game, forcing turnovers on 26.2% of possessions.
  • LIU is 349th in the country in turnover rate on offense.
  • Merrimack's Jordan Minor, who is a candidate for Northeast Conference Player of the Year, missed 6 games in November. Since his return, Merrimack has been over 9 points better compared to their November results. After starting the year 1-9 ATS, Merrimack is 12-6 ATS since.

Pick published: Feb 25 10:15am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306611

NCAAB Over/Under

Youngstown St. at IUPUI Under 149.5 -110

Lost: 172 points

Sat Feb 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Youngstown State and IUPUI combine for fewer than 150 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Youngstown State's low opponent blocks this year, IUPUI's high turnovers and opponent steals in recent games, and IUPUI's low rate of shooting threes in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 750

NCAAB Over/Under

Florida St. at Miami Under 154.5 -110

Lost: 169 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida State and Miami combine for fewer than 155 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model factors include Miami's high shooting efficiency in recent games, Miami's opponents getting a high number of points from three-point shots in recent games, and Florida State opponent's offensive rebounding.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 676

NCAAB Over/Under

Norfolk St. at South Carolina St. Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 164 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Norfolk State and South Carolina State combine for under 151 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include SC State's high turnovers in recent games, Norfolk State's high opponent turnovers, Norfolk State's rebounding, and the low assists-to-turnover ratios in recent SC State games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 306632

NCAAB Over/Under

Rice at Charlotte Under 136.5 -110

Won: 124 points

Sat Feb 25 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rice and Charlotte combine for fewer than 137 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • So far this year, Decision Tree model picks on Unders rated at 56% or higher have gone Under 56.8% of the time (109-83-6). 
  • Some model impact factors include Charlotte's low opponent field goals made in recent games, Rice's low opponent turnovers, and Rice's relatively higher offensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 25 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 686

NCAAB Spread

Texas-San Antonio +17.5 -110

Lost: 66-106

Texas-San Antonio at Florida Atlantic

Thu Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas-San Antonio wins the game or loses by fewer than 18 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • Texas-San Antonio went through a six-game stretch in mid-January where point guard Japhet Medor and center Jacob Germany missed games, and they went 1-5 ATS, but have their full lineup now.
  • Florida Atlantic got off to a blistering 15-3-1 ATS start, but are 1-5 ATS over the last six games, and just lost on the road at Middle Tennessee.
  • Florida Atlantic's slide has happened despite high offensive efficiency, as the defensive numbers are down in recent weeks, both in terms of defensive rebounding and opponent interior shooting.

Pick published: Feb 23 12:46pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 753

NCAAB Spread

Elon University -1.0 -110

Lost: 60-73

Elon University at William & Mary

Thu Feb 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Elon wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This game is right on the edge of playable (52.4%) according to our models but is also a play based on team trends and player news.
  • William & Mary has been without starters Noah Collier and Gabe Dorsey for the last four games. So far this year they are about 3.5 points worse in games Collier misses, and that includes the one good performance where they beat Towson by 2 by shooting over 50% from three-point range.
  • The five other games without Collier have all been below-average performances compared to the season power rating.
  • Elon, meanwhile, has been about 4 points better in games played by Jerald Gillens-Butler, who missed the first month and a half of the season.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 765

NCAAB Over/Under

Portland at San Francisco Under 155.0 -110

Lost: 181 points

Thu Feb 23 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Portland and San Francisco combine for fewer than 155 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some of the model factors include Portland opponents shooting 40% from three in the last seven games, and the low block rate of opponents for both teams.
     

Pick published: Feb 23 11:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 834

NCAAB Over/Under

Southeastern Louisiana at Lamar Under 146.5 -110

Won: 143 points

Thu Feb 23 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SE Louisiana and Lamar combine for fewer than 147 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some model factors include the high steal and turnover rate that both teams have had in recent games, Lamar's low points per game in recent games, and SE Louisiana's higher defensive efficiency for the season but relatively high opponent three-point rate in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:25am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 306580

NCAAB Over/Under

Washington St. at Stanford Under 135.0 -110

Won: 130 points

Thu Feb 23 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington State and Stanford combine for fewer than 136 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some model factors include Stanford's higher shooting percentage in the most recent three games, both teams lower free throw percentage in recent games, and the higher overall offensive efficiency for both Stanford and their opponents in the last three games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 838

NCAAB Over/Under

Penn St. at Ohio St. Under 142.5 -110

Lost: 146 points

Thu Feb 23 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State and Ohio State combine for fewer than 143 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for CBB on Thursday.
  • So far this season, Unders rated at 56% or higher by our Decision Tree model are 107-80-6.
  • Some of the model factors include Penn State's low steals per play this season, and Ohio State's low three-point percentage and low number of possessions in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 23 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 746

NCAAB Moneyline

Morehead St. To Win -225

Won: 69-63

Morehead St. at Eastern Illinois

Wed Feb 22 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Morehead State wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated moneyline play for Wednesday in CBB.
  • So far this year, moneyline plays rated as highly as this one are +5.9 units across 43 games.
  • Model factors impacting this are Morehead State's excellent two-point shooting percentage defense in recent games coupled with limiting how many three pointers the opponents take.
  • Eastern Illinois is one of the worst outside shooting teams in the country, in terms of low volume and percentage rate. Morehead State held them to 33% shooting on two-point attempts in their previous matchup.
     

Pick published: Feb 22 2:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 719

NCAAB Spread

Kentucky -2.5 -110

Won: 82-74

Kentucky at Florida

Wed Feb 22 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player news and team trends.
  • Florida's center Colin Castleton suffered a broken hand and is out for the foreseeable future. In the first game without him, Florida lost by 19 at Arkansas as a 9-point dog.
  • Without their best player, Florida had to play a freshman who played more minutes in that game than he had all year, and started Jason Jitoboh, who had averaged less than 7 minutes a game in SEC play until that start.
  • Kentucky is top 3 in the nation in offensive rebound rate led by Oscar Tshiebwe, and Castleton was easily Florida's best defensive rebounder and shot blocker.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:35pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

NCAAB Over/Under

New Mexico at Boise St. Under 147.0 -110

Lost: 159 points

Wed Feb 22 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Mexico and Boise State combine for under 147 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable Over/Under for Wednesday in CBB.
  • For the year, Unders rated at 56% or better by our Decision Tree Model are 107-79-6.
  • Some of the factors that our models are picking up are New Mexico's low rate of shooting threes in recent games, and Boise State's high shooting percentage in recent games.

Pick published: Feb 22 1:14pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 738

NCAAB Spread

Villanova +5.0 -110

Won: 64-63

Villanova at Xavier

Tue Feb 21 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick at +4.5, but you can still get +5 or +5.5 at a few books.
  • Villanova has played much better in the last month, though some of the results may not reflect that. They have won 3 of the last 4, and before that had 2nd half leads in losses to Creighton, Marquette, and Providence.
  • Justin Moore has returned for the last 7 games from his Achilles injury suffered in last year's NCAA Tournament, and has struggled shooting from outside so far but is coming off his two best offensive games since coming back.
  • Xavier is still without Zach Freemantle, who has missed the last three weeks and will likely be out at least one more.

Pick published: Feb 21 11:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 601

NCAAB Spread

UNC Greensboro -3.0 -110

Won: 93-76

UNC Greensboro at Chattanooga

Sat Feb 18 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UNC-Greensboro wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player participation.
  • Chattanooga's Jake Stephens suffered an injury eight games ago. The Mocs have won and covered the last three, but over the full eight are still 5.5 points worse with their best player out.

Pick published: Feb 18 8:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 615

NCAAB Spread

South Carolina +9.5 -110

Won: 64-61

South Carolina at Mississippi

Sat Feb 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model picks for Saturday in CBB.
  • South Carolina has covered three of the last four as a dog in the SEC, including a close two-point loss to Arkansas, and a nine-point loss at Missouri this week, in a game that was close until the final few minutes.
  • The Gamecocks have had four straight games of rebounding at least 37 percent of their own misses, which are the four highest offensive rebounding games in SEC play since their win at Kentucky. Mississippi is 259th nationally in defensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Feb 11 7:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 619

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M +4.5 -110

Won: 79-63

Texas A&M at Auburn

Wed Jan 25 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean, but is playable based on matchup factors.
  • Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS (covering by an average of 9.3 points) when playing an opponent that is outside the Top 200 in defensive rebound rate, and 3-6 ATS in all other games.
  • Auburn is 284th in defensive rebounding percentage, with opponents getting 31.4% of their own missed shots, and it is their one glaring weakness across otherwise stellar defensive numbers.
  • Auburn is 1-3 ATS against teams in the Top 50 in offensive rebound rate, and Texas A&M is 11th in that category, the highest-rated team Auburn has played so far.
  • Auburn is 2-6 ATS against teams that are Top 50 in opponent 2-point % (7-4 ATS against all others), and Texas A&M also rates 18th in that category.

Pick published: Jan 25 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 715

NCAAB Over/Under

Iowa St. at Texas Under 136.0 -110

Won: 126 points

Tue Feb 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State and Texas combine for fewer than 136 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Tuesday.
  • Texas shoots a high percentage on two-point shots, but Iowa State's defense ranks 1st in the conference in blocks.
  • Iowa State power forward Aljaz Kunc missed 10 games in late December and January with injury, and 6 of 10 games went Over, but Cyclones games are 3-13 on the Over with Kunc playing.
  • Iowa State's leading outside shooter, Caleb Grill, is questionable for tonight after missing the last game with a lingering back injury.

Pick published: Feb 21 12:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 648

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -1.0 -110

Won: 68-63

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Tue Feb 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than a point on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on recent team trends.
  • Tennessee's power rating is inflated by their performance against poor offenses and weaker overall teams.
  • Against teams that are top 150 offenses on KenPom, Tennessee is only 8-7 SU and 4-11 ATS, compared to 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS against all others.
  • Texas A&M is ranked 24th in offensive efficiency and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference.

Pick published: Feb 21 11:34am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 624

NCAAB Spread

Howard -6.5 -110

Lost: 76-89

Howard at Morgan St.

Mon Feb 20 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Howard wins the game by more than 6 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is close to a playable model pick (52.2%) but is a play based on team trends.
  • Morgan State's best rebounder and all-around player Malik Miller suffered an injury eight games ago in the blowout loss to Howard, and in the last eight games, Morgan State's average rating has been -16.3, compared to -1.7 before.
  • Howard is on a nine-game win streak and has moved to first in the MEAC.
  • Morgan State is next to last in all Division 1 in defensive rebounding rate, and Howard has a signficiant size and rebounding advantage.

Pick published: Feb 20 11:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306503

NCAAB Spread

Valparaiso -1.0 -110

Lost: 73-74

Valparaiso at Illinois-Chicago

Sun Feb 19 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Valparaiso wins the game by more than 1 point on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model spread pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on team trends and player participation.
  • Valparaiso has been about 5.5 points better over the last 16 games compared to their first 12 games of the season.
  • Illinois-Chicago has been without their two leading scorers, Tre Anderson and Jace Carter, for the last two games for undisclosed reasons and has failed to cover both.

Pick published: Feb 19 11:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 835

NCAAB Spread

North Dakota St. +13.5 -102

Won: 66-74

North Dakota St. at Oral Roberts

Sat Feb 18 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game or loses by fewer than 14 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday and also a play based on team trends.
  • North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 13 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.

Pick published: Feb 18 11:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 773

NCAAB Spread

Vermont -13.0 -110

Lost: 82-80

Vermont at NJIT

Sat Feb 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vermont wins the game by more than 13 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Vermont got off to a rough start, but has been 10 points better since December 1st compared to their November results, and have gone 13-4 ATS since.
  • NJIT's Miles Coleman is also out, and NJIT has been about 5 points worse in the nine games without him as a starter this year.

Pick published: Feb 18 11:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306667

NCAAB Spread

North Dakota St. -1.5 -114

Won: 69-58

North Dakota St. at Kansas City

Thu Feb 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends.
  • North Dakota State is one of the youngest and least experienced teams in D1, and over the last 12 games (since Christmas) they have been about 9.5 points better on average compared to their first 14 games, when their best player Grant Nelson also missed three games.
  • Kansas City's David Allen Mukaba missed the last game, and in five games without him, Kansas City is about 5 points worse. Mukaba is Kansas City's best rebounder.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:53am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 795

NCAAB Over/Under

Purdue at Maryland Under 132.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Thu Feb 16 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Maryland combine for fewer than 133 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
  • Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-12 Over in all other matchups.
  • Purdue has been efficient on offense but the one flaw is that they rank dead last in Big Ten play in turnover rate. Maryland is 3rd in defensive turnover rate behind only Rutgers and Northwestern. In games against those three teams so far, Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, lost to Northwestern 64-58, and beat Maryland only 58-55 in the previous matchup at home in a defensive struggle.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 750

NCAAB Spread

Monmouth-NJ +4.5 -102

Lost: 62-77

Monmouth-NJ at Northeastern

Thu Feb 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Monmouth wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team trends and performance.
  • Monmouth started 1-20 but has won 5 of the last 6 games, and are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with current lineup with Jakari Spence as starting point guard.
  • Monmouth entered the year as one of the least experienced teams in D1 and got off to that horrifiic start, and there is reason to think their recent improvement is real based on a young, inexperienced team with new players figuring out the best rotations.

Pick published: Feb 16 9:29am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 779

NCAAB Spread

Furman -15.5 -105

Lost: 65-69

Furman at The Citadel

Wed Feb 15 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins the game by more than 15 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday.
  • It is also a play based on recent team trends and peformance.
  • After a 4-8 ATS start, this Furman team has been rolling through the Southern Conference, covering 11 of their last 12 games, and winning five straight by double digits.
  • Furman leads the Southern Conference in two-point shooting percentage on offense, and Citadel is next-to-last in defense on two-point shots.
  • Furman also plays at the fastest pace in the conference, which gives them more possessions to expand the lead in mismatches. 

Pick published: Feb 15 10:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 665

NCAAB Spread

Mississippi +9.5 -102

Lost: 64-79

Mississippi at Florida

Wed Feb 15 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick on Wednesday in CBB.
  • Ole Miss has been strong on the offensive glass in recent games, a potential vulnerability for Florida that can keep the underdog close.
  • Florida also has a low percentage of their points coming from three in recent games, and hasn't shot it well or at high frequency.
  • Mississippi also has some value because they are better with Matthew Murrell back, after he missed three games with injury that were all well below the team average in terms of power rating.

Pick published: Feb 15 10:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 657

NCAAB Over/Under

Air Force at Utah St. Under 138.0 -110

Lost: 145 points

Tue Feb 14 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Utah State combine for fewer than 138 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated over/under model play for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Air Force's strength is two-point shooting percentage, and they are coming off a game where they upset New Mexico while shooting 72% on twos, but Utah State leads the Mountain West in interior shooting percentage defense.
  • Utah State, meanwhile, is the best in the conference at three-point shooting, but is going against an Air Force defense that ranks 20th nationally in three-point percentage defense.

Pick published: Feb 14 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 640

NCAAB Spread

South Carolina St. -1.0 -110

Won: 74-62

South Carolina St. vs. Morgan St.

Mon Feb 13 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina State wins the game by more than one point on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for Monday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on player participation news and trends.
  • Morgan State's Malik Miller, their best all-around player, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder, suffered a torn ACL three weeks ago.
  • Since his injury, Morgan State is 2-4 ATS with three of the non-covers coming by double digits. They are about 13 points worse over the last six games compared to the rest of the season. 
  • Morgan State is dead last in Division 1 at defensive rebounding and has struggled even more with Miller out, while South Carolina State's primary strength on offense is their offensive rebounding (41st nationally).

Pick published: Feb 13 11:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306510

NCAAB Over/Under

Purdue at Northwestern Under 131.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Sun Feb 12 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Northwestern combine for fewer than 132 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Sunday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on team matchup trends.
  • Purdue's over/under trends have shown a strong correlation with the type of defense opponents pay and whether they create turnovers. They are 8-3 Overs going against teams outside the top 250 in defensive turnover rate (which includes several Big Ten teams) but only 3-11 Over in all other matchups.
  • Northwestern is 33rd nationally in turnover rate, and 2nd in the Big Ten. Against Rutgers (No. 1 in Big Ten) Purdue lost to Rutgers 65-64, and against Maryland (No. 3 in Big Ten) they won 58-55 at home in a defensive struggle.

Pick published: Feb 12 8:39am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 854

NCAAB Spread

Iowa St. -6.0 -110

Lost: 56-64

Oklahoma St. at Iowa St.

Sat Feb 11 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Oklahoma State is playing without point guard Anthony Anderson, who underwent wrist surgery and has missed the last two games. While they have won the last two (against TCU and Texas Tech teams that had their own injury issues) the matchup with Iowa State is a tough one without Anderson.
  • Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in turnovers forced, and Anderson led the Cowboys in assists to turnovers.

Pick published: Feb 11 10:36am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 742

NCAAB Spread

Texas Tech +1.0 -110

Won: 71-63

Kansas St. at Texas Tech

Sat Feb 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • We've also seen some line movement that is likely player participation related at some market-leading books, and Texas Tech has started to move to the favorite role.
  • Texas Tech has had a frustrating year (1-10 in the Big 12) after finishing as a top 10 team a year ago, and has battled numerous injuries.
  • Center Fardaws Aimaq, who was WAC Player of the Year in 2021 and transferred from Utah Valley, has played in only three games all year, but was described as "day-to-day" on Friday after traveling with the team mid-week but not playing at Oklahoma State.

Pick published: Feb 11 10:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 766

NCAAB Over/Under

Connecticut at Creighton Under 142.5 -110

Won: 109 points

Sat Feb 11 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Connecticut and Creighton combine for fewer than 143 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under play for Saturday.
  • We also like this Under based on recent Creighton defensive trends.
  • As we noted in our spread pick for Creighton, their defense has been significantly better over the last 12 games since center Ryan Kalkbrenner's return from illness. They have limited opponents to shooting only 43% from two-point range over that span.
  • Connecticut is reliant on getting on the offensive glass in their offense, but Creighton ranks highly in that category and can limit second chances. 
  • Both of these teams are among the best in the country at limiting outside shooting attempts.

Pick published: Feb 11 9:52am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 662

NCAAB Spread

Creighton -4.5 -110

Lost: 56-53

Connecticut at Creighton

Sat Feb 11 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Creighton wins the game by more than 4 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model play but is a pick based on team trends.
  • Creighton has been dominant in the last month. This team entered with high preseason expectations, but went through a tough December stretch that included center Ryan Kalkbrenner missing three games with illness.
  • Since Kalkbrenner's return, they've averaged a +20.9 Game Score over the last 12 games, which is national title contender quality, compared to +12.6 before.
  • The primary improvements for Creighton have been defensively, where they are limiting opponents on the boards much better, and where opponents have shot only 43% from two-point range over the last 12. (For perspective, that would rank 6th nationally if that was their rate all year).
  • Connecticut, meanwhile, started the year 12-0 SU and 11-0-1 ATS. Since then, they are 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS.
  • The primary differences in UConn now are also defensively, in that they are not turning opponents  over as much and are performing worse on defensive rebounding and interior shooting percentage.
  • UConn relies on getting on the offensive glass, where they rank 5th nationally, but Creighton has been really strong there.

Pick published: Feb 11 9:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 662

NCAAB Spread

Charleston -17.0 -110

Lost: 83-70

Charleston at Hampton

Sat Feb 11 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charleston wins the game by more than 17 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick for Saturday.
  • Charleston has rebounded from their first two conference losses by covering the last two games by a combined 32.5 points.
  • Charleston has a clear advantage in this game against Hampton's poor defense, and has a decided advantage in rebounding on both the offensive and defensive ends.
  • Hampton ranks dead last in CAA play in opponent effective shooting percentage, and two-point shooting on offense, and Charleston is one of the best in the nation at limiting three-point shots.
  • These are also two of the faster-paced teams in conference play, which should increase possessions for Charleston to score more and cover the larger number.

Pick published: Feb 11 8:35am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

NCAAB Spread

UC Santa Barbara -1.5 -105

Won: 75-72

UC Santa Barbara at Long Beach St.

Thu Feb 9 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCSB wins by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • UCSB is coming off their worst opponent adjusted performance, a 5-point loss to CS-Northridge where they blew a 9-point lead with just under 10 minutes left, and had two key starters foul out.
  • The last two opponents against UCSB have combined to go 16-of-34 from three and 30-of-34 from the FT line, while UCSB has "won" most of the other fundamental categories.
  • Long Beach is a poor shooting team that takes threes at the lowest rate in the country, and is heavily reliant on offensive rebounding, an area where UCSB is very good, so several of UCSB's strengths matchup here. 
     

Pick published: Feb 9 12:26pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 833

NCAAB Spread

Fairleigh Dickinson -11.5 -110

Lost: 80-79

Fairleigh Dickinson at LIU

Thu Feb 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fairleigh Dickinson wins by more than 11 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • LIU is now dead last among all Division 1 schools in our predictive power ratings, and are 1-20 SU against D-1 schools this season. They are 1-8-1 ATS in last 10 and 2-12-1 in last 15.
  • Some of the model factors are LIU having a high rate of steals against them both recently and for season, FDU's steal rate in recent games, FDU's good interior and overall shooting in recent games, and LIU's poor overall rating.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:05pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306569

NCAAB Spread

Florida International -1.0 -110

Won: 66-62

Louisiana Tech at Florida International

Thu Feb 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than 1 point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but just under a playable pick with our models, but is a play based on matchup and roster trends.
  • Louisiana Tech guard Keaston Willis, who is second in minutes played and leads the team in three-point rate and lowest turnover rate among guards, missed the last game with injury.
  • Florida International plays a fast-paced pressing style and with Willis out last game, Louisiana Tech mostly played a six-man rotation.

Pick published: Feb 9 12:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 756

NCAAB Moneyline

Utah St. To Win -130

Lost: 61-63

San Diego St. at Utah St.

Wed Feb 8 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game on Wednesday night.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline and spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • The spreads available differ in both the spread and payout odds, in the -1.5 to -2.5 range,
  • Utah State lost by 10 to San Diego State on the road two weeks ago, in a game where the difference was San Diego State's +11 advantage in free throws made.
  • Utah State actually shot 65% from two, but were only 11-of-33 from three, while San Diego State hit 55% from three (their high all season) but only 44% from two.
  • Some model factors here include Utah State's high offensive efficiency in the recent three-game win streak (and all season), and their usually high rate of getting to the line (where the previous San Diego State matchup was an outlier).

Pick published: Feb 8 11:11am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 742

NCAAB Spread

Furman -16.5 -105

Won: 94-63

Furman at VMI

Wed Feb 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins the game by more than 16 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick and also a play based on team trends and player news.
  • Furman is a veteran team that is now our projected favorite to win the Southern Conference after a six-game win streak, and is a highly efficient offensive team.
  • VMI is a very young team that is among the lowest-rated in the country, and now has potential injury issues.
  • Freshman starting guard Rickey Bradley missed the last game with injury, and senior guard Sean Conway left the game after only 14 minutes. VMI has only six other players who have played significant minutes this year, and they lost by 26 points at Mercer without them.

Pick published: Feb 8 10:32am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 687

NCAAB Spread

Monmouth-NJ +3.5 -110

Won: 61-54

Monmouth-NJ at Stony Brook

Wed Feb 8 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Monmouth wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It is also a play based on player news and recent trends.
  • Stony Brook's leading scorer by points per game, guard Tyler Stephenson-Moore, has missed the last three games after being taken off the court on a back board following a fall on January 26th. 
  • Stony Brook has performed worse in its recent games, and is about 5 points worse without Stephenson-Moore than in the games he played.
  • Monmouth, meanwhile, ranks highly in our "momentum" metric comparing recent performances to earlier in the season. They have now won 3 straight after a 1-20 start, and Monmouth was one of the least experienced teams entering the year, and has had a lot of players get minutes, but has had the same starting lineup for four straight games, the longest stretch all year with the same starters.

Pick published: Feb 8 10:19am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 665

NCAAB Spread

Ball St. -8.5 -105

Won: 65-51

Ball St. at Central Michigan

Tue Feb 7 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ball State wins the game by more than 8 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday night in CBB.
  • Central Michigan's guard Jesse Zarzuela, who leads the team in scoring per game, missed the last game, and the Chippewas have been about 10 points worse in the six games so far he has missed.
  • Central Michigan's defensive numbers have been really poor of late, as over the last five games, opponents have made 53% of two-pointers, 42% of threes, and rebounded 39% of the missed shots they did have.

Pick published: Feb 7 11:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 613

NCAAB Spread

Maryland +3.5 -110

Lost: 58-63

Maryland at Michigan St.

Tue Feb 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Maryland wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Maryland went through a rough stretch in late December, with a blowout loss to UCLA and some short-term injuries to starters Donald Carey and Julian Reese, but have returned to top form recently.
  • Maryland has covered six straight and won the last four games all by double digits.
  • Some of the model factors being picked up are Maryland's defensive efficiency numbers in the most recent seven games, as well as Michigan State's opponents shooting relatively poorly from outside, even while they have only covered two of their last seven.
  • Michigan State has also struggled scoring on the inside, only topping 50% on two-point attempts once in the last seven games.

Pick published: Feb 7 11:25am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 645

NCAAB Over/Under

Purdue at Indiana Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 153 points

Sat Feb 4 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue and Indiana combine for fewer than 140 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Purdue has been Under 14 of 23 games, but gone Over the last three because of shorter term outside shooting trends, hitting 43% from three while opponents have hit 39% over the last three games.
  • Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best interior defenders and shot blockers in the country, setting up a strength-on-strength matchup against Purdue's All-American center Zach Edey where both should somewhat neutralize each other inside.

Pick published: Feb 4 7:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 694

NCAAB Spread

Hawaii -6.5 -110

Won: 69-56

Hawaii at Cal Poly SLO

Sat Feb 4 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hawaii wins the game by more than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • The model is picking up the differences in Hawaii's defensive quality versus Cal Poly SLO's poor offensive numbers.
  • Hawaii has also had a discrepancy in their two-point shooting and three-point shooting. They have made over 60% of twos in the last two games, and Cal Poly has allowed opponents to make over 60% of their shots from two in the last two games.

Pick published: Feb 4 6:31am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 803

NCAAB Spread

Mississippi +4.5 -105

Won: 71-74

Mississippi at Vanderbilt

Sat Feb 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ole Miss wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Ole Miss leading scorer Matthew Murrell is expected to return after missing the last three games with a knee sprain (and being a game time decision in the last two).
  • Ole Miss has struggled more with faster-paced pressure teams, going 0-5 ATS and failing to cover by 13 points on average against top 100 offensive pace teams, but that is not Vanderbilit, who ranks well below average at 289th in offensive pace.

Pick published: Feb 4 6:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 625

NCAAB Spread

Delaware St. +5.0 -110

Lost: 65-75

Morgan St. vs. Delaware St.

Sat Feb 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware State wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick but is a play based on roster trends and news.
  • Morgan State is dead last in defensive rebounding, and their numbers have been even worse recently, with injuries to their two best rebounders. They have had their three worst opponent-adjusted games in the last four contests, with both out.
  • Delaware State has covered 5 of the last 6, and won the last three outright as underdogs, since making Corey Perkins the starting point guard.

Pick published: Feb 4 5:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306594

NCAAB Spread

Arkansas -11.5 -110

Lost: 65-63

Arkansas at South Carolina

Sat Feb 4 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins the game by more than 11 on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in CBB for Saturday.
  • It's also a play based on matchup trends.
  • South Carolina has really struggled in SEC play other than the surprise upset at Kentucky. 
  • They've particularly struggled against teams that can create turnovers, as they are 3-0 ATS in conference play in the games against teams that are outside the top 200 in defensive turnover rate, but 0-6 ATS otherwise in the SEC.
  • Arkansas rates 47th nationally in defensive turnover rate.
  • Arkansas has also performed better against teams that rate poorly in offensive turnovers, going 8-3-1 ATS against teams outside the top 200 in turnover rate.
  • Arkansas is also one of the best interior scoring teams South Carolina has faced, another area where the Gamecocks have struggled.

Pick published: Feb 4 5:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 679

NCAAB Spread

Saint Mary's -4.5 -110

Won: 78-70

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's

Sat Feb 4 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Mary's wins by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on matchup trends.
  • Gonzaga is only 7-14-1 ATS this year, but has particularly struggled against teams that play at a slower offensive pace, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS (with an average Game Score of +4.5 compared to +19 for all other games) against teams outside the top 200 in offensive pace.
  • St. Mary's is 359th in the country at offensive pace. 
  • Gonzaga is also 1-7 ATS against teams that rank in the top 50 in defensive rebound rate, and St. Mary's is 3rd nationally in that regard.

Pick published: Feb 3 4:54pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 822

NCAAB Spread

New Hampshire -2.5 -105

Won: 74-67

New Hampshire at NJIT

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Hampshire wins the game by more than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It is also a pick based on player news and participation trends.
  • New Hampshire has been about 10 points better with Nick Johnson in the starting lineup, compared to the first seven games of the year.
  • NJIT has been without leading scorer Miles Coleman after he left early in the game three games ago. They did upset UMBC in the last game, but that is entirely due to outside shooting differences (5-of-21 for UMBC vs. 9-of-19 for NJIT from three) offsetting disadvantages at inside scoring and turnovers.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:33am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306533

NCAAB Spread

Utah St. -4.5 -110

Won: 84-73

New Mexico at Utah St.

Wed Feb 1 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game by more than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model spread pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • The model is picking up some of the differences in defensive performance and opponent splits on two-point versus three-point shots as a factor.
  • Utah State and New Mexico rank similarly in overall defensive efficiency in Mountain West play, but New Mexico is dead last in conference play in two-point defense percentage and block rate, and 1st in three-point percentage against. Utah State is 1st in two-point percentage defense but 10th in three-point percentage.
  • New Mexico is also a low volume outside shooting team, playing into Utah State's strengths, as the Lobos have the 10th-lowest three-point attempt rate in the country.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 728

NCAAB Spread

Furman -10.5 -110

Won: 79-58

Chattanooga at Furman

Wed Feb 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins by more than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on team trends and player news.
  • Chattanooga lost star center Jake Stephens to an injury three games ago, and are 1-2 ATS and SU, and are 10.5 points worse than their performance in games with Stephens so far, in that limited sample size. 
  • They did cover and win their last game, but that was entirely due to three-point shooting, as they hit 12-of-23 from deep, and were +18 in three-point scoring in a 9-point win. Chattanooga shot only 34% from inside the arc without Stephens in that game.
  • Furman is 7-1 ATS since the start of January, and is third nationally in two-point shooting (58%), and should have an advantage inside against a team playing without its best rebounder, shot blocker, and interior scorer.

Pick published: Feb 1 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 674

NCAAB Spread

Kentucky -7.5 -110

Won: 75-66

Kentucky at Mississippi

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the game by more than 7 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • These teams are also going in opposite directions in recent trends.
  • Kentucky's current starting lineup for the past five games, with Cason Wallace starting at PG and Sahvir Wheeler coming off bench, has been nine points better than their first 16 games, when they had several injuries and shifting lineups.
  • Ole Miss has been 7.5 points worse over the last 10 games compared to the first 11 games of the year, and were https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Kermit-Davis-reveals-why-Daeshun-Ruffin-was-left-at-home-when-Ole-Miss-Rebels-faced-Oklahoma-State-203837970/without starters Matthew Murrell and Daeshun Ruffin in the last game at Oklahoma State.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:43am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 645

NCAAB Spread

West Virginia +2.5 -105

Lost: 72-76

West Virginia at Texas Christian

Tue Jan 31 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on player news.
  • TCU's Mike Miles, the leading scorer for the Horned Frogs, suffered a hyperextended knee in the first few minutes of Saturday's loss at Mississippi State, and is out indefinitely. 
  • In 4 games that Miles has missed or left early (Saturday's game) so far this year, TCU is 7 points worse than in games that he plays regular minutes.
  • West Virginia also has a matchup advantage in offensive rebounding, where TCU ranks 298th nationally in defensive rebounding while the Mountaineers are 28th in offensive rebound rate.

Pick published: Jan 31 10:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 647

NCAAB Over/Under

Iowa St. at Texas Tech Under 128.5 -105

Lost: 157 points

Mon Jan 30 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State and Texas Tech combine for fewer than 129 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Monday in CBB.
  • Both teams have some short term three-point shooting trends that offer regression potential on the total.
  • Iowa State's last two opponents, Kansas State and Missouri, have made 23-of-46 from outside in the last two games, and the Cyclones allowed more than 70 points for the first time since December 8th.
  • Iowa State still allows a low number of possessions and does not allow a lot of two-point scoring, as only 42% of opponent points come from two-point range for the year.
  • Texas Tech is coming off an uncharacteristic 11-of-18 from three in their win over LSU on Saturday, easily the best percentage they have shot for the year.
  • Iowa State will likely be without guard Caleb Grill for the second game in a row due to a back injury, and he is second in made three-pointers on the team for the year.
  • Texas Tech will likely be without guard Pop Isaacs, who leads the team in made threes for the Red Raiders this year.

Pick published: Jan 30 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 876

NCAAB Spread

CSU Northridge +16.0 -110

Lost: 56-81

CSU Northridge at UC Irvine

Sat Jan 28 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: CSU Northridge wins the game or loses by fewer than 16 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player availability and team trends.
  • UC-Irvine's 7-foot center Bent Leuchten had arthroscopic knee surgery three weeks ago and has missed the last five games, and UC-Irvine's average performance is 5 points worse when adjusting for opponent.

Pick published: Jan 28 11:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 793

NCAAB Spread

Mississippi St. +2.5 -105

Won: 81-74

Texas Christian at Mississippi St.

Sat Jan 28 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mississippi State wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Mississippi State's strength is their offensive rebounding, which is one of TCU's relative weaknesses.
  • TCU's best rebounder and interior defender, Eddie Lampkin, missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status is up in the air for this one. Mississippi State center Tolu Smith will present a mismatch if Lampkin is out or limited, as TCU has only one other rotation player over 6'7".

Pick published: Jan 28 10:39am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 692

NCAAB Spread

Utah Valley -10.5 -110

Lost: 77-72

New Mexico St. at Utah Valley

Sat Jan 28 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Valley wins the game by more than 10 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends.
  • We are going to repeat our comments from last weekend's ATS pick win against New Mexico State with a lot of these.
  • New Mexico State has the lowest average rating in our "momentum" measure among teams playing on Saturday, as the team has been in free fall mode over the last month. New Mexico State averaged a +6.3 Game Score in the first 10 games but is at -7.9 over the last ten.
  • The Aggies are in the first year with new coach Greg Heiar, after Chris Jans went to Mississippi State, and have had the truly unique situation with the shooting involving freshman Mike Peake, and the aftermath that came out in December that could be a factor affecting the team.
  • New Mexico State's poor play is just getting worse, as their three worst games by adjusted Game Score have come in the last three, and they are dead last in defensive efficiency and most defensive metrics in WAC play. They are allowing opponents an effective field goal percentage of 59% in conference play.
  • New Mexico State is also dead last in block rate, while Utah Valley is first in the conference.
  • Utah Valley is 2nd in two-point shooting percentage, trailing only a Southern Utah team that just scored 111 points against New Mexico State two games ago.

Pick published: Jan 28 9:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 696

NCAAB Spread

Wake Forest -3.5 -110

Lost: 77-79

NC State at Wake Forest

Sat Jan 28 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wake Forest wins the game by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a borderline playable pick right now, and a pick based on player injury participation and recent team trends.
  • NC State Center Dusan Mahorcic suffered a dislocated patella back in early December and forward Jack Clark suffered a core muscle injury in early January, and they are the two best defensive rebounders on the team, leaving NC State thin on the front line. 
  • The Wolfpack's defensive numbers have been on the decline in recent weeks, with defensive rebounding being a major component. NC State is 1-3 ATS in the last four, have posted two subpar performances in a row, and got the cover three games ago because Georgia Tech was 2-for-21 from three.
  • Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in the last nine, and has some positive regression potential on opponent threes, as opponents have hit 33 of 71 in the last two games, the two highest percentage and highest total games allowed all year.

Pick published: Jan 28 9:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 620

NCAAB Spread

West Virginia -3.5 -110

Lost: 80-77

Auburn at West Virginia

Sat Jan 28 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: West Virginia wins by more than 3 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model spread pick for CBB on Saturday.
  • It's also a play based on matchup factors.
  • The most similar Auburn opponent to West Virginia is the one they just lost to on Wednesday to end their home court win streak, Texas A&M, in terms of rebounding, turnovers, and defensive approach and pressure.
  • Auburn is 1-4 ATS against top 50 teams in offensive rebounding, failing to cover by an average of 9 points (West Virginia is 25th in that category). In contrast, Auburn is 5-2 against teams outside the top 150 in offensive rebounding, and they rank 284th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, their biggest weakness on defense.
  • Auburn has also struggled against physical, aggressive teams that foul and draw lots of fouls. They are 1-4 ATS against teams that are bottom 100 in free throw rate allowed on defense, and 3-5 ATS against teams that are top 100 in free throw rate on offense. West Virginia games feature a lot of fouls on both sides.

Pick published: Jan 27 5:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 602

NCAAB Spread

UC Davis -7.5 -115

Won: 79-58

UC Davis at CSU Bakersfield

Thu Jan 26 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UC-Davis wins the game by more than 7 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on player participation and injury news.
  • CS-Bakersfield lost starting point guard Kaleb Higgins to a season-ending knee injury on January 5th, and are about 6 points worse in games played without him, after adjusting for opponent, and are 1-4 ATS over the last five without him.
  • The two tallest players on the roster, Modestas Kancleris and Ugnius Jarusevicius, both missed the last game with injuries and are expected to be out multiple weeks, and the team is thin in the frontcourt now as well.

Pick published: Jan 26 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 821

NCAAB Spread

Florida International -1.0 -110

Won: 78-69

Western Kentucky at Florida International

Thu Jan 26 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than a point on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks for Thursday in CBB.
  • In addition, it's a play here because of player injury and participation news for Western Kentucky.
  • Western Kentucky's 7'5" center Jamarion Sharp missed the last game with a hip injury and his status for this game is uncertain, while the team's leading outside shooter, Luke Frampton, just suffered a torn ACL in the last game. 
  • Florida International is playing better of late as well, and after a 2-8 ATS start to the year, are 6-2 ATS since December 31st.

Pick published: Jan 26 12:53pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 744

NCAAB Spread

Wofford +2.0 -110

Won: 85-80

Wofford at Chattanooga

Wed Jan 25 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wofford wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a play based on player injury news.
  • Chattanooga's 7-foot center Jake Stephens suffered a hand injury and missed the last game, a 16-point loss to East Tennessee State. Stephens leads the team in points (21.8), rebounds (10.2), assists (3.6), and blocks (2.4). Based on coach comments, it sounds like a multi-game injury and his return timeline is uncertain.
  • Chattanooga allowed ETSU to make 69% of its two-point attempts without Stephens (50% allowed for season with him.)

Pick published: Jan 25 12:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 691

NCAAB Over/Under

Air Force at San Jose St. Under 126.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Tue Jan 24 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and San Jose State combine for fewer than 127 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Over/Under for Tuesday in CBB.
  • These are two of the three lowest-paced teams in the Mountain West, and both are in the bottom 15 in all of Division 1 in offensive pace, so they will need higher efficiency to go Over.
  • Air Force has played two of its three slowest-paced games in the last three contests, going Under with both of those.
  • San Jose State's last three opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of above 52%, with two high percentage three-point games, but they have held the previous 17 opponents under that mark 13 times, so there is regression potential from recent shooting trends here as well.
  • San Jose State opponents have made 77% of their free throws for the year, while Air Force's last three opponents have hit 85% of their free throws.

