NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCAT CAMP
Points 66.9 73.7
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 23.2
Points From Free Throws 10.8 12.5
Shooting NCAT CAMP
Field Goals Made 24.6 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 56.0
Field Goal % 40.7% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.1% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 10.8 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 17.4
Free Throw % 70.8% 71.6%
Ball Control NCAT CAMP
Rebounds 33.7 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 7.5
Turnovers 8.3 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.0
Steals 5.5 4.5
Fouls 13.6 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Campbell

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCAT CAMP
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 66.3
% of Possessions with NCAT CAMP
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 19.3% 19.8%
Turnover 12.0% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCAT CAMP
Shot Blocked 3.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 23.5%