NFL Week 1 Mega Preview: Breaking Down All 16 Games (2021)

Our NFL Week 1 preview features over 7,000 words of analysis, news, injuries and predictions to get you ready for start of the 2021 season.

Tom Brady and the Bucs kick off the season against Dallas. (Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire).

NFL Week 1 of the 2021 season starts Thursday, Sept. 9 with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to face the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here’s a numbers-driven preview of all 16 games, including the latest news, spreads, picks, odds, stats, injuries, preseason outlooks, betting trends, and more.

We dare you to read it all!

Links to Game Previews

Dallas at Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh at Buffalo | NY Jets at Carolina | Jacksonville at Houston | Arizona at Tennessee | LA Chargers at Washington | Philadelphia at Atlanta | Seattle at Indianapolis | Minnesota at Cincinnati | San Francisco at Detroit | Cleveland at Kansas City | Miami at New England | Denver at NY Giants | Green Bay at New Orleans | Chicago at LA Rams | Baltimore at Las Vegas

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1. Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Time: Thursday, Sept. 9 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: Tampa Bay -7.5

News & Notes

The season opener features two teams coming off very different seasons. The Cowboys were one of the biggest disappointments of 2020, finishing 6-10 thanks to a rash of injuries and a defense that allowed a whopping 473 points, fifth-most in the NFL. The Bucs won the Super Bowl, in case you were unaware.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are set to get Dak Prescott back from a major ankle injury, although he sat out the preseason due to a minor shoulder problem. Their offensive line also enters the year healthy after multiple injuries last season. Dallas’ offensive weapons remain arguably the best in football, with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup at wideout and Ezekiel Elliott at running back.

The Cowboys also hired former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn as their new defensive coordinator. He will have his hands full with a unit that underwent some turnover in the offseason, but he also has some interesting young talent to work with, led by first-round LB Micah Parsons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Meanwhile, Bucs GM Jason Licht was somehow able to bring back all 22 starters from his Super Bowl squad.

Tom Brady continues to hold off Father Time at age 44 and exceeded most expectations after moving on from New England last season. He still has an embarrassment of riches around him, led by WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and TE Rob Gronkowski.

The defense that wreaked havoc in the Super Bowl is also back in full force, with stars at all three levels and ascending young talents in LB Devin White and S Antoine Winfield Jr. The Bucs are hoping to extend their eight-game winning streak dating back to last season.

Betting Blurbs

  • Super Bowl Champs: The defending Super Bowl champion is 8-3 SU and 6-3-2 ATS in their season opener over the last 11 years.
  • Dallas Disaster: Dallas had the worst ATS record in the league at 5-11 last season, including 3-9 against NFC opponents.

Season Outlook

The Bucs open the year No. 2 in our predictive ratings, but their 15% chance to win the Super Bowl is tops in the league. The Cowboys are the projected in a virtual tie with Washington (31% chance) to win the NFC East, though they rank middle of the pack in our predictive ratings at No. 17.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Tampa Bay (77.5% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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2. Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Buffalo -6.5

News & Notes

Pittsburgh and Buffalo both got off to great starts in 2020, but only one finished on a high note. It wasn’t the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite beginning the 2020 season with 11 consecutive wins, the Steelers are coming off a year that they’d like to forget. They sputtered late in the season, losing four of their final five regular-season games, and they were manhandled by the rival Browns in the Wild Card Round.

The Steelers didn’t exactly seem excited about bringing QB Ben Roethlisberger back for his 18th year, and they did move on from OC Randy Fichtner, RB James Conner, and several notable offensive linemen. The offense could have a new look with OC Matt Canada and first-round rookie RB Najee Harris as the team tries to protect the 39-year-old Roethlisberger. A year ago, Pittsburgh led the NFL in pass attempts while finishing dead last in rushing yards.

On defense, the Steelers allowed the league’s third-fewest points last season. Despite the notable offseason losses of OLB Bud Dupree and CBs Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton, they still have plenty of elite talent such as OLB T.J. Watt and LB Devin Bush Jr. 

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo was one of the biggest breakout teams of 2020, finally getting over the hump to win the AFC East and advancing to the AFC Championship Game on the heels of QB Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber play. Allen will be out to prove last year wasn’t a fluke after he raised his completion rate by more than 10%. He will have most of the same supporting cast, led by all-world WR Stefon Diggs.

The Bills’ defense did regress a bit last year, ranking 16th in points allowed during the regular season. The pass rush was atop their priority list in the draft, as they took DEs Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. in the first two rounds, and they still have young anchors LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Tre’Davious White.

Betting Blurbs

  • Sean McDermott: The Bills head coach has the third-best ATS record in the league since becoming head coach in 2017, at 38-28-3 (57.6%).
  • Home run: Buffalo was 7-3 ATS at home in 2020.
  • Underdog dominance: The Steelers are 44-22-3 (64.5%) ATS as underdogs since Mike Tomlin was hired in 2007.