Pick published: Jan 24 11:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 654

NCAAB Spread

Bowling Green -2.5 -110

Won: 83-61

Bowling Green at Central Michigan

Tue Jan 24 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bowling Green wins by more than 2 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Central Michigan was without two starters, Carrington McCaskill and leading scorer, Jesse Zarzuela, in the last game, a 28-point loss (+12.5 line) to Ohio, and while there is no public info on their status for this one, the line has started to move against Central Michigan.
  • Central Michigan is 0-3 ATS with an average result of -12.5 from the spread in games without Zarzuela this year.
  • Bowling Green had injury and illness issues a week ago, and lost two games by 45 combined points with multiple players out, but bounced back with a 10-point win on Saturday against Miami-Ohio.

Pick published: Jan 24 11:22am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 607

NCAAB Spread

Iowa St. -5.0 -110

Lost: 80-76

Kansas St. at Iowa St.

Tue Jan 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick in CBB for Tuesday.
  • Iowa State's defensive numbers have been stellar, as they lead the entire nation in turnover rate forced, and are first in Big 12 play in defensive rebounding.
  • Kansas State is one of the best at getting 2-point attempts but Iowa State limits opponents from inside and opponents tend to have to shoot more from outside against the Cyclones.
  • Kansas State is up to 5th in the AP Poll after getting to 17-2, but is 4-0 in OT (including 3-0 in Big 12 games) and is only the 6th-highest power-rated team in Big 12 play, and behind Iowa State. So you are getting a team shooting up in the rankings, on the road at a team that can tie them in the standings, and rates higher in a lot of underlying metrics.

Pick published: Jan 24 10:44am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 650

NCAAB Spread

Kentucky -5.5 -110

Won: 69-53

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Tue Jan 24 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins by more than 5 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick for Tuesday in CBB.
  • Kentucky went through a mid-season swoon, but has won and covered three in a row starting with a win at Tennessee, and they are playing much better defensively, particularly with defensive rebounding, and have been dominating on the boards in the last three. 
  • Vanderbilt is really thin on the front line due to injuries, and will be without their two best rebounders, including Liam Robbins, their 7-foot center and best rebounder, who has missed the last two games and is out for at least a month.
  • That depth is going to be a particular issue going against the team ranked 1st nationally in offensive rebounding and who is also 1st in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate.

Pick published: Jan 24 9:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 647

NCAAB Spread

Binghamton +2.5 -115

Lost: 57-78

Binghamton at Maine

Sun Jan 22 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Binghamton wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean and also a pick based on the relative momentum and player participation factors.
  • Binghamton has an average rating of -15.9 in the eight games that guard/forward Armon Harried did not start (six missed with injury), and -3.2 in the ten games with him starting.
  • Binghamton is on a four-game win streak after a 4-10 start, and is 6-1 ATS since Harried returned to starting lineup.
  • Maine has lost eight straight, and the interior defense has been sliding, as they are down to 10th-worst nationally in 2-point percentage defense, and the last eight opponents have all finished with an effective FG percentage of 53% or better.

Pick published: Jan 22 10:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306621

NCAAB Spread

Merrimack -2.5 -110

Won: 63-55

Merrimack at St. Francis (BKN)

Sun Jan 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack wins by more than 2 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • Our "momentum" measure shows these two teams going in opposite directions, and player participation and injury news is a factor.
  • Merrimack had missing starters in their first eight games and averaged a -15.7 Game Score to start the year.
  • With the current lineup over the last 12 games, they have an average Game Score of -8.7, a 7-point improvement.
  • In Northeast Conference play, Merrimack is No. 1 in overall defense and leads the league in opponent shooting percentage, steals, and turnovers forced.
  • St. Francis (Brooklyn-NY) has been without at least one starter in six of the last eight, and starting PG Rob Higgins has missed the last four games, and the team has been about 10 points worse over the last eight compared to rest of year.
  • St. Francis is dead last in offensive efficency in conference play, and shooting and turnovers have been an issue of late.

Pick published: Jan 22 9:48am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306615

NCAAB Spread

Baylor -2.0 -110

Push: 62-60

Baylor at Oklahoma

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on recent team participation news and trends.
  • Baylor went through a December and early January stretch where guards Adam Flagler and L.J. Cryer missed a combined five games to injury, and they started the Big 12 conference season with three straight losses (to Iowa State, TCU, and Kansas State).
  • Baylor is a guard-oriented team, and they are much better when Flagler and Cryer are both available along with freshman star Keyontae George, and in the last three games they have returned to form and put up three straight excellent performances. 
  • That includes going to Texas Tech this week and putting up a 1.40 points per possession against a good defensive team, and turning the ball over only three times. 
  • George is emerging and playing even better with the full backcourt, as he has averaged 23 points per game in the last five, and has cut down on turnovers with both Flagler and Cryer also playing.

Pick published: Jan 21 11:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 721

NCAAB Spread

St. Bonaventure -1.5 -108

Lost: 55-67

St. Bonaventure at Loyola-Chicago

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: St. Bonaventure to win by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick (though it is a model lean) but instead is a play based on team trends and news.
  • This is not the Loyola-Chicago team of recent vintage, as the Ramblers did okay and made the NCAA Tournament in head coach Drew Valentine's first year last season, but have gone into tank mode this year and the team is not trending in the right direction with one of the youngest coaches in college basketball.
  • Loyola is 3-15 ATS this year, and has failed to cover in eight straight, with five of the last six non-covers coming by double digits.
  • The Ramblers have allowed 76 or more points in seven straight games, a far cry from the defensive numbers of recent teams.
  • Saint Thomas, a starter at the beginning of the year, has left the program and not played in the last four games.
  • Senior starter Marquise Kennedy didn't start last game because of what was claimed to be a knee injury, but weirdly came in for 3 minutes in the second half of a 17-point loss, and his status is unknown going forward.

Pick published: Jan 21 10:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 703

NCAAB Spread

Utah Tech -2.0 -105

Won: 89-76

New Mexico St. at Utah Tech

Sat Jan 21 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah Tech wins the game by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday.
  • New Mexico State has the lowest average rating in our "momentum" measure among teams playing on Saturday, as the team has been in free fall mode over the last month. New Mexico State averaged a +6.3 Game Score in the first 10 games but is at -7.4 over the last nine.
  • The Aggies are in the first year with new coach Greg Heiar, after Chris Jans went to Mississippi State, and have had the truly unique situation with the shooting involving freshman Mike Peake, and the aftermath that came out in December that could be a factor affecting the team.
  • New Mexico State is coming off allowing 111 points in their last game, and in conference play are dead last in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to make 58% of two-point attempts.

Pick published: Jan 21 10:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 808

NCAAB Spread

Florida International -4.0 -115

Won: 77-72

Florida International at Texas-San Antonio

Sat Jan 21 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game by more than 4 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • In addition, Texas-San Antonio's best player and point guard, Japhet Medor, coming off a 30-point performance last weekend, was in a walking boot and missed the last game against Florida Atlantic mid-week, and is unlikely to play Saturday.
  • The final score (losing by 19) was not indicative of the performance as UTSA trailed by 16 at half and FAU only played their starters an average of 20 minutes each.
  • FIU is 5-2 ATS since 12/25 while UTSA is 1-5-2.
  • UTSA is easily the worst defensive opponent that FIU has faced since early in the season, and the only bottom-tier team in terms of turnover rate forced since a 33-point win over Stony Brook in November.
     

Pick published: Jan 21 9:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 697

NCAAB Over/Under

Hartford at Morgan St. Under 135.5 -105

Lost: 176 points

Wed Jan 18 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Hartford and Morgan State combine for fewer than 136 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Hartford's last three games have gone Over but they are 6-10 on Over for the year, and opponent's have made 46% of three-pointers in the last three games. 
  • Morgan State's weakness is defensive rebounding but that's not an area that Hartford is likely to exploit, as they rank poorly in offensive rebound, and Morgan State has allowed only 60 points per game against the two worst offensive rebounding teams they faced this year, including 54 vs. Hartford in earlier meeting.

Pick published: Jan 18 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306684

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -3.5 -115

Lost: 54-52

Florida at Texas A&M

Wed Jan 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Texas A&M is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games, including a 1-4 win at Florida, and that run has been driven by better defensive rebounding and two-point shooting efficiency compared to full season.
  • Florida is 2-7 SU and ATS against top 100 defensive efficiency teams including the earlier loss to the Aggies, and relatively struggles against teams that force steals and turnovers like Texas A&M.

Pick published: Jan 18 9:51am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 686

NCAAB Over/Under

Cleveland St. at Purdue Fort Wayne Over 137.5 -110

Lost: 132 points

Mon Jan 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland State and Purdue Fort Wayne combine for more than 137 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play on Monday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams rank in the top 35 in opponent three-point shooting percentage so far this year, at under 30%.
  • Purdue-Fort Wayne is 315th in two-point defense percentage for the year, and has been even worse at 59% allowed in the last three games.
  • Cleveland State is 301st for the year in three-point shooting but has been better of late, at 37% over the last six games.

Pick published: Jan 16 10:05am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 887

NCAAB Spread

Purdue -3.5 -110

Lost: 64-63

Purdue at Michigan St.

Mon Jan 16 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Purdue wins the game by more than 3 points on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable spread picks for Monday in CBB.
  • Michigan State forward Malik Hall suffered another ankle/foot injury in the second half of the loss at Illinois on Friday, and his status is up in the air for this game, and he is important to Michigan State's defense, especially going against a team like Purdue.
  • Purdue is No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate, and going against top 100 defensive rebounding teams like Michigan State, they are 3-0 ATS (Duke, Gonzaga, and Penn State).

Pick published: Jan 16 9:42am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 863

NCAAB Spread

North Dakota St. -2.5 -110

Won: 78-65

North Dakota St. at Nebraska Omaha

Sat Jan 14 • 1:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a play based on recent team trends.
  • We just had North Dakota State as a mid-week pick as well, so we will re-post some of the same notes.
  • North Dakota State rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily.
  • North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game last week against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play. Forward Grant Nelson has also emerged as a all-conference player.
  • North Dakota State has been rebounding and defending well of late, and are coming off their most efficient offensive game of the year.

Pick published: Jan 14 12:32pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 629

NCAAB Spread

Austin Peay +7.5 -110

Lost: 72-86

Austin Peay at Lipscomb

Sat Jan 14 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Austin Peay wins the game or loses by fewer than 8 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Austin Peay and Lipscomb are playing a Thursday-Saturday back-to-back, and Lipscomb just won by 22 points as a 1-point dog at Austin Peay on Thursday.
  • That game was the second-worst game for Austin Peay all year (adjusting for opponent) and the best game for Lipscomb all year.
  • Two years ago, D1 teams scheduled a lot of back-to-backs (played within 2 days of each other) because of COVID, and when we researched it, there was some value on going against the team that covered the first matchup, especially in games where the first result was further from the spread.

Pick published: Jan 14 12:16pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306631

NCAAB Spread

Missouri +5.5 -110

Lost: 64-73

Missouri at Florida

Sat Jan 14 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on matchup factors.
  • Florida has performed worse against high-pressure turnover defenses, going 0-4 ATS against teams in the top 75 in defensive turnover rate, failing to cover by an average of 17 points. Missouri is 4th in the nation in turnover rate on defense, the highest-ranked team in that category that Missouri has faced.
  • Missouri's weakness on defense is rebounding, including going against one of the best in the country in Texas A&M mid-week in a 14-point loss, but Florida is 296th in offensive rebound rate, and is dead last in the SEC in that category.
  • Missouri has actually done well against teams that have a high block rate and shot blockers, going 6-2 ATS against top 100 teams in that category, and Florida is 16th in that category nationally.

Pick published: Jan 14 11:20am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 679

NCAAB Spread

Stanford +2.5 -115

Lost: 69-86

Stanford at Washington

Thu Jan 12 • 11:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model play for Thursday in CBB and one of the highest-rated plays all season.
  • Stanford is coming off their worst performance of the year (22-point loss to Cal), but one that was driven by extreme three-point performance. Stanford was 64% on two-point attempts, but Cal hit 16-of-22 on three-point shots and were +27 on points from beyond the arc.
  • Among the other model factors are Washington's low three-point shooting percentage for the year and in recent games, Stanford opponent's getting a low percentage of points from two in recent games, and Washington opponents getting a high rate of offensive boards in recent games.

Pick published: Jan 12 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 851

NCAAB Spread

North Dakota St. +1.0 -110

Won: 90-70

North Dakota St. at Denver

Thu Jan 12 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota State wins the game on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model plays for CBB on Thursday.
  • The line at DK is also a bit off-market, as most books have North Dakota State as the 1-point favorite now (this pick is still playable at -1/-1.5/-2).
  • North Dakota State also rates highly in our "momentum" measure looking at recent game performances more heavily, while Denver rates poorly.
  • North Dakota State is one of the 10 least-experienced D1 schools this year, but young players have been emerging, including freshman point guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas having his best game in the last game against South Dakota, and sophomore center/forward Andrew Morgan having two of his best games recently, and leading the Summit League in offensive rebound rate in conference play.
  • Some other model factors include North Dakota's State's excellent defensive efficiency in the last three games, Denver's reliance on offensive rebounding in recent games (and North Dakota State being easily the best defensive rebounding team they have faced) and Denver's high shooting percentage relative to their other offensive efficiency measures (rank poorly in turnovers and rebounding relative to shooting).

Pick published: Jan 12 11:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 823

NCAAB Spread

Texas A&M -4.5 -105

Won: 82-64

Missouri at Texas A&M

Wed Jan 11 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas A&M wins the game by more than 4 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model picks for Wednesday in CBB.
  • It's also a play based on the matchup strengths and weaknesses in this game.
  • Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate in Division 1, while Missouri ranks in the bottom 10 in defensive rebounding, and it's their biggest flaw defensively.
  • Three of Texas A&M's four worst spread performances were in the three games against the best defensive rebounding teams they have faced, while they are 4-1 ATS against opponents ranking outside the Top 250 in defensive rebounding.

Pick published: Jan 11 8:24am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 736

NCAAB Spread

Vermont +1.5 -106

Lost: 65-80

Vermont at Massachusetts Lowell

Wed Jan 11 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Vermont wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Wednesday.
  • Our momentum measure also shows that Vermont is playing much better lately and UMass-Lowell has struggled in recent games.
  • UMass-Lowell started the year 8-1 ATS but is 0-5-1 ATS over the last six games, and have been 16 points worse in the last six games compared to the first nine.
  • Vermont has been six points better in their last six games, with the current lineup, compared to the earlier games.
  • Vermont's shooting and offensive efficiency has been higher in the games with the current starting lineup.

Pick published: Jan 11 7:41am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306507

NCAAB Over/Under

Auburn at Mississippi Over 133.0 -110

Won: 155 points

Tue Jan 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Auburn and Mississippi combine for more than 133 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable over/under model pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • Recent shooting trends provide regression potential, such as Auburn opponents shooting only 22% from three in recent games. 
  • Both teams rate poorly in outside shooting, and those numbers also provide some positive regression potential as both are 25% or under to start conference play from beyond the arc.
  • Both teams are good offensive rebounding teams and rate worse on the defensive rebounding end.

Pick published: Jan 10 3:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 647

NCAAB Over/Under

Air Force at Colorado St. Under 133.5 -115

Lost: 159 points

Tue Jan 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Air Force and Colorado State combine for fewer than 134 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model over/under pick for Tuesday in CBB, and our highest-rated play currently for the entire season.
  • Some of the factors our model is identifying include recent high shooting percentages both from the field and free throw line by Colorado State opponents, Air Force hitting a high rate of threes (39%) in the last seven games versus full season rates, and low possessions per game in Colorado State games.

Pick published: Jan 10 3:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 642

NCAAB Moneyline

Oklahoma St. To Win +145

Lost: 46-56

Texas at Oklahoma St.

Sat Jan 7 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
  • Further, Texas just fired head coach Chris Beard after he was suspended a month ago. Texas' average rating with Beard before suspension was +21.4, and since the suspension is +12.0, a nine-point dropoff in average performance.
  • Texas' defensive numbers have been worse since Beard's suspension, while they are also playing the best defensive team they have faced this year by defensive efficiency metrics.

Pick published: Jan 7 11:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 614

NCAAB Over/Under

Georgetown at Marquette Under 156.0 -110

Lost: 168 points

Sat Jan 7 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown and Marquette combine for fewer than 156 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model Over/Under play for Saturday in CBB.
  • Georgetown has allowed 43% shooting from three-point range over the last three games (while still going Under in two of them) compared to 36% for the full year.
  • While Marquette is far more offensively-skewed and has relatively below average defensive metrics for a top team, the Georgetown Hoyas are a poor shooting team less likely to take advantage. Georgetown has averaged only 29% from three and five made three-pointers over the last seven.
  • Georgetown's second half point margins are poor, which also creates some Under leans as they are less likely to push the scoring environment in a close game late.

 

 

Pick published: Jan 7 10:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 660

NCAAB Spread

Furman -7.5 -110

Won: 70-56

Furman at East Tennessee St.

Sat Jan 7 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman wins by more than 7 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our highest-rated playable model spread pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Furman leads the nation in two-point shooting % (61%) and has been at 60% or higher in eight of the last nine games.
  • East Tennessee State ranks 297th in defensive two-point percentage.
  • East Tennessee State will also likely be without starting forward Josh Taylor and reserve forward Brock Jancek due to injury, the two players with the highest effective field goal percentage for the team this year.
  • Taylor is also has the highest shot block rate for ETSU, and his loss could be even bigger against a great shooting team like Furman.

Pick published: Jan 7 10:17am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 701

NCAAB Spread

Eastern Washington -6.5 -108

Won: 92-80

Portland St. at Eastern Washington

Thu Jan 5 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Washington wins the game by more than 6 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but is a staff pick based on team trends and matchup factors.
  • Eastern Washington is playing much better in recent games than their season average, ranking highly in our momentum factor.
  • With the current starting lineup (6 games) they are +9.6 points better than with all other lineups, and 6-0 ATS. Eastern Washington is 8-1 ATS in last nine games after an 0-5 ATS start to year.
  • The primary stat improvements with the current lineup are better shooting, and they have won the rebounding edge against all recent opponents except power conference school Texas Tech.
  • Opponent Portland State ranks poorly in rebounding efficiency on both offense and defense, giving the current Eastern Washington lineup a significant edge there.
  • Portland State's three worst opponent-adjusted games have come in their last five. 

Pick published: Jan 5 3:53pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 808

NCAAB Over/Under

Charlotte at Florida International Under 134.5 -110

Won: 122 points

Thu Jan 5 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charlotte and Florida International combine for fewer than 135 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Under play for Thursday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams have had short-term higher shooting percentages impact Overs, but are 5-6-3 and 5-6 against Overs for the full season.
  • Both teams have shot well on 2-point attempts this year, and even better in the last three games. 
  • Charlotte is a really good defensive team at stopping 2-point attempts, and Florida International is not a great outside shooting team.
  • Charlotte ranks near the top of D-1 in three-point shooting but near the bottom in three-point rate allowed, areas of regression, as they play at one of the slowest paces on offense.

Pick published: Jan 5 12:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 746

NCAAB Spread

Bradley -5.0 -105

Lost: 58-67

Bradley at Murray St.

Wed Jan 4 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins by more than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Bradley is also a team that is playing much better since getting first team preseason all-conference center Rienk Mast returned from a knee injury, going 6-3 ATS over the last nine games with him, and having an average Game Score 14 points better with him than without.

Pick published: Jan 4 3:16pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 703

NCAAB Spread

Loyola-Chicago +4.5 -110

Lost: 57-80

Loyola-Chicago at Davidson

Wed Jan 4 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Loyola-Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable spread pick in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Loyola-Chicago started the year 0-6 ATS, but has played relatively better since switching their starting lineup after five games, and have been much better at not turning the ball over after that start.
  • Davidson has four of their five worst offensive efficiency games in the last four games.
  • Davidson is one of the worst defensive teams at blocking shots while Loyola-Chicago rates highly at scoring in the paint and hitting a high percentage of two-point shots (58%).

Pick published: Jan 4 11:10am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 669

NCAAB Moneyline

New Orleans To Win -115

Lost: 96-101

New Orleans at Houston Christian

Fri Dec 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated playable moneyline pick in college basketball, and so far this year, games with this rated edge are +3.5 units (21 games).
  • New Orleans and Houston Christian are the two worst teams in the country at defending 2-point shots, but Houston Christian (68%) is by far worst (compared to 62% for New Orleans) and that poor interior defense is one factor in this game.
  • New Orleans opponents have also shot 50% or more from three in two of the last three games, the two highest shooting performances against all year, in an area of positive regression potential.
  • New Orleans does not rely on a high volume of outside shots, and this will be by far the easiest opponent they have faced in terms of getting quality shots inside.

Pick published: Dec 30 7:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306591

NCAAB Over/Under

Chattanooga at The Citadel Under 146.5 -105

Won: 144 points

Thu Dec 29 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chattanooga and The Citadel combine for fewer than 147 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Thursday in CBB.
  • Both of these teams are on shorter term Over streaks thanks to some regression factors that could provide value.
  • Chattanooga is shooting 39% from three this year, and their last seven opponents have shot 38% from three.
  • Chattanooga games have involved a high rate of free throws, and Citadel opponents have also shot a lot of free throws in recent games. 
  • Chattanooga's most recent three opponents have also shot 82% from the free throw line when they have gotten there.

Pick published: Dec 29 11:57am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 690

NCAAB Spread

Illinois St. +1.0 -110

Lost: 51-55

Illinois St. at Illinois-Chicago

Wed Dec 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Illinois State wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model spread picks in CBB on Wednesday.
  • Illinois State started the year 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in head coach Ryan Pedon's first season, but have played better lately, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over the last six games.
  • The offense has gotten more efficient, as they were among the worst at turning the ball over, and this improved play hasn't been driven by extreme outside shooting luck (as they and opponents are both shooting 35% from three over that span).

Pick published: Dec 28 1:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 633

NCAAB Spread

Bradley -1.5 -105

Lost: 60-63

Bradley at Belmont

Wed Dec 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bradley wins the game by more than 1 point on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) Roster analysis.
  • Bradley was without first-team preseason all-conference center Rienk Mast for the first six games of the season.
  • Since his return, Bradley is about 14 points better after adjusting for opponent, and even with some regression, look like a much better team with him in the lineup.
  • They are 5-2 ATS since his return, with the average result +10.2 better than the spread in Bradley's favor.
  • This spread is directly on what we would expect based on the full season results, without accounting for any difference with and without Mast.
  • Bradley is also the best defensive team in the Missouri Valley, and is playing a Belmont team that ranks in the lower half of the nation in defensive efficiency stats. 

Pick published: Dec 28 1:31pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 631

NCAAB Over/Under

Villanova at Connecticut Under 136.5 -110

Lost: 140 points

Wed Dec 28 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Villanova and Connecticut combine for fewer than 137 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model Over/Under for Wednesday in CBB.
  • Villanova has won five straight after a 2-5, and a big change has been on the defensive end, where they have held the last five to 66 points or fewer, and have limited the last four opponents to under 50 percent effective field goal percentage.
  • Villanova relies on shooting a high rate of threes, but Connecticut is one of the best in the nation at both preventing three-point attempts and defending them, as the most they makes they have allowed in any game so far is six.
  • Connecticut is by far the strongest defensive team Villanova has faced, ranking near the top of the nation in overall defensive efficiency.
  • Villanova is really good at avoiding turnovers, and plays at the slowest pace of any UConn opponent this year, which should result in lowered number of possessions.

Pick published: Dec 28 1:01pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 612

NCAAB Spread

Iona -9.5 -110

Lost: 81-85

Iona vs. Southern Methodist

Thu Dec 22 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iona wins by more than 9 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in CBB on Thursday.
  • This game is in Hawaii as part of the Diamond Head Classic, and Iona got an early start on travel to Hawaii with a Dec. 18th game at New Mexico (coach by Rick Pitino's son Richard) and then traveling on.
  • Iona has been efficient on offense in recent games, and is one of the best in the nation at avoiding turnovers.
  • Iona also creates turnovers and plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, and is really good at limiting opponent three-point attempts.
  • SMU has struggled in Rob Lanier's first season in Dallas, particularly on offense, and is 2-7-1 ATS.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 861

NCAAB Spread

Chicago St. +12.5 -110

Won: 55-58

Chicago St. at Minnesota

Thu Dec 22 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago State wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for Thursday in CBB.
  • Chicago State has covered 8 of the last 12 after starting the year with two 20+ point losses, while Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS.
  • Since Chicago State went to the current lineup seven games ago, they have been about 7 points better in average Game Score compared to the previous games.
  • Chicago State covered two games ago against Southern Illinois despite going 5-for-27 inside the arc, and there is some positive regression potential in recent shooting.
  • Minnesota is a poor free throw shooting team (60%) something that could come into play late with a lead, and both these teams play at a below-average pace on offense, which should reduce possessions.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 839

NCAAB Over/Under

Jackson St. at Stephen F. Austin Under 145.5 -110

Lost: 149 points

Thu Dec 22 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jackson State and SFA combine for fewer than 146 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is tied for our top playable model Over/Under pick in CBB on Thursday.
  • Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 at opponent three-point shooting on the season (over 38%), while Stephen F. Austin is 10th in three-point shooting (40%), areas of negative regression potential to the Under.
  • Both teams also rate poorly at turnovers on offense, while SFA is one of the best at turnovers, and those rates have been higher in the last three games for both.
  • Interestingly, though, when Jackson State has played other teams that rank highly (top 100) in forcing turnovers, those games have gone Under 4 of 5 times, with Jackson State committing 24.4 turnovers on average.

Pick published: Dec 22 10:21am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306754

NCAAB Over/Under

Georgia Southern at Ball St. Under 136.5 -110

Won: 112 points

Wed Dec 21 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Southern and Ball State combine for fewer than 137 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Wednesday.
  • Ball State has shot 47% from three (40% overall on season) and opponents have shot 42% from three in the last two games, an area of regression potential and value.
  • Georgia Southern has been among the best in the country at avoiding blocks on offense, but they have also played a bunch of poor shot-blocking teams. All three other games against teams that rank in the Top 200 in block shot rate on defense went Under this year.
  • Ball State is a poor defensive rebounding team that gets offensive rebounds, but that is opposite for Georgia Southern, where they do not go for offensive rebounds at a high rate but control the defensive glass, factors that could neutralize each other.

Pick published: Dec 21 1:03pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 708

NCAAB Spread

Northeastern +9.5 -110

Won: 73-70

Northeastern at Davidson

Wed Dec 21 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northeastern wins the game or loses by fewer than 10 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable model spread picks on Wednesday in CBB.
  • Northeastern limits teams from shooting outside, and is decent at defending the paint, an area where Davidson relies on attacking.
  • Davidson does not have much rim protection, ranking near the bottom of D1 in blocked shots, and opponents blocking shots has been a problem for Northeastern in past games.
  • Davidson is also a poor rebounding team, an area where the underdog Northeastern team can have a relative advantage to generate some offense.

Pick published: Dec 21 12:48pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 671

NCAAB Spread

Arizona St. -3.0 -110

Lost: 60-97

Arizona St. at San Francisco

Wed Dec 21 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona State wins the game by more than 3 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick based on WOWY (With or Without You) analysis.
  • We made Arizona State a Staff Pick against SMU two weeks ago, based on how the current lineup is playing, and since then they have also won and covered against Creighton and San Diego.
  • Arizona State's first four games are still their worst four Game Score performances, and since they shuffled the lineup and the transfer-heavy roster has settled in, they have been playing like a Top 10 team.
  • The average Game Score over the last eight games is +18.9, which would equate to a Top 5 team over the full season. They are 7-1 ATS, covering half those games by more than 12 points.
  • Arizona State's defensive numbers are stellar, ranking near the top of Division 1 in overall effective field goal %, two-point %, and three-point % on defense.
  • San Francisco only has one starter back from last year's tournament team, and a new coach, and has been inconsistent, recently beating UNLV but then losing to Texas-Arlington in the last game. 

Pick published: Dec 21 12:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 741

NCAAB Spread

Pacific -12.5 -114

Lost: 74-65

Pacific at Lamar

Tue Dec 20 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pacific wins the game by more than 12 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for CBB on Tuesday.
  • It's also a play based on our WOWY (With or Without You) analysis of team lineup and roster trends.
  • Lamar has lost their last three games by a combined 86 points, failing to cover by double digits in all three.
  • Lamar has shuffled the lineup and three rotation players haven't played in the last three games, and the team was starting four freshmen in the last game.
  • Lamar is dead last in the nation in three-point shooting and bottom 10 in several offensive and defensive categories, as well as being in the bottom 10 in average height (and missing a 6'10 and 6'7 player in recent games).

Pick published: Dec 20 11:22am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306661

NCAAB Spread

Notre Dame -3.0 -110

Lost: 62-77

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Sun Dec 18 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Notre Dame wins the game by more than 3 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable spread pick for CBB on Sunday.
  • Notre Dame has underperformed so far, going only 2-8 ATS in a 7-3 start, with defensive efficiency numbers rating poorly.
  • They are still a highly efficient offense, and Georgia's opponents have shot poorly from three this year (26%) but Notre Dame is the best outside shooting team they have faced, and Georgia have played only one other top 100 team in three-point shooting (Bucknell) and one other top 50 offense in efficiency (UAB).
  • Georgia relies on getting on the offensive glass to generate points, but that is the one area that Notre Dame excels on the defensive end. Georgia has also not faced good defensive rebounding teams, and has not played another top 100 defensive rebound team since the first two games (0-2 ATS).

Pick published: Dec 18 11:42am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

NCAAB Over/Under

Rhode Island at Georgia St. Over 127.0 -110

Won: 141 points

Sun Dec 18 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rhode Island and Georgia State combine for more than 127 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under pick for CBB on Sunday.
  • There are several regression factors our models are picking up in this game.
  • Both teams rate very poorly in shooting (Georgia State is dead last in D1 in three-point percentage) and Georgia State's outside shooting has been only 19% over the last three games.
  • Both teams have had a high percentage of their shots blocked, but both have faced some pretty good shot-blocking defenses. Playing each other, both rank more middle of the pack.
  • Rhode Island opponents have also shot poorly from outside.
  • Rhode Island opponents have had a very low number of free throw attempts in the last three games, averaging less than 13 per game over that span.

Pick published: Dec 18 11:22am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 727

NCAAB Over/Under

Florida International at Florida Atlantic Under 152.5 -112

Won: 132 points

Sat Dec 17 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International and Florida Atlantic combine for fewer than 153 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Florida Atlantic has been really good at defending two-point attempts (44%) all season.
  • FIU relies on their interior scoring and FAU's defense can neutralize that in this matchup.
  • Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic have had a hot three-game stretch of shooting, hitting over half their three-pointers and over 60% from two, and some regression potential provides value even though they are a good offensive team.
  • Florida International has turned the ball over at a higher rate in their last three games, also providing some regression potential.

Pick published: Dec 17 10:08am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 624

NCAAB Spread

Eastern Illinois -2.5 -110

Won: 70-59

Eastern Illinois at IUPUI

Sat Dec 17 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Illinois wins by more than 2 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model spread pick in CBB on Saturday.
  • Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in all of Division 1, and neither has won a D1 game yet this year, but IUPUI is the worst team in our power ratings.
  • IUPUI is also worse at some key predictive indicators, allowing opponents to shoot a really high (60%) rate at two-point shots, being among the worst in D1 at turning the ball over, and shooting poorly from outside on offense.
  • Eastern Illinois doesn't do a lot well either, but they do rate highly in generating turnovers, an area where they should have a significant advantage in this matchup.
     

Pick published: Dec 17 9:54am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 607

NCAAB Spread

San Jose St. -1.5 -105

Lost: 58-59

San Jose St. at Pacific

Sat Dec 17 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Jose State wins the game by more than 1 point on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick on Saturday in CBB.
  • These are two teams trending in opposite directions, with San Jose State covering 5 of 7 while Pacific has gone 2-6 ATS after starting 3-0.
  • San Jose State's only two non-covers in the last 7 games have come against easily the best defensive teams they have faced (Arkansas and North Texas) and Pacific is the opposite of that, ranking outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency.
  • Among other factors our models are picking up are Pacific's low rate of forcing steals in recent games, San Jose State opponents hitting a high rate of threes, and San Jose State performing well on the boards in recent games.

Pick published: Dec 17 9:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 673

NCAAB Over/Under

Creighton at Marquette Under 153.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Fri Dec 16 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Creighton and Marquette combine for fewer than 154 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under model play for CBB on Friday.
  • Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner missed the last two games, last Saturday and Monday, with illness and both went Over. He should return tonight.
  • Creighton has lost five straight games, and over those five have attempted 47% of their FGA from behind the arc (vs. 40% in wins), so regression in outside shooting attempts, and going more to Kalkbrenner on his return, could impact scoring.
  • Marquette is 6-5 on the Over this year, but going against teams that rank in the top 30 in avoiding turnovers, they are only 1-3 on Overs.
  • Marquette likes to force steals and turnovers to create quick scoring chances, but 3 of the 4 slowest-paced games for them have come against those teams that are good at avoiding turnovers.

Pick published: Dec 16 11:47am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM.

Rot# 884

NCAAB Spread

Delaware +6.5 -110

Won: 76-69

Delaware at Princeton

Fri Dec 16 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Delaware wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick in CBB for Friday.
  • Delaware ranks near the top at avoiding turnovers, and has been even better in recent games.
  • Princeton, meanwhile, does not force turnovers, ranking in the bottom 20 in D1, so this is a game where the underdog Blue Hens should have a low turnover rate.
  • Princeton's last three opponents have shot poorly from three, hitting only 24 percent, providing some regression value there against Princeton.

Pick published: Dec 16 11:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 875

NCAAB Spread

Seton Hall -13.5 -115

Won: 66-49

Drexel at Seton Hall

Wed Dec 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seton Hall wins by more than 13 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model spread picks in CBB for Wednesday.
  • Seton Hall has been an inconsistent team, going 5-4 ATS with seven of the nine games finishing 10 or more points from the spread.
  • They have struggled against good shooting teams, as they are 0-4 ATS (with all failing to cover by 15+ points) against the four best outside shooting teams they have faced in Iowa, Kansas, Siena, and Oklahoma.
  • They are 5-0 ATS against everyone else, and blew out the most similar opponent to Drexel in style and quality, Wagner, by a score of 82-44 early in the year. Drexel is a slow-paced team that typically doesn't turn it over but only shoots 32% from three-point range.

Pick published: Dec 14 11:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 644

NCAAB Over/Under

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Minnesota Under 137.5 -105

Won: 128 points

Wed Dec 14 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Minnesota combine for under 138 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under in college basketball according to our models, with estimated 54.5% cover odds.
  • Both these teams have been Under more than Over this year (3-5 for AR-PB and 3-7 for MINN) though two recent games for Minnesota have gone over.
  • Outside shooting allowed has been a big factor, and Minnesota has allowed 47% in the last three games while AR-PB has allowed 42% in the last three D1 games, so we expect some regression there from short-term shooting against.
  • AR-PB has had a couple of hot outside shooting games (TCU, Nebraska) but rate as one of the worst shooting teams in D1, and have averaged under 56 points per game against Power 5 competition, going 1-4 on the Over in those games.
  • All four of Minnesota's games against mid-majors have gone Under so far this year.

Pick published: Dec 14 11:37am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306616

NCAAB Spread

Chicago St. +12.5 -110

Won: 65-66

Chicago St. at Murray St.

Tue Dec 13 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago State wins the game or loses by fewer than 13 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
  • Chicago State has played better in recent games after a lineup shift, and had one of the best wins in recent program history, for what has been a struggling program over the last several years, when they beat Southern Indiana by 17 as a 6-point underdog on December 4th.
  • Chicago State has covered 6 of the last 9 games, also including comfortable covers at Marquette and Marshall.
  • Murray State has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 games, despite opponents only shooting 29% from three-point range over that span.

Pick published: Dec 13 10:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 611

NCAAB Over/Under

Georgia Tech at North Carolina Over 143.5 -110

Lost: 134 points

Sat Dec 10 • 3:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech and North Carolina combine for more than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model Over/Under pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Georgia Tech is 2-6 on Overs so far, but the Overs have been in the last two games by a combined 38.5 points, while the two biggest Unders were in their first two D1 games.
  • There is also a lineup explanation for that, as Georgia Tech shifted their starting lineup four games ago, with Miles Kelly, Jalon Moore and Ja'Von Franklin starting each of the last four games.
  • Georgia Tech's four best offensive efficiency games have come in the last four, and it's not attributable to hot outside shooting, but rather increased offensive rebounding and interior shooting.
  • North Carolina has lost four straight games, and has shot only 23% from three-point range in those games (which were 2-2 Over/Under) so that's a potential positive regression factor for the Tar Heels.

Pick published: Dec 10 10:18am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 655

NCAAB Spread

Georgetown +8.5 -110

Lost: 64-83

Georgetown at Syracuse

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgetown wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Saturday in CBB.
  • Syracuse is 4-5 ATS, and those results are correlated with how good their opponents are or are not at offensive rebounding, going against the Syracuse zone. They are 3-0 ATS against teams in the bottom 50 of D1 at offensive rebounding rates, and 1-5 against everyone else.
  • Georgetown ranks 97th in offensive rebounding, and has a big front line that can get on the glass and block shots against the Orangemen.

Pick published: Dec 10 10:01am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 613

NCAAB Spread

Yale +15.5 -105

Won: 59-69

Yale at Kentucky

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale wins the game or loses by fewer than 16 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a lean to Yale but not a playable Ensemble Forecast model pick, but our predictive rating model shows value on Yale.
  • Yale is 6-2 ATS and has averaged covering the spread by 10 points this season. 
  • The two non-covers have been in the last two games, but can be entirely explained by three-point rates, as Yale has shot 28% and opponents 53% in the last two games from deep, and they did not miss covering by much.
  • So we see some value still that Yale could be better than expected and is providing some value.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 607

NCAAB Spread

Oklahoma +4.5 -115

Lost: 78-88

Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

Sat Dec 10 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not rated as a model playable pick but is a staff pick based on player news.
  • Arkansas' most athletic big man Trevon Brazile, who had scored 20+ points in two of their previous three games, tore his ACL in the first half of the last game against UNC-Greensboro and is now out for the season.
  • Oklahoma's Tanner Groves is one of the best interior scorers in basketball, and we are playing on the potential impact of the loss of Brazile in defending and shot blocking.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:30am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 610

NCAAB Spread

Montana (Pick) -110

Won: 82-75

Montana at North Dakota St.

Sat Dec 10 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana wins the game on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick, and also a staff pick based on player trends.
  • Montana was a Staff Pick on Wednesday, and won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite. 
  • Montana had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss 3 games with the flu.
  • This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
  • Given how much better Montana played with a fully healthy lineup on Wednesday, there is some value that Montana could be better than their average rating.
  • North Dakota State is 2-8 with only one win against a D1 school, and starting center Grant Nelson has missd two games and is likely to miss this one as well recovering from an ankle injury.

