NFL Win Totals: The Best Quarterbacks To Bet On

No position impacts winning more than quarterback, so we analyzed how teams did against NFL win totals lines based on various QB factors.

August 31, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

We continue with our deep dive into NFL season win totals by turning to the quarterbacks. In our first article, we focused on the head coaches.

Now we turn to the most important position on the football field, as quarterbacks can have an outsized impact on team performance. In this article, we will look into how teams do compared to preseason expectations based on a variety of quarterback characteristics. These include the quarterback’s age, whether the quarterback is a rookie or veteran, whether the quarterback is with a new team or not, and how many games the quarterback started for the same team the previous season.

Results Based on Projected NFL Quarterback Status

For this section, we are looking forward, based on the most likely scenario at the outset of the season. Injuries happen and can change the fortunes of teams during the season. So when we talk about the projected quarterback, this is generally the quarterback expected to throw the most passes for the team in the upcoming season. This is often quite clear, and is usually the opening day starter. However, there are some situations involving rookie first round quarterbacks where a veteran may start opening day, but based on history, we can estimate that the first round quarterback will end up with more playing time by the end of the season. Whether the rookie is treated as the projected starter depends on the other options on the roster in those specific cases.

This first table shows the results for the season, based on the projected quarterback status. These include:

• rookie starting quarterbacks;
• quarterbacks who were on the roster previously, but were not the primary starter the year before;
• quarterbacks who were the primary starter for the same team the year before; and
• veteran quarterbacks who were brought in to start, but who played for a different team a year earlier.

That second category includes both young drafted guys, veteran backups who move into a starting role, and quarterbacks who are coming off injury, which meant a different quarterback played more in the previous season.

As with our coach-focused article, we’re using data from the 2003 through 2020 seasons.

Projected Primary Starter	Number	Win Total Avg	Actual Wins	Difference	Over Percentage
Is a Rookie QB	37	6.00	6.69	+0.69	52.7%
Was not primary starter last year, but on roster	59	7.53	8.01	+0.48	56.8%
Was primary starter last year, but started 11 or fewer games	60	7.77	7.83	+0.06	55.8%
Was primary starter last year, and started 12+ games	351	8.72	8.41	-0.31	46.9%
Is a Veteran QB who was on a different roster last year	69	7.20	6.78	-0.48	45.7%

When the team’s passing stats from the previous season were driven mostly by someone else other than this year’s projected starter, that can provide some value against the win total. Both rookie quarterbacks and quarterbacks in situations where they were already on the team, but did not play enough to be the main starter, have been situations where the Over has been profitable in the recent past. The latter includes new or emerging starter situations like Patrick Mahomes in 2018 or Lamar Jackson in 2019. It also includes return-from-injury situations like Ben Roethlisberger for Pittsburgh in 2020, or Carson Palmer coming back in 2015 after suffering a knee injury after six games the previous year.

Even among quarterbacks who were the primary passers the year before, those who played relatively fewer games the year before performed better against the win total the next season.

The one exception to the “teams with a different quarterback fare better against the win total” is veterans moving to a new team. We’ll discuss that group as well as look at the group of starters who had played in at least 12 games for the same team, in the sections below.

Returning NFL Quarterback Starters Based on Age

This table shows that subset of quarterbacks who were the main starter the year before for the same franchise, and had started at least 12 games. It looks at how their teams did the next season against the win total by age.

Age	Number	Win Total Avg	Actual Wins	Difference	Over Percentage
24 or under	48	7.80	7.21	-0.59	43.8%
25 to 28	119	8.71	8.81	+0.10	50.8%
29 to 32	100	8.88	8.27	-0.61	43.0%
33 to 36	56	8.93	8.12	-0.81	39.3%
37 and older	28	9.34	9.84	+0.50	64.3%

Old starters have been a value in recent years, and this group is heavily populated by seasons from future Hall of Famers like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner, and last year Aaron Rodgers.

Outside of that, the teams with returning starters have underperformed expectations more often than not, as regression factors come into play. These were often teams that had pretty good health at quarterback the year before.

New Veteran NFL Quarterback Starters Based on Age

Finally, here is that subset of teams that had a new projected starting quarterback who was not on the team roster the year prior.