Season Outlook

The Bills rank No. 5 in our predictive ratings, while the Steelers are No. 14, trailing by 2.9 points. Both teams have fair chances to return to the playoffs, with the Bills projected at 73%, as well as a 6% chance to win the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has a 39% chance to make the playoffs and only a 2% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Buffalo (67.9% win odds)

Matchup
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Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
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3. New York Jets at Carolina Panthers

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Carolina -5.0

News & Notes

We didn’t have to wait long for the Sam Darnold Bowl as the former third overall pick for the New York Jets immediately faces his old team as the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina seemingly believes Darnold’s an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater, and he has the supporting cast to make some noise with a healthy Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. catching passes.

The Panthers’ defense was developing last year after they lost several stars and spent all of their 2020 draft picks on that side of the ball. They were active in free agency, adding LB Haason Reddick, and they also added first-round CB Jaycee Horn to DE Brian Burns and DT Derrick Brown. The youth and new faces could still make the unit a work in progress, but the defense isn’t without talent.

New York Jets

The Jets closed the book on the disastrous Adam Gase era this offseason, hiring new head coach Robert Saleh and drafting BYU QB Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick. The franchise has five consecutive losing seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs since 2010. That seems unlikely to change this year with a rookie under center, but the roster should be improved after adding WR Corey Davis and rookies WR Elijah Moore and OG Alijah Vera-Tucker this offseason.

The defense is Saleh’s specialty, but he could have his hands full with a unit that allowed nearly 29 points per game last season. New York has already lost free-agent signing DE Carl Lawson for the season, but it did add DT Sheldon Rankins and OLB Jarrad Davis along with the return of MLB C.J. Mosley from his 2020 opt-out.

Betting Blurbs

  • Goodbye Gase: The Jets were a league-worst 18-29-1 (38.3%) ATS over the last three seasons.
  • Home-Away split: Carolina was just 2-6 SU and ATS at home last season but was 7-1 ATS on the road.

Season Outlook

Both teams enter the season near the bottom of our predictive ratings, with the Panthers at No. 27 and the Jets at No. 30. Carolina has only a 25% chance to make the playoffs with 7.3 projected wins, while New York has a 12% chance to end its playoff drought with a projected 6.0 wins.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Carolina (62.6% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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4. Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Jacksonville -3.0

News & Notes

Houston and Jacksonville experienced different types of historic futility in 2020, and both should look very different this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars earned the No. 1 overall pick in the draft after nosediving to 1-15 and selected Clemson star QB Trevor Lawrence. They also hired college coaching legend Urban Meyer to replace Doug Marrone.

Jags fans have significantly more to look forward to with Lawrence throwing to a bevy of talented weapons that include WR DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., and Marvin Jones Jr. Jacksonville did lose rookie first-round pick RB Travis Etienne for the season to a foot injury, but it is in good hands at running back with sophomore RB James Robinson.

The Jags averaged only 19.1 points per game last season, so it won’t take much to improve upon that. They also went to the free-agency well to bolster their defense, adding DE Jihad Ward and CB Shaquill Griffin, among others.

Houston Texans

Houston continued cleaning house this offseason by releasing franchise DE J.J. Watt. QB Deshaun Watson also reportedly wants to leave Houston, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, but allegations of sexual misconduct have complicated trade discussions.

Houston will likely turn to veteran QB Tyrod Taylor to replace Watson. He gets a chance to start for his fourth team in five years, with previous stops in Buffalo, Cleveland, and the Chargers. First-round rookies replaced him fairly early at his last two stops, but Houston doesn’t have a top prospect to supplant him.

The Texans still have Brandin Cooks at wide receiver, though Will Fuller V is now in Miami. They might have tipped their hand regarding their offensive strategy by signing RBs Phillip LindsayMark Ingram II, and Rex Burkhead to join David Johnson.

Houston’s defense was an even bigger nightmare than the offense last season, allowing 29 points per game. However, a relative lack of cap space and draft picks limited its ability to upgrade in the offseason. The Texans did bring in pass-rusher DT Maliek Collins to help offset the loss of Watt.

Betting Blurbs

  • A bad run: Jacksonville has the second-worst ATS record over the last three seasons at 19-27-2 (41.3%).
  • Tougher in the division: The Jags had only one win last season, but they were 4-2 ATS against AFC South division opponents.
  • Tyrod Taylor: The journeyman doesn’t get much fanfare, but he has a winning record as a starter at 24-21-1.

Season Outlook

Our predictive ratings expect another long year for both franchises. The Jaguars rank 29th, while the Texans are dead last by a significant margin entering the year. If fans are looking for reason to be hopeful, we give the Jags a 23% chance to make the playoffs, but Houston’s odds look bleak at 4%.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Jacksonville (65.0% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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5. Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Tennessee -3.0

News & Notes

This interconference matchup between the Cardinals and Titans features two teams with high hopes for 2021 after making major moves this offseason.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals added former Defensive Player of the Year DE J.J. Watt to their defensive line, and they also acquired CB Malcolm Butler, first-round LB Zaven Collins, and WR A.J. Green. 