Pick published: Dec 10 9:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 719

NCAAB Spread

Minnesota +4.5 -110

Lost: 75-90

Michigan at Minnesota

Thu Dec 8 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a Staff Pick based on player news and trends.
  • This spread is exactly where we would expect it to be based just on our overall season power rating for both teams, but injury news impacts the value here.
  • Michigan just lost starting PG Jaelin Llewellyn for the season to a knee injury. Michigan will likely be starting a freshman at point guard, and ranks in the bottom 25 in all of D1 in bench minutes so far, so the depth is a question.
  • Michigan hasn't played great, but one area they have excelled is not turning the ball over, where they rank 1st in the nation in turnover rate so far, something that could be impacted by losing their starting PG.
  • Minnesota, meanwhile, has played relatively better since forward Jamison Battle has returned from an early injury. Their average Game Score is +2.0 in four games with him, and were -5.9 in the first four games without him playing.

Pick published: Dec 8 12:08pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 882

NCAAB Spread

Iowa St. +4.0 -105

Lost: 56-75

Iowa St. at Iowa

Thu Dec 8 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points on Thursday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for college basketball on Thursday.
  • After covering the first four games, Iowa is 1-3 ATS in the last four, with the one cover by 0.5 point.
  • Iowa struggled in the two games against the best offensive rebounding teams they have played, TCU and Duke, and Iowa State is also a top 50 offensive rebounding team.
  • Iowa State already has quality wins over North Carolina, Villanova and St. John's. 
  • The Cyclones' one poor performance and loss came against UConn, an elite defensive team and rim protection team, which is not Iowa's profile.

Pick published: Dec 8 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 875

NCAAB Over/Under

Navy at West Virginia Under 134.5 -110

Lost: 149 points

Wed Dec 7 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Navy and West Virginia combine for fewer than 135 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under model play for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • Navy has gone Over in seven straight games, but we are playing against that streak for several reasons.
  • First, Navy is a slow-paced team, and the games have been getting Over at high offensive efficiency and shooting rates, as they are 8th nationally in 3-point % at 41%, and 16th in overall effective field goal rate.
  • Navy is making a major step up in defensive class in this game going against West Virginia, as they haven't played a single power conference team or top 150 team in defensive efficiency yet, and half the schedule has been against teams outside the top 300 in defensive stats. So they have been feasting on poor defenses.
  • West Virginia also has some regression potential in outside scoring, as they have hit 44% of three-pointers in the last three games (versus 34% in the first five, and 33% last season).

Pick published: Dec 7 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 306662

NCAAB Spread

Arizona St. -5.0 -110

Won: 75-57

Arizona St. at Southern Methodist

Wed Dec 7 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona State wins the game by more than 5 points on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • It is also a Staff Pick because of our WOWY (With or Without You) roster analysis and team trends.
  • Arizona State's three worst games of the year, by Game Score, were in the first three games, two of which were started by Marcus Bagley, who has since been suspended and has now stepped away from the team.
  • In the past six games with the mostly current lineup (point guard Frankie Collins missed the Colorado game), Arizona State is 5-1 ATS with wins over VCU, Michigan, Colorado, and Stanford, and with an average Game Score of +16.9 (for perspective, Kentucky's power rating this year is 17.1 and Duke is at 16.7). 
  • Arizona State has four transfers now starting, so we should be a little more willing to move off our prior and consider that the current lineup could be much better than expected.
  • SMU, meanwhile, is 1-6-1 ATS and coming off a loss at home to Jackson State.
  • SMU is in the first year under head coach Rob Lanier, and two of their three best Game Scores so far came in the first two games, so they are trending in the opposite direction so far.

 

Pick published: Dec 7 10:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 709

NCAAB Spread

Arkansas St. -2.0 -110

Lost: 67-72

Arkansas St. at Central Arkansas

Tue Dec 6 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arkansas State wins the game by more than 2 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The biggest difference between these two is on the defensive end, at defending shots inside the arc, as Arkansas State is 9th in the country, limiting opponents to 41% shooting from two-point range, while Central Arkansas is 242nd (52% allowed).

Pick published: Dec 6 10:57am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306637

NCAAB Spread

Montana -1.5 -105

Won: 81-56

South Dakota St. at Montana

Tue Dec 6 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana wins the game by more than 1 point on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a staff pick based on player news and trends.
  • Montana has had multiple key players miss time in recent weeks, including point guard Brandon Whitney miss 2 games with a foot injury, and shooting guard Aanen Moody miss the last 3 games with the flu.
  • This article also talks about how several players on the team have been impacted by the flu in recent weeks.
  • Overnight, this line has shifted from South Daklota St. being favored to now Montana, likely due to positive info on the health and status of Montana starters.

Pick published: Dec 6 10:26am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 642

NCAAB Over/Under

North Carolina at Virginia Tech Under 142.5 -105

Lost: 152 points

Sun Dec 4 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina and Virginia Tech combine for fewer than 143 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick in college basketball on Sunday.
  • Virginia Tech's last four games are 3-0-1 to the Under, while North Carolina has been Under in regulation in the last three games against top competition (one went Over due to overtime).
  • Both of these teams do not turn the ball over much on offense and do not force turnovers at a high rate, which should produce a higher rate of half-court offense possessions.
  • North Carolina has struggled shooting so far this year, but has generated a high rate of offense from the free throw line (24% of points). However, Virginia Tech is one of the best in the nation at defending without fouling, and only 8% of opponent points against VT are coming from the line. 
  • Virginia Tech is in the top 20 in shooting inside the arc, but North Carolina has a big front line that can limit success there.

Pick published: Dec 3 7:28pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 762

NCAAB Spread

Iowa St. -4.5 -110

Won: 71-60

St. John's at Iowa St.

Sun Dec 4 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State wins the game by more than 4 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our highest-rated spread model pick for Sunday.
  • St. John's (8-0) is traveling outside of NYC for first time this year.
  • Iowa State is coming off a tournament in Portland, OR where they beat Villanova and North Carolina before losing to UConn.
  • Iowa State's Osun Osunniyi (transfer from St. Bonaventure) is a good matchup going against St. John's center Joel Soriano, who has dominated opponents inside early in the year.
  • Iowa State tends to force opponents to shoot a high rate from outside, something St. John's has not done, or done as well, so far this year.
  • Iowa State is 2nd in the nation in defensive turnover rate, and is easily the best defensive team St. John's has faced so far this season.

Pick published: Dec 3 7:08pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 758

NCAAB Spread

Florida Atlantic -9.5 -110

Won: 101-73

Florida Atlantic at Eastern Michigan

Sun Dec 4 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida Atlantic wins the game by more than 9 points on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick.
  • Florida Atlantic has won and covered in five straight since a road loss at Ole Miss, including a win at Florida and four double-digit victories.
  • Eastern Michigan, after a close loss at Michigan earlier this year, lost five straight games before winning at Florida International on Wednesday, in a game where FIU went 1-15 from three and 11-24 from the FT line. 
  • This is a major mismatch in defensive efficiency, as Eastern Michigan is 360th in FG% allowed on two-point shots (61%) while Florida Atlantic is 19th (42%).

Pick published: Dec 3 6:44pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 755

NCAAB Spread

Yale -14.5 -110

Lost: 77-72

Yale at Stony Brook

Sat Dec 3 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Yale wins by more than 14 points on Saturday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • In addition, this Yale team has played much better than expected all year while Stony Brook has played worse, so it's possible these two teams were mispriced by preseason expectations.
  • Yale is a perfect 6-0 ATS and has covered two of the last three games by 28 or more points.
  • Yale has also posted a better Game Score in every single game than our preseason power rating for them, suggesting that this is not a fluke. 
  • Stony Brook is 1-5 ATS and has failed to cover the last two games against D1 opponents by more than 20 points, losing by 33 and 29 as a single-digit underdog in both.
  • Yale has three wins so far by 29 or more points, and Stony Brook is the lowest rated D1 opponent Yale has faced other than Mississippi Valley State (who they beat 80-51).

Pick published: Dec 2 6:59pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 691

NCAAB Spread

Texas Christian -6.5 -110

Won: 75-62

Providence at Texas Christian

Wed Nov 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: TCU wins the game by more than 6 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model plck, but is a staff pick based on player participation news and team trends.
  • TCU has had six different starting lineups because of suspension and injuries in six games, but has played better in their last three after a terrible start, with the last game being a double-digit win over Iowa.
  • TCU guard Damion Baugh was suspended by the NCAA for six games for signing with an agent, and Baugh, who led the team in assists a year ago, is eligible to play tonight for the first time this year.
  • Providence is 2-5 ATS so far this year, and our predictive rating model, despite TCU's early performance, has TCU as having value at this line, even before considering Baugh's impact on return.

Pick published: Nov 30 12:04pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 690

NCAAB Spread

Western Michigan +18.0 -115

Lost: 47-67

Western Michigan at Dayton

Wed Nov 30 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Western Michigan wins the game or loses by fewer than 18 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick with estimated 54.6% cover odds according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Dayton is coming off a rough Battle 4 Atlantis tournament appearance where they went 0-3.
  • Dayton also could be short-handed after a couple of injuries to starters, as point guard Kobe Elvis left the last loss to BYU with what looked like a knee injury and guard Malachi Smith suffered an ankle injury.

Pick published: Nov 30 11:15am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 649

NCAAB Over/Under

North Carolina at Indiana Under 145.5 -110

Won: 142 points

Wed Nov 30 • 9:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Carolina and Indiana combine for fewer than 146 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Ensemble Forecast model pick for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • North Carolina is 3-4 against Overs so far, and the last game against Alabama only went Over (and had 204 combined points) because it went to overtime (four total).
  • Indiana has an effective field goal percentage of 62% so far this year, and while they are good on offense, that is an area of regression opportunity.
  • Every Indiana opponent so far has ranked outside the top 150 in turnover rate (which can create easier scoring opportunities) while UNC is in the top 50 in avoiding turnovers.
  • Indiana is one of the slowest-paced defensive teams that UNC has faced (i.e., they force longer possessions), most similar to two other games that went Under, in terms of average possession length against.

Pick published: Nov 30 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 720

NCAAB Over/Under

Furman at Appalachian St. Under 142.5 -105

Won: 126 points

Tue Nov 29 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Appalachian State combine for fewer than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable Over/Under model picks for Tuesday.
  • Furman ranks in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage and bottom 20 in opponent effective field goal percentage, providing some regression potential for scoring even though they are an offensively-skewed team. The early returns are even more extreme than last year and the lineup is virtually similar.
  • The last three App State games have gone Over, but the two Unders this year have come against the two best defensive opponents, who rate more similarly overall to Furman (despite the opponent shooting rate, Furman rates better on defense because of defensive rebounding and turnovers).
  • Furman is the best shot blocking team that App State has faced this year.

Pick published: Nov 29 11:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 602

NCAAB Spread

Brown -4.5 -108

Won: 59-51

Brown at Central Conn. St.

Tue Nov 29 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brown wins the game by more than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Tuesday in college basketball.
  • Brown is 2-0 as a favorite ATS and 0-4 as an underdog, with their two covers coming against the two weakest teams on their schedule. Central Connecticut (0-7) is rated No. 347 in our power ratings and similar to Stony Brook among Brown's opponents to date.
  • Brown is next-to-last in FT% so far in Division 1 at 53%, an area of positive regression for scoring.
  • Brown is also in the bottom 30 in defensive field goal percentage allowed, and is undersized, but will have the size advantage in this game, and has played opponents who are much better at shooting than Central Connecticut.

Pick published: Nov 29 11:19am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306633

NCAAB Spread

Minnesota +11.5 -105

Won: 57-67

Minnesota at Virginia Tech

Mon Nov 28 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 12 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean to Minnesota but not a playable pick according to our models, but is a pick based on player participation and team trends.
  • Two of Minnesota's top 6 players, freshman guard Braeden Carrington and junior forward Jamison Battle (who led the team in minutes a year ago) were injured to start the year, and have both been in the lineup the last two games only.
  • Minnesota is currently bottom 20 in minutes continuity from last year because of that injury to Battle and the roster turnover, but should be better than they have played so far based on having a better lineup now.
  • Virginia Tech has failed to cover in five straight games, including winning by only 5 points as a 26-point favorite against Charleston Southern in their last game.
  • Minnesota's relative weaknesses so far have been turning the ball over on offense and defensive rebounding, but Virginia Tech does not play a high pressure defense or tend to attack the offensive glass, and plays at a slower tempo.

Pick published: Nov 28 12:55pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 801

NCAAB Over/Under

Bellarmine at UCLA Under 136.5 -110

Lost: 141 points

Sun Nov 27 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Bellarmine and UCLA combine for fewer than 137 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under on Sunday in college basketball with 58% estimated cover odds.
  • Bellarmine is in the bottom 10 in overall pace, and offensive pace so far this year, and going against UCLA's defense we expect this to be a low-paced game.
  • Bellarmine rates poorly at offensive rebounding, so they will likely not get easy second-chance points against UCLA.
  • One of Bellarmine's few strengths is they do not turn the ball over at a high rate.
  • Both Bellarmine and their opponents have shot 80% from the free throw line, another potential regression area that provides Under value.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 306602

NCAAB Over/Under

North Texas vs. San Jose St. Under 118.5 -110

Lost: 123 points

Fri Nov 25 • 5:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Texas and San Jose State combine for fewer than 119 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is the top playable Over/Under in college basketball for Friday according to our models.
  • North Texas is the second-slowest paced team in Division 1, and San Jose State is in the bottom 30.
  • North Texas games against St. Mary's and Fresno State have combined for 96 and 113 points, respectively.
  • North Texas is struggling at getting easy points in the paint, as they rank near the bottom in two-point attempts and dead last at two-point shooting percentage so far.
  • San Jose State ranks 3rd-slowest in offensive possession time.
  • San Jose State ranks 5th-best in two-point defense this year, and opponents have shot 83% from the FT line, a likely scoring regression candidate.

Pick published: Nov 25 11:16am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 892

NCAAB Spread

Tennessee -1.5 -110

Won: 64-50

Tennessee vs. Kansas

Fri Nov 25 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins by more than 1 point against Kansas.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model (52.6%) and our Predictive Power Ratings have Tennessee at 61.5%.
  • We were below market on Kansas to start the year, and they have dropped in our rankings down to No. 24 from No. 10, and are 1-5 ATS so far.
  • Tennessee had one bad loss against Colorado early in the year but have otherwise exceeded expectations or performed to expectations, and are No. 6 in our predictive ratings.

Pick published: Nov 25 10:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 899

NCAAB Over/Under

Coastal Carolina at Missouri Under 152.5 -112

Won: 140 points

Wed Nov 23 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Coastal Carolina and Missouri combine for fewer than 153 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under play for Wednesday.
  • Missouri is off to a solid start with new coach Dennis Gates, and are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, but that provides an area for some offensive regression, particularly since they have opened with an easy schedule and Coastal Carolina is ranked better than most of their previous opponents.
  • Coastal Carolina has played only one D1 game, but their opponent shot 50% from three in that game.

Pick published: Nov 23 10:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 700

NCAAB Spread

South Dakota -14.5 -108

Lost: 68-58

LIU vs. South Dakota

Tue Nov 22 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Dakota wins by more than 14 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but is a pick based on player participation and early team trends.
  • Long Island looks like one of the worst Division 1 teams this year, in coach Rod Strickland's first year in charge of the program.
  • LIU started at No. 301 in our preseason rankings but are already down to No. 336 and have lost thier first two D1 games by 37 to Marquette and 39 to Utah.
  • Starting point guard Tre Wood, the only returning starter for the program from last year's squad, missed the last game against Marquette for undisclosed reasons.
  • LIU ranks near the bottom of D1 in virtually every offensive and defensive category and without Wood are one of the least experienced teams, and bear no resemblance to last year's squad with a different coach that finished 16-14.

Pick published: Nov 22 9:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 648

NCAAB Spread

Kansas St. -11.5 -110

Won: 77-57

Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

Mon Nov 21 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas State wins by more than 11 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated spread picks for college basketball today.
  • Both of these teams have first-year head coaches taking over the programs (Jerome Tang at Kansas State and Archie Miller at Rhode Island) making us a little more willing to consider early returns versus prior expectations.
  • Kansas State was No. 76 in our preseason rating but is up to No. 63 after their 3-0 start, while Rhode Island was No. 153 in the preseason but is down to No. 205 after a rough 1-2 start.
  • Kansas State is second in the nation in turnovers forced, at nearly 33% of possessions, led by guard Markquis Nowell.
  • Turnovers have been a major negative factor for Rhode Island, as they are 331st in turnover rate after three games.
  • Rhode Island was without guard Jalen Carey in the last game because of injuries, and transfer guard Brayon Freeman sat as a coaching decision, and this URI team is very young, going against Kansas State's high pressure defense.

Pick published: Nov 21 11:05am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 778

NCAAB Over/Under

Texas Tech vs. Creighton Under 136.5 -105

Lost: 141 points

Mon Nov 21 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas Tech and Creighton combine for fewer than 137 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model Over/Unders for today in college basketball.
  • This game is part of the Maui Classic, played at the Lahaina Civic Center, where games are being played for the first time in three years. A review of past opening game totals shows no trend toward Overs or Unders that should impact this play based on the venue.
  • Texas Tech is again one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking highly in opponent field goal percentage and blocked shots, and they allowed 52.7 points iin their first 3 games.
  • Creighton is one of the top teams in the country at limiting opponent second-chance points thanks to center Ryan Kalkbrenner, and is also very good at not turning the ball over, factors that can impact easy scores.
  • Both teams rate highly in defending but not fouling, as opponents have shot very few free throws this year.

Pick published: Nov 21 10:49am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 792

NCAAB Over/Under

Penn St. vs. Colorado St. Under 135.5 -105

Won: 124 points

Sun Nov 20 • 6:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Penn State and Colorado combine for fewer than 136 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model Over/Under picks today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top twenty in effective field goal percentage right now, with values that would have placed hem 1st (Penn State) or 2nd (Colorado State) nationally last season.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top fifty in three point field goal percentage right now, with Penn State shooting a rate that that would have placed them 1st nationally last season.
  • These unsustainable hot shooting starts will lead score-based models to overrate the offenses.
  • We played the Under on both these teams' last games, with Penn State barely going under after another hot shooting start, and Colorad State going under by 18 points.

Pick published: Nov 20 11:44am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 702

NCAAB Over/Under

Colorado St. at Charleston Under 156.0 -110

Won: 138 points

Fri Nov 18 • 5:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State and Charleston combine for fewer than 156 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Under for Friday in college basketball.
  • Charleston is one of the faster-paced teams in D1 so far, explaining the higher total, but there are a few regression factors to play against in this game despite that pace.
  • Charleston has rebounded a high percentage of their own misses for put backs, something that Colorado State is relatively good at preventing.
  • Charleston ranks in the bottom 50 of Division 1 so far in two-point shooting percentage against.
  • Colorado State is 7th overall in effective field goal percentage on offense, another area of regression that could impact scoring.

Pick published: Nov 18 2:28pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 864

NCAAB Over/Under

Virginia vs. Baylor Under 131.0 -110

Lost: 165 points

Fri Nov 18 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Virginia and Baylor combine for fewer than 131 points.

Staff notes:

  • This game is being played on a neutral court in Las Vegas, Nevada.
  • This is our top-rated model play for today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rank near the top of Division 1 so far in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and this is a major step up in class for both in terms of opponent defense.
  • Virginia is the slowest-paced team in the country so far, consistent with their program history under Tony Bennett.
  • Virginia has hit 48% of three-point shots so far, an area of regression potential against Baylor.
  • Baylor is shooting 66% from two-point range so far, and has not faced teams with an interior presence, but goes against a Virginia team that ranks highly in blocked shots and defending the paint.

Pick published: Nov 18 2:04pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 883

NCAAB Over/Under

Furman vs. Penn St. Under 143.5 -110

Won: 141 points

Thu Nov 17 • 11:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Furman and Penn State combine for fewer than 144 points.

Staff notes:

  • These two teams play in the quarterfinal of the Charleston Classic today, in Charleston, South Carolina.
  • This is our top-rated playable Over/Under for today in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams rate in the top five in effective field goal percentage right now, after one Division 1 game for Furman and three for Penn State.
  • They also both play at below-average pace, with Penn State in the bottom 40 of all Division 1 teams, so any regression in their shooting provides value against this number.

Pick published: Nov 17 10:02am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 762

NCAAB Over/Under

Southern Indiana at Notre Dame Under 150.5 -110

Lost: 152 points

Wed Nov 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Indiana and Notre Dame combine for fewer than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated over/under play for Wednesday in college basketball.
  • Both of these teams are currently top 25 in effective field goal percentage early in the season, and while they are good shooting teams, are outperforming expectation and we expect regression.
  • Notre Dame is at 43% from three-point range so far while Southern Indiana, a new D1 team, is at 46%.
  • This is a pace contrast, as Southern Indiana is top 50 so far in pace and Notre Dame is bottom 50. Southern Indiana tends to push it and turns the ball over on offense (which creates scoring chances against them as well) but Notre Dame has historically ranked near the bottom of D1 in forcing turnovers, and playing at pace.

Pick published: Nov 16 10:40am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 694

NCAAB Over/Under

Gonzaga at Texas Over 143.5 -110

Won: 167 points

Wed Nov 16 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gonzaga and Texas combine for at least 144 points.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 16 10:16am ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 701

NCAAB Over/Under

Duke vs. Kansas Under 144.5 -110

Won: 133 points

Tue Nov 15 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duke and Kansas combine for fewer than 145 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable over/under pick on tonight's big matchup between Duke and Kansas.
  • Through the first two games in the Jon Scheyer era, Duke's defense ranks in the top 30 in opponent length of possession, indicating that opponents have to really work deeper into the shot clock to generate shots.
  • Duke has held the first two opponents to a combined 82 points, and the last Duke team to hold an opponent under 45 points (which they have now done twice) was in 2018.
  • Duke has great size along the front line and is dominating boards, with 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski, freshman Kyle Mitchell, and transfer Ryan Young.
  • Kansas also ranks highly in defensive efficiency through two games, and also is a good rebounding team, so these two could neutralize each other and make for fewer easy baskets.

Pick published: Nov 15 11:06am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 655

NCAAB Over/Under

Fairfield at Xavier Under 139.5 -110

Lost: 143 points

Tue Nov 15 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Fairfield and Xavier combine for fewer than 140 points on Tuesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is the highest rated Over/Under play of the day in college basketball and has 59.6% projected cover odds.
  • Xavier is shooting 46.4% from three-point range after two games, and is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage (62.9%) providng some regression potential and value on lower scoring.
  • Fairfield has allowed opponents to hit 41.3% from deep in their first two games, also a regression candidate.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:45am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 654

NCAAB Over/Under

Portland at Kent St. Under 151.0 -115

Won: 142 points

Mon Nov 14 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The teams combine to score fewer than 151 points.

Staff notes:

  • The is one of our top model over/under plays for Monday.
  • Both teams have had unsustainable hot three-point shooting to start the season, with Kent State connecting on 54% of their threes so far.
  • This will be the best opponent either team has faced this season, which could slow down the offenses.

Pick published: Nov 14 1:05am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 860

NCAAB Spread

Evansville +24.5 -110

Won: 65-83

Evansville at Saint Louis

Sat Nov 12 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Evansville beats Saint Louis, or loses by fewer than 26 points.

Staff notes:

  • Evansville is a model lean for Saturday.
  • Evansville +26 is also strongly favored by our predictive ratings, which have historically performed well very early in the season.
  • Our preseason ratings would have also strongly favored Evansville at this line, so the play isn't an overreaction to a single game result.
  • Both Evansville and Saint Louis covered by about 10 points in their first games. Both had about average luck in terms of 3PFG% and FT% for themselves and their opponents.
  • Evansville had a very disappointing season last year, finishing nearly 100 spots lower in our final rankings than in our preseason rankings. Their two highest usage players last season both graduated, and there was relatively high uncertainty about how good they'd be this year. With this backdrop, pulling an upset in game 1 matters relatively more than it would for other teams, and may indicate Evansville has high upside potential.

Pick published: Nov 12 2:48am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 757

NCAAB Spread

Albany +4.5 -110

Lost: 62-75

Albany at Siena

Sat Nov 12 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Albany beats Siena, or loses by fewer than 5 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread play for Saturday. Spread picks at this confidence level have covered 55% of the time over the past four seasons.
  • Our predictive ratings also give a slight edge to Albany at this line.
  • Siena benefited in their first game from their opponent, Holy Cross, shooting only 10/23 (44%) on free throws and 2/10 (20%) on three, while Siena shot 7/17 (41%) on threes. Aside from unsustainable shooting edges, Siena played our current 352nd ranked team basically even, in a home game.
  • In Albany's first game, they lost by only five points at our current 93rd ranked team, Towson, without much of a shooting luck edge. Their biggest edge was in rebounding, led by freshman Jonatahan Beagle's five offensive rebounds.

Pick published: Nov 11 9:40pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 306591

NCAAB Over/Under

Michigan St. vs. Gonzaga Under 142.5 -110

Won: 127 points

Fri Nov 11 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State and Gonzaga combine for fewer than 143 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model over/under pick for Friday.
  • In addtiion, this game is being played on an aircraft carrier in San Diego, CA.
  • While no games have been played on an aircraft carrier since 2012, the two men's games that were played went significantly under, by an average of 15.8 points compared to the closing totals.
  • Michigan St-UNC (2011) combined to go 6-of-32 from three, and Syracuse-San Diego State (2012) combined to go 2-of-22.
  • It's not unreasonable to think that a game played outdoors in unusual conditions could impact shooting sight lines and performance, and those poor shooting numbers in the past games is a real effect.
  • This game opened at 156, immediately dropped to 148 when it went live after-hours last night, and has continued to drop. 
  • Despite that big line movement, we think there is still some value here for this extreme one-off circumstance, as those past two carrier games came in 21 and 23 points under the Ken Pomeroy projections, and his projection for this one is 156 points.

Pick published: Nov 11 11:45am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 640

NCAAB Spread

Old Dominion -2.5 -110

Lost: 59-71

Old Dominion at Drexel

Fri Nov 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Old Dominion wins the game by more than 2 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Friday night in college basketball.
  • This line has already moved from PK at opening to 2.5 points.
  • Old Dominion won and covered their first game, a 19-point win over Maryland-Eastern Shore as an 11-point favorite.
  • ODU did that despite losing three-point scoring by -15 points, because they dominated in the paint and on the glass, nearly doubling up UMES in rebounds. 
  • This will be Drexel's season opener.
  • Drexel lost three of their top four players from a year ago, including four-time team MVP and three-time all-CAA point guard Camren Wynter, who transferred to Penn State for his fifth year of eligibility. 

Pick published: Nov 11 11:07am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Superbook.

Rot# 663

NCAAB Over/Under

Duquesne at Kentucky Under 143.5 -110

Won: 129 points

Fri Nov 11 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Duquesne and Kentucky combine for fewer than 144 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model over/under pick for Friday night in college basketball.
  • Both these teams won in blowouts on opening night, thanks to extreme shooting performances.
  • Duquesne had an effective field goal percentage of 72.9% in the opener against Montana, going 10-of-24 from three-point range and 28-of-35 inside the arc.
  • Duquesne was bottom 20 in effective field goal percentage last year, and completely turned over the starting roster with transfers and new starters, so some of the improvement could be real, but there's no way that reflects their true shooting ability against Kentucky.
  • Kentucky, meanwhile, shot 46% from three and 61% from two in its opener, also ranking in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage so far.

Pick published: Nov 11 9:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 676

NCAAB Spread

Xavier -17.5 -110

Won: 86-64

Montana at Xavier

Fri Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Xavier beats Montana by at least 18 points.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Nov 11 3:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars.

Rot# 694

NCAAB Spread

Northwestern -16.5 -110

Won: 63-46

Northern Illinois at Northwestern

Fri Nov 11 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Northwestern beats Northern Illinois by at least 17 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a predictive model lean for Friday.
  • Our predictive ratings also show value on Northwestern here. We already would have had a slight lean toward Northwestern at this line using our preseason ratings. Then Northwestern covered -23.5 against Chicago State comfortably, while Northern Illinois lost at home to Illinois-Springfield, a Division II team, widening the gap.
  • With Chris Collins as head coach, Northwestern is 28-16 (64%) against the spread as a double digit home favorite in non-conference games (i.e. in cupcake games). They're 8-2 ATS in cupcake games against in-state opponents.

Pick published: Nov 11 2:41am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 686

NCAAB Spread

North Dakota +30.5 -105

Lost: 61-96

North Dakota at Creighton

Thu Nov 10 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: North Dakota wins the game or loses by fewer than 31 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Thursday.
  • Our predictive ratings also show value on North Dakota here, as our ratings were already lower than the pulbic and the polls on Creighton, and then they won by only 12 in their opener against St. Thomas (as a 28-point favorite) in a game where they trailed with just over 10 minutes remaining.
  • North Dakota won outright at Incarnate Word by 8 points (as a 2-point favorite) in their opener.

Pick published: Nov 10 12:07pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 619

NCAAB Spread

Appalachian St. -5.0 -110

Push: 79-74

North Carolina Central at Appalachian St.

Thu Nov 10 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Appalachian State wins by more than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • Our predictive power ratingsl has this spread at 7.6 between the two teams on a neutral field, and adding in 3 points for home court, would expect Appalachian State by 10.6.
  • Appalachian State beat Division III Warren Wilson by 68 points on Monday, while North Carolina Central lost by 12 at Virginia as a 24-point dog.
  • NC Central shot better from 3 (42%) than from 2 (41%) in the game against Virginia, and were a poor 3-point shooting team a year ago (31%), so we expect a little regression in their outside shooting..

Pick published: Nov 10 11:13am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306642

NCAAB Spread

Massachusetts Lowell -8.0 -110

Won: 89-62

Massachusetts Lowell at Columbia

Thu Nov 10 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Massachusetts Lowell wins the game by more than 7 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated playable spread pick for Thursday, November 10.
  • Columbia is No. 357 in our predictive power ratings out of 363 teams.
  • Columbia lost the season opener 75-35 to Rutgers and is starting three freshmen in their lineup after finishing last year at 4-22.
  • UMass Lowell returns 4 of 5 starters, and the one new starter is Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, a transfer post player that previously played at Pitt/St. Bonaventure and gives them more size inside than last year.
  • Our predictive power ratings have UMass-Lowell at about 2.7 points better than last year based on the returning starters, and has them 13.3 points better than Columbia on a neutral court, and 10.3 points better on the road.
  • The line moved 1.5 points from a 6.5 point opening overnight.

Pick published: Nov 10 11:12am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306655

NCAAB Over/Under

IUPUI at Drake Under 132.0 -110

Won: 128 points

Wed Nov 9 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: IUPUI and Drake combine for fewer than 132 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model over/under play for tonight in college basketball.
  • IUPUI was one of the worst shooting teams in the country last season (bottom 50 in FT%, bottom 10 in 3PFG% and 2PFG%), and managed only 39 points in their first game, against Iowa State.
  • This is Drake's first game of the season, and their two highest usage offensive players from last season are on the injury report. Tucker DeVries is probable, and Roman Penn is questionable.
  • We're listing this play at Under 132, but also recommend it down to 131.

Pick published: Nov 9 2:31pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

Rot# 770

NCAAB Over/Under

Montana at Duquesne Under 135.5 -105

Lost: 154 points

Tue Nov 8 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Montana and Duquesne combine for fewer than 136 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model over/under play for tonight in college basketball.
  • Duquesne (39.8%) and Montana (37.5%) both ranked in the bottom 20 in all of Division 1 in opponent three-point percentage a year ago. 
  • So far this year, games involving a team that allowed 37.0% or higher three-ponters made a year ago have gone Under 10 times versus 7 Overs and 1 push. This is the only opening game involving two teams that meet that criteria. 

Pick published: Nov 8 4:28pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 756

NCAAB Spread

Milwaukee +27.0 -110

Lost: 53-84

Milwaukee at Purdue

Tue Nov 8 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Milwaukee beats Purdue or loses by fewer than 27 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the second day of college basketball.
  • Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
  • Our predictive rating model also sees some value on Milwaukee here, as our spread would be 20.1 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).
  • Milwaukee was terrible last year, but has a new coach and three transfers that are expected to play key roles. In addition, several players left the program that were among their most inefficient on offense last season. We expect the Panthers to be a bit better than last year.

Pick published: Nov 7 7:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 751

NBA Moneyline

Magic To Win +150

Won: 101-93

Magic at Pelicans

Mon Feb 27 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Orlando wins the game on Monday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
  • So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +29.1 units across 222 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.

Pick published: Feb 27 12:57pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 573

NCAAB Team Future

Bradley To Win Missouri Valley Regular Season Title +230

Won: Bradley finishes as #1 seed

2022-2023 NCAA Basketball Season

More info

How it wins: Bradley gets the No. 1 overall seed in the MVC at end of regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection gives Bradley a 47% chance to win the Missouri Valley Conference regular season.
  • Bradley is the highest-rated team from the MVC in our predictive power ratings at No. 80 overall, just ahead of the betting market favorite Drake, and Bradley has a one-game lead currently after a Drake loss in December to Indiana State.
  • Bradley also rates as the best defensive team in the conference by efficiency metrics.
  • Bradley also provides some additional value based on roster analysis, as preseason all-conference selection center Rienk Mast missed the first six games of the season with an MCL sprain. Since his return, Bradley has averaged a Game Score of +14.0, compared to the -0.1 Game Score in the six games without him. 

Pick published: Dec 27 3:56pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NBA Moneyline

Clippers To Win +120

Lost: 124-134

Clippers at Nuggets

Sun Feb 26 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Clippers win the game on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
  • So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
  • Denver's Aaron Gordon missed Saturday's game, an 18-point road loss at Memphis, and is unlikely to play in the back-to-back.

Pick published: Feb 26 9:33am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 565

NBA Moneyline

Suns To Win +136

Lost: 101-104

Suns at Bucks

Sun Feb 26 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Phoenix wins the game on Sunday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Sunday in the NBA.
  • So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.6 units across 219 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.
  • Kevin Durant is still out (and yet to make his debut for the Suns) while Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a knee injury in Friday night's game and is day-to-day.

Pick published: Feb 26 9:24am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 549

NBA Moneyline

Nets To Win +110

Lost: 87-131

Nets at Bulls

Fri Feb 24 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brooklyn wins the game on Friday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Friday in the NBA.
  • So far this year, playable moneyline picks are +30.3 units across 214 games, and model moneyline picks on slight underdogs (up to +175) have been historically profitable.

Pick published: Feb 24 11:40am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 531

NBA Moneyline

Mavericks To Win +160

Lost: 112-125

Mavericks at Celtics

Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas wins the game against Boston.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated model moneyline play in the NBA for Wednesday night.
  • We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
  • Jayson Tatum is questionable for tonight's game with a left ankle sprain as of the time we posted this pick (while Spencer Dinwiddie is questionable for Dallas).
  • Tatum being potentially out or limited with an ankle injury provides the potential for additional value at this line. 
  • Other factors our model is picking up includes recent Mavericks' opponents having a low assist-to-turnover margin, Boston's recent opponents scoring a higher amount of points inside the arc, Boston's relatively lower rebound numbers, and Dallas' defensive efficiency in recent games.

Pick published: Nov 23 11:05am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 511

NBA Moneyline

Nets To Win +120

Won: 112-98

Nets at Raptors

Wed Nov 23 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brooklyn wins the game against Toronto.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model moneyline play for Wednesday in the NBA. 
  • We have historically shown profitiablity with moneyline picks on slight NBA underdogs over the last several years.
  • Some of the factors that are favoring Brooklyn in this matchup include Toronto's low assist-to-turnover margin in the last seven games, and the fact that Toronto's last three opponent's have underperformed from three-point range (33%). 
  • Brooklyn is also playing better interior defense in recent games, as opponents have shot only 50% on unblocked two-point attempts, and they also lead opponents in blocks, 24 to 9, over the last three contests.

Pick published: Nov 23 10:46am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 507

NBA Moneyline

Bulls To Win +130

Lost: 110-124

Bulls at Pelicans

Wed Nov 16 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game on Wednesday.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick for the NBA tonight.
  • Zion Williamson is questionable for tonight, after missing last night's game with a foot contusion, and being questionable for that one until ruled out as well.
  • Chicago lost last week to New Orleans at home in a close 4-point game where they had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
  • One regression factor that our models are picking up is that the Bulls' opponents have had a high Free Throw to Field Goal Attemnpt ratio in the last three games, including the Pelicans having 18 more attempts than the Bulls in their recent matchup.

Pick published: Nov 16 10:59am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 567

NBA Moneyline

Hornets To Win +140

Lost: 95-105

Trail Blazers at Hornets

Wed Nov 9 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Charlotte Hornets win the game against Portland.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • Almost 15% of Portland's points this season have come on fastbreaks, the fifth most in the league. However, the Hornets have allowed the fewest fastbreak points in the league this season, and have held opponents to the fewest points per fastbreak.
  • This is the 4th game of a 6-game road trip for Portland. Charlotte is playing their third home game in a row.

Pick published: Nov 9 2:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, Caesars.

Rot# 534

NBA Moneyline

Clippers To Win +160

Won: 119-117

Cavaliers at Clippers

Mon Nov 7 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Clippers win the game against Cleveland.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • Recent Cavs games have featured a relatively high number of turnovers on both sides, and a high number of fastbreak points for Cleveland opponents. A sloppy game may favor the underdog.

Pick published: Nov 7 1:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 530

NBA Moneyline

Hawks To Win +155

Lost: 109-139

Hawks at Raptors

Mon Oct 31 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Atlanta wins the game on October 31.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our playable moneyline picks on NBA underdogs between +110 and +175.
  • Some of the factors driving our model pick including the Raptors' opponents having a high assist rate on made field goals, and Atlanta's opponents having a poor assist-to-turnover margin.
  • The Raptors recent performance in the second quarter, and overall through three quarters, has been below average, and reflective that the depth for the team has not been productive so far.

Pick published: Oct 31 8:51am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 559

NBA Moneyline

Lakers To Win +140

Won: 121-110

Nuggets at Lakers

Sun Oct 30 • 9:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Lakers win the game against Denver.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick. Our NBA moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • This is essentially a play based on poor early-season starts skewing perception of teams. Almost all teams go through slumps, but when they come at the start of the season, the public and market may overreact a bit.
  • Over the past decade, in October, home underdogs of 3-4 points coming off a loss are 11-4-1 ATS. That's a small sample, but it's not cherry-picked. We didn't play around with endpoints to improve the record, and simply went with the first definition we thought of to try to find similar past games in our NBA custom trends tool.
  • We are officially making this a pick at +140 because it's widely available. If you have a Caesars/William Hill account, it's available at +143 currently there.

Pick published: Oct 30 12:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet.

Rot# 552

NBA Moneyline

Nets To Win +130

Lost: 125-129

Mavericks at Nets

Thu Oct 27 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Brooklyn Nets win the game against Dallas.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • One factor our models are picking up on is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (40%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
  • In addition, Brooklyn's foul rate according to a few different measures has been unsustainably high. That includes both personal fouls and technical fouls. Over the long run they'll get a friendlier whistle.
  • Conversely, Dallas has drawn an abnormally high number of fouls on offense, and is likely to see regression in this area.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:17pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings.

Rot# 560

NBA Moneyline

Nets To Win +140

Lost: 99-110

Nets at Bucks

Wed Oct 26 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Brooklyn Nets win the game against Milwaukee.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick. Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • The Bucks are off to a 2-0 start, while Brooklyn has started 1-2 with two double-digit losses.
  • One factor our models are likely picking up is the high opponent three-point percentage against Brooklyn so far (44%) which can make an outsized impact on game results but is an area for regression potential.
  • Another factor is Milwaukee's relatively poor point differential in the second quarter in recent games, which can be indicative of bench depth if a star is more likley to sit for a bigger part of that quarter.
  • In this case, Milwaukee is still without Khris Middleton to start the year, and have a massive split in the +/- with and without Giannis Antetokounmpo playing. While they have overcome it so far, the Bucks' depth has not played well and they have been significantly outscored with Giannis out of the game.

