NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHAR MEM
Points 70.6 74.4
Total Points   145.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 20.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.2
Shooting CHAR MEM
Field Goals Made 24.2 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 58.4
Field Goal % 43.4% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 21.0
Free Throw % 75.2% 72.7%
Ball Control CHAR MEM
Rebounds 32.4 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 12.0
Turnovers 11.0 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.7
Steals 5.0 7.1
Fouls 15.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHAR MEM
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 71.3
% of Possessions with CHAR MEM
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 25.8%
Player Fouled 22.2% 21.9%
Turnover 16.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHAR MEM
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 34.1%