Arizona faces major pressure to improve in its third year with head coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray. The team finished 8-8 last season despite ranking in the top half of the league in points scored and points allowed, and a preseason line of over/under 8.0 wins in the new 17-game season doesn’t show much optimism from Vegas.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans improved to 11 wins last season after four consecutive 9-7 finishes, but they must contend with the losses of OC Arthur Smith, WR Corey Davis, and TE Jonnu Smith along with the rebuilt secondary.

Tennessee traded for future Hall of Fame WR Julio Jones and revamped its defense with OLB Bud Dupree, CB Janoris Jenkins, and first-round CB Caleb Farley. The Titans need more from a defense that allowed more than 27 points per game last season, but the new faces might get off to a slow start.

Betting Blurbs

  • About Average: Despite a solid 31-21 SU record since Mike Vrabel’s hiring in 2018, the Titans are only 25-26-1 ATS.
  • Points over expected: Tennessee had a 12-4-1 over record last season, second-highest in the NFL.
  • Arizona Away: The Cardinals are 7-3-2 ATS as road underdogs under Kliff Kingsbury.

Season Outlook

The Cardinals (41%) don’t have a great chance to make the playoffs, but our projections are more optimistic about the Titans (60%). The Week 1 matchup looks evenly matched, as evidenced by the early point spread.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Tennessee (59.5% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
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6. Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Los Angeles -1.0

News & Notes

Things are looking up for both franchises after last season. Chargers QB Justin Herbert is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year and has been one of the most hyped quarterbacks of the offseason. On the opposite end of the age spectrum, Washington turns to 38-year-old QB Ryan Fitzpatrick after two eventful seasons in Miami.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers hired former Rams DC Brandon Staley as their new head coach instead of an offensive-minded coach to help develop Herbert. The Rams allowed the fewest points in the league under Staley last season, and he now inherits a defense that ranked 10th-worst in points allowed in 2020 and has room for improvement there.

The Chargers defense has brought back most of the same talent as last year, with the notable exceptions of LB Melvin Ingram and CB Casey Hayward. They’re hoping for better health from stars DE Joey Bosa and S Derwin James.

They Chargers lost TE Hunter Henry in free agency, but they were able to replace him with Jared Cook. They also markedly improved their offensive line by adding OC Corey Linsley, OG Matt Feiler, and rookie LT Rashawn Slater. Herbert built a rapport with WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last year, and he’ll now have rookie third-rounder Josh Palmer in the mix as well.

Washington Football Team

Washington’s surprising NFC East title last year was built on defense. The team ranked fourth in points allowed during the regular season.

The unit could be even better this year with a healthy S Landon Collins and the addition of CB William Jackson and first-round LB Jamin Davis. The defensive line features four former first-round picks, headlined by 2020 first-round DE Chase Young.

Washington upgraded its receiving talent by adding former Panthers WR Curtis Samuel in free agency. He’ll join the coaching staff he played under earlier in his career.

If nothing else, the offense is likely to be more vertical with Fitzpatrick, who averaged a respectable 7.8 yards per attempt last year. Washington had an atrocious 6.3 yards per attempt as a team in 2020.

Betting Blurbs

  • Journeyman: Fitzpatrick will be starting a game for his ninth NFL franchise when he takes the field in Week 1 for Washington, but he’s only 59-86-1 as a starter for his career.
  • Tough at the Football Team: Washington had a strong 6-3 ATS record at home last season.

Season Outlook

The Chargers rank 11th in the predictive ratings going into the season. They’re projected to finish second in the AFC West and have a 47% chance to make the playoffs. Washington ranks 15th, and is a dead-even race with Dallas for the NFC East, with about a 44% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Los Angeles (51.0% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
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7. Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Atlanta -3.5

News & Notes

The Eagles and Falcons each had a long and not-so-fun offseason. They both seem to be revamping with new coaches and major personnel turnover.

Philly traded away 2016 No. 2 overall pick QB Carson Wentz after an ugly year and now turns to the more versatile Jalen Hurts under center. The Falcons still have former MVP QB Matt Ryan, but they traded star WR Julio Jones to the Titans in June.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia hired former Chargers OC Nick Sirianni to replace head coach Doug Pederson, and he does get the benefit of a much healthier offensive line this year. It also drafted former Alabama star WR DeVonta Smith to help Hurts in what could be one of the NFL’s youngest offenses at the skill positions.

While the Eagles’ sputtering offense garnered most of the attention last year, the defense was nearly as bad, ranking 20th in points allowed. They addressed some areas like safety with the addition of Anthony Harris, but they have the same core talent.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons hired former Titans OC Arthur Smith as their new head coach, but they did minimal work in free agency as they navigate out of salary-cap hell.

Atlanta’s defense has been consistently mediocre since 2018, but bringing in experienced DC Dean Pees should give fans hope. The offense got slightly younger after moving on from Jones, RB Todd Gurley, and OC Alex Mack, but it’s unclear whether it’ll be better.