Pick published: Oct 26 11:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 545

NBA Moneyline

Raptors To Win +140

Won: 98-90

Raptors at Heat

Mon Oct 24 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Toronto Raptors win the game against Miami on November 24th.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline NBA pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • This is a rematch of a game two days ago at the same location. The Heat won that game by three points, with their main edge coming in shot making (higher 2PFG%, 3PFG%, and FT%) and the Raptors' main edge coming in ball handling (lower non-steal TO% and steal TO%). Miami's advantage in turnovers is less reliant on variance than Miami's shotmaking advantage.
  • For the season, Toronto has been slightly worse than Miami in some fields that are regression candidates, like opponent 3PFG% and opponent FT%.
  • Toronto has turned the ball over via an opponent steal at the lowest rate in the league so far. They also led the NBA in this category last season, so it's likely not a fluke. Meanwhile, Miami's defense has the second fewest steals per game.

Pick published: Oct 24 1:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 519

NBA Moneyline

Raptors To Win +126

Lost: 105-109

Raptors at Nets

Fri Oct 21 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Toronto Raptors win the game against Brooklyn on October 21st.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline NBA pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Our moneyline picks on smaller NBA dogs (+110 to +175) have been profitable every year since the 2016-2017 season, and we will highlight some of these plays in Staff Picks when they arise.
  • Brooklyn is coming off a 22-point home loss to New Orleans in the season opener, while Toronto won against Cleveland in their first game.
  • Some of the factors that might contribute to value against Brooklyn in this game include the Nets' extremely poor rebounding rate in the opener, and the high volume of assisted baskets they surrendered (31 on 50 made field goals).

Pick published: Oct 21 2:24pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 539

NCAAB Spread

Fairleigh Dickinson +26.5 -110

Won: 82-88

Fairleigh Dickinson at Loyola-Chicago

Mon Nov 7 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Farleigh Dickinson wins the game or loses by fewer than 27 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the opening day of college basketball.
  • Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
  • Our predictive rating model also sees some value on Farleigh Dickinson here, as our spread would be 20.3 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).
  • Loyola-Chicago was one of the most experienced teams in Division 1 last year, but will be replacing 4 of 5 starters in this season opener. 

Pick published: Nov 7 9:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306559

NCAAB Spread

UL Monroe +21.5 -110

Lost: 54-87

UL Monroe at Texas A&M

Mon Nov 7 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Louisiana-Monroe wins the game or loses by fewer than 22 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the opening day of college basketball.
  • Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
  • Our predictive rating model also sees some value on UL-Monroe here, as our spread would be 16.6 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).

Pick published: Nov 7 9:33am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 677

NCAAB Spread

Merrimack +22.0 -110

Lost: 72-97

Merrimack at St. John's

Mon Nov 7 • 6:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: Merrimack wins the game or loses by fewer than 22 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick for the opening day of college basketball.
  • Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
  • Our predictive rating model also sees some value on Merrimack here, as our spread would be 15.7 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).

Pick published: Nov 7 9:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306509

NFL Team Prop

Chiefs to have the most sacks +100

Won: 2 sacks to 0

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City finishes with more sacks than Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • The Eagles are the slight favorite to have more sacks, because they led the NFL in sacks in the regular season with 70 (Kansas City also was near the top of the NFL, with 55).
  • However, sacks are also in large part a QB stat, and the Eagles also played a lot of quarterbacks who take sacks. In the 7 games against QBs with a sack rate of 6% or lower this season, the Eagles only averaged 2.4 sacks, and 4 of the 7 QBs were sacked 0 or 1 times.
  • Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts' sack rate (7.6%) is nearly double that of Mahomes (3.9%) this year, and the Chiefs' defense has performed well in terms of sacks against the more similar matchups to this one on the schedule, while the Eagles have not faced an offense similar to KC.
  • Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best in the NFL since his debut at avoiding sacks. In 93 career starts, Mahomes has only been sacked on 10% or more of his dropbacks in 5 of them.

Pick published: Feb 10 12:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards -110

Won: 70 rushing yards

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts rushes for more than 49 yards in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a prop play based on the spread and total and playing on the scenario that the Eagles could be in a closer game than they have been for most games this the year.
  • Jalen Hurts has carried the ball far more in close games, averaging over 15 attempts a game in those decided by one score, compared to 7.8 attempts in all other games. The only game where Hurts has had a low rushing attempt total in single digits in a close game was the season finale, his first game back from the shoulder injury.
  • Hurts was Philadelphia’s leading rusher in four of the seven one-score games he played in.
  • If you want a related longer shot play where we see value, you can get Hurts to be the leading rusher for the game at +275 at PointsBet, as detailed in our Super Bowl props article.
     

Pick published: Feb 10 12:10pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 interceptions thrown +115

Lost: 0 interceptions

Chiefs vs. Eagles

Sun Feb 12 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts throws an interception in the Super Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • Jalen Hurts has thrown only six interceptions all season, and has a low 1.3% interception rate.
  • However, in looking over past Super Bowl games, the interception rate for the quarterback entering the game has little relation to whether interceptions were thrown in the Super Bowl.
  • In fact, 80% of the quarterbacks in the last 20 years who had an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in the regular season threw a pick in the Super Bowl.
  • The last game without any interceptions thrown in the Super Bowl was all the way back in Rams vs. Titans in January of 2000.
  • Seventeen of the last 26 starting QBs in the Super Bowl have thrown a pick.
  • In a similarity analysis of teams most similar to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, nine of the ten QBs threw a pick, and it included a lot of rushing QBs and low volume passers in the regular season.

Pick published: Feb 10 12:05pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP +140

Won: voted MVP

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes is voted the AP NFL MVP at the end of the 2022 season.

Staff notes:

  • UPDATE: about an hour after we posted this pick, news broke that Jalen Hurts' status for next week is uncertain after a shoulder injury. That caused the market to get pulled temporarily, and it has re-opened at -300 to -350 for Mahomes depending on book. You can read our logic below on why we thought Mahomes should have been the favorite even before that news.
  • The NFL MVP race is most likely coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts with three games remaining.
  • A couple of years ago, we laid out a formula for predicting the NFL MVP based on the stat rankings, by looking at which categories were most correlated with the winner.
  • The six primary categories most correlated with MVP were, in order of importance/correlation: (1) Team Wins Rank (2) Total TDs Rank (Passing+Rushing/Receiving) (3) Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt Rank (4) Passer Rating Rank (5) Team Points Scored Rank (6) Pass TD Rate Rank.
  • The winner in those six categories by lowest weighted rank average has won the MVP each of the last 12 seasons, except for the one year a non-QB won the award (Adrian Peterson in 2012).
  • Plugging those in this year (and using our projected wins for that category), Mahomes comes in with a weighted rank score of 2.1, Hurts at 3.2, and Josh Allen in third at 4.0.
  • The Eagles do have more wins, but the Chiefs have slightly more points scored per game, and Mahomes leads in total TDs (38 to 35) and has the edge in all the other rate categories as well.
  • The market is starting to shift, and you can find a variety of prices, but we believe the market is currently off overall, where Hurts is more commonly the favorite. 
  • BetMGM has the best price right now, but this is playable to Mahomes having a slight edge (up to -140) before the Week 16 games, as he looks like the QB who should be the favorite right now pending the final three week results.

Pick published: Dec 19 3:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Christian McCaffrey Comeback Player of the Year +1600

Lost: 2nd, Geno Smith won

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Christian McCaffrey wins the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Staff notes:

  • Christian McCaffrey has played in only 10 combined games over the last two seasons after having numerous injuries, including two different ankle injuries, a shoulder injury, and muscle strains.
  • In the two seasons, prior to that, McCaffrey had over 4,300 total yards from scrimmage and scored 32 touchdowns.
  • McCaffrey, who is still only 26 years old, is a top five running back in the fantasy football average draft position market, and is top five in our projected stats for running backs as well.
  • For comparison on the value on McCaffrey, Derrick Henry (who missed half the season last year) has a similar ADP rank in fantasy football and similar overall projection in our rankings, but is +350 to win Comeback Player of the Year.
  • The price at FanDuel is also a bit off-market on McCaffrey and has him behind lots of players, as he is +800 at DraftKings.
  • This is a narrative award, and McCaffrey will have a good narrative if he stays healthy after two tough seasons, and just performs up to expectations. The quarterback with the shortest odds, Deshaun Watson, meanwhile, doesn't have a good narrative that is likely to embraced by voters (and still faces potential suspension). The odds are still long because another quarterback (Winston, Daniel Jones, Trubisky, Mariota) could surprise after either being injured or re-surfacing in a new role, but McCaffrey has better odds than this long shot number.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAB Spread

Florida A&M +29.0 -110

Lost: 45-80

Florida A&M at Oregon

Mon Nov 7 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida A&M wins the game or loses by fewer than 29 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the opening day of college basketball.
  • Going back to the 2016-17 season (and excluding 2020-21 since the start of season was delayed by COVID), big underdogs (15+ points) have shown well in the first game of the year, covering over 56% of the time.
  • Our predictive rating model also sees some value on Florida A&M here, as our spread would be 23.8 points before home court advantage added (and home court advantage is worth closer to 3 points on average).
  • Oregon also has a lot of injuries, with at least 4 players potentially out for the opener. That includes projected starting shooting guard Jermaine Couisnard, transfer from South Carolina who was their leading scorer last year, and possibly freshman center Kel'el Ware. While forward Quincy Guerrier has missed 10 days of practice recently but is expected to play.

Pick published: Nov 7 10:04am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 306601

NFL Spread

Chiefs +2.0 -110

Won: 23-20

Bengals at Chiefs

Sun Jan 29 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points in AFC Champ Game.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model play for the Conference Championship Round.
  • Kansas City opened as the favorite but the market moved to Cincinnati as the favorite on concern over Patrick Mahomes' ankle. That line peaked at -2.5 but has settled back.
  • As of right now, Patrick Mahomes is expected to play and be in a rare home dog role, and we'll take the points and discount based on the injury concerns.
  • Home underdogs in the Conference Champ Games since 2000 are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS. 

Pick published: Jan 25 12:44pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 324

NFL Custom Bet

AFC West Team To Win AFC +150

Won: KC wins 23-20 in AFC Champ

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: An AFC West team (the Chiefs or Chargers) wins the AFC Conference Championship.

Staff notes:

  • According to our automated predictions, there is a 41% chance that either Kansas City or the LA Chargers wins the AFC, above the 40% cutoff for positive value on this line.
  • In addition, the Chargers are likely better than their power rating based on past injuries and a points-to-yards profile that is underestimating them by looking at past point differential.
  • The Chargers also profile (with their pass-run distribution and pass profile) as the type of team capable of a run as a Wild Card.

Pick published: Jan 13 9:48am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Team Future

49ers to win NFC +200

Lost: 7-31 in NFC Champ game

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: San Francisco reaches the Super Bowl out of the NFC.

Staff notes:

  • San Francisco is currently the second-favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, behind Philadelphia, in the betting markets.
  • Our predictive power ratings have San Francisco rated as the top team in the NFC and second overall to Buffalo.
  • San Francisco finished the year ranked 1st in defensive yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.
  • Our similar playoff team analysis shows that teams with San Francisco's profile (point differential, yards on offense and defense, pass-run distribution) have performed very well, with 5 of the top 8 most similar playoff teams reaching the Super Bowl (2004 NE, 2010 PIT, 2017 PHI, 2019 SF, 2012 SF).

Pick published: Jan 10 4:11pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Spread

49ers -3.5 -110

Won: 19-12

Cowboys at 49ers

Sun Jan 22 • 6:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco wins the game by more than 3 points in the Divisional Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for the Divisional Round.
  • Both defenses are capable of creating turnovers, and Dallas' offense is certainly capable of putting up a really good performance. But this San Francisco team has been the more consistently dominant defense at stopping opponents (independent of turnovers), has been the more consistently dominant rushing team.
  • Dallas' relative weakness on defense is the rush defense, and San Francisco should have an advantage there and in the red zone with that advantage.

Pick published: Jan 22 10:06am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 318

NFL Spread

Ravens +9.0 -110

Won: 17-24

Ravens at Bengals

Sun Jan 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baltimore wins the game or loses by fewer than 9 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Wild Card round.
  • Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson remains out, but his absence is already accounted in the line at this point, while several key players that sat out last week's game, like TE Mark Andrews and RB J.K. Dobbins, will play in this one.
  • Since 2002, home favorites in the playoffs are 13-11 SU and 8-16 ATS when playing a division foe.
  • Some model angles showing up are the Bengals having a low rush TD percentage in the last seven games, and the Ravens rush defense doing will in the last seven games, things that could play into red zone performance.

Pick published: Jan 13 3:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 149

NFL Spread

Chargers -2.0 -110

Lost: 30-31

Chargers at Jaguars

Sat Jan 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Chargers win by more than 2 points in the Wild Card Round.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on our similar playoff teams and matchup analysis.
  • Jacksonville is a No. 4 seed out of the weakest division, had a much bettter points allowed (12th) than yards allowed (24th), and had a low preseason win expectation, and the most similar playoff teams to the Jaguars since 2003 underperformed both against the spread and straight up, averaging nearly 5 points worse than the spread.
  • The Charges had the opposite issue, ranking lower in points scored (13th) than yards gained (9th) and also dealing with several key offensive injuries that impacted regular season production. The Chargers' playoff comps averaged outperforming the spread by 4 points, and won and covered about 60% of the time in the first playoff game.
  • The Chargers ranked last in rush yards per carry allowed, but playoff teams that had allowed 4.8 yards per carry or higher in the regular season are 15-10 ATS in the playoffs in the last decade.

Pick published: Jan 11 2:56pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 143

NFL Team Future

Bills to get AFC No. 1 Seed -200

Lost: No. 2 seed

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Buffalo Bills finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC at the end of the regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for the Bills is 14.1 wins for the season, more than 3 wins higher than any team in the AFC other than Kansas City.
  • According to our simulations, the Bills have a 79.7% chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
  • Buffalo already has head-to-head wins over the two teams we have projected for the next-highest wins in the AFC, in Kansas City and Baltimore, and would get the No. 1 seed if they finished tied on record with either, effectively giving them a two-game lead over KC and three-game lead over Baltimore.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:48pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Leader +900

Won: 5250 yards, 1st in NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in passing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections for the rushing yards and receiving yards are directly in line with the offered odds in those categories, but we see value on Patrick Mahomes in the passing category, as he has the highest projected passing yards in our player projections, ahead of Derek Carr and Justin Herbert.
  • This line is also slightly off-market, as some other books have Mahomes closer to +800 and as a co-favorite in the category.
  • An analysis of the passing yards leaders over the last decade shows that 80% of them were in the top five in passing yards per game the previous season, so this is not a feat that tends to come out of nowhere (in fact, Mahomes in his first starting season in 2018 and Dak Prescott in 2019 are the only two to finish 1st or 2nd in the category after having not ranked in the top 12 the previous season in yards per game).
  • Mahomes was 5th in passing yards per game last season, led the NFL in passing yards per game in 2020 (and would have led in yards if he hadn't sat Week 17), and also leads in yards per game over the last four seasons (301.7 yards per game).
  • The average passing yards leader played on a team that had a preseason win total of 10.0 wins (pro-rated to 17 games) and Kansas City is at 10.5 wins entering the season.
  • The Chiefs play a very tough schedule against lots of other good passing teams, which should lead to increased passing from Mahomes.
  • Of course, to win this award, the quarterback has to stay healthy and likely play every game, but if the Chiefs play near their win total expectation, he should be a favorite or co-favorite to lead the NFL.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Dallas Goedert Under 724.5 Receiving Yards -112

Won: 702 yards

Philadelphia Eagles

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Dallas Goedert has fewer than 725 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Goedert is 629 receiving yards, with 95 yards of value.
  • Goedert finished 2021 with 830 receiving yards, but we project value on the Under for several reasons.
  • First, the Eagles traded for WR A.J. Brown and Goedert now has more target competition, and even if the Eagles do pass a little more, Goedert's relative target share should go down.
  • Second, Goedert had a career high 14.8 yards per reception, allowing him to get to 830 yards despite only 56 catches. His career average over four seasons is 11.9 yards per reception.
  • So we like multiple outs here, in addition to injury risk at the tight end position, as Goedert can go under even with a similar number of catches if his yards per catch regresses, and can also go under by seeing less reception volume.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Deebo Samuel Under 349.5 Rushing Yards +100

Won: 232 yards

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Deebo Samuel has fewer than 350 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection is for 211 rushing yards for Deebo Samuel.
  • Samuel had 365 rushing yards last season, on 59 rush attempts (6.2 ypc), which would have just barely cleared this total, and it seems like a ceiling outcome.
  • Injuries to the San Francisco RB corp last year created the necessity for Samuel to work more as a running back. Projected starter Raheem Mostert had only two carries, rookie Elijah Mitchell was the leading rusher while missing six games, Jeff Wilson missed eight games, rookie Trey Sermon disappointed and was inactive for half the season.
  • The running back health situation will likely be better in 2022, with the team drafting Tyrion Davis-Price, and all the other backs (Mitchell, Wilson, and Sermon) currently healthy.
  • Samuel also got a big contract this offseason after expressing displeasure with his usage as both a running back and receiver.
  • So while we project the team to still use Samuel as a playmaker occasionally out of the backfield, and project him to have more rushing yards than any other wide receiver, the team will likely be less incentivized, because of running back depth and his contract cost, to use him as heavily as last season.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:33pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

NFL Player Future

Elijah Mitchell Under 950.5 Rushing Yards -120

Won: 279 yards

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Elijah Mitchell has fewer than 951 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Mitchell is 824 rushing yards, about 126 yards of value.
  • Mitchell, a 6th round rookie, finished with 963 rushing yards last year, leading San Francisco, while playing in 11 games.
  • However, he did miss six games with a variety of injuries (rib, shoulder, knee, concussion) while being used heavily in games he did play, as San Francisco's running back depth was impacted by an early season-ending injury to Raheem Mostert and fellow rookie Trey Sermon struggling.
  • Our projections have Mitchell as the RB26 in PPR formats, similar to his RB24 ranking in NFFC Drafts and RB23 in Underdog Best Ball formats.
  • The biggest issues here are San Francisco's running back usage patterns, and the differing situations from last season for Mitchell.
  • In Kyle Shanahan's five seasons as head coach in San Francisco, the team has had a different leading rusher each season.
  • San Francisco was also really thin at running back last year, and WR Deebo Samuel ended up being the second-leading rusher. The team drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the 3rd round in this draft, and he projects as part of a running back platoon behind Mitchell.
  • FanDuel's line had opened at 975.5 but has already moved down to 900.5, but this line is currently available at DraftKings.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Trey Lance Over 21.5 Passing TDs -110

Lost: 0 TDs

San Francisco 49ers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Trey Lance throws at least 22 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Lance is 23.5 passing touchdowns; he threw five TDs in only 71 pass attempts last year as a rookie, starting two games.
  • Lance was the 3rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, and should be the starter in San Francisco in 2022, though Jimmy Garoppolo's presence (until a trade) might be providing a little value right now as the market prices in that risk. When/if Garoppolo is healthy and traded the totals could rise.
  • Our player similarity and team models like the Lance Over here, as we've seen several recent breakout second-year performances at QB, including both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson winning MVP.
  • Lance projects as a high-volume rusher and dual threat, but while his passing volume may be lower, he should have a high TD rate given his athletic ability and the talent around him.
  • The 49ers are at 10.0 wins in the betting market, and every starting QB on a team with a win total higher than San Francisco is listed at 31.5 or more pass TDs, so even with a reduced passing volume, there is big upside here on Lance to go over this low total.
  • Lance is also continuing to steam up in the Best Ball fantasy market, and we project momentum as he is officially declared the starter by the preseason, where these totals won't be available as we get closer to the season.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Falcons To Score Fewest Points In NFL +600

Lost: Denver fewest points

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Falcons score the fewest points in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • In our fantasy football team projections, Atlanta is projected just above Houston and just below Seattle, for 31st in points scored on average.
  • However, we like Atlanta as the best value here based on quarterback and offense factors (and Seattle's projection could change upward if they acquire Baker Mayfield, which is still very possible, so that's why Atlanta is the safer play to be the lowest scoring at value).
  • To hit on a play like this, you are looking for the long-tail bad outcomes, not just the median outcome, and Atlanta profiles as a team with the most potential downward variance based on coach and QB situation.
  • In a review of teams that have finished last in scoring, six of the last eight had rookie QBs make a significant number of starts. Six of the last eight also had head coaches in their first or second year with the team.
  • Atlanta is making a big transition from Matt Ryan, who had started all but one game for the franchise in the last 12 years, and the quarterbacks will be some combination of journeyman Marcus Mariota, who last started a game three seasons ago, or third-round rookie Desmond Ridder.
  • Given that Atlanta has the second-lowest win total in the betting markets, the chances that Ridder sees significant playing time as a rookie are increased, and third-round rookie QBs are fairly high variance in outcome.
  • Atlanta was 26th a year ago in points scored, with Ryan at QB and in head coach Arthur Smith's first season, and starting wide receiver Calvin Ridley is now suspended indefinitely. Other than TE Kyle Pitts, this is a team with a lot of questions on offense.

Pick published: Jun 16 8:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Spread

Broncos -3.0 -115

Push: 31-28

Chargers at Broncos

Sun Jan 8 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game by more than 3 points in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on likely motivations.
  • The Chargers clinch the No. 5 seed right before kickoff of the game, if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati in the early games.
  • The Chargers are likely to not play key players and play QB Justin Herbert at most for a short stretch if they have clinched the No. 5 seed, especially considering that they had several key offensive players miss time this year with injury.

Pick published: Jan 8 10:39am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 470

NFL Moneyline

Browns To Win +128

Lost: 14-28

Browns at Steelers

Sun Jan 8 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland Browns win the game in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model moneyline pick for Week 18.
  • The Steelers are playing for a wild card spot, though they still need help. The Browns, meanwhile, get to try to spoil their rival's chances and end Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin's streak of never having a losing season.

  • Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games, but they have all been tight games that came down to the wire. We will play on some of the pressure and other game results having an impact here, as well as a Browns' team that has underperformed but still may be motivated to ruin Pittsburgh's season.

  • Pittsburgh's mental approach could also be impacted by in-game updates from the results in the games that impact them (New England and Miami) if the results aren't going their way in those games late.

Pick published: Jan 8 10:50am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 461

NFL Team Future

Dolphins to Make the Playoffs -175

Won: Dolphins Make Playoffs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Miami Dolphins make the playoffs at the end of the 2022 season.

Staff notes:

  • Miami is off to a 2-0 start after wins over New England and Baltimore, after completing a big fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens.
  • Our current projections have Miami at 72% to make the playoffs after the 2-0 start.
  • The break-even moneyline on Miami to make the playoffs as of Monday, September 19 is -253 (check our season projections page for the most up-to-date estimate.)
  • Miami has gotten off to an explosive start on offense, and QB Tua Tagoavailoa has thrown for 739 yards in two games.
  • Going back to 2002, 35 of the 50 2-0 teams (70%) to score more than 56 points in the first two games and out-gain opponents by at least 100 total yards made the playoffs (or would have with a 7th spot available).
  • Six of the seven QBs since 2002 to start a year 2-0 while throwing for over 700 passing yards played on teams that reached the playoffs.



     

Pick published: Sep 19 2:35pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Ravens AFC North Winner +210

Lost: Bengals win AFC North

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Ravens win the AFC North division in 2022.

Staff notes:

  • These are playable picks based on both our projection on Baltimore to win the division, and the uncertainty around Deshaun Watson's status for the season.
  • Watson was expected to serve a partial suspension this year, after sitting out all of last year in Houston, but escalating reports in papers like the New York Times increase the likelihood that he will be suspended for the entire season.
  • While books aren't offering win totals on Cleveland or wagers on them directly, you can still indirectly make wagers against the latest news on things like the AFC North winner, where Cleveland has been priced in the same range as Baltimore and Cincinnati to win the division. Some books have recently moved (FanDuel is at +175 on Ravens and +230 on Browns now) but these two have not changed in last month.
  • Our projections give the Ravens a 35.4% chance to win the AFC North and those odds should rise if Watson is officially suspended for the year.
  • Baltimore had been one of the best teams in the AFC the previous two seasons, but in 2021 they were ravaged by injuries, which included all of their running backs being injured pre-season, and Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. So there's an injury bounce-back and value with Baltimore.

Pick published: Jun 9 4:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, William Hill.

NFL Team Future

Patriots To Make Playoffs +160

Lost: Missed Playoffs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Patriots make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection gives New England a 47% chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, and our break-even moneyline on New England is +113.
  • This line is also a little off-market, as other books have the New England to make playoffs price at closer to +140.
  • The New England Patriots were 2nd in the NFL in point differential a year ago, finishing at +159 points and 10 wins.
  • The market seems down on the Patriots based on the departure of Josh McDaniels and some offensive assistants to the Raiders, and Bill Belichick being coy about his plans on who is calling plays.

Pick published: May 19 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Mike Gesicki Under 55.5 Receptions -115

Won: 32 receptions

Miami Dolphins

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Mike Gesicki has fewer than 56 pass receptions during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Initially, we had Gesicki projected for 54 receptions this year, not significantly different than this offering.
  • However, in the last week, Gesicki has played into the second half of a preseason game and said he was working on blocking more, whereas in the past he had been a receiver.
  • When asked about trade rumors regarding Gesicki, new head coach Mike McDaniels issued a non-denial when he said "I mean, the report is kind of misleading because there are probably just gonna be a lot of names on that report."
  • Given the smoke here, and possibility that Gesicki is used in a different role now that he has a new coach and Tyreek Hill is at WR, as well as the possibility he is moved, there is some value on the under.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Custom Bet

Texans Player Over 999.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: Cooks-699 yards

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Any Houston Texans player has at least 1000 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The two most likely candidates to win this prop are WR Brandin Cooks and WR Nico Collins.
  • Our projection for Brandin Cooks is 1053 receiving yards, and for Nico Collins is 674 receiving yards.
  • With the news that rookie John Metchie, a second-round pick at WR out of Alabama, will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer, there is little other target competition on the roster for these two starting wide receivers.
  • Houston is also projected with the lowest win total in the NFL, and they have no established running back, so they are likely to pass at a high rate given they will likely be trailing in several games.
  • Collins' upside as a second-year player who started to emerge as a starter at the end of the season, along with our projection on Cooks already being over the prop number, makes this playable.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Ja'Marr Chase At Least One 200-Yard Receiving Game +450

Lost: 0 200-yd games

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Ja'Marr Chase has at least one 200-yard receiving game in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • 200-Yard Receiving Games are relatively rare (47 in the last 10 seasons, according to Pro Football Reference) but we still see value on playing these two props in unison.
  • Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are consensus WR2 and WR3 in fantasy football rankings entering 2022, and at ages 23 and 22, respectively, entering the season, have lots of big play upside.
  • Jefferson has never had a 200-yard game so far in two seasons (181 is his career high) while Chase had two of them as a rookie, including a 266-yard game against the Chiefs.
  • Over the last decade, wide receivers who were ranked in the top 5 in consensus fantasy rankings entering the season have accounted for 14 of the 200-yard receiving games, among 13 different player-seasons (Calvin Johnson did it twice in 2012).
  • That means in the last 10 years, wide receivers with preseason expectations like Jefferson and Chase achieved a 200-yard receiving game in 26% of seasons (13 of 50).
  • If we use that as a baseline expectation, that means there is value at about +300 for each player.
  • By playing them together, you have about a 50% chance of hitting on at least one of them this season.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Michael Thomas Over 799.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 171 yards

New Orleans Saints

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Michael Thomas has at least 800 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Michael Thomas is 868 receiving yards, and he is ranked as the 34th WR in our PPR rankings, and is WR30 in the FantasyPros ADP.
  • What makes this Over playable on Thomas specifically at BetMGM is the conditions offered, where they say that the bet is void if the player does not play in Week 1.
  • This prop total is virtually identical to that offered at DraftKings (800.5) but DraftKings wagers are action as long as the player plays at any point during the season.
  • Our projection on Thomas includes a slightly increased risk of missed games, since he is coming off not playing at all in 2021, and played only seven games in 2020.
  • However, if the bet is going to void anyway if he is hurt or unable to play in Week 1, that reduces some of the downside injury risk of Thomas returning after being out a year and a half.
  • If Thomas is healthy enough to play to start the season, that should increase the edge on this Over, and our projected number in that scenario would rise.

Pick published: Jul 21 7:00am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Joe Burrow Under 34.5 Passing TDs -120

Lost: 35 TDs

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow throws fewer than 35 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Burrow is 29.3 passing touchdowns, and he finished last year with 34 in 16 games played.
  • Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt last year, and a whopping eight of his touchdown passes in the regular season last year were 50 yards or more. For perspective, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes each had one regular season pass TD of 50 or more yards in 2021.
  • As a result, we see some regression value on the Under here if Burrow just has a few less big plays that end in touchdowns.
  • Also, this pass TD total is high relative to the Bengals' win total in the betting markets (9.5 implied). Burrow is one of seven QBs with a Passing TD total of 34.5 or more, but the Bengals have the lowest expected wins of that group of QBs, and are on average more than 1.0 wins lower than the other six teams.
  • The odds on Under have already been moved to -120 in the few hours that this prop has been live.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Jameis Winston Under 27.5 Passing TDs -110

Won: 4 TDs

New Orleans Saints

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jameis Winston throws fewer than 28 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Winston is 23.1 passing touchdowns; he finished last year with 14 in 7 games played.
  • Winston was a low-volume passer last year before his knee injury, but had an abnormally high TD rate (8.9%) compared to his career average and compared to most QBs with his Yards per Attempt (only 7.3). This number seems inflated by incorporating his most recent TD rate in a limited sample size of games.
  • In a review of the eight other starting quarterbacks since 2002 to have a TD rate of 6.5% or higher on between 150 and 350 pass attempts, they averaged 22.9 touchdowns and a 4.7% TD rate the next season.
  • Winston's career TD rate is 5.0%, and in order to reach 27.5 touchdowns at that rate he would need to stay healthy and get to 550 pass attempts, which would have been 12th most for any quarterback in 2021 (the Saints fell to 30th in pass attempts last season as a team).
  • This total is also a little high compared to the Saints' win total expectation (implied 8.4 in betting markets currently), especially considering the Saints' strong defense in 2021. Similar teams in win totals market like Miami, Arizona, and New England have QB Pass TD props of 25.5, 25.5, and 23.5 respectively.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Lamar Jackson Under 3750.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 2242 yards

Baltimore Ravens

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson passes for at fewer than 3751 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Jackson is 3543 Passing Yards, more than 200 yards of value below the prop number.
  • Jackson's career high in passing yards is 3127, in 2019.
  • He was on pace to shatter that in 2021, and was throwing at a high rate per game, until an injury cost him the final five games of the season.
  • However, last year's Ravens team was decimated at running back before the season began. Despite missing games, Jackson finished tied for the most rushing attempts, and none of the top four running backs in attempts in 2021 are even on the roster now.
  • Jackson also saw his INT rate rise dramatically and his efficiency drop with the increased pass volume, and that, along with the return of running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, has us projecting a return to the more balanced pass-run ratio the Ravens have had in previous years with Jackson at QB.
  • As a result, there is good Under value here, both with his risk of injury as a running quarterback, and also that the team will seek to return to what worked more effectively in terms of pass volume.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Tom Brady Under 4699.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 4694 yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Tom Brady passes for at fewer than 4700 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • This player prop pick is made in conjunction with our Tampa Bay team Under pick, as even though there are scenarios where one pick wins and the other loses, the two picks are correlated.
  • Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards a year ago, setting a career-high in both categories in the 17-game season at age 44.
  • However, with the recent retirement announcement by TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Chris Godwin still rehabbing from his December ACL injury, and WR Antonio Brown being cut by the Bucs, three of the four leading receivers from last year's team are unlikely to be playing early in the season.
  • That means lots of turnover for Tom Brady and his receivers, and when you add in Brady's own retirement then un-retirement, and the abrupt coaching change in Tampa, there is lots of uncertainty entering the season in Tampa Bay.
  • FanDuel also just released several NFL QB prop lines, and their offered line on Brady is 4500.5 passing yards, so you are getting some line value here by grabbing this DraftKings line while it is still up.
  • Our current projected passing yards for Brady is 4569 yards, which could be adjusted further down if it's confirmed that Godwin will be inactive to start the season.

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Pat Freiermuth Under 60.5 Receptions -120

Lost: 63 receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Pat Freiermuth has fewer than 61 pass receptions during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection on Freiermuth is for 53 receptions this season.
  • Last year, Freiermuth had exactly 60 receptions and 497 receiving yards (for a paltry 8.3 yards per catch) while playing with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
  • We see value on the Under this year, though, for a variety of reasons.
  • Pittsburgh was 4th in the NFL in pass attempts last year with Roethlisberger, but is switching to a combination of Mitch Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett, and should see a decrease in passing volume.
  • Further, in the last week, we've seen plenty of buzz about the emergence of 2nd-round rookie George Pickens, who put up several highlight catches in the first preseason game with the starters.
  • While Pickens' props are not currently available at DK, this is a correlated bet that his emergence creates even more target competition in the offense, and impacts Freiermuth's upside in receptions.
  • Last year, Freiermuth had only 7 catches in 3 games where WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Juju Smith-Schuster played, averaged 4.0 in games where one was out, and had 5 catches on a season-high 9 targets in the one game where only Diontae Johnson was active.
  • With three quality receivers in Johnson, Claypool, and now Pickens to start the year, that should mean reduced opportunity for Freiermuth.
  • We also see value on the Freiermuth receiving yards Under (555.5 yards) but there is a better possibility he could see an uptick in yards per catch with different passers compared to last season.

Pick published: Aug 11 1:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Diontae Johnson Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 882 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Diontae Johnson has fewer than 1001 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Johnson is 889 receiving yards, with 111.5 yards of value.
  • Pittsburgh has ranked 4th and 1st the last two seasons in total pass attempts, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.
  • We project a shift in passing volume for Pittsburgh transitioning to either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB, and have the team projected for more than 100 fewer pass attempts than 2021.
  • Johnson has been the biggest beneficiary of that high volume passing, but the potential for a passing volume decrease and a shift in his usage provides value on this Under.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Najee Harris Under 1199.5 Rushing Yards -130

Won: 1038 yards

Pittsburgh Steelers

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Najee Harris has fewer than 1200 rushing yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Harris finished his rookie season with exactly 1,200 rushing yards in 17 games played.
  • This line, though, is a little high based on the risk of injury and uncertainty with the Pittsburgh offense with a QB change.
  • The odds on Under have moved from -115 to -130 since this prop was opened, though the total has stayed the same so far.
  • Harris is 5th in our projected rushing yards with 1,099 rushing yards and 4th in total yards from scrimmage among running backs, which is in line with the fantasy market average draft position data. He?s also 5th in odds to win the rushing title at several sports books, so we are on market their in our relative projection.
  • Harris? most similar players averaged 14.1 games played in the next season.
  • We do project positive regression in Harris' Yards Per Carry (3.9 last year), but that is offset by accounting for the injury risk.
  • This is a playable pick because even if he is healthy for all 17 games, the Under could still hit, and if Harris misses games it is a likely winner.

Pick published: May 26 1:00pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

NFL Player Future

Justin Fields Under 3399.5 Passing Yards +100

Won: 2242 yards

Chicago Bears

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields passes for at fewer than 3400 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yard projection for Justin Fields is 3,182 yards.
  • Fields had a high 11% sack rate as a rookie, and ran the ball over six times a game, while averaging 180 passing yards in 10 starts as a rookie.
  • Fields projects as a high volume rushing quarterback and a low-volume passer in Chicago's offense, particularly considering the lack of passing weapons around him.
  • Add in some slight risk that Fields is not the starter all year on a bad team, or that he gets injured as a rushing quarterback, and the Under is playable, particularly with even odds.

Pick published: May 26 1:00pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

NFL Player Future

Breece Hall Over 4.5 Rushing TDs -135

Lost: 4 rush TDs

New York Jets

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Breece Hall scores at least 5 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Hall is for an average of 6.8 rushing touchdowns in 2022, and we have him ranked as the 15th RB in PPR formats.
  • Hall was the 36th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and the first running back selected.
  • In preliminary ADP data, Hall is going as RB18 in NFFC high stakes drafts and RB20 in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts.
  • We have ADP (Average Draft Position) data going back to 2010, and the 17 prior rookie running backs to have an ADP between 11 and 24 (average: RB17) in that span went Over 4.5 rushing TDs on 11 occasions (64.7%) with an average of 6.1 rushing touchdowns scored.
  • The last five rookies with a similar ADP went over 4.5 rush TDs (Najee Harris, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Royce Freeman).
  • Hall is projected as the lead back in New York ahead of Michael Carter, but even if he is in a committee situation, the 6'1", 220 lb. Hall projects as the goal line back of the duo, compared to the much smaller Carter, who is more of a receiving back.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Custom Bet

Any 2021 4th Place Team To Win Division -200

Won: Jaguars win AFC South

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: At least one team that finished 4th (last) in their division in 2021 wins their division in 2022. That's the Jets, Broncos, Ravens, Jaguars, Giants, Seahawks, Lions, or Panthers.

Staff notes:

  • Line currently available at DraftKings Sportsbook under "Team Specials" and the "mixed" tab, all the way at the bottom of the menu.
  • Based on our odds for each of these teams to win its division, our estimate is that there is a 69.5% chance that at least one of these teams wins its division.
  • The break-even odds needed to make this playable are 66.7%.

Pick published: Jul 21 7:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Jaguars To Win AFC South +350

Won: Jaguars win division

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South in 2022.

Staff notes:

  • Jacksonville won against the Indianapolis Colts 24-0 in Week 2 to move to 1-1;
  • While the Tennessee-Buffalo game result is still pending, the Jaguars are the only team so far in the AFC South with a win, and that was in division against the preseason favorite.
  • This specific payout odds recommendation is based on the current line on Monday pre-Titans result, so check our Season Predictions page to see the updated odds if you are checking after the Monday night result.
  • As of now, we project Jacksonville with a 27% chance of winning the AFC South, a division where we currently do not project any team for a winning record. The break-even moneyline for the Jags to win the South is +272.
  • Jacksonville has a new coach (with a history of success) and a second-year QB who was drafted 1st overall in Trevor Lawrence, so after seeing he and the team get off to a much better start in 2022, there is some value on playing on this young Jags team based on how others have started.

Pick published: Sep 19 2:21pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

NFL Team Future

Titans to Win AFC South -115

Lost: Jaguars win division

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Tennessee Titans win the AFC South.

Staff notes:

  • This is an off-market, lower odds line compared to other books. (DraftKings, for example, is at -160).
  • Our projection is a 64% chance that the Titans win the AFC South after sweeping the Colts on Sunday.
  • Further, the Colts announced that they were starting Sam Ehlinger instead of Matt Ryan at QB for the rest of the year.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:43pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Travis Etienne Jr. Over 319.5 Receiving Yards -112

Lost: 316 yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Travis Etienne Jr. has at least 320 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Etienne is 389 receiving yards, with 70 yards of value.
  • Etienne is currently steaming up in average draft position value in fantasy markets, as he is up to RB16 in Underdog Best Ball and he has been RB17 in NFFC drafts over the last month.
  • Some of that movement is related to no setbacks reported for Etienne, who missed all of 2021 with a foot injury after being drafted in the first round, and some is related to the market realization that James Robinson will not be 100 per cent after a late December Achilles tear, and could be limited for the first half of the season.
  • Etienne also projects as an all-purpose receiving back in the NFL, so even if he gets platoon duties, he will likely still play a prominent receiving role. Etienne had 588 receiving yards his last year at Clemson, in 12 games.
  • We may adjust our projection upward on Etienne to match further market or injury news, but even before that, Etienne is a value at this price.

