NFL Week 3 Betting Picks, Upset Picks & Analysis (2024)

From game picks to teasers, touchdown props, and moneyline underdogs, our NFL Week 3 betting and upset picks article has you covered.

September 19, 2024 - by Jason Lisk

Welcome to our NFL Week 3 betting and upset picks article.

This article is available to premium subscribers (or free trial subscribers). We will post a new article every week and add content segments throughout the week.

When a new segment is published or updated, we will add it to the link list below.

Week 3 Betting & Upset Picks: Published Content

Thu: Jets vs. Patriots Analysis
Thoughts on the Jets vs. Patriots rivalry game.

Thu: College Football Picks
A review of some of our top CFB model picks for the week.

Thu: Fading the Public
A cross-over looking into our public pool pick data.

Wed: Bonus! Saints Deep Dive
A statistical dive into teams that get off to hot starts.

Wed: Week 3 Injury News
Key situations that could lead to line movement.

Wed: Week 3 Upset Picks
Our three favorite underdog moneyline picks.

Tue: Teaser Tuesdays
Our favorite early teaser plays for NFL Week 3.

Mon: Early Picks to Consider
Some early betting lines that caught our interest.

Mon: Week 2 Betting Recap
Key notes about the previous week and some interesting data.

Week 3 Betting & Upset Picks: Upcoming Content

Fri: Chasing Touchdowns, Week 3
Our favorite TD props for Sunday’s games.

Fri: Sunday Supplements
Late-week adds to the picks as we look to Sunday.

Mon: MNF Doubleheader Analysis
Week 3 has two Monday matchups: Bills-Jags and Bengals-Commanders.

 

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Thu Sep 19

Jets vs. Patriots Analysis

The Jets and Patriots both come into this Thursday Night matchup at 1-1, hoping to keep pace with Buffalo in the AFC East.

Where Our Models Stand on the Key Lines

Spread: NY Jets -6. This game had been at -6.5 most of the week but has ticked down slightly on Thursday. Our models give a slight lean to New England, but not playable above the 52.3% cover line.

Total: 38.5 points. Our models have a lean to the Under in this game, but also below the playable cut line.

Moneyline: -275 NY Jets/ +230 New England. We do not have a playable pick on the moneyline in our models, though again, the lean is toward the underdog Patriots.

Key News and Notes

• This has been a rivalry with very little home field advantage, and one largely dominated by the Patriots recently (of course, the QB situations are a little different now). The Jets are 4-18 SU against the Pats at both home and away since 2002 in the regular season, but are 8-14 ATS at home, versus 10-11-1 ATS in Foxboro.
• The last time the Jets won as a favorite against the Patriots was on September 23, 2001 at New England, in the famous game where Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady replaced him. You can see the full series history using our Custom Trends Tool search.
• The Patriots are coming off an overtime loss at home to Seattle on Sunday. Here’s a note from Ralph Michaels that teams playing on short rest following an overtime game are 3-22 ATS since 2022.

Player Prop Notes