Veteran RB Mike Davis gets the starting nod in the backfield after exceeding 1,000 yards from scrimmage last year in Carolina. First-round rookie TE Kyle Pitts should see plenty of work, as should new No. 1 WR Calvin Ridley.

Betting Blurbs

  • Hurts in the driver’s seat: Jalen Hurts was 1-3 SU as a starter last season but 2-2 ATS, and his first three starts all went Over the point total.
  • NFC failures: The Falcons were 4-8 ATS in games vs. NFC opponents in 2020.

Season Outlook

Our preseason predictive ratings put the Falcons and Eagles neck-and-neck, ranked 23rd and 26th. Neither team has great odds to make the playoffs, as we project Philly with a 30% chance and Atlanta with a 29% chance.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Atlanta (59.3% win odds)

Matchup
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Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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8. Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Seattle -2.5

News & Notes

The big news for this game is who will be at quarterback for Indianapolis, as an early injury scare had Carson Wentz’s status in doubt.

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle had a relatively quiet offseason after franchise QB Russell Wilson caused an early stir by griping about his pass protection. They addressed his concerns by adding OG Gabe Jackson, and the offense could also be more creative with OC Shane Waldron replacing Brian Schottenheimer. Waldron has a dynamic wideout duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett along with second-round pick Dee Eskridge.

Seattle’s defense has been far from elite in recent years, and it faces more challenges after losing DT Jarran Reed, LB K.J. Wright, and CB Shaquill Griffin this offseason. Notable losses are becoming an annual tradition for the Seahawks, but they’ve been 15th or better leaguewide in points allowed in all but one season over the past decade.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are debuting their fourth starting quarterback in four years. They hope former Eagles QB Carson Wentz will last longer than his predecessors, but he could be rusty to start the year following foot surgery.

Wentz was run out of Philadelphia this offseason despite producing near-MVP numbers in 2017. Durability issues and a deteriorating supporting cast took their toll on him, and he averaged a dreadful 6.0 yards per attempt while taking 50 sacks in 2020.

Wentz hasn’t been officially declared healthy for Week 1, but he has been trending toward starting the opener.

The Colts’ offense under head coach Frank Reich isn’t much different than the one Wentz guided in Philly, and he has a strong offensive line and running game with RB Jonathan Taylor entering his second year. Indy’s receiver production has recently been up and down, with 31-year-old WR T.Y. Hilton out to prove he has something left while youngsters Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. continue to establish themselves. (Hilton is out for the season opener because of a neck issue.)

Defense coordinator Matt Eberflus has been mentioned as a head coaching candidate in recent seasons, as the defense has ranked 10th in points allowed in two of his three years with the team. Replacing veteran DE Justin Houston with rookie Kwity Paye is a risk, as is replacing MLB Anthony Walker with other players already on the roster.

GM Chris Ballard has earned the benefit of the doubt with his past moves, and the defense’s cohesion should help. Most of the starters already have at least one year in Eberflus’ system.

Betting Blurbs

  • Carroll’s decade-long run: Seattle has the fourth-best ATS record in the NFL since hiring head coach Pete Carroll in 2010 at 102-85-7 (54.5%).
  • Poor starts: However, Seattle is 2-4 SU and ATS in Week 1 road openers with Carroll coaching and Wilson starting at QB.
  • Carson’s downturn: Wentz is 35-33-1 SU in his career as a starter, but he’s only 17-22-1 over the last three seasons (including playoffs). The Eagles were 14-26 ATS when he started and 8-3 ATS when he did not over the last three seasons.

Season Outlook

Both teams enter 2021 with high hopes and strong playoff chances. Seattle has a 55% chance to make the playoffs in the tough NFC West with a projected 9.4 wins. We project the Colts to finish second in the AFC South with 8.7 wins, and they have a 49% chance to make the playoffs (35% to win the division).

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Seattle (54.5% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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9. Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Minnesota -3.0

News & Notes

Week 1 is set to be a homecoming of sorts for Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer, who served as the Bengals’ defensive coordinator for six seasons. He’s also feeling the pressure after a disappointing 7-9 finish in 2020.

Minnesota Vikings

To bounce back, the Vikings must start by correcting their defensive issues. They regressed from the fifth-fewest points allowed during the 2019 regular season to the sixth-most points allowed last year.

The Vikings welcome back DE Danielle Hunter from injury and DT Michael Pierce from his 2020 opt-out. They’re also hoping for an improved secondary with newcomers CB Patrick Peterson, CB Bashaud Breeland, and S Xavier Woods.

The Vikings’ offense kept them in games last year, as QB Kirk Cousins dispersed the ball effectively to RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, and WR Justin Jefferson. He’ll be relying on some rookie protection with LT Christian Darrisaw and OG Wyatt Davis, but the new talent could be a good thing. The Vikings had a 7% sack rate last season, which was the 10th-worst mark in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is also facing pressure after his team went a combined 6-25-1 in his first two years.