Pick published: Jul 14 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Treylon Burks Under 869.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 444 yards

Tennessee Titans

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Treylon Burks has fewer than 870 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Burks is for an average of 753 receiving yards in 2022, and we have him ranked as the 45th WR in PPR formats.
  • Burks was drafted 18th overall by the Tennessee Titans, the fifth wide receiver selected.
  • Burks' projection is based on his projected role, market data on where Burks is going in early drafts, and historical rookie comparisons.
  • He will likely fill the top wide receiver role early on for Tennessee, after the team traded A.J. Brown, at least while veteran Robert Woods works back from a knee injury early in the year.
  • However, Burks' historical comps aren't all that impressive, and he rated below average athletically among taller wide receivers (6'1" or taller) since 2011 in several important categories, including 40-yard time, vertical jump, and three-cone time.
  • Of the most similar players to Burks in the last decade by draft position, age, height/weight, and Combine/athletic testing data, only two of the 10 had more than 869 receiving yards (pro-rated to 17 games).
  • The five most similar rookies to Burks in this analysis are Laquon Treadwell, N'Keal Harry, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, and DeAndre Hopkins. Three of those five were major busts who produced less than 200 receiving yards as rookies.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Ryan Tannehill Under 3700.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 2536 yards

Tennessee Titans

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Ryan Tannehill passes for at fewer than 3701 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Tannehill is 3464 Passing Yards, and the 236.5 yards of value is the largest of any of the 27 released QB Passing Yard props on DraftKings.
  • Tannehill has been a low volume passer but efficient in Tennessee, finishing with 3734 and 3819 passing yards the last two years while playing virtually every snap and accounting for 99.2% of all Titans pass attempts the last two seasons. Logan Woodside's three pass attempts in 2020 are the only QB throws not by Tannehill over that span.
  • We like the Under value here for several reasons, starting with star WR A.J. Brown being traded to Philadelphia and the team having lots of turnover in the receiving corp.
  • The Titans also drafted QB Malik Willis in the third round, and while Willis is raw and not likely to supplant Tannehill as the starter without an injury, Willis being used in sub-packages and getting some playing time is very possible, especially late in the year.
  • Tannehill barely cleared this total each of the last two years while playing nearly every snap, and when you add injury risk, personnel changes, and the addition of Willis, there are a lot of outs to going Under on this total.

Pick published: Jun 30 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Future

Derek Carr Over 4300.5 Passing Yards -112

Lost: 3522 yards

Las Vegas Raiders

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Derek Carr passes for at least 4301 yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • While we generally tend to lean Under on season prop totals (because of injury risk and other forms of negative variance that the public underrates), this one offers too much value compared to our passing projections.
  • We are currently projecting Carr for 4,664 passing yards in 2022, including the risk of injury. We have him projected for 95% of the pass attempts with Las Vegas this year, a number in line with the median for pocket passers like Carr who are established starters.
  • Our overall fantasy rank on Carr (QB14) based on his projected stats is in line with the fantasy market, as he is QB14 on Underdog Fantasy in average draft position, and QB13 in FantasyPros Expert Consensus rankings.
  • This line has also already moved from 4250.5 to 4300.5 since opening a couple of days ago.
  • Carr is positioned to be among the league leaders in passing yards, as he set a career-high in attempts at age 30 a year ago, and the team has now added star WR Davante Adams to go with TE Darren Waller (missed six games last season) and slot WR Hunter Renfrow.
  • Las Vegas is also projected with a win total that puts them around .500, but plays in a tough AFC West with lots of good offenses, where they will need to be pass-heavy to compete.
  • New head coach Josh McDaniels has coordinated a couple of low-volume passing offenses the last two years, but that is attributable to the Patriots going from Tom Brady to Cam Newton at quarterback, and then to a rookie in Mac Jones. He only has two other years (out of 14 as a head coach or coordinator) where his teams were outside the top 12 in pass volume, and those involved starting QB suspensions or injuries.
  • Along with the addition of Adams, reports on RB Josh Jacobs' likely diminished role with the team also suggest this could be a pass-focused offense in 2022. (Jacobs has averaged only 5.5 yards per target as a receiver for his career.)

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Future

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 6.5 Rushing TDs -135

Won: 3 rushing TDs

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Clyde Edwards-Helaire scores fewer than 7 rushing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Edwards-Helaire rushing TDs is 3.7 in 2022.
  • Edwards-Helaire has not been featured near the goal line in his first two years, with four TDs in each season, and we are banking on that role not changing significantly in 2022.
  • Edwards-Helaire had 44% of the running back rushing attempts the last two seasons in Kansas City, but only 13 of 40 attempts (33%) inside the opponent 5-yard line, and only 10 of 60 attempts (17%) in short-yardage situations (3rd/4th down with 2 or less to go).
  • Darrel Williams is now gone to Arizona, but the team signed Ronald Jones from Tampa Bay (17 rush TDs in last three years) and re-signed veteran Jerick McKinnon at running back.
  • As an aside, this is the biggest individual edge at rush TD, but the DraftKings lines on rush TDs are generally high on most running backs and there is systemic value on the Under here.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Patrick Mahomes Over 39.5 Passing Attempts -114

Lost: 26 attempts

Chiefs at Raiders

Sat Jan 7 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes attempts more than 39 passes in Week 18.

Staff notes:

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are playing to clinch the No. 1 seed and get a bye in the AFC Playoffs against the Raiders, and Mahomes should be a big part of the game plan anyway.
  • Mahomes also has an outside chance of setting the NFL single-season passing record, needing 430 yards to pass Peyton Manning's 2013 mark. 
  • Mahomes is also playing to clinch the NFL MVP award with a big final week performance, as he is currently the heavy favorite.
  • As a result of all that, we expect Kansas City to be very pass heavy early, especially given the matchup, and throw at a rate even higher than his median pass attempts per game (39).
  • The Raiders are also 28th in net yards per pass allowed, 29th in total pass yards allowed, and 30th in interceptions, with only 6 all year.

Pick published: Jan 7 11:44am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Southern California -1.5 -110

Lost: 45-46

Tulane vs. Southern California

Mon Jan 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC wins the game by more than 1 point in the Cotton Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, at -2.5.
  • The FanDuel line is currently below market but play it to a field goal before it moves over the 3 key number. 
  • As we noted last year in our Bowl Betting Trends article, teams with great spread records in the regular season are actually good teams to go against in bowls.
  • Adding in the 5-1 record last year, going back to 2011, if you had played against every team that had a 75% or better cover record in the season, you would have gone 45-29-1 ATS (61%).
  • Tulane had the best ATS record of any team in FBS this year, at 11-2 ATS in making a surprise run to the American Conference title. 

 

 

https://betiq.teamrankings.com/articles/2021-bowl-betting-three-trends-and-angles-to-consider/

Pick published: Dec 5 3:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 280

NCAAF Spread

Louisiana St. -10.0 -110

Won: 63-7

Louisiana St. vs. Purdue

Mon Jan 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU wins the game by more than 10 points in the Citrus Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top-rated model pick for college football bowl games.
  • In addition, Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is leaving for his alma mater, Louisville, after the bowl matchup was announced and after already starting practices for the bowl game. While each interim coach situation in bowl games is different, Brohm has also been the play caller on offense for Purdue, and the line has already started to move on the rumors over the last day.
  • Purdue also made the Big West title game but that was a function of a weak division and poor results by others, as they went 5-8 ATS and are No. 42 in our predictive power ratings.

Pick published: Dec 7 12:14pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 282

NFL Team Future

Raiders To Make Playoffs +175

Lost: Eliminated in Week 17

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Raiders make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our odds, the break-even for Las Vegas to make the playoffs is +154.
  • The Raiders made the playoffs last year at 10-7, despite a negative point differential.
  • Las Vegas overcame several offensive issues and the mid-season firing of head coach Jon Gruden, and has majorly upgraded the receiving weapons in new head coach Josh McDaniels' first year.
  • The team acquired All-Pro WR Davante Adams from Green Bay, and star tight end Darren Waller missed six games last year (but still finished as the second-leading receiver).
  • The Raiders are in the toughest division in the NFL entering the season, and are projected in fourth place, but have enough potential in a crowded AFC to provide value at this line.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:34pm ET, available at that time at Caesars.

NFL Team Future

Chargers Under 9.5 Season Wins +100

Lost: 10 wins as of Week 17

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Los Angeles Chargers win fewer than 10 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projections show value on both this win total Under as well as the Chargers to miss playoffs prop at DraftKings (+120 to miss). 
  • This is the higher value play, though, because of the risk the Chargers are more likely to make the playoffs while going 9-8, rather than miss at 10-7.
  • Our win total projection for the Chargers is 8.6 wins following their loss to Seattle to drop to 4-3. 
  • Based on the win distributions in our simulations, there is a 68.5% chance the Chargers finish with 9 or fewer wins. 
  • The upcoming schedule for the Chargers is a difficult one, and we project 6 of their 10 upcoming opponents with a current higher power rating than the Chargers, before adjusting for home field.
  • Los Angeles has also suffered several key injuries, including DE Joey Bosa, OT Rashawn Slater and CB J.C. Jackson. WR Keenan Allen is trying to come back from an injury, and WR Mike Williams just suffered a high ankle sprain that could keep him out multiple games.
     

Pick published: Oct 24 5:22pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Vikings at Packers Under 48.5 -118

Lost: 58 points

Sun Jan 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Green Bay combine for 48 or fewer points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under for Week 17.
  • The Vikings and Packers face off in a key game for the Packers' playoff hopes while Minnesota is still playing for playoff positioning in the NFC.
  • Minnesota games have been wild of late, with lots of late scoring and game environments that result in shootouts.
  • But the points per play and yards per point profiles of these two teams suggest their is value on the Under in this divisional matchup.
  • Both teams have also been creating turnovers at a high rate recently, another factor.
  • Green Bay's defense has allowed only 43 total first downs in their last three games.
  • Green Bay's offense has outperformed their points scored based on yardage profile in the last three games, ranking 7th in yards per point in the last 3, compared to 22nd for the year.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:21am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 128

NFL Spread

Rams +6.5 -110

Lost: 10-31

Rams at Chargers

Sun Jan 1 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Rams win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 17.
  • The Rams have turned around their running game, as they ranked near the bottom of the NFL at mid-season, but have had over 110 rushing yards in four of the last six games. RB Cam Akers, who struggled early in the year coming back from an Achilles injury and was inactivated for a stretch, has put together the two best games since his injury.
  • Akers gets a Chargers team that struggles to stop the run (5.3 yards per carry allowed).
  • The Chargers also just clinched a wildcard spot, and their opportunity to significantly improve their playoff positioning is not high as they are likely going to be in the 5th or 6th slot. So the motivation edge could belong to the team that is rejuvenating what looked like a lost season, and coming off a 51-14 shellacking of Denver.
  • This game is technically a road game for the Rams but is played in their home stadium.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 129

NFL Spread

Eagles -6.5 -110

Lost: 10-20

Saints at Eagles

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia wins the game by more than 6 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick for Week 17 in the NFL.
  • The Eagles are playing to clinch the NFC East and the conference No. 1 overall seed in this game.
  • The team hasn't ruled out QB Jalen Hurts from playing in Week 17 after missing the last game against Dallas.
  • Some of the factors our models are picking up are the extreme difference in rushing production, as the Saints have struggled to run the ball over the last 7 games, and to get first downs via rush, while the Eagles are a dominant running team.

Pick published: Dec 27 10:01am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 110

NFL Spread

Colts +5.5 -110

Lost: 10-38

Colts at Giants

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 17.
  • The Giants are not a good passing team, and while they have thrived in an underdog role this year, this is the first time they have been favored since a November home loss to Detroit six games ago.
  • Some of the factors the models are picking up include the Giants poor rush defense in the last seven games, compared to the Colts having good rush defense numbers, and the Colts' extreme turnover rate.

Pick published: Jan 1 8:58am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 121

NFL Spread

Panthers +3.5 -110

Lost: 24-30

Panthers at Buccaneers

Sun Jan 1 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick but is a pick based on team trends.
  • After last week's win over Detroit, the Panthers are now 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS with Steve Wilks as interim coach. That includes a big upset of Tampa Bay back in Week 7, when they held the Bucs to three total points.
  • Tampa Bay's offense has struggled all year, and rank 28th in points in points scored, and following a 2-0 start, they are 5-8 SU and an incredible 1-11-1 ATS. The last time the Bucs scored more than 23 points was back in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City; the last time they crossed 400 total yards was in Germany against Seattle in early November.
  • Carolina has the better running game by a mile (Tampa Bay still ranks last in yards and yards per carry), and the pass defenses for both teams are very good, especially down the stretch for Carolina. Meanwhile, Carolina QB Sam Darnold is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt in his four starts, while the Bucs' Tom Brady is plodding along at 6.2 yards per attempt this year.

Pick published: Jan 1 9:07am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 103

NCAAF Spread

Iowa +3.0 -105

Won: 21-0

Iowa vs. Kentucky

Sat Dec 31 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in the Music City Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model spread pick in bowl games as of today.
  • In addition, Kentucky has a potential first round pick at QB in Will Levis, who has battled multiple injuries this year behind a struggling Kentucky offensive line. There's potential value here if Levis opts to sit out the bowl game between these two 7-5 teams to get ready for the NFL Draft.

Pick published: Dec 5 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 269

NCAAF Over/Under

Iowa vs. Kentucky Over 31.5 -110

Lost: 21 points

Sat Dec 31 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa and Kentucky combine for more than 31 points in the Music City Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
  • As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
  • After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
  • The average late December/early January daily high in Nashville, Tennessee is 49 degrees.

Pick published: Dec 5 3:36pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 269

NCAAF Spread

Clemson -6.0 -110

Lost: 14-31

Tennessee vs. Clemson

Fri Dec 30 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Clemson wins the Orange Bowl by more than 6 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the Orange Bowl.
  • Clemson finally moved on from QB D.J. Uiagalelei and went to freshman Cade Klubnik at QB, after the former veteran was inconsistent all year, and Klubnik put together an elite performance in the ACC title game.
  • Tennessee is without QB Hendon Hooker (season-ending knee injury) and the top two WRs also opted out of the bowl game.
  • Clemson is 12-6 ATS in bowl games/postseason games under Dabo Swinney.

Pick published: Dec 30 8:23am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 267

NCAAF Spread

South Carolina +3.5 -110

Lost: 38-45

Notre Dame vs. South Carolina

Fri Dec 30 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: South Carolina wins the Gator Bowl or loses by fewer than 4 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in the Gator Bowl.
  • Both of these teams are dealing with opt-outs and transfers, but Notre Dame will be without QB Jim Pyne, who entered the transfer portal, and will turn back to Tyler Buchner, who threw two picks and no touchdown passes in the first two games before getting hurt.
  • South Carolina closed by winning 4 of the last 5 outright as an underdog, including impressive wins over both Tennessee and Clemson to end the year.

Pick published: Dec 30 8:31am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 263

NFL Spread

Cowboys -10.0 -110

Won: 27-13

Cowboys at Titans

Thu Dec 29 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas Cowboys win the game by more than 10 points in Week 17.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model lean but not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick based on likely team motivations and participation.
  • The Tennessee Titans cannot improve or diminish their playoff chances, which come down to a Week 18 matchup with Jacksonville for the AFC South title.
  • Titans RB Derrick Henry did not practice yesterday, and with the game on a short week, and having no impact on their chances, he is at high risk of missing game.
  • There's also a good chance that some other players "rest" for the Week 18 game.
  • The Titans have lost and failed to cover in five straight games.
  • Rookie QB Malik Willis, who started the last game for an injured Ryan Tannehill, has been very bad, completing just over 50% of his passes, for 4.5 yards per attempt, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass in three starts.

Pick published: Dec 27 9:39am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 101

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas vs. Washington Under 67.0 -110

Won: 47 points

Thu Dec 29 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas and Washington combine for fewer than 67 points in the Alamo Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated model play for the bowl season.
  • Both of these teams rank near the top of college football (Texas No. 7, Washington No. 22) in our yards per point metric, scoring points at a high rate in the regular season relative to yards.
  • Washington's defense struggled in the regular season on third down defense, ranking 121st nationally, an area of regression potential.
  • Texas will be without star playmaking running back Bijan Robinson, expected to be an early pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and in the six games that went Over for Texas in the regular season, he averaged 176 rushing yards and scored 14 total touchdowns.

Pick published: Dec 29 11:36am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 257

NCAAF Over/Under

Syracuse vs. Minnesota Over 42.0 -110

Won: 48 points

Thu Dec 29 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Syracuse and Minnesota combine for more than 42 points in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
  • As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
  • After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
  • The average late December/early January daily high in Bronx, New York is 41 degrees, the third-coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Pick published: Dec 5 3:34pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 254

NCAAF Spread *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

East Carolina -10.5 -115

Won: 53-29

Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina

Tue Dec 27 • 6:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: East Carolina wins by more than 10 points in the Birmingham Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in the Birmingham Bowl.
  • Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall has entered the transfer portal, leaving Coastal with a big hole at QB. McCall has been a 3-year starter with a stellar 78-8 TD-INT ratio and averaged over 10 yards per attempt for his career.
  • Given his importance, this line will likely be on the move and continue upward, so shop for your best line. 
  • EDIT: after the news came out, McCall sent out a message that he was transferring but was going to play in the bowl game before doing so, so we are demoting the pick.

Pick published: Dec 12 3:34pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 241

NCAAF Over/Under *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina Under 60.0 -110

Lost: 82 points

Tue Dec 27 • 6:45pm ET

More info

How it wins: Coastal Carolina and East Carolina combine for fewer than 60 points in the Birmingham Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model Over/Under pick in the Birmingham Bowl.
  • In addtions, Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall has entered the transfer portal, leaving Coastal with a big hole at QB. McCall has been a 3-year starter with a stellar 78-8 TD-INT ratio and averaged over 10 yards per attempt for his career.
  • Given his importance and high efficiency stats, there is further value on a reduced efficiency offense game from Coastal Carolina.
  • EDIT: after the news broke, McCall sent out a message on social media that he was transferring but planned to play in the bowl game before doing so.

Pick published: Dec 12 3:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 241

NCAAF Spread

Utah St. +7.0 -110

Lost: 10-38

Memphis vs. Utah St.

Tue Dec 27 • 3:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Utah State wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in First Responder Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in the First Responder Bowl.
  • Utah State started the year 1-4 but rebounded to win 5 of the last 7 games.
  • Memphis started 4-1, but finished at 6-6 with only one more win over an FBS team.
  • Memphis ranks 15th in yards per point scored, compared to 82nd for Utah State, a regression area providing value on Utah State. 

Pick published: Dec 27 9:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 239

NFL Team Future

Cowboys To Miss Playoffs +240

Lost: Playoffs Clinched

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Cowboys make the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our preseason odds, the break-even for Dallas to miss the playoffs is +192.
  • The Eagles have improved this offseason with the addition of star WR A.J. Brown, and we now project them with basically the same chance to win the NFC East as the Cowboys.
  • Dallas, meanwhile, is facing some concerns at wide receiver. The team let veteran WR Amari Cooper go to Cleveland this offseason, and injuries have impacted the receiving position. Michael Gallup had a knee injury last year and is not expected to start the season active.
  • The team signed James Washington from Pittsburgh, but he fractured his foot at the start of camp.
  • As of right now, the starting depth chart for Week 1 is CeeDee Lamb, followed by third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert, and Noah Brown, who had a career-high 184 receiving yards last season.
  • These offensive concerns create more variability in how Dallas starts the season.
  • This line is also a bit off-market, as most books have Dallas priced closer to +200 to miss the playoffs.

Pick published: Aug 11 12:35pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Future

Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 1022 yards as of Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Tee Higgins has at least 976 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • You can also get Higgins at FanDuel at 1000.5 Receiving Yards -110, a very similar play in terms of value.
  • Our projection for Higgins is 1136 receiving yards, about 160 yards of value.
  • Higgins finished with 1091 yards last year while missing three games in the regular season.
  • The 23-year-old Higgins is 12th in our PPR rankings, similar to his position in Underdog Fantasy drafts where he is the 10th WR taken on average.
  • Higgins has the 15th highest receiving yard total on DraftKings right now, behind several wide receivers going behind him in fantasy drafts.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Panthers Over 5.5 Wins -125

Won: 6 wins as of Week 16

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Panthers win at least 6 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The FanDuel line is a little under market, as most books have this at Carolina 6.0 wins with -110 on both sides, and it is still playable at the latter line as well if you cannot obtain the 5.5.
  • Our projection for the Panthers is 6.5 wins in 2022.
  • Carolina, like New York, was a team that had quarterback injury issues and poor backup QB play that impacted their season.
  • The Panthers got off to a 3-0 start a year ago, but key injuries derailed the team and it went into a major slide, and only four players started every game a year ago.
  • The biggest injuries were 1st round pick CB Jaycee Horn tearing his Achilles in Week 3, and star running back Christian McCaffrey going down with another injury the same week.
  • The defense was among the league leaders in yards and sacks at the time of Horn's injury, and went into a slide after the injury.
  • Sam Darnold averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in four games played with Christian McCaffrey, and 5.5 yards per attempt in all other starts.
  • Our win totals research showed that teams with returning starting quarterbacks that missed five or more starts the previous year provide value against win totals, and that was before Dallas (Dak returning) and Cincinnati (Burrow returning) were two of the biggest win total value plays of 2021.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Over/Under

Seahawks at Chiefs Under 49.5 -110

Won: 34 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle and Kansas City combine for fewer than 50 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model over/under pick for Week 16.
  • Seattle will also be without WR Tyler Lockett, and it will be the first game all year wher Seattle will be without one of its top two WRs Lockett or Metcalf, and it is not a deep receiving corp (Marquise Goodwin as the WR3 has 387 yards total).
  • Kansas City has committed 5 turnovers in the last two weeks that have impacted opponent scoring. As a result, the Chiefs have given up 52 points, but the last two opponents have only averaged 270 total yards.

Pick published: Dec 23 3:37pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 466

NFL Over/Under

Bills at Bears Over 50.0 +299

Lost: 48 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Buffalo and Chicago combine for more than 50 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is an alternate game line available at + odds at DraftKings.
  • Our models have a playable Over on the 40.0 market line for this game.
  • That Over/Under has been driven down by the weather concerns for Chicago, where cold and winds could impact the game, and the current forecast is for the wind chill to be below zero at game time.
  • However, our research into the coldest games shows the potential for some outlier value on alternate lines in the coldest wind chill games.
  • Since 2002, there have been 26 games played at a wind chill of +2 degrees Fahrenheit or lower, and the Over and Under are even in those games (so the market is aware of weather impacts and they are likely priced in for the median result).
  • However, 8 of the 26 went Over by 16 or more points (31%) so when games have gone Over, there has been a tendency for them to show higher variance and go Over by a larger amount in these weather games.
  • Chicago games had gone Over the total in seven straight games before last week's Under against Philadelphia, and the defense has allowed at least 25 points in seven straight games.
  • Both teams have mobile running quarterbacks who can make plays with their feet, and can still generate offense even at lower passing volume. 
  • So while it's a longer shot play, we think there is some value in these teams having some outlier qualities that could lead to scoring in these conditions.
  • We are specifically playing the alternate over below the key number of 51 since that is the most common point total of any single score. 

Pick published: Dec 23 3:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 461

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Patriots Over 41.5 -110

Lost: 40 points

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and New England combine for more than 41 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model playable Over/Unders for Week 16.
  • The weather report for Foxboro has improved, with high winds from overnight Friday expected to slow down throughout the day on Saturday, and we've seen the market start to rebound back upward.
  • The Patriots' run game has started to get healthy again, and just had over 200 yards against the Raiders, and they have scored 24 or more in three of the last four games.
  • The Patriots D has feasted on bad quarterbacks, but against some of the top QBs like Joe Burrow has given up points and yards. Over the last eight games, they have given up 30 points per game in games against Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins, and 9 points per game in games against Zach Wilson (2x), Colt McCoy, and Sam Ehrlinger.

Pick published: Dec 23 1:12pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 459

NFL Spread

Panthers +2.5 +100

Won: 37-23

Lions at Panthers

Sat Dec 24 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a pick based on pick popularity data and team trends.
  • Detroit is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data at -2.5 (80% popularity). Over the last five weeks, teams with 75% or higher popularity in spread pools in our data, where the line does not move in that teams favor from the mid-week line, are 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS.
  • The Panthers pass defense has been playing at a high level since Steve Wilks took over as interim coach, and are 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games. 
  • Detroit has turned their season around by winning 6 of 7, but there are a few indicators that show some negative regression potential. They've been outgained by 142 yards over that span, but have benefited from a +9 turnover differential, and have been converting third downs at a high rate, by passing rather than rushing.
  • This is the first time Detroit has been a road favorite since playing at Carolina in 2020. 

 

Pick published: Dec 23 3:20pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 458

NFL Player Prop

Brock Purdy Under 216.5 Passing Yards -114

Lost: 234 yards

Commanders at 49ers

Sat Dec 24 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Brock Purdy passes for fewer than 217 yards in Week 16.

Staff notes:

  • Based on the 37.5 point total and the 7-point spread, our passing projection for this game is about 22 yards below the offered prop line.
  • San Francisco's defense has given up only 11.0 points per game over the last seven games, which leads to lower passing volume in the second half when playing with the lead.
  • After coming off the bench and throwing 37 times, Purdy has 21 and 26 pass attempts in his two starts so far, for 402 total passing yards in those starts. He is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt.
  • Unless the Washington team has an offensive explosion, this feels like another low-volume passing game for the rookie, and he will have to have really high pass efficiency to get over this total.

Pick published: Dec 23 3:29pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Baylor -6.5 -110

Lost: 15-30

Baylor vs. Air Force

Thu Dec 22 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baylor wins by more than 6 points in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model picks for bowl games, with over 55% estimated cover odds.
  • Getting this below the key 7 number early could be important, so shop for your best line. 
  • Air Force ranks 6th for the season in opponent yards per point, and over the last three games ranks best in the nation, with opponents scoring a point for every 33.5 yards gained.
  • This, though, is a potential regression area for Air Force and suggests they've managed to create turnovers or get red zone stops, but the scores are not reflective of how many yards they have surrendered.

Pick published: Dec 5 4:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 228

NCAAF Over/Under

Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose St. Over 53.0 -110

Won: 68 points

Tue Dec 20 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Eastern Michigan and San Jose State combine for more than 53 points in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
  • As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
  • After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
  • The average late December/early January daily high in Boise, Idaho is 36 degrees, the coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Pick published: Dec 5 3:31pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 221

NFL Team Future

Giants Over 7.0 Wins +105

Won: 8 wins as of Week 15.

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Giants win at least 8 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our 2022 regular season projection for the Giants is 7.6 wins.
  • New York's results from last season are dragged down by atrocious play from backup quarterbacks after Daniel Jones was injured, as the team went 0-6 and scored fewer than 10 points a game to end the season.
  • The team average Yards per Attempt was 5.8 overall, but Jones averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.
  • The Giants also had several injuries in the receiving corp that impacted the offense, and Saquon Barkley was not as effective in his first year returning from a knee injury.
  • Finally, while this may be hard to quantify, former coach Joe Judge was a terrible leader, and new head coach Brian Daboll is likely a massive upgrade in both offensive philosophy and overall temperament/leadership.
  • Add all those factors and this is a team that should be better than what the raw numbers from a year ago look like, and could at least bounce back toward respectability.

Pick published: May 13 11:00am ET, available at that time at William Hill.

NCAAF Spread

Marshall -10.0 -110

Won: 28-14

Marshall vs. Connecticut

Mon Dec 19 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marshall wins the game by more than 10 points in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick.
  • As we noted last year in our Bowl Betting Trends article, teams with great spread records in the regular season are actually good teams to go against in bowls.
  • Adding in the 5-1 record last year, going back to 2011, if you had played against every team that had a 75% or better cover record in the season, you would have gone 45-29-1 ATS (61%).
  • Connecticut had an improbably season, making a bowl at 6-6 despite being outscored by over 6 points on average, and going 9-3 ATS.

Pick published: Dec 5 4:09pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 220

NFL Spread

Giants +4.5 -110

Won: 20-12

Giants at Commanders

Sun Dec 18 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 5 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 15.
  • Before last season, we wrote about the lack of home field advantage in NFC East division games. Going back to 2002, home teams had won around 51% of home games, and covered the spread less than 46% of the time. Specific to the Giants-Commanders rivalry, the home team since 2002 is 21-19-1 SU and 18-23 ATS.
  • The teams may look like they are going in opposite directions, but that’s exaggerated by schedule (the Giants have been handled by the Cowboys and Eagles in the last four games) and close game luck.
  • Washington also has extreme fumble luck in their recent run. A lot of their 6-1-1 stretch can be summed up with better turnover luck, and going 4-1-1 in close games.

Pick published: Dec 15 11:41am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 303

NFL Team Future

Steelers Over 5.5 Season Wins +125

Won: 6 wins as of Week 15

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins more than 5 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have started 1-3, and our current automated projection for PIttsburgh is 5.9 wins, already showing some value on the Steelers.
  • In addtion, the team just benched QB Mitch Trubisky at halftime of the loss to the Jets, and put first-round rookie Kenny Pickett in the game. While they haven't announced him as the starter for this week, we anticipate he will be.
  • Trubisky was averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt, and Pittsburgh's season-high in passing yards was 204 with him as starter. 
  • PIckett already, in one half, showed the ability to push the ball down the field and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in his first half playing. He did throw three picks but one was on the final desperation play, and two others were deflected.
  • In addition, the latest news is that T.J. Watt is hoping to return by Week 6, and he is a major difference maker. 
  • With the switch to Pickett opening up the offense more, the potential return of Watt, and head coach Mike Tomlin's history of success, we think there is some value in Pittsburgh being much better in the second half of the season and reaching this low total.

Pick published: Oct 4 10:46am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Lions Under 6.0 Season Wins -115

Lost: 7 wins as of Week 15

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Detroit Lions win fewer than 6 games during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Detroit fell to 1-5 after Sunday's loss to Dallas, and our projection is for Detroit to win 4.8 games this year.
  • Based on our win distribution for Detroit, there is a 66.1% chance of 5 or fewer wins, and another 16.1% chance of exactly 6 wins and a push.
  • With this line at DraftKings set at 6.0 instead of 5.5, it basically means that Detroit has to have a winning record over the final 11 games to result in a loss on the Under.
  • Detroit's offense should see some improvement when they get healthier, as RB D'Andre Swift has missed multiple games, as has WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
  • However, the defense is the worst in the NFL, ranking dead last in points allowed per game, yards per game, and net yards per pass allowed.

Pick published: Oct 24 5:31pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Buccaneers Over 46.5 -110

Won: 57 points

Sun Dec 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Tampa Bay combine for more than 46 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 15.
  • In addition, most of the injury news has gone against both defenses as we approach the game.
  • Cincinnati will be thin in the secondary, as CB Mike Hilton is out and CB Jalen Davis is doubtful, and they will also be missing starting DE Trey Hendrickson.
  • Tampa Bay has several defensive players who are questionable, and will be without DT Vita Vea, DE Carl Nassib, CB Jamel Dean. 

Pick published: Dec 18 11:00am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 327

NFL Player Prop

Desmond Ridder Over 0.5 interceptions -138

Lost: 0 Interceptions

Falcons at Saints

Sun Dec 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Desmond Ridder throws at least one interception in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • Desmond Ridder is making his first career start for Atlanta, after being drafted in the 3rd round of this year's NFL Draft.
  • Going back to 2010, 16 rookies made their first start in Week 10 or later, who were drafted outside the first two rounds. Eleven of them threw at least one interception, and six of them threw multiple interceptions in their debut.

Pick published: Dec 18 10:51am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Southern Methodist -4.0 -110

Lost: 23-24

Southern Methodist vs. Brigham Young

Sat Dec 17 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Southern Methodist wins the game by more than 4 points in the New Mexico Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for the New Mexico Bowl.
  • All indications are that BYU QB Jaren Hall will miss this game after suffering a November injury.
  • BYU is 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games after starting the year 2-0. 

Pick published: Dec 17 10:17am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 210

NFL Spread

Colts +3.5 -110

Won: 36-39

Colts at Vikings

Sat Dec 17 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model spread pick but is a pick based on team trends and public popularity.
  • Minnesota is the second-most popular spread pick all season, according to our pool pick data, at 83% on the opening Minnesota -4.5 line.
  • So far this year, when a team has had 75%+ spread popularity according to our public pick pool data, and the point spread line has still moved against them, they are 5-10 ATS and only 7-8 SU (all as favorites).
  • Minnesota has now been outscored.(by 1 point) on the year despite having a 10-3 record, and ranks dead last in yards allowed. They have allowed 800 more yards than they have gained so far this year, so that their points profile is actually better than the underlying play.
  • Minnesota has allowed five straight opponents to have over 400 total yards and over 300 net passing yards.
  • While the Colts' offense hasn't been great, it's been dependent on schedule, where they played a lot of tough defenses. The four best yardage games have come against teams ranking in the bottom 10 overall in defensive yards allowed, and Matt Ryan and the passing game should have way more opportunities than normal.

Pick published: Dec 16 1:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 307

NCAAF Spread

Oregon St. -7.0 -112

Won: 30-3

Florida vs. Oregon St.

Sat Dec 17 • 2:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon State wins the Las Vegas Bowl by more than 7 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick but is a play based on player news and trends.
  • Florida QB Anthony Richardson has already announced he is sitting out the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft, and this line could continue to move if more Florida players join Richardson.
  • Oregon State is 10-2 ATS this year and has covered six straight games by an average of 10 points. Even though we might ordinarily fade a team with a gaudy record ATS, the Richardson news is early and we are grabbing line value in this matchup.
  • This game is being played in Las Vegas, giving Oregon State a rare travel advantage over an SEC team, who typically play in their home region.

Pick published: Dec 5 1:27pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 216

NCAAF Over/Under

Cincinnati vs. Louisville Over 45.0 -110

Lost: 31 points

Sat Dec 17 • 11:00am ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Louisville combine for more than 45 points in the Fenway Bowl.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a staff pick play based on bowl game trends.
  • As we noted in our 2021 Bowl Betting article, bowl games played at venues where the average temperature during bowl season is below 50 degrees go over at a high rate. 
  • After a 4-1 Over rate last bowl season, since 2008, the Over has hit 65% of the time (50-27) in these cold weather bowl games.
  • The average late December/early January daily high in Boston, Massachusetts is 38 degrees, the second-coldest bowl game venue in the country.

Pick published: Dec 5 3:33pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 206

NFL Over/Under

49ers at Seahawks Under 43.0 -110

Won: 34 points

Thu Dec 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: San Francisco and Seattle combine for fewer than 42 points in Week 15.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Under pick according to our models. 
  • San Francisco's defense has been dominant, not allowing more than 17 points in the last six games played, and averaging 10.7 points allowed.
  • Recent 49ers games have gone over because of their offense, but injuries could impact some of that.
  • QB Brock Purdy, who replaced the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, is questionable for tonight with an oblique strain, and didn't finish Sunday's game. Recently signed Josh Johnson could be the fourth QB to start for SF this year.
  • Star WR and all-around weapon Deebo Samuel also suffered an injury and is out.
  • Seattle should have RB Kenneth Walker back, but SF has been dominant against the rush, ranking 1st in yards per carry and rush yards allowed, and has been even better over the last six against the run. 

Pick published: Dec 15 10:37am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 302

NFL Player Future

Justin Jefferson At Least One 200-Yard Receiving Game +550

Won: 223 yards in Week 14

Minnesota Vikings

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Justin Jefferson has at least one 200-yard receiving game in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • 200-Yard Receiving Games are relatively rare (47 in the last 10 seasons, according to Pro Football Reference) but we still see value on playing these two props in unison.
  • Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are consensus WR2 and WR3 in fantasy football rankings entering 2022, and at ages 23 and 22, respectively, entering the season, have lots of big play upside.
  • Jefferson has never had a 200-yard game so far in two seasons (181 is his career high) while Chase had two of them as a rookie, including a 266-yard game against the Chiefs.
  • Over the last decade, wide receivers who were ranked in the top 5 in consensus fantasy rankings entering the season have accounted for 14 of the 200-yard receiving games, among 13 different player-seasons (Calvin Johnson did it twice in 2012).
  • That means in the last 10 years, wide receivers with preseason expectations like Jefferson and Chase achieved a 200-yard receiving game in 26% of seasons (13 of 50).
  • If we use that as a baseline expectation, that means there is value at about +300 for each player.
  • By playing them together, you have about a 50% chance of hitting on at least one of them this season.

Pick published: Aug 4 12:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Team Future

Ravens Over 2.5 AFC North Division Wins -180

Won: 3 division wins as of 12/11

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Ravens win at least 3 divison games against AFC North opponents in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • The AFC North Division wins market is only available at Caesars/William Hill Sportsbook as most books are not offering that division right now because of Cleveland QB uncertainty.
  • Baltimore had been one of the best teams in the AFC the previous two seasons, but in 2021 they were ravaged by injuries, which included all of their running backs being injured pre-season, and Lamar Jackson missing the last five games of the season. So there's an injury bounce-back and value with Baltimore.
  • Baltimore's season win total (9.5, with odds ranging from -130 to -150 on Over) is a little less attractive than the division win prop at Caesars, since the latter is more of a concentrated play against the Browns' situation, as games against the Browns make up one-third of the outcome.
  • We project the odds that the Ravens win the AFC North (35.6% and potentially higher) as greater than their odds of winning fewer than three AFC North games (less than 30% based on our current game projections) and see value on both of these correlated plays.

Pick published: Jun 9 4:00pm ET, available at that time at William Hill.

NFL Spread

Panthers +4.0 -110

Won: 30-24

Panthers at Seahawks

Sun Dec 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model pick, but is a pick based on team trends and against public popularity.
  • Seattle is the most popular spread pick in our public pool pick data all year in the NFL, with 82% of the public taking Seattle.
  • Since head coach Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over, the Panthers are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS
  • Carolina’s defense (and particularly the pass defense) has been very good over the last seven games. Opposing starting QBs are averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt since Wilks took over coaching duties. Carolina has held five of the last six opponents under 350 yards in regulation, with the only exception being the Bengals.
  • Seattle, meanwhile, has underperformed point spread expectations in its last three games. On offense, running back Kenneth Walker sustained an injury in the last game and will miss this game, as will backup Deejay Dallas. 
  • The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed, and nearly allowed a limited Rams team with backups at key positions on offense to score 27 points last week.

Pick published: Dec 11 9:25am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 121

NFL Over/Under

Vikings at Lions Under 52.5 -106

Lost: 57 points

Sun Dec 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota and Detroit combine for fewer than 53 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model Over/Under pick for Week 14, and the highest-rated cover odds play all season in the NFL.
  • Minnesota and Detroit both rank in the top 5 in yards per point (scoring more than expected based on yards gained on offense) for the full season, and also in the most recent three games, providing an area of regression against this high total.