Age	Number	Win Total Avg	Actual Wins	Difference	Over Percentage
28 or younger	20	7.24	6.53	-0.71	42.1%
29 to 32	18	7.28	6.58	-0.70	33.3%
33 to 36	21	6.86	6.81	-0.05	45.2%
37 or older	10	7.66	7.10	-0.56	70.0%

Teams going with younger “veterans” who are playing for a new team have fared poorly in recent years against the win total, covering the over less than 40% of the time. While everyone sees potential in the younger guys, there are often reasons why these players become available and leave another franchise, and the majority do not pan out.

Here are the youngest “veteran” QBs who we have noted as the projected starter for a new franchise since 2003, age 28 or younger:

• Jacoby Brissett, age 25, Indianapolis 2016
• Robert Griffin III, age 26, Cleveland 2017
• Jay Cutler, age 26, Chicago 2009
• Tyrod Taylor, age 26, Buffalo 2015
• Nick Foles, age 26, St. Louis 2015
• Brock Osweiler, age 26, Houston 2016
• Matt Schaub, age 26, Houston 2007
• Drew Brees, age 27, New Orleans 2006
• A.J. Feeley, age 27, Miami 2004
• Derek Anderson, age 27, Arizona 2010
• Kevin Kolb, age 27, Arizona 2011
• Matt Cassel, age 27, Kansas City 2009
• Kyle Orton, age 27, Denver 2009
• Sam Bradford, age 28, Philadelphia 2015
• Josh McCown, age 28, Oakland 2007
• Teddy Bridgewater, age 28, Carolina 2020
• Tavaris Jackson, age 28, Seattle 2011

Drew Brees, who became available because of a shoulder injury and the Chargers having drafted Philip Rivers two years earlier, is a notable boom out of this group. There are lots of forgettable tenures, though.

2021 NFL Quarterbacks

Here is a brief rundown of the 2021 quarterback outlook.

Back Again

These starters played at least 12 games and are back with the same team in 2021. In our historical sample, teams with this type of quarterback tended to beat their season win total when the QB was on the old side (37 or older, indicated below with by “*”) but underperform otherwise:

• Josh Allen (Buffalo)
• Tom Brady* (Tampa Bay)
• Derek Carr (Las Vegas)
• Kirk Cousins (Minnesota)
• Justin Herbert (LA Chargers)
• Lamar Jackson (Baltimore)
• Daniel Jones (NY Giants)
• Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City)
• Baker Mayfield (Cleveland)
• Kyler Murray (Arizona)
• Aaron Rodgers* (Green Bay)
• Ben Roethlisberger* (Pittsburgh)
• Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
• Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee)
• Russell Wilson (Seattle)

Coming Back from Injury

These quarterbacks played in 11 or fewer games in 2020 but are expected to return as the starter for the same team in 2021. Historically, teams like this have performed roughly in line with their season win total lines.

• Joe Burrow (Cincinnati) – 10 games played
• Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco) – 6 games played
• Dak Prescott (Dallas) – 5 games played

Old Faces, New Places

This year has a lot of quarterbacks in new places thanks to trades and player movement in free agency. Here are some potential veteran faces that could be starting in new places in 2021. In our historical data, these teams tended to do slightly worse than their season win total lines would indicate.

• Teddy Bridgewater (Denver)
• Andy Dalton (Chicago)
• Sam Darnold (Carolina)
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (Washington)
• Jared Goff (Detroit)
• Matthew Stafford (LA Rams)
• Tyrod Taylor (Houston)
• Carson Wentz (Indianapolis)

Taking Over

After a season where they may have started some games for the same franchise and platooned at the position (but started 11 or fewer games), these quarterbacks could be the main starter in 2021. Teams in this situation have tended to slightly overperform their season win total lines.

• Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia)
• Tua Tagovailoa (Miami)
• Jameis Winston (New Orleans)

Rookies

Finally, here are rookies who were drafted highly enough that they could be the main starter for their team in 2021, even if they aren’t the opening week starter. As with the Taking Over section, teams with this type of quarterback have tended to do a bit better than their season win total line.

• Justin Fields (Chicago)
• Mac Jones (New England)
• Trey Lance (San Francisco)
• Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville)
• Zach Wilson (NY Jets)

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