The Bengals are getting QB Joe Burrow back from a knee injury, and they helped him by drafting former LSU teammate WR Ja’Marr Chase with the No. 5 overall pick. They were criticized for not selecting OT Penei Sewell with that pick, but they did take three offensive linemen later in the draft and signed former Viking Riley Reiff to play right tackle.

The Bengals also splurged on defense for the second consecutive offseason. Their most notable additions were DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Larry Ogunjobi, CB Chidobe Awuzie, and CB Mike Hilton.

That added depth could go a long way in digging Cincinnati out of the defensive cellar. It has ranked among the bottom 11 leaguewide in points allowed in three consecutive seasons.

Betting Blurbs

  • From A(FC) to Z(immer): The Vikings have the NFL’s second-best ATS record since hiring Zimmer in 2014. Since that time, they are 68-48-1 (58.6%). They’ve fared particularly well against the AFC under Zimmer, as they’re 19-9 ATS.
  • Bengals in the Queen City: Cincinnati had a losing record at home last season (3-5), but they were 5-3 ATS.
  • With and Without Burrow: The Bengals went 5-3-1 against the over in the nine games where Burrow played the entire game. They only went over in two of their last seven games, including failing to score double-digit points in four of them.

Season Outlook

Minnesota has a fair chance to return to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus, with 45% odds and an 8.6 win projection. The Bengals’ chances are far bleaker at only 14%, and they rank 28th overall in our preseason predictive ratings.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Minnesota (59.9% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
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10. San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: San Francisco -7.5

News & Notes

Two teams that figure to go in opposite directions this season will face off in Detroit. The Lions will start a new quarterback, while the 49ers may play both a veteran and a top rookie.

San Francisco 49ers

After representing the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, the Niners were ravaged by injuries last year and finished 6-10. This offseason, they made a huge splash in the draft by trading up to No. 3 overall to take QB Trey Lance. 

It’s unclear when Lance will take the field as the starter with Jimmy Garoppolo still around. But overall health could be the biggest determining factor in San Francisco’s 2o21 season outlook.

The 49ers lost Garoppolo, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and DE Nick Bosa, among others, for significant periods of time last season. The result was an offense that went from second to 21st in points scored during the regular season, and a defense that went from eighth to 17th.

San Francisco’s core remains intact, so a big rebound can’t be ruled out.

Detroit Lions

Unfortunately, Detroit has little hope for a similar rebound.

The Lions made a drastic change in the offseason when they traded franchise QB Matthew Stafford for QB Jared Goff and draft capital. They also curiously allowed their star wideouts to walk in free agency.

Detroit let most of its cap space accumulate rather than spend it in free agency. Many of the defensive personnel return despite finishing dead last in points and yards allowed last year.

New head coach Dan Campbell can try to rally his team all he wants, but the talent seems to be severely lacking.

Betting Blurbs

  • Shanahan very hot or cold: The 49ers have only one winning season in Kyle Shanahan’s four years at the helm. They are 32-34-1 ATS overall since they hired him in 2017.
  • Road warriors: Despite their poor overall ATS record under Shanahan, the Niners have been effective on the road. They are 19-13 ATS in the last four seasons.
  • Detroit overs: The Lions are one of nine teams with a cumulatively profitable over record during the last three seasons at 26-22 (54.2%).
  • Favorite status issues: The 49ers were 2-6 SU and ATS in 2020 as a favorite. They posted a better record (4-4 SU) when getting points.

Season Outlook

We project a rebound for the 49ers, who have a 62% chance to make the playoffs and 32% chance to win the NFC West as the eighth-ranked team in our predictive ratings. The Lions seem more likely to land the first pick in the 2022 draft than a playoff spot, ranking 31st in our predictive ratings with a lowly 6% chance at a playoff berth.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: San Francisco (74.4% win odds)

Matchup
Point Spread Odds & Line Movement
Over/Under Odds & Line Movement
Injury Report
Head-to-Head Results History
Efficiency Stats
Stat Splits


11. Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Kansas City -6.5

News & Notes

Cleveland’s 2020 season ended at the hands of the Chiefs, who overcame QB Patrick Mahomes’ head injury to win 22-17 in the AFC divisional round. Will the Browns’ 2021 campaign start with a similar result, or can they pull off an early upset?

Cleveland Browns

The Browns’ 2020 season was a success despite the playoff loss to the Chiefs. New head coach Kevin Stefanski delivered the franchise’s first winning season since 2007 and first playoff appearance since 2002.

With a young, talented core, there is reason to believe Cleveland can keep ascending.

QB Baker Mayfield turned around his play last year with the help of Stefanski and an improved offensive line. Cleveland is also set to get WR Odell Beckham Jr. back from an ACL tear.

The Browns might boast the NFL’s best backfield with RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, which should cause Stefanski to remain run-heavy. The Browns had the league’s fourth-highest run percentage in 2020 at 47.8%.