Pick published: Dec 7 12:01pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 106

NFL Spread

Browns +5.5 -110

Lost: 10-23

Browns at Bengals

Sun Dec 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game or lose by fewer than 6 points in Week 14.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in Week 14.
  • The Browns defensive front has had success against the Bengals with Joe Burrow, sacking him 17 times in 4 games, including 5 in the earlier Browns win as an underdog this season.

Pick published: Dec 11 9:37am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 113

NCAAF Over/Under

Navy vs. Army Under 33.5 -110

Lost: 37 points

Sat Dec 10 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Army and Navy combine for fewer than 34 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our models.
  • Here's a mind-blowing trend stat: since 2010, in games involving two service academies (Army, Navy, or Air Force), the Under is 31-4.
  • The last time that the Army-Navy game went Over was in December of 2005.
  • Army, Navy, and Air Force are the only teams in FBS who run the triple option offense, which can give them a uniqueness advantage in one week of preparation against other schools. But when they play each other, their defenses are used to facing these offenses in practice all year.

Pick published: Dec 4 8:03am ET, available at that time at PointsBet, FanDuel.

Rot# 104

NFL Player Prop

Geno Smith Under 247.5 Passing Yards -110

Lost: 367 yards

Seahawks at Rams

Sun Dec 4 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Geno Smith passes for fewer than 248 passing yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • The total in this game is only 41 points, and with the Rams expected to struggle to score points, that should impact how aggressive Seattle is.
  • With DT Aaron Donald out, expect Seattle to run the ball with Kenneth Walker at a high rate if playing with the lead.
  • Our passing model sees about 30 yards of value on the Under in this game.
  • Geno Smith's passing over/unders have been correlated with Seattle's wins or losses. He has gone Under his passing total in 4 of 6 wins, and over in 4 of 5 losses.

Pick published: Dec 4 9:55am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Team Future

Clemson To Miss CFB Playoff -175

Won

2022-2023 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Clemson is not selected to play in the 2022-23 College Football Playoff.

Staff notes:

  • Clemson is fourth in our power rankings, but is a distant fourth and a lot closer to a host of other teams in the tier after the clear top 3 of Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia.
  • We project Clemson to have a 41% of winning the ACC this year, but they will not make the CFB Playoffs in all those scenarios.
  • It is also extremely unlikely that Clemson makes the playoffs if they don't win the ACC title, compared to champs from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12, and the top non-champs from the SEC and Big Ten.
  • The Clemson schedule isn't particularly tough, but they do travel to Notre Dame non-conference, in what is likely a must-win to make the playoffs, because it would be their best quality win.
  • So we see a lot of outs here, from Clemson again struggling at QB and not bouncing back, to losing multiple games in the regular season, to losing at Notre Dame or in the ACC title game.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Team Future

Oklahoma St. To Make CFB Playoff +2400

Lost

2022-2023 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Oklahoma State plays in the 2022-23 College Football Playoffs.

Staff notes:

  • This is a true long-shot pick, so you may want to reduce the unit size and make it a half-unit play.
  • That said, there is value on this line offered at FanDuel, where Oklahoma State has the 20th-best odds to reach the playoffs.
  • The Cowboys are ninth in our preseason rankings, and part of the same tier as several teams given much better odds to make the playoffs.
  • While they did lose a couple of key defensive players who were drafted late in the NFL Draft, they aren't replacing elite talent on a team that ranked in the top 10 defensively a year ago.
  • Our projections give Oklahoma State about an 4% chance of going 13-0. But we also project about an additional 9% chance of being a 12-1 Big 12 champ, a situation that would also have them very much in the mix for being selected to the playoffs.
  • Oklahoma, the preseason conference favorite, is also going through a big transition with the departure of head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler, and there is value in longer-tail outcomes going against them rebounding to a national contender themselves.
  • If you want to take a slightly less longer shot play, you can get Oklahoma State +550 to win the Big 12, a line where we also show some value.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Spread

Seahawks -7.5 -110

Lost: 27-23

Seahawks at Rams

Sun Dec 4 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins the game by more than 7 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick for Week 13.
  • The Rams have a host of key injuries and because of draft pick trades and roster construction are not a deep team. 
  • Star DT Aaron Donald now has what is believed to be a high ankle sprain, QB Matthew Stafford has had two concussinos in a month, WR Cooper Kupp is on IR, and WR Allen Robinson was just declared out for the year.
  • In last week's game with Bryce Perkins at QB, the Rams had only 198 total yards, and averaged less than 3 net yards per pass.
  • Seattle has lost the last two games, but they were in close contests and Seattle will have a significant offensive edge going against the Rams' poor offensive line, likely backup quarterbacks, and the two best receivers out for LA.

Pick published: Nov 29 3:52pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 467

NFL Over/Under

Packers at Bears Over 44.5 -110

Won: 47 points

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Green Bay and Chicago combine for more than 44 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model play, but is a play based on player news and trends.
  • Chicago QB Justin Fields has practiced each of the last two days and does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's contest, returning after missing last week.
  • The Bears have gone Over in 6 straight games, since they switched the offense to more of a run-based style like the Ravens to take advantage of Fields' skills.
  • The Bears' defense has allowed 27 or more points in five straight games since trading away LB Roquan Smith and are arguably the weakest defense in the NFL right now.
  • The Bears have scored 24 points or more in Fields' last five games, and he has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of them.
  • The Packers have put up 380 or more yards in four of their last five games, but have underachieved in scoring.
  • Green Bay ranks 31st in rush yards allowed and 29th in rush yards per attempt (5.0) particularly struggling in games against mobile QBs.

Pick published: Dec 2 4:50pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 465

NFL Player Prop

Christian Kirk Over 60.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 104 yards

Jaguars at Lions

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Christian Kirk has more than 60 receiving yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing projection model shows value on the Over in passing in this game for Jacksonville with the high point total and close game spread between the Jags and Lions.
  • Kirk has accounted for 27% of Jacksonville's receiving yards this year, and we project the Jags for over 270 passing yards in this game.
  • The Detroit Lions have struggled with wide receivers recently, with 7 different WRs getting 75 or more yards in their last 5 games.
  • That includes several slot receivers posting big numbers, and Kirk is moved around in the Jacksonville offense and lines up in the slot on a good percentage of snaps.

Pick published: Dec 4 10:08am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Russell Wilson Under 224.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 189 yards

Broncos at Ravens

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Russell Wilson passes for fewer than 225 yards in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • The Denver Broncos are projected to score only 15.25 points this week, based on the 40 point total and being a 9.5 point underdog, and this passing total provides over 30 yards of value for that point expectation.
  • Wilson is coming off a season-low 142 passing yards against Carolina as the Denver offense continues to struggle.

Pick published: Dec 4 9:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Spread

Texans +7.0 -105

Lost: 14-27

Browns at Texans

Sun Dec 4 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is our hgihest-rated playable spread pick for NFL Week 13.
  • The Cleveland Browns have actually been pretty good on offense with Jacoby Brissett at QB, ranking 5th in yards per game, while the defense has been below average in most categories.
  • QB Deshaun Watson is expected to make his first career start with the Browns after an 11-game suspension for his off-field conduct, after sitting out all of the 2021 season.
  • His first start comes in Houston, where he played, and there are emotional factors at play in addtion to the questions about Watson in a game for first time in nearly two years.

Pick published: Nov 29 3:26pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 464

NCAAF Spread

Louisiana St. +17.5 -110

Lost: 30-50

Louisiana St. vs. Georgia

Sat Dec 3 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU wins the SEC title game or loses by fewer than 18 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable model spread pick at +17.5, though we do have a model lean (51.4%) on LSU in this matchup.
  • LSU is coming off a poor performance at Texas A&M in a loss that ended their outside chances to make the CFB playoff, but have played better recently, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS (covering by 12.4 on average) in the previous five games.
  • Conference Champ game underdogs of between 14.5 and 21 points are 3-11 SU but 11-3 ATS over the last 20 years. 

Pick published: Nov 28 1:58pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 317

NCAAF Spread

Tulane -3.5 -105

Won: 45-28

Central Florida at Tulane

Sat Dec 3 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tulane wins the game by more than 3 points in the American Conference Championship.

Staff notes:

  • This is currently our top-rated spread pick for the Conference Championship games.
  • Tulane is 10-2 SU and ATS, and their only loss and non-cover in conference play was against Central Florida by 7 points in a game they lost the turnover margin 2-to-0.
  • UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee had the big 67-yard TD scramble (and rushed for 176 yards total) that was a difference in the first game against Tulane, but has battled injuries and left the last two games for UCF with shoulder and hamstring injuries, as UCF has failed to cover by double digits in both (loss to Navy, win over South Florida).

Pick published: Nov 28 1:06pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 314

NCAAF Moneyline

Ohio To Win +105

Lost: 7-17

Toledo vs. Ohio

Sat Dec 3 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Ohio wins the MAC title game against Toledo.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread and moneyline pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, though we prefer to just take the moneyline here since the spread is only 1.5 points.
  • These are two teams going in opposite directions, as Ohio is a perfect 8-0 ATS in MAC play after a slow start to the season, while Toledo has closed by going 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS to close conference play.
  • Toledo's star QB DeQuan Finn's shoulder injury is a big part of that slide, as he missed two games with the injury, and tried to come back and play last week but had his worst performance all year, going 5-for-11 for only 35 yards and two interceptions in the loss to Western Michigan.

Pick published: Nov 28 1:17pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 310

NFL Player Prop

Josh Allen Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts -105

Won: 8 rush attempts

Bills at Patriots

Thu Dec 1 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Josh Allen rushes the ball more than 7 times in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • Josh Allen has rushed the ball an average of 7.3 attempts per game, and had over 7.5 rush attempts in exactly half of his games over the last two seasons.
  • However, he runs more in games that are expected to be closer contests. In 15 games where the Bills were favored by less than seven points over that span, he has averaged 8.8 rush attempts and had at least 8 attempts in 10 of 15 games.
  • He's had double digit rush attempts in four games this year and all four were on the road.
  • This is a big game for Buffalo's division winning chances and playoff seeding chances playing at fellow AFC East opponent New England, and we project Allen will be more willing to run in this game to sustain drives.

Pick published: Dec 1 12:29pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAB Over/Under

Wake Forest at Wisconsin Over 129.5 -114

Won: 153 points

Tue Nov 29 • 9:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Wake Forest and Wisconsin combine for more than 129 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated Over/Under play for Tuesday in college basketball.
  • Wisconsin rates much better on defense and is 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed, but has room for both positive regression in their two-point and offensive shooting (where they are bottom 15 in the nation at 39% shooting inside the arc) and their opponent 3-point shooting (only 23% made against Wisconsin so far).
  • Wisconsin's opponents have also been poorer shooting teams on average so far, and Wake Forest has a hgher effective shooting percentage than any of them.
  • Wisconsin has played several teams with great interior defense and shot blocking, and Wake is the first opponent in last 4 games who rates outside top 75 in block rate and opponent two-point shooting allowed. 

Pick published: Nov 29 11:01am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 633

NFL Team Future

Vikings Over 8.5 Wins -130

Won: 9-2 after Week 12

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Vikings win at least 9 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for the Vikings is 8.9 wins in 2022.
  • Vikings lines have moved up at some sports books, where they are now 9.0 wins with slight juice on the Over, but you can still get 8.5 at FanDuel (-130) and PointsBet (-135).
  • This is playable based both on the extra half win compared to the market (with the juice not totally counteracting that), and on head coaching trends.
  • In our fantasy football team projections, the Vikings' most similar teams included those with a new head coach, established pocket quarterback, and similar passing and points allowed numbers the year before.
  • The 25 most similar teams went 15-8-2 against the Over/Under, and the six most similar went 4-1-1, with the only non-cover missing by 0.5 win and finishing 8-8.
  • In our win totals research, teams with a first-time head coach (particularly younger head coaches) and teams where the previous coach had been there five or more years (and thus there was stability) outperformed expectations.
  • First-time head coaches (2003-2021) are 49-37-3 (56.5%) against the Over/Under.
  • Coaches taking over a team when the previous head coach had been in place for five or more years are 25-15-1 (62.2%) since 2003.
  • After two consecutive years of just missing the playoffs, the Vikings replaced Mike Zimmer, who had been in Minnesota since 2014, with 37-year-old Kevin O'Connell, who comes from Sean McVay's offensive staff.

Pick published: Jun 2 12:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Team Future

Buccaneers Under 11.5 Wins -110

Won: 5-6 after Week 12

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: The Buccaneers win fewer than 12 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Tampa Bay is projected for 11.0 wins by our models, showing value on the Under.
  • In addition, there is a lot of offensive uncertainty and turnover with the receiving group, with key injuries and new faces compared to last season, in light of Chris Godwin returning from a knee injury and Rob Gronkowski's retirement.
  • Addendum on 8/1: Pro bowl center Ryan Jensen suffered a significant injury that could keep him out for months, creating even more potential issues on offense.

Pick published: Jun 23 3:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Future

Jaylen Waddle Over 925.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 963 yards after Week 12

Miami Dolphins

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Jaylen Waddle has at least 926 receiving yards in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our projection for Waddle is 1053 receiving yards, about 128 yards of value.
  • Yes, Miami acquired Tyreek Hill and that will eat into Waddle's target share some, but it will also likely lead to expanded overall receiving numbers and better coverage situations.
  • Waddle had over 100 receptions in 2021 as a rookie despite missing a game, so even a slight regression in receptions can still hit this number, if his yards per catch bumps up.
  • Last year, Waddle averaged only 9.8 yards per catch, however, that was dragged down by 5.5 games with Jacoby Brissett at QB where he averaged a paltry 8.0 yards per reception and had fewer receptions per game.
  • Given his historical comps and his draft status as well as his rookie year production, we are projecting this total as a value on Waddle.

Pick published: Jul 7 11:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Patrick Mahomes Under 288.5 Passing Yards -110

Lost: 320 yards

Rams at Chiefs

Sun Nov 27 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Patrick Mahomes passes for fewer than 289 yards in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • Mahomes has had 290 or more passing yards in six straight, explaining the high total, but this is a pick based on the huge spread and low Rams' expected point total based on starting a third-string QB. 
  • That could impact Mahomes' passing volume and pushing ball down the field, as the Rams' offense will be limited and the Chiefs will likely recognize that the Rams likely need to create turnovers to succeed.
  • Our passing model projects 20 yards of value on this under based on the likely game script and spread in this game.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:35am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Spread

Jaguars +4.0 -110

Won: 28-27

Ravens at Jaguars

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick for Week 12 according to our models.
  • Baltimore's passing offense has been impacted by injuries after a hot start, and Lamar Jackson has had only six touchdown passes in his last seven games, and has been under 7.0 yards per attempt in six of seven.
  • Jacksonville is only 1-6 in close games but has outscored opponents on the year, and the only game they lost by more than 8 was in the last game at KC before the bye.
  • Jacksonville has poor fumble recovery luck (35%) and a poor turnover margin in the last seven games, providing some positive regression potential our models are picking up.

Pick published: Nov 23 1:02pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 252

NFL Over/Under

Broncos at Panthers Over 35.0 -110

Lost: 33 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Carolina combine for more than 35 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under model pick for Week 12.
  • This is the lowest NFL total since Baltimore-Pittsburgh was also 35 in Week 17 of 2019, and the lowest total in a non-final regular season week game since Cleveland-Pittsburgh (33.5) in Week 12 of 2012.
  • Since 2010, games with an Over/Under of 36.0 or lower have gone Over 16 times versus 8 Unders.

Pick published: Nov 21 5:23pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 253

NFL Over/Under

Buccaneers at Browns Over 42.5 -110

Lost: 40 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tampa Bay and Cleveland combine for more than 42 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated playable model pick for NFL Over/Unders in Week 12.
  • Tampa Bay has gone Under in 8 of 10 games but Cleveland games have gone Over 7 times, Under 2 times, and one push.
  • Tampa Bay ranks 29th and Cleveland 22nd in yards per point scored, so both have underperformed their point expectation based on yards gained through 11 weeks.
  • Tampa Bay has struggled to run the ball this year, ranking 32nd in rush yards and yards per carry, but had their season-high in the win over Seattle before the bye, with rookie RB Rachaad White having his first career 100-yard game. 
  • The Bucs have battled offensive injuries all year, but are arguably the healthiest they have been on offense so far this year coming off the bye week.
     

Pick published: Nov 22 7:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 257

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Titans Over 43.0 -110

Lost: 36 points

Sun Nov 27 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Tennessee combine for more than 43 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is out for the game, which should drive Cincinnati to be more pass-heavy than normal with Samaje Perine and Chris Evans as the backs. 
  • The matchup also dictates that Cincinnati will probably want to try to pass the ball against Tennessee's defensive front.
  • The Titans' defensive front is capable of sacks and creating turnovers, while the Bengals can create big plays, both outcomes which can drive points in this game.
  • The Titans are finally getting healthier in the pasising game, and Ryan Tannehill just had a season-high 333 passing yards in the last game against Green Bay.

Pick published: Nov 27 10:27am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 259

NCAAF Team Future

Texas Under 8.5 Regular Season Wins -125

Won: 8-4 record

2022-2023 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Texas wins fewer than 9 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Texas has the biggest discrepancy between our projections (7.3) and the betting market win total (8.5).
  • The Longhorns have repeatedly been ranked highly in recent preseasons and underperformed, and thus aren't rated as highly as their reputation in our program ratings.
  • Texas has reached nine wins (including bowl games) only once in the last nine seasons.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Team Future

Arkansas Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins -150

Won: 6-6 record

2022-2023 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: Arkansas wins fewer than 8 games in the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Arkansas is projected for 6.4 wins in our preseason predictions, and we give them only a 33.6% chance of exceeding 8 wins this regular season.
  • The Razorbacks finally had a good season last year (in head coach Sam Pittman's second year with the program) after several poor seasons, as they went 8-4 before winning their bowl game.
  • Arkansas faces a much tougher non-conference schedule this year, in addition to a loaded SEC West, as they play Cincinnati, BYU, and Liberty. (Last year, they beat Texas on a neutral field but otherwise had three home games against a FCS team and two bottom 20 FBS teams.)
  • Arkansas also must replace several key players, including WR Treylon Burks, who had over 1,100 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns for a team where no one else reached 400 yards or scored more than two touchdowns.

Pick published: Aug 25 3:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Spread

Kansas St. -11.5 -110

Won: 47-27

Kansas at Kansas St.

Sat Nov 26 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas State wins the game by more than 11 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has this as a playable spread pick at 53.5% cover odds.
  • Our predictive power ratings have Kansas State up to No. 8, after starting the year at No. 31.
  • Kansas State has covered 3 of the last 4, and has outperformed the spread by 20 points on average over the last month.
  • Kansas started the year 5-0 SU and ATS but has closed 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS, failing to cover the last two by double digits and coming off a 41-point loss to Texas.
  • Kansas State is playing to reach the Big 12 title game with a victory in this game and get a rematch against TCU.

Pick published: Nov 21 2:57pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 140

NCAAF Spread

Oregon St. +3.0 -110

Won: 38-34

Oregon at Oregon St.

Sat Nov 26 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Oregon State wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick in the "Civil War" rivalry game between Oregon and Oregon State.
  • While Oregon has been hot for the most part since their opening loss to Georgia, it is Oregon State with the better overall spread record (9-2) and better performances over the last month, as they have covered each of the last five games, by an average of 11 points.
  • Oregon State has a decided advantage as a home underdog in pass defense, where they rank 12th nationally at 6.1 yards per attempt allowed, while Oregon is 84th nationally.

Pick published: Nov 25 11:56am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 126

NCAAF Spread

UAB -17.5 -110

Lost: 37-27

UAB at Louisiana Tech

Sat Nov 26 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UAB wins by more than 17 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for this week in college football.
  • Louisiana Tech starting QB Parker McNeil has missed the last two games, after returning for one game against Middle Tennessee.
  • Louisiana Tech is 0-3 SU and ATS in games started by freshman Landry Lyddy, failing to cover by an average of 16 points.

Pick published: Nov 21 3:37pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 209

NCAAF Moneyline

Louisville To Win +145

Lost: 13-26

Louisville at Kentucky

Sat Nov 26 • 3:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Louisville wins the game against Kentucky.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline model pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, and is playable across all our models (predictive rating, Decision Tree, and similar games).
  • Though Kentucky was the higher rated team entering the season, Louisville is now rated higher (No. 21, +12.1) than Kentucky (No. 41, +7.1) in our power ratings.
  • Louisville has won and covered 5 of the last 6 games, winning all 5 by at least 14 points.
  • Kentucky is 2-5 over the last 7 games, including 0-2 as a betting favorite.
  • The line may be influenced by recent series history in the Governor's Cup, as Kentucky has won the last three games in blowouts and Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is 0-3 against Mark Stoops.

Pick published: Nov 21 4:41pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 159

NCAAF Spread

Missouri +3.5 -110

Won: 29-27

Arkansas at Missouri

Fri Nov 25 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 13.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models, with 53.5% cover odds.
  • Missouri will be playing for bowl eligibility at home against Arkansas in this season finale rivalry game. 
  • It's a battle of the better defense (Missouri) against better offense (Arkansas), but Arkansas' pass defense ranks in the bottom 20 in yards per attempt, and is coming off giving up over 700 yards in the win over Ole Miss (where they had a 3-to-0 turnover margin).

Pick published: Nov 25 11:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 128

NFL Player Prop

Tony Pollard Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -120

Lost: 60 yards

Giants at Cowboys

Thu Nov 24 • 4:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tony Pollard rushes for more than 61 yards in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • Tony Pollard has had 80+ rushing yards in each of the last four games.
  • Even in the last game against Minnesota with Ezekiel Elliott returning, Pollard had as many rushing attempts as Elliott (15) and nearly doubled him up in rushing yards (80 to 42).
  • Pollard also put up over 100 receiving yards last week and is Dallas' best playmaker, and we don't think his role diminishes in this Thanksgiving spotlight game.
  • Our team projection for Dallas overall rushing yards is 137.5 based on the spread and over/under, so Pollard would have to account for less than half that projection to hit this Over.

Pick published: Nov 24 10:11am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 31.5 Pass Attempts -105

Won: 29 attempts

49ers vs. Cardinals

Mon Nov 21 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jimmy Garoppolo attempts fewer than 32 pass attempts in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • With the news that Arizona QB Kyler Murray is out and Colt McCoy is starting, the spread has moved to -10 for San Francisco.
  • Based on our passing model, using the spread/total and San Francisco's pass-run splits, we project Jimmy Garoppolo for 28.5 attempts, three attempts of value.
  • Since the start of the 2020 season, Garoppolo has thrown fewer than 31 pass attempts in 7 of 8 games where the 49ers were favored by 6 or more points entering the contest, as San Francisco tends to pass at lower volume when expected to win.
  • We also show value on the passing yards under, but that one is more vulnerable to big plays with yards after catch from San Francisco playmakers even if they pass at lower volume.

Pick published: Nov 21 11:39am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Chiefs at Chargers Over 52.0 -110

Won: 57 points

Sun Nov 20 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas City and the LA Chargers combine for more than 52 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our second-highest Over/Under model pick for Week 11 in the NFL.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders with estimated cover odds of 55% have gone 9-2-1 and playable Over/Unders have gone 32-19-3.
  • The Chargers should have both starting WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup, and the two haven't played most of a game together since Week 1.
  • Neither has played the last two weeks (and Allen only briefly in Game 7 since Week 1), and the Chargers went Under in both of the last two games.
  • The Chiefs also went Under the last two weeks, in two home games where they were bigger favorites, but are 3-1 on Overs on the road this year.

Pick published: Nov 20 8:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 469

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Steelers Over 39.5 -114

Won: 67 points

Sun Nov 20 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh combine for more than 39 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated Over/Under model pick for Week 11 in the NFL.
  • So far this year, Over/Unders with estimated cover odds of 55% have gone 9-2-1 and playable Over/Unders have gone 32-19-3.
  • Cincinnati has had two of its highest yardage games in the last three games.
  • Pittsburgh, coming off its bye with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, had its highest yardage and first down total this year.
  • In the first matchup this year, Pittsburgh's defense created 5 turnovers, and Cincinnati managed only 20 points despite 432 total yards. 
  • The weather forecast for this game is cold, but no precipitation and moderate wind, so not conditions that should impact scoring. 

Pick published: Nov 20 8:40am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 473

NFL Spread

Steelers +5.0 -107

Lost: 30-37

Bengals at Steelers

Sun Nov 20 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Pittsburgh wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Week 11 in the NFL right now.
  • Pittsburgh just got DE T.J. Watt back last week, for the first time since his performance in the upset against the Bengals in Week 1, and held the Saints to 10 points and generated 2 turnovers (after having none in previous three games.)
  • The Steelers are 9-6-1 in games Watt plays over the last two years, and 1-8 in games he has missed.
  • The Bengals' offensive performances have been correlated with the quality, or lack thereof, of the defensive fronts they have faced, as the Cincinnati offensive line can struggle against good pass rushers, but Joe Burrow and company can exploit weaker defenses with time to throw.

Pick published: Nov 15 9:49am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 474

NFL Spread

Bears +3.0 -110

Push: 24-27

Bears at Falcons

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chicago wins the game or loses by fewer than 3 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a playable spread pick according to our model but is a staff play based on team trends.
  • Chicago has lost three straight games, including two close losses in the last two weeks, but has scored 31 points per game over the last four weeks, after embracing using QB Justin Fields as more of a designed runner.
  • Atlanta's offense is going the other way, as they have finished with 315 or fewer yards in 5 of the last 6 games. They have also been outgained by over 800 yards this year, and have finished with fewer total yards than the opponent in 9 straight games.
  • Atlanta's defense is not good, ranking 31st in total yards, and while they have been relatively better against the run than the pass, they haven't played any running quarterbacks this year.
  • So while Chicago's defense has also struggled recently, the offense is rolling and we'll take the much better offense getting points.

Pick published: Nov 15 10:13am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 465

NFL Player Prop

Justin Fields to Score a TD +110

Won: 4-yard rush TD

Bears at Falcons

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields scores a rushing or receiving TD in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • Justin Fields has scored six rushing touchdowns this year, scoring in exactly half the Bears' games so far.
  • However, since the team switched the offense to a more "Ravens-style" approach to put utilize Fields as a runner more, four weeks ago, he has averaged 12.5 rush attempts, 116.7 rush yards, and scored in every game. 
  • Bears RB Khalil Herbert, second on the team with four rushing touchdowns, was recently placed on IR, further increasing Fields' role as a likely runner near the goal line.
  • Atlanta is 31st in total yards allowed and 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed (13). 

Pick published: Nov 20 9:16am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Under 238.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 190 yards

Eagles at Colts

Sun Nov 20 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jalen Hurts passes for fewer than 239 yards in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • Our Over/Under models have this game as a playable Under, and our passing yards model also shows Under value on this passing total given the spread/total and Philadelphia pass splits.
  • Hurts started the year with three straight games with over 30 pass attempts, but has only attempted that many once in the last six games, so he more than likely needs to have high efficiency to hit this number.
  • The Eagles just lost TE Dallas Goedert, who was placed on the IR, and that could also impact Hurts' efficiency.
  • Coming off the first loss of the season, we also expect the Eagles to try to get Hurts going as a runner again, as he has failed to top 30 rushing yards in each of the last four games.

Pick published: Nov 20 9:25am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Massachusetts +33.5 -105

Won: 3-20

Massachusetts at Texas A&M

Sat Nov 19 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Massachusetts wins the game or loses by fewer than 34 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • Texas A&M is in free-fall and the fanbase is restless as a program that entered the year highly-rated has now lost six straight games (1-4-1 ATS over that span). 
  • Massachusetts is our 130th team in FBS (which is why the spread is as high as it is) but is dead-last in our Yards per Point difference stat, which can also capture some luck factors if a team is underperforming in scoring differential relative to the yards gained and allowed. 
  • UMass is coming off a 33-35 loss at Arkansas State, where they scored their season-high in points, and outgained Arkansas State 475 to 275.

Pick published: Nov 18 3:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 371

NCAAF Spread

Western Kentucky +5.5 -110

Lost: 17-41

Western Kentucky at Auburn

Sat Nov 19 • 3:01pm ET

More info

How it wins: Western Kentucky wins the game or loses by fewer than 6 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Our public pick data for pick'em pools shows the public is heavily on Auburn in this one, with only 6% picking Western Kentucky to win. So far this year when the difference between our estimated win odds and public pick rate in game winner pools is >30%, the unpopular side is 9-4 ATS.
  • Auburn is coming off their first win under interim coach Carnell Williiams, over Texas A&M, 13-10.
  • Western Kentucky, meanwhile, is one of the more explosive and pass-heavy offenses in college football, and has covered their last two games by a combined 59 points.

Pick published: Nov 18 2:49pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 365

NCAAF Over/Under

Southern California at UCLA Under 75.5 -110

Lost: 93 points

Sat Nov 19 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: USC and UCLA combine for fewer than 76 points in Week 12.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated college football over/under for Week 12.
  • This is also one of the highest totals so far this year, and when totals are at 70 or higher so far this season, the under is 13-6 (68.4%).
  • USC is 6th in yards per point and UCLA is 28th in yards per point, so any slight regression there provides value against this big number.

Pick published: Nov 15 9:17am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 392

NFL Spread

Commanders +11.0 -110

Won: 32-21

Commanders at Eagles

Mon Nov 14 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game or loses by fewer than 11 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated spread model pick for Week 10 at +10.5, but you can also still find it for +11 at some books.
  • Before the 2021 season, we wrote about the small home field advantage in the NFC East divisional games, and adding in the results since then, home teams in games involving New York/Philadelphia/Washington are 52-68-2 ATS (43.4%) since 2002.
  • Philadelphia's turnover margin per game (+1.9) is more than double any other team this year and a possible source for regression, since only one team since 1978 (Washington, 1983) has finished with a better turnover margin than that over a full season.
  • Washington has played better on defense since their first loss to Philadelphia, holding 5 of the last 6 opponents under 325 total yards.

     

Pick published: Nov 8 10:42am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 265

NFL Over/Under

Cowboys at Packers Over 42.5 -110

Won: 59 points

Sun Nov 13 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas and Green Bay combine for more than 42 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model over/under play for Week 10, with 57.5% cover odds.
  • In addition, Green Bay just lost arguably their best defender, Rashan Gary, to a season-ending injury.
  • Dallas, after playing more conservatively and relying on the defense while QB Dak Prescott was out, started to show their offensive explosiveness in their last game before the bye, hitting their season high in points, yards, passing yards, and rushing yards against the Bears.
  • Green Bay significantly underperformed their expected points last week, as Aaron Rodgers threw two costly interceptions, and the Packers only managed 9 points while gaining 389 yards, above their season average of 345.

Pick published: Nov 8 10:50am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 261

NFL Spread

Vikings +6.5 -105

Won: 33-30

Vikings at Bills

Sun Nov 13 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Minnesota wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick at +6, and if you can get the +6.5 still available at some books, grab it.
  • Bills QB Josh Allen is being evaluated for a ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and nerve injury to his right elbow. The team said they would update on Wednesday.
  • If Allen misses this game, or is limited or impacted with an injury to his throwing elbow, this line is a huge value, and is a decent price regardless on the Vikings.

Pick published: Nov 8 10:57am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 253

NFL Player Prop

Jared Goff Over 225.5 Passing Yards -110

Won: 236 yards

Lions at Bears

Sun Nov 13 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jared Goff passes for more than 225 yards in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows more than 20 yards of over value on Goff in this game, based on the spread and the 48.5 over/under total, one of the higher totals of the week.
  • The Bears defense has given up 552 passing yards and 9.7 yards per pass attempt allowed the last two weeks, and has traded away both DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith, impacting the defense.
  • Goff and the Lions have battled lots of injuries on offense that has impacted continuity, but he has still gone over the passing yards prop in 5 of 8 games.
  • His lowest yardage total game was last week, when he threw only 26 passes in a low-scoring game against Green Bay where Detroit played with the lead most of the game.
  • The Chicago offense is clicking and the Bears are scoring, which should push the scoring environment and increase Detroit's passing volume compared to last week.

Pick published: Nov 13 8:54am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NCAAF Spread

Stanford +24.0 -110

Lost: 7-42

Stanford at Utah

Sat Nov 12 • 10:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stanford wins the game or loses by fewer than 24 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model spread picks for this week and for the year, with 57.2% cover odds.
  • So far this year, on plays that our Ensemble Forecast rates as 56.0% or higher, the picks are 12-8 ATS.
  • Since the start of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 9-3 ATS.
  • Utah ranks in the Top 20 in Points per Yard difference and Stanford ranks in the bottom 20 in that category, which is likely a regression category our models are picking up.
  • Stanford is coming off their worst performance of the year, a 52-14 loss to Washington State and is now 2-7 ATS, but other than the last game, all results have been near the spread, and they've had close-game ATS bad luck.
  • Utah is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit fave this year, but has had extreme points-vs-yards luck in those games, and has covered three of them by a touchdown or less despite some extreme points-vs-yards luck..
  • Utah is at 10.3 yards per point in the four games as a double-digit fave, while opponents are at 22.3 yards per point in those games, because of an extreme turnover differential.
  • Stanford has significantly underperformed their points scored vs. yards gained in the last 3 games, ranking 4th worst in all of FBS over that span.
  • That includes Washington State recovering 5 of the 6 fumbles in the last game, contributing to the blowout loss.

Pick published: Nov 10 1:27pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 187

NCAAF Spread

Florida International +16.0 -110

Lost: 7-52

Florida Atlantic at Florida International

Sat Nov 12 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game or loses by fewer than 16 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model spread pick at +15.5, and is available at the +16 at DraftKings.
  • Florida International has been an inconsistent team, but has covered 4 of the last 6 games, and outright won three of them as an underdog.
  • Florida Atlantic is coming off a close win over UAB two weeks ago as a dog, but has likewise been inconsistent and is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a betting favorite against FBS competition.
  • Over the last five weeks, if our Ensemble Forecast model rates a pick as playable but the predictive ratings model has that team with less than 40% cover odds, they are 10-6 ATS. (So, the predictive rating is off because of other info, such as injuries, current team form, etc.) FIU is at 39.8% in our predictive ratings model. 
     

Pick published: Nov 10 12:34pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 226

NCAAF Moneyline

Georgia Tech To Win -120

Lost: 14-35

Miami at Georgia Tech

Sat Nov 12 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Georgia Tech wins the game in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a pick based on injury news and trends.
  • Miami fell to 1-8 ATS with 8 straight losses against the spread, with a 45-3 loss to Florida State last week.
  • The Hurricanes have major issues on offense and at quarterback, and starter Tyler Van Dyke tried to return from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the previous game, but re-injured it early in the second quarter against Florida State and did not return. 
  • The two other QBs for Miami, Jake Garcia and Jacurri Brown, have combined to average only 6.9 yards per attempt and throw 2 TDs to 5 INTs.
  • Georgia Tech fired head coach Geoff Collins after four games, and has gone 3-2 SU and ATS since then.
  • The Yellowjackets gave freshman QB Zach Pyron his first career start last week against Virginia Tech, and he responded with over 250 yards passing, and the team put up its highest yard total (463) of the season in the come-from-behind win on the road.
  • Most books have this as GT -1.5, which is also playable if you cannot get the pick'em/ML at this payout.
     

Pick published: Nov 10 11:27am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 154

NCAAF Spread

Tennessee -20.5 -110

Won: 66-24

Missouri at Tennessee

Sat Nov 12 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee wins the game by more than 20 points in Week 11.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model spread pick for Week 11 in college football.
  • Tennessee is coming off their only loss of the year at Georgia, and has covered the spread in 7 of 9 games.
  • Tennessee's one relative weakness is their pass defense, something that Georgia (top 20 in both passing yards and efficiency) was able to exploit.
  • Missouri's passing attack is not very good, and by passing yards per game are the worst team Tennessee has faced this year.
  • Missouri's defense has played well, but the offense has really struggled, and with Tennessee's multi-faceted offensive attack, Missouri will have difficulty matching Tennessee in points.

Pick published: Nov 10 12:18pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 142

NFL Spread

Saints +2.0 -110

Lost: 13-27

Ravens at Saints

Mon Nov 7 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Saints win the game or lose by fewer than 2 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model spread pick for Week 9.
  • The Ravens are also dealing with multiple offensive injuries, as WR Rashod Bateman was placed on IR, and TE Mark Andrews is doubtful to play.
  • It might be about time to put the Saints as a “buy-low” candidate after their showing last week in a 24-0 win over Las Vegas. They were wrecked by injuries over the first seven weeks, including QB Jameis Winston, RB Alvin Kamara missing time, CB Marshon Lattimore and WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. They also played four games in an 19-day stretch in October, including a trip to London.
  • New Orleans is currently dead last in turnover margin entering this game, while Baltimore is tied for third. Some regression to the mean there would benefit New Orleans.

Pick published: Nov 6 7:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 474

NFL Team Future

Seahawks Over 5.5 Season Wins +110

Won: 6 wins and counting, Wk 9

2022 NFL Season

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins more than 5 games during the 2022 regular season.

Staff notes:

  • Our current projection for Seattle is 6.5 wins, a full win of value over the offered line.
  • Seattle is already 2-2, so you need them to finish 4-9 or better the rest of the way to win this bet.
  • The Seahawks' offense has been playing really well, and they currently rank in the top 5 in pass efficiency (net yards per attempt) and rushing yards per carry.
  • Seattle is 30th in our predictive power ratings, yet we are still showing strong value on this number. They rate better in systems, like Football Outsiders' DVOA, that have per-play components given the pass efficiency numbers on offense.  

Pick published: Oct 4 10:56am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Derek Carr Over 249.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 259 Yards

Raiders at Jaguars

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Derek Carr passes for more than 249 yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • After three straight weeks of higher passing yard totals to start the year, Derek Carr has been under 250 yards for four games straight, but we are projecting a bounceback in Week 9.
  • Las Vegas has had a lot of injuries and turnover in the receiving group in recent weeks, and also were impacted by illness last week prior to their poor performance at New Orleans.
  • Based on the spread and the point total, we project Carr to have 270 passing yards this week against the Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars have allowed three straight QBs to go over the passing yard number, and that's despite the Jaguars losing all three games, so this is not dependent on game script and opponents chasing the score and passing at a high rate late. 
     

Pick published: Nov 6 8:38am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Gerald Everett Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -120

Lost: 36 Yards

Chargers at Falcons

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Gerald Everett finishes with more than 48 receiving yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on the Chargers' injury situation plus the Atlanta defense.
  • The Chargers will be without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at WR, and their depth has also been hit hard by injuries. That leaves WR Josh Palmer, TE Gerald Everett, and WR Michael Bandy (4 career catches) as the top options.
  • Everett has averaged 43.6 yards, and exceeded this yardage total in 4 of 7 games played so far.
  • With the injury situation, he should see an even larger target share than normal.
  • Atlanta's defense has been really bad against the pass, ranking dead last in yards allowed (307 per game), and allowing multiple big games per week to opposing receivers.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:19am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Raiders -1.5 -106

Lost: 20-27

Raiders at Jaguars

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Las Vegas wins by more than 1 point in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a trends/player info pick.
  • The Raiders are coming off getting shut out in Week 8 against New Orleans.
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, teams that were shut out the week before are 20-9-3 ATS, including the Colts' outright win over Kansas City in Week 3 this year.
  • Las Vegas was also hit by illness last week, at the end of the week head coach Josh McDaniels said ""We had a little bug going through the team. … Most of our guys are getting on the other side of it. Knock on wood that we don't end up with another four or five of us getting it, but I think most everybody will be back."
  • That included star WR Davante Adams (1 catch, 3 yards) who missed multiple practices last week, so it's at least a partial explanation that the Raiders played poorly because of that impact across the team, and are a potential value bounce-back.