The defense remains a work in progress despite great talent like DE Myles Garrett. However, Cleveland has gone a long way in helping with the additions of DE Jadeveon Clowney, MLB Anthony Walker, CB Troy Hill, and first-round CB Greg Newsome II.

If nothing else, the Browns’ defense has a fair share of young upside. That should give them hope after finishing no better than 20th in points allowed in each of the past six seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have advanced to three consecutive AFC Championship Games and two straight Super Bowls, so it’s no surprise that they remain one of the Vegas favorites to win the Super Bowl this year.

The Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers exposed a major blemish on the offensive line, as Mahomes was repeatedly forced to scramble for his life. The front office attempted to fix that this offseason by adding LT Orlando Brown, LG Joe Thuney, second-round OC Creed Humphrey and sixth-round RG Trey Smith.

The offensive line might need time to mesh with all of those newcomers, but all-world players Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Travis Kelce should make the job easier.

KC’s defense has also quietly ranked in the top 10 in points allowed in each of the last two seasons under DC Steve Spagnuolo. There’s some concern about the defensive line with DE Frank Clark’s legal trouble and the lack of depth behind him, but the interior is elite. DL Chris Jones leads the rotation at multiple spots along with newcomer DT Jarran Reed, and the second and third levels remain mostly intact.

Betting Blurbs

  • Reid’s Resurgence: The Chiefs are 78-60-3 (56.5%) ATS since hiring Andy Reid in 2013, the NFL’s third-best record over that time.
  • Browns against the number: Cleveland owns the second-worst ATS record since 2003 at 127-155-8 (45.0%), including an 8-10 ATS record last season.
  • Cleveland scoring volatility: The Browns had some extreme scoring performances in 2020, finishing more than 20 points off the over/under total in eight different games (six over, two under).

Season Outlook

The Chiefs enter the season as the No. 1 ranked team in our predictive ratings and have about a 15% chance to win the Super Bowl. Cleveland is formidable at No. 6, with a 64% chance to return to the playoffs as the projected second-place finisher in the AFC North behind the Ravens.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Kansas City (71.9% win odds)

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12. Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: New England -2.5

News & Notes

Miami and New England open the season against each other for the second year in a row. Both teams are turning to young quarterbacks and have different starters at that position than they did last year.

Miami Dolphins

After moving on from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins are all-in on second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Miami did go 6-3 in Tagovailoa’s starts last season, and it bolstered his receiving corps by signing WR Will Fuller V and drafting former Alabama teammate WR Jaylen Waddle at No. 6 overall. Fuller and Waddle will join DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, who is returning from a knee injury.

Miami’s defense miraculously improved from dead last to sixth in points allowed from 2019 to 2020. It hopes to keep on that track with additions like CBs Jason McCourty and Justin Coleman. The secondary was already among the best in the league with lockdown corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

New England Patriots

New England’s streak of 11 consecutive AFC East titles ended last year after numerous personnel losses, none of which were bigger than QB Tom Brady.

While the Patriots brought back QB Cam Newton in the preseason, they released him during final roster cuts and are going all-in on No. 15 overall pick Mac Jones. He’ll have vastly improved receiving options after New England splurged on WRs Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne as well as TEs Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry in free agency.

The defense also got some relief both in free agency and with multiple 2020 opt-outs returning to the field. LB Dont’a Hightower should immediately help the run defense, while free-agent signings OLB Matt Judon, DT Davon Godchaux, and LB Kyle Van Noy hope to make big impacts.

However, star cornerback Stephon Gilmore is starting the season on the PUP list and will be out for this one.

Betting Blurbs

  • Flourishing Flores: Miami has the NFL’s best ATS record since hiring Brian Flores in 2019 at 20-12 (62.5%).
  • Slow starts for the Hoodie: New England is 16-5 SU but only 10-11 ATS in season openers under Bill Belichick.
  • Rookie starters: Nine other rookie QBs drafted outside the Top 10 have started a season opener in the last 15 years. They are 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS in their debuts. But don’t draw too many quick conclusions, because the two non-covers were in games started by Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, arguably the two most successful in the longer term.

Season Outlook

The AFC East is up for grabs again, and both the Dolphins and Patriots are in the equation. New England has a 31% chance to win the division, trailing only Buffalo, and a 57% chance to make the playoffs with 9.6 wins, according to our projections. Miami is just behind the Pats with a 16% chance to win the division and a 38% chance to make the playoffs at 8.3 wins.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: New England (57.1% win odds)

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13. Denver Broncos at New York Giants

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Point Spread: Denver -2.5

News & Notes

The Broncos and Giants have made different decisions when it comes to their third-year quarterbacks. Denver has seemingly moved on from Drew Lock, while New York is giving Daniel Jones one more year to see what he can do.

Denver Broncos

Denver named veteran Teddy Bridgewater its starting quarterback after two lackluster seasons from Lock. Bridgewater has played steady football in his career for the Vikings, Saints, and Panthers, but he didn’t do enough last season to keep his job in Carolina.

No matter the starter, the Broncos have a strong supporting cast with receivers Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and TE Noah Fant. They also have a strong running back tandem with Melvin Gordon III and rookie Javonte Williams.

Head coach Vic Fangio needs the defense to turn things around soon, but he has a lot of help in that regard. Face-of-the-franchise OLB Von Miller is returning after missing 2020 due to an ankle injury.  Denver also revamped its secondary with first-round CB Pat Surtain II and free-agent signees such as CB Kyle Fuller, SS Kareem Jackson, and CB Ronald Darby.

New York Giants

The Giants have a clearer picture at quarterback with Jones entering his third season, but they could make changes soon if he doesn’t progress. The 2019 No. 6 overall pick has been a turnover machine in his first two seasons, with 22 interceptions and 29 fumbles in 27 games.

To help him, the Giants signed WR Kenny Golladay and TE Kyle Rudolph in free agency and spent their first-round pick on WR Kadarius Toney. They also have star RB Saquon Barkley returning from knee surgery, so anything close to last year’s 17.5 points per game won’t be acceptable.

The defense did improve last season, ranking ninth in points allowed, and the Giants made some notable additions with LB Ryan Anderson and CB Adoree’ Jackson. They fared particularly well in the red zone, ranking third in scoring percentage, but they face a challenge with an improved NFC East division.

Betting Blurbs

  • Pointless in NY: The Giants had a 3-13 over record in 2020, the lowest in the NFL.
  • Non-conference futility showdown: Denver is just 32-40-2 ATS in nonconference games since 2003. The Giants have the NFL’s worst nonconference ATS record over the last two years at 1-7, including 0-4 last season.

Season Outlook

The Broncos enter the year as our No. 18-ranked team, but they have only a 40% chance to make the playoffs behind the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West. The Giants are 25th in our predictive ratings, second-worst in the NFC East, and have a 28% chance of making the playoffs.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Denver (54.5% win odds)

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14. Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints in Jacksonville

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Point Spread: Green Bay -4.5

News & Notes

Two longtime NFC contenders will be facing off in Week 1. One will be in its first year without a future Hall of Famer, while the other will still have a Hall of Fame QB after a turbulent offseason. This game was moved from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, and will be played in Jacksonville, Florida.

Green Bay Packers

In April, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported QB Aaron Rodgers was “so disgruntled” with the Packers front office that he didn’t want to return to the team. They wound up revising his contract, which convinced him to show up for training camp.

The Packers managed to bring back most of last year’s roster, though the notable loss of All-Pro OC Corey Linsley could hurt the offensive line. They also patched up the secondary, where they were exposed in the playoffs, by drafting CB Eric Stokes in the first round.

Green Bay will be without veteran tackle David Bakhtiari, who starts the season on the PUP list.

New Orleans Saints

The Drew Brees era in New Orleans began after the team had spent the previous season in San Antonio following Hurricane Katrina. In their first game post-Brees, the Saints will again have to relocate to start the season after Hurricane Ida ravaged New Orleans.

Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill competed to replace Brees, and Winston won the starting gig. His job will be more difficult with star WR Michael Thomas out at least six weeks following ankle surgery.

The defense also took some hits this offseason, as it lost both DE Trey Hendrickson and CB Janoris Jenkins.The unit still has reason for optimism after improving to fifth-fewest points allowed in 2020 under coordinator Dennis Allen.

Betting Blurbs

  • Strong run under Payton: Although Sean Payton hasn’t coached every game since he joined the Saints in 2006, the team is 139-115-3 (54.7%) ATS during that time, third-best in the league.
  • LaFleur’s quick start: Green Bay is 28-8 SU and 22-14 ATS since hiring Matt LaFleur as head coach in 2019.

Season Outlook

The Packers are our fourth-ranked team and have a 74% chance to make the playoffs and 8% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Saints are 11th in the predictive ratings with a 46% chance to make the playoffs, trailing the Bucs in the NFC South.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Green Bay (66.8% win odds)

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15. Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

Game Time: Sunday, Sept. 12 at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Point Spread: LA Rams -7.5

News & Notes

The Week 1 Sunday night affair features two teams that made drastic changes at quarterback during the offseason. The Bears signed Andy Dalton and drafted former Ohio State QB Justin Fields, while the Rams moved on from Jared Goff and acquired former Lion Matthew Stafford.

Chicago Bears

Chicago fans were desperate for a promising, young signal-caller after four seasons of Mitchell Trubisky, but Dalton will start over Fields to begin the year.

The team’s offense has been near the bottom of the league in six of the last seven seasons, warranting the fans’ frustration. Head coach Matt Nagy figures to start Fields instead of Dalton at some point in 2021.

The Bears’ defensive regression is perhaps the bigger concern for their playoff hopes. The unit has gotten old quickly, ranking 14th in points allowed last season after being among the top 10 in each of the previous three years.