Pick published: Nov 1 2:15pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

NFL Spread

Panthers +7.0 -110

Lost: 21-42

Panthers at Bengals

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick in early Week 9 spread lines, and the line has already moved from opening at 8 points down to 7 points since opening.
  • The Panthers have actually played better since the firing of former head coach Matt Rhule, and the offense has been more productive with P.J. Walker at QB (7.7 YPA) in place of Baker Mayfield (6.3 YPA).
  • Cincinnati struggled on offense on Monday Night in the first game without star WR Ja'Marr Chase, and he will be out for this game.
  • Even with Chase, Cincinnati was far more explosive on offense going against the two worst teams (New Orleans and Atlanta) in terms of pass rush pressure and pass defense, but has struggled against other opponents because of offensive line issues.
  • While Carolina does not rate highly in sacks, they are closer to average in net yards per pass and hurry and pressure rate stats.

Pick published: Nov 1 12:02pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 463

NFL Over/Under

Dolphins at Bears Over 43.5 -114

Won: 67 points

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Chicago combine for 43 or more points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick according to our models.
  • In addition, the Chicago Bears have traded away DE Robert Quinn and LB Roquan Smith in the last week, and just gave up 49 points to Dallas, and the Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL now.
  • Miami has averaged 26 points a game in the five games Tua Tagoavailoa played all game at QB, compared to 16.0 points per game in the other three.
  • Chicago is playing better on offense recently and embracing their rushing QB in Justin Fields and their strong running game, as they have had their three highest yardage games in the last three, with 20+ first downs in each.
  • The weather in Chicago looks like it will be unseasonably warm in early November for this week, and not an issue that should impact offenses.

Pick published: Nov 1 12:51pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 455

NFL Player Prop

Justin Fields Over 169.5 Passing Yards -120

Lost: 123 Yards

Dolphins at Bears

Sun Nov 6 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Justin Fields passes for more than 169 yards in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model has Fields projected for 194 passing yards, nearly 25 yards of value.
  • After a historically poor passing start to the season, Fields has had more than 170 yards passing in 4 of the last 5 games.
  • The defense also traded away two of its best players in recent weeks, and the point total in this game is climbing reflecting the Bears' likely poor defense.
  • Chicago also traded for WR Chase Claypool to give Fields another receiving option.
  • The Dolphins are capable of pushing the score and requiring the Bears to pass enough to hit this low total.
  • Opponent QBs have gone over the yardage total in 5 of 8 games, but it is 5 of 6 in the games that Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa starts, as the two most recent unders came in games the Dolphins trailed throughout and the team played without Tua, so the opponent did not pass much late.

Pick published: Nov 6 8:47am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NCAAF Spread

Colorado St. +24.0 -110

Won: 16-28

Colorado St. at San Jose St.

Sat Nov 5 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado State wins the game or loses by fewer than 24 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model pick against the spread in college football this week.
  • Since the start of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 8-1 ATS, including two Staff Pick wins last week, including Nevada against San Jose State.
  • Our models are picking up regression factors against San Jose State, including their high turnover margin and over-performance in yards per point margin.
  • Colorado State, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of FBS in yards per point margin, suggesting the scoring margins are more extreme than the underlying yards gained and allowed would suggest..

Pick published: Nov 3 2:44pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 373

NCAAF Moneyline

Missouri To Win +100

Lost: 17-21

Kentucky at Missouri

Sat Nov 5 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Missouri wins the game in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is just below playable as a model pick, though our model leans to Missouri in this game. It's a Staff Pick based on recent performance and trends.
  • When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 20% of the public is taking Missouri to win this game while our models have them as the slight favorite to win outright.
  • This line has also moved from -2.5 for Kentucky at opening, to where it is now fluctuating around a pick'em.
  • Kentucky QB Will Levis is considered a NFL prospect, but is playing through ankle and shoulder injuries, and is coming off a terrible performance at Tennessee where he threw for under 100 yards and three interceptions, and the Kentucky line has really struggled to protect him.
  • Kentucky started 3-0 ATS, but is 2-3 since, with all three losses coming by at least two touchdowns from the spread.
  • Missouri has covered 4 of the last 5 after a slow start, and is coming off a 13-point road win at South Carolina where they held the Gamecocks to 203 total yards.

Pick published: Nov 3 3:26pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 362

NCAAF Spread

Colorado +31.5 -110

Lost: 10-49

Oregon at Colorado

Sat Nov 5 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Colorado wins the game or loses by fewer than 32 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • Since the start of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 8-1 ATS, including two Staff Pick wins last week.
  • Oregon has covered 6 of 7 games since their opening blowout loss to Georgia, but is a popular spread pick (68% of public picking Oregon in spread pools) and is facing by far the biggest line of the year (previous, -17.5 vs. Stanford, covered by 0.5 points)..
  • Colorado started the year 0-5 SU and ATS before firing head coach Karl Dorell, but are 2-1 ATS since interim coach Mike Sanford took over the program.

Pick published: Nov 3 2:52pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 368

NCAAF Spread

Memphis +3.5 -110

Lost: 28-35

Central Florida at Memphis

Sat Nov 5 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Memphis wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is right on the cutline of playable according to our models (52.4%), and is also a play based on trends.
  • When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 9% of the public is taking Memphis to win, while our models give Memphis a 40% chance of winning outright.
  • Central Florida is coming off an emotional win over conference favorite Cincinnati, but now has to go on the road for just the second time in the last seven weeks, and they lost to East Carolina as a road favorite in their only other conference road game so far.
  • UCF's starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee left the last game with what was presumed to be a concussion, though there has been no official update on his status for this game.
  • The line has moved from UCF -5 to now -3.5 and -3 at some books. 

Pick published: Nov 3 3:44pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 404

NCAAF Spread

Kansas (Pick) -110

Won: 37-16

Oklahoma St. at Kansas

Sat Nov 5 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas wins the game in Week 10.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick but is a pick based on trends and line movement.
  • When our public pool pick data shows a 30% or more difference between win odds and pick popularity, the unpopular side is 7-2 ATS so far this year. Only 15% of the public is taking Kansas to win this game while they are a pick'em.
  • This line has moved from Oklahoma State -3.5 to a PK (and Kansas now favored on the ML in some books) since opening, and is going against popularity numbers.
  • Oklahoma State were shutout by Kansas State 48-0 last week, in a game where they were awful and managed only 217 yards of offense.
  • Kansas is 6-1-1 ATS, with the only loss coming last week against Baylor, by 1.5 points (12 point loss as a 10.5-point dog), and the surprising Jayhawks are playing for their sixth win of the season,  and a bowl berth.

Pick published: Nov 3 3:07pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 342

NFL Spread

Browns +3.0 -110

Won: 32-13

Bengals at Browns

Mon Oct 31 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Browns win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top playable spread pick according to our models in Week 8.
  • Further, Adam Schefter just reported that Bengals star WR Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a hip injury that could keep him out 4-6 weeks, and his loss could have an impact on the Bengals' big play offense. 
  • If you can still find this at +3.5 take it, but it's good at +3 which is where the spread moved immediately upon the news coming out, at many books.

Pick published: Oct 27 4:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel.

Rot# 278

NFL Spread

Giants +3.0 -110

Lost: 13-27

Giants at Seahawks

Sun Oct 30 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have this as the top playable spread pick in Week 8 as of Tuesday morning.
  • The New York Giants moved to 6-1 and the Seahawks to 4-3 as two of the biggest surprises of the year.
  • Some factors that our models like include the Giants' ability to control the ball in the second half of games, and the high rushing yards per game and per play compared to Seattle's defense.
  • The Giants are still undervalued because they do not put up flashy passing stats and are winning with ball control, but the offense continues to improve while they put up wins, and they are coming off a Daniel Jones game with 202 yards passing and 107 yards rushing as the team racked up a season-high 27 first downs.
  • The Giants have also been in seven close games this year so grabbing the number while it is at the key 3 point line is important.

Pick published: Oct 25 10:04am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 269

NFL Spread

Texans -1.0 -110

Lost: 10-17

Titans at Texans

Sun Oct 30 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game by more than 1 point in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is now our top model pick after a line move, following the news that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is out.
  • Rookie QB Malik Willis is starting for Tennessee, a player who has rushing ability but is raw as a passer.
  • Our models are picking up that teams like the Texans (and their poor overall power rating) who have spreads like this perform well on average (likely because of injury-related impacts on the spread). 
  • The Texans have also matched up well with the Titans recently, including 2-0 ATS last year with an outright win as a big underdog, and then losing by only a field goal in the rematch.

Pick published: Oct 30 10:03am ET, available at that time at FanDuel, DraftKings.

Rot# 268

NFL Player Prop

DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 152 yards

Panthers at Falcons

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: DJ Moore has more than 58 receiving yards in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • With the trades of RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Robbie Anderson from Carolina, Moore is the lone established receiving threat and should get an outsized share of the Panthers' passing volume.
  • Moore had a season-high 7 catches and 69 yards last week in the game without those two. 
  • Atlanta is 32nd in pass yards allowed this year through seven games.
  • 12 different starting wide receivers have had at least 60 yards receviing so far against Atlanta (Jarvis Landry, Cooper Kupp, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Donovan People-Jones, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd).

Pick published: Oct 30 10:56am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Spread

Panthers +4.5 -107

Won: 34-37

Panthers at Falcons

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • Atlanta is near the bottom of the NFL in both yards for and against, and has been outgained by 688 yards for the season.
  • Atlanta's offense has been worse without RB Cordarrelle Patterson (on IR the last three games) as they have averaged 5.8 fewer points per game, and 94.3 fewer yards per game.
  • The Atlanta pass defense is dead last in sacks, and last in pressure rate, while teams are throwing  at a high rate and averaging the 3rd-best net yards per pass against in the NFL.
  • Carolina is coming off its best offensive performance, with QB P.J. Walker in his second start, as he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt against Tampa Bay.

Pick published: Oct 26 11:14am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 257

NFL Over/Under

Cardinals at Vikings Under 49.0 -110

Lost: 60 points

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona and Minnesota combine for fewer than 49 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated Over/Under for Week 8.
  • Several regression factors are contributing to value on the Under in this game.
  • Minnesota is dead last in opponent TD rate in the red zone (80%) so far this year.
  • Arizona has four defensive touchdowns so far this year, boosting their scoring numbers, including two pick-sixes against the Saints that allowed them to get to 42 points on only 326 total yards last week.
  • Arizona rates last in net yards per pass on offense, and has not been making many explosive plays this year.
  • Arizona opponents have scored on a league-best 46% of all offensive possessions.

Pick published: Oct 26 10:59am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 264

NFL Spread

Cardinals +3.5 -107

Lost: 26-34

Cardinals at Vikings

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Arizona wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model plays against the spread for Week 8, at 55% cover odds.
  • Minnesota is off to a 5-1 start, but the last four wins have all come in close games that could have gone either way.
  • One big factor our model is picking up is the high opponent yards per play that Minnesota is surrendering as a favorite entering this game.
  • Minnesota has been outgained by nearly 300 yards through the first 6 games, and ranks 31st in net yards per pass allowed.

Pick published: Oct 25 9:04am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 263

NFL Player Prop

Tony Pollard Over 77.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 131 yards

Bears at Cowboys

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tony Pollard rushes for more than 77 yards in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • Tony Pollard will be the lead back for the Dallas Cowboys this week with Ezekiel Elliott unlikely to play.
  • In a game with a 10 point spread and a 42.5 point total, we project Dallas for 134 rushing yards as a team this week.
  • Pollard, who has averaged 5.6 yards per carry this year, and has been arguably the best back on Dallas for the last two years, should see a high percentage of carries in this matchup, and we project him as one of the highest yardage rushers of the week, with a projection of 91 yards.

Pick published: Oct 30 10:29am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Patriots -2.5 -115

Won: 22-17

Patriots at Jets

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New England wins the game by more than 2 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick, but a pick based on trends and player news.
  • This division game in New York is the type that has had little home field advantage (close proximity rivals who both play outdoors) and the Patriots specifically have played well in New York under Belichick, going 14-8 ATS.
  • The Patriots have had turnover issues, but are positive regression candidates based on their high INT rate, and opponent fumble rate (The Bears recovered all 5 of their own fumbles last week).
  • The Jets lost RB Breece Hall last week, and he was the big play threat that was providing a big chunk of offense and preventing them from having QB Zach Wilson throw a lot in recent weeks.
  • The Jets will also be without WR Corey Davis who leads the team in receiving yards.

Pick published: Oct 30 9:57am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 265

NFL Over/Under

Broncos vs. Jaguars Over 39.0 -110

Lost: 38 points

Sun Oct 30 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: Denver and Jacksonville combine for more than 39 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable model picks for Over/Unders in Week 8.
  • Denver and Jacksonville have both significantly underachieved their scoring when comparing it to yards gained so far this season.
  • Denver is 32nd in points scored but 23rd in yards, while Jacksonville is 16th in points and 7th in yards.
  • Denver is dead last in red zone touchdown rate on offense (23.5%) while ranking first in red zone touchdown rate on defense (25.0%).
  • Those are regression candidates to provide value on these teams scoring more than expected against this lowest total of the week.

Pick published: Oct 26 10:49am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 251

NFL Over/Under

Dolphins at Lions Over 51.5 -110

Won: 58 points

Sun Oct 30 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Miami and Detroit combine to score more than 51 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under pick per our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Both teams have had their offensive numbers impacted by injuries this year, as Miami lost QB Tua Tagovailoa for 2.5 games to concussion, and Detroit has been without several key players recently.
  • Detroit should have RB D'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown for the Week 8 matchup, and the Lions scored 95 points in the first three games with both active.
  • Detroit's defense ranks as the worst in the NFL, dead last in yards and points allowed.
  • Miami's offense has the playmakers to make this a track meet, and Detroit's offense can make explosive plays if their best offensive weapons return.

Pick published: Oct 26 9:54am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 261

NCAAF Spread

Nevada +24.5 -107

Won: 28-35

Nevada at San Jose St.

Sat Oct 29 • 10:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Nevada wins the game or loses by fewer than 21 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • As noted with the Florida staff pick, in the month of October, when our models have a playable pick on a team that is an underdog of 20 or more, they are 6-1 ATS.
  • We also had a staff pick against San Jose State last week, but their game against New Mexico State was postponed after a freshman RB on the team was tragically killed last Friday after being struck by a school bus while riding a scooter, and this is the first game for San Jose State in two weeks.
  • Our models are likely picking up several regression factors for San Jose State, including their extremely high turnover differential margin, as representing value to play against.
  • Nevada has failed to cover in six straight, but may be making a QB switch back to the original starter for the two games they did cover at the start of the season, after Shane Illingsworth came in for an ineffective Shane Cox during the game against San Diego State last week.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:23pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 199

NCAAF Spread

Florida +22.5 -105

Won: 20-42

Florida vs. Georgia

Sat Oct 29 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida wins the game or loses by fewer than 23 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of the top playable spread picks for college football this week according to our models, with estimated 57.5% cover odds.
  • So far in October, when our models identify a playable spread pick on an underdog of 20 or more points, they are 6-1 ATS.
  • This is the largest spread for Georgia in this rivalry game going back to at least 1995, and the first time the spread has been over 20 since Florida was favored by 20.5 in 1997 (Georgia outright win, 37-17).

Pick published: Oct 27 11:46am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 191

NCAAF Spread

Houston -17.5 -110

Lost: 42-27

South Florida at Houston

Sat Oct 29 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game by more than 17 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top model plays with estimated 57.5% cover odds.
  • South Florida starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon suffered a season-ending injury during their last game. Bohanon is the second-leading rusher on the team (386 yards).
  • Backup Katravis Marsh has completed less than 50 percent of passes in limited action (26 attempts), and has 5 rush attempts for -15 yards (suggesting he has taken sacks at a higher rate).
  • Our power ratings already had this as close to the spread (14.0 points on a neutral field, and it's at Houston) and the QB situation makes for additional value here.

Pick published: Oct 27 12:03pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 176

NCAAF Spread

Florida International +6.5 -110

Won: 42-34 (OT)

Louisiana Tech at Florida International

Fri Oct 28 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Florida International wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 9.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models.
  • Louisiana Tech could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game, as starting QB Parker McNeil was knocked out of the first quarter of last week's game, and then backup Matthew Downing suffered a season-ending injury at the end of the game.
  • We don't know McNeil's official status but this line has moved from 9 points at opening to its current line.
  • Florida International has also played better in October, going 3-1 ATS and covering by an average of 15.3 points, including an outright win at Charlotte last week as a 14-point dog.

Pick published: Oct 27 11:02am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 114

NFL Moneyline

Colts To Win +135

Lost: 10-19

Colts at Titans

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Indianapolis wins the game in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable moneyline pick according to our models.
  • A couple of years ago, we wrote an article about home teams (like Tennessee here) seeking a division sweep.
  • Adding in the results since that article was written, teams like the Titans who are going for the sweep after winning game 1 on the road as a small dog (4 or less) and are favored by 4 or less in the rematch are only 16-21 SU and 14-23 ATS since 2008.
  • In addition, the Colts offense is getting healthy and will likely have RB Jonathan Taylor back, a week after they scored 34 points and put up 29 first downs against the Jaguars.

Pick published: Oct 18 2:43pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 455

NFL Spread

49ers +3.0 -107

Lost: 23-44

Chiefs at 49ers

Sun Oct 23 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The San Francisco 49ers win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our models show this as a playable spread pick (at +3) and moneyline pick for Week 7.
  • San Francisco is a team that has played to competition level recently and has played better as an underdog (8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS) than in the favorite role (13-15 SU, 12-16 ATS).
  • The 49ers also rank top 5 in both pass offense and defense efficiency by net yards per pass, giving them the pass efficiency edge in this game as an underdog.
  • Another factor that our models like is San Francisco's extremely low YPC allowed (3.3, 1st in NFL)  going against this Chiefs offense.

Pick published: Oct 18 2:52pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 470

NFL Spread

Browns +6.5 -110

Won: 20-23

Browns at Ravens

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cleveland Browns win the game or loss by fewer than 7 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top-rated model pick against the spread in Week 7.
  • Games in the AFC North (played outdoors by teams within geographic proximity) have tended to show low home field advantage. Since 2002, AFC North home teams have covered 46.2% of the time in division games.
  • Home division favorites of 5 or more have only covered 40% of the time (35-53-2), with Baltimore specifically going only 8-18-1 ATS in division home games when favored by 5 or more points in that span.
  • Some other positive regression factors that our models are picking up include Cleveland's turnover margin and low turnover forced rate so far, and Baltimore's low penalty rate.

Pick published: Oct 18 3:10pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 459

NFL Over/Under

Jets at Broncos Under 37.0 -110

Won: 25 points

Sun Oct 23 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: New York and Denver combine for fewer than 37 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top playable model picks for Week 7.
  • QB Russell Wilson is now out for the Broncos, and Brett Rypien will be starting.
  • Denver ranks 32nd in points per game, but 4th in points allowed so far.
  • The Jets have won their last three games with more conservative game plans, and have averaged only 25 pass attempts per game with Zach Wilson at QB.
  • New York has also held three straight opponents under 300 total yards and the defensive line is emerging.
  • Despite one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL, the Jets rank top 5 in several pass rush categories, including knockdown rate and pressure rate. 
  • All these factors point to a defensive approach from both teams.

Pick published: Oct 23 10:28am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 466

NFL Player Prop

Geno Smith Under 260.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 210 Yards

Seahawks at Chargers

Sun Oct 23 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Geno Smith passes for fewer than 261 yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our passing yard model, there is about 20 yards of Under value on this prop based on the spread and total.
  • The Chargers rank 12th in net yards per pass allowed but are 31st in rush yards per carry (5.6) so far this year. This could lead Seattle to focus on establishing the run more with Kenneth Walker while playing on the road as underdogs.
  • Smith has also shown more willingness to run in recent weeks, and is coming off a game where he was sacked 5 times, and Seattle may look to get the ball out quicker on shorter throws in response.

Pick published: Oct 23 10:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Lamar Jackson Over 211.5 Passing Yards -120

Lost: 120 Yards

Browns at Ravens

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Lamar Jackson passes for more than 211 yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Over value on this prop based on the spread and total and Baltimore's projected pass/run distribution.
  • Our Over/Under model also has this as a playable total pick at BAL/CLE Over 46.0
  • Baltimore WR Rashod Batemen is expected to play today after missing the last two games with a foot injury. 
  • Bateman is Baltimore's top receiver and deep threat, and Jackson's yards per attempt has been higher in four games with Bateman (7.6) versus two without (6.0).
  • Cleveland is also a Staff Pick against the spread, making this a correlated wager with that spread play, as Jackson is more likely to throw a higher number of passes if Baltimore doesn't cover the spread of -6.5.



     

Pick published: Oct 23 10:56am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Joe Burrow Under 283.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 481 Yards

Falcons at Bengals

Sun Oct 23 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow passes for fewer than 284 passing yards in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model shows about 19 yards of Under value on this based on the spread, total, and Bengals projected pass-run distribution.
  • Atlanta is 31st in pass attempts faced so far, and 30th in third down conversion percentage allowed, two areas that explain why this total is pushed to the highest of the week in the passing prop market at most books.
  • But that provides an area for regression downward, as Atlanta's pass numbers (291.2 per game allowed) are pushed up by pass volume against, including several games where Atlanta played with a big lead despite being an underdog.
  • Our Over/Under models also give an Under lean on the total.

Pick published: Oct 23 11:09am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Spread

Southern Methodist +3.5 -110

Won: 27-29

Cincinnati at Southern Methodist

Sat Oct 22 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: SMU wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Cincinnati QB Ben Bryant suffered a concussion last week, and is in concussion protocol, though the line hasn't moved for any concern that he could miss the matchup.
  • Cincinnati is a very popular pick according to our pick'em football pool data, with 90% of public picking Cincinnati in this matchup despite the low spread.
  • So far this year, when there has been at least a 30% difference between our estimated win odds and the public pick rate, the unpopular side is 4-1 ATS.
  • SMU is 1-0 since the Pony Poop incident and we are playing on them going for number two at home here.

Pick published: Oct 19 7:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 390

NCAAF Spread

Louisiana St. -2.0 -110

Won: 45-20

Mississippi at Louisiana St.

Sat Oct 22 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU wins the game or loses by fewer than 2 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have a lean on LSU but this one is just below the playable threshold for our models.
  • This is a staff play going against public popularity, on line movement, and LSU's offensive breakout last week in head coach Brian Kelly's first year in Baton Rouge.
  • Ole Miss was a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night but this line has been moving and is now at -2.5 at some books, so we are recommending grabbing it before it gets to three points. 
  • According to our pool pick'em data, 77% of the public is picking 7-0 Mississippi to win outright, even though LSU is now the betting market favorite. As noted in the pick on SMU, so far this year when there is a 30%+ difference in our public pick data and our projected win odds, the undervalued team is 4-1 ATS (and the one loss was by a half-point). 
  • LSU is coming off a great offensive performance at Florida where they had over 500 yards of offense and QB Jaydon Daniels averaged over 10 yards per pass, and LSU scored a TD on each of their first six possessions.

     

Pick published: Oct 20 11:47am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 384

NCAAF Spread

New Mexico St. +22.0 -110

No Action: Postponed

2022-2023 College Football Season

More info

How it wins: New Mexico State wins or loses by fewer than 22 points in Week 8.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest-rated spread play accoridng to our models for this week in college football (with 57.4% cover odds at +21.5).
  • DraftKings has this line currently at +22, while the +21.5 available at most books is also playable.
  • San Jose State had been rolling with three straight wins, but lost last week to rival Fresno State 17-10 despite a +2 advantage in turnovers.
  • One factor our model is likely picking up as a value here is the turnover margins, where San Jose State ranks near the top of college football at +9 in turnovers while New Mexico State is near the bottom of FBS.
  • New Mexico State is coming off their 2nd win of the season, over rival New Mexico, and appears to be transitioning to freshman QB Gavin Frakes, who threw every pass in the victory. Frakes has higher efficiency numbers than junior Diego Pavia (4.1 yards per pass, O TD, 4 INT).

Pick published: Oct 20 11:01am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Rondale Moore Over 4.5 Receptions -155

Lost: 1 reception

Saints at Cardinals

Thu Oct 20 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Rondale Moore finishes with more than 4 receptions in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • Rondale Moore plays the slot role in the Arizona offense, and this role has generated volume this year.
  • Moore missed the first 3 games with injury, when Greg Dortsch played that position, and then they split the role in Week 4 in Moore's return.
  • Overall, the two have averaged 6.2 receptions and 55.3 yards per game, with Moore totaling 13 catches the last two weeks while getting healthier.
  • Arizona WR DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension this week, but leading receiver Marquise Brown suffered an injury, so Moore should still have a starting role as the slot receiver.
  • Arizona is also currently thin at RB with James Conner and Darrel Williams out, and could use more short designed passes in place of the running game.

Pick published: Oct 20 12:52pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Broncos +5.0 -105

Won: 16-19

Broncos at Chargers

Mon Oct 17 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Denver wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a top playable spread and moneyline pick according to our models for Week 5.
  • The Chargers are also the most popular spread pick in football pools so far this week, and the most over-picked team (relative to their win odds) according to our Football Pick'em Picks data.
  • 94% of the public is picking them to win outright. (So far this year, when there is at least a 30% difference between win odds and pick popularity in our data, the favorite is 1-3 straight up.)
  • Denver has significantly underperformed this year, and is coming off an ugly Thursday Night performance against Indianapolis where they only managed nine points.
  • The Broncos are 31st in points scored after five weeks, but they are a better (18th) in terms of yards gained. That makes for some positive regression potential for Denver.
  • As bad as Denver has been, over the long term, NFL teams don't score a touchdown on only 21% of their red zone trips, as the Broncos have done so far this year.

 

Pick published: Oct 12 5:10pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 275

NFL Player Prop

Jalen Hurts Under 235.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 155 Yards

Cowboys at Eagles

Sun Oct 16 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: jalen Hurts passes for fewer than 236 yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing model has a lean Under here for Hurts based on the point total, of about 20 yards.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have allowed only one quarterback to pass for more than 212 yards (Stafford) and that was in a game with a very high number of pass attempts for the Rams.
  • The Eagles have had more rush attempts than pass attempts and figure to be run heavy in this one unless they are down by multiple scores.
  • With both pass defenses ranking in the top 3 in net yards per pass allowed we expect a more balanced and conservative offensive game plan from the teams.
     

Pick published: Oct 16 7:08am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Jaguars at Colts Over 41.5 -110

Won: 61 points

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jacksonville and Indianapolis combine for more than 41 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable Over/Under according to our models.
  • This line is commonly available at 42.0 at most books, which is playable, but if you can still get the 41.5 grab it.
  • These teams combined for only 24 points in Week 2 as the Jaguars shutout the Colts, but the Colts were without their two best receivers.
  • When picking against the Jags last week, we noted they were outperforming in yards per point. That regressed with a vengeance in Week 5, as they had 422 total yards but scored only 6 points.
  • The Colts are dead last in yards per point right now, significantly underperforming, and they rate 30th in red zone TD rate.
  • There's regression value for more points to be scored as both teams underperformed and failed to get a touchdown last week, keeping this total down.

Pick published: Oct 11 4:52pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 255

NFL Spread

Panthers +10.5 -110

Lost: 10-24

Panthers at Rams

Sun Oct 16 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carolina wins the game or loses by fewer than 11 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have this as a playable spread pick (53% to cover).
  • This LA Rams team has really struggled on the offensive line, cannot run the ball, and gives up sacks, making them a good option to play against particularly when laying points. 
  • The Rams are 26th in yards and 29th in points scored so far, and have a negative point and yardage differential for the year.
  • Carolina just fired head coach Matt Rhule, and QB Baker Mayfield will miss the game with an ankle injury, but we are not sure either of those things are negative factors for Carolina because Mayfield has been very bad this year. (We will add a note on how teams have done in game 1 after firing a coach later).

Pick published: Oct 11 12:52pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, PointsBet.

Rot# 267

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Saints Under 43.5 -110

Lost: 56 points

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati and New Orleans combine for fewer than 44 points.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top model pick for an Over/Under in Week 6.
  • The injury news has mostly come down against the offenses in this game, as the Saints will be without their top three wide recievers after Chris Olave has been ruled out this morning (in addition to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still being out), and WR Tee Higgins for the Bengals is a game-time decision with an ankle injury.
  • In addition, the Saints' underlying defensive stats are far better than the scoring stats show, as they have been victimized by a few big plays but have been really good and rank highly in third down and red zone defense.
  • Finally, the Bengals have shown a tendency to run the ball more heavily early in games, if not efficiently with Joe Mixon.

Pick published: Oct 16 7:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 254

NFL Moneyline *SOMETHING CHANGED: SEE NOTES*

Saints To Win +110

Lost: 26-30

Bengals at Saints

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: New Orleans wins in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • UPDATE: Most of the injury and player availability news after we made this pick has been negative for the Saints. We no longer recommend this pick, though it will still count in our historical win-loss records.
  • This is a playable money line pick and with the spread fluctuating between 1.5 and 2 points we'll prefer the moneyline to paying juice on the points.
  • The Saints are a little undervalued right now on defense, just looking at their points allowed. They are about average in yards allowed per game, but rank worse (25th) in points allowed at 25.6 per game.
  • Interestingly, the Saints' third-down defense and red-zone defense have been really good. The culprit has been a handful of big plays, as half of the 12 touchdowns scored against New Orleans have been on plays of 40 yards or longer. That includes a couple of defensive scores, but also a big 69-yard run last week by Seattle's Kenneth Walker.
  • Saints QB Jameis Winston returned to practice on Wednesday after two weeks off, but the big variable here is the New Orleans wide receiver situation, but we like grabbing some potential moneyline value before that news is finalized.
  • Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry, yet Cincinnati continues to be run-heavy on early downs despite that inefficiency.
  • Bengals WR Tee Higgins has battled injuries, and even though he was active last week on a limited snap count, he saw zero targets, and the offense isn't clicking right now.

Pick published: Oct 12 5:16pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 254

NFL Player Prop

Kyler Murray Over 257.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 222 yards

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sun Oct 16 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kyler Murray passes for more than 257 yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is the second-highest point total on the board (50.5) this week, and even with our over/under models showing value on the Under, we still show nearly 20 yards of value on the passing yards going over here.
  • Seattle's pass defense is dead last in efficiency and net yards per pass against, and has allowed four of five teams to average over 8 yards per pass attempt (San Fran at 7.7 was only team that did not so far).
  • Arizona is also without RBs James Conner and Darrel Williams, leaving Eno Benjamin, more of a combo threat, as the only healthy normal rotation running back available. As a result of that injury situation we expect Arizona to be more pass heavy..

Pick published: Oct 16 7:24am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

George Pickens Over 47.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 27 yards

Buccaneers at Steelers

Sun Oct 16 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: George Pickens has more than 47 receiving yards in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • George Pickens has been the most productive receiving option for Pittsburgh since Kenny Pickett took over at QB 6 quarters ago. 
  • Pickens was a revelation in the preseason and looked like a future star with his athletic ability, but got off to a slow start with Mitchell Trubisky unable to get him (or anyone else) the ball consistently.
  • This receiving number is close to in line with his season average, but he's had games of 102 and 81  yards with Pickett pushing the ball downfield.
  • We'll play on this connection between the two rookies being real, and for Pickens to continue to emerge.
     

Pick published: Oct 16 7:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Spread

Kentucky +4.0 -110

Won: 27-17

Mississippi St. at Kentucky

Sat Oct 15 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kentucky wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our models, and Kentucky is also a playable Money Line play if you would rather take odds in the +145 to +150 range at most books on an outright win.
  • Mississippi State has rolled in three straight home games and is 3-0-1 ATS at home, but lost outright as a road favorite at LSU last month.
  • Mississippi State benefited by catching each of their last two opponents having to start backup quarterbacks because of injury (Texas A&M and Arkansas).
  • Kentucky is coming off an upset loss to South Carolina, where its starting QB Will Levis missed the game.
  • Levis is expected to be back for this one, giving a boost to Kentucky and some value compared to recent results for both teams.

Pick published: Oct 13 12:54pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 130

NCAAF Moneyline

Louisiana St. To Win +120

Won: 45-35

Louisiana St. at Florida

Sat Oct 15 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: LSU wins the game in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is one our top playable moneyline plays in CFB this week and also a playable spread pick (LSU +2.5) but we will play the moneyline with the spread under the 3 point number.
  • LSU is coming off a blowout loss at home to Tennessee, and our public data from game winner and spread pools show that Florida is a very popular pick, being selected to win 80% of the time.
  • Our power ratings have LSU as the better team despite last week's result, as we rank them No. 20 to No. 44 for Florida, and 5.3 points better on a neutral field.

Pick published: Oct 13 12:18pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 133

NCAAF Spread

Charlotte +23.5 -110

Won: 20-34

Charlotte at UAB

Sat Oct 15 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Charlotte wins the game or loses by fewer than 24 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • This is also a pick based on the Charlotte QB situation, where starter Chris Reynolds got hurt in the opener and missed the next two losses, and the pass efficiency numbers are drastically different with and without him.
  • Reynolds is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt making Charlotte a live dog with the potential to score.
  • Charlotte is coming off a bye, but two weeks ago, they lost outright to UTEP in a close game, but won yards and first downs and were sunk by turnovers.

Pick published: Oct 13 12:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

Rot# 195

NCAAF Spread

Central Florida -23.5 -110

Won: 70-13

Temple at Central Florida

Thu Oct 13 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Central Florida wins by more than 23 points in Week 7.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top rated play against the spread for Week 7 and tied for our highest rated play of the last three weeks (57.5% cover odds).
  • Over the last three weeks, college spread picks rated as having 55% or greater cover odds have gone 6-2 ATS.
  • Our power ratings have Central Florida as 26.9 points better on a neutral field, and this game is being played at home in Orlando.

Pick published: Oct 13 12:18pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 110

NFL Player Prop

Isiah Pacheco Over 21.5 Rushing Yards -130

Lost: 0 Yards

Raiders at Chiefs

Mon Oct 10 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Isaih Pacheco rushes for more than 21 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Pacheco has accounted for approximately 30% of the Chiefs rushing yards (and attempts) through four games.
  • Our projection for the Chiefs rushing yard over/under is 108.4 against the Raiders.
  • That would project Pacheco for 32.5 yards against the Raiders, over 10 yards of value.
  • After mostly being used in late game/reserve situations the first three weeks, the rookie Pacheco matched Clyde Edwards-Helaire with 6 first half rush attempts last week against Tampa Bay, en route to a 63-yard day, and could be in line for a bigger early role going forward.

Pick published: Oct 9 9:50am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 221.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 253 yards

49ers at Panthers

Sun Oct 9 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jimmy Garoppolo passes for fewer than 222 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model show over 20 yards of value on the Under for Garoppolo.
  • The total for this game is the lowest of the week, 39.5, and San Francisco is a larger road favorite at 6.5 points. That puts San Francisco's opponent, Carolina, tied for the second-lowest implied point total at 16.5 points this week.
  • The Panthers are 32nd in plays run so far, and San Francisco is 23rd, so this projects as a game played at a slow pace and with a reduced number of plays.
  • Carolina's pass defense has been pretty good this year, ranking in the top 10 in net yards per pass. Only one opponent has passed for more than 207 yards, and that was New Orleans throwing 41 times while trailing by multiple scores the entire second half.
  • Given Carolina's offensive struggles and San Francisco's strong pass defense, we project a low-volume pass approach from the 49ers this week, as they try to limit mistakes.
     

Pick published: Oct 7 12:17pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

NFL Spread

Cowboys +4.5 -110

Won: 22-10

Cowboys at Rams

Sun Oct 9 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Dallas wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Rams offensive line is struggling, as they rank 30th in rush yards and have allowed 16 sacks (Stafford is on pace for a career-high sack rate right now at 9.6% of all dropbacks)
  • Dallas, meanwhile, ranks third in points allowed, has not allowed 20 points in any game yet this year, and has generated 15 sacks in 4 games (tied for 2nd-most in NFL).
  • We'll grab the underdog getting over a field goal in a matchup where they should have a decided advantage on the line when the Rams are on offense. 

Pick published: Oct 4 9:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 475

NFL Moneyline

Commanders To Win +110

Lost: 17-21

Titans at Commanders

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Washington wins the game in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is right on the edge of playable according to our models.
  • This same pick was featured in our Week 5 Upset Picks article, where our picks are 8-4 SU so far this year through four weeks. 
  • Since that was posted, the line has moved further in Washington's direction, but we still like this value.
  • Tennessee is 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed so far (7.7), better than only Miami (7.8) and Seattle (8.2). That's even more worrisome considering that the Titans have played only one team (Buffalo) in the upper third of the league in passing.
  • The Titans are one of the most popular picks according to our pool picks data, as the public is picking them heavily in game-winner (85%) and spread pools (77%), while we have seen line movment go against them.

Pick published: Oct 6 5:06pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 464

NFL Spread

Texans +7.0 -105

Won: 13-6

Texans at Jaguars

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Houston wins the game or loses by fewer than 7 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our highest-rated model plays for Week 5 against the spread.
  • Jacksonville has a really nice point differential (+38) after four games, but ranks first, in yards per point margin. This represents how points are related to yards gained and Jacksonville is way overperforming and a candidate for regression.
  • Jacksonville is also not used to the favorite role here. The last two times they were favored were two outright losses to Houston last season, and they've lost four in a row as a betting favorite and haven't won a game when favored since the 2019 season.
  • We'll grab this line while it's at the key number of 7 in a matchup where the Texans have played well recently.

Pick published: Oct 4 9:50am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 455

NFL Player Prop

Zach Wilson Over 218.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 210 yards

Dolphins at Jets

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Zach Wilson passes for more than 218 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing model shows over 30 yards of value on Wilson's over here.
  • The point total in this game, 45.5, is slightly above average for the week, and this really low passing total is off line with the expected points in this game combined with the Jets pass-run profile.
  • The Jets have thrown the most passes in the NFL, and even in Wilson's return last week, he threw 36 passes in a game that was closer to situation-neutral compared to the first three weeks (where the Jets trailed by a lot in each game). 
  • Miami could be without starting corner Xavien Howard in addition to still missing Byron Jones, and if Howard plays he may not be 100%.
  • Miami is a blitz-heavy team who should bring pressure against Wilson, but that creates volatility and we look for there to be opportunities for big plays both ways in this game.

Pick published: Oct 7 12:29pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Giants +8.0 -110

Won: 27-22

Giants vs. Packers

Sun Oct 9 • 9:30am ET

More info

How it wins: The New York Giants win the game or lose by fewer than 8 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is our top playable model pick against the spread for Week 5.
  • We were waiting to hear about QB Daniel Jones' status for the game on Sunday morning in London after he had an ankle injury last week, and backup Tyrod Taylor left the game with a concussion.
  • Now that it's confirmed QB Jones will start for the Giants we are moving it to the Staff Picks.
  • It's currently available at some books at the +8 for now, but is playable at +7.5 as well.

Pick published: Oct 7 3:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 451

NFL Player Prop

Josh Allen Under 41.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 42 yards

Steelers at Bills

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Josh Allen rushes for fewer than 42 yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • Josh Allen's rushing production is correlated with the type of matchup he is facing, and he runs less when the Bills are a heavier favorite.
  • Since the start of 2021, in 13 games where Bills were favored by 6 or more, Allen averaged 5.7 rush attempts for 36.8 yards, while in 10 games where the spread was 4.5 or lower, he averaged 9.2 rush attempts and 61.3 yards.
  • Allen is coming off consecutive road games at Miami and Baltimore where he ran the ball 19 total times, and the Bills have a key showdown against Kansas City next week where they are likely to ask Allen to make lots of plays with his feet.
  • The Bills are favored by 14 points in this matchup with Pittsburgh, with QB Kenny Pickett making his first career start, and we project Buffalo to game plan fewer designed runs for Allen in this matchup and save him for higher leverage games.

Pick published: Oct 7 1:11pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Chase Claypool Under 32.5 Receiving Yards -120

Lost: 50 yards

Steelers at Bills

Sun Oct 9 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chase Claypool has fewer than 33 receiving yards in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • We have an Under lean on Pittsburgh's passing yards in this game, with Kenny Pickett making his first career start against the Bills defense, in a game where the Steelers are 14-point underdogs, and project Pittsburgh for 189 yards passing.
  • Chase Claypool has been falling behind other Pittsburgh receivers, over his last eight games played, he's averaging a woeful 4.2 yards per target.
  • When Pickett replaced Mitch Trubisky at QB for the start of the second half last week, Claypool was the target of his first pass attempt, but it was deflected off Claypool's hands and was intercepted.
  • Claypool was not targeted again, and finished with 0 receptions. Meanwhile, rookie George Pickens emerged with his first 100-yard receiving game, with most coming in the second half with Pickett at QB.
  • Claypool also saw his snaps fall from over 90% in the first three weeks to 73% in Week 4.
  • So we'll play against Claypool as the fourth option, and one that could be in decline, in a tough game environment at Buffalo.

Pick published: Oct 9 10:29am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Spread

Massachusetts +24.5 -110

Won: 24-42

Liberty at Massachusetts

Sat Oct 8 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Massachusetts wins the game or loses by fewer than 25 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our top-rated model plays against the spread this week in college football.
  • Massachusetts is one of the worst offenses in FBS, but they are also dead last in our yards per point metric, meaning they have significantly underperformed how many points you would expect them to score based on yards gained, due to things like turnovers and missed opportunities in key spots.
  • Liberty ranks near the bottom of FBS in both sacks taken and interceptions thrown (by percentage) so in a game where they are heavily favored, they could also play more conservatively given their recent struggles.

Pick published: Oct 6 5:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 330

NCAAF Spread

UCLA +3.5 -110

Won: 42-32

Utah at UCLA

Sat Oct 8 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCLA wins the game or loses by fewer than 4 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our playable model picks, and is also one of the three highest rated plays by our Decision Tree model.
  • UCLA is coming off a home win as a slight dog over Washington to move to 5-0 overall, while Utah has covered four straight after their season-opening loss at Florida.
  • UCLA's is emerging on offense for coach Chip Kelly and fifth-year senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, up to No. 8 in total yards per game, and they've scored 40+ points in four of their five games.
  • UCLA's defense also rates much better in yard and efficiency stats, and may be undervalued by just looking at points allowed.
  • UCLA is 7th in opponent yards per rush and 14th in opponent yards per pass this season, but has poor third down and red zone stats, areas for positive regression.

Pick published: Oct 6 5:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

Rot# 368

NCAAF Spread

Michigan -22.5 -107

Lost: 31-10

Michigan at Indiana

Sat Oct 8 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan wins the game by more than 22 points in Week 6.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • Michigan ranks 5th in the nation in opponent yards per pass, at 5.4.
  • Indiana meanwhile, has been the most-pass-happy team in FBS, but hasn't been very efficient at it with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak at QB, as they have averaged only 5.5 yards per pass.
  • Michigan's offense also has one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the country, and their advantage on that side of the ball, combined with the bad pass efficiency matchup for Indiana, makes this a play.

Pick published: Oct 6 5:00pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 319

NFL Spread

Seahawks +4.5 -110

Won: 48-45

Seahawks at Lions

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Seattle wins the game or loses by fewer than 5 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable pick according to our models at 56.2% cover odds.
  • Detroit also has some injury concerns to key offensive skill players. RB D'Andre Swift is likely to miss the game with a shoulder injury, and while WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has avoided a serious long-term ankle injury, that doesn't mean he will be playing this week, and his status is very much in doubt.
  • Detroit is 27th in both rushing yards allowed and rushing yards per carry allowed, a factor that could keep a team like Seattle, that wants to run the ball and not rely on passing constantly, in the game.
  • Seattle's pass D has been bad so far this year, but if they are catching Detroit without their two best playmakers healthy, they can compete.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 261

NFL Spread

Patriots +10.5 -110

Won: 24-27

Patriots at Packers

Sun Oct 2 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The New England Patriots win the game or lose by fewer than 11 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is a model pick with 53% cover odds according to our Ensemble Forecast.
  • It's also a play against overreaction to the Mac Jones' injury. 
  • These two teams have very similar yardage profiles through three weeks, and Green Bay's offense has not been explosive. 
  • The primary difference in the Patriots' start has been a terrible tunover margin, where Jones had thrown five interceptions and the Patriots have eight overall, 31st in the NFL.
  • Belichick is 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS as a dog of 7.5 or more since 2000, including an outright win in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start in Week 1 of 2016, with Tom Brady suspended.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 275

NFL Player Prop

Baker Mayfield Over 204.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 197 yards

Cardinals at Panthers

Sun Oct 2 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baker Mayfield passes for more than 204 yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Based on our player prop model using spread and over/under, we project Mayfield for 239.5 passing yards in this game, 34 yards of value.
  • Through three games, Mayfield has thrown only 81 passes and is completing a career-low 51.9 percent (career: 61.2)
  • The Carolina Panthers have also run only 51.3 plays per game (excluding sacks) so far, well below expectation through three weeks.
  • An examination of the 10 most similar teams since 2010 by pass plays and total plays run, scoring, and opponent total plays through three games shows that eight of the 10 went over this pass yard total in Week 4, and saw their total plays run move upward.
  • So we see some positive regression potential if the Panthers can just move closer to league average in plays run.
  • In addition, the Cardinals are dead last in Net Yards per Attempt allowed (8.0) after three games, so Mayfield can hit this number on increased efficiency in additon to increased volume.

Pick published: Sep 29 7:55pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Browns at Falcons Over 47.5 -110

Lost: 43 points

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cleveland and Atlanta combine for more than 47 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is one of our playable Over/Under picks according to our models for Week 4.
  • In addition, Browns DE Myles Garrett has been ruled out for this game following a Monday car accident.
  • The Browns were thin on defensive line in Week 3, with DE Jadeveon Clowney out (he is questionable as of now to play today) and are also without starting DT Taven Bryan today. 
  • All three Falcons games so far have had at least 50 points scored and Atlanta is giving up 27 points per game.
  • Given potential pass rush issues for Cleveland, we like this game to continue that trend, with the Browns able to move the ball against the Falcons D, but Atlanta's playmakers having time to generate big plays against a weakened pass rush without Garrett.

Pick published: Oct 2 8:38am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 269

NFL Player Prop

Marcus Mariota Over 215.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 139 yards

Browns at Falcons

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Marcus Mariota passes for more than 215 yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • We also added Cleveland/Atlanta Over and this is a correlated bet with that staff pick.
  • Even before our lean to the game total Over, though, our player prop model shows value on Mariota's passing yards, projecting him for 237.9 yards given the game total and spread.
  • With Browns star DE Myles Garrett now officially ruled out, we like Mariota to have more time in the pocket to make some plays downfield to weapons like WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.
     

Pick published: Oct 2 8:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Darnell Mooney Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 94 yards

Bears at Giants

Sun Oct 2 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Darnell Mooney has more than 35 receiving yards in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Darnell Mooney only has 27 receiving yards all season on 4 catches, driving this number down.
  • Mooney still has 25% of the Bears' targets, which is right on our preseason projection for his usage. 
  • The Bears are on pace for the lowest passing yards since 1978 right now, but we expect some positive regression in that category.
  • Our projection for Mooney is 46.5 yards in this game, about 11 yards of value. 
  • While we also show value on Fields very low Over of 146.5 yards, we see the better play is that the Bears are likely to make getting the ball to their best play-making WR, Mooney, a priority with how much they have under-utlized him so far.

Pick published: Oct 2 10:14am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Over/Under

Michigan St. at Maryland Under 60.0 -107

Won: 40 points

Sat Oct 1 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Michigan State and Maryland combine for fewer than 60 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick with 53.1% cover odds.
  • In addtion, we are playing the potential impact of wind and rainy conditions in the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday with the after-effects of Tropical Storm Ian, and how those conditions could impact offenses..

Pick published: Sep 29 3:43pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 132

NCAAF Over/Under

Texas St. at James Madison Under 51.5 -110

Lost: 53 points

Sat Oct 1 • 1:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Texas State and James Madison combine for fewer than 52 points in Week 5.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable model pick with 55.4% cover odds.
  • In addtion, we are playing the potential impact of wind and rainy conditions in the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday with the after-effects of Tropical Storm Ian, and how those conditions could impact offenses..

Pick published: Sep 29 3:43pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 148

NFL Spread

Bengals -3.5 -110

Won: 27-15

Dolphins at Bengals

Thu Sep 29 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cincinnati Bengals win by more than 3 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • Our models do not have this as a playable spread, but we are making this a staff pick based on injury news and trying to grab value on a short rest week for both teams.
  • Miami QB Tua Tagoavailoa left the game briefly on Sunday after a hit, where there was speculation that it could be a head injury but the team said it was a back injury. (You be the judge.)
  • Tagoavailoa isn't practicing yet this week, and comments by head coach Mike McDaniel were curious at best, saying he was going to try to play, but also that he would be limited in practice and questionable if the game was on Sunday.
  • Several other key players are not practicing yet, though the coach said he thinks "most, if not all" will play.
  • Miami was also just out-gained by Buffalo significantly despite winning, so there is some value in playing against the 3-0 team that isn't as good as their record, with a lot of injury question marks.
  • We have already seen this line moving to 4 at a lot of books, so shop around for your best line.

Pick published: Sep 27 3:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 102

NFL Spread

Jaguars +7.0 -107

Won: 38-10

Jaguars at Chargers

Sun Sep 25 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jacksonville Jaguars win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick (53.8%) according to our Ensemble Forecast model.
  • The Jaguars are coming off a 24-0 win over Indianapolis in Week 2, and looking far more competent this year under HC Doug Pederson compared to the Urban Meyer disaster a year ago.
  • Last year's first overall pick, QB Trevor Lawrence, is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt (after averaging 6.0 as a rookie) and has found a connection with new WR Christian Kirk.
  • Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage in the Thursday Week 2 game at Kansas City. While he could still play through the painful injury by Sunday, we'll grab this line at a touchdown for value against either a limited Herbert or backup QB Chase Daniel.

Pick published: Sep 20 10:23am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 479

NFL Player Prop

Tua Tagovailoa Over 253.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 186 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tua Tagoavailoa passes for more than 253 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Based on the current spread (-5) and 53.5 point total, our player prop model projects Tua for 279.5, 26 points of Over value.
  • Tagoavailoa has gone over his prop total in both of the first two weeks with WR Tyreek Hill now on the team and with new coach Mike McDaniel, and Miami has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL through two weeks.
  • Buffalo has a lot of defensive injuries, and will be without starting S Micah Hyde and CB Dane Jackson, and could also be missing S Jordan Poyer on Sunday.
  • That thin secondary opens opportunity for big plays by Miami's receiving super duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:15pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Carson Wentz Under 36.5 Pass Attempts -115

Lost: 43 attempts

Eagles at Commanders

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Carson Wentz attempts fewer than 37 official pass attempts in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • So far this year, Wentz has attempted 87 pass attempts through two games, but our models show value on the Under here with Washington in the underdog role.
  • Wentz is projected for 32.5 pass attempts in our model, a value of 4 attempts. 
  • Washington ranks third in third-down conversions at 56%, behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia, a factor that has contributed to them running more than 10 more plays than their opponents in both games.
  • They also trailed Detroit by double digits starting in the late first quarter of Week 2 and chased the game at high attempts all day.
  • Teams have passed at a high rate against the Eagles so far while trailing, but the Eagles rate top 5 in pass efficiency D. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is allowing 6.2 yards per carry so far this year.
  • Washington is more likely to adopt a more balanced attack given those factors, and is also at risk of regression in third down rates and extending drives that increase pass attempts.

Pick published: Sep 23 1:24pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Eagles at Commanders Under 47.5 -107

Won: 32 points

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Philadelphia and Washington combine for fewer than 48 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable total pick according to our Ensemble Forecast Model, with 53.1% cover odds.
  • This pick is a correlated bet with the Carson Wentz pass attempts Under staff pick.
  • The matchup looks like one where the Commanders might adopt more of a run-pass balance approach given how explosive the Eagles offense is, combined with their strong pass defense but rush D that has given up big plays.
  • Both teams rank in the top 3 in third down conversion rate early in the year, an area of regression potential and value, where the scoring will go down if both teams see their third down rates regress toward league average.
  • Both are also in the top 10 in red zone TD rate, and Washington is tied for best in the league so far, scoring a TD on 6 of 6 drives that reached the opponent 20. That is unsustainable and an area of value potential on the total.

     

Pick published: Sep 25 10:19am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 476

NFL Player Prop

Davante Adams Over 84.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 36 yards

Raiders at Titans

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Davante Adams has more than 84 receiving yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a play based on the injury to Las Vegas slot WR Hunter Renfrow, who will miss Week 3, as well as the illness status of RB Josh Jacobs.
  • Adams only had 2 catches last week, after a big Week 1 debut with the Raiders, so we are also playing on a bounce back and the team focusing on getting him the ball early.
  • With Renfrow out (tied for 2nd-most targets on team so far), that opens up more target opportunities and increases the odds of slot usage for Adams.
  • Last week, Bills WR Stefon Diggs also lit up this Titans secondary, which is missing multiple pass rushers.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:09am ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Chase Edmonds Over 31.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lost: 21 yards

Bills at Dolphins

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Chase Edmonds rushes for more than 31 yards in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • With the Bills' defense depleted and focused on stopping the explosive Miami WRs, there will be opportunities for Edmonds to make plays and also get rushing volume to keep the Bills' offense off the field.
  • Our projection is for 42.6 yards for Edmonds, more than 10 yards of value.
  • Edmonds has 17 rush attempts, leading Miami so far, but is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry through two weeks, well below his career 4.6 YPC, also providing some value on positive regression in his yards per rush against this prop.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:15am ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Bengals -6.0 -114

Won: 27-12

Bengals at Jets

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Cincinnati Bengals win by more than 6 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated model pick against the spread on Sunday morning, at 55.3% cover odds.
  • This line has been moving up from 4.5 points earlier in the week.
  • We like the matchup of the Bengals WR against the Jets secondary, as the Jets haven't faced a high volume of passes so far because they have trailed most of the both games, but they rank in the bottom 5 in net yards allowed.
  • The Bengals WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a matchup problem, and the Bengals should have an opportunity for big plays.
  • Cincinnati's 0-2 start, and their loss last year in an upset at the Jets, should have them focused and ready to play aggressively in this game.

Pick published: Sep 25 11:20am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

NFL Spread

Colts +6.5 -110

Won: 20-17

Chiefs at Colts

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Indianapolis Colts win the game or lose by fewer than 7 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Colts a 52.6% chance of covering this line.
  • The Chiefs are an extremely popular pick so far. In spread pool data from PoolGenius, 84% of the public is taking the Chiefs -6.5, easily the largest discrepancy so far this year, and an indication of public sentiment on this game.
  • So far this year, teams with >70% ATS pool pick popularity are 2-5 ATS.
  • Indianapolis is coming off getting shutout by the Jacksonville Jaguars, in a game where they were missing their top two wide receivers (Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce).
  • Since the start of the 2017 season, teams coming off getting shutout the week before are 19-9-3 ATS.
  • The Indianapolis passing game was horrific without Michael Pittman, but we are grabbing this on the likelihood that he is back for Week 3. Rookie Alec Pierce, who also missed the last game with a concussion, profiles as the deep threat for this offense.

Pick published: Sep 21 12:38pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel.

Rot# 472

NFL Spread

Panthers +3.0 -110

Won: 22-14

Saints at Panthers

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Carolina Panthers win the game or lose by fewer than 3 points in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is a playable spread pick according to our Decision Tree, Similar Games, and Predictive Ratings models. 
  • We want to jump on this line before it gets too pricey at the 3-point spread, or moves below a FG. Right now, most books have the juice heavier on taking the underdog, so shop around.
  • Carolina has lost two close games to start 0-2, but rank 3rd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense.
  • Saints QB Jameis Winston was revealed to play on Sunday with four fractured vertebrae, and he took 6 sacks while also throwing 3 interceptions and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt on Sunday against Tampa Bay.
  • Winston was 1-for-7 with two interceptions on passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play for Sunday's game. 
  • So we are playing on the Panthers' D and against Winston's health status and ability to make throws while playing through the back injury.
     

Pick published: Sep 20 10:07am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 468

NFL Moneyline

Texans To Win +125

Lost: 20-23

Texans at Bears

Sun Sep 25 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Houston Texans win the game in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • This is our highest rated value against the Moneyline, according to the Ensemble Forecast model.
  • While neither of these teams have been very good on offense so far in 2022, and are among the bottom teams in the NFL, the Bears' passing offense has been downright putrid.
  • Chicago QB Justin Fields has taken a sack on over 15% of his dropbacks, and the Bears have totaled 153 net passing yards in two games. 
  • Given that the spread is under the 3 points currently, at 2.5, the better value is to just play the Texans to win outright in Texans' head coach Lovie Smith's return to Chicago, where he coached from 2004-2012. 

Pick published: Sep 20 9:53am ET, available at that time at PointsBet, DraftKings.

Rot# 477

NCAAF Spread

UCLA -21.5 -110

Won: 45-17

UCLA at Colorado

Sat Sep 24 • 2:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UCLA wins the game by 22 or more points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • *This is one of our top-rated playable spread picks this week in college football (56.4% cover odds)
  • Colorado has been easily the worst major conference team in FBS, losing by 25 to TCU, 31 to Air Force, and 42 to Minnesota.
  • They cannot pass the ball (barely over 4 yards per attempt) but make up for it by not being able to stop the run at all. Colorado is allowing 363 rushing yards a game, dead last in FBS.
  • UCLA is averaging over 200 yards rushing per game, and has a big advantage on the lines in this game, where they rank top 30 in both rushing yards gained and allowed so far.

Pick published: Sep 22 2:03pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 367

NCAAF Spread

Kansas -7.5 +100

Won: 35-27

Duke at Kansas

Sat Sep 24 • 12:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kansas wins the game by more than 7 points in Week 4.

Staff notes:

  • This is not a model pick (50.2% cover odds by our models) but is a staff pick based on how Kansas has looked so far this year.
  • This Kansas team is the story of the year so far, and has had a major breakout from how bad the program has been for a decade, in head coach Lance Leipold's second year with the program.
  • From 2012 to 2021, Kansas went 11-97 SU and 42-63-3 ATS and was the worst major program in FBS.
  • However, they beat Texas toward the end of last year, and then played well in the last two games (two close losses and covers).
  • Kansas has started this year with impressive road wins at West Virginia and Houston. They've now covered five straight games, spanning this year and last, by an average of 22.3 points.
  • The Jayhawks have scored 48 or more points in all three wins so far this year, and currently rank 3rd in the nation in scoring.
  • So we are jumping on the momentum of this program, as being much better than the preseason power ratings and expectations (priors) and providing value still because of that, against the market.

Pick published: Sep 22 2:03pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 362

NFL Player Prop

Kirk Cousins Under 279.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 221 yards

Vikings at Eagles

Mon Sep 19 • 8:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Kirk Cousins passes for fewer than 280 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • The Over/Under has been moving down in this game, from the 51.5 points earlier last week to now at 49.0 points.
  • As a result, our player prop model which uses both spread and total as inputs has Kirk Cousins down to 255.2 passing yards, over 24 yards of value on the Under. 
  • Cousins passed for 277 yards in Week 1.
  • So far this year, when our model is 20 or more yards Under the passing yard prop line, QBs are 5-2 on the Under, and official Staff Picks on game pass yards props are 2-1 in 2022. 

Pick published: Sep 19 1:50pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Player Prop

Stefon Diggs Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -110

Won: 148 yards

Titans at Bills

Mon Sep 19 • 7:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Stefon Diggs has at least 75 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • We show slight value on Diggs at this prop line in a neutral situation with all Bills WR active.
  • However, news came out yesterday that fellow starting WR Gabe Davis injured his ankle in practice on Saturday, and Mike Garofolo of NFL Network described him as "more on the doubtful side of questionable."
  • Our projected target share for Davis on the year is 19.7%, and the betting market has him at about 19% of Allen's pass yard prop right now, so Davis being out or limited opens up a bigger target share opportunity for Diggs in this game.
  • So we will grab this line before news is finalized on Davis, since the price is fine even if Davis plays with the injury, but will be great value if he is out.
  • (You can also play the Gabe Davis yardage prop Under, but if he is inactive that becomes a No Bet and the upside isn't there as much as a result).

     

Pick published: Sep 19 1:23pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Spread

Falcons +10.5 -107

Won: 27-31

Falcons at Rams

Sun Sep 18 • 4:05pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Falcons lose by fewer than 11 points or beat the Rams by any score in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model give the Falcons a 53.5% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Rams really struggled on the offensive line in the season opener, as Stafford was sacked seven times (in 48 drop backs) and they averaged less than three yards per carry.
  • There are also concerns about the offense, receiver depth, and running back situation, for a team laying so many points.
  • Atlanta blew a late 26-10 lead against New Orleans, but was a pleasant surprise in Week 1.
  • The Falcons gained over 400 yards against the Saints defense, and the defense also frustrated the Saints for three quarters, sacking Jameis Winston four times. Atlanta lost the game by a point but won first downs 26 to 18.
  • Given all the Matthew Stafford offseason elbow news, the way the Rams looked on offense in the opener, and the Falcons showing signs of life, we are adding this early pick above the key number of 10 points.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 277

NFL Spread

Patriots -1.0 -110

Won: 17-14

Patriots at Steelers

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Patriots beat the Steelers by at least 2 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives New England a 55.2% chance of covering the spread.
  • New England is coming off a loss in the opener, and Belichick is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 2 coming off an opening loss.
  • Pittsburgh was atrocious on offense last week, but got the win over Cincinnati thanks to a +5 turnover margin and several kicking miscues.
  • The Steelers also lost 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt to a torn pectoral muscle.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 275

NFL Spread

Jets +6.0 -110

Won: 31-30

Jets at Browns

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Jets lose by fewer than 6 points or beat the Browns by any score in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives the Jets a 54.9% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Jets lost by 15 to the Ravens but out-gained Baltimore by over 100 yards in the opener, and were ahead in yards even before the late fourth quarter garbage time.
  • They were done in by a couple of big passing plays from Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, but this week's opponent with QB Jacoby Brissett lacks a potent passing game.
  • The Browns averaged 4.3 yards per pass attempt in the win at Carolina, a year after Brissett averaged a woeful 5.7 yards per attempt as a replacement starter in Miami.
  • We'll play against the favorite with a bad passing attack that likes to grind things out, and on the team that performed better in Week 1 than the score indicates.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 265

NFL Player Prop

Joe Burrow Under 267.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 199 yards

Bengals at Cowboys

Sun Sep 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: Joe Burrow passes for fewer than 268 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our projected passing yards for Burrow is 239.4, about 28 yards of Under value, the largest passing Under compared to our model projections for Week 2.
  • Burrow threw 53 pass attempts last week, and for over 300 yards, but that was in a game where the Bengals trailed all game and were chasing to catch up.
  • He also threw four interceptions, and we anticipate that the Bengals may be a little more conservative today coming off those interceptions and playing an opponent in Dallas, who is starting a backup quarterback.

Pick published: Sep 18 8:53am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards -110

Lost: 43 yards

Panthers at Giants

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: D.J. Moore has at least 59 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our models have both sides projected for over the passing prop numbers in this game, but see the biggest individual value on Moore's Over for yards.
  • We project Moore for 71.2 receiving yards, a value of 12.7 yards over the prop.
  • Moore had only 43 yards on 3 catches (6 targets) last week as fellow WR Robbie Anderson had the biggest game and caught a 75-yard bomb from new QB Baker Mayfield.
  • However, Moore is one of the best young receivers in the game, and has had 59 or more receiving yards in 31 of 48 games started since the start of the 2019 season, so this number seems a little low and maybe an (over)reaction to one game with Mayfield at QB.

Pick published: Sep 18 8:55am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Receiving Yards -125

Lost: 9 yards

Colts at Jaguars

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Jonathan Taylor has at least 17 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Taylor had 14 receiving yards last week, but did have four receptions and seven total targets in the passing game.
  • Washington running backs (the team that played Jacksonville last week) had 10 combined catches for 92 receiving yards.
  • With star WR Michael Pittman out, it's not clear which other WRs will see the biggest target opportunities, but one projectable thing is that Taylor will be on the field for a lot of snaps, and more targets should be funneled to the backs with Pittman not playing.

 

Pick published: Sep 18 8:56am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Khalil Herbert Over 23.5 Rushing Yards -115

Won: 38 yards

Bears at Packers

Sun Sep 18 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Khalil Herbert rushes for at least 24 yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Herbert had 9 rush attempts to 17 for David Montgomery, but Herbert was more explosive, leading the Bears with 45 rush yards to Montgomery's 26 in Week 1.
  • Herbert also had a higher YPC than Montgomery last year (4.2 to 3.8) as a rookie.
  • There were plenty of rumblings in the offseason about Herbert gaining a bigger role, with the Bears having a new coaching staff, and Montgomery was even taking special teams reps.
  • Based on our preseason projection percentages for the Bears' backfield and the projected team yards in this game, we project Herbert for 34.5 rush yards, an 11-yard value.
  • There's also a real possibility that Herbert continues to add more rushing share and close the gap with Montgomery on opportunities coming off last week's performance.

 

Pick published: Sep 18 8:58am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Over/Under

Bengals at Cowboys Under 42.0 -110

Won: 37 points

Sun Sep 18 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bengals and Cowboys combine for fewer than 42 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives this game a 54.8% chance of going Under, the largest Under value of Week 2.
  • This is a correlated bet with our Joe Burrow Under on Passing Yards in the player props.
  • Coming off a week with four interceptions, we project Cincinnati to be more balanced and conservative, especially playing against Dallas starting Cooper Rush at QB.
  • This line has already been moving at some books this morning, with about half showing the total now at 41.5 points.

Pick published: Sep 18 9:20am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 282

NFL Over/Under

Buccaneers at Saints Under 44.0 -107

Won: 30 points

Sun Sep 18 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Bucs and Saints combine for fewer than 44 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model gives this game a 54.3% chance of going Under.
  • In addition, we are adding this as a staff pick based on the player news.
  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Bucs WR Chris Godwin are both out. Bucs WR Julio Jones is a game-time decision. And while Bucs WR Mike Evans, WR Russell Gage, and RB Leonard Fournette are all expected to play, they have all been on the injury report and missed practices this week.

Pick published: Sep 18 9:22am ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 272

NCAAF Spread

Texas-San Antonio +12.0 -110

Lost: 20-41

Texas-San Antonio at Texas

Sat Sep 17 • 8:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: UTSA loses by fewer than 12 points or beats Texas by any score in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model also gives UTSA a 53.5% chance of covering the spread.
  • This pick is all about Texas coming off the Alabama close loss, and injuries.
  • Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said after the Alabama game that they didn't lose, they just ran out of time. (Same about all our non-covering bets.)
  • Sarkisian has called several key injuries "day-to-day" but college coaches don't have to disclose injury reports and risk fines like NFL coaches. Multiple reports say Texas starting QB Quinn Ewers is out 4-6 weeks, and backup Hudson Card struggled late with an ankle injury that hurt his mobility. 
  • Given the injury uncertainty issues and Texas coming off a physical game with Alabama and playing a good UTSA squad, we'll take the points.

Pick published: Sep 13 4:30pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 193

NCAAF Spread

Brigham Young +3.5 -107

Lost: 20-41

Brigham Young at Oregon

Sat Sep 17 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: BYU loses by fewer than 4 points or beats Oregon by any score in Week 3.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has BYU with a 53.2% chance of covering this game.
  • After two weeks, our predictive ratings have BYU as the better team on a neutral field, compared to Oregon, by 5.9 points, as BYU has moved up to No. 15 in our rankings.
  • BYU's pass defense has been tough through two games, allowing only 154.5 yards per game through the air against South Florida and Baylor.
  • This +3.5 line is commonly available, at -110 juice at most books.

Pick published: Sep 15 2:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 151

NCAAF Over/Under

Brigham Young at Oregon Under 58.0 -107

Lost: 61 points

Sat Sep 17 • 3:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: BYU and Oregon combine for fewer than 58 points scored.

Staff notes:

  • Our Decision Tree Model has this rated as the top playable Over/Under for the week in college football, with a 56.0% chance of going Under.
  • BYU's pass defense is allowing just over 5.0 yards per pass, and just beat Baylor 26-20, with the game reaching only 46 points despite going to OT.
  • Oregon exploded for 70 points against FCS Eastern Washington last week, but only scored 3 points in the opener against Georgia in head coach Dan Lanning's debut with the Ducks.
  • BYU's defense is undervalued and they are a top 20 caliber team that will present a much tougher matchup for Oregon than last week, providing value on both the Under and the Spread.

Pick published: Sep 15 2:37pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

Rot# 152

NFL Player Prop

Mike Williams Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -120

Won: 113 Yards

Chargers at Chiefs

Thu Sep 15 • 8:15pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mike Williams has at least 67 receiving yards in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Chargers WR Mike Williams is coming off a disappointing 2 catches for 10 yards in the season opener.
  • Williams has gone over 67 receiving yards in 5 of the last 8 matchups with KC, including a 7 catch, 122 yard, 2 TD game in the first contest of 2021.
  • Williams' partner, WR Keenan Allen, is missing this game with a hamstring injury, opening up more target opportunities for Williams.
  • Chiefs rookie starting CB Trent McDuffie was just placed on the IR with a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1, impacting the Chiefs' secondary.
  • We have a slight lean on the Chargers' passing total going over in this one, but see the biggest value on Williams, who we project for 77.5 receiving yards with Allen out.

Pick published: Sep 15 2:45pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Spread

Steelers +6.5 -110

Won: 23-20

Steelers at Bengals

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Steelers lose by fewer than 7 points or beat the Bengals by any score in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Steelers a 56% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Steelers-Bengals rivalry is one that has shown no home field advantage over a lengthy period of time. Since 2002, the home team is only 17-25 SU and 17-24-1 ATS in this series.
  • Pittsburgh is 18-4 SU and 15-6-1 over the last 20 years in Cincinnati, and is 6-2 SU as a road dog over that time period.

Pick published: Sep 1 5:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 461

NFL Spread

Giants +5.5 -110

Won: 21-20

Giants at Titans

Sun Sep 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Giants lose by fewer than 6 points or beat the Titans by any score in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Giants a 55% chance of covering the spread.
  • The Giants were one of our preseason over picks in our Preseason Staff Picks, while the Titans have a lot of negative red flag factors entering the season.
  • New York was substantially worse at the end of last season when QB Daniel Jones was out injured, and the team made what looks like a substantial coaching upgrade in firing Joe Judge and hiring former Bills OC Brian Daboll.
  • Tennessee overachieved expectations a year ago, going 12-5 with a point differential more in line with a 10-7 team.
  • The Titans also traded away star WR A.J. Brown this offseason, and has major turnover on offense.
  • On September 1st, DE Harold Landry, who led the team in sacks in 2021, tore his ACL and will now miss the rest of the season, adding a late impact to the team that they haven't been able to prepare for or address in the offseason.

Pick published: Sep 1 5:00pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

Rot# 477

NFL Spread

Eagles -4.5 -114

Lost: 38-35

Eagles at Lions

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Eagles beat the Lions by at least 5 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This line is moving and ranges between 4.5 to 5.5 at various books, and is also playable at -5.Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Eagles a 55% chance of covering the spread.
  • This line has been moving from the 3.5-point spread at the start of the week.
  • Lions pro bowl center Frank Ragnow is questionable with a groin injury, starting RG Tommy Kraemer hasn?t practiced all week with a back injury, and G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (25 starts the last two years) is starting the year on PUP, so Detroit could have significant interior line issues going against Philadelphia?s defense.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:30pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 465

NFL Player Prop

Baker Mayfield Over 31.5 Pass Attempts -105

Lost: 27 Attempts

Browns at Panthers

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Baker Mayfield has at least 32 pass attempts in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • You can also get 30.5 (-130) at DraftKings.
  • Our prop model for pass attempts, based on spread/total and our team stat projections, is for 35.4 pass attempts for Mayfield.
  • In seven games last year with Christian McCaffrey playing, the Panthers exceeded 32 pass attempts in five of them, including three wins. The two lowest pass attempt games came with Cam Newton at QB.
  • Baker Mayfield is playing his former team, and we anticipate that getting a healthy Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore involved in the short passing game will be a big part of the gameplay.
  • We show value on passing yards and completions as well, but the attempts prop is the highest value play here.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:56pm ET, available at that time at PointsBet.

NFL Player Prop

Elijah Moore Over 52.5 Receiving Yards -115

Lost: 49 Yards

Ravens at Jets

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Elijah Moore has at least 53 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Elijah Moore is a second-year breakout that we project as a fringe top 25 WR this year.
  • In his last 6 games played last year, he averaged 65.3 receiving yards and scored 5 touchdowns, before missing the final five weeks of the season.
  • In the only game where Joe Flacco started last year, Moore had a career-high 8 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Pick published: Sep 10 1:57pm ET, available at that time at BetMGM.

NFL Moneyline

Vikings To Win -104

Won: 23-7

Packers at Vikings

Sun Sep 11 • 4:25pm ET

More info

How it wins: The Vikings beat the Packers in Week 1.

Staff notes:

Pick published: Sep 11 7:31am ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

Rot# 476

NFL Player Prop

Tua Tagovailoa Over 231.5 Passing Yards -115

Won: 270 Yards

Patriots at Dolphins

Sun Sep 11 • 1:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tua Tagovailoa passes for at least 232 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our passing yards model based on spread/total/team projection is for 262.8 passing yards.
  • This is the largest difference between our model and the offered lines for all of Week 1, over 31 yards of value.
  • It comes down to this: either Miami is mis-priced as a favorite of 3.5 points in a game with a 46 point total, and 24.75 expected points, or this prop is too conservative.
  • Tua did pass for less than 210 yards in both games against New England last year, at low pass attempt volume, and New England was top 4 in most passing defense categories a year ago.
  • Miami added WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason, and is slightly ahead of New England in the futures markets, and is playing this game at home, so in this case, we'll go with the more robust team spread and totals market, versus a small sample of games and results from last year.

Pick published: Sep 11 7:32am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NFL Player Prop

Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 71 yards

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Sun Sep 11 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Mike Evans has at least 67 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • We are projecting Mike Evans for 78 yards in the Sunday Night Football game.
  • At least early in the season, Evans should see a larger target share than normal because of Tampa Bay's injury situation.
  • Rob Gronkowski is no longer playing, Chris Godwin is expected to be active but on a snap count in his first game back from a December ACL tear, and WR Russell Gage missed multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play on Sunday night as well.
  • Evans is the one established receiver who has worked with Brady in the past and should see a full complement of snaps.

Pick published: Sep 11 7:34am ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

NCAAF Spread

Nebraska -23.5 -110

Lost: 42-45

Georgia Southern at Nebraska

Sat Sep 10 • 7:30pm ET

More info

How it wins: Nebraska beats Georgia Southern by at least 24 points in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • This line opened at -21 earlier this week and has continued to steam upward, and we are going with that momentum.
  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model also gives Nebraska a 56.5% chance of covering the spread.
  • Meanwhile, this line is way off based on our predictive model, but that can be a negative indicator, that the market is moving because of matchup or player participation info behind the scenes.

Pick published: Sep 8 4:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet.

Rot# 392

NCAAF Moneyline

Iowa St. To Win +150

Won: 10-7

Iowa St. at Iowa

Sat Sep 10 • 4:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Iowa State beats Iowa in Week 2.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast Model has Iowa State as one of the top playable moneyline games in college football this weekend.
  • Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has had historic success at Iowa State, but one thing he has yet to do is beat Iowa, going 0-6 so far.
  • Iowa is coming off an ugly 7-3 win over South Dakota State that included two safeties and a field goal. How ugly? Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed only 11 passes on 29 drop backs (including four sacks) and averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
  • We'll take the team we have rated slightly higher on a neutral field in an upset at Iowa, and play against that terrible offensive start for Iowa.

Pick published: Sep 8 4:30pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings.

Rot# 367

NFL Player Prop

Matthew Stafford Over 270.5 Passing Yards -115

Lost: 240 Yards

Bills at Rams

Thu Sep 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Matthew Stafford passes for at least 271 yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model has the Rams/Bills Over 52.0 as a playable pick, so there's value on a higher scoring game.
  • Our player prop passing model, which utilizes the spread and total, and also our team stat projections, projects Stafford for 284.1 yards, about 14 yards of value.
  • The Bills led the NFL in net passing yards allowed last season and feasted on poor quarterbacks, but in their five highest Over/Under games (49.0 or higher) all five went over.
  • Star cornerback Tre'Davious White missed the last eight games of last year (including the playoffs) and is starting on the PUP list.
  • Patrick Mahomes (378 passing yards) and Tom Brady (363 passing yards), the two other star quarterbacks Buffalo has faced recently, both had big games against the Bills without White.

Pick published: Sep 7 6:00pm ET, available at that time at FanDuel.

NFL Player Prop

Cooper Kupp Over 89.5 Receiving Yards -115

Won: 128 Yards

Bills at Rams

Thu Sep 8 • 8:20pm ET

More info

How it wins: Cooper Kupp has at least 90 receiving yards in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • This is a correlated bet with the Stafford passing prop, for a lot of the same reasons offered above.
  • In addition, the top wide receivers paired with those elite passers had big games against the Bills, with Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans all going for at least 90 yards.
  • Further, Rams third wide receiver Van Jefferson has been ruled out for the game, and the Rams' running backs (Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson) have been nursing injuries through the preseason, so we expect a more concentrated passing attack on Kupp, Allen Robinson, and tight end Tyler Higbee in this game.
  • Kupp incredibly had 19 games last year (out of 21 total including the playoffs) where he reached 90 or more receiving yards, in his first year with Stafford at QB.

Pick published: Sep 7 6:00pm ET, available at that time at DraftKings, BetMGM.

NCAAF Run Line

Tennessee -35.5 -110

Won: 59-10

Ball St. at Tennessee

Thu Sep 1 • 7:00pm ET

More info

How it wins: Tennessee beats Ball State by at least 36 points in Week 1.

Staff notes:

  • Our Ensemble Forecast model gives the Vols a 57% chance of covering the spread.
  • This game has been getting steamed up over the last two weeks, as the spread opened at 31.5 points. Two weeks ago, it was at 32.5 points.
  • Our predictive ratings model would strongly favor Ball State, but when the line moves far off the predictive ratings model expectation, it is usually because of player or participation news, and it can be a negative indicator.
  • A week ago, the NCAA cleared WR Bru McCoy to play right away after transferring from USC. McCoy was one of the nation's top prospects before facing off-field charges that were dismissed before he transferred.
  • Ball State is replacing QB Drew Plitt, who started 45 career games, with 5'11" fifth-year senior John Paddock, who has thrown 34 total passes in four years.

Pick published: Sep 7 10:00am ET, available at that time at DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet.

Rot# 142