The Bears lost CB Kyle Fuller as well as some useful depth, so they’ll rely on their veteran core led by OLB Khalil Mack and DE Akiem Hicks to right the ship. The team also promoted assistant Sean Desai to defensive coordinator.

Los Angeles Rams

After ranking first in points scored in 2017 and second in 2018, the Rams offense fell all the way to 22nd last year. They’re hoping Stafford is the answer to their problems, though he never won a playoff game during his 12 seasons with Detroit.

The Rams have some questions on the offensive line entering the year, and they lost RB Cam Akers to a season-ending Achilles injury before training camp. They recently acquired RB Sony Michel from New England to bolster their backfield in the wake of Akers’ injury.

The biggest concern for the defense is on the sideline after coordinator Brandon Staley took the Chargers’ head coaching gig. Experienced coordinator Raheem Morris has big shoes to fill after the Rams went from 17th in points allowed in 2019 to first last season.

Superstars DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey continue to anchor the unit.

Betting Blurbs

  • McVay’s impact: The Rams have the NFL’s fourth-best ATS record since hiring Sean McVay in 2017 at 38-30-2 (55.9%).
  • Offensive downturn: The recent futility of LA’s offense is shown in their 13-21 over record during the last two seasons.
  • Bears as dogs: Under Nagy, the Bears are a respectable 12-12 ATS as a dog, but they’re only 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS when an underdog of six points or more. They averaged only 15.9 points in those games.

Season Outlook

Our projections don’t give Bears fans reason to be optimistic about 2021, as Chicago ranks 24th in our predictive ratings and has only a 27% chance to make the playoffs. The Rams rank seventh in our predictive ratings, but they have only 56% odds to make the playoffs in the often brutal NFC West.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: LA Rams (76.0% win odds)

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16. Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders

Game Time: Monday, Sept. 13 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Point Spread: Baltimore -4.5

News & Notes

Allegiant Stadium opened in Las Vegas last year to no fanfare, as the Raiders played in front of an empty stadium during their first season in Sin City. The Monday Night Football opener will be their first regular-season game in Las Vegas in front of fans.

Baltimore Ravens

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson did get off the hot seat by winning a playoff game last year, but Baltimore still failed to reach the Super Bowl. The 2019 NFL MVP is a remarkable 30-7 SU during the regular season, but he’s 1-3 in the playoffs.

The team worked to get him some help in the offseason by drafting WR Rashod Bateman in the first round and signing former Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins, adding to go-to receivers TE Mark Andrews and WR Marquise Brown. However, Bateman, Watkins, and Brown all missed time during the preseason, and the offense had a further setback when RB J.K. Dobbins suffered a torn ACL.

Despite Dobbins’ absence, the running game is likely to remain Baltimore’s focus. The Ravens averaged a league-best 5.6 yards per carry last year.

Baltimore’s defense has been consistently good for the past two decades. The Ravens have now ranked among the top three in fewest points allowed in three consecutive seasons.

No team has done a better job of developing pass-rushers in recent years, which is comforting after they lost OLB Matt Judon in free agency. OLB Tyus Bowser and first-round pick OLB Odafe Oweh will have to step up in Judon’s stead.

There’s also some concern with an older defensive line, led by DT Calais Campbell, but the front office and DC Don Martindale have earned the benefit of the doubt.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders had another eventful offseason. They replaced WR Nelson Agholor with WR John Brown (who later requested his own release) and traded offensive line stalwarts Rodney HudsonGabe Jackson, and Trent Brown.

The new offensive line is a concern for QB Derek Carr while young players RB Josh Jacobs, WR Henry Ruggs III, and WR Bryan Edwards continue to develop. The star of the offense is now TE Darren Waller, who has back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons.

The Raiders defense is an even bigger concern than the offense, as it ranked 30th in points allowed last season. The unit has ranked no better than 20th in points allowed since 2007, so it’s no coincidence that the team has only one playoff appearance over that span.

The Raiders are counting on new coordinator Gus Bradley to have a big impact. They made only a few impact moves in the offseason, including the signing of DE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Casey Hayward, and LB K.J. Wright.

Betting Blurbs

  • Gruden Grinders: The Raiders are only 19-29 SU and 22-26 ATS in Jon Gruden’s second stint with the team, which began in 2018.
  • Outside the West: Gruden’s team has been particularly bad against non-AFC West opponents, at 11-19 SU and ATS.
  • Shootouts: Las Vegas led the NFL with a 12-3-1 over record in 2020.
  • Road warriors: The Ravens are 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, with the only loss coming in Week 10 last year at New England.

Season Outlook

The Ravens enter the year No. 3 in our predictive ratings, with a 75% chance to make the playoffs and 9% chance to win the Super Bowl. They trail only Tampa Bay and Kansas City in Super Bowl win odds. The Raiders’ prospects aren’t nearly as optimistic, as they rank No. 22 with only a 25% chance of making the playoffs with 7.3 wins.

Computer Picks & More Analysis

TR Game Winner Pick: Baltimore (63.0% win odds)

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